2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
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2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast from the National Restaurant Association

2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast from the National Restaurant Association

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  • 1. www.restaurant.org/forecast FEATURED 2012 CONSUMER RESEARCH SECTION Decoding Consumers in a Challenging ECONOMY n Hunkered-dow Op timistic Cautious Scan this QR code or visit www.restaurant.org/forecast to view the 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast video
  • 2. Shared Vision of the National Restaurant Association,National Restaurant Association Educational Foundation and StateRestaurant Associations:We will lead America’s restaurant industry into a new era of prosperity,prominence and participation, enhancing the quality of life for allwe serve. FOLLOW www.twitter.com/ WeRRestaurantsMISSION MISSIONWe exist to help our members As the philanthropic foundation JOIN— the cornerstone of their of the National Restaurant www.facebook.com/communities — build customer Association, we exist to enhance NationalRestaurantAssociationloyalty, rewarding careers and the restaurant industry’s servicefinancial success. to the public through education, community engagement and the promotion of career opportunities. WATCH www.youtube.com/ restaurantdotorgWe create valuefor our members in five ways:• Advocacy and representation Building and sustaining positive public opinion and a favorable political environment. CONNECT www.linkedin.com/• Tools and solutions groups?gid=37937 Helping grow revenues, increase profitability and develop employees.• Education and networking Providing opportunities to connect and learn from each other.• Research and insights Anticipating and preparing for emerging trends that could impact VIEW restaurants. www.flickr.com/photos/• Responsible stewardship restaurantdotorg Providing thought leadership to inspire community involvement and impact. www.restaurant.org
  • 3. InsideThe National Restaurant Association ispleased to provide the 2012 RestaurantIndustry Forecast, our 43rd annual profileof restaurant-industry opportunities andchallenges for the year ahead. Theresearch and insights are based onanalysis of the latest economic data, aswell as extensive surveys of restaurateursand consumers.The National Restaurant Association willclosely monitor incoming industry andeconomic data in the months ahead andprovide updates to this Forecast atwww.restaurant.org/research.The 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecastwas prepared by the National RestaurantAssociation Research and KnowledgeGroup:Hudson RiehleSenior Vice President, Researchand KnowledgeBruce GrindyChief EconomistTim SmithArt Director 2012 Sales Projections....................................................................................................2Annika StenssonPublic Relations Decoding Consumers in a Challenging Economy.........................................................9Jennifer BattyEditor Economic Outlook..........................................................................................................15 Fullservice Outlook.........................................................................................................21 Limited-Service Outlook................................................................................................27 Other Foodservice Segments.........................................................................................331200 17th St., NW, Washington, DC 20036(800) 424-5156 | www.restaurant.org Food and Menu Trends..................................................................................................35© 2012 National Restaurant Association Workforce Outlook........................................................................................................41ISBN 978-1-931400-74-9 Supply-Chain Outlook....................................................................................................47Thank you to our National Restaurant Appendix........................................................................................................................50Association 2012 Restaurant IndustryForecast sponsor: www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 1
  • 4. Sales Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast2012:Achieving Growthin a Challenging Environment2012 Restaurant Industry ForecastD riven by the continued national choose one restaurant over another. To rants in the current environment. economic recovery and consumers’ help operators better attract and retain The second segment looks at frequent pent-up demand for the food, customers, the 2012 Forecast analyzes restaurant customers. These consumers areservice and social outlet that restaurants consumers by creating two segments. critical to the restaurant industry in goodprovide, the U.S. restaurant industry is One segment looks at consumers by economic times, and are even moreprojected to expand in 2012. According to their financial situation and spending important in the current environment. Thethe National Restaurant Association’s 2012 patterns. The result is the creation of three three categories analyzed are: FrequentRestaurant Industry Forecast, total distinct consumer categories: Optimistic Fullservice Customers, Frequent Quickser-restaurant-industry sales are projected to Consumers, Cautious Consumers and vice Customers and Frequent Off-Premisesreach a record high of $631.8 billion in Hunkered-Down Consumers. Each group Dinner Customers. Each frequent customer2012, a 3.5 percent increase over 2011 and has a different mindset about the econo- uses his or her respective segment morethe second consecutive year that industry my, and a different way of using restau- than once a week, on average.sales topped the $600 billion level. In inflation-adjusted terms, totalrestaurant sales are projected to grow 0.8percent in 2012, down slightly from a 1.3percent gain in 2011. Although both the Adding It All Up: $631.8 billionnominal and real growth rates will be Projected restaurant-industry sales in 2012somewhat below the 2011 gains, industrygrowth will remain in positive territory for Commercial Restaurant Services $575.1 billionthe third consecutive year. This follows theunprecedented two straight years of real Eating places*: $419.2 billionsales declines in 2008 and 2009. Bars and taverns: $18.9 billionAnticipating Consumers’ Managed services: $44.4 billionNeedsIn addition to revealing the Association’s Lodging places: $31.4 billionsales and economic projections on thenational and state levels, the 2012 Forecast Retail, vending, recreation, mobile: $61.2 billionalso takes a detailed look at the mindsetand spending patterns of consumers. Noncommercial Restaurant Services $54.2 billion To be successful in today’s challengingbusiness environment, restaurant opera- *Eating places include fullservice restaurants and limited-tors need to understand what makes service (quickservice) restaurants, cafeterias and buffets, Military Restaurant Services $2.5 billion social caterers, and snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars.customers tick and what motivates them to2 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 5. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Sales Outlook Restaurant-Industry Restaurant-Industry Restaurant-Industry Share of the Food Dollar Sales Employment $ $ (Billions of Current Dollars) 14.3 million $631.8 12.9 million 11.4 million 25% 48% $379.0 $239.3 $119.6 $42.8 1955 Present 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012* 2002 2012* 2022* *Projected *Projected42 Years of Restaurant-Industry SalesThis chart shows sales growth for the restaurant industry since 1971, when the National Restaurant Association began issuing its annualforecast. The chart shows growth in the number of dollars spent each year in restaurants as well as real (inflation-adjusted) sales growth. 12.8% 12.4% 11.8% 12.3% 11.6% 11.5% 9.9% 10.8% 2012 Current dollar growth: 3.5% 9.2% 8.0% 7.9% 8.3% Real (inflation-adjusted) growth: 0.8% 8.4% 7.2%7.7% 6.6% 6.2% 6.9% 5.8% 6.1% 5.5% 5.8% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4% 4.2% 5.3% 4.2% 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 4.0% 4.6% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 3.2% 4.2% 3.5%3.0% 3.0% 3.4% 2.9% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% 3.1% 3.5% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% –0.2% –0.1% –0.2% –0.9%–0.6% –2.8%1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 Current dollar growth Real (inflation-adjusted) growthGrowth rates are estimated for 2008 to 2010 and projected for 2011 and 2012. Providing final estimates for restaurant-industry sales from previous years is an ongoing process.The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant TrendMapper offers updated sales estimates as they become available.Visit www.restaurant.org/trendmapper to learn more.Source: National Restaurant Association www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 3
  • 6. Sales Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry ForecastWhat’s in Store for Footnotes:Restaurant-Industry Sales 1 Data are given only for establishments with payroll. 2 Waiter/waitress service is provided,Restaurant-industry food-and-drink sales: Projections for 2012 and the order is taken while the patron is seated. Patrons pay ‘11–’12 % after they eat. 2011 Projected 2012 Projected ‘11–’12 % Real Growth 3 Patrons generally order at a cash F&D Sales ($000) F&D Sales ($000) Change Change register or select items from a food bar and pay before they eat. GROUP I — COMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES1 4 Formerly commercial EATING PLACES cafeterias. Fullservice restaurants2 $195,711,168 $201,386,792 2.9% 0.2% 5 Food-and-drink sales for non-payroll Limited-service (quickservice) restaurants3 168,527,095 173,751,435 3.1% 0.4% establishments are Cafeterias, grill-buffets and buffets4 8,249,697 8,472,439 2.7% 0.0% projected to total $12,615,226,000. Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars 26,580,519 27,670,321 4.1% 1.4% 6 Also referred to as Social caterers 7,513,666 7,934,432 5.6% 2.9% onsite food-service TOTAL EATING PLACES $406,582,145 $419,215,419 3.1% 0.4% and food contractors. Bars and taverns 18,359,387 18,910,169 3.0% 0.4% 7 Includes drug- and proprietary-store TOTAL EATING-AND-DRINKING PLACES $424,941,532 $438,125,588 5 3.1% 0.4% restaurants, general- merchandise-store MANAGED SERVICES6 restaurants, variety- Manufacturing and industrial plants $7,007,302 $7,340,408 4.8% 2.1% store restaurants, food-store Commercial and office buildings 2,611,070 2,684,180 2.8% 0.1% restaurants and Hospitals and nursing homes 5,170,569 5,460,121 5.6% 2.7% grocery-store restaurants Colleges and universities 13,889,332 14,418,786 3.8% 0.6% (including a portion Primary and secondary schools 6,041,190 6,294,920 4.2% 1.4% of delis and all salad bars), gasoline- In-transit restaurant services (airlines) 2,263,753 2,342,985 3.5% 0.8% service-station restaurants and Recreation and sports centers 5,611,996 5,875,760 4.7% 2.0% miscellaneous TOTAL MANAGED SERVICES $42,595,212 $44,417,160 4.3% 1.4% retailers. LODGING PLACES 8 Includes movies, bowling lanes, Hotel restaurants $29,602,800 $30,994,132 4.7% 2.0% recreation and sport Other accommodation restaurants 397,166 419,805 5.7% 3.0% centers. TOTAL LODGING PLACES $29,999,966 $31,413,937 4.7% 2.0% 9 Includes sales of hot food, sandwiches, Retail-host restaurants7 33,152,723 35,111,790 5.9% 3.2% pastries, coffee and other hot beverages. Recreation and sports8 12,922,544 13,496,710 4.4% 1.7% 10 Business, Mobile caterers 628,422 653,685 4.0% 1.3% educational, Vending and nonstore retailers9 11,537,834 11,883,970 3.0% 0.7% governmental or institutional TOTAL — GROUP I $555,778,233 $575,102,840 3.5% 0.8% organizations that operate their own restaurant services. GROUP II — NONCOMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES10 11 Includes industrial Employee restaurant services11 $424,157 $440,942 4.0% 0.9% and commercial organizations, Public and parochial elementary, secondary schools 6,617,656 6,844,963 3.4% 0.6% seagoing and inland- Colleges and universities 7,206,760 7,478,958 3.8% 0.6% waterway vessels. 12 Includes voluntary and Transportation 2,069,914 2,175,955 5.1% 2.3% proprietary hospitals; Hospitals12 15,755,054 16,375,645 3.9% 1.2% long-term general, TB, nervous and Nursing homes, homes for the aged, blind, orphans, mental hospitals; and and the mentally and physically disabled13 7,908,212 8,192,908 3.6% 0.8% sales or commercial equivalent to Clubs, sporting and recreational camps 9,404,611 9,711,534 3.3% 0.6% employees in state Community centers 2,901,663 3,006,123 3.6% 0.8% and local short-term hospitals and federal TOTAL — GROUP II $52,288,027 $54,227,028 3.7% 0.9% hospitals. TOTAL — GROUPS I AND II $608,066,260 $629,329,868 3.5% 0.8% 13 Sales (commercial equivalent) calculated for nursing homes GROUP III — MILITARY RESTAURANT SERVICES14 and homes for the aged only. All others Officers’ and NCO clubs (Open mess) $1,626,203 $1,722,149 5.9% 3.2% in this grouping make Military exchanges 719,946 764,583 6.2% 3.5% no charge for food served either in cash TOTAL — GROUP III $2,346,149 $2,486,732 6.0% 3.3% or in kind. 14 Continental United States only. GRAND TOTAL $610,412,409 $631,816,600 3.5% 0.8%4 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 7. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Sales OutlookMajor Markets: Projected Sales, 2012The chart on pages 5–6 provides more detail on the National Restaurant Association’s projections for sales in markets outside the “eating-and-drinking places” category in 2012, including foodservice sales at schools, worksites, health-care facilities, lodging places and the military.Educational SalesWhat this category includes: Food-and-drink sales by foodservice companies that manage restaurant services in colleges, universities, primary and secondaryschools, as well as food-and-drink sales by schools that operate their own restaurant services. 2011 Projected 2012 Projected ‘11–’12 % ‘11–’12 % Real 2012 projected food-and-drink sales $35.0 billion F&D Sales ($000) F&D Sales ($000) Change Growth Change Colleges and universities Managed services $13,889,332 $14,418,786 3.8% 0.6% Noncommercial 7,206,760 7,478,958 3.8% 0.6% Subtotal 21,096,092 21,897,744 3.8% 0.6% Primary and secondary schools Managed services 6,041,190 6,294,920 4.2% 1.4% Noncommercial 6,617,656 6,844,963 3.4% 0.6% Subtotal 12,658,846 13,139,883 3.8% 1.0% TOTAL EDUCATIONAL $33,754,938 $35,037,627 3.8% 0.8%Employee SalesWhat this category includes: Food-and-drink sales by for-profit companies that manage restaurant services for employees at manufacturing and industrial plantsand in commercial office buildings, as well as food-and-drink sales by plants and companies that run their own noncommercial employee restaurant services. 2011 Projected 2012 Projected ‘11–’12 % ‘11–’12 % Real 2012 projected food-and-drink sales $10.5 billion F&D Sales ($000) F&D Sales ($000) Change Growth Change Managed services Manufacturing and industrial plants $7,007,302 $7,340,408 4.8% 2.1% Commercial and office buildings 2,611,070 2,684,180 2.8% 0.1% Noncommercial employee restaurant services* 424,157 440,942 4.0% 0.9% TOTAL EMPLOYEE $10,042,529 $10,465,530 4.2% 1.5% *Includes sales for industrial plants and office buildings, seagoing ships, and inland-waterway vesselsHealth-Care SalesWhat this category includes: Food-and-drink sales by foodservice companies that manage restaurant services in hospitals and nursing homes, as well asfood-and-drink sales by hospitals and nursing homes that operate their own restaurant services. 2011 Projected 2012 Projected ‘11–’12 % ‘11–’12 % Real 2012 projected food-and-drink sales $30.0 billion F&D Sales ($000) F&D Sales ($000) Change Growth Change Managed services in hospitals and nursing homes $5,170,569 $5,460,121 5.6% 2.7% Hospitals* 15,755,054 16,375,645 3.9% 1.2% Nursing homes** 7,908,212 8,192,908 3.6% 0.8% TOTAL HEALTH CARE $28,833,835 $30,028,674 4.1% 1.4% *Includes voluntary and proprietary hospitals; long-term general, TB, mental hospitals; and sales or commercial equivalent to employees in state and local short-term hospitals and federal hospitals. **Includes homes for the aged, blind, orphans, mentally and physically disabled; sales (commercial equivalent) calculated for nursing homes and homes for the aged only. All others in this group make no charge — either in cash or in kind for food served.Lodging-Place SalesWhat this category includes: Food-and-drink sales at hotel restaurants and other accommodation restaurants. 2011 Projected 2012 Projected ‘11–’12 % ‘11–’12 % Real 2012 projected food-and-drink sales $31.4 billion F&D Sales ($000) F&D Sales ($000) Change Growth Change Hotel restaurants $29,602,800 $30,994,132 4.7% 2.0% Other accommodation restaurants 397,166 419,805 5.7% 3.0% TOTAL LODGING PLACES $29,999,966 $31,413,937 4.7% 2.0% www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 5
  • 8. Sales Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry ForecastMajor Markets ContinuedMilitary SalesWhat this category includes: Food-and-drink sales at military clubs and exchanges. 2011 Projected 2012 Projected ‘11–’12 % ‘11–’12 % Real 2012 projected food-and-drink sales $2.5 billion F&D Sales ($000) F&D Sales ($000) Change Growth Change Officers’ and NCO clubs (Open mess) $1,626,203 $1,722,149 5.9% 3.2% Military exchanges 719,946 764,583 6.2% 3.5% TOTAL MILITARY* $2,346,149 $2,486,732 6.0% 3.3% *Continental United States only.Recreational SalesWhat this category includes: Food-and-drink sales at recreation and sports centers, such as movie theaters, sports arenas and bowling lanes. 2011 Projected 2012 Projected ‘11–’12 % ‘11–’12 % Real 2012 projected food-and-drink sales $29.1 billion F&D Sales ($000) F&D Sales ($000) Change Growth Change Recreation and sports centers Managed services $5,611,996 $5,875,760 4.7% 2.0% Noncontractors* 12,922,544 13,496,710 4.4% 1.7% Subtotal 18,534,540 19,372,470 4.5% 1.8% Clubs, sporting and recreational camps** 9,404,611 9,711,534 3.3% 0.6% TOTAL RECREATIONAL $27,939,151 $29,084,004 4.1% 1.4% *Includes sales at movies, bowling lanes, and recreation and sports centers. **A portion of food-and-beverage sales in clubs is business-related.Transportation SalesWhat this category includes: Food-and-drink sales on airlines, passenger/cargo liners and railroads. 2011 Projected 2012 Projected ‘11–’12 % ‘11–’12 % Real 2012 projected food-and-drink sales $4.5 billion F&D Sales ($000) F&D Sales ($000) Change Growth Change Managed services, in-transit commercial airlines $2,263,753 $2,342,985 3.5% 0.8% Noncommercial transportation 2,069,914 2,175,955 5.1% 2.3% TOTAL TRANSPORTATION $4,333,667 $4,518,940 4.3% 1.5%Other Sales 2011 Projected 2012 Projected ‘11–’12 % ‘11–’12 % Real 2012 projected food-and-drink sales $50.7 billion F&D Sales ($000) F&D Sales ($000) Change Growth Change Retail hosts* $33,152,723 $35,111,790 5.9% 3.2% Mobile caterers 628,422 653,685 4.0% 1.3% Vending and non-store retailers** 11,537,834 11,883,970 3.0% 0.7% Community centers 2,901,663 3,006,123 3.6% 0.8% *Includes drug- and proprietary-store, general-merchandise store, variety-store, food-store and grocery-store restaurants (including a portion of delis and all salad bars); gasoline/service-station restaurants; and miscellaneous retailers. **Includes sales of hot food, sandwiches, pastries, coffee and other hot beverages.6 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 9. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Sales OutlookRestaurant-Industry Sales Over Five Years: 2008-2012 2008 2009 ‘08–’09 2010 ‘09–’10 2011 ‘10–’11 2012 ‘11–’12 Sales Sales Change Sales Change Sales Change Sales ChangeCOMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES $523,459,092 $519,554,791 –0.7% $535,106,004 3.0% $555,778,233 3.9% $575,102,840 3.5% Eating Places 388,478,808 384,111,349 –1.1% 393,028,164 2.3% 406,582,145 3.4% 419,215,419 3.1% Fullservice restaurants 191,470,223 186,109,057 –2.8% 189,459,020 1.8% 195,711,168 3.3% 201,386,792 2.9% Limited-service restaurants 157,591,999 159,010,327 0.9% 162,985,585 2.5% 168,527,095 3.4% 173,751,435 3.1% Cafeterias, grill-buffets and buffets 7,691,686 7,768,603 1.0% 8,017,198 3.2% 8,249,697 2.9% 8,472,439 2.7% Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars 24,652,412 24,504,498 –0.6% 25,484,678 4.0% 26,580,519 4.3% 27,670,321 4.1% Social caterers 7,072,488 6,718,864 –5.0% 7,081,683 5.4% 7,513,666 6.1% 7,934,432 5.6% Bars and taverns 17,117,259 17,305,549 1.1% 17,790,104 2.8% 18,359,387 3.2% 18,910,169 3.0% TOTAL EATING-AND-DRINKING PLACES $405,596,067 $401,416,898 –1.0% $410,818,268 2.3% $424,941,532 3.4% $438,125,588 3.1%NONCOMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES $47,509,488 $47,881,491 0.8% $49,823,416 4.1% $52,288,027 4.9% $54,227,028 3.7%MILITARY RESTAURANT SERVICES $2,046,800 $2,149,353 5.0% $2,235,735 4.0% $2,346,149 4.9% $2,486,732 6.0%TOTAL INDUSTRY SALES $573,015,380 $569,585,635 –0.6% $587,165,155 3.1% $610,412,409 4.0% $631,816,600 3.5%Source: National Restaurant AssociationRestaurant Sales by U.S. Census RegionGrowth in the restaurant industry typically varies significantly by region of the country, and is most heavily influenced by gains in employment,disposable income and population. (Note: The appendix on page 50 offers details on restaurant-sales growth in each state.) Regional Snapshots East North Central East South Central Middle Atlantic Mountain Restaurant sales1 2012 projected growth: 2012 projected growth: 2012 projected growth: 2012 projected growth: and economic2 Regional National Regional National Regional National Regional National growth projected • Jobs 0.6% 1.3% • Jobs 1.3% 1.3% • Jobs 1.0% 1.3% • Jobs 1.5% 1.3% for 2012 in the • Income 0.9% 2.0% • Income 1.7% 2.0% • Income 1.6% 2.0% • Income 2.5% 2.0% nine U.S. Census • Population 0.3% 1.0% • Population 0.8% 1.0% • Population 0.3% 1.0% • Population 1.9% 1.0% regions Restaurant Restaurant Restaurant Restaurant Sales 2.9% 3.2% Sales 3.0% 3.2% Sales 3.3% 3.2% Sales 3.4% 3.2%New England Pacific South Atlantic West North Central West South Central2012 projected growth: 2012 projected growth: 2012 projected growth: 2012 projected growth: 2012 projected growth: Regional National Regional National Regional National Regional National Regional National• Jobs 0.7% 1.3% • Jobs 1.1% 1.3% • Jobs 1.1% 1.3% • Jobs 1.1% 1.3% • Jobs 2.1% 1.3%• Income 1.4% 2.0% • Income 1.7% 2.0% • Income 2.2% 2.0% • Income 2.2% 2.0% • Income 2.4% 2.0%• Population 0.2% 1.0% • Population 1.2% 1.0% • Population 1.3% 1.0% • Population 0.7% 1.0% • Population 1.4% 1.0% Restaurant Restaurant Restaurant Restaurant Restaurant Sales 2.5% 3.2% Sales 3.0% 3.2% Sales 3.5% 3.2% Sales 2.8% 3.2% Sales 3.9% 3.2%1 Regional restaurant-sales-growth figures are based on current dollars and not adjusted for menu price inflation. For definition of restaurant sales included in this grouping see page 50 footnote.2 Economic indicators show growth in region’s total employment, real disposable personal income and total population. www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 7
  • 10. Sales Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry ForecastRestaurant Sales Growth in 2012 (projected) See state information appendix on page 50 for full sales projections for all states. WA 3.3% NH 2.7% ME VT MT ND 2.2% 2.7% 3.2% 4.1% OR 3.1% MA ID 2.4% MN WI NY 3.2% SD 3.1% 2.8% 3.4% RI WY 3.0% MI 2.3% 3.7% 2.7% CT NV IA PA 2.9% 3.4% NE 2.3% 3.2% 3.0% OH NJ UT IL IN DE 3.3% 3.0% 3.1% CA 3.6% CO 3.2% 2.6% WV 3.0% 3.5% KS 2.2% VA MD 2.7% MO KY 3.3% 3.7% 2.5% 3.3% DC NC 3.3% TN 3.3% AZ OK NM 2.8% 3.3% 3.4% AR SC 3.3% 3.1% 3.6% MS 2.8% AL GA 3.2% 3.1% TX 4.1% LA 3.3% AK 3.5% FL 3.9% 3.5% or higher 3.2% to 3.4% HI 2.9% 2.8% to 3.1% 2.7% or less*State restaurant-sales figures are in current dollars and not adjusted for menu price inflation. For definition of restaurant sales included in this grouping see page 50 footnote.National sales for this group are projected to increase at a 3.2 percent rate in 2012.Source: National Restaurant Association 2012 Restaurant 2012 Restaurant Top 12 States Top 12 States Sales Growth Sales VolumeProjected increase in restaurant sales Projected restaurant sales volumein 2012 in 2012 ($000)North Dakota 4.1% 1 California $63,837,084Texas 4.1% 2 Texas $38,421,874Florida 3.9% 3 New York $31,927,145Wyoming 3.7% 4 Florida $31,463,913Maryland 3.7% 5 Illinois $20,677,633South Carolina 3.6% 6 Pennsylvania $17,084,489Utah 3.6% 7 Ohio $16,619,422Alaska 3.5% 8 Georgia $15,224,418Colorado 3.5% 9 North Carolina $14,685,881New York 3.4% 10 New Jersey $13,567,704Oklahoma 3.4% 11 Virginia $13,263,834Nevada 3.4% 12 Massachusetts $12,632,8948 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 11. Hunkered-down u s Optimistic utioCa FEATURED 2012 CONSUMER RESEARCH SECTION Decoding Consumers in a Challenging Economy W ith the official end of the Great Recession now more than two years in the past, most households expected things would be getting better. Sluggish job growth, persistent high unemployment, stagnant incomes and falling home prices were supposed to be in the rear view mirror by now. The good times should have returned, giving consumer sentiment a much-needed boost. Unfortunately, the reality is quite economy as either “fair” or “poor.” When different from those expectations, accord- asked the same question in December 2010, ing to new National Restaurant Association an identical 92 percent of adults gave the research. In fact, from the perspective of same assessment of the economy. many consumers, the economy didn’t It can even be argued that consumers’ improve at all in 2011. According to the view of the economy worsened over the Association’s National Household Survey last year, as 65 percent gave the economy a fielded in December 2011, 92 percent of “poor” rating in December 2011, an adults described the current state of the increase from 58 percent just a year ago. Continued … www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 9
  • 12. Decoding Consumers 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Although the general assessment of Consumers Still Not Confident in the Economythe national economy remains negative, Consumers’ assessment of the economy, December 2011 versus December 2010consumers are somewhat more positive December 2011about their personal financial situation. 65% 27% 7% 1%Forty-three percent of adults describedtheir personal finances as “excellent” December 2010 58% 34% 8%(10 percent) or “good” (33 percent),while 56 percent gave a rating of “fair”(38 percent) or “poor” (18 percent). Consumers More Optimistic About Their This is generally on par with consumers’ Own Piggy Bankssentiment a year ago, when four out of 10 Consumers’ assessment of their personal finances, December 2011 versus December 2010assessed their personal financial situationas “excellent” or “good,” and six out of 10 December 2011 18% 38% 33% 10%said it was “fair” or “poor.” December 2010Outlook Remains Mixed 18% 41% 34% 7%Consumers’ assessment of current Poor Fair Good Excellenteconomic conditions is generally bleak, Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2010 and 2011but their outlook for the year ahead 56%remains mixed. In fact, when comparedto December 2010, consumers are actually Same Old, Same Oldsomewhat less optimistic about an Outlook for 2011 Outlook for 2012improving economic environment in the (in December 2010) (in December 2011)year ahead. Stay About Stay About Don’t Know Percent of adults the Same Get Better Three out of 10 adults (30 percent) said the Same 2% Get Better who described their 54% 29% 44% personal financesthey think the nation’s economy will get 30% as “fair” or “good”better in 2012, while a solid majorityexpect conditions to worsen (24 percent)or stay the same (44 percent). This outlookis similar to the view consumers held a yearago, when 29 percent thought economic Get Worse 17% Get Worse 24%conditions would improve in 2011 and Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2010 and 201117 percent thought the economy wouldget worse. On an individual level, consumers Glass Half Full or Half Empty?are somewhat more bullish about the Consumers’ outlook for their household financial situation in 2012, by age groupprospects for their personal finances in the 70% 58% 57% 61%year ahead. Thirty-three percent of adults 48% 49% 53%expect their household financial situation 33% 34% 34%to be better in 2012 than it was in 2011. 25% 13% 13% 16% 9% 11%Meanwhile, just 9 percent said they think 2% 8%their financial situation will get worse in All Adults 18 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or Older2012. Younger adults are much more optimis- Better Than 2011 About the Same as 2011 Worse Than 2011tic about their personal economics in 2012. Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2011Forty-eight percent of adults between theages of 18 and 34 said their householdfinancial situation will improve in 2012; Loss of Trust credit downgrade to Congress’s inability to2 percent expect it to worsen. In contrast, Contributing to the general malaise in the reach a compromise on legislation, manyonly 13 percent of adults age 65 and country is the overall lack of confidence in consumers have lost trust in the pillars ofolder expect their household financial many of the entities and institutions that American society.situation to get better in 2012, while a are expected to be working toward Moreover, research shows that thehigher 16 percent predicted it will get improving the common good. From the situation is getting worse. In the Associa-worse. financial meltdown to the nation’s AAA tion’s 2010 and 2011 National Household10 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 13. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Decoding ConsumersConfidence in Nation’s Pillars Still Challenged Consumers’ Level ofThe amount of confidence consumers have in the following institutions and entities Confidence in the Congress National Economy: 33% 36% 24% 3% December 2010 Federal Government Very Little None at All 24% 31% 32% 8% 15% A Great Deal 26% 5% National News Media Quite a Bit 25% 30% 31% 6% 6% 9% Financial Industry Some 20% 31% 37% 5% 4% 45% Large Corporations 20% 29% 36% 9% 5% December 2011 None at All Very Little Businesses in Community 18% 4% 10% 42% 27% 16% 33% A Great Deal 4% None at All Very Little Some Quite a Bit A Great Deal Quite a BitSource: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2011 8%69% Some 36% Percent of adults who said they had little or no confidence Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household in Congress, up from 60 percent in December 2010. Survey, 2010 and 2011Surveys, consumers were asked how much “very little” or “none at all.” In December most, while just 10 percent picked Congressconfidence they had in various American 2010, 14 percent of adults said they had “a as the biggest economic problem solver.institutions and entities. Without fail, their great deal” or “quite a bit” of confidence inresponses showed that confidence in most the national economy, while 41 percent said A Head’s Up on Consumerof the main institutions and entities is they had “very little” or “none at all.” Thinkingeroding across the board. Even during good economic times, one size In December 2011, 69 percent of adults does not fit all for consumers. Restaurantsaid they had little or no confidence in Local Business operators are well aware that they haveCongress, up from 60 percent in December Leading the Way to tailor their food, service and marketing2010. Similarly, 55 percent of adults said Consumers’ view of who is doing the most to to the kind of consumer they want tothey had little or no confidence in the help get the economy back on track reach. In today’s challenging economicfederal government or national news Don’t Know 13% Businesses environment, it is even more important formedia, up from less than half of adults in Congress in Their operators to know their customers and Community2010. Roughly one-half of adults said they 10% how to appeal to them. 63%had little or no confidence in large corpora- Large The Association’s 2012 Forecast takes ations or the financial industry, which also Corporations detailed look at the mindset, motivationsrepresented an increase from a year ago. 14% and spending patterns of today’s consumers There is one exception to consumers’ to help restaurant operators create a Source: National Restaurant Association, National Householddeclining confidence — they still have faith forward-thinking business plan that will Survey, 2011in their communities’ businesses. Forty- enable them to effectively compete forthree percent of adults said they have “a consumers’ limited dollars.great deal” or “quite a bit” of confidence in Searching for Problem Solvers Based on the Association’s 2011businesses in their community, matching the With all the challenges facing the country, National Household Survey, consumers areproportion that reported similarly in 2010. where are consumers looking for solutions? divided into the following three segments Taken as a whole, the result is a shortage They are turning to their local businesses. based on their financial situation, currentin confidence in the overall economy — a Nearly two-thirds of adults (63 percent) said spending behavior and economic outlook:trend that is worsening. Only 12 percent of they think businesses in their community • Optimistic Consumers: 21 percent ofadults said they had “a great deal” or are doing the most to get the economy adults said they are confident in their“quite a bit” of confidence in the national moving again. Fourteen percent said they financial situation and have not cut backeconomy, while 51 percent said they had think large corporations are doing the on spending. www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 11
  • 14. Decoding Consumers 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast • Cautious Consumers: 42 percent of A Closer Look at Not surprisingly, Optimistic Consumersadults said they are taking a wait-and-see Today’s Consumers have the highest average householdapproach and have cut back somewhat on income out of the three groups. Sixty-three Optimistic Cautious Hunkered-downspending until the economy improves. Consumers Consumers Consumers percent of Optimistic Consumers have an • Hunkered-Down Consumers: 37 annual household income of $50,000 or 21% 42% 37%percent of adults said they are very more, and the average income for theconcerned about the economy and have Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household group is $72,600. Cautious Consumers have Survey, 2011cut back significantly on spending. an average household income of $63,800, while Hunkered-Down Consumers have anThe Inside Scoop on Today’s Optimistic Consumers are age 65 or average income of $49,800.Consumer older, higher than the other two groups. On the national level, CautiousThe demographic profiles of the three Conversely, 43 percent of Hunkered-Down Consumers are the largest category, withconsumer groups are quite diverse. Nearly Consumers are between the ages of 45 and 42 percent of adults identifying themselvestwo-thirds of Optimistic Consumers (63 64, compared with 33 percent of Cautious with this group. The same holds truepercent) are men, while 57 percent of Consumers and 25 percent of Optimistic regionally—the Cautious group representsHunkered-Down Consumers are women. Consumers. the largest number of consumers in eachThe Cautious group is almost evenly split A majority of individuals in each of the of the four U.S. regions.between men and women. three consumer groups are employed, led by The Midwest region is home to the Optimistic Consumers have the highest 56 percent of Cautious Consumers. Seven- highest proportion of Optimistic Consumersrepresentation of younger and older teen percent of Hunkered-Down Consumers (27 percent), well above this group’s shareadults. Fifty-three percent of Optimistic are currently not employed, compared with in the South (20 percent), West (20Consumers are between the ages of 18 and 8 percent of individuals in the Optimistic and percent) and Northeast (18 percent). The44, compared with 48 percent of Cautious Cautious groups. Optimistic Consumers are West (39 percent) and South (38 percent)Consumers and 40 percent of Hunkered- slightly more likely to be retired than those regions have the highest proportion ofDown Consumers. Twenty-one percent of in the other two groups. Hunkered-Down Consumers.ConsumerConsumption Consumers who describe themselves as … OPTIMISTIC CAUTIOUS HUNKERED-DOWN Percent of all consumers 21% 42% 37% DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS Gender Male...................... 63% Male...................... 49% Male......................43% Female.................. 37% Female................... 51% Female...................57% Age 18 to 44................. 53% 18 to 44................. 48% 18 to 44.................40% 45 to 64................. 25% 45 to 64 ................ 33% 45 to 64.................43% 65 and Older........ 21% 65 and Older......... 16% 65 and Older.........15% Employment status Employed.............. 53% Employed.............. 56% Employed..............51% Not Employed........ 8% Not Employed......... 8% Not Employed.......17% Retired.................. 24% Retired.................. 20% Retired...................21% Household income Less Than $50k..... 29% Less Than $50k...... 39% Less Than $50k......56% $50k or More........ 63% $50k or More........ 53% $50k or More........37% Avg. Income.....$72,600 Avg. Income.....$63,800 Avg. Income.... $49,800Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 201112 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 15. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Decoding ConsumersAn Economic Profile of Mapping Consumers’ MindsetToday’s Consumer Regional breakdown of the three consumer categories Optimistic............. 18%All three consumer groups share the same Cautious................ 45%cloudy current assessment of the nation’s Optimistic............. 27% Hunkered-Down... 37%economy, but Optimistic Consumers and Cautious................ 40% Hunkered-Down... 33%Cautious Consumers have a more optimis-tic outlook for 2012. Forty-four percent ofOptimistic Consumers and 32 percent of Optimistic............. 20%Cautious Consumers expect the economy Cautious................ 41%to get better in 2012, while less than one Hunkered-Down... 39%out of five think the economy will getworse. Among Hunkered-Down Consumers,only 20 percent expect the economy to get Optimistic............. 20%better in 2012, while 36 percent expect Cautious................ 42%economic conditions to worsen. Hunkered-Down... 38% Optimistic Consumers also are muchmore upbeat and optimistic than the othertwo groups about their personal financial Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2011situation. Seventy-three percent of Optimis-tic Consumers describe their currentpersonal finances as “excellent” or “good,” financial situation will improve in 2012. Seventy-two percent of Optimistic Consum-compared with 48 percent of Cautious The most striking economic difference ers said their current spending levels onConsumers and just 20 percent of Hunkered- between the three consumer categories is things like restaurants, entertainment,Down Consumers. All three groups are their discretionary spending levels com- clothing and travel are about the same asgenerally optimistic that their personal pared with before the recession began. they were before the recession began. OnlyWho’s Seeing Green:An Economic Profile of Today’s Consumers Consumers who describe themselves as … OPTIMISTIC CAUTIOUS HUNKERED-DOWN Percent of all consumers 21% 42% 37% ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS Current state of the nation’s economy Excellent/Good..... 13% Excellent/Good....... 8% Excellent/Good........4% Fair/Poor............... 87% Fair/Poor................ 92% Fair/Poor................96% Outlook for economy in 2012 Get Better............. 44% Get Better............. 32% Get Better.............20% Get Worse............. 19% Get Worse............. 18% Get Worse.............36% Current state of personal finances Excellent/Good..... 73% Excellent/Good..... 48% Excellent/Good......20% Fair/Poor............... 26% Fair/Poor................ 52% Fair/Poor................80% Outlook for personal financial situation in 2012 Get Better............. 41% Get Better............. 30% Get Better.............31% Get Worse............... 1% Get Worse............... 5% Get Worse.............17% Current spending levels on things like restaurants, Higher................... 12% Higher..................... 8% Higher...................11% entertainment, clothing and travel compared Lower.................... 16% Lower.................... 51% Lower....................67% with before the recession About the Same.... 72% About the Same.... 40% About the Same....20%Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2011 www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 13
  • 16. Decoding Consumers 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast16 percent of Optimistic Consumers said spending, Cautious Consumers still have This is reflected in the sizable propor-their current spending levels are lower than restaurant patronage levels above the tion of consumers who said they wouldthey were before the recession began. overall average. In a typical month, like to patronize the restaurant industry In contrast, 51 percent of Cautious Cautious Consumers average 7.8 quickser- more frequently — particularly in theConsumers and 67 percent of Hunkered- vice occasions, 5.0 fullservice occasions and Hunkered-Down group. Fifty-six percent ofDown Consumers said their current 4.6 off-premises dinner occasions. Hunkered-Down Consumers said they arespending levels on those discretionary Although their spending levels are not eating on premises at restaurants anditems are lower than they were before the reduced in the current economic environ- fast-food places as often as they wouldrecession began. ment, Hunkered-Down Consumers haven’t like, while 54 percent reported similarly completely dropped off the restaurant radar. about ordering takeout or delivery.Consumers Still Hungry to Hunkered-Down Consumers average 4.3 This pent-up demand for restaurantDine Out quickservice occasions, 2.8 fullservice services also extends to the better-positionedThe good news for restaurant operators is occasions and 2.8 off-premises dinner groups, with more than one-third of Cautiousthat Optimistic Consumers are above-aver- occasions in a typical month, somewhat Consumers and roughly three out of 10age restaurant customers across the three below the national average in each category. Optimistic Consumers saying they are notmajor spending categories tracked in the Regardless of the economic challenges using on-premises or off-premises options as2012 Forecast. In a typical month, Optimis- and their impact on restaurant behavior in often as they would like. In addition, nearlytic Consumers average 7.9 quickservice the current environment, the most positive seven out of 10 Hunkered-Down Consumersoccasions, 6.2 fullservice occasions and 5.2 news is that the vast majority of consumers (68 percent) and 53 percent of Cautiousoff-premises dinner occasions. In compari- across all categories have positive feelings Consumers said they would eat out moreson, the overall adult population reported toward the restaurant industry. Ninety- often if they were financially able.averages of 6.0 quickservice occasions, 3.9 seven percent of Optimistic Consumers, These responses indicate that once thefullservice occasions and 3.4 off-premises 93 percent of Cautious Consumers and 89 economic environment improves, individuals indinner occasions in a typical month. percent of Hunkered-Down Consumers these consumer groups will eagerly resume Despite their partial pullback on said they enjoy going to restaurants. dining on premises, ordering in and taking out.Most Consumers StillEnjoy Going to Restaurants Consumers who describe themselves as … OPTIMISTIC CAUTIOUS HUNKERED-DOWN Percent of all consumers 21% 42% 37% RESTAURANT BEHAVIOR Average quickservice occasions per month 7.9 7.8 4.3 Average fullservice occasions per month 6.2 5.0 2.8 Average off-premises dinner occasions per month 5.2 4.6 2.8 Not eating on premises as often as they would like 28% 35% 56% Not ordering takeout/delivery as often as they would like 29% 34% 54% Would eat out more often if they were financially able 38% 53% 68% Enjoy going to restaurants 97% 93% 89%Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 201114 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 17. SECTION 12012EconomicOutlookWith many consumers remaining on the sidelines and other options foreconomic engines limited, the road ahead will be one of moderategrowth.
  • 18. Economic Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast It All Comes Down to Jobs The root cause of consumers’ pessimistic sentiment is the lack of significant job growth. The private sector added 1.9 million jobs during 2011, up from a gain of 1.2 million jobs in 2010. Despite the2012 Economic increase, the private sector is only about one-third of the way to replacing the more than 8.8 million jobs that were shed duringOutlook the recession. Even factoring in the expected stronger growth in the next couple of years, a full recovery from the jobs lost during the recession isn’t likely2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast until 2014. Counteracting the private-sector gains somewhat was a steady decline in public- sector employment, particularly on theEconomic second straight year, it wasn’t enough to produce jobs at a rate sufficient to put a state and local levels. Local governments have cut more than a half-million jobsRecovery Expected significant dent in unemployment. Indeed, the vast majority of U.S. since the beginning of the recession, as many cash-strapped municipalities dealto Continue consumers still have a bleak assessment with the impact of falling residentialDespite Risks of the nation’s economy. According to the Association’s 2011 National Household property values on their revenue collec- tions. Survey fielded in December 2011, more Overall, the public sector lost nearly than nine out of 10 adults gave the national 300,000 jobs during 2011, which damp-B y most measures, the national economy a rating of “poor” (65 percent) or ened the positive impact of the private- economy failed to gather a full “fair” (27 percent). Seven percent of adults sector gains. The net result is that more head of steam in 2011. Although described the economy as “good,” while than 13 million individuals were unem-overall economic output expanded for a only 1 percent gave it an “excellent” rating. ployed at the end of 2011, which although Job Growth Economic Growth Income GrowthEconomy Expected to Add Jobs More Green to Go Around Dollars and Senseat Strongest Rate Since 2006 Real Gross Domestic Product growth Real disposable personal income growthTotal U.S. employment growth 4.0% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.7% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 2.0% 1.3% 1.7% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0%–0.3% –0.3% –0.6% –0.8% –2.3% –3.5% –4.4%2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2003 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Restaurant Association Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Restaurant Association Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Restaurant Association*Projected *Projected *Projected16 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 19. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Economic Outlookdown from the peak of the recession, isstill persistently high. In addition, the Employment Where the Jobs – and Jobless – Aredepth of the unemployment problem islikely masked by the large number ofindividuals who have dropped out of the Help 8.0%labor force. Wanted 4.0%Moderate Growth Expected Job growth since the national employmentin 2012 recovery began in 3.6%With many consumers remaining on the March 2010 throughsidelines and other options for economic November 2011 3.5%engines limited, the road ahead will beone of moderate growth. There are still 3%+ 3.8% 3.4%considerable risks moving forward, 2%–2.9%including Europe’s fiscal crisis and the 1%–1.9%negative short-term impact if the payroll 0–0.9%tax holiday and emergency unemployment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, figures are seasonally adjustedbenefits are not extended through 2012. Perhaps the most important factor in Jobsgetting the economy back on track is thestabilization of the housing market. First, itgives consumers the wealth and confi- 3.4%dence to bolster spending levels. Second, Wanted 4.3%rising property values would increase local State unemployment 13.0% 4.1%government tax revenues and help them rates in Novemberadd back some of the half-million jobs they 2011 11.3%were forced to cut during the last threeyears. Finally, many small-business ownerslike restaurateurs use their home as <6%collateral for loans to expand and grow 6%–7.9%their business, so an improving housingmarket would open up an additional 8%–9.9% 10.0%source of capital. 10%+ Overall, the economic recovery remains Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, figures are seasonally adjustedshaky, but is expected to post somewhatstronger growth in 2012. Jobs: Although the economy will likelynot regain all the jobs lost during the J ust like Tip O’Neill said about politics, all economics is local. Although the economic recovery has thus far been sluggish on the national level—marred by persistently high unemployment rates—some regions of the country have experienced robustrecession until 2014, job growth is expect- growth during the last couple years.ed to improve in 2012. Total employment is From the beginning of the national employment recovery in March 2010 throughprojected to increase at a 1.3 percent rate November 2011, total employment in North Dakota jumped 8.0 percent, which wasin 2012, the strongest gain since 2006. double Utah’s gain — its closest competitor — of 4.0 percent. In total, only six statesHowever, the national unemployment rate saw job growth of at least 3 percent during this period, while 12 states experiencedwill likely remain elevated throughout the growth of less than 1 percent.year, as more people reenter the labor On the flip side, several states continue to be saddled with high unemployment ratesmarket. even though they are adding jobs. California added jobs at a 2.1 percent rate in the 21 GDP: Growth is expected to fall short of months since the national employment recovery began, yet still had an unemploymentthe levels needed for significant job rate of 11.3 percent in November 2011 — the second highest in the nation. Similarly, thecreation, but economic output is expected total number of jobs in Texas increased 3.8 percent between March 2010 and Novemberto improve during 2012. Overall, the 2011, but its jobless rate remained relatively high at 8.1 percent.National Restaurant Association expects real Overall, the state-level unemployment rates spanned nearly 10 percentage pointsGross Domestic Product (GDP) to increase at in November 2011, from a low of 3.5 percent in North Dakota to a high of 13.0a 2.5 percent rate in 2012, up from the 1.7 percent in Nevada. Although the recession was national, the recovery has largely beenpercent gain registered in 2011. regional to this point. www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 17
  • 20. Economic Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Income: As a result of a somewhat above the recent averages of $2.35 in 2009stronger jobs environment, income growth and $2.78 in 2010. The elevated levels ofis expected to improve from a sluggish pump prices will continue to put pressure2011 performance. The Association on cash-strapped consumers during the Restaurantprojects real disposable personal income to year ahead.increase at a 2.0 percent rate in 2012, up On the operational side, EIA is projecting Operators Ratefrom a modest 1.0 percent gain in 2011. modest increases in both electricity and the Economy natural gas prices for the commercial sector Restaurant operators’ assessment of theEnergy Prices Still Draining in 2012. Electricity prices are expected to nation’s economy is even bleaker thanBottom Line average 10.48 cents per kilowatt hour in that of consumers. In the Association’sEnergy prices are closely watched indica- 2012, up 1.1 percent from their 2011 level. Restaurant Trends Survey fielded intors for the restaurant industry, because Natural gas prices are projected to average December 2011, more than nine out of 10they impact both consumer demand and $9.21 per thousand cubic feet in 2012, a 2.2 restaurant operators gave the economy athe operational side of the business. In percent increase over 2011. rating of “poor” (45 percent) or “fair” (512012, energy prices are generally expected percent). Four percent of restaurantto remain elevated, according to the U.S. Food Prices Projected to operators described the economy asEnergy Information Administration (EIA). Remain Elevated in 2012 “good,” while none of the 845 survey On the consumer side, EIA expects gas Representing roughly 33 cents out of every respondents gave it an “excellent” rating.prices to average $3.45 in 2012. That dollar in restaurant sales, fluctuations in Looking forward to 2012, restaurantrepresents a slight drop from the record food costs have a significant impact on a operators’ outlook for the economy ishigh of $3.53 in 2011, but still will be well restaurant’s bottom line. mixed. Overall, roughly one out of four operators said the economy will get better in 2012, while one out of fiveAccess to Capital Remains expected economic conditions to worsen.Challenging Fine-dining operators are the most optimistic, with 38 percent expecting theO n top of the challenging economic environment, access to capital remains a significant issue for many restaurant operators. Rough-ly half of restaurant operators said it was more challenging to get economy to improve in 2012 and only 12 percent projecting it will worsen. In contrast, only 12 percent of family-diningcredit and financing in 2011 than it was in 2010, while only operators said the economy will getabout one out of 10 said it was less challenging. better in 2012, while 29 percent expected Quickservice and fast-casual operators were more likely to it will get worse.report problems getting access to capital — nearly six out of 10 said it was morechallenging in 2011 than it was in 2010. Dark Clouds Obtaining credit and financing also was more of an issue for franchisees than it was for on the Horizon?independent operators in 2011. Sixty-six percent of single-unit franchisees and 60 percent Restaurant operators’ outlook for theof multiunit franchisees said obtaining credit was more challenging in 2011 than it was in economy in 20122010. In comparison, less than half of independent operators reported similar difficulties. 38%Finding Ways to the Means 29%Restaurant operators’ assessment of obtaining credit and financing in 2011 25% 23%22% 21% 58% 56% 19% 53% 15% 46% 12% 12% 41% 14% 13% Family Casual Fine Quick- Fast 10% 8% Dining Dining Dining service Casual 5% Get Better in 2012 Family Dining Casual Dining Fine Dining Quickservice Fast Casual Get Worse in 2012 More Challenging in 2011 Less Challenging in 2011 Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2011Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 201118 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 21. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Economic Outlook Wholesale food prices continued tomarch steadily higher in 2011, and finished The Haves Have Lessthe year posting their strongest annualincrease in more than three decades. T he fallout from the Great Recession continued to be felt long after its “official” end, as Higher-income Households Are PrimeAverage wholesale food prices jumped 8.0 Restaurant Customerspercent in 2011, which represented the household income declined for the Share of total restaurant spending by householdstrongest gain since 1980, when prices rose third consecutive year in 2010, income levels8.1 percent. according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Rising food costs is nothing new for Real median household income wasrestaurant operators — 2011 marked the $49,445 in 2010, down 6.4 percentthird time in the last five years that from its recent cyclical high in 2007average wholesale food prices rose at least and its lowest level since 1996.7.6 percent. In total, the overall five-year Although the overall downwardincrease surpassed 26 percent. The only trend is a cause for concern, the sharpdecline was a 3.8 percent drop in 2009. decline in the number of higher- Looking ahead to 2012, commodity income households poses additionalprices are projected to be a mixed bag. The challenges for the restaurant industry.U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) After jumping 74 percent between $100k $70k $50k $30k Lessprojects continued gains in primary market 1990 and 2007 — the strongest or to to to Than More $99k $69k $49k $30kprices for beef in 2012, while broiler prices increase in any income category — the number of households with income of 37% 19% 15% 15% 15%also are expected to rise. In contrast, USDAexpects primary market prices for milk, more than $100,000 declined 5 percent Source: National Restaurant Association analysis of Bureau of Laborcheddar and butter to decline in 2012, between 2007 and 2010. During the Statistics data same three-year period, the number of -5after their strong double-digit percentgains in 2010 and 2011. households with income between The percent decline in the $75,000 and $99,999 also fell 5 number of households percent. In the end, there were 2 with income of more than million fewer households with income $100,000 between 2007 of more than $75,000 in 2010 than and 2010 there were in 2007. The potential implications for the restaurant industry are significant, as higher-income households represent the majority of spending in the industry. According to analysis of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, households with incomes of $100,000 or more are responsible for 37 percent of the total spending on food away from home, while households with incomes between $70,000 and $99,999 account for 19 percent of industry spending. As customer demographics vary across restaurants and segments, the recent shift in2012 Commodity Price household income has potential implications for spending patterns within the industry, particularly among fullservice operations that rely more heavily on higher-Outlook income households.Projected growth rates for primary marketprices Number of Higher-Income Households Declined 2010 2011 2012 Between 2007 and 2010 Number of U.S. households by income bracket (in millions) adjusted for inflation in 2010 dollars Beef 15% 20% 3% to 11% Pork 34% 20% –6% to 1% 1990 to 2007 to 1990 2007 2007 to 2010 2010 Broilers 7% –5% 1% to 8% Turkeys 14% 12% –6% to 2% Less than $25,000 24.0 14% 27.4 11% 30.5 Eggs 3% 7% –3% to –11% $25,000 to $49,999 25.0 14% 28.5 3% 29.4 Milk 27% 24% –6% to –10% $50,000 to $74,999 19.0 11% 21.0 0% 21.0 Cheddar 18% 20% –3% to –8% $75,000 to $99,999 11.6 23% 14.2 –5% 13.5 Butter 41% 16% –12% to –18% $100,000 or more 14.7 74% 25.6 –5% 24.3Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, November 2011 projections Source: National Restaurant Association analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 19
  • 22. Economic Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Travel An important driver of restaurant business Leveraging LoyaltyRecord Number of International Tourists O ne way to satisfy customers’ growing appetite for value while encouraging loyalty is through frequent-diner pro-Expected to Visit United States in 2012 grams. According to the Association’s 2011 Restaurant Trends Survey, 57 percent ofT ourism is an important driver of adults said they would be more likely to business across all of the major patronize an establishment that offers arestaurant segments. According to the customer-loyalty and -reward program.Association’s 2011 Restaurant Trends Approximately three out of 10 restau-Survey, travelers and tourists represent- rant operators are already taking advan-ed an average of 30 percent of sales for tage of this business-boosting promotionfine-dining operators, approximately 24 and offer a frequent-diner program.percent of sales for family-dining and Hungry Tourists Boostcasual-dining operators, and about 15 Restaurant Sales Time After Timepercent of sales for quickservice and Restaurant operators’ reporting of the Proportion of sales represented by travelersfast-casual operators during the last popularity of their frequent-diner program and tourists during the last 12-month period compared with two years ago12-month period. 30% 23% 24% 69% 67% However, this proportion was down 56% 52% 15% 14% 45%for many restaurant operators comparedwith recent years. Roughly three out of 7% 5% 4% 6% 5%10 restaurant operators said travelers Family Casual Fine Quick- Fast Dining Dining Dining service Casual Family Casual Fine Quick- Fastand tourists make up a smaller propor- Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Dining Dining Dining service Casualtion of sales than they did two years Survey, 2011ago, while only about 15 percent said More Popular Than Two Years Agothey constitute a larger share of sales. Less Popular Than Two Years Ago The good news for restaurant operators is that international tourism to the United Source: National Restaurant Association,States is expected to grow in the years ahead. According to the Office of Travel and Restaurant Trends Survey, 2011Tourism Industries (OTTI) within the U.S. Department of Commerce, a record 66.5million international visitors are projected to come to the United States in 2012, upfrom 63.2 million travelers in 2011. Approximately 36.6 million of these visitors areexpected to come from Canada and Mexico, while 29.9 million international travelers Reapingare projected to come from overseas. Retail Looking further down the road, OTTI expects 5 percent annual growth in interna- Rewardstional visitors during the next several years, which would result in more than 80million international visitors to the United States by 2016. In addition to passenger fares, international travelers to the United States are S ome restaurant operators are diversi- fying into the business of offering packaged food items for retail sale to helpexpected to spend well over $100 billion on tourism-related goods and services in their business stand out from the competi-2012, which provides tremendous opportunities for restaurant operators. tion. In addition to food items, a majority of restaurant operators said they offer United States a Destination of Choice merchandise for retail sales. for International Visitors International arrivals to the United States in millions 66.5 To Market, To Market 63.2 56.0 57.9 59.7 Proportion of restaurant operators that offer 55.0 49.2 51.0 packaged food items for retail sale 46.9 46.1 43.6 41.2 59% 54% 37% 41% 35% Family Casual Fine Quick- Fast 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012* Dining Dining Dining service Casual Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant TrendsSource: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Travel and Tourism Industries * Projected Survey, 201120 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 23. SECTION 22012FullserviceOutlookFullservice sales are projected to top $200 billion for the first timeon record.
  • 24. Fullservice Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast according to the Association’s Restaurant Trends Survey fielded in December 2011. When asked to describe business condi- tions for the overall U.S. restaurant industry in December, none of the more than 530 fullservice operators responding2012 Fullservice to the survey rated business conditions as “excellent.” In fact, more than eight out of 10 fullservice operators saidOutlook business conditions for the restaurant industry overall were either “fair” or “poor.” Fullservice operators are somewhat2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast more upbeat about their own restaurant business conditions, particularly among casual-dining and fine-dining operators; roughly one-half rated their own businessFullservice Association projects fullservice sales to total $201.4 billion in 2012, a 2.9 percent conditions as either “excellent” or “good.” Among family-dining operators, 31 percentSegment to Post gain over 2011’s sales volume of $195.7 billion. said business conditions for their restau- rant were either “excellent” or “good,”Sales Gains In inflation-adjusted terms, fullservice while seven out of 10 rated conditions as sales are expected to edge up 0.2 percent “fair” or “poor.” in 2012, down slightly from a 0.8 percent The economic environment continued real gain in 2011. to hound fullservice operators in 2011.T he fullservice segment is expected Sixty-five percent of family-dining opera- to register annual sales in excess of 2011 in Review tors said the economy was more challeng- $200 billion for the first time on Business conditions remained challenging ing than it was in 2010, while roughlyrecord in 2012. The National Restaurant for the fullservice segment in 2011, one-half of casual-dining and fine-dining Fullservice Operators’ Assessment of … … Industry’s Business Conditions Overall Fine Dining 16% 64% 20%The Bottom Line is Casual DiningBumpy 22% 65% 13%Fullservice operators’ reporting of their Family Dining 26% 64% 9%business in 2011 50% 45% 39% 35% 33% … Their Own Business Conditions 26% 29% 26% 17% Fine Dining 10% 40% 43% 7% Casual Dining Family Dining Casual Dining Fine Dining 13% 38% 41% 8% Better Than 2010 Family Dining About the Same as 2010 22% 47% 28% 3% Down From 2010 Poor Fair Good ExcellentSource: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant TrendsSurvey, 2011 Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 201122 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 25. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Fullservice Outlook Fullservice Operators Courting Customers Remains Challenging restaurants and other fullservice restau- rants.Attracting New Customers Bringing Back Repeat In the final tally, fullservice operators reported a mixed bag of sales results in Customers 60% 61% 2011. Fine-dining operators registered the 55% strongest results in 2011, with 50 percent reporting higher sales and just 17 percent reporting a sales decline. Casual-dining operators registered positive but some- 24% 23% 23% 24% 19% what softer results, with 45 percent 13% 7% reporting stronger business in 2011 and 26 4% 4% percent reporting lower sales. In contrast, only 26 percent of family- Family Dining Casual Dining Fine Dining Family Dining Casual Dining Fine Dining dining operators said their business was More Challenging in 2011 Less Challenging in 2011 better in 2011 than it was in 2010, while 35Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2011 percent said business was down from 2010. A Recurring Themeoperators reported similarly. Survey, seven out of 10 fullservice opera- As fullservice operators reported, it was As a result, it became harder for many tors agreed that their customers’ loyalty is more of a struggle to attract new custom-fullservice operators to build new business more difficult to maintain than it was two ers in 2011, making repeat customers evenin 2011. Roughly six out of 10 family-din- years ago. more important to the bottom line.ing and fine-dining operators said it was In addition to the difficulties of building According to the Association’s 2011more difficult to attract new customers in and maintaining sales volume, fullservice Restaurant Trends Survey, repeat custom-2011 than it was in 2010, while 55 percent operators dealt with considerable cost ers represent an average of 68 percent ofof casual dining operators agreed. pressures in 2011. Roughly eight out of 10 sales in the family-dining segment, 63 In contrast, it was easier to keep loyal family-dining and casual-dining operators percent of sales in the casual-diningcustomers coming back in, with only one and 71 percent of fine-dining operators segment and 56 percent of sales in theout of four fullservice operators saying it said it was more difficult to control costs in fine-dining segment.was more troublesome to attract repeat 2011, while less than one out of 20 said it Fullservice operators also reported thatcustomers in 2011. was easier to control costs. repeat customers make up a larger share Although it wasn’t as hard to generate Competitive pressures also intensified of their business than they did in recentrepeat business compared with attracting across the board compared with 2010, as years. Forty-seven percent of fine-diningnew customers, the competition for fullservice operators in each segment said operators and 41 percent of both family-consumers’ dollars remains fierce. In the it was harder in 2011 to compete with dining and casual-dining operators saidAssociation’s 2011 Restaurant Trends grocery stores, quickservice and fast-casual repeat customers constitute a larger shareDiners Rate the Importance of Restaurant Attributes Specialty of the House:Proportion of adults who gave the following attributes a rating of 8–10 on a scale from 0–10 Deja Vu Hunkered- Frequent Repeat customers’ share of total sales All Optimistic Cautious Down Fullservice compared with two years ago 47% 47% 47% Restaurant Attribute Adults Consumers Consumers Consumers Customers 41% 41% 38% Food quality 92% 91% 93% 93% 91% 15% Quality of service 82% 78% 82% 85% 86% 11% 11% Value received for price paid 79% 67% 80% 85% 79% Family Dining Casual Dining Fine Dining Atmosphere of the dining area 61% 56% 57% 68% 60% Family- or child-friendly 57% 48% 57% 61% 47% Larger Amount of Sales Length of time it takes 57% 55% 53% 62% 55% About the Same Amount of Sales Wide variety of menu items 47% 40% 49% 49% 50% Smaller Amount of Sales Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant TrendsSource: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2011 Survey, 2011 www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 23
  • 26. Fullservice Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry ForecastConsumers Crave ConvenienceProportion of adults likely to use the following off-premises options at fullservice restaurants Delivery from a Curbside Convenient Options Demographic Group Fullservice Restaurant Directly to Home or Office Takeout from a Fullservice Restaurant for Time-Crunched All adults 57% 53% Consumers Optimistic Consumers 52% 46% Today’s busy consumers Cautious Consumers 61% 56% are always looking for Hunkered-Down Consumers 56% 54% ways to save time, and one way fullservice Frequent fullservice customers 63% 54% restaurants can build Frequent quickservice customers 66% 62% business and turn tables Frequent off-premises dinner customers 72% 65% more quickly is to allowSource: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2011 customers to order in advance. In the Association’s 2011 National Household Survey, 53 percentof their total sales than they did two years Seventy-four percent of frequent fullser- of adults said that they would likelyago. In comparison, only about one out of vice customers said restaurants are an utilize the options of placing their order10 operators said repeat customers make essential part of their lifestyle, compared online in advance, scheduling a time toup a smaller share of their sales. with 41 percent of the general public. arrive at the restaurant and having their Because of the importance of repeat food come out shortly after they arecustomers to the success of Tempting Picky seated.fullservice restaurants, it is Palates Younger adults were much moreimperative that restaurant To attract both new and likely than older adults to say theyoperators appeal to repeat customers, fullser- would utilize this option. Sixty-eightfrequent diners. Frequent vice operators need to percent of adults between the ages offullservice customers — know what motivates them 18 and 34 and 64 percent of adultsthose who dine out at a when picking a restaurant. between the ages of 35 and 44 said theyfullservice restaurant more In the Association’s 2011 would use this option, compared withthan once a week on National Household Survey, 28 percent of adults age 65 and older.average — are much more consumers were given a list Frequent customers also were morelikely than the general of seven attributes and likely to say they would use this op-public to be well-posi- asked to rate each one on a tion—particularly those who are seeking 9 10tioned consumers and scale from 0 to 10 in terms convenience. Sixty-five percent ofconfident spenders in out of their importance when it frequent off-premises dinner customersthe current economic of comes to choosing a and 60 percent of frequent quickserviceenvironment. tableservice restaurant. customers said they would likely use this fullservice operators Forty percent of Not surprisingly, food option, while 57 percent of frequent report that theirfrequent fullservice quality is the most impor- fullservice customers reported similarly. customers have highercustomers are Optimistic tant fullservice attribute, expectations withConsumers compared with with more than nine out of No Time’s A Wasting regard to service than21 percent of all adults. 10 consumers across all Proportion of adults who said they would they did two years ago.These individuals are categories giving it a rating likely utilize the options of placing theirconfident in their financial of 8 to 10. The quality of order online in advance, scheduling a time to arrive at the restaurant, and having theirsituation and have not cut back on service also ranks high, particularly among food come out shortly after they are seatedspending, which is good news for fullser- frequent fullservice customers. Fullservice 68% 64%vice operators. In addition, only 18 percent operators seem well aware of this fact, with 51% 46%of frequent fullservice customers fall under roughly nine out of 10 of them reporting 28%the Hunkered-Down Consumer category that their customers have higher expecta-compared with 37 percent of the general tions with regard to service than they did 18 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or olderpublic. two years ago. Age Group These frequent diners are ultimately the Value remains king in today’s economy, Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2011core customer base in good times and bad. and more than nine out of 10 fullservice24 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 27. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Fullservice Outlookoperators said their customers are more Restaurants Take Conservationvalue-conscious than they were two yearsago. When rating fullservice restaurant Actions to Save Green Gattributes, 85 percent of Hunkered-Down oing green can help make green — both by saving money andConsumers and 80 percent of Cautious by attracting more customers, according to Association research.Consumers said the value received for the A majority of restaurant operators are planning to invest in green equipment andprice paid was important to them. In fixtures in 2012 to attract the 41 percent of adults who say they are likely to make acomparison, a somewhat lower 67 percent restaurant choice based on an operation’s conservation practices.of Optimistic Consumers said value was A solid majority of restaurant operators across all five major segments are planningimportant to them. to purchase energy-saving light fixtures in 2012. A majority of operators also are planning to invest in energy-saving kitchenBuilding Business Through equipment in 2012, led by 72 percent of casual-dining operators. Sixty-five percent ofOff-Premises Growth both quickservice and fast-casual operators said they plan to purchase energy-efficientOne way fullservice operators can bolster refrigeration, air conditioning or heating systems in 2012.business in a turbulent economic environ-ment is through off-premises traffic. In Zapping Energy Costs With Conservation Effortsthe Association’s 2011 National Household Proportion of restaurant operators planning to take the following actions in 2012Survey, 57 percent of adults said theywould be likely to use delivery from a Family Casual Fine Quick- Fast Dining Dining Dining service Casualfullservice restaurant, while 53 percentsaid they would likely use curbside Purchase energy-saving light fixtures 63% 68% 65% 76% 78%takeout from a fullservice restaurant. Purchase energy-saving kitchen equipment 61% 72% 58% 67% 73% The interest is even higher among Purchase energy-efficient refrigeration,frequent restaurant customers. Seventy- air conditioning or heating systems 53% 53% 57% 65% 65%two percent of frequent off-premisesdinner customers — those who purchase Install water-saving equipment or fixtures 42% 54% 52% 47% 48% Continued on page 26 Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2011Words to Live By Optimistic Consumers are more likely than the generalW ord of mouth is still consumers’ top source for making a restaurant choice — 93 percent of adults said they are likely to choose a restaurant they haven’t been tobefore based on a recommendation from a family member or friend. public to pick a restaurant based on social-media tools. Percent who said they are likely to Programs like Groupon and LivingSocial are growing in popularity, with 40 percent of choose a restaurant they haven’t beenadults saying they are likely to try a restaurant based on a special offer through such to before based on information fromprograms. However, Optimistic Consumers (33 percent) are much less likely than Cautious Facebook or Twitter: 34%Consumers (47 percent) to make restaurant choices based on those special offers.Psst, Eat Here … Pass It On LikeProportion of adults likely to use the following to choose a restaurant they haven’t been to before All Optimistic Cautious Hunkered-Down Adults Consumers Consumers Consumers Recommendation from a family member or friend 93% 94% 94% 91% Restaurant review in a newspaper or magazine 66% 69% 65% 66% Advertisement mailed to home 65% 63% 69% 60% Online dining guide 45% 46% 47% 43% Advertisement or promotion received via e-mail 41% 37% 46% 39% Special offer through programs like Groupon or LivingSocial 40% 33% 47% 35% Information on social-media sites such as Facebook and Twitter 28% 34% 28% 25%Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2011 www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 25
  • 28. Fullservice Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry ForecastContinued from page 25their dinner meal from a restaurant and Consumer demand is 0 t of 1eat it at home more than once a week on certainly on the rise for ouaverage — said they would likely use these high-tech options. ey ay th s ordelivery from a fullservice restaurantdirectly to their home or office. In Thirty-nine percent of adults said they would 4e op ors s erat s on iPa e rvice ine list l becom fulls nus/w daddition, 65 percent of off-premises likely use an electronic wil ture . e lets th ink m onic tab in the fudinner customers said they would use ordering system at a fullser- t r r elec pula taura nt e po l Res t Trendscurbside takeout from a fullservice vice restaurant, while 52 mor iona : Nat estauran cerestaurant. Sour tion, R percent said they would use an cia Asso , 2011 ey To meet this growing demand, many electronic payment system. Survfullservice operators are taking steps to Frequent quickservice andenhance their off-premises offerings. off-premises dinner customers areRoughly one-third of fullservice operators more likely than the general publicsaid they upgraded their takeout packag- to say they would use these conve-ing in 2011, while another three out of 10 nient items.said they plan to do so in 2012. Forty-six percent of adults said they would be likely to use a fullserviceAdding Technology to the restaurant’s smartphone application, and expect their sales to improve in 2012,Menu roughly one-half of operators agree that it while only 9 percent expect a decline.Technology is finding its place at the will be more popular in the future. In Family-dining operators are somewhattable, although operators say the use addition, six out of 10 fullservice operators more cautious, however, with 35 percentof high-tech items such as electronic said the ability to order online through a expecting business to be better in 2012ordering or payment systems and menus/ website will become more popular in the and 12 percent expecting a sales decline.wine lists on electronic tablets isn’t fullservice segment in the future. The road ahead will not be withoutcommonplace in the restaurant industry bumps though. Food costs and buildingat this point. A majority of fullservice The Future for Fullservice and maintaining sales volume topped theoperators said they think electronic Fullservice operators are generally list of challenges fullservice operatorspayment systems will become more optimistic that business conditions will expect to face in 2012. Only 3 percent ofpopular in the fullservice segment in improve in 2012. Fine-dining operators in family-dining and casual-dining operatorsthe future, while roughly four out of particular are bullish about 2012, with 51 and 5 percent of fine-dining operators10 responded similarly about electronic percent expecting their sales to be higher said recruiting and retaining employeesordering systems and menus/wine lists and just 4 percent expecting lower sales. will be the top challenge that theiron iPads or electronic tablets. Nearly one-half of casual-dining operators business faces in 2012. 2012 Business Outlook Optimism of Improving ConditionsFullservice Operators Are Food Costs Will Continue to Chop ALTHOUGHMore Optimistic About 2012 Into ProfitsFullservice operators’ business outlook for 2012 Top challenges expected by fullservice operators in 2012 52% 51% Family Casual Fine 47% 44% 45% Dining Dining Dining 35% Food costs 17% 22% 23% 12% 9% Building and maintaining sales volume 22% 14% 26% 4% The economy 16% 20% 21% Family Dining Casual Dining Fine Dining Operating costs 11% 17% 8% Better Than 2011 Government 8% 9% 7% About the Same as 2011 Competition 6% 3% 5% Down From 2011 Recruiting and retaining employees 3% 3% 5%Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2011 Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 201126 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 29. SECTION 32012Limited-ServiceOutlookLimited-service operators expect food costs to top their list ofchallenges in 2012.
  • 30. Limited-Service Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast percent said they were “good.” None gave a rating of “excellent.” Fast-casual operators were only slightly more upbeat, with 16 percent giving marks of “good.” When asked about business conditions for their own restaurant, limited-service2012 Limited-Service operators were somewhat more optimistic. Twelve percent of fast-casual operators said business conditions for their restau-Outlook rant were “excellent,” while 45 percent described them as “good.” Among quick- service operators, 4 percent said their business conditions were “excellent,”2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast while 37 percent rated them as “good.” The challenges experienced by limited- service operators were a reflection of an economy that struggled to shift into highT he limited-service eating-place billion. Cafeterias, grill-buffets and buffets gear. Six out of 10 limited-service operators segment1 is projected to register are projected to post sales of $8.5 billion in said general economic conditions posed a total sales of $209.9 billion in 2012, 2012, a 2.7 percent gain over 2011. greater challenge for them in 2011 than ita 3.2 percent increase over its 2011 sales of did in 2010, while less than 5 percent said$203.4 billion. In inflation-adjusted terms, 2011 in Review it wasn’t as challenging.limited-service sales are expected to Limited-service operators continued to The result was continued difficultyincrease 0.5 percent in 2012, down from a report a difficult business environment in building sales volume in 2011. Sixty-five1.1 percent gain in 2011. 2011. When asked in the Association’s 2011 percent of quickservice operators and 47 Within the broadly defined segment, Restaurant Trends Survey to rate business percent of fast-casual operators said it waslimited-service restaurant sales are conditions for the overall U.S. restaurant harder to attract new customers in 2011projected to total $173.8 billion in 2012, up industry, the vast majority gave ratings of than it was in 2010. Less than one out of3.1 percent from 2011. Snack-and-nonalco- “fair” or “poor.” 10 said attracting new customers was lessholic-beverage bars are expected to Among quickservice operators, 24 challenging in 2010.register the strongest growth at 4.1 percent said business conditions for the Like their fullservice counterparts,percent, with 2012 sales totaling $27.7 restaurant industry were “poor,” while 9 limited-service operators had a compara- Fast-Casual Limited-Service Operators’ Assessment of … Operators Set the Pace in 2011 … Industry’s Business Conditions Overall Limited-service operators’ reporting of their sales in 2011 Quickservice 24% 66% 9% 48% Fast Casual 34% 33% 33% 33% 16% 67% 16% 19% … Their Own Business Conditions Quickservice Fast Casual Quickservice 19% 40% 37% 4% Better Than 2010 Fast Casual About the Same as 2010 11% 32% 45% 12% Down From 2010 Poor Fair Good ExcellentSource: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant TrendsSurvey, 2011 Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 20111 The limited-service eating-place segment consists of three categories: limited-service restaurants, cafeterias, grill-buffets and buffets, and snack-and-nonalcoholic-beverage bars.28 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 31. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Limited-Service Outlooktively easier time sustaining repeat Cooking Up New operators is that frequent customers in theirbusiness in 2011. Thirty-eight percent ofquickservice operators and 32 percent of Business segment are in a financially better position in the current economic environment versusfast-casual operators said it was more of a Attracting Bringing the general public. Twenty-eight percent ofchallenge to bring back repeat customers New Back Repeat frequent quickservice customers (those whoin 2011, while less than one out of five said Customers Customers purchase a meal or snack from a fast-foodit wasn’t as challenging. 65% restaurant or carry-out place more than In addition to building and maintaining once a week on average) are Optimisticsales volume, limited-service operators 47% Consumers, compared with 21 percent ofstruggled with rising costs in 2011, 38% the general public. Similarly, Optimistic 32%particularly among food items. Eight out Consumers make up 29 percent of frequentof 10 limited-service operators said they 17% off-premises dinner customers — those who 13%had a more difficult time controlling costs 6% purchase their dinner meal from a restau-in 2011 than they did in 2010, while just 2 2% rant and eat it at home more than once apercent said it was less challenging. Quickservice Fast Casual Quickservice Fast Casual week on average. Competitive pressures also intensified Repeat customers have becomefor limited-service operators in 2011. Sixty More Challenging in 2011 accustomed to the convenience limited-percent of quickservice operators and 51 Less Challenging in 2011 service operations provide — in fact, 50percent of fast-casual operators said it was Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends percent of frequent off-premises dinnermore challenging trying to compete with Survey, 2011 customers and 48 percent of frequentother quickservice or fast-casual restau- quickservice customers said purchasingrants in 2011, while just 4 percent said it takeout food is essential to the way theywas less challenging. said it was less troubling. live. In comparison, 28 percent of the Limited-service operators also reported Overall, limited-service operators general public responded similarly.an uptick in competition with grocery stores. reported mixed sales results in 2011.Forty-seven percent of quickservice opera- Fast-casual operators set the pace in 2011, What Carrot Works Best?tors and 38 percent of fast-casual operators with 48 percent saying their business was Understanding what makes consumerssaid competition with grocery stores became up in 2010 and just 19 percent reporting a chose one restaurant over another can givestiffer in 2011, while less than one out of 10 sales decline. In contrast, 34 percent of limited-service operators an important quickservice operators reported higher edge in today’s hyper-competitive market. sales in 2011, while 33 percent reported The Association’s 2011 National Household lower sales. Survey sought to discover what motivates consumers by asking them to rate a list of A Symbiotic Relationship seven attributes on a scale from 0 to 10 in Repeat customers are the backbone of terms of each attribute’s importance when business for the limited-service segment. choosing a limited-service restaurant or According to the Association’s 2011 carry-out operation. Restaurant Trends Survey, repeat custom- Food quality topped the list of limited-We’ve Grown Accustomed ers represent an average of 74 percent of service restaurant attributes, with eightto Your Face sales for quickservice operators and 71 out of 10 consumers giving it a rating of 8Repeat customers’ share of total sales percent of sales for fast-casual operators. to 10, including both frequent quickservicecompared with two years ago Although it is becoming more challeng- customers and frequent off-premises 52% ing to keep them coming in — three out of dinner customers. 48% 39% 39% four limited-service operators said customer Value received for the price paid is an loyalty is more difficult to maintain than it important attribute for 74 percent of 13% was two years ago — these customers make adults. Optimistic Consumers (62 percent) 9% up a growing share of the limited-service were less likely to rate value as an impor- Quickservice Fast Casual segment’s customer base. Roughly one-half tant attribute, while Hunkered-Down of limited-service operators said repeat Consumers (84 percent) gave it a higher Larger Amount of Sales customers constitute a larger proportion of priority. About the Same Amount of Sales their total sales than they did two years Seventy-one percent of adults said the Smaller Amount of Sales ago, while about one out of 10 said they length of time it takes is an important make up a smaller share of sales. attribute when it comes to choosing aSource: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant TrendsSurvey, 2011 The good news for limited-service limited-service restaurant. Among frequent www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 29
  • 32. Limited-Service Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry ForecastRecipe for a Successful Limited-Service RestaurantProportion of adults who gave the following attributes a rating of 8 to 10 on a scale from 0 to 10 Frequent Frequent All Optimistic Cautious Hunkered-Down Quickservice Off-Premises Dinner Adults Consumers Consumers Consumers Customers Customers Food quality 80% 74% 78% 85% 82% 78% Value received for price paid 74% 62% 72% 84% 74% 72% Length of time it takes 71% 68% 71% 72% 75% 75% Quality of Service 69% 62% 66% 76% 69% 70% Family- or child-friendly 51% 43% 50% 55% 49% 50% Wide variety of menu items 45% 37% 44% 50% 42% 43% Atmosphere of dining area 41% 35% 34% 50% 37% 39%Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2011customers, 75 percent said this was animportant. Working — and Eating — 9 to 5Time-Saving OfferingsA hallmark of the limited-service segment T ime-pressed workers who rely on restaurants for a quick bite between meetings and project deadlines have been a boon to the industry. Even though the economy has slowed, full-timeis fast and convenient service, and many workers still remain prime restaurant customers, according to theconsumers are interested in options that Association’s 2011 National Household Survey.will make their experience even more When asked if they utilize restaurant services during a typicalconvenient. Fifty-three percent of adults five-day workweek, 59 percent of full-time workers said theysaid they would likely use delivery directly purchase carry-out lunch from a restaurant or fast-food place atto their home or office if it was offered by least once a week. Fifty percent of full-time workers eat lunch ona limited-service restaurant. The option is premises at least once a week, while 19 percent said they haveeven more popular among frequent their lunch delivered at least once a week.customers, with 64 percent of frequent Forty-one percent of full-time employees said they purchase aoff-premises dinner customers and 60 breakfast meal, snack or beverage on the way into work at least oncepercent of frequent quickservice customers a week, while 41 percent purchase a morning or afternoon beveragesaying they would likely use this option. or snack during their workday. Convenient ordering options also are And who wants to cook after a long day at work? According to the Nationalpopular among consumers, with four out Household Survey, 46 percent of full-time workers opt to purchase dinner from aof 10 adults saying they would be likely to restaurant, fast-food place or other foodservice location on the way home fromorder online through a website or via a work at least once a week, rather than deal with the hassle of cooking a meal andsmartphone application. Once again, cleaning up.frequent customers are much more likelyto prefer these options at limited-service Desk-Top Diningrestaurants than the general public. Proportion of full-time workers who purchase the following meals during a typical 5-day workweekLimited-service operators confirm this All 18- 35- 45- 55-growing trend, as more than eight out of Adults Male Female 34 44 54 6410 operators said these ordering optionswill become more popular in the future. Breakfast meal/snack/beverage If a high-tech ordering option isn’t on the way to work 41% 48% 31% 55% 37% 35% 32%available, consumers are interested in Carry-out lunch 59% 64% 52% 66% 60% 54% 55%more efficient options within the restau- On-premises lunch 50% 52% 46% 59% 42% 49% 49%rant. Four out of 10 adults said they would Delivery lunch 19% 20% 17% 24% 19% 17% 13%likely use a self-service customer-activated Morning/afternoon beverage/snack 41% 46% 34% 44% 42% 40% 38%ordering terminal if it was offered by alimited-service restaurant. Sixty percent of Dinner on way home from work 46% 46% 46% 49% 48% 46% 41%fast-casual operators and 53 percent of Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2011 Continued on page 3230 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 33. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Limited-Service Outlook Around the Web Increasing Use of the Web to Enhance Restaurant ExperienceCUOL Connecting With Customers in 140 Characters Proportion of restaurant operators likely to use the following social-media tools in the next two years(See You Online) 96% 91% 91%R 90% 87% 86% estaurants are increasingly using 83% 80% 75% 77% 77% 73% 71% social media to connect with tech- 65% 65%savvy customers. According to the Associa- 51%tion’s 2011 Restaurant Trends Survey, nineout of 10 restaurant operators thinksocial-media tools such as Facebook andTwitter will become more important Facebook Online review Smartphone Twitter Text YouTube or Restaurant Flickr or othermarketing tools in the future. The use of sites such as Yelp applications messaging other video- blog photo-sharingsmartphone applications also is expected sharing site siteto grow in popularity, as is the use of Quickservice Fast CasualTwitter and text messaging. Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2011 Google ItC onvenience-minded consumers are turning to the Internet to enhancetheir restaurant experience. Six out of 10 learn more about a restaurant they haven’t been to before. Frequent customers are more likely than Forty-six percent of frequent off-premises dinner customers said they have used the Internet to place an order for dine-in,adults say they have used the Internet to the general public to go online to check carry-out or delivery — 10 percentagevisit a restaurant website, view a menu or out an eatery or place a food order. points higher than the general public.Netting Restaurant InformationProportion of adults who have used the Internet for the following activities Frequent Frequent Frequent Off- All Optimistic Cautious Hunkered-down Fullservice Quickservice Premises Dinner Adults Consumers Consumers Consumers Customers Customers Customers Visit restaurant website 61% 64% 68% 53% 71% 74% 69% View restaurant menu 59% 61% 64% 53% 65% 66% 66% Get information about restaurant before visiting 57% 55% 65% 50% 61% 67% 61% Place dine-in, carry-out or delivery order 36% 37% 39% 33% 38% 43% 46% Search for nutritional information 36% 35% 40% 33% 41% 45% 44% Make reservations 27% 29% 34% 19% 35% 34% 35% Post or read restaurant reviews on consumer-driven websites such as Yelp 27% 28% 31% 24% 32% 35% 30% View restaurant fan sites and pages on Facebook, MySpace or YouTube 19% 22% 20% 17% 24% 23% 27% Purchase merchandise from restaurant website 13% 14% 14% 13% 16% 14% 15% Follow restaurant on Twitter 5% 9% 4% 3% 8% 6% 8%Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2011 www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 31
  • 34. Limited-Service Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry ForecastContinued from page 30quickservice operators said the use of More than nine out of 10 operatorsself-service ordering terminals will become across all segments said their restaurantmore popular within their respective will likely be using Facebook in the next year or two.segments in the future. Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2011Taking a Look AheadLimited-service operators are generally operators, 45 percent expect their sales to fast-casual operators saying it will be theoptimistic that business conditions will be higher in 2012; 9 percent think business number-one challenge they face in 2012. Aimprove in 2012. Fifty-two percent of will be down in 2012. less troublesome challenge is expected to befast-casual operators expect their business Despite the optimistic outlook, there will recruiting and retaining employees; only 5to be better in 2012 than it was in 2011, be obstacles to overcome in 2012. Food costs percent of fast-casual operators and 2while just 3 percent think business will be lead the list of concerns, with 30 percent of percent of quickservice operators named itdown in 2012. Among quickservice quickservice operators and 26 percent of as the top challenge in 2012.Convenience Is King at Limited-Service RestaurantsProportion of adults likely to use the following options at limited-service restaurants Smartphone Application Place With Features Place Order Delivery Order Online Such as Viewing Via a Self-service Directly to Through a Menu and Ordering Customer-activated Home or Office a Website Takeout or Delivery Ordering Terminal All Adults 53% 40% 38% 41% Optimistic Consumers 51% 41% 35% 44% Cautious Consumers 53% 45% 43% 44% Hunkered-Down Consumers 53% 36% 33% 36% Frequent fullservice customers 57% 49% 45% 44% Frequent quickservice customers 60% 54% 51% 48% Frequent off-premises dinner customers 64% 58% 46% 47%Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2011 2012 Business Outlook Optimism for Improving ConditionsLimited-Service Operators Clouds in My Coffee ALTHOUGHUpbeat About 2012 Top challenges expected by limited-service operators in 2012Limited-service operators’ outlook for their business Quick- Fastin 2012 service Casual 52% 45% 46% 45% Food costs 30% 26% Building and maintaining sales volume 17% 18% 9% The economy 17% 18% 3% Operating costs 13% 9% Quickservice Fast Casual Access to capital 4% 9% Better Than 2011 Government 6% 6% About the Same as 2011 Recruiting and retaining employees 2% 5% Down From 2011 Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2011Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 201132 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 35. SECTION 42012OtherFoodserviceSegmentsNon-restaurant foodservice operators are upbeat about businessconditions.
  • 36. “Other” Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast operators described current industry business conditions as “fair” or “poor,” while none gave conditions a rating of “excellent.” Operators in these segments are somewhat more upbeat about their own2012 Other Foodservice business conditions. One out of four noncommercial operators (24 percent) said their own business conditions areSegments Outlook “excellent,” while another 38 percent describe them as “good.” Nearly two- thirds of managed-services operators said their business conditions are either2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast “good” or “excellent,” while 43 percent of caterers assessed their own business as “good.” Managed-service operators are theF oodservice segments outside of educational, governmental or institutional most optimistic looking ahead to 2012, traditional restaurant operations organizations that operate their own with 35 percent expecting business to be are expected to enjoy positive foodservice, is projected to post sales of better than 2011 and only 4 percentsales gains in 2012. Social caterers are $54.2 billion in 2012, a 3.7 percent expecting business to drop. Similarly, 29projected to post sales of $7.9 billion in increase over 2011. In real terms, sales are percent of noncommercial foodservice2012 — a robust 5.6 percent increase over expected to gain 0.9 percent in 2012. operators think their business will rise in2011 levels. In inflation-adjusted terms, Similar to the rest of the industry, 2012, while 5 percent expect a downturn.sales in the social caterer segment are foodservice operators in non-restaurant Caterers are somewhat more cautiousexpected to rise 2.9 percent in 2012. segments are feeling the pinch from a in their expectations, with 29 percent The managed-services segment — also bumpy economy. Roughly two-thirds of projecting business will be better in 2012referred to as onsite foodservice and caterers, noncommercial foodservice and 21 percent predicting business will befoodservice contractors — is expected to operators and managed-services down in 2012.register sales of $44.4 billion in 2012, a 4.3percent gain above 2011 levels. Afteradjusting for inflation, sales are projected Foodservice Operators’ Assessment of …to rise 1.4 percent in 2012. The noncommercial foodservicesegment, which includes businesses, … Industry’s Business Conditions Overall Managed Services 4% 61% 35%Getting a Read On 2012 Noncommercial FoodserviceFoodservice operators’ outlook for business 5% 67% 29%in 2012 Caterers 67% 61% 14% 50% 36% 50% 35% 29% 29% … Their Own Business Conditions 21% Managed Services 4% 5% 4% 30% 61% 4% Managed Services Noncommercial Caterers Noncommercial Foodservice Foodservice 38% 38% 24% Better Than 2011 Caterers About the Same as 2011 21% 36% 43% Down From 2011 Poor Fair Good ExcellentSource: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant TrendsSurvey, 2011 Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 201134 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 37. SECTION 52012Food andMenu TrendsFor the third consecutive year, healthful kids’ meals topped the list ofhot trends on limited-service menus, according to the Association’s 2011Restaurant Trends Survey.
  • 38. Food and Menu Trends 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast2012 Food and Menu Fullservice Restaurant Trends for 2012Trends2012 Restaurant Industry ForecastLocally Sourced and a similar proportion plan to do so in 2012. Eighty-three percent of quickserviceFood Will Remain operators and 77 percent of fast-casual operators said they plan to expand their 1 Locally sourced meats and seafoodHot in 2012 food offerings in 2012. 2 Locally grown produce Fine-dining operators are the most 3 Healthful kids’ meals likely to expand the beverage menu, withT oday’s restaurant customers are more than nine out of 10 adding libations 4 Hyper-local sourcing hungry for the latest trends and in 2011 and planning to add more in 2012. (e.g., restaurant gardens) eager to test their knowledge of Roughly one-half of quickservice operators 5 Sustainabilityfood and beverages. Restaurateurs who added beverages in 2011 and plan to do so 6 Children’s nutritionupdate their menus to reflect the latest again in 2012.taste sensations — while keeping their 7 Gluten-free/food allergy consciousregulars happy — will have an edge over Hot Plates 8 Locally-produced wine and beertheir competitors. The National Restaurant Association’s 9 Sustainable seafood Nine out of 10 operators in both “What’s Hot in 2012” survey of nearly 10 Whole grain items in kids’ mealsfullservice and limited-service segments 1,800 professional chef members of thesaid their customers are more knowledge- American Culinary Federation found that 11 Newly fabricated cuts of meatable and sophisticated about food and children’s nutrition and local sourcing will (e.g., Denver steak, pork flat iron,beverages than ever, prompting restaura- be the hottest trends on restaurant menus Petite Tender)teurs to incorporate new items. A majority in 2012. 12 Farm/estate-branded ingredientsof fullservice operators (nine out of 10) The top-10 menu trends for 2012 are 13 Food trucks/street foodsaid they added new food items in 2011 locally sourced meats and seafood, locally 14 Micro-distilled/artisan spirits 15 Artisan/house-made ice creamTasteful Additions 16 Health/nutritionProportion of operators who added new food/beverage items in 2011 or plan to add new 17 Non-traditional fish (e.g., branzino, items in 2012 Arctic char, barramundi) Family Casual Fine Quick- Fast 18 Fruit/vegetable children’s side items Dining Dining Dining service Casual 19 “Mini meals” (e.g., smaller versions Added new food item in 2011 92% 90% 98% 86% 79% of adult menu items) Added new beverage item in 2011 72% 81% 94% 51% 74% 20 Culinary cocktails (e.g., savory, Plan to add new food item in 2012 92% 92% 99% 83% 77% fresh ingredients, herb-infused) Plan to add new beverage item in 2012 73% 84% 97% 47% 55% Source: National Restaurant Association, “What’s Hot in 2012” Chef Survey, 2011Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 201136 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 39. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Food and Menu Trendsgrown produce, healthful kids’ meals, A Hankering for Home-Grown Foodhyper-local items, sustainability as aculinary theme, children’s nutrition as aculinary theme, gluten-free/food-allergy- C onsumer demand for locally sourced food items continues to grow, with 72 percent of adults saying they are more Seeds of Change Proportion of operators who said theirconscious items, locally produced wine and customers are more interested in locally likely to visit a restaurant that offers locally sourced menu items in 2011 than twobeer, sustainable seafood, and whole-grain produced food items. Operators confirm years agoitems in kids’ meals. 83% this trend, as 83 percent of fine-dining Rounding out the top-20 hot menu 71% operators and 71 percent of casual-diningtrends are newly fabricated cuts of meat, 47% 54% operators said their customers are more 42%farm/estate-branded items, food trucks/ interested in locally sourced menu itemsstreet food, artisan spirits, house-made/ than they were two years ago. Demand forartisan ice cream, health/nutrition as a locally sourced items is not as strong in theculinary theme, nontraditional fish, fruit/ Family Casual Fine Quick- Fast family-dining and limited-service segments. Dining Dining Dining service Casualvegetable kids’ side dishes, children’s mini To meet the growing consumer demand,meals (smaller versions of adult menu Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends many operators are adding locally sourced Survey, 2011items), and culinary cocktails. food items to their menus, particularly in The “What’s Hot in 2012” survey also the fullservice segment. Eighty-sevenscouted out technology trends impacting percent of fine-dining operators offer addition, one out of four fine-diningthe industry. About one-quarter of the locally sourced produce, while 73 percent operators said they offer food items fromchefs (26 percent) ranked smartphone apps offer locally sourced meat or seafood. In an on-site garden at their restaurant.(applications) as the hottest technologytrend in restaurants in 2012; another 25percent said tablet computers — such asusing iPads for menus and wine lists — willbe the top technology trend. Sixteenpercent said social media would be the toptrend, while the same percentage saidmobile/wireless/pay-at-the-table paymentoptions would be the most popular and 4percent picked QR codes. The Association surveyed 1,791 Ameri-can Culinary Federation member chefsfrom October to November 2011 and askedthem to rate 223 individual food items,beverages, cuisines and culinary themes asa “hot trend,” “yesterday’s news” or Picked Fresh“perennial favorite” on restaurant menus Proportion of restaurant operators offering the following food itemsin 2012. For complete What’s Hot in 2012” Family Casual Fine Quick- Fast Dining Dining Dining service Casualsurvey results, video and downloadableimages, go to www.restaurant.org/ Locally sourced produce 56% 63% 87% 28% 45%foodtrends. Locally sourced meat or seafood 38% 54% 73% 10% 15% Food items from an on-site garden 9% 8% 25% 2% 2%Healthful Kids Meals StillLead Limited-Service Menu Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2011TrendsFor the third consecutive year, healthfulkids’ meals topped the list of hot trends Healthy fare for kids dominated the produce ranked fifth and locally sourcedon limited-service menus, according to the limited-service list, with fruit/vegetable meat/seafood ranked 11th on the list ofAssociation’s 2011 Restaurant Trends Survey. sides in kids’ meals ranking second, and hot limited-service menu items. OtherLimited-service operators were asked to low-fat/nonfat milk or 100 percent juice dishes making the top 10 were gluten-freerate a list of 68 food and beverage menu options in kids’ meals coming in fourth. items, lower-sodium items, spicy items,items as a “hot trend,” “yesterday’s news” The limited-service segment also is on lower-calorie items, mini desserts/dessertor “perennial favorite” for 2012. the quest for local items — locally sourced bites, and lower-fat items. www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 37
  • 40. Food and Menu Trends 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Consumers Lean Limited-Service Menu Trends Towards Healthful FoodsLimited-ServiceRestaurant Trendsfor 2012 A lthough the rocky economy may make customers crave comfort food, a solid majority of consumers said they are 1 Healthful kids’ meals leaning toward healthier items when Inventive new dishes help keep limited- dining out. According to the Association’s 2 Fruit/vegetable sides in kids’ meals service menus fresh and exciting, but 2011 National Household Survey, 72 3 Gluten-free items percent of adults said they are trying to perennial favorites still have their loyal 4 Low-fat/non-fat milk or 100% juice fans. Soft drinks and French fries topped eat healthier now at restaurants than they options in kids’ meals the list of perennial favorites at limited- did two years ago. Women (78 percent) 5 Locally-sourced produce service restaurants, followed by iced tea, were more likely than men (65 percent) to beef items, poultry items, hamburgers agree with that statement, while younger 6 Lower-sodium items and cheeseburgers, chicken sandwiches, adults are more likely than older adults to 7 Spicy items make that claim. A majority of restaurant side salads, bottled water, and milk. 8 Lower-calorie items operators across all segments concur that 9 Mini-desserts/dessert bites Limited Service customers are paying more attention to the nutritional content of their food than 10 Lower-fat items Perennial Favorites they did two years ago. 11 Locally-sourced meat or seafood 1 Soft drinks 12 Sustainable food items 2 French fries Healthful Choices 13 Whole grain bread 3 Iced tea Proportion of adults trying to eat healthier now at restaurants than they did two years 14 Artisan/house-made items 4 Beef items ago 15 Snack-sized items 5 Poultry items 74% 73% 76% 72% 65% 16 Energy drinks 6 Hamburgers/cheeseburgers 17 Flavored/enhanced water 7 Chicken sandwiches 18 Organic items 8 Side salads 19 “Build-your-own” items 9 Bottled water 20 Sweet potato fries 10 Milk 18 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or Older Age GroupSource: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant TrendsSurvey, 2011 Survey, 2011 Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2011Making Room at the Table for Mother Nature More information onT he interest in environmentally friendly dining continues to grow, particularlyin higher-check fullservice restaurants, More Consumers Relish Green Cuisine healthful kids’ meals … The National Proportion of operators who said theiraccording to the Association’s 2011 Restaurant customers are more interested in AssociationRestaurant Trends Survey. Fifty-eight environmentally sustainable menu items launched thepercent of fast-casual operators said their in 2011 than two years ago Kids LiveWell program in 2011 in collabora-customers are more interested in environ- 78% tion with Healthy Dining to help parents andmentally friendly menu items, while 67% children select healthful menu options when 58%roughly one-half of quickservice and 47% 50% dining out. Restaurants that participate in the voluntary program commit to offeringfamily-dining operators reported similarly. healthful meal items for children, with a From the consumer perspective, 55 particular focus on increasing consumption ofpercent of adults said they are more likely fruit and vegetables, lean protein, whole Family Casual Fine Quick- Fastto visit a restaurant that offers food that Dining Dining Dining service Casual grains and low-fat dairy, and limitingwas grown or raised in an organic or unhealthy fats, sugars and sodium. Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trendsenvironmentally friendly way. Survey, 2011 Visit www.restaurant.org/kidslivewell.38 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 41. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Food and Menu Trends2012 Top Trends by Category Appetizers Preparation Methods Ethnic Cuisines and 1 Vegetables/vegetarian appetizers 1 Pickling Flavors2 Ethnic/street food-inspired appetizers 2 Fermenting 1 Ethnic fusion cuisine (e.g., tempura, taquitos, kabobs) 3 Sous Vide 2 Peruvian cuisine3 Charcuterie plates/samples 4 Liquid nitrogen chilling/freezing 3 Regional ethnic cuisine4 Amuse-bouche/bite-size hors d’oeuvre 5 Oil-poaching 4 Cuban cuisine5 Warm appetizer salads 5 Southeast Asian cuisine (e.g., Thai, Breakfast/Brunch Vietnamese, Malaysian) Sides/Starches 1 Ethnic-inspired breakfast items1 Non-wheat noodles/pasta (e.g., Asian-flavored syrups, chorizo Other Food Items/ (e.g., quinoa, rice, buckwheat) scrambled eggs, coconut milk pancakes) Ingredients2 Black/forbidden rice 2 Traditional ethnic breakfast items 1 Artisan/specialty bacon3 Quinoa (e.g., huevos rancheros, shakshuka, ashta, Japanese) 2 Artisan cheeses4 Red rice 3 Fresh fruit breakfast items 3 Ancient grains (e.g., khorasan wheat,5 Vegetable pickles spelt, amaranth) 4 Prix fixe brunches 4 Greek yogurt 5 French toast/stuffed French toast Desserts 5 Ethnic cuisine cheeses (e.g., queso fresco, paneer, lebneh, halloumi)1 Artisan/house-made ice cream Kids’ Meals2 Bite-size/mini-desserts3 Savory desserts 1 Healthful kids’ meals Culinary Themes 2 Whole grain items in kids’ meals4 Deconstructed classic desserts 1 Hyper-local sourcing (e.g., restaurant 3 Fruit/vegetable children’s side items gardens)5 Dessert flights/combos 4 “Mini meals” (e.g., smaller versions of 2 Sustainability adult menu items) Main Dishes/ 5 Oven-baked items in kids’ meals 3 Children’s nutrition Center of the Plate (e.g., baked chicken fingers, oven- 4 Gluten-free/food allergy conscious baked fries) 5 Farm/estate-branded ingredients1 Locally sourced meats and seafood2 Sustainable seafood3 Newly fabricated cuts of meat Produce (e.g., Denver steak, pork flat iron, 1 Locally grown produce Download the full Petite Tender) 2 Organic produce results of the National4 Non-traditional fish (e.g., branzino, Restaurant Association’s 3 Superfruits (e.g., acai, goji berry, “What’s Hot in 2012” Arctic char, barramundi) mangosteen) Chef Survey plus watch5 Half-portions/smaller portion sizes 4 Exotic fruits (e.g., rambutan, dragon and share the videos at fruit, paw paw, guava) www.restaurant.org/ foodtrends. 5 Heirloom applesSource: National Restaurant Association, “What’s Hot in 2012” Chef Survey, 2011 www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 39
  • 42. Food and Menu Trends 2012 Restaurant Industry ForecastWheels of Change Move Slowlyfor Food Trucks Local Libations Find out the Liven Up latest food Beverage Menus truck trends More consumers are Plan to visit the “Food making toasts with Truck Spot” at NRA drinks produced locally, Show 2012. according to chefs www.restaurant.org/ surveyed by the show Association. More than seven out of 10 chefs said the hottestF ood trucks are making inroads among some consumers, but have yet to enjoy widespread appeal. According to the Association’s 2011 Restaurant Trends Survey, 6percent of quickservice operators and 4 percent of fast-casual operators said they alcoholic beverage trend is locally produced wine and beer.currently operate a food truck. In comparison, only 3 percent of casual-dining operators,2 percent of family-dining operators and less than 1 percent of fine-dining operators saidthey operate a food truck. Alcoholic Fast-casual operators (22 percent) are the most likely to say they will start up a food Beveragetruck in the next year or two, while 13 percent of quickservice and family-dining opera- Trends for 2012tors said they are likely to start up a food truck. 1 Locally produced wine and beer At present, many operators consider food trucks competition and are not expandingtheir business via such an outlet. In fact, most fullservice operators do not believe food 2 Micro-distilled/artisan spiritstrucks will become more popular within their segment in the future. Only 16 percent of 3 Culinary cocktails (e.g., savory, freshfine-dining operators and nearly three out of 10 family-dining and casual-dining opera- ingredients, herb-infused)tors think food trucks will grow in popularity in their segments. A higher proportion of 4 Food-beer pairings/beer dinnersfast-casual (47 percent) and quickservice operators (43 percent) think food trucks will 5 Onsite barrel-aged drinksbecome more popular in their segments. 6 Bar chefs/mixologists 7 Gluten-free beerTaking It to the Streets 8 Specialty beer (e.g., seasonal, fruit,Operators’ usage of food trucks in their existing restaurant operations spiced) Family Casual Fine Quick- Fast 9 Organic wine Dining Dining Dining service Casual 10 Craft beer/microbrews Currently operate a food truck 2% 3% <1% 6% 4% Source: National Restaurant Association, “What’s Hot in Very or somewhat likely to start up a 2012” chef survey, 2011 food truck in the next year or two 13% 11% 6% 13% 22% Expect food trucks will become more Nonalcoholic popular within their segment in the future 26% 29% 16% 43% 47% Beverage How Operators Feel About Food Trucks Trends for 2012 Food trucks are a good way to expand 1 House-made soft drinks/soda/pop a restaurant’s business 25% 26% 20% 40% 36% 2 Specialty iced tea (e.g., Thai-style, Food trucks are an added layer of Southern/sweet, flavored) competition to your business 45% 48% 38% 52% 45% 3 Gourmet/house-made lemonade Food trucks are a fad that will likely go away soon 28% 29% 37% 27% 25% 4 Organic coffee Food trucks are a good way to meet 5 Dairy-free milk (e.g., soy, rice) customers where they are 26% 26% 28% 30% 36% Source: National Restaurant Association, “What’s Hot in 2012” chef survey, 2011Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 201140 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 43. SECTION 62012WorkforceOutlookRestaurant industry job growth is expected to outpace the overalleconomy for the 13th consecutive year.
  • 44. Workforce Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast the national job growth followed three years of more significant jobs losses: -0.6 percent in 2008, -4.4 percent in 2009, and -0.8 percent in 2010. Within the industry, job growth was broad-based in 2011, as the fullservice,2012 Workforce quickservice, and snack-and-nonalcoholic- beverage-bar segments all added jobs at rates above the overall economy.Outlook No Lost Decade for the Restaurant Industry The restaurant industry’s 2011 perfor-2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast mance marked the 12th consecutive year in which job growth outpaced the overall economy. Indeed, one only has to look at recent history to see that the restaurantA fter two industry is an engine of job growth for the Total Restaurant-and- consecutive U.S. economy, even when many other years of job Foodservice Employment industries are shedding jobs.losses—and only the 14.3 million During the challenging economic period 12.9 millionthird total year on 11.4 million of the last 11 years that included tworecord—the recessions, job growth in the U.S. economyrestaurant industry stagnated. In fact, excluding eating-and-rebounded with a drinking places, there were 1.8 millionsolid employment 2002 2012* 2022* fewer private-sector jobs in the economy ingain in 2011. Source: National Restaurant Association * Projected December 2011 than there were in JanuaryEating-and-drinking 2000 — a decline of 1.8 percent.places, which In contrast, eating-and-drinking placesrepresent approximately three-fourths of declines in 2009 and 2010, respectively. added 1.5 million jobs during the samethe total restaurant-and-foodservice In comparison, total U.S. employment period, which represented an increase ofworkforce, added jobs at a 1.9 percent rate grew at a 1.0 percent rate in 2011, nearly a nearly 19 percent. This substantial growthin 2011. The healthy 2011 gain came on full percentage point below the gain in occurred despite back-to-back job losses inthe heels of 2.1 percent and 0.5 percent eating-and-drinking place jobs. Moreover, 2009 and 2010, when the restaurant industry was negatively impacted by the recession.Restaurant Job Growth Set to Outpace OverallEconomy for 13th Straight Year Industry Jobs to Drive the RecoveryAnnual job growth — eating-and-drinking places versus total U.S. employment The restaurant industry not only provided 2.3% 1.9% much-needed job growth during the 1.0% 1.3% sluggish last decade, it also is poised to 0.1% post steady growth well into the future. The Association expects eating-and-drink- –0.6% –0.5% ing places to add jobs at a 2.3 percent rate –0.8% in 2012, a full percentage point above the –2.1% projected 1.3 percent gain in total U.S. employment. In addition, eating-and-drinking places –4.4% are expected to gain back all of the jobs 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* lost during the recession by early 2012, while the overall economy likely won’t be Total U.S. Employment Eating-and-Drinking Place Employment back to its pre-recession employment levelSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Restaurant Association * Projected until 2014.42 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 45. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Workforce OutlookSteady Job Growth Ahead and service. These positions are expected Restaurant Job Growth isOn a larger scale, the broadly defined to grow by 409,000 between 2012 and Projected to Outpace Laborrestaurant-and-foodservice industry is 2022 for an increase of nearly 15 percent. Force in Next 10 Yearsprojected to provide 12.9 million jobs in In addition, the restaurant industry is Projected growth in labor indicators for 20122012, which represents nearly 10 percent expected to create 245,000 additional to 2022 11%of the total U.S. workforce. Looking ahead, server positions over the next decade, a 10the Association expects the restaurant-and- percent increase over the current employ- 8%foodservice industry to employ 14.3 million ment level. 6%individuals by 2022, an increase of 1.4 Supervisory and management positionsmillion jobs over the 10-year period. also are expected to register gains over the On an occupational level, the strongest next 10 years. The number of foodservicegains in both the number of positions and managers is projected to increase 8 percent Total Restaurant- Total U.S. 16-to-24 Year-old and-Foodservice Labor Force Labor Forcepercent increase are projected to be in between 2012 and 2022, while the number Employmentpositions that combine food preparation of first-line supervisors/managers of Source: National Restaurant AssociationRestaurant Workforce Expected to Approach 14.3 Million by 2022Growth in restaurant-industry employment by occupation, 2012 to 2022 ––– Employment Change, 2012–2022 ––– 2012 2022 Jobs Total % Avg. Annual Employment Employment Added Change % Change TOTAL RESTAURANT INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT 12,916,000 14,279,000 1,363,000 10.6% 1.0% Foodservice Managers 343,000 371,000 28,000 8.2% 0.8% Food-Preparation-and-Serving-Related Occupations 11,783,000 13,106,000 1,323,000 11.2% 1.1% Supervisors, food-preparation and -serving workers 961,000 1,078,000 117,000 12.2% 1.2% Chefs and head cooks 111,000 123,000 12,000 10.8% 1.0% First-line supervisors/managers of food-preparation and -serving workers 850,000 955,000 105,000 12.4% 1.2% Cooks and food-preparation workers 3,014,000 3,300,000 286,000 9.5% 0.9% Cooks 2,102,000 2,305,000 203,000 9.7% 0.9% Cooks, fast food 577,000 639,000 62,000 10.7% 1.0% Cooks, institution and cafeteria 398,000 437,000 39,000 9.8% 0.9% Cooks, private household 5,000 5,000 0 0.0% 0.0% Cooks, restaurant 932,000 1,028,000 96,000 10.3% 1.0% Cooks, short order 172,000 176,000 4,000 2.3% 0.2% Cooks, all other 18,000 20,000 2,000 11.1% 1.1% Food-preparation workers 912,000 995,000 83,000 9.1% 0.9% Food-and-beverage-serving workers 6,445,000 7,243,000 798,000 12.4% 1.2% Bartenders 517,000 567,000 50,000 9.7% 0.9% Fast-food and counter workers 3,312,000 3,793,000 481,000 14.5% 1.4% Combined food-preparation and -serving workers, including fast food 2,776,000 3,185,000 409,000 14.7% 1.4% Counter attendants, cafeteria, food concession, and coffee shop 536,000 608,000 72,000 13.4% 1.3% Waiters and waitresses 2,425,000 2,670,000 245,000 10.1% 1.0% Food servers, nonrestaurant 191,000 213,000 22,000 11.5% 1.1% Other food-preparation and -serving-related workers 1,363,000 1,485,000 122,000 9.0% 0.9% Dining room and cafeteria attendants and bartender helpers 426,000 458,000 32,000 7.5% 0.7% Dishwashers 532,000 592,000 60,000 11.3% 1.1% Hosts and hostesses, restaurant, lounge, and coffee shop 354,000 380,000 26,000 7.3% 0.7% All other food-preparation and -serving-related workers 51,000 55,000 4,000 7.8% 0.8% Other Eating-and-Drinking Place Occupations* 790,000 802,000 12,000 1.5% 0.2% *Includes operational, business, financial, entertainment, sales, administrative and transportation occupations Source: National Restaurant Association projections, based on historical data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 43
  • 46. Workplace Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecastfood-preparation and -serving workers is Restaurants Offer Ladderexpected to grow by 12 percent. to SuccessSouthern and WesternStates to Set the PaceStates in the southern and western regions I n addition to providing nearly 13 million job opportunities from entry-level to management positions, the restaurant industry also givesof the United States are expected to drivemuch of the industry’s job growth in the individuals of all backgrounds the chance to become business owners. In fact, 80 percent of 80% Increase in Hispanic-coming years. Texas is projected to set the restaurant owners said they started out as owned restaurantpace with total restaurant-and-foodservice hourly employees in the restaurant industry, businessesjob growth of 17.1 percent between 2012 1997-2007 according to the Association’s 2009 “Who Isand 2022, followed by Arizona (16.4 the American Restaurateur?” Survey.percent), Florida (15.8 percent) and North U.S. Census Bureau data shows thatDakota (15.6 percent). growth in restaurant ownership among In terms of total jobs added, Texas once minorities and women outpaced growthagain tops the list with a projected 174,500 in the overall restaurant industry duringindustry jobs added between 2012 and the last 10 years.2022. California’s restaurant industry is Between 1997 and 2007 (the most 50%projected to add 145,900 jobs during the recent year available), the number ofnext 10 years, while restaurants in Florida black- or African-American-ownedare expected to add 132,900 jobs. restaurant businesses soared 188 Increase in women percent, more than five times the rate restaurant owners 1997-2007Labor Challenges Poised of growth in the overall number ofto Heat Up restaurant businesses (36 percent).In the business environment of the last few The number of Hispanic-ownedyears, labor shortage wasn’t top of mind for restaurant businesses jumped 80most restaurant operators. Amid elevated percent during the same 10-yearfood and energy costs and a persistently period, while Asian-owned 80%high unemployment rate, recruiting and restaurants increased 60 percent.retaining employees typically wasn’t the The number of womenmost-pressing issue for operators. restaurant owners also grew Indeed, only 6 percent of respondents sharply — increasing 50 Restaurant ownersto the National Restaurant Association’s percent between 1997 and who said they startedDecember 2011 Restaurant Industry 2007, well above the 36 out as hourly employeesTracking Survey said recruiting and percent increase in theretaining employees is the top challenge number of overall restau-currently facing their business, well below rant businesses.those who cited the economy (30 percent),food costs (17 percent), building andmaintaining sales volume (14 percent) or Opportunities for Ownership Aboundgovernment (8 percent). Flash back five Growth in the number of restaurant businesses from 1997 to 2007years and the story was quite different — 188%31 percent of restaurant operators said 175%recruiting and retaining employees wastheir top operational challenge. In the Association’s 2011 RestaurantTrends Survey, restaurant operators were 80%asked if recruiting and retaining employ- 60% 50%ees posed a greater difficulty for them in 36%2011 than it did in 2010. Fullserviceoperators were more likely to say it wasless of a challenge for them in 2011, while All Restaurant Black or African- American Indian/ Asian Owned Hispanic Owned Women Owned Businesses American Owned Alaskan Nativequickservice and fast-casual operators were Owned Continued on page 46 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Economic Census — 1997 and 200744 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 47. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Workforce OutlookState Restaurant-Industry Employment GrowthProjected growth in restaurant-industry employment* from 2012 to 2022 ––– Employment Change, 2012-2022 ––– 2012 2022 Jobs Total % Avg. Annual Employment Employment Added Change % Change Alabama 164,000 189,300 25,300 15.4% 1.4% Alaska 29,500 34,000 4,500 15.3% 1.4% Arizona 260,200 303,000 42,800 16.4% 1.5% Arkansas 115,100 132,500 17,400 15.1% 1.4% California 1,445,000 1,590,900 145,900 10.1% 1.0% Colorado 237,100 271,200 34,100 14.4% 1.4% Connecticut 142,300 149,900 7,600 5.3% 0.5% Delaware 41,100 47,000 5,900 14.4% 1.4% District of Columbia 49,200 52,500 3,300 6.7% 0.7% Florida 841,900 974,800 132,900 15.8% 1.5% Georgia 374,000 431,700 57,700 15.4% 1.4% Hawaii 79,400 83,500 4,100 5.2% 0.5% Idaho 58,600 65,000 6,400 10.9% 1.0% Illinois 516,400 554,500 38,100 7.4% 0.7% Indiana 287,400 311,700 24,300 8.5% 0.8% Iowa 146,700 158,900 12,200 8.3% 0.8% Texas and Arizona are Kansas 126,300 138,100 11,800 9.3% 0.9% predicted to experience Kentucky 191,000 207,000 16,000 8.4% 0.8% the biggest leap in job Louisiana 189,500 206,900 17,400 9.2% 0.9% Maine 62,700 68,200 5,500 8.8% 0.8% growth Maryland 222,700 239,300 16,600 7.5% 0.7% Massachusetts 309,300 329,800 20,500 6.6% 0.6% Michigan 374,800 400,700 25,900 6.9% 0.7% Minnesota 250,700 269,400 18,700 7.5% 0.7% Fastest Restaurant Mississippi 110,200 123,000 12,800 11.6% 1.1% Top-10 states Job Growth Missouri 281,900 303,800 21,900 7.8% 0.8%Expected growth in restaurant-and- Montana 51,700 55,000 3,300 6.4% 0.6%foodservice jobs, 2012 to 2022 Nebraska 87,300 93,900 6,600 7.6% 0.7% Nevada 187,800 216,700 28,900 15.4% 1.4% 1 Texas 17.1% New Hampshire 63,800 69,200 5,400 8.5% 0.8% 2 Arizona 16.4% New Jersey 309,200 330,300 21,100 6.8% 0.7% 3 Florida 15.8% New Mexico 82,400 93,600 11,200 13.6% 1.3% 4 North Dakota 15.6% New York 718,600 775,500 56,900 7.9% 0.8% 5 Georgia 15.4% North Carolina 401,700 458,300 56,600 14.1% 1.3% 6 Alabama 15.4% North Dakota 39,200 45,300 6,100 15.6% 1.5% 7 Nevada 15.4% Ohio 530,500 565,400 34,900 6.6% 0.6% 8 Alaska 15.3% Oklahoma 153,700 169,400 15,700 10.2% 1.0% 9 Arkansas 15.1% Oregon 170,900 192,500 21,600 12.6% 1.2% 10 Utah 14.7% Pennsylvania 537,900 565,900 28,000 5.2% 0.5% Rhode Island 52,800 56,600 3,800 7.2% 0.7% Top Restaurant South Carolina 192,700 215,700 23,000 11.9% 1.1% Top-10 states Workforces South Dakota 44,800 49,500 4,700 10.5% 1.0% Tennessee 263,400 287,400 24,000 9.1% 0.9%Number of restaurant-and-foodservice Texas 1,017,500 1,192,000 174,500 17.1% 1.6%jobs in 2012 Utah 103,400 118,600 15,200 14.7% 1.4% 1 California 1,445,000 Vermont 29,500 31,600 2,100 7.1% 0.7% 2 Texas 1,017,500 Virginia 334,500 369,500 35,000 10.5% 1.0% 3 Florida 841,900 Washington 275,100 305,600 30,500 11.1% 1.1% 4 New York 718,600 West Virginia 72,900 77,400 4,500 6.2% 0.6% 5 Pennsylvania 537,900 Wisconsin 261,400 279,300 17,900 6.8% 0.7% 6 Ohio 530,500 Wyoming 26,300 28,200 1,900 7.2% 0.7% 7 Illinois 516,400 *Includes employment in all eating-and-drinking-place occupations, plus employment in foodservice positions that are 8 North Carolina 401,700 not located at eating-and-drinking places 9 Michigan 374,800 Source: National Restaurant Association projections, based on historical data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics 10 Georgia 374,000 www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 45
  • 48. Workforce Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry ForecastContinued from page 44more likely to report it as a greater adults aged 55 and older rose from 8 force is only expected to grow 6 percent.challenge. percent to nearly 10 percent. As a result, now is a good time for Looking forward to 2012, many Looking forward, the Association restaurant operators to focus on expand-restaurant operators across the major projects total restaurant-and-foodservice ing their labor pool, so they will be aheadsegments expect recruiting and retaining employment to grow 11 percent in the of the curve when the economy recoversemployees to become a somewhat bigger next 10 years; the 16-to-24-year-old labor and the pool becomes shallower.obstacle. Thirty-two percent of bothfine-dining and quickservice operatorsexpect recruiting and retaining employeesto be more challenging in 2012 than it wasin 2011, while 27 percent of family-dining,casual-dining and fast-casual operatorsreported similarly. A smaller proportion ineach of the five segments expects labor tobe less of a challenge for them in 2012. Finding employees isn’t a widespreadproblem today, but it will likely growincreasingly difficult as the economycontinues to improve and the labor markettightens. The question for business ownersthen will again become where to findemployees, particularly if the recent trends Labor Challenges Expected to Ramp Up in 2012in labor-force participation don’t turn Restaurant operators’ outlook for recruiting and retaining employees in 2012around. 32% 32% Between 2000 and 2011, the labor-force 27% 27% 27%participation rate among 16 to 19 year olds 20%plunged from 52 percent to 34 percent 18% 16%— the lowest level since recordkeeping 14% 12%began in 1948. Although the drop was notas precipitous among 20 to 24 year olds,their labor-force participation rate alsodeclined over the last 11 years, from 78 Family Dining Casual Dining Fine Dining Quickservice Fast Casualpercent in 2000 to 71 percent in 2011. As a More Challenging in 2012 Less Challenging in 2012result, there were more than 1.5 millionfewer 16 to 24 year olds in the labor force Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends Survey, 2011in 2011 than there were 11 years earlier, adevelopment that cut into the restaurantindustry’s prime labor pool. Labor-Force Participation Rate Among 16 to 24 Labor-force participation among 16 to24 year olds is expected to improve Year Olds Fell to a Record Low Labor force participation rate among 16 to 24 year oldssomewhat as more jobs become available, 65.8%but it will likely not get back to 2000 levels 64.5% 63.3% 61.6% 61.1% 60.8% 60.6% 59.4% 58.8%any time soon. In contrast, the labor-force 56.9% 55.2% 55.0%participation rate among adults aged 55and older rose from 32 percent in 2000 to40 percent in 2011, an upward trend that isexpected to continue well into the future. These labor-force trends are alreadyimpacting the distribution of the restau-rant industry’s workforce. In 2010, 16 to 24year olds worked in 38 percent of foodser-vice jobs, down from 42 percent in 2000.During the same 10-year period, the 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011proportion of foodservice jobs held by Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics46 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 49. SECTION 72012Supply-ChainOutlookDuring the last four years, capital spending activity remained below thepre-recession average, which suggests that pent-up demand for capitalexpenditures is being accumulated by restaurant operators.
  • 50. Supply-Chain Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Restaurant Trends Survey described the current state of the economy as “fair” (67 percent) or “poor” (27 percent), their outlook for 2012 is generally positive. Forty-one percent of supply-chain profes- sionals think the economy will get better2012 Supply-Chain in 2012, while just 10 percent think it will get worse. The supply-chain segment also isOutlook comparatively optimistic about overall business conditions in the U.S. restaurant industry. One out of four supply-chain professionals assessed overall business2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast conditions in the restaurant industry as either “excellent” (1 percent) or “good” (23 percent), while only about one out of 10 restaurant operators reported similarly.Food Purchases and is expected to come from the limited- service eating-place segment. In terms of their own business condi- tions, the supply chain is quite upbeat.Capital Spending In addition, roughly half of restaurant operators plan to make a capital expendi- Nearly two-thirds of supply-chain profes- sionals described their own businessExpected to Rise ture for equipment, expansion or conditions as either “excellent” (5 percent)in 2012 remodeling during the first half of 2012, according to the Association’s monthly or “good” (59 percent), while only 2 percent said their business conditions are Restaurant Industry Tracking Survey. poor. During the last four years, capital spend- Overall, the supply chain reportedT he outlook for 2012 is positive for ing activity remained below the pre-reces- positive sales results in 2011. Fifty-two companies that are in the business sion average, which suggests that pent-up percent of supply-chain professionals said of manufacturing, selling and demand for capital expenditures is being their business in 2011 was better than itdistributing food, beverages, equipment accumulated by restaurant operators. was in 2010, while just 10 percent saidand supplies to the $632 billion restaurant Overall, the uptick in operators’ capital their business was down from 2010.industry. Restaurateurs and other foodser- spending plans bodes well for the supply The outlook is even more optimistic forvice operators are projected to buy a chain in 2012. 2012, with 63 percent of supply-chainrecord $225.4 billion in food and bever- Although more than nine out of 10 professionals expecting business in 2012ages from industry suppliers in 2012. More supply-chain professionals (manufacturers, will be better than it was in 2011. Only 2than $63 billion is projected to come from suppliers, distributors and brokers) percent of supply-chain professionals thinkthe fullservice segment, while $64.5 billion responding to the Association’s 2011 their business will be down in 2012.Restaurant Capital Spending RemainsBelow Pre-Recession AverageProportion of restaurant operators making a capital expenditure in the previous three months November 2011: 46%6050 2004–2007 Average4030200 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Nov 11Source: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Industry Tracking Survey48 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 51. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Supply-Chain Outlook Purchasing: 2012 Projections Restaurant-industry food-and-drink purchases: 2012* Projected Food-and-Drink Purchases ($000) GROUP I — COMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES** EATING PLACES Fullservice restaurants $63,034,066 Limited-service (quickservice) restaurants 53,148,173 Cafeterias, grill-buffets and buffets 3,031,156 Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars 8,328,659 Social caterers 2,098,120 Two-thirds of supply- TOTAL EATING PLACES $129,640,174 Bars and taverns*** 6,397,718 chain professionals TOTAL EATING-AND-DRINKING PLACES $136,037,892 describe their business MANAGED SERVICES conditions as either Manufacturing and industrial plants $2,958,184 “excellent” or “good” Commercial and office buildings 1,124,671 Hospitals and nursing homes 1,987,484 Colleges and universities 4,815,874 Primary and secondary schools 2,310,236 In-transit restaurant services (airlines)*** 1,060,471Supply-Chain Professionals’ Recreation and sports centers 1,660,944Assessment of Their Own TOTAL MANAGED SERVICES $15,917,864Business Conditions LODGING PLACES Poor Hotel restaurants $9,101,106 Excellent 2% Other accommodation restaurants 144,474 Fair 5% TOTAL LODGING PLACES $9,245,580 34% Good Retail-host restaurants 10,603,039 59% Recreation and sports 4,221,513 Mobile caterers 193,409 Vending and nonstore retailers 3,398,816 TOTAL — GROUP I $179,618,113 GROUP II — NONCOMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES Employee restaurant services $245,893Supply-Chain Professionals’ Public and parochial elementary, secondary schools 5,927,738Reporting of Their Business Colleges and universities 2,750,636in 2011 Transportation 1,216,661 Down From 2010 10% Hospitals 7,050,278 About the Better Than Same as 2010 Nursing homes, homes for the aged, blind, orphans, and the 2010 52% mentally and physically disabled 5,120,568 38% Clubs, sporting and recreational camps 3,257,557 Community centers 3,422,087 Penal institutions 4,111,837 Convents and seminaries 61,952 TOTAL — GROUP II $33,165,207Supply-Chain Professionals’ TOTAL — GROUPS I AND II $212,783,320Outlook for Business in 2012 Food furnished to foodservice employees (FSE) in Groups I and II 8,978,476 TOTAL — GROUPS I, II AND FSE $221,761,796 Down From 2011 2% About the GROUP III — MILITARY RESTAURANT SERVICES Same as Better Than 2011 2011 Defense personnel $2,768,073 35% 63% Officers’ and NCO clubs (open mess) 602,752 Military exchanges 271,427 TOTAL — GROUP III $3,642,252 GRAND TOTAL $225,404,048 *Purchases refers to expenditures by foodservice establishments for their food-and-drink suppliesSource: National Restaurant Association, Restaurant Trends **Data are given only for establishments with payroll ***Food purchases onlySurvey, 2011 Source: National Restaurant Association www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 49
  • 52. Appendix 2012 Restaurant Industry ForecastState Economic Data and Outlook for Restaurant Sales and JobsHere’s where key economic indicators are headed in each state in 2012, as well as the National Restaurant Association’s projections forrestaurant sales in 2012 and foodservice employment over the next decade. State Economic Indicators1 Growth in Restaurant Sales2 Foodservice Employment3 % change, 2011–2012 2011–2012 ($000) 2012–2022 ‘11–’12 ‘12–’22 Average Total Real Total 2011 2012 Percent 2012 2022 ‘12–’22 Percent Annual % Employment DPI Population 4 Sales Sales Change Employment Employment Jobs Added Change Change Alabama 1.3% 2.0% 0.8% $5,909,128 $6,098,220 3.2% 164,000 189,300 25,300 15.4% 1.4% Alaska 1.5% 3.1% 1.2% $1,206,311 $1,248,532 3.5% 29,500 34,000 4,500 15.3% 1.4% Arizona 1.6% 2.3% 2.9% $9,674,544 $9,993,804 3.3% 260,200 303,000 42,800 16.4% 1.5% Arkansas 1.1% 1.6% 0.7% $3,233,576 $3,333,817 3.1% 115,100 132,500 17,400 15.1% 1.4% California 1.0% 1.6% 1.1% $61,999,060 $63,837,084 3.0% 1,445,000 1,590,900 145,900 10.1% 1.0% Colorado 1.6% 2.7% 1.5% $8,694,169 $8,998,465 3.5% 237,100 271,200 34,100 14.4% 1.4% Connecticut 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% $5,659,106 $5,823,220 2.9% 142,300 149,900 7,600 5.3% 0.5% Delaware 1.0% 2.1% 1.2% $1,512,394 $1,559,278 3.1% 41,100 47,000 5,900 14.4% 1.4% District of Columbia 0.0% 2.1% 0.5% $2,483,112 $2,565,055 3.3% 49,200 52,500 3,300 6.7% 0.7% Florida 1.9% 3.0% 1.7% $30,277,053 $31,463,913 3.9% 841,900 974,800 132,900 15.8% 1.5% Georgia 0.9% 1.5% 1.3% $14,759,494 $15,224,418 3.1% 374,000 431,700 57,700 15.4% 1.4% Hawaii 0.7% 1.9% 0.5% $3,446,428 $3,546,375 2.9% 79,400 83,500 4,100 5.2% 0.5% Idaho 1.2% 1.9% 1.5% $1,786,767 $1,843,944 3.2% 58,600 65,000 6,400 10.9% 1.0% Illinois 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% $20,036,466 $20,677,633 3.2% 516,400 554,500 38,100 7.4% 0.7% Indiana 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% $8,625,599 $8,849,865 2.6% 287,400 311,700 24,300 8.5% 0.8% Iowa 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% $3,258,560 $3,333,507 2.3% 146,700 158,900 12,200 8.3% 0.8% Kansas 1.3% 1.8% 0.8% $3,577,717 $3,674,316 2.7% 126,300 138,100 11,800 9.3% 0.9% Kentucky 1.8% 2.1% 0.9% $5,768,705 $5,959,073 3.3% 191,000 207,000 16,000 8.4% 0.8% Louisiana 2.0% 2.0% 0.3% $6,289,922 $6,497,489 3.3% 189,500 206,900 17,400 9.2% 0.9% Maine 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% $1,870,405 $1,920,906 2.7% 62,700 68,200 5,500 8.8% 0.8% Maryland 0.4% 1.4% 0.6% $9,458,322 $9,804,497 3.7% 222,700 239,300 16,600 7.5% 0.7% Massachusetts 1.0% 2.1% 0.1% $12,336,811 $12,632,894 2.4% 309,300 329,800 20,500 6.6% 0.6% Michigan 0.8% 1.0% 0.1% $12,224,741 $12,554,809 2.7% 374,800 400,700 25,900 6.9% 0.7% Minnesota 1.2% 3.1% 0.9% $7,654,536 $7,891,827 3.1% 250,700 269,400 18,700 7.5% 0.7% Mississippi 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% $3,190,982 $3,280,329 2.8% 110,200 123,000 12,800 11.6% 1.1% Missouri 0.5% 1.5% 0.6% $8,560,093 $8,774,096 2.5% 281,900 303,800 21,900 7.8% 0.8% Montana 1.1% 1.7% 1.2% $1,352,945 $1,396,239 3.2% 51,700 55,000 3,300 6.4% 0.6% Nebraska 1.3% 3.2% 0.6% $2,272,937 $2,341,126 3.0% 87,300 93,900 6,600 7.6% 0.7% Nevada 0.9% 2.4% 2.0% $5,309,566 $5,490,091 3.4% 187,800 216,700 28,900 15.4% 1.4% New Hampshire 1.5% 2.4% 0.8% $2,192,180 $2,251,369 2.7% 63,800 69,200 5,400 8.5% 0.8% New Jersey 0.8% 1.0% 0.4% $13,136,180 $13,567,704 3.3% 309,200 330,300 21,100 6.8% 0.7% New Mexico 1.8% 2.5% 1.0% $2,888,266 $2,983,579 3.3% 82,400 93,600 11,200 13.6% 1.3% New York 1.4% 2.4% 0.3% $30,877,316 $31,927,145 3.4% 718,600 775,500 56,900 7.9% 0.8% North Carolina 0.8% 2.3% 1.7% $14,216,729 $14,685,881 3.3% 401,700 458,300 56,600 14.1% 1.3% North Dakota 3.4% 5.2% 1.3% $769,187 $800,948 4.1% 39,200 45,300 6,100 15.6% 1.5% Ohio 0.9% 1.2% 0.2% $16,135,361 $16,619,422 3.0% 530,500 565,400 34,900 6.6% 0.6% Oklahoma 2.1% 3.7% 0.7% $4,724,532 $4,885,166 3.4% 153,700 169,400 15,700 10.2% 1.0% Oregon 1.3% 2.0% 1.6% $6,019,456 $6,206,059 3.1% 170,900 192,500 21,600 12.6% 1.2% Pennsylvania 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% $16,554,737 $17,084,489 3.2% 537,900 565,900 28,000 5.2% 0.5% Rhode Island 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% $1,831,370 $1,873,491 2.3% 52,800 56,600 3,800 7.2% 0.7% South Carolina 1.3% 1.8% 1.2% $6,912,442 $7,161,290 3.6% 192,700 215,700 23,000 11.9% 1.1% South Dakota 1.1% 1.9% 1.1% $989,728 $1,019,420 3.0% 44,800 49,500 4,700 10.5% 1.0% Tennessee 1.2% 1.5% 0.9% $9,168,182 $9,424,891 2.8% 263,400 287,400 24,000 9.1% 0.9% Texas 2.2% 2.4% 1.8% $36,908,621 $38,421,874 4.1% 1,017,500 1,192,000 174,500 17.1% 1.6% Utah 2.0% 2.6% 1.7% $3,213,310 $3,328,989 3.6% 103,400 118,600 15,200 14.7% 1.4% Vermont 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% $809,349 $827,154 2.2% 29,500 31,600 2,100 7.1% 0.7% Virginia 0.8% 2.0% 1.0% $12,840,111 $13,263,834 3.3% 334,500 369,500 35,000 10.5% 1.0% Washington 1.4% 1.9% 1.2% $10,066,790 $10,398,994 3.3% 275,100 305,600 30,500 11.1% 1.1% West Virginia 1.0% 2.1% 0.2% $2,034,149 $2,078,900 2.2% 72,900 77,400 4,500 6.2% 0.6% Wisconsin 0.7% 0.9% 0.4% $6,842,559 $7,034,150 2.8% 261,400 279,300 17,900 6.8% 0.7% Wyoming 2.0% 4.9% 1.0% $779,772 $808,725 3.7% 26,300 28,200 1,900 7.2% 0.7% 1 National growth rates for these indicators for 2012 are expected to be 1.3 percent for total employment, 2.0 percent for real disposable personal income and 1.0 percent for total population. 2 State restaurant-sales figures are in current dollars and are not adjusted for menu price inflation. Restaurant sales include sales at eating places and managed-restaurant-services providers (contract foodservice). Sales at hotel- and casino-owned restaurants are not included in this grouping. National sales for this grouping are projected to increase at a 3.2 percent rate in 2012. 3 Includes employment in all eating-and-drinking-place occupations, plus employment in foodservice positions that are not located at eating-and-drinking places. 4 Real disposable personal income. Source: Economic indicators and restaurant sales: National Restaurant Association; industry employment: National Restaurant Association projections, based on historical data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics50 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 53. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Appendix State Restaurant Associations The National Restaurant Association works closely with its state restaurant association partners. Alabama Restaurant Association Louisiana Restaurant Association Ohio Restaurant Association www.alabamarestaurants.com www.lra.org www.ohiorestaurant.org Alaska Cabaret, Hotel, Oklahoma Restaurant Maine Restaurant Association Restaurant & Retailers Association Association www.mainerestaurant.com www.alaskacharr.com www.okrestaurants.com Restaurant Association of Oregon Restaurant & Lodging Arizona Restaurant Association Maryland Association www.azrestaurant.org www.marylandrestaurants.com www.oregonrla.org Massachusetts Restaurant Pennsylvania Restaurant Arkansas Hospitality Association Association Association www.arhospitality.org www.massrestaurantassoc.org www.parestaurant.org Puerto Rico Restaurant California Restaurant Association Michigan Restaurant Association Association www.calrest.org www.michiganrestaurant.org www.asorepr.net Minnesota Restaurant Rhode Island Hospitality Colorado Restaurant Association Association Association www.coloradorestaurant.com www.hospitalitymn.com www.rihospitality.org Connecticut Restaurant Mississippi Hospitality & South Carolina Hospitality Association Restaurant Association Association www.ctrestaurant.org www.msra.org www.schospitality.org South Dakota Retailers Delaware Restaurant Association Missouri Restaurant Association Association, Restaurant Division www.delawarerestaurant.org www.morestaurants.org www.sdra.org Florida Restaurant & Lodging Tennessee Hospitality Montana Restaurant Association Association Association www.mtrestaurant.com www.frla.org www.tnhospitality.net Georgia Restaurant Association Nebraska Restaurant Association Texas Restaurant Association www.garestaurants.org www.nebraska-dining.org www.restaurantville.com Hawaii Restaurant Association Nevada Restaurant Association Utah Restaurant Association www.restauranthi.com www.nvrestaurants.com www.utahdineout.com Idaho Lodging & Restaurant New Hampshire Lodging & Vermont Chamber of Commerce Association Restaurant Association Hospitality Division www.idahohospitality.net www.nhlra.com www.vtchamber.com New Jersey Restaurant Virginia Hospitality & Travel Illinois Restaurant Association Association Association www.illinoisrestaurants.org www.njra.org www.vhta.org New Mexico Restaurant Washington Restaurant Indiana Restaurant Association Association Association www.indianarestaurants.org www.nmrestaurants.org www.wrahome.com New York State Restaurant West Virginia Hospitality & Iowa Restaurant Association Association Travel Association www.restaurantiowa.com www.nysra.org www.wvhta.com Kansas Restaurant & Hospitality North Carolina Restaurant & Wisconsin Restaurant Association Lodging Association Association www.krha.org www.ncrla.biz www.wirestaurant.org North Dakota Hospitality Wyoming Lodging & Restaurant Kentucky Restaurant Association Association Association www.kyra.org www.ndhospitality.com www.wlra.org www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 51
  • 54. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast ABOUT THE NATIONAL RESTAURANT ASSOCIATION ABOUT THE STATE AND REGIONAL FORECAST 2012 RESTAURANT INDUSTRY FORECAST State restaurant-sales data is arranged according to the nine U.S. Census Bureau The National Restaurant Association’s 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast regions. Included for each state are revised restaurant-sales data for 2011, projects nominal and real growth rates for all sectors of the restaurant industry. projected 2012 restaurant-sales figures and percent-change calculations for Real growth is calculated separately for each market segment. population, employment and disposable personal income. Much of the historical To calculate real sales growth at eating-and-drinking places, the projected economic data in this report are based on information obtained from such increase in menu prices (including projected price increases for alcoholic sources as the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is part of the U.S. Department beverages served) is subtracted from the percent increase in sales. of Commerce, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is part of the U.S. Department of Labor. For other industry sectors where food costs are the biggest determinant of expenses — such as colleges and universities — a modification of the Producer A few reminders Price Index (PPI) for food (which measures changes in wholesale food prices) is • Sales projections for 2012 are based on the best available data in mid- used to calculate the sector’s real growth. Modifications to the PPI for food are December 2011. If the outlook for general economic conditions or the food based on historical patterns for each industry sector. The food-cost component situation changes significantly in 2012, those projections will require constitutes the base percent increase, which is adjusted to reflect population adjustments. changes and other pertinent factors, such as labor and overhead costs. • Adjustments were made to arrive at a predetermined U.S. total. To arrive at 2012 real sales figures for the total restaurant industry, as well as for • Sales figures for each state are subject to a larger margin of error than the the Commercial and Noncommercial Restaurant Services groups, revised 2011 sales national projections. were multiplied by the respective 2011 real growth factors. The real sales figures • Actual sales figures represent an overall allocation of total sales in the United for each of the industry sectors were added and compared with 2011 sales to States. Although percent changes are subject to more variation, they have obtain real growth for the industry overall and the industry’s two major segments. been shown here as a convenience to 2012 Forecast readers. Forecast updates • “Restaurant sales” includes sales in foodservice operations with payrolls that The National Restaurant Association’s projections for 2012 industry sales are fall under the North American Industry Classification System definition of based on the best data available in mid-December 2011. If the outlook for Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS Code 722). Sales totals also cover general conditions or the food situation changes significantly in 2012, those managed services (contract foodservice). projections will require adjustment. The latest developments are posted at www.restaurant.org/research. In addition, the performance of individual companies or sales in local market areas may differ substantially from the 2012 Restaurant Industry U.S. outlook. Pocket Factbook Sales data for previous years These wallet-sized fold-out cards filled Getting final estimates for restaurant-industry sales in previous years is an with vital restaurant facts and figures ongoing process. The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant TrendMapper are perfect for handing out to offers updated sales estimates as they become available. Subscribe at employees, potential investors, www.restaurant.org/trendmapper. lawmakers and others. Retail price: $19.95* The information in this report was prepared in consultation NRA member price: $9.95* with the research firm Malcolm M. Knapp Inc. * Packaged in quantities of 50 National Restaurant Association, 1200 17th St. NW, Washington DC 20036 www.restaurant.org/store (202) 331-5900 | www.restaurant.org Protecting Your Business and Customers The only full service safety partner with the industry insights and connections to create and deliver the best training and nationally accredited certification. For more information, contact your State Restaurant Association, distributor or the National Restaurant Association at 1-800-ServSafe (1-800-737-8723) ® 2012 National Restaurant Association Educational Foundation. All rights reserved. ServSafe and the ServSafe logo are registered trademarks of the National Restaurant Association Educational Foundation, and used under license by the National Restaurant Association Solutions, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of the National Restaurant Association. ServSafe Sixth Edition — Coming Spring 2012 | www.ServSafe.com52 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  • 55. 0nly Here. There’s only one event where you can get face time with suppliers that can impact your entire foodservice operation. Only one forum where you can check out award-winning advancements in food and beverage products, equipment and supplies, plus operator leadership. Only one place where you can learn how to boost your skills, upgrade equipment and build real consumer loyalty. Register today at www.restaurant.org/show. NRA SHOW 2012 INTERNATIONAL WINE, SPIRITS & BEER EVENT MAY 5-8 MAY 6-7 www.restaurant.org/show www.winespiritsbeer.org MCCORMICK PLACE • CHICAGO, ILLINOIS ©2012 National Restaurant Association Solutions, LLC. All rights reserved.
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