www.restaurant.org/forecast                                                    FEATURED 2012 CONSUMER RESEARCH SECTION    ...
Shared Vision of the National Restaurant Association,National Restaurant Association Educational Foundation and StateResta...
InsideThe National Restaurant Association ispleased to provide the 2012 RestaurantIndustry Forecast, our 43rd annual profi...
Sales Outlook                                                                                                             ...
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast                                                                                         ...
Sales Outlook                                                                                          2012 Restaurant Ind...
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast                                                                                         ...
Sales Outlook                                                                                                             ...
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast                                                                                         ...
Sales Outlook                                                                                                             ...
Hunkered-down       u s Optimistic	 utioCa	                          FEATURED 2012 CONSUMER RESEARCH SECTION        Decodi...
Decoding Consumers                                                                                                        ...
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast                                                                                        D...
Decoding Consumers                                                                                                        ...
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast                                                                                       De...
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast

5,150

Published on

2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast from the National Restaurant Association

Published in: Business
0 Comments
4 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
5,150
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
254
Comments
0
Likes
4
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Transcript of "2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast"

  1. 1. www.restaurant.org/forecast FEATURED 2012 CONSUMER RESEARCH SECTION Decoding Consumers in a Challenging ECONOMY n Hunkered-dow Op timistic Cautious Scan this QR code or visit www.restaurant.org/forecast to view the 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast video
  2. 2. Shared Vision of the National Restaurant Association,National Restaurant Association Educational Foundation and StateRestaurant Associations:We will lead America’s restaurant industry into a new era of prosperity,prominence and participation, enhancing the quality of life for allwe serve. FOLLOW www.twitter.com/ WeRRestaurantsMISSION MISSIONWe exist to help our members As the philanthropic foundation JOIN— the cornerstone of their of the National Restaurant www.facebook.com/communities — build customer Association, we exist to enhance NationalRestaurantAssociationloyalty, rewarding careers and the restaurant industry’s servicefinancial success. to the public through education, community engagement and the promotion of career opportunities. WATCH www.youtube.com/ restaurantdotorgWe create valuefor our members in five ways:• Advocacy and representation Building and sustaining positive public opinion and a favorable political environment. CONNECT www.linkedin.com/• Tools and solutions groups?gid=37937 Helping grow revenues, increase profitability and develop employees.• Education and networking Providing opportunities to connect and learn from each other.• Research and insights Anticipating and preparing for emerging trends that could impact VIEW restaurants. www.flickr.com/photos/• Responsible stewardship restaurantdotorg Providing thought leadership to inspire community involvement and impact. www.restaurant.org
  3. 3. InsideThe National Restaurant Association ispleased to provide the 2012 RestaurantIndustry Forecast, our 43rd annual profileof restaurant-industry opportunities andchallenges for the year ahead. Theresearch and insights are based onanalysis of the latest economic data, aswell as extensive surveys of restaurateursand consumers.The National Restaurant Association willclosely monitor incoming industry andeconomic data in the months ahead andprovide updates to this Forecast atwww.restaurant.org/research.The 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecastwas prepared by the National RestaurantAssociation Research and KnowledgeGroup:Hudson RiehleSenior Vice President, Researchand KnowledgeBruce GrindyChief EconomistTim SmithArt Director 2012 Sales Projections....................................................................................................2Annika StenssonPublic Relations Decoding Consumers in a Challenging Economy.........................................................9Jennifer BattyEditor Economic Outlook..........................................................................................................15 Fullservice Outlook.........................................................................................................21 Limited-Service Outlook................................................................................................27 Other Foodservice Segments.........................................................................................331200 17th St., NW, Washington, DC 20036(800) 424-5156 | www.restaurant.org Food and Menu Trends..................................................................................................35© 2012 National Restaurant Association Workforce Outlook........................................................................................................41ISBN 978-1-931400-74-9 Supply-Chain Outlook....................................................................................................47Thank you to our National Restaurant Appendix........................................................................................................................50Association 2012 Restaurant IndustryForecast sponsor: www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 1
  4. 4. Sales Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast2012:Achieving Growthin a Challenging Environment2012 Restaurant Industry ForecastD riven by the continued national choose one restaurant over another. To rants in the current environment. economic recovery and consumers’ help operators better attract and retain The second segment looks at frequent pent-up demand for the food, customers, the 2012 Forecast analyzes restaurant customers. These consumers areservice and social outlet that restaurants consumers by creating two segments. critical to the restaurant industry in goodprovide, the U.S. restaurant industry is One segment looks at consumers by economic times, and are even moreprojected to expand in 2012. According to their financial situation and spending important in the current environment. Thethe National Restaurant Association’s 2012 patterns. The result is the creation of three three categories analyzed are: FrequentRestaurant Industry Forecast, total distinct consumer categories: Optimistic Fullservice Customers, Frequent Quickser-restaurant-industry sales are projected to Consumers, Cautious Consumers and vice Customers and Frequent Off-Premisesreach a record high of $631.8 billion in Hunkered-Down Consumers. Each group Dinner Customers. Each frequent customer2012, a 3.5 percent increase over 2011 and has a different mindset about the econo- uses his or her respective segment morethe second consecutive year that industry my, and a different way of using restau- than once a week, on average.sales topped the $600 billion level. In inflation-adjusted terms, totalrestaurant sales are projected to grow 0.8percent in 2012, down slightly from a 1.3percent gain in 2011. Although both the Adding It All Up: $631.8 billionnominal and real growth rates will be Projected restaurant-industry sales in 2012somewhat below the 2011 gains, industrygrowth will remain in positive territory for Commercial Restaurant Services $575.1 billionthe third consecutive year. This follows theunprecedented two straight years of real Eating places*: $419.2 billionsales declines in 2008 and 2009. Bars and taverns: $18.9 billionAnticipating Consumers’ Managed services: $44.4 billionNeedsIn addition to revealing the Association’s Lodging places: $31.4 billionsales and economic projections on thenational and state levels, the 2012 Forecast Retail, vending, recreation, mobile: $61.2 billionalso takes a detailed look at the mindsetand spending patterns of consumers. Noncommercial Restaurant Services $54.2 billion To be successful in today’s challengingbusiness environment, restaurant opera- *Eating places include fullservice restaurants and limited-tors need to understand what makes service (quickservice) restaurants, cafeterias and buffets, Military Restaurant Services $2.5 billion social caterers, and snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars.customers tick and what motivates them to2 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  5. 5. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Sales Outlook Restaurant-Industry Restaurant-Industry Restaurant-Industry Share of the Food Dollar Sales Employment $ $ (Billions of Current Dollars) 14.3 million $631.8 12.9 million 11.4 million 25% 48% $379.0 $239.3 $119.6 $42.8 1955 Present 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012* 2002 2012* 2022* *Projected *Projected42 Years of Restaurant-Industry SalesThis chart shows sales growth for the restaurant industry since 1971, when the National Restaurant Association began issuing its annualforecast. The chart shows growth in the number of dollars spent each year in restaurants as well as real (inflation-adjusted) sales growth. 12.8% 12.4% 11.8% 12.3% 11.6% 11.5% 9.9% 10.8% 2012 Current dollar growth: 3.5% 9.2% 8.0% 7.9% 8.3% Real (inflation-adjusted) growth: 0.8% 8.4% 7.2%7.7% 6.6% 6.2% 6.9% 5.8% 6.1% 5.5% 5.8% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4% 4.2% 5.3% 4.2% 4.0% 3.8% 3.8% 4.0% 4.6% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 3.2% 4.2% 3.5%3.0% 3.0% 3.4% 2.9% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% 3.1% 3.5% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% –0.2% –0.1% –0.2% –0.9%–0.6% –2.8%1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 Current dollar growth Real (inflation-adjusted) growthGrowth rates are estimated for 2008 to 2010 and projected for 2011 and 2012. Providing final estimates for restaurant-industry sales from previous years is an ongoing process.The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant TrendMapper offers updated sales estimates as they become available.Visit www.restaurant.org/trendmapper to learn more.Source: National Restaurant Association www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 3
  6. 6. Sales Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry ForecastWhat’s in Store for Footnotes:Restaurant-Industry Sales 1 Data are given only for establishments with payroll. 2 Waiter/waitress service is provided,Restaurant-industry food-and-drink sales: Projections for 2012 and the order is taken while the patron is seated. Patrons pay ‘11–’12 % after they eat. 2011 Projected 2012 Projected ‘11–’12 % Real Growth 3 Patrons generally order at a cash F&D Sales ($000) F&D Sales ($000) Change Change register or select items from a food bar and pay before they eat. GROUP I — COMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES1 4 Formerly commercial EATING PLACES cafeterias. Fullservice restaurants2 $195,711,168 $201,386,792 2.9% 0.2% 5 Food-and-drink sales for non-payroll Limited-service (quickservice) restaurants3 168,527,095 173,751,435 3.1% 0.4% establishments are Cafeterias, grill-buffets and buffets4 8,249,697 8,472,439 2.7% 0.0% projected to total $12,615,226,000. Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars 26,580,519 27,670,321 4.1% 1.4% 6 Also referred to as Social caterers 7,513,666 7,934,432 5.6% 2.9% onsite food-service TOTAL EATING PLACES $406,582,145 $419,215,419 3.1% 0.4% and food contractors. Bars and taverns 18,359,387 18,910,169 3.0% 0.4% 7 Includes drug- and proprietary-store TOTAL EATING-AND-DRINKING PLACES $424,941,532 $438,125,588 5 3.1% 0.4% restaurants, general- merchandise-store MANAGED SERVICES6 restaurants, variety- Manufacturing and industrial plants $7,007,302 $7,340,408 4.8% 2.1% store restaurants, food-store Commercial and office buildings 2,611,070 2,684,180 2.8% 0.1% restaurants and Hospitals and nursing homes 5,170,569 5,460,121 5.6% 2.7% grocery-store restaurants Colleges and universities 13,889,332 14,418,786 3.8% 0.6% (including a portion Primary and secondary schools 6,041,190 6,294,920 4.2% 1.4% of delis and all salad bars), gasoline- In-transit restaurant services (airlines) 2,263,753 2,342,985 3.5% 0.8% service-station restaurants and Recreation and sports centers 5,611,996 5,875,760 4.7% 2.0% miscellaneous TOTAL MANAGED SERVICES $42,595,212 $44,417,160 4.3% 1.4% retailers. LODGING PLACES 8 Includes movies, bowling lanes, Hotel restaurants $29,602,800 $30,994,132 4.7% 2.0% recreation and sport Other accommodation restaurants 397,166 419,805 5.7% 3.0% centers. TOTAL LODGING PLACES $29,999,966 $31,413,937 4.7% 2.0% 9 Includes sales of hot food, sandwiches, Retail-host restaurants7 33,152,723 35,111,790 5.9% 3.2% pastries, coffee and other hot beverages. Recreation and sports8 12,922,544 13,496,710 4.4% 1.7% 10 Business, Mobile caterers 628,422 653,685 4.0% 1.3% educational, Vending and nonstore retailers9 11,537,834 11,883,970 3.0% 0.7% governmental or institutional TOTAL — GROUP I $555,778,233 $575,102,840 3.5% 0.8% organizations that operate their own restaurant services. GROUP II — NONCOMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES10 11 Includes industrial Employee restaurant services11 $424,157 $440,942 4.0% 0.9% and commercial organizations, Public and parochial elementary, secondary schools 6,617,656 6,844,963 3.4% 0.6% seagoing and inland- Colleges and universities 7,206,760 7,478,958 3.8% 0.6% waterway vessels. 12 Includes voluntary and Transportation 2,069,914 2,175,955 5.1% 2.3% proprietary hospitals; Hospitals12 15,755,054 16,375,645 3.9% 1.2% long-term general, TB, nervous and Nursing homes, homes for the aged, blind, orphans, mental hospitals; and and the mentally and physically disabled13 7,908,212 8,192,908 3.6% 0.8% sales or commercial equivalent to Clubs, sporting and recreational camps 9,404,611 9,711,534 3.3% 0.6% employees in state Community centers 2,901,663 3,006,123 3.6% 0.8% and local short-term hospitals and federal TOTAL — GROUP II $52,288,027 $54,227,028 3.7% 0.9% hospitals. TOTAL — GROUPS I AND II $608,066,260 $629,329,868 3.5% 0.8% 13 Sales (commercial equivalent) calculated for nursing homes GROUP III — MILITARY RESTAURANT SERVICES14 and homes for the aged only. All others Officers’ and NCO clubs (Open mess) $1,626,203 $1,722,149 5.9% 3.2% in this grouping make Military exchanges 719,946 764,583 6.2% 3.5% no charge for food served either in cash TOTAL — GROUP III $2,346,149 $2,486,732 6.0% 3.3% or in kind. 14 Continental United States only. GRAND TOTAL $610,412,409 $631,816,600 3.5% 0.8%4 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  7. 7. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Sales OutlookMajor Markets: Projected Sales, 2012The chart on pages 5–6 provides more detail on the National Restaurant Association’s projections for sales in markets outside the “eating-and-drinking places” category in 2012, including foodservice sales at schools, worksites, health-care facilities, lodging places and the military.Educational SalesWhat this category includes: Food-and-drink sales by foodservice companies that manage restaurant services in colleges, universities, primary and secondaryschools, as well as food-and-drink sales by schools that operate their own restaurant services. 2011 Projected 2012 Projected ‘11–’12 % ‘11–’12 % Real 2012 projected food-and-drink sales $35.0 billion F&D Sales ($000) F&D Sales ($000) Change Growth Change Colleges and universities Managed services $13,889,332 $14,418,786 3.8% 0.6% Noncommercial 7,206,760 7,478,958 3.8% 0.6% Subtotal 21,096,092 21,897,744 3.8% 0.6% Primary and secondary schools Managed services 6,041,190 6,294,920 4.2% 1.4% Noncommercial 6,617,656 6,844,963 3.4% 0.6% Subtotal 12,658,846 13,139,883 3.8% 1.0% TOTAL EDUCATIONAL $33,754,938 $35,037,627 3.8% 0.8%Employee SalesWhat this category includes: Food-and-drink sales by for-profit companies that manage restaurant services for employees at manufacturing and industrial plantsand in commercial office buildings, as well as food-and-drink sales by plants and companies that run their own noncommercial employee restaurant services. 2011 Projected 2012 Projected ‘11–’12 % ‘11–’12 % Real 2012 projected food-and-drink sales $10.5 billion F&D Sales ($000) F&D Sales ($000) Change Growth Change Managed services Manufacturing and industrial plants $7,007,302 $7,340,408 4.8% 2.1% Commercial and office buildings 2,611,070 2,684,180 2.8% 0.1% Noncommercial employee restaurant services* 424,157 440,942 4.0% 0.9% TOTAL EMPLOYEE $10,042,529 $10,465,530 4.2% 1.5% *Includes sales for industrial plants and office buildings, seagoing ships, and inland-waterway vesselsHealth-Care SalesWhat this category includes: Food-and-drink sales by foodservice companies that manage restaurant services in hospitals and nursing homes, as well asfood-and-drink sales by hospitals and nursing homes that operate their own restaurant services. 2011 Projected 2012 Projected ‘11–’12 % ‘11–’12 % Real 2012 projected food-and-drink sales $30.0 billion F&D Sales ($000) F&D Sales ($000) Change Growth Change Managed services in hospitals and nursing homes $5,170,569 $5,460,121 5.6% 2.7% Hospitals* 15,755,054 16,375,645 3.9% 1.2% Nursing homes** 7,908,212 8,192,908 3.6% 0.8% TOTAL HEALTH CARE $28,833,835 $30,028,674 4.1% 1.4% *Includes voluntary and proprietary hospitals; long-term general, TB, mental hospitals; and sales or commercial equivalent to employees in state and local short-term hospitals and federal hospitals. **Includes homes for the aged, blind, orphans, mentally and physically disabled; sales (commercial equivalent) calculated for nursing homes and homes for the aged only. All others in this group make no charge — either in cash or in kind for food served.Lodging-Place SalesWhat this category includes: Food-and-drink sales at hotel restaurants and other accommodation restaurants. 2011 Projected 2012 Projected ‘11–’12 % ‘11–’12 % Real 2012 projected food-and-drink sales $31.4 billion F&D Sales ($000) F&D Sales ($000) Change Growth Change Hotel restaurants $29,602,800 $30,994,132 4.7% 2.0% Other accommodation restaurants 397,166 419,805 5.7% 3.0% TOTAL LODGING PLACES $29,999,966 $31,413,937 4.7% 2.0% www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 5
  8. 8. Sales Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry ForecastMajor Markets ContinuedMilitary SalesWhat this category includes: Food-and-drink sales at military clubs and exchanges. 2011 Projected 2012 Projected ‘11–’12 % ‘11–’12 % Real 2012 projected food-and-drink sales $2.5 billion F&D Sales ($000) F&D Sales ($000) Change Growth Change Officers’ and NCO clubs (Open mess) $1,626,203 $1,722,149 5.9% 3.2% Military exchanges 719,946 764,583 6.2% 3.5% TOTAL MILITARY* $2,346,149 $2,486,732 6.0% 3.3% *Continental United States only.Recreational SalesWhat this category includes: Food-and-drink sales at recreation and sports centers, such as movie theaters, sports arenas and bowling lanes. 2011 Projected 2012 Projected ‘11–’12 % ‘11–’12 % Real 2012 projected food-and-drink sales $29.1 billion F&D Sales ($000) F&D Sales ($000) Change Growth Change Recreation and sports centers Managed services $5,611,996 $5,875,760 4.7% 2.0% Noncontractors* 12,922,544 13,496,710 4.4% 1.7% Subtotal 18,534,540 19,372,470 4.5% 1.8% Clubs, sporting and recreational camps** 9,404,611 9,711,534 3.3% 0.6% TOTAL RECREATIONAL $27,939,151 $29,084,004 4.1% 1.4% *Includes sales at movies, bowling lanes, and recreation and sports centers. **A portion of food-and-beverage sales in clubs is business-related.Transportation SalesWhat this category includes: Food-and-drink sales on airlines, passenger/cargo liners and railroads. 2011 Projected 2012 Projected ‘11–’12 % ‘11–’12 % Real 2012 projected food-and-drink sales $4.5 billion F&D Sales ($000) F&D Sales ($000) Change Growth Change Managed services, in-transit commercial airlines $2,263,753 $2,342,985 3.5% 0.8% Noncommercial transportation 2,069,914 2,175,955 5.1% 2.3% TOTAL TRANSPORTATION $4,333,667 $4,518,940 4.3% 1.5%Other Sales 2011 Projected 2012 Projected ‘11–’12 % ‘11–’12 % Real 2012 projected food-and-drink sales $50.7 billion F&D Sales ($000) F&D Sales ($000) Change Growth Change Retail hosts* $33,152,723 $35,111,790 5.9% 3.2% Mobile caterers 628,422 653,685 4.0% 1.3% Vending and non-store retailers** 11,537,834 11,883,970 3.0% 0.7% Community centers 2,901,663 3,006,123 3.6% 0.8% *Includes drug- and proprietary-store, general-merchandise store, variety-store, food-store and grocery-store restaurants (including a portion of delis and all salad bars); gasoline/service-station restaurants; and miscellaneous retailers. **Includes sales of hot food, sandwiches, pastries, coffee and other hot beverages.6 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  9. 9. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Sales OutlookRestaurant-Industry Sales Over Five Years: 2008-2012 2008 2009 ‘08–’09 2010 ‘09–’10 2011 ‘10–’11 2012 ‘11–’12 Sales Sales Change Sales Change Sales Change Sales ChangeCOMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES $523,459,092 $519,554,791 –0.7% $535,106,004 3.0% $555,778,233 3.9% $575,102,840 3.5% Eating Places 388,478,808 384,111,349 –1.1% 393,028,164 2.3% 406,582,145 3.4% 419,215,419 3.1% Fullservice restaurants 191,470,223 186,109,057 –2.8% 189,459,020 1.8% 195,711,168 3.3% 201,386,792 2.9% Limited-service restaurants 157,591,999 159,010,327 0.9% 162,985,585 2.5% 168,527,095 3.4% 173,751,435 3.1% Cafeterias, grill-buffets and buffets 7,691,686 7,768,603 1.0% 8,017,198 3.2% 8,249,697 2.9% 8,472,439 2.7% Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars 24,652,412 24,504,498 –0.6% 25,484,678 4.0% 26,580,519 4.3% 27,670,321 4.1% Social caterers 7,072,488 6,718,864 –5.0% 7,081,683 5.4% 7,513,666 6.1% 7,934,432 5.6% Bars and taverns 17,117,259 17,305,549 1.1% 17,790,104 2.8% 18,359,387 3.2% 18,910,169 3.0% TOTAL EATING-AND-DRINKING PLACES $405,596,067 $401,416,898 –1.0% $410,818,268 2.3% $424,941,532 3.4% $438,125,588 3.1%NONCOMMERCIAL RESTAURANT SERVICES $47,509,488 $47,881,491 0.8% $49,823,416 4.1% $52,288,027 4.9% $54,227,028 3.7%MILITARY RESTAURANT SERVICES $2,046,800 $2,149,353 5.0% $2,235,735 4.0% $2,346,149 4.9% $2,486,732 6.0%TOTAL INDUSTRY SALES $573,015,380 $569,585,635 –0.6% $587,165,155 3.1% $610,412,409 4.0% $631,816,600 3.5%Source: National Restaurant AssociationRestaurant Sales by U.S. Census RegionGrowth in the restaurant industry typically varies significantly by region of the country, and is most heavily influenced by gains in employment,disposable income and population. (Note: The appendix on page 50 offers details on restaurant-sales growth in each state.) Regional Snapshots East North Central East South Central Middle Atlantic Mountain Restaurant sales1 2012 projected growth: 2012 projected growth: 2012 projected growth: 2012 projected growth: and economic2 Regional National Regional National Regional National Regional National growth projected • Jobs 0.6% 1.3% • Jobs 1.3% 1.3% • Jobs 1.0% 1.3% • Jobs 1.5% 1.3% for 2012 in the • Income 0.9% 2.0% • Income 1.7% 2.0% • Income 1.6% 2.0% • Income 2.5% 2.0% nine U.S. Census • Population 0.3% 1.0% • Population 0.8% 1.0% • Population 0.3% 1.0% • Population 1.9% 1.0% regions Restaurant Restaurant Restaurant Restaurant Sales 2.9% 3.2% Sales 3.0% 3.2% Sales 3.3% 3.2% Sales 3.4% 3.2%New England Pacific South Atlantic West North Central West South Central2012 projected growth: 2012 projected growth: 2012 projected growth: 2012 projected growth: 2012 projected growth: Regional National Regional National Regional National Regional National Regional National• Jobs 0.7% 1.3% • Jobs 1.1% 1.3% • Jobs 1.1% 1.3% • Jobs 1.1% 1.3% • Jobs 2.1% 1.3%• Income 1.4% 2.0% • Income 1.7% 2.0% • Income 2.2% 2.0% • Income 2.2% 2.0% • Income 2.4% 2.0%• Population 0.2% 1.0% • Population 1.2% 1.0% • Population 1.3% 1.0% • Population 0.7% 1.0% • Population 1.4% 1.0% Restaurant Restaurant Restaurant Restaurant Restaurant Sales 2.5% 3.2% Sales 3.0% 3.2% Sales 3.5% 3.2% Sales 2.8% 3.2% Sales 3.9% 3.2%1 Regional restaurant-sales-growth figures are based on current dollars and not adjusted for menu price inflation. For definition of restaurant sales included in this grouping see page 50 footnote.2 Economic indicators show growth in region’s total employment, real disposable personal income and total population. www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 7
  10. 10. Sales Outlook 2012 Restaurant Industry ForecastRestaurant Sales Growth in 2012 (projected) See state information appendix on page 50 for full sales projections for all states. WA 3.3% NH 2.7% ME VT MT ND 2.2% 2.7% 3.2% 4.1% OR 3.1% MA ID 2.4% MN WI NY 3.2% SD 3.1% 2.8% 3.4% RI WY 3.0% MI 2.3% 3.7% 2.7% CT NV IA PA 2.9% 3.4% NE 2.3% 3.2% 3.0% OH NJ UT IL IN DE 3.3% 3.0% 3.1% CA 3.6% CO 3.2% 2.6% WV 3.0% 3.5% KS 2.2% VA MD 2.7% MO KY 3.3% 3.7% 2.5% 3.3% DC NC 3.3% TN 3.3% AZ OK NM 2.8% 3.3% 3.4% AR SC 3.3% 3.1% 3.6% MS 2.8% AL GA 3.2% 3.1% TX 4.1% LA 3.3% AK 3.5% FL 3.9% 3.5% or higher 3.2% to 3.4% HI 2.9% 2.8% to 3.1% 2.7% or less*State restaurant-sales figures are in current dollars and not adjusted for menu price inflation. For definition of restaurant sales included in this grouping see page 50 footnote.National sales for this group are projected to increase at a 3.2 percent rate in 2012.Source: National Restaurant Association 2012 Restaurant 2012 Restaurant Top 12 States Top 12 States Sales Growth Sales VolumeProjected increase in restaurant sales Projected restaurant sales volumein 2012 in 2012 ($000)North Dakota 4.1% 1 California $63,837,084Texas 4.1% 2 Texas $38,421,874Florida 3.9% 3 New York $31,927,145Wyoming 3.7% 4 Florida $31,463,913Maryland 3.7% 5 Illinois $20,677,633South Carolina 3.6% 6 Pennsylvania $17,084,489Utah 3.6% 7 Ohio $16,619,422Alaska 3.5% 8 Georgia $15,224,418Colorado 3.5% 9 North Carolina $14,685,881New York 3.4% 10 New Jersey $13,567,704Oklahoma 3.4% 11 Virginia $13,263,834Nevada 3.4% 12 Massachusetts $12,632,8948 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  11. 11. Hunkered-down u s Optimistic utioCa FEATURED 2012 CONSUMER RESEARCH SECTION Decoding Consumers in a Challenging Economy W ith the official end of the Great Recession now more than two years in the past, most households expected things would be getting better. Sluggish job growth, persistent high unemployment, stagnant incomes and falling home prices were supposed to be in the rear view mirror by now. The good times should have returned, giving consumer sentiment a much-needed boost. Unfortunately, the reality is quite economy as either “fair” or “poor.” When different from those expectations, accord- asked the same question in December 2010, ing to new National Restaurant Association an identical 92 percent of adults gave the research. In fact, from the perspective of same assessment of the economy. many consumers, the economy didn’t It can even be argued that consumers’ improve at all in 2011. According to the view of the economy worsened over the Association’s National Household Survey last year, as 65 percent gave the economy a fielded in December 2011, 92 percent of “poor” rating in December 2011, an adults described the current state of the increase from 58 percent just a year ago. Continued … www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 9
  12. 12. Decoding Consumers 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Although the general assessment of Consumers Still Not Confident in the Economythe national economy remains negative, Consumers’ assessment of the economy, December 2011 versus December 2010consumers are somewhat more positive December 2011about their personal financial situation. 65% 27% 7% 1%Forty-three percent of adults describedtheir personal finances as “excellent” December 2010 58% 34% 8%(10 percent) or “good” (33 percent),while 56 percent gave a rating of “fair”(38 percent) or “poor” (18 percent). Consumers More Optimistic About Their This is generally on par with consumers’ Own Piggy Bankssentiment a year ago, when four out of 10 Consumers’ assessment of their personal finances, December 2011 versus December 2010assessed their personal financial situationas “excellent” or “good,” and six out of 10 December 2011 18% 38% 33% 10%said it was “fair” or “poor.” December 2010Outlook Remains Mixed 18% 41% 34% 7%Consumers’ assessment of current Poor Fair Good Excellenteconomic conditions is generally bleak, Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2010 and 2011but their outlook for the year ahead 56%remains mixed. In fact, when comparedto December 2010, consumers are actually Same Old, Same Oldsomewhat less optimistic about an Outlook for 2011 Outlook for 2012improving economic environment in the (in December 2010) (in December 2011)year ahead. Stay About Stay About Don’t Know Percent of adults the Same Get Better Three out of 10 adults (30 percent) said the Same 2% Get Better who described their 54% 29% 44% personal financesthey think the nation’s economy will get 30% as “fair” or “good”better in 2012, while a solid majorityexpect conditions to worsen (24 percent)or stay the same (44 percent). This outlookis similar to the view consumers held a yearago, when 29 percent thought economic Get Worse 17% Get Worse 24%conditions would improve in 2011 and Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2010 and 201117 percent thought the economy wouldget worse. On an individual level, consumers Glass Half Full or Half Empty?are somewhat more bullish about the Consumers’ outlook for their household financial situation in 2012, by age groupprospects for their personal finances in the 70% 58% 57% 61%year ahead. Thirty-three percent of adults 48% 49% 53%expect their household financial situation 33% 34% 34%to be better in 2012 than it was in 2011. 25% 13% 13% 16% 9% 11%Meanwhile, just 9 percent said they think 2% 8%their financial situation will get worse in All Adults 18 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or Older2012. Younger adults are much more optimis- Better Than 2011 About the Same as 2011 Worse Than 2011tic about their personal economics in 2012. Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2011Forty-eight percent of adults between theages of 18 and 34 said their householdfinancial situation will improve in 2012; Loss of Trust credit downgrade to Congress’s inability to2 percent expect it to worsen. In contrast, Contributing to the general malaise in the reach a compromise on legislation, manyonly 13 percent of adults age 65 and country is the overall lack of confidence in consumers have lost trust in the pillars ofolder expect their household financial many of the entities and institutions that American society.situation to get better in 2012, while a are expected to be working toward Moreover, research shows that thehigher 16 percent predicted it will get improving the common good. From the situation is getting worse. In the Associa-worse. financial meltdown to the nation’s AAA tion’s 2010 and 2011 National Household10 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  13. 13. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Decoding ConsumersConfidence in Nation’s Pillars Still Challenged Consumers’ Level ofThe amount of confidence consumers have in the following institutions and entities Confidence in the Congress National Economy: 33% 36% 24% 3% December 2010 Federal Government Very Little None at All 24% 31% 32% 8% 15% A Great Deal 26% 5% National News Media Quite a Bit 25% 30% 31% 6% 6% 9% Financial Industry Some 20% 31% 37% 5% 4% 45% Large Corporations 20% 29% 36% 9% 5% December 2011 None at All Very Little Businesses in Community 18% 4% 10% 42% 27% 16% 33% A Great Deal 4% None at All Very Little Some Quite a Bit A Great Deal Quite a BitSource: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2011 8%69% Some 36% Percent of adults who said they had little or no confidence Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household in Congress, up from 60 percent in December 2010. Survey, 2010 and 2011Surveys, consumers were asked how much “very little” or “none at all.” In December most, while just 10 percent picked Congressconfidence they had in various American 2010, 14 percent of adults said they had “a as the biggest economic problem solver.institutions and entities. Without fail, their great deal” or “quite a bit” of confidence inresponses showed that confidence in most the national economy, while 41 percent said A Head’s Up on Consumerof the main institutions and entities is they had “very little” or “none at all.” Thinkingeroding across the board. Even during good economic times, one size In December 2011, 69 percent of adults does not fit all for consumers. Restaurantsaid they had little or no confidence in Local Business operators are well aware that they haveCongress, up from 60 percent in December Leading the Way to tailor their food, service and marketing2010. Similarly, 55 percent of adults said Consumers’ view of who is doing the most to to the kind of consumer they want tothey had little or no confidence in the help get the economy back on track reach. In today’s challenging economicfederal government or national news Don’t Know 13% Businesses environment, it is even more important formedia, up from less than half of adults in Congress in Their operators to know their customers and Community2010. Roughly one-half of adults said they 10% how to appeal to them. 63%had little or no confidence in large corpora- Large The Association’s 2012 Forecast takes ations or the financial industry, which also Corporations detailed look at the mindset, motivationsrepresented an increase from a year ago. 14% and spending patterns of today’s consumers There is one exception to consumers’ to help restaurant operators create a Source: National Restaurant Association, National Householddeclining confidence — they still have faith forward-thinking business plan that will Survey, 2011in their communities’ businesses. Forty- enable them to effectively compete forthree percent of adults said they have “a consumers’ limited dollars.great deal” or “quite a bit” of confidence in Searching for Problem Solvers Based on the Association’s 2011businesses in their community, matching the With all the challenges facing the country, National Household Survey, consumers areproportion that reported similarly in 2010. where are consumers looking for solutions? divided into the following three segments Taken as a whole, the result is a shortage They are turning to their local businesses. based on their financial situation, currentin confidence in the overall economy — a Nearly two-thirds of adults (63 percent) said spending behavior and economic outlook:trend that is worsening. Only 12 percent of they think businesses in their community • Optimistic Consumers: 21 percent ofadults said they had “a great deal” or are doing the most to get the economy adults said they are confident in their“quite a bit” of confidence in the national moving again. Fourteen percent said they financial situation and have not cut backeconomy, while 51 percent said they had think large corporations are doing the on spending. www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 11
  14. 14. Decoding Consumers 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast • Cautious Consumers: 42 percent of A Closer Look at Not surprisingly, Optimistic Consumersadults said they are taking a wait-and-see Today’s Consumers have the highest average householdapproach and have cut back somewhat on income out of the three groups. Sixty-three Optimistic Cautious Hunkered-downspending until the economy improves. Consumers Consumers Consumers percent of Optimistic Consumers have an • Hunkered-Down Consumers: 37 annual household income of $50,000 or 21% 42% 37%percent of adults said they are very more, and the average income for theconcerned about the economy and have Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household group is $72,600. Cautious Consumers have Survey, 2011cut back significantly on spending. an average household income of $63,800, while Hunkered-Down Consumers have anThe Inside Scoop on Today’s Optimistic Consumers are age 65 or average income of $49,800.Consumer older, higher than the other two groups. On the national level, CautiousThe demographic profiles of the three Conversely, 43 percent of Hunkered-Down Consumers are the largest category, withconsumer groups are quite diverse. Nearly Consumers are between the ages of 45 and 42 percent of adults identifying themselvestwo-thirds of Optimistic Consumers (63 64, compared with 33 percent of Cautious with this group. The same holds truepercent) are men, while 57 percent of Consumers and 25 percent of Optimistic regionally—the Cautious group representsHunkered-Down Consumers are women. Consumers. the largest number of consumers in eachThe Cautious group is almost evenly split A majority of individuals in each of the of the four U.S. regions.between men and women. three consumer groups are employed, led by The Midwest region is home to the Optimistic Consumers have the highest 56 percent of Cautious Consumers. Seven- highest proportion of Optimistic Consumersrepresentation of younger and older teen percent of Hunkered-Down Consumers (27 percent), well above this group’s shareadults. Fifty-three percent of Optimistic are currently not employed, compared with in the South (20 percent), West (20Consumers are between the ages of 18 and 8 percent of individuals in the Optimistic and percent) and Northeast (18 percent). The44, compared with 48 percent of Cautious Cautious groups. Optimistic Consumers are West (39 percent) and South (38 percent)Consumers and 40 percent of Hunkered- slightly more likely to be retired than those regions have the highest proportion ofDown Consumers. Twenty-one percent of in the other two groups. Hunkered-Down Consumers.ConsumerConsumption Consumers who describe themselves as … OPTIMISTIC CAUTIOUS HUNKERED-DOWN Percent of all consumers 21% 42% 37% DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS Gender Male...................... 63% Male...................... 49% Male......................43% Female.................. 37% Female................... 51% Female...................57% Age 18 to 44................. 53% 18 to 44................. 48% 18 to 44.................40% 45 to 64................. 25% 45 to 64 ................ 33% 45 to 64.................43% 65 and Older........ 21% 65 and Older......... 16% 65 and Older.........15% Employment status Employed.............. 53% Employed.............. 56% Employed..............51% Not Employed........ 8% Not Employed......... 8% Not Employed.......17% Retired.................. 24% Retired.................. 20% Retired...................21% Household income Less Than $50k..... 29% Less Than $50k...... 39% Less Than $50k......56% $50k or More........ 63% $50k or More........ 53% $50k or More........37% Avg. Income.....$72,600 Avg. Income.....$63,800 Avg. Income.... $49,800Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 201112 National Restaurant Association | www.restaurant.org
  15. 15. 2012 Restaurant Industry Forecast Decoding ConsumersAn Economic Profile of Mapping Consumers’ MindsetToday’s Consumer Regional breakdown of the three consumer categories Optimistic............. 18%All three consumer groups share the same Cautious................ 45%cloudy current assessment of the nation’s Optimistic............. 27% Hunkered-Down... 37%economy, but Optimistic Consumers and Cautious................ 40% Hunkered-Down... 33%Cautious Consumers have a more optimis-tic outlook for 2012. Forty-four percent ofOptimistic Consumers and 32 percent of Optimistic............. 20%Cautious Consumers expect the economy Cautious................ 41%to get better in 2012, while less than one Hunkered-Down... 39%out of five think the economy will getworse. Among Hunkered-Down Consumers,only 20 percent expect the economy to get Optimistic............. 20%better in 2012, while 36 percent expect Cautious................ 42%economic conditions to worsen. Hunkered-Down... 38% Optimistic Consumers also are muchmore upbeat and optimistic than the othertwo groups about their personal financial Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2011situation. Seventy-three percent of Optimis-tic Consumers describe their currentpersonal finances as “excellent” or “good,” financial situation will improve in 2012. Seventy-two percent of Optimistic Consum-compared with 48 percent of Cautious The most striking economic difference ers said their current spending levels onConsumers and just 20 percent of Hunkered- between the three consumer categories is things like restaurants, entertainment,Down Consumers. All three groups are their discretionary spending levels com- clothing and travel are about the same asgenerally optimistic that their personal pared with before the recession began. they were before the recession began. OnlyWho’s Seeing Green:An Economic Profile of Today’s Consumers Consumers who describe themselves as … OPTIMISTIC CAUTIOUS HUNKERED-DOWN Percent of all consumers 21% 42% 37% ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS Current state of the nation’s economy Excellent/Good..... 13% Excellent/Good....... 8% Excellent/Good........4% Fair/Poor............... 87% Fair/Poor................ 92% Fair/Poor................96% Outlook for economy in 2012 Get Better............. 44% Get Better............. 32% Get Better.............20% Get Worse............. 19% Get Worse............. 18% Get Worse.............36% Current state of personal finances Excellent/Good..... 73% Excellent/Good..... 48% Excellent/Good......20% Fair/Poor............... 26% Fair/Poor................ 52% Fair/Poor................80% Outlook for personal financial situation in 2012 Get Better............. 41% Get Better............. 30% Get Better.............31% Get Worse............... 1% Get Worse............... 5% Get Worse.............17% Current spending levels on things like restaurants, Higher................... 12% Higher..................... 8% Higher...................11% entertainment, clothing and travel compared Lower.................... 16% Lower.................... 51% Lower....................67% with before the recession About the Same.... 72% About the Same.... 40% About the Same....20%Source: National Restaurant Association, National Household Survey, 2011 www.restaurant.org | National Restaurant Association 13

×