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Three day live course focused on reliability engineering for maintenance programs. Introductory material and discussion ranging from basic tools and techniques for data analysis to considerations when building or improving a program.

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- 1. Reliability Engineering Fred Schenkelberg fms@fmsreliability.com
- 2. FAULT TREES & BLOCK DIAGRAMS Day 2 Session 1
- 3. Objectives • Recognize vulnerabilities in a system and reduce risk • Fault Tree Analysis and Block Diagrams • Using simulation to improve decision making • Using simulation options (policies, pools & resources) • Combining life distributions with life stress relationships
- 4. Discovery of Risks • What could go wrong? • What has gone wrong? • Analysis • Testing
- 5. Analysis • FMEA • What if • Modeling • Expert opinion
- 6. Hazard Analysis • Plot severity and occurrence • Local policy on priorities Likelihood of Occurrence Severity
- 7. Identification in not enough • Experiments • Design • Constrain • Mitigate
- 8. Discussion & Questions
- 9. Fault Tree Analysis Deductive analysis process
- 10. FTA Construction 1. Define the fault condition, and write down the top level failure. 2. Using technical information and professional judgments, determine the possible reasons for the failure to occur. 3. Continue to break down each element with additional gates to lower levels. 4. Finalize and review the complete diagram. The chain can only be terminated in a basic fault: human, hardware or software. 5. If possible, evaluate the probability of occurrence for each of the lowest level elements and calculate the statistical probabilities from the bottom up. What is Fault Tree Analysis, by Simha Pilot, Quality Progress, March 2002
- 11. Reliability Block Diagram • Reliability Block Diagrams (RBDs) are graphical representations of the components of the system and how they are reliability-wise related --Reliasoft.com
- 12. RBD Construction • Series • Parallel A B A B
- 13. Discussion & Questions
- 14. Simulation • Build RBD • Run simulation – 100 days – 100 cycles – What if analysis
- 15. Blocksim Simulation • An airline does annual inspections of vests • Replace faulty vests only • Vests fail with Weibull distribution – beta 2.55 and eta 6.89 years • Should we change the inspection interval?
- 16. Blocksim Simulation
- 17. Discussion & Questions
- 18. Policies • Rules to govern repair and maintenance tasks • Inspections • Crews • PM and CM tasks
- 19. Block Diagram Which relays are most important availability wise?
- 20. Importance Plot
- 21. Spares planning
- 22. Discussion & Questions
- 23. Monty Carlo Methods • Failure mechanism models • Empirical models • Use stress and environment models
- 24. Monte Carlo 1. Define a domain of possible inputs. 2. Generate inputs randomly from a probability distribution over domain. 3. Perform a deterministic computation on the inputs. 4. Aggregate the results. Area of Circle = π / 4 Area of Square
- 25. Example • 30 known failure mechanisms • Distribution of use and environmental stresses • Models to predict failures
- 26. Outputs Time ProbabilityofFailure
- 27. Discussion & Questions
- 28. Summary • Recognize vulnerabilities in a system and reduce risk • Fault Tree Analysis and Block Diagrams • Using simulation to improve decision making • Using simulation options (policies, pools & resources) • Combining life distributions with life stress relationships Fault Trees & Block Diagrams

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