Climate Change And Tdm Strategies Presentation
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Presented for NYMTC at the Metro Mobility Network meeting on June 8th, 2008.

Presented for NYMTC at the Metro Mobility Network meeting on June 8th, 2008.

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Climate Change And Tdm Strategies Presentation Presentation Transcript

  • 1. TDM Strategies & Climate Change NYMTC – Metro Mobility Network Meeting June 10, 2008 New York, New York Michael Grant, Principal Frank T. Mongioi, Jr., Senior Associate icfi.com © 2006 ICF International. All rights reserved.
  • 2. Introduction – State Climate Action Plans ■ Why state level approach is important ■ Can have large impacts – 34 of 75 largest GHG sources in the world are U.S. states ■ States are testing grounds for emerging policy ■ State actions can build political support at federal level 2 icfi.com
  • 3. GHGs and Transportation Sector U.S. GHG Emissions by Economic Sector, 1990- 2006 (with Electricity distributed to End-Use Sectors) 2,500 ■ After industry, Industrial transportation is leading 2,000 Transportation source of U.S. GHG 1,500 Tg CO2 Eq. Residential (purple) emissions Commercial (blue) 1,000 ■ Transportation sector Agriculture 500 accounts for 28% of GHGs nationally – much 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 more in some states ■ Transportation is among Growth in GHG Emissions, 1990-2006 (Tg CO2 Eq.) 600 the fastest growing 500 sources of GHG 400 +427.3 emissions 300 235.4 258.1 200 100 27. Industry 0 9 Transportation Residential Commercial Agriculture -100 -71.2 3 icfi.com
  • 4. Estimated Transportation Share of Total GHG Emissions by State, 2010 200 180 Million Metric Tons CO2 Equivalent 160 34% 140 23% 120 23% 100 39% 80 47% 23% 60 40 22% 20 43% 0 AZ CO MN MT NC NM VT WA All other sectors Transportation 4 icfi.com
  • 5. U.S. Transportation GHG Emissions by Source, 2006 Other Non-Road 7% Pipelines Ships and Boats Rail Lubricants Aircraft Other Aircraft 9% Commercial Buses Aircraft 7% Passenger Cars Heavy-duty Vehicles 34% Light-duty Vehicles 21% Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks 63% 20% Light-Duty Trucks 28% Motorcycles 5 icfi.com
  • 6. State Climate Actions Plans ■ Plans propose specific policies and programs for consideration by the state legislature or implementation by state agency ■ Stakeholder groups convened to develop policies aimed at meeting state emission goals 36 states have developed or are developing a climate plan 6 icfi.com
  • 7. Role of Stakeholder Groups ■ Transportation is one of several key areas for policy development 7 icfi.com
  • 8. Step-Wise Plan Process ■ 1: Develop initial statewide GHG inventories and projections ■ 2: Draft a catalog of possible GHG policy options ■ 3: Identify initial draft priority policy options for evaluation ■ 4: Develop proposals for draft policy option design ■ 5: Quantify potential GHG reduction and cost of draft policy options ■ 6: Define implementation mechanisms, related policies and programs, and feasibility issues ■ 7: Iterate to final consensus on draft policy options through voting by plenary group ■ 8: Finalize recommendations and report 8 icfi.com
  • 9. Types of Strategies Included in Plans ■ GHG emissions standards ■ Pay-as-you drive for LDVs insurance ■ Smart growth measures ■ Non-road measures ■ Clean car purchase ■ Emissions reduction incentives measures for diesel vehicles ■ Promotion of transit ■ HDV anti-idling measures ■ Alternative fuels 9 icfi.com
  • 10. Transportation Demand Management Strategies • Improving multi-modal options, including transit • Pricing strategies for fuel and driving • Pricing strategies for parking, and • Public education and outreach Bus Photo Bus Photo 10 icfi.com
  • 11. Effective TDM Strategies – Estimated by States • Provision/promotion of multiple modes, including transit • Pay as You Drive Insurance (PAYD) • Commuter Benefits 11 icfi.com
  • 12. Frequency of Strategy Inclusion 12 icfi.com
  • 13. Strategy Effectiveness (examples) 13 icfi.com
  • 14. Looking Ahead • At least nine other states are developing climate action plans • States adopting selected policy recommendations ■ WA per-capita VMT reduction goals ■ AZ clean car GHG standards • As states and metropolitan areas gain experience, policies and quantification methods will continue to be refined and TDM may see a growing role in Climate Action Plans. 14 icfi.com
  • 15. Integrating Climate Change into Metropolitan Transportation Planning • Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) Long-range plan for regional transportation system 20+ year planning horizon Fiscally constrained Updated at least every 4 years in air quality nonattainment & maintenance areas, 5 years elsewhere • Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) are beginning to: ■ Incorporate goals and objectives that relate to climate change ■ Incorporate GHG reduction strategies ■ Examine potential impacts of and adaptation to climate change The Metropolitan Transportation Planning Process: Key Issues A Briefing Notebook for Transportation Decisionmakers, Officials, and Staff FHWA and FTA 15 icfi.com
  • 16. Climate Change Potentially Impacts Transportation Infrastructure Current Sea Level 1.5 Meter Rise Naval Facilities 1. Charts do not include periodic hurricane storm surge, e.g., Isabel 10+ feet. 2. Reference: DOT The Potential Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Transportation Infrastructure, Federal Research Partnership Workshop, October 1-2, 2002, plus ICF follow-on East Coast study 16 icfi.com
  • 17. Integrating Climate Change in Metropolitan Transportation Plans Climate Change Mitigation Climate Change Adaptation Energy Conservation/ in: in: Alt. Fuels in: Trends and Challenges Trends and Challenges Trends and Challenges Performance Measures Performance Measures Performance Measures Policies and Strategies Policies and Strategies Policies and Strategies Vision and Goals Vision and Goals Vision and Goals Size MPO Region Eugene, OR S x x x x Missoula, MT S Santa Fe, NM S Albany, NY M x Grand Rapids, MI M x x x Portland, OR M x x x x x x x Salt Lake City M x Baltimore L x x x Chicago L x x Denver L x x x x Houston -Galveston L x x x Philadelphia L Sacramento L x x x x San Diego L x x x x x x San Francisco L x x x Seattle L Southern California L x x x x Washington DC L 17 icfi.com
  • 18. Example: Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC), San Francisco Bay Area • Developing Transportation 2035 Plan • Includes specific measurable objectives (considered “stretch” targets) for each of its key principles – one relates to climate change • Analyzing scenarios to assess which options meet the target From: MTC Memorandum to Planning Committee, January 2008. 18 icfi.com
  • 19. Looking Ahead • Potential increase in attention to TDM due to convergence of factors, of which climate change is one • Related social/economic factors motivating TDM interest – High gas prices, energy security – Increased traffic congestion – Funding limitations – Highway Trust Fund running out… – Public health concerns / obesity – Increased emphasis on efficient system management & operations (pricing, etc.) – Quality of life issues / sustainability 19 icfi.com
  • 20. Thank you! Michael Grant Frank Mongioi 703-218-2692 732-218-5040 mgrant@icfi.com fmongioi@icfi.com 20 icfi.com