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2020 visions

  1. 1. VISIONS 2020Transforming Education and Training Through Advanced Technologies
  2. 2. VISIONS 2020 Transforming Education and Training Through Advanced Technologies Table of ContentsTechnologies and Learning Ruzena Bajcsy, Director, Center for Information Technology Research in the Interest of Society, University of California at BerkeleyTeaching in 2025: Education and Technology Transformed Vinton Cerf, Senior Vice President for Internet Architecture and Technology, WorldCom, and Caleb Schutz, President, Marco Polo Foundation, President, WorldCom Foundation, Vice President, WorldComA Day in the Life of a Young Learner: A 2020 Vision Milton Chen, Executive Director and Stephen D. Arnold, Vice Chair, George Lucas Educational FoundationVignettes About the Future of Learning Technologies Chris Dede, Wirth Professor of Learning Technologies, Harvard Graduate School of EducationA Vision for Life Long Learning – Year 2020 Randy Hinrichs, Group Research Manager, Learning Science and Technology, Microsoft Research, with Introduction by Bill Gates, Chairman and Chief Software Architect, Mic rosoft CorporationPlaying Games to Learn Complex Skills: Computer Simulation for Medic Training Gerald A. Higgins, SimQuest International, LLC and the Federation of American ScientistsNext Generation Learning Systems and the Role of Teachers The Learning Federation2020 Classroom Ulrich Neumann and Chris Kyriakakis, Integrated Media Systems Center, University of Southern CaliforniaA Curmudgeon’s Vision for Technology in Education Randy Pausch, Co-Director, Entertainment Technology Center, Carnegie Mellon UniversityEncompassing Education Diana Walczak, Artistic Director and Cofounder, Kleiser-WalczakFuture of Education = Technology + Teachers R. Stanley Williams, H-P Fellow, Hewlett-Packard LaboratoriesA Visit to the Springdale School System in 2012 John I. Wilson, Executive Director, National Education AssociationMotivational Technology Will Wright, Chief Designer and Co-Founder, MaxisThe Last Teacher Michael Zyda, Director, The MOVES Institute, Naval Postgraduate School, and Douglas H. Bennett, Study Director, National Research Council’s Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board The views expressed by the authors of these visions do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of Commerce or the Federal government.
  3. 3. TECHNOLOGIES AND LEARNING Ruzena Bajcsy Director, Center for Information Technology Research in the Interest of Society University of California at Berkeley The goal of technology, and especially going BACK and FORTH in time. A fewinformation technology, must be to create an examples might be: walk through old Rome,environment where every learner will have a old Egypt, old Harlem, and their like or alsoseries of resources and teachers in different a walk through FUTURE New York, or adiscipline expertise and in different locations, devastated or polluted environment, etc.with a teacher/mentor to help organize the 6. A tool for the handicapped population, (thisinformation, and help the student pursue some includes elderly). Technology can serve asareas in depth. This is currently too expensive, an extension and enhancer for their missingbut there is hope that several upcoming capabilities, being either perceptual,technologies listed below can be deployed in the physical or cognitive, so that they canfuture. equally receive the delivered information for As we know, the MOTIVATION of the a given subject, just as the normallearner is the most important factor in learning. population. Several examples might be, forHence the question becomes - how can the visually impaired, one can have brailtechnology help and facilitate motivation during lettered terminals and input/output devices.the process of learning? For paraplegic subjects there are several robotic customized devices for interacting We do not advocate replacing the human with teaching material. For the cognitivelyteacher with the technology! Future technology impaired population, the teaching materialmust live in a symbiotic relationship amongst must be adapted properly. Here the softwareteachers, students, parents and society at large. enabler mentioned in example1 will be ofWe view the technology as an ENABLER in a use.number of ways: Finally, this technology can be of great help1. Help organize and provide structure for the among the multilingual population, with teacher’s material to students automated translators available both to teachers,2. Help students, teachers and parents interact students and parents. (anytime and anywhere), in order to follow The above enablers depend mostly on progress of learning in a given subject subjects which are sufficiently conceptualized3. Facilitate and assist in the authentication, and can be delivered through media, such as search and prioritization of the digital television or computer screens. Here the material available on the WEB, which in this information is textual, verbal or pictorial. case serves as a world wide encyclopedia However, there are skills to be learned that4. Simulate and visualize structures and require physical interaction with the world, processes which are the result of physical, and/or carrying out an experiment. Here again, chemical, biological and engineering models the ideal situation would be for each student to and to interact in real time with them have their own experimental setup. However, in many cases this is not possible for a variety of5. Help in learning history, and /or future trends because technology can reconstruct reasons, not the least of which is the cost life and, hence facilitate visualization of involved.
  4. 4. for the teaching and training of cooperative activities, such as playing in an orchestra, This technology can help again! dancing in an ensemble, coordinated war games, 1. In order to have access to expensive coordinated manufacturing and their like. It is laboratories and facilities, one can not too difficult to extrapolate the one deploy tele -robotic technologies. With teache r/student scenario to multi-students and these tele -robots, students can interact one director scenario by deploying the with the physical experiment. They can distributed tele -mmersive environments. see, hear and feel the affects of the One open question remains – Can the tele - interaction and ask “what if “ questions. presence reproduce a sense of being there so that These kinds of interactions not only help what is learned transfers to the real world? students to understand and embody the knowledge, but it also keeps student’s All of this technology will never be used engagement active, which helps them to unless there is sustained and substantial be motivated. investment into the necessary infrastructure covering not only schools, but libraries and 2. The most advanced and most desirable homes, similar to the investment that was made technology is the creation of a tele - in the past in electrification and later in immersive environment for teaching and telephone infrastructure. learning. This is a three dimensional virtual space, which mimics the real ********** space both visually, aurally and tactually. It is one in which both the student/apprentice and teacher/master can meet and interact. This technology does not exist yet but it is very feasible from what we know today. The advantages of such an environment aremany. First, the students and teachers do nothave to be physically collocated. Secondly, theteacher can advise/coach several students andyet the student would feel that he/she is the onlyone getting the teacher’s full attention. Third, this technology would facilitate Dr. Ruzena Bajcsy was appointed Directordemonstration/coaching of physical and/or of CITRIS at the University of California,mechanical skills (such as surgery, operating Berkeley on November 1, 2001. Prior to comingcomplex machinery, etc.), which require true to Berkeley, she was Assistant Director of thespatio-temporal observations of the master. In Computer Information Science and Engineeringturn the master can make the same spatio- Directorate (CISE) between December 1, 1998temporal observations of the students and give and September 1, 2001. As head of Nationalnot only verbal but also mechanical feedback. Science Foundation’s CISE directorate, Dr.This feedback is critic al for the apprentice since Bajcsy managed a $500 million annual budget.it will give him/her a sense of being in direct She came to the NSF from the University oftouch with reality, of being able to control Pennsylvania where she was a professor ofevents and get the perceptual feedback computer science and engineering.concerning how he/she is doing. Dr. Bajcsy is a pioneering researcher in Finally, we can speculate on multi-site tele - machine perception, robotics and artificialimmersive environments which may be needed intelligence. She is a professor both in the Computer and Information Science Department2 / Bajcsy 2020 Visions
  5. 5. and in the Mechanical Engineering and AppliedMechanics Department at Berkeley. She is alsoa member of the Neuroscience Institute and theSchool of Medicine. She is also Director of theUniversity of Pennsylvania’s General Roboticsand Active Sensory Perception Laboratory,which she founded in 1978. Dr. Bajcsy has done seminal research in theareas of human-centered computer control,cognitive science, robotics, computerizedradiological/medical image processing andartificial vision. She is highly regarded, notonly for her significant research contributions,but also for her leadership in the creation of aworld -class robotics laboratory, recognizedworld wide as a premiere research center. Sheis a member of the National Academy ofEngineering, as well as the Institute of Medicine.She is especially known for her wide-ranging,broad outlook in the field and her cross-disciplinary talent and leadership in successfullybridging such diverse areas as robotics andartificial intelligence, engineering and cognitivescience. Dr. Bajcsy received her master’s and Ph.D.degrees in electrical engineering from SlovakTechnical University in 1957 and 1967,respectively. She received a Ph.D. in computerscience in 1972 from Stanford University, andsince that time has been teaching and doingresearch at Penn’s Department of Computer andInformation Science. She began as an assistantprofessor and within 13 years became chair ofthe department. Prior to her work at theUniversity of Pennsylvania, she taught duringthe 1950s and 1960s as an instructor andassistant professor in the Department ofMathematics and Department of ComputerScience at Slovak Technical University inBratislava. She has served as advisor to morethan 50 Ph.D. recipients. In 2001 she receivedan honorary doctorate from University ofLjubljana in Slovenia In 2001 she became a recipient of the ACMA. Newell award.Visions 2020 Bajcsy / 3
  6. 6. TEACHING IN 2025: EDUCATION AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFORMED Vint Cerf Sr. Vice President for Internet Architecture and Technology WorldCom and Caleb Schutz President, MarcoPolo Education Foundation President, WorldCom Foundation Vice President, WorldCom Her students logged out hours ago, but the Directing her computer to transcribe theseasoned teacher is not quite ready to call it a conversation as they talk, she continues, “I wasday. Thirty years in the classroom has taught just thinking about the transformationher the importance of being prepared. Staying technology has brought to the classroom in theone step ahead of her students has been a way of last 25 years. You’re just beginning your careerlife for a long time. Yet, there is a rigor to her in the classroom equipped equally with thepace that suggests she is nearing the end, like a blackboard and the keyboard. How important todistance runner with a final burst of energy she you is the connected classroom?”wants to make the most out her remaining days “I can’t imagine it any other way,” says thein her classroom, although, classroom hardly younger teacher.seems an appropriate term anymore. “I thought as much, and that’s just the way it It is 2025, and traditional definitions and should be!” replies the veteran. “You take formodels in education have all been put to the test. granted continuous and speedy access to data,She reflects on the hundreds of thousands of e- integration of high-quality content, teachermail correspondences, virtual classrooms with training on-demand and mentor relationshipsstudents from around the world, data and e-mail online. It is a precious perspective; but one thatfrom astronauts taking core samples on Mars, did not come without discoveries, trials andmessages from frantic parents who are frustrations of many who have walked beforereviewing their son’s or daughter’s progress via you. I gather for you, the Internet is simplysecure databases. “We’ve come so far, or have there. It is no more amazing now than electricitywe?,” she ponders. This much is sure, or the telephone was for us at the very beginningtechnology has transformed classroom. of the third millennium. The very notion of A knocking sound coming from her Internet is disappearing for you because a worldcomputer turns the teacher from her thoughts without it is simply unthinkable.”and labor, “yes,” she says to the screen, “Come “Most certainly, but what sort of challengesin.” A visual of a door opens on her screen did you face as an educator in earlier days andrevealing the image of a young teacher half a how were they overcome?” asks the youngworld away, “Hello, I hope I am not disturbing teacher.you.” “No, not all,” says the veteran teacher. “At the time,” continues the veteran, “I heard yesterday you announced your “hardware and awkward user interfaces seemedretirement,” the younger teacher says, “I want to the formidable foes. “Broadband access tosay that I will miss working with you and your information, wired or wireless, for thestudents. You’ve been a mentor and a trusted consuming public, was neither reliable norfriend.” affordable. Once technological and political “Thank you, the pleasure is mine ,” responds barriers were broken, machinery and accessthe veteran. “In fact, I am glad you called.” costs dropped and the flood of information
  7. 7. began to rush in. The challenge was, and television of a man walking on the moon!remains today, designing technical solutions Technology has a way inspiring minds to dreamthat, however wondrous, contain a sustainable, big dreams.”scalable economic model and encompass easily “MarcoPolo and other early settlers ofused interfaces to access all the features of this quality content on the Internet frontier began torich information environment. Now, about two transform education. Suddenly, standards-basedthirds of the world’s eight billion people have content mattered, professional developmentanytime, anywhere, anyhow access at an mattered, assessment and databases matteredaffordable price.” and teachers and their students, the final arbiters “Let me pause to point out the obvious. For of success, would dictate and direct future use ofabout 2 billion people today, the Internet is NOT technology in education.”a reality; it is yet a distant dream or perhaps “But how did you get from the early days ofentirely unknown. Electricity is still unknown or email and chat rooms to collaborative learningunavailable or unreliable. Sanitation, housing, we have today?” inquires the young teacher.food, water and education are in limited supply. “My world and my role today as a teacher isFor those parts of our globa l society, Internet very different from what you describe. I’veand its benefits seem far beyond reach. We been trained as a facilitator of information andmust not give up pursuit, however idealistic, of critical thin king, I rarely lecture. And, theaccess for all. Internet is for me not just a collection of facts, “Running closely with these challenges was but a living organism of ideas and experimentalthe whole notion of the proper training and use opportunity. Knowledge and understanding areof content. Learning how to use technology derived from countless exchanges of informationturned out to be at least as challenging as and collaborative explorations of concepts andbuilding it. The first computers and online experiments involving sources around the globe.access arrived in my old style classroom back in Parent-teacher meetings are a regular occurrencethe mid 1990’s. We were all entranced: because we correspond online or meet at theteachers, administrators, parents. Computers entrance of their daughter’s online portfolio toand access had arrived, golden days were ahead, review progress.”or so we thought. We know it is never that easy. “And it has been a remarkable evolution ofWith all the focus on the technology and access, ideas, uses and technologies,” says the veteran.almost nobody was exploring what to do with “Internet and online education keep studentsthe computers once access arrived. Where would engaged like nothing in the past. I know youwe go for content and training, how would the and your students have participated with mine inInternet color education?” our virtual engineering lab that allows students “One early voice was MarcoPolo, an to enter the MUD (multi-user domain) lab asInternet content and teacher training program scientists with virtual tools of their choice todedicated to providing free, top quality, conduct experiments and participate in projectsstandards-based online content coupled with with others. Last week, one team of studentsteacher training focused on real application of was even successful at accessing andInternet in the K-12 classroom. I was trained manipulating a probe in the virtual lab that wasand then trained many others in the late 1990’s linked to a real satellite in space collecting dataon how to integrate Internet into the classroom. on the sun’s rays. Data was sent back to theMarcoPolo, for all of us, was a revelation of virtual lab for student analysis, and I was able tosorts. In an instant, the power and potential of track their progress. In early days, this wouldthe Internet and connectedness with people have been a very expensive pilot program forplaces and machines around the globe made one class while thousands of other eagersense. We’d gather in a computer lab eagerly to students idled on the sidelines watching. Today,observe delivery of an interactive lesson on interactive collaboration is standard practice andbuilding and understanding three-dimensional just one of the required assignments designed toshapes. You’d have thought we were your grand monitor the pace of a team’s understanding. Ourparents eagerly awaiting the images on role now is not that of the keeper and provider of2 / Cerf and Schutz 2020 Visions
  8. 8. all knowledge, but that of a guide and we can that programs take time to build, we cannot givemonitor student progress individually. up on valuable programs, perseverance is key toAsynchronous learning, or self-paced online success.”learning now allows students do most of their “Collaboration with your class and teams ofwork outside of a standard, shortened lecture or other students around the world is tremendous,”presentation. Once equipped and capable to use says the younger teacher. “It’s the primarycore math and science principles, students were reason I was drawn into teaching.”free to explore their world. This allows me tospend more time interacting with students “An image comes to mind,” continues theindividually to cover particular strengths and younger. “The notion is quite old fashioned, butweaknesses. I look at my classroom today and I see many of the variants of the classic one-room “Of course tracking assessment and online schoolhouse. Internet access brings informationportfolios that follow a student’s work through on a range of topics from around the globe, andhis or her school career are remarkable changes even nearby planets, into the classroom.as well. I remember the policy battles necessary Wireless workstations allow students into ato allow state school systems to create secure range of virtual environments to assembleonline files for each student. But, with research teams, collaborate, mentor and teachuniversities everywhere competing for students each other. Technology and the Internet makeand engaging in borderless learning and this possible. We’ve come full circle, but thiscompanies around the globe all calling for time, the one-room schoolhouse has limitlessdemonstrable proof that tomorrow’s workers are windows to the world beyond.”equipped, action was necessary. As you canimagine, these tools also had major implications “You might be right,” says the veteran. “Ifor privacy. If it were not for new encryption think we can be assured that role of the educatortechnologies and much better operating system is just as important today as in times past.designs focused at online education it would Without guidance from teachers and essentialhave been tough to do. navigation tools, our students have no more chance than a ship without a rudder.” “The last driver of change,” she continues,“was the ability of quality programs to be able to “Thank you,” says the young teacher. “Iscale -up and endure. In the early days, myriad enjoy these conversations.”pilot programs dotted the landscape. Distance “So do I,” says the veteran. “Thank you forlearning programs of every shape and size, your thoughts and please keep in touch.”custom web sites for every conceivableeducational issue, programs that all promised a “I will,” says the young teacher, “and herelot, but were unable to deliver. Similar to the come my students, so I’ll sign-off, goodbye.”dot-com bust in 2000, the online education “Happy exploring,” says the veteran,sector had to go through its own contractions. In “goodbye.”the process, the lesson we’ve learned is that thebest education technology solutions are those The visual door on her computer closes andthat can scale in terms of users and economics. she is alone again in the classroom. “Computer,”Models that operate more like an isolated island the veteran says, “save this transcript in filerun counter to the notion of a network and costs memoirs-2025-4-10!”are driven down when programs can involve a Remarkable, she thinks, ten time zonesmillion users as easily as they reach one class. apart, visiting and chatting online, in our ownOne aspect became very clear: each individual languages, and the intelligent network providedstudent needed to be free to explore the translation and transcription!information and experimentation spaceindependently or in small collaborative groups. As she closes down her virtual workbook forScaling was a direct side-effect of the degree to the night, the veteran is warmed by the idea thatwhich individuals and small groups could work half a world away a teacher is making amore or less independently. We must recall also difference in young lives. Good teachers matter.2020 Visions Cerf and Schutz / 3
  9. 9. Where will education be when he retires?, shemuses. The mind can only imagine. ********** Caleb M. Schutz leads the WorldCom Foundation and the newly formed MarcoPolo Education Foundation, and serves as corporate vice president for WorldCom. Under his Vinton G. Cerf is senior vice president of leadership, the foundation took a bold stepArchitecture and Technology for WorldCom. forward in 1997 with the introduction ofCerfs team of architects and engineers design MarcoPolo to focus the countrys teachers andadvanced networking frameworks including policymakers on Internet Content for theInternet-based solutions for deliv ering a Classroom. In partnership with leadingcombination of data, information, voice and educational and content organizations,video services for business and consumer use. MarcoPolo provides teachers with standards- based Internet resources designed for Widely known as one of the "Fathers of the integration into the classroom curriculum.Internet," Cerf is the co-designer of the TCP/IP Today, MarcoPolo’s top quality, standards-protocols and the architecture of the Internet. based K-12 content is enjoyed by 300,000 web-In December 1997, President Clinton presented using teachers every month. In addition, 10,000the U.S. National Medal of Technology to Cerf teachers are trained every month on MarcoPoloand his partner, Robert E. Kahn, for founding and the goal is to train 2.4 million teachers byand developing the Internet. 2005. With the creation of the new MarcoPolo Prior to rejoining MCI in 1994, Cerf was Education Foundation, Mr. Schutz is focused onvice president of the Corporation for National moving MarcoPolo into this public charity toResearch Initiatives (CNRI). As vice president broaden the funding base and continueof MCI Digital Information Services from 1982- providing needed content and training to the1986, he led the engineering of MCI Mail, the nation’s teachers.first commercial email service to be connected Mr. Schutz joined MCI WorldCom in 1996to the Internet. as director of the foundation and was During his tenure from 1976-1982 with the responsible for foundation strategy, operationsU.S. Department of Defenses Advanced and company-wide corporate contributions.Research Projects Agency (DARPA), Cerf Prior to joining WorldCom, he spent severalplayed a key role leading the development of years as a consultant to corporate and privateInternet and Internet-related data packet and foundations, educational institutions andsecurity technologies. associations. Previously, Schutz worked for ********** more than 15 years at IBM corporation helping to reengineer and implement the companys worldwide contributions and community relations strategy.4 / Cerf and Schutz 2020 Visions
  10. 10. A D AY IN THE L IFE OF A Y OUNG LEARNER: A 2020 VISION Milton Chen Executive Director The George Lucas Educational Foundation and Stephen D. Arnold Vice Chair The George Lucas Educational Foundation Illustrations by Greg Knight “Technology helps overcome the two Malia and two of her classmates, Sahar and enemies of learning: isolation and Osvaldo, are seated in comfortable task chairs at a abstraction.” multimedia production and communications George Lucas station. Facing them is a high-resolution, Chairman, The George Lucas luminescent display screen, viewable from front Educational Foundation and back, where combinations of images, text, and digital video can be summoned by voice command. July 15, 2020: On a foggy summer day inSan Francisco, 11-year-old Malia is hard at Osvaldo, born blind, uses the assistivework–in school. In 2007, her school district technology of a digital “visual prosthesis system”changed from the 9-month school calendar, to see. The system consists of a minicamerarecognizing that teaching and learning are mounted on eyeglasses with signal processors andyear-round activities and that the long summer electrodes stimulating his visual cortex, avacation was only an anachronism from a time technology first pioneered on Patient Alpha inwhen children were needed to bring in the 2002. Unlike blind students of previouscrops. Her school looks and feels like a cross generations, Osvaldo is able to partici ate fully in pbetween a working office, a public library, and all activities with sighted students.a movie set, with individual student cubicles “Give us our team project on volcanoes,”decorated to express each student’s personality Osvaldo asks the school’s server, enabling theand interests, and 10 large multimedia team to review its progress during the previousproduction and research centers, enough for a week. Their research using the Global Learningwhole class. Nearly all of the furniture is on Network has led them to the Hawaii Volcanoeswheels so that work areas can be easilyreconfigured to adapt to the needs of particularstudent activities. The school’s design wasinspired by Minnesota’s School ofEnvironmental Studies, founded in 1995, but apioneer in its time in new school architecture. At the start of this school day, theclassroom environment is brimming withstudent teams chatting about last night’sonline exchanges and organizing to continuetheir work on the class earth science unit.
  11. 11. National Park website, where they havewitnessed several hours of video footage ofvolcanic eruptions, observed volcanologists atwork tracking and measuring lava flows, andwatched interviews with them. The siteincluded a 3-D time-lapse hologram of the1983 Mount Kilauea eruption on the BigIsland. Through the time compression of time-lapse photography, they were able to witnesslava flows over the past 40 years. They hadmade a copy of the hologram and left it in theclassroom for use by other students. Yesterday, donning special virtual realityheadgear, they had gone on a simulated trip tothe lava fields, giving them an on-the-groundsensation of hiking across acres of older lavaformations to arrive at a scene of bright orangelava flowing towards the sea. “How cool wasthat,” Malia grins. “You could hear the lavacrackling.” Last night, from their homes, theyhad brainstormed some questions inpreparation for an interview with a volcanoexpert, scheduled for today. “Last night’sinterview questions,” requests Sahar. The “OK, we’re ready for our appointment withsystem promptly displays the students’ work the volcanologist at Hawaii Volcanoes Nationalon the screen. Park,” Malia announces. The face of Harold Levitt, the Park’s chief of interpretation, appears Their teacher, Kavery Dutta, stops by to in the familiar green uniform of a National Parkobserve their discussion as they prepare for Service Ranger. Responding to their questions,their videoconference. “You know,” she Ranger Levitt leads them through several moreadvises them, “it would be great to also look at screens of images showing video news clips andwhat volcanoes meant to the native Hawaiians data sources dating back to the Mount Kilaueacenturies ago. They believed in a goddess of eruption; the science and chemistry of volcanoesfire, Pele.” She gives them some resources to (including dangers such as the release of sulfuricsearch and access from the University of fumes); and the human impact on localHawaii Digital Library. She also suggests they communities, from devastation of homes tolook up the pioneering work of MIT geologist increased tourism. Malia and her classmates areThomas Jaggar, who founded the Hawaiian also able to observe today’s lava flows in real timeVolcano Observatory in 1912 and persuaded from cameras trained on the site, enjoying theCongress to preserve the area as a national chance to watch the creation of black sand whenpark. hot lava meets the cold ocean water. Ms. Dutta strolls over to check in with Malia asks, “A few weeks ago, we had a smallanother group of students. One of them is earthquake here. We felt it but it didn’t damageholding a sample of volcanic rock, while anything. How are earthquakes related toanother examines it under a handheld digital volcanoes?” On another screen, Ranger Levittmicroscope, with the magnified image calls up a simulation of plate tectonics and showsprojectable on a large screen behind them. A them cross-sections of the Earth, as well as aerialthird student is examining the volcano satellite photos from different elevations, withhologram left by Malia’s group. overlaid graphics indicating earthquake fault zones in the Bay Area and then San Francisco. For other2 / Chen and Arnold 2020 Visions
  12. 12. experts, he refers them to the U. S. Geological Malia requests, “The lesson on soccer,Survey offices in the Bay Area. Malia and her please,” which begins with a scene of Chineseclassmates make a voicenote in their ongoing soccer star, Chen Mingde, dribbling around aproject record to ask their teacher about Brazilian defender and scoring with a precise kickmaking a field trip and to look up the USGS into the corner of the net. The play-by-playwebsite. commentary is heard in Mandarin, with both the romanized phonetic system and Chinese characters After their 20-minute interview with shown as captions at the bottom of the screen. TheRanger Levitt, recorded on the school’s server individual words and characters light up as theyto become a part of the project archive, the are spoken.students quickly review the video transcriptand earmark some of his comments for As Malia practices her pronunciation of thepossible use in their final multimedia report. scene, the system provides feedback, allowing herAt the end of the two-hour session, they make to hear her rendition and then a digitally correcteda multimedia summary of their work, calendar version, ensuring that she improves hernext meetings, and assign themselves pronunciation of the four tones, a typicallyhomework before their next meeting. They difficult task for English speakers.each place a copy of today’s workfile in their Through this online system, she is also able todigital backpack, a rugged mobile personal converse with students with similar interests incomputer and communications console other countries and engage in mutual language“checked out” by each student at the tutoring. “I’d like to talk to Xiaoyan,” Malia says,beginning of the school year, the way asking the system to call her online friend,textbooks used to be issued. Xiaoyan Zhao, an 11-year-old girl who lives in Malia’s “digipack” allows her to spend Shanghai and goes by the nickname of “XYZ.”some more time on her volcanoes project later XYZ appears on screen at lunchtime in her schoolin the afternoon after walking a few blocks to cafeteria, speaking in English while Maliaher father’s office. As she waits for him to practices her Chinese as they help each other withfinish his work, she uses it to connect to the vocabulary and pronunciation. They promise toschool’s library information system and the make short videos introducing their familynow-widely-available wireless network. members to each other and send them in the nextSearching links and browsing through week.references on Hawaiian mythology, shewatches a short video clip on the Goddess Peleon her viewscreen, recording some voicenotesto share with her project partners at schooltomorrow. Later that night at home, Malia ispracticing her Chinese in the family room. Shehopes to visit China one day and has beenusing an online language learning system togain proficiency in basic Chineseconversation, reading, and writing. Heryounger sister, Sonia, likes to look on and sitsby her side as they face a multimedia screensimilar to those in their schools. They bothhold handheld digital devices serving asChinese-English dictionaries for looking upwords and phrases in both languages, in textand audio. They can also store their ownspoken phrases.2020 Visions Chen and Arnold / 3
  13. 13. Malia mentions she’s working on a Cable in the Classroom, bigchalk.com, and Childvolcanoes project at school, and XYZ recalls Research Net in Japan. He has been a director ofthat her geography class had studied Mount research at Sesame Workshop and assistantFuji, named after Japan’s ancestral Fire professor at the Harvard Graduate School ofGoddess. Malia captures XYZ’s comment as a Education.voicenote and mails it to her classmates as a *********suggestion for extending their research. As Malia finishes her conversation andlogs off, her father enters the room and asksher the age -old question parents have askedtheir children for generations: “So what didyou do at school today?” As Maliaenthusiastically recounts her day, and herexcitement about returning to schooltomorrow, he shakes his head in amazement.“And to think,” he recalls, “20 years ago, allwe had was the Internet.” ********** Stephen D. Arnold is a co-founder and managing general partner of Polaris Venture Partners. Prior to starting Polaris, he served as a special advisor to Burr, Egan, Deleage & Co, following more than 10 years in executive positions in the software industry. He served as vice president of Broadband Media Applications at Microsoft Corporation and as president and CEO of Continuum Productions (now Corbis), a private company founded by Bill Gates to pioneer the creation of large digital libraries for online distribution. Before coming to Continuum, he Milton Chen directs The George Lucas served as vice president and general manager ofEducational Foundation in the San Francisco LucasArts Games and Learning divisions, and viceBay Area, a Web-based operating foundation president of the New Media Group at Lucasfilmthat creates media --films, books, newsletters Ltd. He continues to serve as vice chairman of theand a Web site (glef.org)--to promote success board of directors of the George Lucasstories in public schools and the use of Educational Foundation.technology. In 2002, GLEFs Web site was **********named "best organizational Web site" by theAssociation of Educational Publishers. Prior References:to joining the Foundation in 1998, Dr. Chen Minnesota’s School of Environmental Studies.was the Center Director of the KQED Center www.glef.org/redesigning (The George Lucasfor Education & Lifelong Learning (PBS -San Educational Foundation website) andFrancisco), delivering public TV www.isd196.k12.mn.us/Schools/sesprogramming and services for teachers,parents, and community groups. Mr. Chen “Vision Quest: A Half Century of Artificial Sight -has been a director of research at Sesame Research has Succeeded.” Wired, SeptemberWorkshop in New York and an assistant 2002.professor at the Harvard Graduate School ofEducation. He serves on advisory boards for4 / Chen and Arnold 2020 Visions
  14. 14. VIGNETTES ABOUT THE F UTURE OF L EARNING TECHNOLOGIES Chris Dede Wirth Professor of Learning Technologies Harvard Graduate School of Education In a decade or two, three complementary **********interfaces will shape how people learn: First are two vignettes that illustrate the• The familiar “world to the desk top” types of learning technologies young learners interface, providing access to distant experts might routinely experience before they attend and archives, enabling collaborations, high school and college. mentoring relationships, and virtual ********** communities-of-practice. This interface is evolving through initiatives such as Vignette 1. “Take a deep breath,” Maria told Internet2. her mother, “then blow it out into the balloon.” Deftly, as soon as her mother had• Interfaces for “ubiquitous computing,” in finished, Maria used a plastic clamp to pinch which portable wireless devices infuse the neck of the special balloon, then measured virtual resources as we move through the its circumference. “All done, Mama!” she real world. The early stages of “augmented said, writing down the number in her reality” interfaces are characterized by notebook. Her mother sneezed, then sank research on the role of “smart objects” and back on the coach with a smile of approval. “intelligent contexts” in learning and doing. Even though her sinuses ached—and that deep• “Alice-in-Wonderland” multi-user virtual breath had not helped—she enjoyed helping environments interfaces, in which Maria with her daily homework. After all, participants’ avatars interact with computer- participating in the allergy study project not based agents and digital artifacts in virtual only involved her child more deeply in school, contexts. The initial stages of studies on but also subsidized the Web-TV box that shared virtual environments are provided the family access to sports and characterized by advances in Internet games entertainment websites. Maria was navigating and work in virtual reality. to the appropriate site, then logging her mother’s lung-capacity figure into the national The vignettes below are images of plausible database. Her little brother watched,futures that depict how applying these interfaces fascinated by the colored visualizationsmight reshape teaching, learning, and the displaying the complex ecological,organization of educational institutions. The meteorological, and pollution factors thatobjective of these vignettes is not to detail predicted today’s likely allergic responses inblueprints of an unalterable future, but instead to Maria’s region of the city.show the range of possibilities enabled byemerging interactive media and the Maria’s teacher, Ms. Grosvenor, was alsoconsequences—desirable and undesirable —that sighing out a deep breath at that moment, butmay flow from their application in pre-college not into a balloon. While eating a Ho-Ho forand higher education settings. Such visions breakfast, she was using her home computer tosuggest decisions that researchers should make access a different part of the allergy studytoday to explore the potential of these website, a section with guidance for teacherstechnologies while minimizing unintended and about how to cover today’s classroom lessonnegative outcomes of their use. on regional flora. Her preservice education a
  15. 15. decade ago had provided some background in impressed by the complex material andecology, but—now that fifth grade students sophisticated skills their children werewere mastering material she had not learned mastering. Even standardized test scores—until the end of high school—Ms. Grosvenor which measured only a fraction of what wasfrequently used the website to update her really happening—were rising. Mostknowledge about allergenic plants. important, young girls such as Consuela wereSometimes the sophisticated multi-level model more involved with school. Because of theirscientists and doctors were developing, made culture, Hispanic girls had been very reluctantpossible by micro-regional data supplied by to approach adult authority figures, likelearners all across the country, made her head teachers--but the MUVE had altered that byache for reasons other than sinuses! On the providing a “costume party” environment inother hand, at least the students were quite which, wearing the “mask” of technology,involved in this set of science activities. children’s and teachers’ avatars could mingleDiscussions in the “Teachers’ Forum” of the without cultural constraints. “I wonder whatwebsite reaffirmed her own feeling that most this generation will be like in high school—orteachers would rather have the small hassle of college!” mused Mr. Curtis.keeping up with new ideas than the constant (Dede, 2000)struggle of trying to motivate students to learn **********boring lessons. Vignette 2. Alec and Arielle strolled through At the same time, in her elementary Harvard Yard on their way to the museum, toschool’s computer Lab, Consuela was collect data for their class assignment. Eachthreading her way through a complex maze. carried a handheld device (HD) that softlyOf course, the maze was not in the Lab, but in pulsed every time they walked past a buildingthe “Narnia” MUVE (a text-based Multi-User in the Yard. The vibration signaled that theVirtual Environment developed around the building would share information about itsstories by C.S. Lewis). Her classmates and architecture, history, purpose, and inhabitants,fellow adventurers Joe and Fernando were using interactive wireless data transfer.“with” her, utilizing their Web-TV Sometimes Alec would stop and use his HD toconnections at their homes, as was her mentor, ask questions about an interesting lookinga small bear named Oliver (in reality, a high location. Today, he was in a hurry and ignoredschool senior interested in mythology who the pulses.assumed a Pooh-like “avatar” in the virtualworld of the MUVE). Mr. Curtis, the school Inside the museum, Alec and Arielle splitprincipal, watched bemused from the up to work on their individual assignments.doorway. How different things were in 2009, When Alec typed his research topic into thehe thought, students scattered across grade museum computer, it loaded a building maplevels and dispersed across the city, yet all into his HD, with flashing icons showingtogether in a shared, fantasy-based learning exhibits on that subject. At each exhibit, Alecenvironment a full hour before school even could capture a digital image on his HD,starts! (The school building opened at the download data about the artifacts and links tocrack of dawn to enable lab-based Web use by related websites, and access alternativelearners like Consuela, whose family had no interpretations about the exhibit. His HDaccess at home.) automatically supplied information about Alec’s age and background to ensure that the “The extra effort is worth it,” thought Mr. material he received was appropriate in nativeCurtis. Seven years into the technology language, reading level, and learning style.initiative, student motivation was high(increased attendance, learners involved While the museum-supplied informationoutside of school hours), and parents were was interesting, Alec always enjoyed the2 / Dede 2020 Visions
  16. 16. comments posted about each exhibit by other in the exercise, who is sitting at a similarkids. Sometimes, he added a few remarks of device in his suburban home thirty mileshis own to the ongoing discussion. Seeing a away. “Why did I have the bad luck to getcool artifact related to Arielle’s topic, Alec paired with this clown?” she thinks, noting thepaused to link to her HD, sending a digital vacant expression on his face in the videoimage of the exhibit and information on its window. “He probably spent last nightlocation. partying instead of preparing for the lesson.” A favorite saying of the community college Alec’s favorite exhibits were those faculty member to whom she is apprenticedaugmented by virtual environments. For flits through her mind, “The effectiveness ofexample, at a panorama showing the bones computer-supported cooperative work can befound at a tar pit, Alec’s HD depicted a virtual severely limited by the team’s weakestreconstruction of the dinosaurs that were member.”trapped at that prehistoric location. In thevirtual environment, he could assume the “Let’s begin,” says Karen decisively. “I’llperspective of each species and walk or fly or put on the DataArm (a manipulatory deviceswim through its typical habitat. Other types that incorporates force-feedback to its user) toof exhibit-linked virtual environments enabled find and remove the faulty component. You“time travel” to show how a particular spot on use the hypertext database to locate thethe earth’s surface had changed over the eons. appropriate repair procedure.” Without giv ingFor each epoch, Alec used virtual probes on Phil time to reply, she puts on her head-his HD to collect data about temperature, air mounted display, brings up an AR (artificialpressure, elevation, and pollutants. reality) depicting the interior of a TransStar communications groundstation receiver, and Walking back from the museum, Arielle begins strapping on the DataArm. The reality-and Alec shared what they had found. Both engine’s meshing of computer graphics andwondered what learning was like before video images presents a near-perfectaugmented reality and ubiquitous computing, simulation, although moving too rapidlywhen objects and locations were mute and causes objects to blur slightly. Slowly, sheinert. How lifeless the world must have been! grasps a microwrench with her “hand” on the(Dede, 2002) screen and begins to loosen the first fastener ********** on the amplifier’s cover. Haptic feedback The next vignette depicts types of from the DataArm to her hand completes theeducational technologies some secondary illusion, and she winces as she realizes the boltstudents might experience before college: is rusty and will be difficult to remove without breaking. ********** Dr. Dunleavy, the community collegeVignette 3. In a rural area about sixty miles vocational educator who serves as mentor tofrom the city, high school student Karen sits Karen and Phil, virtually monitors Karen’sdown at her information appliance (notepad avatar as she struggles with opening thedevice with the power of today’s simulated device. He notes approvingly thatsupercomputers), currently configured as an she seems as comfortable with the physical,electronics diagnosis/repair training device. hands-on parts of the job as well as theWhen sign-in is complete, the device intellectual analysis; both sets of skills areacknowledges her readiness to begin Lesson important in a future engineer. “DocumentingTwelve: Teamed Correction of a strong recommendation for AdvancedMalfunctioning Communications Sensor. Her Placement college credit via the Educational“knowbot” (machine-based agent) establishes Testing Service will be easy in her case,” hea telecommunications link to Phil, her partner thinks, “but Phil is in danger of failing this2020 Visions Dede / 3
  17. 17. unit. Maybe Ms. Tunbridge (the TransStar and cringes when he imagines his mentor’scommunications repair expert also serving as “avatar” delivering another lecture on hismentor for this experience) will offer him a shortcomings. Mentally, Phil begins phrasingjob right out of high school, giving him some an elaborate excuse to send his instructors viatime to mature before he heads for college.” email at the termination of the lesson. At his information appliance, Phil calls up For her part, Karen is exasperatedlythe hypertext database for Electronics Repair. watching the window on her AR display inOn the screen, a multicolored, three- which Phil’s diagnostic responses should bedimensional network of interconnections appearing. “He’s hopeless,” she thinks. Herappears and begins to rotate slowly. Just knowbot’s “consciousness sensor” (alooking at the knowledge web makes his eyes biofeedback link that monitors user attentionhurt. Since the screen resolution is excellent, and mood) interrupts with a warning: “Yourhe suspects that a lack of sleep is the culprit. blood pressure is rising rapidly; this could“Lesson Twelve,” says Phil slowly, and a trail trigger a migraine headache.” “Why,” saysis highlighted in the network. He begins to Karen with a sigh, “couldn’t I have lived inskim through a sea of stories, harvesting the age when students learned frommetaphors and analogies, while textbooks?”simultaneously monitoring a small window in (Dede, 2000)the upper left-hand corner of the screen that isbeginning to fill with data from the diagnostic **********sensors on Karen’s DataArm. The next vignette presents a portrayal of Several paragraphs of text are displayed at how emerging information technologies, ifthe bottom of the screen, ignored by Phil. unreflectively applied, could enrich someSince his learning style is predominantly aspects of higher education while alsovisual and auditory rather than symbolic, he exacerbating some of its weaknesses. Thislistens to the web as it vocalizes this textual depicts the daily routine of a faculty member amaterial, watching a graphical pointer couple decades from now and illustrates somemaneuver over a blueprint. Three figurines potential implications for colleges andgesture near the top of the display, indicating universities of artifacts with embeddedthat they know related stories. On the right intelligence. [The ideas and situations in thishand side of the monitor, an interest-based image of the future draw heavily on a scenariobrowser shows index entries grouped by issue, from Weiser (1991).]hardware configuration, and functional **********system. Vignette 4. Vesper is driving to work through Traversing the network at the speed at heavy rush hour traffic. She is a facultywhich Karen is working is difficult, given his member in computational engineering at alack of sleep, and he makes several missteps. university located far from her home in the“Knowledge Base,” says Phil slowly, “infer suburbs. Despite the long drive, the positionwhat the optical memory chip does to the was irresistible because the campus is notedthree-dimensional quantum well superlattice.” for its usage of advanced networkingThe voice of his knowbot suddenly responds, technologies. She glances in the foreview”You seem to be assuming a sensor flaw when mirror to check the traffic. {Commutersthe amplifier may be the proble m.” “Shut automobiles are hooked into a large networkup!” thinks Phil, hitting the cut-off switch. He that uses data sent by cars and highwaythen groans as he visualizes his knowbot sensors to monitor and coordinate the flow offeeding the cognitive audit trail of his actions traffic. The “foreview mirror” presents ainto the workstations of his mentors. He graphic display of what is happening up tocannot terminate those incriminating records4 / Dede 2020 Visions
  18. 18. five miles in front of her car on Vespers appropriate learners notepads to provideplanned route to work.} Noticing a traffic individualized remediation.slowdown ahead, Vesper taps a button on the As Vesper walks into the engineeringsteering column to check for alternate routes complex on campus, her personalized identitythat might be faster. A moment later, she tab registers her presence on the universityscancels the request for rerouting as the Net of security sensors. {In a clip-on badgeforeview mirror reveals the green icon of a displaying her picture and name, a smallfood shop on a side street near the next exit device is embedded that broadcastsfrom the freeway. The foreview mirror helps information about Vespers movements. Suchher to find a parking space quickly, and she an identity screening procedure is part of theorders a cup of coffee while waiting for the universitys security system. In this futuretraffic jam to clear. world, these elaborate precautions have While drinking her coffee, Vesper calls up unfortunately become necessary .} A momentsome work on the screen of her information later, the machines in her office initiate a log-appliance. {This device has the approximate in cycle in preparation for her arrival. Sheprocessing power of supercomputers a decade realizes that she has left her car unlocked, butfrom now and is about the size of a notepad. It does not bother to retrace her steps; from heris linked via wireless networking and office, she can access the network to lock herfiberoptic cable to a large web of other car via a remote command.information appliances, including those at As Vesper gets to her desk, the telltale byVespers campus.} The universitys diagnostic her door begins blinking, indicating that theexpert system for debugging prototype ULSI departments espresso machine has finisheddesigns can handle the routine misconceptions brewing her cafe au lait. {A telltale is atypical of most senior engineering majors, but remote signaling device that can be triggeredoccasionally is stumped by an unusual faulty to blink or make a sound, advising people inprocedure that some learner has its vicinity of some event happeningmisgeneralized. {At this point in history, a elsewhere.} Vesper drinks a cup of cafe au laitcomputer program trained to mimic human every morning on arriving. She heads downexperts can handle many routine aspects of the hall to get the coffee; the espresso makersevaluating student performance, but complex brew will be much better than the vile stuffassessments still require human involvement.} she had consumed at the food shop. On Vesper has an uncanny ability to returning to her office, she instructs herrecognize exotic error patterns by quickly knowbot to remind her not to stop there again.scanning a complex schematic. She diagnoses A copy of her evaluation is automaticallythree sets of student misgeneralizations before forwarded to the food shops manager and toresuming her trip to school. Her knowbot the local consumer ratings magazine.(semi-intelligent agent) automatically sends In the hour before class, as her seniorthis new "bug collection" to the national students “arrive,” they congregate in theirdatabase on design misconceptions to be various engineering labs to work on projectsentered into its statistical records. Her for their exhibition portfolios. (Of course,knowbot also forwards her diagnoses to the many of these students are not physicallyuniversitys expert system on ULSI design, located on Vesper’s campus; instead thewhich incorporates the new bugs into its facilities used by her students areknowledge base and begins preparing geographically scattered all over the world,intelligent tutoring systems modules to correct linked via broadband communications.)those particular errors. Later that day, this Vesper will “join” them in about half an hourinstructional material will be forwarded to the to begin instruction. She takes a break from viewing her videomail to “surveil” their2020 Visions Dede / 5
  19. 19. activities on their individual notepads. Valerie large-group classes, most from other higheris still dallying too long before getting down education institutions taught byto work; Vesper will have to speak with her. lecture/discussion across distance or viaRicardo has not arrived at his engineering computer-based training software. However,complex, but no message has come in to he will have some local seminar classes in hisindicate why he is later than usual. junior and senior year, this campus will arrange for an unpaid internship with a Skimming an engineering education regional employer., and he will receive ajournal, she notices a case study that degree from this university. In contrast, due toresembles a problem student in one of her her financial contribution, Elizabeth will becolleagues classes. His apprentice appears to offered mostly small-group classes,have a rare type of learning disability that predominantly local (although many fellowinterferes with developing a spatial sense of students in those classes will attend acrossgeometric relationships, an important skill in distance, as in Vesper’s instruction). Elizabethhis branch of engineering. Vesper sends an will also have a tele -mentoring relationshipexcerpt from the article to her colleagues with a nationally recognized expert inmachine with voice-mail appended explaining whatever major she chooses and a senior-yearits significance. She tends to avoid videomail, apprenticeship guaranteed with one of her fiveeven though its greater bandwidth empowers top choices of employers.more subtle shades of meaning. It is too muchtrouble to assume a professional demeanor just Down the hall, the university’s presidentto send a simple message. The knowbot in her chairs a meeting on their forthcoming re-journal-reading application notes that she accreditation. Since the last accreditation afound the article useful and reinforces the decade ago, major shifts have occurred. Manypattern recognizers that triggered its selection. students who enroll in this university’s courses live outside this region and will graduate from A small light on the edge of Vespers other colleges, while most local students takeglasses begins blinking. A phone call is the majority of their courses across distancecoming in; must be from someone not on the from other institutions, then have thesenetwork. "Activate," says Vesper (the only counted toward their graduation from here.word her glasses can recognize). A voice Due to excellent teaching, strong scholarlybegins speaking in her ear; Ricardos reputations, and distributed collaborationsgirlfriend, informing her that he is sick again. with industry, the faculty are better paid andWith a sigh, Vesper makes a note to prepare have smaller classes—they command highhardcopy homework that will be sent off by fees in the competitive national market forsnailmail—what a hassle! She will be glad distance course enrollments. However,when all governments finally recognize that determining “institutional quality” in thishome access to basic network services is a situation is a little confusing to the groupfundamental right, even if that does mean preparing for accreditation: How does onesubsidizing subscriptions for the poor. describe this type of distributed virtual Across campus, two graduates of local organization? Who counts as students?high schools are waiting their turn for faculty?individual consultations at the Admissions Before walking down to the lab to join herOffice. Both have equivalent, above-average students, Vesper decides to have atranscripts and want to attend college in this conversation with her colleague Dimitri. Bothcity, but Nick has no money to offer beyond received notifications last week about nextthe minimum subsidy this State provides, year’s salary. Vesper got a 15% raise becausewhile Elizabeth has $150,000 from her parents the spirited bidding nationally for the limitedto use on her postsecondary education. Nick distance-based enrollments in her classeswill be offered four years of predominantly6 / Dede 2020 Visions
  20. 20. drove up the university’s revenue and thus the Howie, the best technical wizard in the school,teaching part of her wages. Unfortunately, the was able to defeat the filtering system only toopposite happened to Dimitri; his salary the point of viewing the marble breasts ondropped 10%, as comparable faculty across statues. “Get a life,” thought Marcie.the country showed greater increases in Her best friend, Shelley, returned to theresearch visibility, student performance cubicle next to her. “You look mad,” Marcieoutcomes, and learners’ ratings of teaching whispered out of the corner of her mouth. Herperformance. All this led to reduced fees workstation’s microphone was very sensitive,being paid by prospective applicants to his and she did not want to spend more time inclasses and lower wages for him. Vesper is detention. “I got scolded by the monitor-bot,”trying to cheer up Dimitri by suggesting ways fumed Shelley, “because I did not take thehe can reverse this trend. This being subject most direct path back from the restroom.to the laws of supply and demand is upsetting What a drag!”to both instructors, but that is the price ofprogress… Just then a tone sounded in Marcie’s(Dede, 2000) earphones. Her five-minutes-per-hour break was over; time to get back to the worksheets. ********** “If I see one more cute virtual figure dancing As discussed earlier, this vignettes purpose around the screen,” she muttered to Shelley,is not to suggest that Vespers world is the only “I’m going to puke all over the keyboard andpossible future for higher education, but instead short out this loser.” “I agree,” Shelleyto illustrate the types of smart devices that will whispered back. “I’m so tired of multimedia, Ipermeate society in the future and the human can’t even stand to watch TV at night.”and organizational capabilities—and Meanwhile, Ms. Taylor patrolled amongchallenges—they enable. The f inal vignette her five classrooms. While the school boardbelow is deliberately crafted to suggest a type of appreciated the cost savings with adystopian future we could create if we pupil/teacher ratio of 150-to-1, maintainingmindlessly apply advanced technologies to order with that many students was hard eventeaching and learning. with the ever-vigilant Hal-tutors monitoring ********** each classroom. The teacher thought about the disturbing news she’d heard that day.Vignette 5. Disgusted and dismayed, Marcie While standardized test scores ofstared out the window. Ms. Taylor, the human “Superhighway High” graduates were the bestteacher, had once again bowed to the will of in the city, many were dropping out of collegeHal, the classroom’s machine-based in their second or third year. “Don’t they‘intelligent’ tutor. Despite student protests, appreciate the value of a fine high-techthe two co-instructors had raised the quota of education?” thought Ms. Taylor.worksheets to be completed each hour. “One (Dede, 1998)more brick on the load,” Marcie thought, “themore you do, the more they want.” ********** Superhighway Secondary School was the The important issue in effectiveness forenvy of the city, the magnet program in which learning is not the sophistication of theevery family tried to enroll their children. technologies, but the ways in which theirNothing but the best computers and capabilities aid and motivate users.telecommunications: ultra-fast workstations, The author’s recent testimony to Congresshigh-speed digital connections to the Internet, (Dede, 2001) presents a list of devices, media,the latest presentational multimedia and virtual contexts enabled by sophisticatedapplications, even neural-net filtering software information technologies, along with theto keep porn away from the nerds. Why even2020 Visions Dede / 7
  21. 21. estimates of a conservative timeframe for their grant from the Joyce Foundation to use Internet-technological and economic feasibility. That 2 interactive media for guidance and mentoringtestimony also indicates that the fundamental across distance.barriers to employing these technologies Chris recently served as a member of theeffectively for learning are not technical or National Academy of Sciences Committee oneconomic, but psychological, organizational, Foundations of Educational and Psychologicalpolitical, and cultural. Powerful methods for Assessment and a member of the U.S.scaling-up and transferring pilot Department of Educations Expert Panel onimplementations and for evolving the public’s Technology. He is on the International Steeringconceptions of learning and schooling are Committee for the Second Internationalessential to take full advantage of the Technology in Education Study spanningopportunities new technologies pose. approximately thirty countries. Chris is a ********** member of the Board of Directors of the Boston Tech Academy, an experimental small high school in the Boston Public School system, funded by the Gates Foundation. He serves on the Advisory Boards of ThinkLink, FreshPond, bigchalk, Celt, and World Book, as well as several U.S. Department of Education Regional Educational Labs and Regional Technology Centers. ********** References Dede, C. (2002). Augmented Reality through Ubiquitous Computing. Learning & Leading with Technology, 29, 8, 13. Chris Dede is the Timothy E. WirthProfessor of Learning Technologies at Dede, C. (2001). Creating Research Centers toHarvards Graduate School of Education. He is Enhance the Effective Use of Learningalso Chair of the Learning & Teaching Area in Technologies. (Testimony to the Researchthe School. His wo rk with schools includes Subcommittee, Science Committee, U.S. Houseservice on the National Technology Advisory of Representatitves, May 10th , 2001).Boards for the Milwaukee and Cleveland http://www.house.gov/science/research/reshearidistricts. He was the Editor of the 1998 ngs.htmAssociation for Supervision and Curriculum Dede, C. (2000). Emerging Technologies andDevelopment (ASCD) Yearbook, Learning with Distributed Learning in Higher Education. In D.Technology. His research includes two grants Hanna (Ed.), Higher Education in an Era offrom the National Science Foundation (1) to aid Digital Competition: Choices and Challenges,middle school students learning science via pp. 71-92. New York: Atwood.shared virtual environments with digitized Dede, C., (1998) Editor. Futures: Images ofmuseum artifacts and (2) to study the Educational Technology in the Next Millenniumeffectiveness of using modeling environments in (eight pages). Orlando, FL: Florida Educationalscience to enhance students educational Technology Conference.outcomes. He also has a grant from The AtlanticPhilanthropies to infuse learning technologies Weiser, M. (1991). The computer for theinto HGSEs teacher education program through 21st century. Scientific American 265, 3creating a virtual community of practice, and a (September), 94-1048 / Dede 2020 Visions
  22. 22. Mitfosrc A Vision for Life Long Learning – Year 2020 Introduction by Bill GatesBy: Randy Hinrichs Group Research Manager Learning Science and Technology Microsoft Research
  23. 23. Table of ContentsIntroduction...........................................................................................................................iOverview ............................................................................................................................. 1Learning 2020 – Innovative, Creative, Collaborative Workforce ...................................... 2 It Begins at Birth – Intelligent Toys ............................................................................... 2 Preschool – Game Based Learning ................................................................................. 2 The Early Years – Social Collaboration and Filtering.................................................... 2 Auto-Recommended Group Formation ...................................................................... 2 Student Generated Interactive e-Books....................................................................... 3 Virtual Mentors........................................................................................................... 3 Kindergarten 2020 Scenario ........................................................................................ 3 High School – Increased Community Communication .................................................. 4 Personalized Digital Libraries in Project Based Learning .......................................... 4 Internet in Your Ear .................................................................................................... 4 Ubiquitous Student Controlled Interfaces................................................................... 5 Learning Style Adaptation.......................................................................................... 5 High School 2020 Scenario ........................................................................................ 6 College and Lifelong Learning ....................................................................................... 7 Super Simulations and Sensors ................................................................................... 8 Intelligent Laboratory Objects .................................................................................... 8 Project Management ................................................................................................... 9 Higher Education 2020 Scenario ................................................................................ 9 Lifelong Learner 2020 Scenario ............................................................................... 10Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................... 11Author’s Background ........................................................................................................ 12
  24. 24. IntroductionComputing has already enriched and enhanced people’s lives in countless ways, butwe’ve only begun to see how it will transform our businesses, our governments and ourcommunities. In the next few years – a time I call the “digital decade” – we’ll seecomputing become a much more significant and indispensable part of all our lives.The pace of innovation is accelerating in all the core technologies of computing – fromprocessing power to storage to network bandwidth – making it possible for computers tobecome better connected, easier and more intuitive to use, even less costly, and capableof handling all kinds of information. While this will create countless opportunities forbusiness, entertainment and communication, the application of these technologies to theway people learn is the most important – and exciting.By giving students access to a new world of information, sparking creativity, andfacilitating rich communication and collaboration across vast distances, computers havelong been a powerful tool for education. At the same time, the Internet has brought anunprecedented level of great educational content to a wide audience, encouragingteachers to share curriculums and resources worldwide. E- mail has facilitated improvedcommunication among administrators, teachers, students, parents and educationalresearchers, and emerging Web services technologies will create further opportunities forcollaborative learning. Increased industry and government funding in learning sciencepromises to vastly improve the ways technology is applied to learning. And in the yearsahead, a whole generation of kids will leave college and enter the workforce with a broadunderstanding of the ways they can use technology effectively in their jobs.But we’ve still got a long way to go before we see how much technology can really do –particularly in education. Solving business problems with computers looks easy whencompared to the often complex and little-understood process of learning. And technologyis only part of the solution. All the computers in the world won’t make a differencewithout enthusiastic students, skilled and committed teachers, involved and informedparents, and a society that underscores the value of lifelong learning.Finding effective ways to use technology to enhance learning is a challenge thateducators, academics, policymakers and the technology industry must work together tosolve. The ideas and concepts outlined in this paper are just one step towards a betterunderstanding of how technology can help everyone – from preschoolers to lifelonglearners – to realize their full potential.Bill GatesChairman and Chief Software ArchitectMicrosoft Corporation i