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Participation in political debates through blogging

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GOR, Mannheim, March 6, 2013

GOR, Mannheim, March 6, 2013


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  • 1. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging in Germany:A Time-Series Analysis of the Relationshipbetween Political Blogs and Mass Media Florian Buhl, M. A. General Online Research Mannheim, March 6, 2013
  • 2. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 2Weblogs – a (new) public arena for political communication Scoial environment! Issue salience in political system! Issue salience in Issue salience in mass media! political weblogs Adapted from Rössler (1997)Florian Buhl, M. A.
  • 3. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 3Temporal patterns of participation in political debates...! yester- today! tomorrow! day after ...! day! tomorrow!Florian Buhl, M. A.
  • 4. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 4Potentials for agenda-setting effects between mass mediaand political weblogs Orientation to salient issues to contribute to public opinion formation Issue salience in Issue salience in mass media! political weblogs Orientation to emerging issues and to public (audience) salience (Messner & DiStaso, 2008)Ø Findings in the USA: Bidirectional relationships between political weblogs and mass media in agenda-setting processes (Wallsten, 2007; Meraz, 2011)Florian Buhl, M. A.
  • 5. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 5Research questionsØ Which temporal patterns of participation in poltical debates through blogging can be identifed in Germany?Ø Are there indications for agenda-setting effects between political weblogs and mass media in Germany?Florian Buhl, M. A.
  • 6. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 6Data: Number of news items on four political issues•  Issues: •  Eurozone crisis •  Arab Spring •  International terrorism •  Nuclear energy•  Time frame: April 1st, 2011 – Juni 30th, 2011 (91 days)Ø Daily number of news items on each political issue in evening TV news shows and in political weblogs during the 91 days time frame under studyFlorian Buhl, M. A.
  • 7. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 7Data: Sampling and MethodsEvening TV news shows•  Sample: 5 German evening TV news shows (ARD Tagesschau, ARD Tagesthemen, ZDF heute, ZDF heute-journal, RTL Aktuell)•  N = 8778 news items•  Secondary analysis of content analysis data provided by Media TenorPolitical weblogs•  Sample: 10 political blogs with a main focus on politics sampled from the German Blogcharts (Netzpolitik, Fefes Blog, Nachdenkseiten, Alles Schall und Rauch, Carta, Politcally Incorrect, Die Achse des Guten, Internat Law, The Intelligence, Der Postillon)•  N = 6181 news items•  Original quantitative content analsyisFlorian Buhl, M. A.
  • 8. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 8Data analysis: Cross-correlational tests between time series Times series TV news ! Number of Number of Number of Number of Number of items on items on items on items on items on Time! issue! issue! issue! issue! issue! r at r at lag -2! lag +2! r at r at r at lag -1! lag +1! lag 0! Number of Number of Number of Number of Number of items on items on items on items on items on Time! issue! issue! issue! issue! issue! Time series political weblogs! day before yesterday! today! tomorrow! day after yesterday! tomorrow!Ø Both for original frequencies and for white-noise components of time series identified through ARIMA modelingFlorian Buhl, M. A.
  • 9. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 9Results: Eurozone crisis Total number of items Daily mean of items ARIMA modeling TV news 500 5.49 (1, 0, 0) AR(1) = .57 con = 5.59 Weblogs 310 3.41 (0, 0, 0) (0, 1, 1)7 MA(1)7 = .80 con = 0.43Florian Buhl, M. A.
  • 10. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 10Results: Eurozone crisis Blogs precede TV news TV news precede blogs Time lags (days) -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Original frequencies .32* .19 .18 .12 .24* .22* .18 .47* .56* .37* .23* .18 .12 .18 .32* Prewhitening .19 -.07 .04 -.09 .09 .13 -.10 -.02 .30* .23* .14 .06 -.05 .08 .14 *p < .05Ø Correspondence between issue salience in politcal weblogs and in TV newsØ Issue salience in political weblogs is predictable from issue salience in TV newsFlorian Buhl, M. A.
  • 11. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 11Results: Arab Spring Total number of items Daily mean of items ARIMA modeling TV news 916 10.07 (0, 1, 1) MA(1) = .65 Weblogs 199 2.19 (0, 0, 0) con = 2.19Florian Buhl, M. A.
  • 12. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 12Results: Arab Spring Blogs precede TV news TV news precede blogs Time lags (days) -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Original frequencies .09 .18 .23* .21 .14 .17 .14 .24* .33* .16 .17 .29* .12 .09 .24* Prewhitening -.15 .00 .12 .11 -.06 .01 -.09 .00 .23* -.02 -.03 .21 .01 -.04 .23* *p < .05Ø Correspondence between issue salience in politcal weblogs and in TV newsØ Issue salience in political weblogs is predictable from issue salience in TV newsFlorian Buhl, M. A.
  • 13. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 13Results: International terrorism Total number of items Daily mean of items ARIMA modeling TV news 390 4.29 (3, 0, 0) AR(1) = .45 AR(3) = .33 Weblogs 328 3.60 (2, 0, 0) AR(1) = .57 AR(2) = .31Florian Buhl, M. A.
  • 14. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 14Results: International terrorism Blogs precede TV news TV news precede blogs Time lags (days) -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Original frequencies .02 .01 .07 .19 .23* .32* .49* .71* .63* .67* .59* .50* .47* .37* .29* Prewhitening .01 -.08 -.11 .03 -.13 -.02 .12 .61* .09 .17 .08 -.05 .13 .00 -.04 *p < .05Ø Correspondence between issue salience in politcal weblogs and in TV newsØ Synchronous relationship between issue salience in political weblogs and in TV newsFlorian Buhl, M. A.
  • 15. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 15Results: Nuclear energy Total number of items Daily mean of items ARIMA modeling TV news 523 5.75 (0, 0, 0) con = 5.75 Weblogs 352 3.87 (0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 0)7 MA(1) = .81 AR(1)7 = .34Florian Buhl, M. A.
  • 16. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 16Results: Nuclear energy Blogs precede TV news TV news precede blogs Time lags (days) -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Original frequencies .10 .13 .14 .24* .28* .18 .11 .37* .23* .34* .28* .18 .03 .12 .28* Prewhitening .00 .08 -.04 .06 .06 -.08 -.23* .09 -.03 .11 -.07 -.12 -.20 -.04 .02 *p < .05Ø Correspondence between issue salience in politcal weblogs and in TV newsØ Issue salience in political weblogs and in TV news are not (positively) predictable from each otherFlorian Buhl, M. A.
  • 17. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 17Results: Summary of relationships of issue salience inpolitical weblogs and in TV news Original frequencies PrewhiteningEurozone crisis Weblogs predictable fromArab Spring TV news CorrespondenceInternational terrorism SynchronousNuclear energy No (positive) relationshipFlorian Buhl, M. A.
  • 18. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 18Discussion Issue salience in Issue salience in mass media! political weblogsØ Indications of agenda-settings effects of mass media on political weblogsØ Lack of indication of agenda-setting-effects of political weblogs on mass media – in contrast to findings in the USA •  Lack of focal points in the German political blogosphere (Holler, Vollnhals, & Faas, 2008) •  German journalists‘ reservation towards the use of weblogs (Neuberger & Nuernbergk, 2010) •  Opinion-focused communication in political weblogs more connective in the USAFlorian Buhl, M. A.
  • 19. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 19References•  Holler, S., Vollnhals, S., & Faas, T. (2008). Focal Points und Journalisten – Bedingungen für den Einfluss der Blogosphäre. In A. Zerfaß, M. Welker & J. Schmidt (Hrsg.), Kommunikation, Partizipation und Wirkungen im Social Web: Strategien und Anwendungen: Perspektiven für Wirtschaft, Politik und Publizistik (S. 94-111). Köln: Herbert von Halem Verlag.•  Meraz, S. (2011). Using Time Series Analysis to Measure Intermedia Agenda-Setting Influence in Traditional Media and Political Blog Networks. Journalism & Mass Communication Quarterly, 88(1), 176-194.•  Messner, M., & DiStaso, M. W. (2008). The source cycle: How traditional media and weblogs use each other as sources. Journalism Studies, 9(3), 447-463.•  Neuberger, C., & Nuernbergk, C. (2010). Competition, complementarity or integration? The relationship between professional and participatory media. Journalism Practice, 4(3), 319-332.•  Rössler, P. (1997). Die Definitionsmacht für Themen des politischen Diskurses in einer veränderten Kommunikationswelt: Agenda-Setting und die Individualisierungstendenzen im Online-Zeitalter – ein Szenario. In H. Schatz, O. Jarren & B. Knaup (Hrsg.), Machtkonzentration in der Mediengesellschaft? Beiträge zu einer Neubestimmung des Verhältnisses von politischer und medialer Macht (S. 78-97). Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag.•  Wallsten, K. (2007). Agenda Setting and the Blogosphere: An Analysis of the Relationship between Mainstream Media and Political Blogs. Review of Policy Research, 24(6), 567-587.Florian Buhl, M. A.
  • 20. Participation in Political Debates through Blogging 20 Thank you! Florian Buhl, M. A. florian.buhl@uni-muenster.deFlorian Buhl, M. A.