Weathering the Storm: The Arab World and the Global Economic Crisis

Arab EF Annual Conference
Weathering the Storm
Marrakech, Morocco
November 13 - 15, 2009

Consumer Spending
Government Spending
Export Development
Create demand and access to disposal
income

Global recession will not affect the Arab World as predicted.
Resource rich countries maintained high government spending.
Labor abundant countries will have delay effect due to low remittance, reduced FDI and reduced tourists inflow.
Countries less globally integrated are not to be severely affected.

GDP growth for year 2008 was 6%
Predicted growth for 2009 is 3.1 % with exception of Abu Dhabi, Oman and Qatar (over 5%)
Saudi Arabia increased government spending by 15% Oman 28% Qatar 25% and Abu Dhabi the same level as 2008
Kuwait stimulus pack was US$b5.2, Saudi US$b124.7 and UAE US$b32.7

Morocco, Tunis, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt and Syria will suffer delayed effect from the decreased remittance, tourism income and FDI as investors confidence needs to be restored
Total amount of remittance was US$b33.7 in 2008.
Remittance for Morocco was 8%, Jordan 14%, Lebanon 20% of GDP
FDI will decrease by US$b11

Syria will have US$b5 in government deficit
Egypt will suffer 35% reduction of Suez canal revenues
The biggiest challenge will be the creation of jobs as more people will be loosing their jobs while those entering the job market will increase
For all the Arab world it is imperative that the conditions conducive to doing business are created.

Gov. influence in economic or business decisions (incentives/subsidies, legislation, ownership and government expenditure) .
Size of the government as net producer and consumer ( percentage of GDP).
Number, scale and types of government. Enterprises.
Taxation.

1- Size of Government Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score Lebanon 8.6 Egypt 7.2 Bahrain 6.6 Morocco 6.6 Jordan 6.6 Oman 5.5 KSA 5 Algeria 4.7

2 - Legal Structure
Impartiality of judiciary
Independence
Access to justice
Efficiency and speed of legal system
Protection of property rights
Enforcement of Contracts

2- Legal Structure Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score KSA 8.1 Oman 8.0 Kuwait 7.8 Morocco 7.4 Libya 5.8 Syria 5.7 Algeria 5.7 Sudan 4.5

3 - Access to Sound Money
Power, responsibility and independence of the Central Bank.
Inflation rate.
Access to foreign currencies.
Local/foreign currency controls.

3- Access to Sound Money Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score Lebanon 9.3 Oman 9.1 Djibouti 9.1 KSA 9.1 Morocco 6.8 Sudan 6 Libya 5.9 Comoros 4.8

4 – Freedom to exchange with foreigners
Taxes on international trade.
Regulatory trade barriers.
International capital market controls.
Access to foreign capital
Restrictions on foreign capital transactions

4- Freedom to Exchange with foreigners Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score Yemen 8.8 Qatar 8.4 Bahrain 8.3 Oman 8.2 Morocco 5.4 Syria 5.4 Tunisia 5.0

5 - Regulation of credit,labour & business
Credit market regulations (banks, extension of credit, interest rate controls)
Labour market regulations (localization of labour, impact of minimum wage, hiring and firing practices)
Business regulations (price controls, barriers to enter new business, effect of bureaucracy on business efficiency/pro ductivity

5 - Regulations of Credit, Labor, & business Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score Bahrain 8.7 Lebanon 7.9 Oman 7.9 KSA 7.9 Morocco 6.5 Egypt 5.8 Mauritania 5.6 Syria 5.5

Summary Ratings Source: IRF - 2009 Country Score Bahrain 7.9 Kuwait 7.8 Lebanon 7.8 Oman 7.7 Morocco 6.6 Tunisia 6.4 Mauritania 6.4 Syria 5.8 Algeria 5.7

Thank You

Weathering the Storm: The Arab World and the Global Economic Crisis

by Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Liberty (FNF)

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Usage Rights

1 Embed 4

Statistics

Weathering the Storm: The Arab World and the Global Economic Crisis Presentation Transcript