Weathering the Storm: The Arab World and the Global Economic Crisis

876 views

Published on

Keynote by Dr. Salem Al Ismaily at the 4. Economic Freedom of the Arab World Conference in Marrakech, 13.-15. November 2009

Published in: News & Politics, Travel
1 Comment
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
876
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
6
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
12
Comments
1
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Weathering the Storm: The Arab World and the Global Economic Crisis

  1. 1. <ul><li>Arab EF Annual Conference </li></ul><ul><li>Weathering the Storm </li></ul><ul><li>Marrakech, Morocco </li></ul><ul><li>November 13 - 15, 2009 </li></ul>
  2. 2. <ul><li>Consumer Spending </li></ul><ul><li>Government Spending </li></ul><ul><li>Export Development </li></ul><ul><li>Create demand and access to disposal </li></ul><ul><li>income </li></ul>
  3. 3. <ul><li>Global recession will not affect the Arab World as predicted. </li></ul><ul><li>Resource rich countries maintained high government spending. </li></ul><ul><li>Labor abundant countries will have delay effect due to low remittance, reduced FDI and reduced tourists inflow. </li></ul><ul><li>Countries less globally integrated are not to be severely affected. </li></ul>
  4. 4. <ul><li>GDP growth for year 2008 was 6% </li></ul><ul><li>Predicted growth for 2009 is 3.1 % with exception of Abu Dhabi, Oman and Qatar (over 5%) </li></ul><ul><li>Saudi Arabia increased government spending by 15% Oman 28% Qatar 25% and Abu Dhabi the same level as 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Kuwait stimulus pack was US$b5.2, Saudi US$b124.7 and UAE US$b32.7 </li></ul>
  5. 5. <ul><li>Morocco, Tunis, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt and Syria will suffer delayed effect from the decreased remittance, tourism income and FDI as investors confidence needs to be restored </li></ul><ul><li>Total amount of remittance was US$b33.7 in 2008. </li></ul><ul><li>Remittance for Morocco was 8%, Jordan 14%, Lebanon 20% of GDP </li></ul><ul><li>FDI will decrease by US$b11 </li></ul>
  6. 6. <ul><li>Syria will have US$b5 in government deficit </li></ul><ul><li>Egypt will suffer 35% reduction of Suez canal revenues </li></ul><ul><li>The biggiest challenge will be the creation of jobs as more people will be loosing their jobs while those entering the job market will increase </li></ul><ul><li>For all the Arab world it is imperative that the conditions conducive to doing business are created. </li></ul>
  7. 7. <ul><li>Gov. influence in economic or business decisions (incentives/subsidies, legislation, ownership and government expenditure) . </li></ul><ul><li>Size of the government as net producer and consumer ( percentage of GDP). </li></ul><ul><li>Number, scale and types of government. Enterprises. </li></ul><ul><li>Taxation. </li></ul>
  8. 8. 1- Size of Government Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score Lebanon 8.6 Egypt 7.2 Bahrain 6.6 Morocco 6.6 Jordan 6.6 Oman 5.5 KSA 5 Algeria 4.7
  9. 9. 2 - Legal Structure <ul><li>Impartiality of judiciary </li></ul><ul><li>Independence </li></ul><ul><li>Access to justice </li></ul><ul><li>Efficiency and speed of legal system </li></ul><ul><li>Protection of property rights </li></ul><ul><li>Enforcement of Contracts </li></ul>
  10. 10. 2- Legal Structure Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score KSA 8.1 Oman 8.0 Kuwait 7.8 Morocco 7.4 Libya 5.8 Syria 5.7 Algeria 5.7 Sudan 4.5
  11. 11. 3 - Access to Sound Money <ul><li>Power, responsibility and independence of the Central Bank. </li></ul><ul><li>Inflation rate. </li></ul><ul><li>Access to foreign currencies. </li></ul><ul><li>Local/foreign currency controls. </li></ul>
  12. 12. 3- Access to Sound Money Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score Lebanon 9.3 Oman 9.1 Djibouti 9.1 KSA 9.1 Morocco 6.8 Sudan 6 Libya 5.9 Comoros 4.8
  13. 13. 4 – Freedom to exchange with foreigners <ul><li>Taxes on international trade. </li></ul><ul><li>Regulatory trade barriers. </li></ul><ul><li>International capital market controls. </li></ul><ul><li>Access to foreign capital </li></ul><ul><li>Restrictions on foreign capital transactions </li></ul>
  14. 14. 4- Freedom to Exchange with foreigners Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score Yemen 8.8 Qatar 8.4 Bahrain 8.3 Oman 8.2 Morocco 5.4 Syria 5.4 Tunisia 5.0
  15. 15. 5 - Regulation of credit,labour & business <ul><li>Credit market regulations (banks, extension of credit, interest rate controls) </li></ul><ul><li>Labour market regulations (localization of labour, impact of minimum wage, hiring and firing practices) </li></ul><ul><li>Business regulations (price controls, barriers to enter new business, effect of bureaucracy on business efficiency/pro ductivity </li></ul>
  16. 16. 5 - Regulations of Credit, Labor, & business Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score Bahrain 8.7 Lebanon 7.9 Oman 7.9 KSA 7.9 Morocco 6.5 Egypt 5.8 Mauritania 5.6 Syria 5.5
  17. 17. Summary Ratings Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score Bahrain 7.9 Kuwait 7.8 Lebanon 7.8 Oman 7.7 Morocco 6.6 Tunisia 6.4 Mauritania 6.4 Syria 5.8 Algeria 5.7
  18. 18. <ul><li>Thank You </li></ul>

×