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Lecture on Flood Damage Assessment
 

Lecture on Flood Damage Assessment

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    Lecture on Flood Damage Assessment Lecture on Flood Damage Assessment Presentation Transcript

    • FLOODRESILIENCE FLOOD DAMAGE ANALYSIS William Veerbeek, Flood Resilience Group, Unesco-IHE, Delft, Netherlands URBAN FLOOD MANAGEMENT DORDRECHT HSRR02: FLOOD DAMAGE ASSESSMENT ROTTERDAM-RIJNMOND FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 1
    • FLOODRESILIENCE UFM DORDRECHT: Knowledge development by DESIGN WORK PACKAGES: STAKEHOLDERS: -Risk and Vulnerability assessment -Governement (federal, regional, local) -Resilient Planning and Building -Research Institutes -Urban Design -Water-board -Communication and Emergency Response -Housing corporation -Policy and Governance -Developers, Building industry -Insurance Companies -Citizens Vulnerability assessment Damage assessment Flood modelling, Vulnerability assessment Flood proofing technologies FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Guidelines FLOOD RESILIENT DESIGN Communication FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 2
    • FLOODRESILIENCE UFM DORDRECHT: LEARNING by DOING, Iterative Process (Slow Prototyping) PRACTISE: TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF INFORMATION EXCHANGE Vulnerability assessment Damage assessment Flood modelling, Vulnerability assessment Flood proofing technologies DESIGN PROTOTYPES Communication Guidelines FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 3
    • FLOODRESILIENCE INTERGRATED UFM: Incorporate flood impact reduction into the city YET: CITIES ARE COMPLEX AND HIGHLY DIFFERENTIATED NEED FOR A HIGHLY EXPRESSIVE VULNERABILITY/IMPACT MODEL 1. WHAT? Need for broad set of impact evaluation tools, climate scenarios 2. WHERE? Need for detailled impact assessment 3. WHEN? Need for incorporation of renewal strategies FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 4
    • FLOODRESILIENCE FLOOD DAMAGE ASSESSMENT TERMINOLOGY • Tangible damages: expressed in money (direct, indirect) • Intangible damages: Cannot be expressed in money (culture, health, etc.) • Direct damages: cleaning, repair, replacement, etc. • Indirect damages: business interruption, ‘ripple effects’, etc. FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 5
    • FLOODRESILIENCE FLOOD DAMAGE ASSESSMENT TERMINOLOGY • Cummulative frequency: find frequency of occurence of some value (e.g. dis- charge, water stage)-> from historical records • Return period: period in which the event occurs • Exceedance probability = return period-1 -> Probability that a given value (e.g. discharge, water stage) is exceeded COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS: • A 100 year flood doesn’t happen every 100 years • A 10000 year flood is based on flood records FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 6
    • FLOODRESILIENCE FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT: Only from the ‘driver’ perspective 2D FLOOD SIMULATIONS: 4000-1 EP High resolution (max 10x10m grid), including sewer Inundation, Velocity for a multitude of design floods events limited inundation depth (<1m) limited flow velocities (<0.75m3/s) FLOOD RISK FOCUSSED ON FLOOD EXTENT AND INUNDATION DEPTH -Little knowledge about impact assessment FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 7
    • FLOODRESILIENCE CALCULATING DAMAGE FOR INDIVIDUAL FEATURES 1. STAGE-DAMAGE FUNCTION • Relates inundation depth to damage level • Differs per feature type, region • Can be composed of different damage contributors • Can be multi-modal (inundation depth, velocity, duration) 40000 35000 30000 25000 damage [€] 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 0 0,3 0,6 0,9 1,2 1,5 1,8 2,1 2,4 2,9 water stage [m] Cleaning Floors & Walls Doors Kitchen Installation FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Stage damage curve for detached housing FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 8
    • FLOODRESILIENCE CALCULATING DAMAGE FOR INDIVIDUAL FEATURES 2. 2D OR 1D-2D FLOOD SIMULATION • Generates maximum inundation depth per grid-cell • Apply different flood scenarios (i.e. EPs associated to a water stage) FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Flood extent for different EPs FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 9
    • FLOODRESILIENCE CALCULATING DAMAGE FOR INDIVIDUAL FEATURES 3. APPLICATION OF STAGE-DAMAGE FUNCTION AND 2D INUNDATION MAP • Classification of individual features .... Classify feature 0,3 0,6 0,9 1,2 1,5 1,8 2,1 0,3 0,6 0,9 1,2 1,5 1,8 2,1 0,3 0,6 0,9 1,2 1,5 1,8 2,1 water stage [m] water stage [m] water stage [m] H1 H2 Hn Attributes feature Fi (e.g. house) • type • area • location • etc. Flood characteristics at location (Xi, Yi) • depth • velocity • duration • etc. FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 10
    • FLOODRESILIENCE CALCULATING DAMAGE FOR INDIVIDUAL FEATURES 4. RESULTING AGGREGATE DAMAGE LEVELS • Water stage - Expected damage 180 160 5.8845 y = 4E-08x 140 expected Damage [m€] 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 425 450 water stage [cm +NAP] • Return periods - Expected damage Current 40 35 30 expected Damage [m€] 25 20 15 10 5 0 10 100 1000 10000 FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP return period [Y] Current FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 11
    • FLOODRESILIENCE STAGE-DAMAGE CURVES: ATTRIBUTES MEAN ANNUAL DAMAGE (MAD) • Average contribution of each damage level per year d i 1  d i Pmax I MAD   D( p)d p   P0 i 1 2  pi 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 Damage [x mln € ] 90 80 70 MAD 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 20000 10000 4000 2000 1000 500 250 100 50 25 10 Exceedance probability -1 [-](Water stage [m +NAP]) 2100 Total FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 12
    • FLOODRESILIENCE STAGE-DAMAGE CURVES: ATTRIBUTES SENSITIVITY • Maximum value for the derative of the stage-damage curve. d d  SENSITIVITY  max i 1 i 1   d max  P P   i 1 i 1  160 150 SENSITIVITY 140 130 120 110 100 Damage [x mln € ] 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 20000 10000 4000 2000 1000 500 250 100 50 25 10 Exceedance probability -1 [-](Water stage [m +NAP]) 2100 Total FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 13
    • FLOODRESILIENCE STAGE-DAMAGE CURVES: ATTRIBUTES GRADUALITY • Identify discontinuities in the derivates of the stage-damage curve   N Pi  Di GRADUALITY  1   p 1 2 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 Damage [x mln € ] 90 80 70 Strong inflection point 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 20000 10000 4000 2000 1000 500 250 100 50 25 10 Exceedance probability -1 [-](Water stage [m +NAP]) 2100 Total FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 14
    • FLOODRESILIENCE RESILIENT PLANNING AND BUILDING: Damage model (where?) HIGH LEVEL OF DETAIL: High precision but low usability FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Dordrecht outer marches: Damage Distribution FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 15
    • FLOODRESILIENCE WP3 RESILIENT PLANNING AND BUILDING: Damage model (where?) GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION(CLUSTERING): High usability (where) €17.545.537 (71%) €147.886 (1%) FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Dordrecht outer marches: Damage Clustering FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 16
    • FLOODRESILIENCE WP3 RESILIENT PLANNING AND BUILDING: Damage model (where?) Example from Rotterdam-Rijnmond(where) FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Rotterdm-Rijnmond: Damage Clustering EP = 10000-1 FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 17
    • Goedereede Hellevoetsluis Dirksland Brielle Middelharnis Rozenburg Maassluis Bernisse Korendijk Vlaardingen Rotterdam Oostflakkee Schiedam Spijkenisse Oud-Beijerland Cromstrijen Moerdijk Barendrecht Strijen Capelle aan den IJssel Krimpen aan den IJssel Moerdijk Nederlek Zwijndrecht Nieuw-Lekkerland Hendrik-Ido-Ambacht Alblasserdam Dordrecht Papendrecht Werkendam Bergambacht Sliedrecht Liesveld Drimmelen Geertruidenberg Schoonhoven Hardinxveld-Giessendam ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRIBUTION: Damage per Municipality Lopik Gorinchem Woudrichem WP3 RESILIENT PLANNING AND BUILDING: Damage model (where?) Zaltbommel Lingewaal Page 18 FLOODRESILIENCE FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP
    • FLOODRESILIENCE WP3 RESILIENT PLANNING AND BUILDING: Damage model (where?) ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRIBUTION: Damage per Neighborhood 1. DIFFERENTIATED 2. ‘CEILINGS’ 3. HIERARCHY (4 Nhoods account for about 40% total expected damage) € 8.0 € 7.5 1e Merwedehaven en omgeving € 7.0 2e Merwedehaven en omgeving 3e Merwedehaven € 6.5 Achterhakkers en omgeving Beekmanstraat en omgeving € 6.0 Bleijenhoek € 5.5 Boogjes en omgeving Groenmarkt en omgeving € 5.0 Grote Markt en omgeving Damage [x mln € ] Handelskade en 's-Gravendeelsedijk € 4.5 Julianahaven € 4.0 Kalkhaven Krabbegors € 3.5 Lijnbaan € 3.0 Maasstraat en omgeving Merwelanden € 2.5 Krabbepolder Nieuwe Haven en omgeving € 2.0 Noorderkwartier € 1.5 Plein 1940-1945 en omgeving Wantijpark en omgeving € 1.0 Weeskinderendijk en Dokweg Wijnstraat en omgeving € 0.5 Wilhelminahaven € 0.0 20000 10000 4000 2000 1000 500 250 100 50 25 10 Exceedance probability-1 [-] FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Dordrecht outer marches: Damage distribution per neighborhood FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 19
    • FLOODRESILIENCE WP3 RESILIENT PLANNING AND BUILDING: Damage model (when?) TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION: Lifecycle management 1. PROACTIVE RETROFITTING (up to 32.3% damages to historical buildings) 2. REACTIVE RETROFITTING (end of lifecycle) 3. RENEWAL SCHEMES (up to 67.8% damages on post-war buildings) CHANCES FOR INTEGRATED UFM 8 7 Damage [x million €] 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 till 1904 1905-1909 1910-1914 1915-1919 1920-1924 1925-1929 1930-1934 1935-1939 1940-1944 1945-1949 1950-1954 1955-1959 1960-1964 1965-1969 1970-1974 1975-1979 1980-1984 1985-1989 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 Year of construction[y] 1/4000 1/2000 1/1000 1/500 1/250 1/100 1/50 1/25 1/10 FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Dordrecht outer marches: Damage distribution age housing stock FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 20
    • FLOODRESILIENCE WP3 RESILIENT PLANNING AND BUILDING: Damage model (what?) FUNCTIONAL DISTRIBUTION: -Features (e.g. businesses, housing, infrastructure, public space) -Typologies (e.g. row houses, appartments, detached houses) -Components (e.g. cleaning costs, structural damage, interior damage) DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE OVER BUILDING TYPOLOGY DAMAGE COMPONENTS Damage over Typology 0.053 0.039 300 0.023 0.049 250 0.087 200 Duplex # Damaged Appartment 150 Row House Semi-Detached Detached 100 0.750 50 0 4000 2000 1250 500 250 100 50 25 10 1 0.1 Frequency Cleaning Floors & Walls Doors Kitchen Installations interior -Especially for higher EPs, damage to infrastructure is major damage component -Interior damage contributes 75% to total damages to housing -Majority of inundated houses are row houses FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 21
    • FLOODRESILIENCE RESILIENT PLANNING AND BUILDING: Damage model INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE (what?) -Impacts of climate change are substatial, yet relatively gradual in progression -Levels? -Trend shift? 175 150 125 expected Damage [m€] 100 75 50 25 0 10 100 1000 10000 return period [Y] Current 2050 G+ 2100 Veerman 2050 Lockable/Open 2100 Lockable/Open Aggregate Flood Damage for scenarios FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 22
    • FLOODRESILIENCE WP3: From Damage model to Decision Support REDUCING FLOOD IMPACTS ACROSS SCALES: -Assessment of damage differentiation provides foundation for mixed-strategy -Bottom-up: Implementation of various dry-proof, wet-proof solutions -Top-down: Implementation of levee systems, combined with elevated infrastructure Housing-level Hamburg, Germany Dura Vermeer, (2004), Gouden Kust, Maasbommel, Netherlands. DuraVermeer, (2005), Drijvende Kas, Naaldwijk, Netherlands spill-over effects Urban-level Dura Vermeer, (2004), Impression Flood Resilient Neighborhood spill-over effects Catchment-level FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 23
    • FLOODRESILIENCE WP3: From Damage model to Decision Support WHAT ABOUT THE IMPACT OF NON-STRUCTURAL MEASURES: -Compensation measures -Flood insurance MOTIVATION: -Differentiated ‘Risk Landscape’ (spatial, temporal, functional) -Overall impact relatively low -Yet, higher impact levels excpected in future -Stadwerven pilot FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Artist Impression Pilot Flood Proof Building FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP Page 24