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Online trends Analysis
Francesc Gomez-Morales
@francescgo
francescgo@gmail.com
me.francescgo.com
#itnigfridays	
  
WHO	
  AM	
  I?	
  
Analy/cal	
  Heart	
  &	
  Mashup	
  Mind	
  
2007	
   2008	
   2009	
   2010	
   2011	
   2012	
   2013	
  
LET’S	
  ASSUME	
  YOU	
  KNOW	
  WHAT	
  
YOU’RE	
  TALKING	
  ABOUT…	
  
Web	
  is	
  about	
  measurement	
  
Too	
  many	
  things	
  to	
  measure	
  
Gatorade	
  Mission	
  Control	
  
A	
  framework	
  proposal	
  	
  
(from	
  a	
  marke/ng	
  perspec/ve)	
  
hBp://www.flickr.com/photos/nocallerid_man/	
  
Web	
  Analysis	
  Framework	
  (Marke/ng	
  perspec/ve)	
  
On-­‐site	
  
Owned	
  Media	
  
Web	
  Page	
  
“Web	
  
Ana...
Let’s	
  focus	
  on	
  trends	
  
hBp://www.flickr.com/photos/20116729@N00/	
  
What	
  the	
  trend?	
  
A	
  trend	
  (fad)	
  is	
  any	
  form	
  of	
  behavior	
  that	
  	
  
develops	
  among	
  ...
WHY	
  TRENDS	
  &	
  MEMES	
  ARE	
  NOW	
  
SO	
  TRENDING?	
  
Thank	
  you,	
  Tim	
  Berners-­‐Lee	
  
Massive	
  adopYon	
  of	
  online	
  services	
  has	
  contributed	
  to	
  th...
Key	
  technological	
  innova/ons	
  (IMHO)	
  
hep://www.flickr.com/photos/rishibiswas/	
  
Rich	
  Internet	
  Applica/o...
The	
  biggest	
  Social	
  Graph	
  	
  
in	
  human	
  history	
  
One	
  graph	
  to	
  rule	
  them	
  all!	
  
Visualize	
  your	
  own	
  graph	
  
heps://apps.facebook.com/touchgraph/	
  
TALKING	
  ABOUT	
  TRENDS	
  IS	
  
TALKING	
  ABOUT	
  PEOPLE	
  
People	
  and	
  trends	
  
Diffusion	
  of	
  Innova/ons,	
  5th	
  Edi/on	
  
Everee	
  M.	
  Rogers	
  
2003	
  
Social	
  Technographics	
  
•  Trends	
  are	
  generated	
  by	
  
people’s	
  ac/vity	
  
•  Social	
  Technographics	
...
People	
  and	
  trends	
  	
  >	
  Social	
  Technographics	
  
Forrester	
  Ladder	
  
Differences	
  between	
  countries	
  
People	
  and	
  trends	
  	
  >	
  Social	
  Technographics	
  
Different	
  between	
  Ages	
  
People	
  and	
  trends	
  	
  >	
  Social	
  Technographics	
  
all	
  animals	
  are	
  equal…	
  
People	
  and	
  trends	
  	
  >	
  Influence	
  
…	
  but	
  some	
  animals	
  are	
 ...
klout	
  
People	
  and	
  trends	
  	
  >	
  Influence	
  
hep://klout.com/	
  
klout	
  
People	
  and	
  trends	
  	
  >	
  Influence	
  
hep://klout.com/#/topic/social-­‐media	
  
SOURCES	
  OF	
  TRENDS	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  
•  Every	
  single	
  ac/vity	
  on	
  the	
  web	
  is	
  registered	
  
and	
  could	
  be	
...
Sources	
  of	
  trends:	
  	
  
classifica/on	
  by	
  user	
  ac/vity	
  
	
  Creators	
  
	
  Conversa/onalists	
  
Cri/...
Ranking	
  of	
  the	
  main	
  social	
  networking	
  sites	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Visits/Pageviews	
  of	
...
Top	
  sites	
  in	
  spain	
  -­‐	
  Sept	
  14,	
  2013	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Visits/Pageviews	
  of	
  we...
Top	
  sites	
  by	
  niche	
  
hep://www.alexa.com/topsites/category/Top/Sports/Table_Tennis	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	...
heps://adwords.google.com/da/DisplayPlanner	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Visits/Pageviews	
  of	
  websites/content...
Youtube	
  Consump/on	
  in	
  Spain	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Visits/Pageviews	
  of	
  websites/content	
  	
 ...
hep://youtube.com/trendsmap	
  	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Visits/Pageviews	
  of	
  websites/content	
  	
  
hep://www.youtube.com/trendsdashboard	
  	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Visits/Pageviews	
  of	
  websites/content	
...
hep://google.com/trends/explore	
  	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Use	
  of	
  keywords	
  in	
  search	
  engines	
...
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Use	
  of	
  keywords	
  in	
  search	
  engines	
  
hep://google.com/trends/explore	
  	
...
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Use	
  of	
  keywords	
  in	
  search	
  engines	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Use	
  of	
  keywords	
  in	
  search	
  engines	
  
hep://appannie.com/matrix	
  	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Installa/on	
  of	
  mobile	
  apps	
  	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Installa/on	
  of	
  mobile	
  apps	
  	
  
hep://appfigures.com/reports/ranking	
  	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Installa/on	
  of	
  mobile	
  apps	
  	
  
No se puede mostrar la imagen. Puede que su equipo no tenga suficiente memoria para abrir la imagen o que ésta esté dañada....
hep://www.appdata.com/	
  	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Use	
  of	
  social	
  games	
  or	
  social	
  apps	
  
hep://www.appdata.com/	
  	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Use	
  of	
  social	
  games	
  or	
  social	
  apps	
  
Top10	
  stories	
  of	
  the	
  day	
  (From	
  May	
  24,	
  2007	
  to	
  May	
  23,	
  2008)	
  
Sources	
  of	
  tren...
hep://www.socialbakers.com/facebook-­‐pages/celebri/es/spain/	
  	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Social	
  support	
 ...
hep://www.socialbakers.com/facebook-­‐pages/celebri/es/spain/	
  	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Social	
  support	
 ...
hep://www.socialbakers.com/facebook-­‐pages/7703918541-­‐internet-­‐explorer	
  	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Socia...
hep://www.pagedatapro.com/pages/leaderboard/tac/tac_wg	
  	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Social	
  support	
  of	
  ...
hep://es.favstar.fm/all-­‐/me-­‐most-­‐favorited-­‐tweets	
  	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Support	
  and/or	
  Dif...
hep://es.favstar.fm/all-­‐/me-­‐most-­‐retweeted-­‐tweets	
  	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Support	
  and/or	
  Dif...
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Support	
  and/or	
  Difussion	
  of	
  content	
  
hep://monitor.wildfireapp.com/count_rep...
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Support	
  and/or	
  Difussion	
  of	
  content	
  
hep://twtrland.com/	
  	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Find	
  Places	
  and	
  Check-­‐in	
  
hep://www.4sqmap.com	
  	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Use	
  of	
  keywords	
  in	
  Twieer	
  
hep://trendsmap.com/	
  	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Use	
  of	
  keywords	
  in	
  Twieer	
  
hep://trends24.appb.in/barcelona	
  	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Use	
  of	
  keywords	
  in	
  Twieer	
  
hep://whaehetrend.com/top10	
  	
  
The	
  business	
  of	
  trends	
  
heps://blog.twieer.com/2013/study-­‐the-­‐value-­‐of-­‐promoted-­‐trends	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Contribu/ons	
  to	
  open	
  source	
  projects	
  or	
  wikis	
  
hep://artzub.com/ghv/#...
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Contribu/ons	
  to	
  open	
  source	
  projects	
  or	
  wikis	
  
heps://github.com/twbs...
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Contribu/ons	
  to	
  open	
  source	
  projects	
  or	
  wikis	
  
heps://github.com/twbs...
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Contribu/ons	
  to	
  open	
  source	
  projects	
  or	
  wikis	
  
heps://github.com/twbs...
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Contribu/ons	
  to	
  open	
  source	
  projects	
  or	
  wikis	
  
hep://notabilia.net/	
...
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Contribu/ons	
  to	
  open	
  source	
  projects	
  or	
  wikis	
  
hep://gigapan.com/giga...
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >	
  Contribu/ons	
  to	
  open	
  source	
  projects	
  or	
  wikis	
  
hep://wikiproject.oii....
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >Adop/on	
  of	
  technology	
  
hep://trends.builtwith.com	
  	
  
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >Adop/on	
  of	
  technology	
  
hep://trends.builtwith.com/analy/cs	
  	
  
Top	
  10k	
  webs...
Sources	
  of	
  trends	
  >Adop/on	
  of	
  technology	
  
heps://trends.builtwith.com/widgets/Facebook-­‐Like	
  	
  
TREND	
  DYNAMICS	
  
Meme/cs	
  
Cultural	
  traits	
  are	
  transmieed	
  from	
  person	
  to	
  
person,	
  similarly	
  to	
  genes	
  or	...
Meme	
  
Cultural	
  replicator;	
  a	
  unit	
  of	
  imita/on	
  or	
  
communica/on	
  	
  
Trend	
  Dynamics	
  >	
  M...
Memeplex	
  
Collec/on	
  of	
  mutually	
  
suppor/ng	
  memes,	
  
which	
  tend	
  to	
  replicate	
  
together	
  
Tre...
Memes	
  and	
  trends	
  
Trend	
  Dynamics	
  >	
  Meme/cs	
  
Memes	
  
Trends	
  
Meme	
  Dynamics	
  
Trend	
  Dynamics	
  >	
  Meme/cs	
  
Assimila/on	
  
• No/ce	
  
• Understand	
  
• Acceptance	
  
R...
Meme	
  Dynamics	
  
Trend	
  Dynamics	
  >	
  Meme/cs	
  
Assimila/on	
  
Reten/on	
  
Expression	
  
Transmission	
  
Me...
The	
  anatomy	
  of	
  a	
  (Twieer)	
  trend	
  
Main	
  takeaways:	
  
•  the	
  resonance	
  of	
  the	
  content	
  w...
The	
  way	
  the	
  trends	
  dissipate	
  	
  
fits	
  a	
  normal	
  distribu/on	
  
16.32	
  million	
  tweets	
  on	
 ...
The	
  decay	
  factor	
  of	
  a	
  trend	
  is	
  1/t	
  
Trend	
  Dynamics	
  >	
  Twieer	
  Trending	
  Topics	
  >	
 ...
Almost	
  every	
  trending	
  topic	
  is	
  short	
  
Trend	
  Dynamics	
  >	
  Twieer	
  Trending	
  Topics	
  >	
  The...
Strong	
  rela/on	
  between	
  influencers	
  
and	
  trending	
  topics	
  
Rela/on	
  between	
  authors	
  and	
  ac/vi...
Twieer	
  doesn’t	
  generate	
  news,	
  	
  
but	
  does	
  filter	
  them	
  
Social	
  media,	
  far	
  from	
  
being	...
(Twieer)	
  Informa/on	
  diffusion	
  
Main	
  takeaways:	
  
•  the	
  resonance	
  of	
  the	
  content	
  with	
  the	
...
Very	
  few	
  people	
  follow	
  
or	
  are	
  followed	
  by	
  many	
  users	
  
15	
  million	
  URLs	
  exchanged	
 ...
Twieer	
  is	
  a	
  small	
  world	
  
15	
  million	
  URLs	
  exchanged	
  among	
  2.7	
  million	
  users	
  over	
  ...
The	
  majority	
  of	
  users	
  has	
  low	
  ac/vity	
  
Trend	
  Dynamics	
  >	
  Twieer	
  Trending	
  Topics	
  >	
 ...
The	
  majority	
  of	
  URLs	
  	
  
have	
  no	
  resonance	
  
If	
  your	
  URL	
  appears	
  in	
  
10	
  different	
 ...
Only	
  a	
  very	
  few	
  tweets	
  has	
  several	
  
cascades	
  of	
  retweets	
  
RT-­‐cascades	
  	
  
(the	
  user...
How	
  big	
  are	
  subcascades?	
  
For	
  each	
  cascade	
  
the	
  subcascades	
  not	
  
only	
  vary	
  in	
  numbe...
If	
  your	
  tweet	
  is	
  interes/ng	
  is	
  more	
  
likely	
  that	
  I	
  will	
  follow	
  you	
  
The	
  distance...
The	
  more	
  users,	
  	
  
the	
  bigger	
  the	
  subcascades	
  
The	
  URLs	
  tweeted	
  by	
  the	
  highly	
  
co...
How	
  long	
  takes	
  to	
  make	
  a	
  RT?	
  
The	
  diffusion	
  delay	
  taken	
  across	
  
all	
  the	
  (u,	
  i)...
TREND	
  PARAMETRIZATION	
  
Trending	
  Topic	
  Classifica/on	
  
Trend	
  Parametriza/on	
  
TwiBer	
  Trending	
  Topic	
  ClassificaYon	
  	
  
Kath...
Classifica/on	
  Tecniques	
  
Trend	
  Parametriza/on	
  
Comparison	
  of	
  
classifica/on	
  
accuracy	
  using	
  
diffe...
Classifica/on	
  Tecniques	
  
Trend	
  Parametriza/on	
  
Comparison	
  of	
  
classifica/on	
  
accuracy	
  using	
  
diffe...
 
“Online	
  Trends	
  Analysis”	
  	
  
by	
  Francesc	
  Gómez	
  Morales	
  	
  
is	
  licensed	
  under	
  a	
  	
  
C...
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Online Trends Analysis - itnig friday

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Almost everybody knows what an internet meme is. But what most people don't know is that there's a science behind memes and internet trends. What's the definition of meme? How does it propagate and why? How and where can we find trending memes? What are the key properties for a successful meme? And most important... where to find them?

Published in: Technology, Business

Transcript of "Online Trends Analysis - itnig friday"

  1. 1. Online trends Analysis Francesc Gomez-Morales @francescgo francescgo@gmail.com me.francescgo.com #itnigfridays  
  2. 2. WHO  AM  I?  
  3. 3. Analy/cal  Heart  &  Mashup  Mind   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013  
  4. 4. LET’S  ASSUME  YOU  KNOW  WHAT   YOU’RE  TALKING  ABOUT…  
  5. 5. Web  is  about  measurement  
  6. 6. Too  many  things  to  measure   Gatorade  Mission  Control  
  7. 7. A  framework  proposal     (from  a  marke/ng  perspec/ve)   hBp://www.flickr.com/photos/nocallerid_man/  
  8. 8. Web  Analysis  Framework  (Marke/ng  perspec/ve)   On-­‐site   Owned  Media   Web  Page   “Web   Analysis”   Google   Analy/cs  /   Kissmetrics  /   CrazyEgg  (…)   Social  Media   and  other   Public  Profiles   “Social  Media   Analysis”   Facebook   insights  /   SocialBro  /   Bit.ly  (…)   Off-­‐site   Compe/tors  owned   media   Web  Page   Web   Compe//ve   Intelligence   Alexa  /   Compete  /   Builtwith   Social  Media   and  other   Public  Profiles   Social  Media   Compe//ve   Intelligence   SocialBakers  /   DKS  Social   Smart   Consumers   media   Web  Pages   and  Social   Media  Profiles   Web   Monitoring  or   netnography   Radian6  /   Brandchats  /   Websays  /   Google  Trends   Search  Engines   Organic   SERP   Monitoring   SEOmoz  /  Link   Assistant  /   Raventools   Paid   PPC   Campaigns   Monitoring   Semrush  /   Wordstream  
  9. 9. Let’s  focus  on  trends   hBp://www.flickr.com/photos/20116729@N00/  
  10. 10. What  the  trend?   A  trend  (fad)  is  any  form  of  behavior  that     develops  among  a  large  popula/on  and     is  collec/vely  followed  with  enthusiasm     for  some  period     (generally  as  a  result  of  the  behavior's     being  perceived  as  novel  in  some  way)   Sociology  in  a  Changing  World   By  William  Kornblum,  Carolyn  D.  (COL)  Smith   Page  213  
  11. 11. WHY  TRENDS  &  MEMES  ARE  NOW   SO  TRENDING?  
  12. 12. Thank  you,  Tim  Berners-­‐Lee   Massive  adopYon  of  online  services  has  contributed  to  the     unique  and  unprecedented  possibility  of     register  and  analyze  micro-­‐trends     in  almost-­‐real-­‐Yme   hep://www.flickr.com/photos/rishibiswas/  
  13. 13. Key  technological  innova/ons  (IMHO)   hep://www.flickr.com/photos/rishibiswas/   Rich  Internet  Applica/ons  (RIA)   ex.  Use  of  javascript   Web-­‐oriented  Arquitecture   (WOA)   Apache  Hadoop  +  MapReduce  +   Google  File  System  
  14. 14. The  biggest  Social  Graph     in  human  history   One  graph  to  rule  them  all!  
  15. 15. Visualize  your  own  graph   heps://apps.facebook.com/touchgraph/  
  16. 16. TALKING  ABOUT  TRENDS  IS   TALKING  ABOUT  PEOPLE  
  17. 17. People  and  trends   Diffusion  of  Innova/ons,  5th  Edi/on   Everee  M.  Rogers   2003  
  18. 18. Social  Technographics   •  Trends  are  generated  by   people’s  ac/vity   •  Social  Technographics  classifies   people  according  to  how  they   use  social  technologies   •  Forrester's  Social   Technographics  data  classifies   consumers  into  seven   overlapping  levels  of  social   technology  par/cipa/on   People  and  trends    >  Social  Technographics   hep://empowered.forrester.com/ladder2010/  
  19. 19. People  and  trends    >  Social  Technographics   Forrester  Ladder  
  20. 20. Differences  between  countries   People  and  trends    >  Social  Technographics  
  21. 21. Different  between  Ages   People  and  trends    >  Social  Technographics  
  22. 22. all  animals  are  equal…   People  and  trends    >  Influence   …  but  some  animals  are  more  equal  than  others  
  23. 23. klout   People  and  trends    >  Influence   hep://klout.com/  
  24. 24. klout   People  and  trends    >  Influence   hep://klout.com/#/topic/social-­‐media  
  25. 25. SOURCES  OF  TRENDS  
  26. 26. Sources  of  trends   •  Every  single  ac/vity  on  the  web  is  registered   and  could  be  analyzed   •  Different  ac/vi/es,  different  sources  of  trends   •  The  more  “passive”  behaviour,  the  easiest   analysis.  Analyze  Visits  is  simplier  than  analyze   blog  posts.  
  27. 27. Sources  of  trends:     classifica/on  by  user  ac/vity    Creators    Conversa/onalists   Cri/cs   Collectors   Joiners   Espectators   Inac/ves  Forrester  Ladder  
  28. 28. Ranking  of  the  main  social  networking  sites   Sources  of  trends  >  Visits/Pageviews  of  websites/content    
  29. 29. Top  sites  in  spain  -­‐  Sept  14,  2013   Sources  of  trends  >  Visits/Pageviews  of  websites/content    
  30. 30. Top  sites  by  niche   hep://www.alexa.com/topsites/category/Top/Sports/Table_Tennis   Sources  of  trends  >  Visits/Pageviews  of  websites/content    
  31. 31. heps://adwords.google.com/da/DisplayPlanner   Sources  of  trends  >  Visits/Pageviews  of  websites/content    
  32. 32. Youtube  Consump/on  in  Spain   Sources  of  trends  >  Visits/Pageviews  of  websites/content     hep://www.socialbakers.com/youtube-­‐sta/s/cs/country/spain/  
  33. 33. hep://youtube.com/trendsmap     Sources  of  trends  >  Visits/Pageviews  of  websites/content    
  34. 34. hep://www.youtube.com/trendsdashboard     Sources  of  trends  >  Visits/Pageviews  of  websites/content    
  35. 35. hep://google.com/trends/explore     Sources  of  trends  >  Use  of  keywords  in  search  engines  
  36. 36. Sources  of  trends  >  Use  of  keywords  in  search  engines   hep://google.com/trends/explore    
  37. 37. Sources  of  trends  >  Use  of  keywords  in  search  engines  
  38. 38. Sources  of  trends  >  Use  of  keywords  in  search  engines  
  39. 39. hep://appannie.com/matrix     Sources  of  trends  >  Installa/on  of  mobile  apps    
  40. 40. Sources  of  trends  >  Installa/on  of  mobile  apps    
  41. 41. hep://appfigures.com/reports/ranking     Sources  of  trends  >  Installa/on  of  mobile  apps    
  42. 42. No se puede mostrar la imagen. Puede que su equipo no tenga suficiente memoria para abrir la imagen o que ésta esté dañada. Reinicie el equipo y, a continuación, abra el archivo de nuevo. Si sigue apareciendo la x roja, puede que tenga que borrar la imagen e insertarla de nuevo. Sources  of  trends  >  Installa/on  of  mobile  apps     hep://appfigures.com/reports/reviews      
  43. 43. hep://www.appdata.com/     Sources  of  trends  >  Use  of  social  games  or  social  apps  
  44. 44. hep://www.appdata.com/     Sources  of  trends  >  Use  of  social  games  or  social  apps  
  45. 45. Top10  stories  of  the  day  (From  May  24,  2007  to  May  23,  2008)   Sources  of  trends  >  News  aggregators  ac/vity   hep://www.chrisharrison.net/index.php/Visualiza/ons/DiggRings    
  46. 46. hep://www.socialbakers.com/facebook-­‐pages/celebri/es/spain/     Sources  of  trends  >  Social  support  of  profiles   Celebri/es  in  Facebook  (Spain)  
  47. 47. hep://www.socialbakers.com/facebook-­‐pages/celebri/es/spain/     Sources  of  trends  >  Social  support  of  profiles   Poli/cs  in  Twieer  (Spain)  
  48. 48. hep://www.socialbakers.com/facebook-­‐pages/7703918541-­‐internet-­‐explorer     Sources  of  trends  >  Social  support  of  profiles  
  49. 49. hep://www.pagedatapro.com/pages/leaderboard/tac/tac_wg     Sources  of  trends  >  Social  support  of  profiles  
  50. 50. hep://es.favstar.fm/all-­‐/me-­‐most-­‐favorited-­‐tweets     Sources  of  trends  >  Support  and/or  Difussion  of  content  
  51. 51. hep://es.favstar.fm/all-­‐/me-­‐most-­‐retweeted-­‐tweets     Sources  of  trends  >  Support  and/or  Difussion  of  content  
  52. 52. Sources  of  trends  >  Support  and/or  Difussion  of  content   hep://monitor.wildfireapp.com/count_reports/display?facebook    
  53. 53. Sources  of  trends  >  Support  and/or  Difussion  of  content   hep://twtrland.com/    
  54. 54. Sources  of  trends  >  Find  Places  and  Check-­‐in   hep://www.4sqmap.com    
  55. 55. Sources  of  trends  >  Use  of  keywords  in  Twieer   hep://trendsmap.com/    
  56. 56. Sources  of  trends  >  Use  of  keywords  in  Twieer   hep://trends24.appb.in/barcelona    
  57. 57. Sources  of  trends  >  Use  of  keywords  in  Twieer   hep://whaehetrend.com/top10    
  58. 58. The  business  of  trends   heps://blog.twieer.com/2013/study-­‐the-­‐value-­‐of-­‐promoted-­‐trends  
  59. 59. Sources  of  trends  >  Contribu/ons  to  open  source  projects  or  wikis   hep://artzub.com/ghv/#repo=jquery&user=jquery    
  60. 60. Sources  of  trends  >  Contribu/ons  to  open  source  projects  or  wikis   heps://github.com/twbs/bootstrap/contributors    
  61. 61. Sources  of  trends  >  Contribu/ons  to  open  source  projects  or  wikis   heps://github.com/twbs/bootstrap/graphs/code-­‐frequency    
  62. 62. Sources  of  trends  >  Contribu/ons  to  open  source  projects  or  wikis   heps://github.com/twbs/bootstrap/graphs/punch-­‐card    
  63. 63. Sources  of  trends  >  Contribu/ons  to  open  source  projects  or  wikis   hep://notabilia.net/     Top  100  most  controversial  ar/cles  in  English  Wikipedia  
  64. 64. Sources  of  trends  >  Contribu/ons  to  open  source  projects  or  wikis   hep://gigapan.com/gigapans/4277     Top  100  most  controversial  ar/cles  in  English  Wikipedia  
  65. 65. Sources  of  trends  >  Contribu/ons  to  open  source  projects  or  wikis   hep://wikiproject.oii.ox.ac.uk/mapping_wikipedia     Number  of  words  of  english  geolocated  Wikipedia  ar/cles  
  66. 66. Sources  of  trends  >Adop/on  of  technology   hep://trends.builtwith.com    
  67. 67. Sources  of  trends  >Adop/on  of  technology   hep://trends.builtwith.com/analy/cs     Top  10k  websites   Top  1M  websites  
  68. 68. Sources  of  trends  >Adop/on  of  technology   heps://trends.builtwith.com/widgets/Facebook-­‐Like    
  69. 69. TREND  DYNAMICS  
  70. 70. Meme/cs   Cultural  traits  are  transmieed  from  person  to   person,  similarly  to  genes  or  viruses.       Cultural  evolu/on  therefore  can  be  understood   through  the  same  basic  mechanisms  of   reproduc/on,  spread,  varia/on,  and  natural   selec/on  that  underlie  biological  evolu/on.   Trend  Dynamics  >  Meme/cs   Cultural  EvoluYon  and  MemeYcs   Francis  Heylighen  &  Klaas  Chielens   hep://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/Papers/Meme/cs-­‐Springer.pdf  
  71. 71. Meme   Cultural  replicator;  a  unit  of  imita/on  or   communica/on     Trend  Dynamics  >  Meme/cs  >  Meme   The  Selfish  Gene  (2nd  ediYon)   Dawkins,  R.     (1989)  Oxford  University  Press.   1. Longevity   2. Fecundity   3. Copying-­‐Fidelity  
  72. 72. Memeplex   Collec/on  of  mutually   suppor/ng  memes,   which  tend  to  replicate   together   Trend  Dynamics  >  Meme/cs  >  Memeplex   Cultural  EvoluYon  and  MemeYcs   Francis  Heylighen  &  Klaas  Chielens   hep://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/Papers/Meme/cs-­‐Springer.pdf  
  73. 73. Memes  and  trends   Trend  Dynamics  >  Meme/cs   Memes   Trends  
  74. 74. Meme  Dynamics   Trend  Dynamics  >  Meme/cs   Assimila/on   • No/ce   • Understand   • Acceptance   Reten/on   • longevity   Expression   • Speech   • Text   • …   Transmission   • Internet   • Mass  Media  
  75. 75. Meme  Dynamics   Trend  Dynamics  >  Meme/cs   Assimila/on   Reten/on   Expression   Transmission   Meme  Fitness  
  76. 76. The  anatomy  of  a  (Twieer)  trend   Main  takeaways:   •  the  resonance  of  the  content  with  the  users  of  the  social  network  plays  a   major  role  in  causing  trends   •  a  majority  of  the  content  propagated  to  cause  trends  arise  from  tradi/onal   media  sources   Trend  Dynamics  >  Twieer  Trending  Topics  >  The  anatomy  of  a  trend  
  77. 77. The  way  the  trends  dissipate     fits  a  normal  distribu/on   16.32  million  tweets  on  3361  different  topics  over  40  days  in  Sep-­‐Oct  2010   Trend  Dynamics  >  Twieer  Trending  Topics  >  The  anatomy  of  a  trend  
  78. 78. The  decay  factor  of  a  trend  is  1/t   Trend  Dynamics  >  Twieer  Trending  Topics  >  The  anatomy  of  a  trend   Example       A  trending  topic  with  10.000  tweets/hour   How  many  tweets  will  have  axer  5  hours?     N(t=0)  =  10.000  tweets   t  =  5  hours     N(t=5)  =  N(t=0)·∙[1/t]  =   =  10.000  ·∙  1/5  =  2000  tweets  
  79. 79. Almost  every  trending  topic  is  short   Trend  Dynamics  >  Twieer  Trending  Topics  >  The  anatomy  of  a  trend  
  80. 80. Strong  rela/on  between  influencers   and  trending  topics   Rela/on  between  authors  and  ac/vity:   •  No  propagaYon,  no  trend     Correla/on  between  number  of  unique  authors   with  the  dura/on  (0.8)   •  No  people  retweeYng,  no  trend   The  number  of  retweets  for  a  topic  correlates   very  strongly  (0.96)  with  the  trend  dura/on   •  Many  influencers,  longer  trends   Nega/ve  correla/on  of  −0.19  between  the   domina/on-­‐ra/o  of  a  topic  to  its  trending   dura/on     (The  domina/on-­‐ra/o  for  a  topic  can  be  defined  as  the  frac/on  of  the  retweets  of   that  topic  that  can  be  aeributed  to  the  largest  contribu/ng  user  for  that  topic)   Trend  Dynamics  >  Twieer  Trending  Topics  >  The  anatomy  of  a  trend  
  81. 81. Twieer  doesn’t  generate  news,     but  does  filter  them   Social  media,  far  from   being  an  alternate  source   of  news,  func/ons  more   as  a  filter  and  an  amplifier   for  interes/ng  news  from   tradi/onal  media   Trend  Dynamics  >  Twieer  Trending  Topics  >  The  anatomy  of  a  trend  
  82. 82. (Twieer)  Informa/on  diffusion   Main  takeaways:   •  the  resonance  of  the  content  with  the  users  of  the  social  network  plays  a   major  role  in  causing  trends   •  a  majority  of  the  content  propagated  to  cause  trends  arise  from  tradi/onal   media  sources   Trend  Dynamics  >  Twieer  Trending  Topics  >  Informa/on  Diffusion  
  83. 83. Very  few  people  follow   or  are  followed  by  many  users   15  million  URLs  exchanged  among  2.7  million  users  over  a  300  hour  period   Both  the  in-­‐degree   (followers)  and  the  out-­‐ degree  (followee)   distribu/ons  have  /ght   log-­‐normal  fits   Trend  Dynamics  >  Twieer  Trending  Topics  >  Informa/on  Diffusion  
  84. 84. Twieer  is  a  small  world   15  million  URLs  exchanged  among  2.7  million  users  over  a  300  hour  period   Twieer  graph  is  a   small  world  with  a   mean  directed  path   length  of  3.61   Trend  Dynamics  >  Twieer  Trending  Topics  >  Informa/on  Diffusion  
  85. 85. The  majority  of  users  has  low  ac/vity   Trend  Dynamics  >  Twieer  Trending  Topics  >  Informa/on  Diffusion  
  86. 86. The  majority  of  URLs     have  no  resonance   If  your  URL  appears  in   10  different  users,   then  it's  more  popular   than  99.9%  of  the  rest   of  URL  tweeted   Trend  Dynamics  >  Twieer  Trending  Topics  >  Informa/on  Diffusion  
  87. 87. Only  a  very  few  tweets  has  several   cascades  of  retweets   RT-­‐cascades     (the  user  men/ons  the   source)     F-­‐cascades     (the  user  men/ons  the   source  and  is  its  follower)     Each  cascade  consists  of  one   or  more  subcascades.  The   number  of  subcascades   per  cascade  is  power-­‐law   distributed   Trend  Dynamics  >  Twieer  Trending  Topics  >  Informa/on  Diffusion  
  88. 88. How  big  are  subcascades?   For  each  cascade   the  subcascades  not   only  vary  in  number,   but  also  in  size.   Trend  Dynamics  >  Twieer  Trending  Topics  >  Informa/on  Diffusion  
  89. 89. If  your  tweet  is  interes/ng  is  more   likely  that  I  will  follow  you   The  distances  to  the  root  are   short,  even  when  compared   with  the  already  short  average   path  length  in  the  follower   graph.       One  hypothesis  explaining  this   data  could  be  that  when  a  user   receives  some  interes/ng  URL   along  an  path  longer  than  1,   then  that  user  is  very  likely  to   start  following  the  original   source  of  the  URL   Trend  Dynamics  >  Twieer  Trending  Topics  >  Informa/on  Diffusion  
  90. 90. The  more  users,     the  bigger  the  subcascades   The  URLs  tweeted  by  the  highly   connected  users  reach  large   audiences  and  are  likely  to  be   (re)tweeted  by  their  followers.   However,  the  causality  is  likely   to  be  bidirec/onal:  the  users’s   URLs  are  tweeted  more   because  they  have  many   folllowers,  but  also  they  have   accumulated  many  followers   because  what  they  tweet  tends   to  be  interes/ng  and  viral.   Trend  Dynamics  >  Twieer  Trending  Topics  >  Informa/on  Diffusion  
  91. 91. How  long  takes  to  make  a  RT?   The  diffusion  delay  taken  across   all  the  (u,  i)  pairs  in  the  social   graph  is  log-­‐normally   distributed  with  a  median  of  50   minutes   Trend  Dynamics  >  Twieer  Trending  Topics  >  Informa/on  Diffusion  
  92. 92. TREND  PARAMETRIZATION  
  93. 93. Trending  Topic  Classifica/on   Trend  Parametriza/on   TwiBer  Trending  Topic  ClassificaYon     Kathy  Lee,  Diana  Palse/a,  Ramanathan  Narayanan,  Md.  Mostofa  Ali  Patwary,  Ankit  Agrawal,  and  Alok  Choudhary     2011  11th  IEEE  Interna/onal  Conference  on  Data  Mining  Workshops     768  trending   topics  selected   randomly  from   the  +23000   collected   between  2010   and  2011  
  94. 94. Classifica/on  Tecniques   Trend  Parametriza/on   Comparison  of   classifica/on   accuracy  using   different   classifiers  for   network-­‐based   classifica/on     TwiBer  Trending  Topic  ClassificaYon     Kathy  Lee,  Diana  Palse/a,  Ramanathan  Narayanan,  Md.  Mostofa  Ali  Patwary,  Ankit  Agrawal,  and  Alok  Choudhary     2011  11th  IEEE  Interna/onal  Conference  on  Data  Mining  Workshops    
  95. 95. Classifica/on  Tecniques   Trend  Parametriza/on   Comparison  of   classifica/on   accuracy  using   different   classifiers  for   text-­‐based   classifica/on     TwiBer  Trending  Topic  ClassificaYon     Kathy  Lee,  Diana  Palse/a,  Ramanathan  Narayanan,  Md.  Mostofa  Ali  Patwary,  Ankit  Agrawal,  and  Alok  Choudhary     2011  11th  IEEE  Interna/onal  Conference  on  Data  Mining  Workshops     NBM  =  Naive  Bayes  Mul/nomial   SVM  =  Support  Vectors  Machines     (number  of  tweets,  top  frequent   terms)  
  96. 96.   “Online  Trends  Analysis”     by  Francesc  Gómez  Morales     is  licensed  under  a     Crea/ve  Commons  Aeribu/on-­‐ NonCommercial-­‐ShareAlike  3.0  Unported   License  
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