Climate risk to long term asset value | Iain Watt | Forum for the Future

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Climate risk to long term asset value | Iain Watt | Forum for the Future

  1. 1. Introducing Climate RiskIain Watt, November 21, 2012
  2. 2. climate risk Climate change is now on the radar screen of most large organisations in the UK, but few are thinking through the full range of associated risks…
  3. 3. climate riskThere are impacts from the physical changes associated withclimate change – but also from the societal response toclimate change.And there are both direct and indirect risks: • Some organisations will see their physical assets directly impacted by climate change, for example, while others will have their supply chains – or their markets – disrupted. • Some will be directly impacted by regulation to reduce emissions, while others will have the costs of such regulation passed along to them.
  4. 4. physical impacts
  5. 5. the broader societal response
  6. 6. resilienceThus, to ensure that developmentsare fit for purpose over theirproposed lifespan, we not only haveto consider the ‘obvious’ impacts of “...some of the largest effectsclimate change, but also how in the UK will result from climate change elsewhere inclimate change will impact: the world. The consequences of these impacts will be• availability of resources transmitted through global• operating and maintenance costs trade, resource flows, migration and political• population and demographics networks. The UK will have to prepare for these as well.”• politics and policy• business and trade Committee on Climate Change• social attitudes and norms
  7. 7. Planning foruncertainty… or or, even...
  8. 8. The new dilemma? Wetter, warmer winters? Hotter, dryer summers? More extreme events? vs. A shifting jet stream? Negative Arctic Oscillations? A new ENSO regime?
  9. 9. thank youIain Watt | i.watt@forumforthefuture.orgforumforthefuture.org | registered charity no. 1040519 9

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