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Introduction to
Reliability Management
Fred Schenkelberg
Reliability Consultant
fms@fmsreliability.com
www.fmsreliability....
What have you done
for me lately?
What is your value??
What is your scope?
Or entire industry?
Goals
Estimates
PredictionsTesting
Field
Returns
Goals and Feedback
Specifications
Responses
Score!
Goal!
Back of
the Net!
How do you talk
about reliability?
As good as or better ….
Make it “reliable”
Do your best.
5 year life
None should ever fail.
www.nomtbf.com
How do those around you talk about reliability?
Four elements
• Function
– Primary
– Side of box
– performance
• Probability
– % surviving
– Chance of surviving
– No dist...
Practice
• What is the
function?
Practice
• What is the
environment?
Coffee mug
Practice
• What is the
probability and
duration?
Practice
• What is another
probability and
duration?
Brew coffee daily in US home environment
99% reliability over 1 year warranty period and
95% reliability over useful life ...
System goal of
90% Reliability
in 2 years.
Sys
Sub 1 Sub 2 Sub 3 Sub 4 Sub 5
R t( )= SubiÕ
Coffee
Machine
Reservoir Heater Plumbing Controls Carafe
97%
Home Coffee Machine
95% over 5 years
98% 99% 99% 98%
R t( )= ...
Sys
Sub 1 Sub 2 Sub 3
Sub 3.1
Sub 3.2
Sub 4 Sub 5
Coffee
Machine
Reservoir Heater Plumbing Controls Carafe
97%
Home Coffee Machine
95% over 5 years
98% 99% 99% 98%
99% 99% ...
Feedback
• Did you do well?
• Are you on track?
• Corrections?
Concept Design Development Manufacturing
Field
Use
FRACAS
Multiple systems
Overbearing Enforcement
Rewards for numbers
Typical early life failures
Product does not meet
design specifications
Material or component
characterization
Process cha...
Prediction of ELFs
Not commonly possibly for unknown variation
Design in some margin
Derating
Safety factor
Determine marg...
Hit by a big hammer
Some stress is too large to accommodate
Lightening
Vehicle accident
Meteor strike
Hurricane
Possibly f...
Prediction of overstress
Not commonly possibly
Design errors
Environment
Unexpected use
When significant adverse consequen...
Wear out and related
Everything fails –
eventually
Understand failure
mechanisms and
environment
It is a race to cause
the...
Call Centers
First contact with failure
What do you collect?
that is actionable?
What is the main focus?
VALUE
Return on Investment
• Cost or Investment
What do you spend to
accomplish the task?
• Return or Benefit
What you realize a...
Given a FET that costs 10
cents, a new procurement
engineer finds a new FET
vendor that only charges 5
cents.
Switch?
What...
Given a FET that costs 10
cents, a new procurement
engineer finds a new FET
vendor that only charges 5
cents.
$0.05 FET ha...
Total Cost of $0.10 FET
#Failed = (1-0.987) 1000 units =
13.25
Cost of Repairs = 250*13 = $3250
Total Cost = $3250+0.10*10...
FET
Cost
Repair
Cost
Total
Cost
$0.10 $3250
75,000 hrs
$3350
$0.05 $5000
50,000 hrs
$5050
$0.50 $2500
100,000hrs
$3000
How else can we find value?
Summary
• Set goals
• Break goals down
• Create feedback
• Create value
Introduction to
Reliability Management
Fred Schenkelberg
Reliability Consultant
fms@fmsreliability.com
www.fmsreliability....
Intro to reliability management
Intro to reliability management
Intro to reliability management
Intro to reliability management
Intro to reliability management
Intro to reliability management
Intro to reliability management
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Intro to reliability management

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Slides for my presentation in the Hobbs Engineering webinar program

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  • The slides, the handout and more of my presentations and papers are at

    http://www.fmsreliability.com/publishing/

    cheers,

    Fred
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  • Woman with clock – what have you done for me lately?Reviews, team goals, organziation or product performance,
  • Man in front of bankWhat is your value? – in other words show me the money.
  • Dog on the beachWhat are we managing – the immediate problem or product?
  • Forddearborn plant – or are we running the entire company?By Detroit Publishing Co. [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons
  • Add circling arrows – with goals and feedbackAre we there yet?
  • Man looking puzzled at screenReliability goals – 5 years? Long life? Some other metric?Maybe do a poll here or ask for input to chat window. What do you use for
  • No MTBF banner and link to that pageOr noMTBF coffee mug image
  • Picture of Reliable moversHow do those around you think of reliability?
  • Picture of germanshepard
  • Four colored boxes? Four elements of reliability definition
  • Image of coffee potEnglish: The inside of a en:Senseo coffee pod machine.1) Inlet from reservoir, with sieve 2) Piston pump 3) Connection from pump to heating chamber 4) Electric connector for boiling device/heating chamber 5) Heating chamber 6) Three-port valve (most frequent failure point) 7) Air vent/overpressure relief into reservoir 8) Pipe towards scalding chamber (pod holder) 9) Reed switch for minimum level control of reservoirThe electronics component, based on a PIC microcontroller, is situated below the cup stand.Deutsch:InnenansichteinerSenseo-Kaffeepad-Maschine.1) Zulaufvom Tank mitSieb 2) Kolbenpumpe 3) VerbindungPumpe - Sieder/Erhitzungskammer 4) HeizungsanschlussSieder/Erhitzungskammer 5) Sieder/Erhitzungskammer 6) Dreiwegeventil (und Hauptausfallursache der Maschinen) 7) Entlüftung/Überdruckausgang in den Tank 8) LeitungzurBrühkammer (Padhalter) 9) ReedschalterfürMindeststandskontrolleWassertankDie Elektronik auf Basis eines PIC-Microcontrollers befindetsichunterhalb der Tassenfläche. Date 14 January 2011 Source Own work Author Cschirp Permission(Reusing this file) This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Germany license. You are free:to share – to copy, distribute and transmit the workto remix – to adapt the workUnder the following conditions:attribution – You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author or licensor (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work).share alike – If you alter, transform, or build upon this work, you may distribute the resulting work only under the same or similar license to this one.
  • Image of coffee potDuring the lull in the Battle for Henderson Field, October, 1942, a Marine machine gunner takes a break for coffee, with his sub-machine gun on his knee and his .30-caliber light machine gun in position.Department of Defense (USMC) Photo 13628 http://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USMC/USMC-C-Guadalcanal/index.htmlLicensing:[edit]This work is in the public domain in the United States because it is a work prepared by an officer or employee of the United States Government as part of that person’s official duties under the terms of Title 17, Chapter 1, Section 105 of the US Code. See Copyright.Note: This only applies to original works of the Federal Government and not to the work of any individual U.S. state, territory, commonwealth, county, municipality, or any other subdivision. This template also does not apply to postage stamp designs published by the United States Postal Service since 1978. (See 206.02(b) of Compendium II: Copyright Office Practices). It also does not apply to certain US coins; see The US Mint Terms of Use.This file has been identified as being free of known restrictions under copyright law, including all related and neighboring rights.
  • Image of coffee potEnglish: Hand-pull espresso machine, Vashon Island Coffee Roasterie, Vashon Island, Washington. Date 9 March 2013 Source Photo by Joe Mabel Author Joe Mabel Permission(Reusing this file) Joe Mabel, the copyright holder of this work, hereby publishes it under the following license: This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license. Attribution: Joe Mabel You are free:to share – to copy, distribute and transmit the workto remix – to adapt the workUnder the following conditions:attribution – You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author or licensor (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work).share alike – If you alter, transform, or build upon this work, you may distribute the resulting work only under the same or similar license to this one.
  • Image of coffee pot Deutsch: Deutschland, Bonn, PoppelsdorferAllee/Am PoppelsdorferWeiher: Kaffeerad -> EinLastendreirad, versehenmiteinemprofessionellen WEGA-Kaffeevollautomaten.English: Germany, Bonn, PoppelsdorferAllee/Am PoppelsdorferWeiher: Kaffeerad ("coffee bike") -> A three-wheeler, equipped with a professional WEGA-coffee machine Date 15 March 2012 Source Own work Author Sir James Permission(Reusing this file) If you use one of my works outside of the Wikimedia projects, I would be very glad to get a note from you. Thanks in advance.Sir James (author/photographer)Deutsch | English | Español | Français | Italiano | Македонски | Português | Romaneste | Српски / Srpski Other versions Object location 50° 43′ 34.40″ N, 7° 5′ 38.15″ E View this and other nearby images on: Google Maps - Google Earth - OpenStreetMap - Proximityrama (Info) I, the copyright holder of this work, hereby publish it under the following license:This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license. You are free:to share – to copy, distribute and transmit the workto remix – to adapt the workUnder the following conditions:attribution – You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author or licensor (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work).
  • Picture of up of coffee with steam coming upBrew coffee daily in US home environment 99% reliability over 1 year warranty period and 95% reliability over useful life of 5 years.
  • ApportionmentStory of all groups in design team using system goal and achieving that goal for their subsystem.59% reliability if each of five systems achieve goal of 90% R. 0.9 ^ 5 = 0.59
  • Basic org chart view of RBD – simple series system
  • Same basic RBD with numbers and math worked out below
  • Image of IC chip circuit element – how far down to go with apportionment?What is the right level? – ask audience for input.Maybe a poll – subsystem, key components, entire bom, atomic level?
  • How to get started? Basic RBD again – with computer elements listed
  • Same RBD with goals in straight line estimate approachKeyboard guy is happy, power supply guy is not? Why?What raised to 5th power equals 0.95? 0.99So, what can be done? What directions should this team take?
  • Image of balance scalesInclude all four elements of goalInclude details to vendors – and hold them to it.For each sub systems, etc.
  • Feedback Mechanisms Story of group with no feedback what so everImage of three monkeys?
  • Image of man listening to phone
  • Shorter feedback is betterImage of product development cycle – and feedback pointsFocus on key decision points
  • Shorter feedback is betterImage of product development cycle – and feedback pointsFocus on key decision points
  • FRACAS – team with 6 fracas systems, team with overbearing Quality group – shawdow system, team with reward to most bugs checked off – etc.Español: "Teléfono de cordel".Ilustracionespertenecientes al libro :El mundo físico : gravedad, gravitación, luz, calor, electricidad, magnetismo, etc. / A. Guillemin. - Barcelona Montaner y Simón, 1882 Date 21 October 2009, 11:27 Source 1004158Uploaded by clusternote AuthorBiblioteca de la Facultad de Derecho y Ciencias del Trabajo Universidad de Sevilla
  • Rolling stones t shirt – new employee and separating circuit boards by hand
  • Old diesel train buffer’s between cars
  • Story of one organization with 31 failure mechanisms and model used for decision making
  • Field data considerationsWhat do you need so it is actionable? What do most call centers and field service folks focus on?
  • Man in front of bankWhat is your value? – in other words show me the money.Introduction to value
  • Story of procurement person and 0.05 reduction verse 5x increase in FET price?What do we need to make this determination?Image of dude asking question
  • Story of procurement person and 0.05 reduction verse 5x increase in FET price?What do we need to make this determination?Get reliability and cost per failure informationImage of dude asking talking on phone
  • Story of procurement person and 0.05 reduction verse 5x increase in FET price?What do we need to make this determination?Show calculation – and should go to more expensive FETImage of dude asking talking on happy
  • Story of procurement person and 0.05 reduction verse 5x increase in FET price?What do we need to make this determination?Show calculation – and should go to more expensive FETImage of dude asking talking on happy
  • Rainbow and pot of gold – imageHow else can we find value?Description English: A rainbow taken in the early morning on Border Drive, Currumbin Waters, Gold Coast Australia Date30 May 2013, 07:46:01 Source OwnworkAuthor Nikko73 Licensing[edit]I, thecopyrightholder of thiswork, herebypublish it underthefollowinglicense:This file is licensedundertheCreative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license. You are free:toshare – tocopy, distributeandtransmittheworktoremix – toadapttheworkUnder thefollowingconditions:attribution – Youmustattributethework in themannerspecifiedbytheauthororlicensor (but not in anywaythatsuggeststhattheyendorseyouoryouruse of thework).sharealike – Ifyoualter, transform, orbuilduponthiswork, youmaydistributetheresultingworkonlyunderthesameorsimilarlicensetothisone.
  • Portion of checklist on how to find value.Along with link to download.
  • Man in front of bankWrap up – value of this talk?What did you learn and what are you going to do different?What is your value? – in other words show me the money.
  • SummaryImage of coffee potworld's largest coffee pot, Selb (Bavaria) Date March 2005 Source fotographed by Stern Author Stern
  • Transcript of "Intro to reliability management"

    1. 1. Introduction to Reliability Management Fred Schenkelberg Reliability Consultant fms@fmsreliability.com www.fmsreliability.com (408) 710-8248
    2. 2. What have you done for me lately?
    3. 3. What is your value??
    4. 4. What is your scope?
    5. 5. Or entire industry?
    6. 6. Goals Estimates PredictionsTesting Field Returns Goals and Feedback Specifications Responses
    7. 7. Score! Goal! Back of the Net!
    8. 8. How do you talk about reliability?
    9. 9. As good as or better …. Make it “reliable” Do your best. 5 year life None should ever fail.
    10. 10. www.nomtbf.com
    11. 11. How do those around you talk about reliability?
    12. 12. Four elements • Function – Primary – Side of box – performance • Probability – % surviving – Chance of surviving – No distribution • Environment – Weather – Stresses – Use profiles • Duration – Early Life – Warranty period – Useful Life
    13. 13. Practice • What is the function?
    14. 14. Practice • What is the environment? Coffee mug
    15. 15. Practice • What is the probability and duration?
    16. 16. Practice • What is another probability and duration?
    17. 17. Brew coffee daily in US home environment 99% reliability over 1 year warranty period and 95% reliability over useful life of 5 years.
    18. 18. System goal of 90% Reliability in 2 years.
    19. 19. Sys Sub 1 Sub 2 Sub 3 Sub 4 Sub 5 R t( )= SubiÕ
    20. 20. Coffee Machine Reservoir Heater Plumbing Controls Carafe 97% Home Coffee Machine 95% over 5 years 98% 99% 99% 98% R t( )= 0.97 ´ 0.98 ´ 0.99 ´ 0.99 ´ 0.98 = 0.91
    21. 21. Sys Sub 1 Sub 2 Sub 3 Sub 3.1 Sub 3.2 Sub 4 Sub 5
    22. 22. Coffee Machine Reservoir Heater Plumbing Controls Carafe 97% Home Coffee Machine 95% over 5 years 98% 99% 99% 98% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99% Goals – straight line method
    23. 23. Feedback • Did you do well? • Are you on track? • Corrections?
    24. 24. Concept Design Development Manufacturing Field Use
    25. 25. FRACAS Multiple systems Overbearing Enforcement Rewards for numbers
    26. 26. Typical early life failures Product does not meet design specifications Material or component characterization Process characterization Assembly characterization Process control – focus on what’s
    27. 27. Prediction of ELFs Not commonly possibly for unknown variation Design in some margin Derating Safety factor Determine margin If variation is know, determine probability of failures – still difficult to know when though.
    28. 28. Hit by a big hammer Some stress is too large to accommodate Lightening Vehicle accident Meteor strike Hurricane Possibly foreseen or expected, and not economical to design the ability to withstand
    29. 29. Prediction of overstress Not commonly possibly Design errors Environment Unexpected use When significant adverse consequence may occur explore mitigation or fail safe approaches
    30. 30. Wear out and related Everything fails – eventually Understand failure mechanisms and environment It is a race to cause the failure
    31. 31. Call Centers First contact with failure What do you collect? that is actionable? What is the main focus?
    32. 32. VALUE
    33. 33. Return on Investment • Cost or Investment What do you spend to accomplish the task? • Return or Benefit What you realize as a result? Common to expect at least a 10 to 1 ROI
    34. 34. Given a FET that costs 10 cents, a new procurement engineer finds a new FET vendor that only charges 5 cents. Switch? What else to consider?
    35. 35. Given a FET that costs 10 cents, a new procurement engineer finds a new FET vendor that only charges 5 cents. $0.05 FET has MTBF of 50,000 hours $0.10 FET has MTBF of 75,000 hours 1000 hours of operation Shipping 1000 units Cost to repair unit $250
    36. 36. Total Cost of $0.10 FET #Failed = (1-0.987) 1000 units = 13.25 Cost of Repairs = 250*13 = $3250 Total Cost = $3250+0.10*1000 = $3350 987.01000 000,75 1000 10.0 eR
    37. 37. FET Cost Repair Cost Total Cost $0.10 $3250 75,000 hrs $3350 $0.05 $5000 50,000 hrs $5050 $0.50 $2500 100,000hrs $3000
    38. 38. How else can we find value?
    39. 39. Summary • Set goals • Break goals down • Create feedback • Create value
    40. 40. Introduction to Reliability Management Fred Schenkelberg Reliability Consultant fms@fmsreliability.com www.fmsreliability.com (408) 710-8248
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