<ul><li>Arab EF Annual Conference </li></ul><ul><li>Weathering the Storm </li></ul><ul><li>Marrakech, Morocco </li></ul>...
  <ul><li>Consumer  Spending </li></ul><ul><li>Government Spending </li></ul><ul><li>Export Development </li></ul><ul><li>...
  <ul><li>Global recession will not affect the Arab World as predicted. </li></ul><ul><li>Resource rich countries maintain...
  <ul><li>GDP growth for year 2008 was 6% </li></ul><ul><li>Predicted growth for 2009 is 3.1 % with exception of Abu Dhabi...
  <ul><li>Morocco, Tunis, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt and Syria will suffer delayed effect from the decreased remittance, touri...
  <ul><li>Syria will have US$b5 in government deficit </li></ul><ul><li>Egypt will suffer 35% reduction of Suez canal reve...
<ul><li>Gov. influence in economic or business decisions (incentives/subsidies, legislation, ownership and government expe...
1- Size of Government Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score Lebanon  8.6 Egypt  7.2 Bahrain  6.6 Morocco  6.6 Jordan  6.6 Oman ...
2 -  Legal Structure <ul><li>Impartiality of judiciary </li></ul><ul><li>Independence </li></ul><ul><li>Access to justice ...
2- Legal Structure   Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score KSA 8.1 Oman 8.0 Kuwait  7.8 Morocco  7.4 Libya 5.8 Syria 5.7 Algeri...
3 -  Access to Sound Money <ul><li>Power, responsibility and independence of the Central Bank. </li></ul><ul><li>Inflation...
3- Access to Sound Money   Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score Lebanon  9.3 Oman 9.1 Djibouti 9.1 KSA 9.1 Morocco 6.8 Sudan  ...
4 –  Freedom to exchange with foreigners    <ul><li>Taxes on international trade. </li></ul><ul><li>Regulatory trade barri...
4- Freedom to Exchange with foreigners   Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score Yemen  8.8 Qatar 8.4 Bahrain  8.3 Oman  8.2 Moro...
5 -  Regulation of credit,labour & business   <ul><li>Credit market regulations (banks, extension of credit, interest rate...
5 - Regulations of Credit, Labor, & business   Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score Bahrain 8.7 Lebanon  7.9 Oman  7.9 KSA  7....
Summary Ratings   Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score Bahrain 7.9 Kuwait  7.8 Lebanon 7.8 Oman  7.7 Morocco  6.6 Tunisia 6.4 ...
<ul><li>Thank You </li></ul>
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Weathering the Storm: The Arab World and the Global Economic Crisis

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Keynote by Dr. Salem Al Ismaily at the 4. Economic Freedom of the Arab World Conference in Marrakech, 13.-15. November 2009

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Transcript of "Weathering the Storm: The Arab World and the Global Economic Crisis"

  1. 1. <ul><li>Arab EF Annual Conference </li></ul><ul><li>Weathering the Storm </li></ul><ul><li>Marrakech, Morocco </li></ul><ul><li>November 13 - 15, 2009 </li></ul>
  2. 2. <ul><li>Consumer Spending </li></ul><ul><li>Government Spending </li></ul><ul><li>Export Development </li></ul><ul><li>Create demand and access to disposal </li></ul><ul><li>income </li></ul>
  3. 3. <ul><li>Global recession will not affect the Arab World as predicted. </li></ul><ul><li>Resource rich countries maintained high government spending. </li></ul><ul><li>Labor abundant countries will have delay effect due to low remittance, reduced FDI and reduced tourists inflow. </li></ul><ul><li>Countries less globally integrated are not to be severely affected. </li></ul>
  4. 4. <ul><li>GDP growth for year 2008 was 6% </li></ul><ul><li>Predicted growth for 2009 is 3.1 % with exception of Abu Dhabi, Oman and Qatar (over 5%) </li></ul><ul><li>Saudi Arabia increased government spending by 15% Oman 28% Qatar 25% and Abu Dhabi the same level as 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Kuwait stimulus pack was US$b5.2, Saudi US$b124.7 and UAE US$b32.7 </li></ul>
  5. 5. <ul><li>Morocco, Tunis, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt and Syria will suffer delayed effect from the decreased remittance, tourism income and FDI as investors confidence needs to be restored </li></ul><ul><li>Total amount of remittance was US$b33.7 in 2008. </li></ul><ul><li>Remittance for Morocco was 8%, Jordan 14%, Lebanon 20% of GDP </li></ul><ul><li>FDI will decrease by US$b11 </li></ul>
  6. 6. <ul><li>Syria will have US$b5 in government deficit </li></ul><ul><li>Egypt will suffer 35% reduction of Suez canal revenues </li></ul><ul><li>The biggiest challenge will be the creation of jobs as more people will be loosing their jobs while those entering the job market will increase </li></ul><ul><li>For all the Arab world it is imperative that the conditions conducive to doing business are created. </li></ul>
  7. 7. <ul><li>Gov. influence in economic or business decisions (incentives/subsidies, legislation, ownership and government expenditure) . </li></ul><ul><li>Size of the government as net producer and consumer ( percentage of GDP). </li></ul><ul><li>Number, scale and types of government. Enterprises. </li></ul><ul><li>Taxation. </li></ul>
  8. 8. 1- Size of Government Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score Lebanon 8.6 Egypt 7.2 Bahrain 6.6 Morocco 6.6 Jordan 6.6 Oman 5.5 KSA 5 Algeria 4.7
  9. 9. 2 - Legal Structure <ul><li>Impartiality of judiciary </li></ul><ul><li>Independence </li></ul><ul><li>Access to justice </li></ul><ul><li>Efficiency and speed of legal system </li></ul><ul><li>Protection of property rights </li></ul><ul><li>Enforcement of Contracts </li></ul>
  10. 10. 2- Legal Structure Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score KSA 8.1 Oman 8.0 Kuwait 7.8 Morocco 7.4 Libya 5.8 Syria 5.7 Algeria 5.7 Sudan 4.5
  11. 11. 3 - Access to Sound Money <ul><li>Power, responsibility and independence of the Central Bank. </li></ul><ul><li>Inflation rate. </li></ul><ul><li>Access to foreign currencies. </li></ul><ul><li>Local/foreign currency controls. </li></ul>
  12. 12. 3- Access to Sound Money Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score Lebanon 9.3 Oman 9.1 Djibouti 9.1 KSA 9.1 Morocco 6.8 Sudan 6 Libya 5.9 Comoros 4.8
  13. 13. 4 – Freedom to exchange with foreigners <ul><li>Taxes on international trade. </li></ul><ul><li>Regulatory trade barriers. </li></ul><ul><li>International capital market controls. </li></ul><ul><li>Access to foreign capital </li></ul><ul><li>Restrictions on foreign capital transactions </li></ul>
  14. 14. 4- Freedom to Exchange with foreigners Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score Yemen 8.8 Qatar 8.4 Bahrain 8.3 Oman 8.2 Morocco 5.4 Syria 5.4 Tunisia 5.0
  15. 15. 5 - Regulation of credit,labour & business <ul><li>Credit market regulations (banks, extension of credit, interest rate controls) </li></ul><ul><li>Labour market regulations (localization of labour, impact of minimum wage, hiring and firing practices) </li></ul><ul><li>Business regulations (price controls, barriers to enter new business, effect of bureaucracy on business efficiency/pro ductivity </li></ul>
  16. 16. 5 - Regulations of Credit, Labor, & business Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score Bahrain 8.7 Lebanon 7.9 Oman 7.9 KSA 7.9 Morocco 6.5 Egypt 5.8 Mauritania 5.6 Syria 5.5
  17. 17. Summary Ratings Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score Bahrain 7.9 Kuwait 7.8 Lebanon 7.8 Oman 7.7 Morocco 6.6 Tunisia 6.4 Mauritania 6.4 Syria 5.8 Algeria 5.7
  18. 18. <ul><li>Thank You </li></ul>
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