Predictive Maintenance


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A presentation I gave for people working with predictive maintenance outside the automotive industry based on my experience in the car industry.

Published in: Automotive

Predictive Maintenance

  1. 1. Predictive Maintenance Fredrik Ljungberg [email_address]
  2. 2. Agenda <ul><li>Maintenance from an overall perspective </li></ul><ul><li>Examples </li></ul><ul><li>Food for thoughts </li></ul>
  3. 3. Background <ul><li>Broken  Repair </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1. To restore to sound condition after damage or injury; fix: repaired the broken watch. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2. To set right; remedy: repair an oversight. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3. To renew or revitalize. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>4. To make up for or compensate for (a loss or wrong, for example). </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Maintenance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1. The act of maintaining or the state of being maintained. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2. The work of keeping something in proper condition; upkeep. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>3. a. Provision of support or livelihood: took over the maintenance of her family. b. Means of support or livelihood: was ordered to pay maintenance for both children. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>4. Law </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>The unlawful meddling in a suit by providing either party with the means to carry it on. </li></ul></ul></ul>
  4. 4. OK  Broken  Repair Repair OK
  5. 5. OK  Maint  OK  Broken  Repair Good enough Broken OK Maint Repair Maint
  6. 6. Uptime circle ( Marko Vainio )
  7. 7. Maintenance concepts <ul><li>Maintenance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Actions to keep a product in proper condition </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Preventive Maintenance (PM) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Scheduled maintenance tasks to extend the time of proper condition </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Maintenance actions based on the condition of the product </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Need for what service now? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Predictive Maintenance (PdM) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Need for maintenance actions predicted in advance </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Need for service when? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Adaptive Maintenance (AD) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Adapt content of service to the actual condition of the product </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. Examples from the car industry
  9. 9. BMW Condition Based Service <ul><li>Service concept for premium segment </li></ul><ul><li>Service schedule d based on the status of the vehicle (its condition) </li></ul><ul><li>Vehicle checks continuously the status of parts, fluid levels and mileage data and makes this information available to drivers </li></ul><ul><li>The customer is prompted when service is needed </li></ul><ul><li>Vehicle data saved in the key </li></ul><ul><li>” TeleService ” sends the data to the BMW service partner to plan service more effective </li></ul>Photo: BMW
  10. 10. Pilot project: Service Notification <ul><li>Objective </li></ul><ul><ul><li>To improve Customer Satisfaction </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To improve planning and scheduling of service in the workshop </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To reduce administration for service booking </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>To provide service for customers more rapidly </li></ul></ul>Photo: Volvo Cars
  11. 11. Pilot project: Service Notification <ul><li>Approx. 200 cars for 1 year </li></ul><ul><li>Software added to phone module </li></ul><ul><li>SMS every 1 000 km </li></ul><ul><li>Conclusion </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Customers pleased with this way of booking services </li></ul></ul><ul><li>SMS from car to VCC back office </li></ul><ul><li>Service need assessment by server software </li></ul><ul><li>Customer gets email with web form </li></ul><ul><li>Web form filled in and sent to workshop </li></ul><ul><li>Workshop propose time for service </li></ul><ul><li>Customer confirms </li></ul><ul><li>Service of car </li></ul>
  12. 12. Examples from the industrial domain
  13. 13. CBM: Condition Based Maintenance <ul><li>Analysis of values reported by sensors will result in a decision if a maintenance should be done or not </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Pressure sensors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Vibration sensors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Temperature sensors </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Voltage and ampere meters </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Flow meters </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Can be mixed with other maintenance strategies, for instance RCM </li></ul>
  14. 14. PM: Preventive Maintenance <ul><li>Scheduled maintenance tasks, e.g., infrared temperature analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Analogue measurement often used because more details </li></ul>Photo: Infrared Services
  15. 15. RCM : Reliability Centered Maintenance <ul><li>An approach to the management of reliability of complex products </li></ul><ul><li>SAE JA1011 </li></ul><ul><li>Usage </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Requirements on maintenance processes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Evaluate maintenance processes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Basics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Analysis of consequences of failures </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Failures that lead to death, environmental issues or major economical losses should be designed out of the system </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cost of maintenance tasks should be lower than cost of failure </li></ul></ul>Photo: Vattenfall
  16. 16. RCM : Reliability Centered Maintenance <ul><li>Type1  death or environmental pollution </li></ul><ul><li>Type2  downtime in production </li></ul><ul><li>Type3  repair costs </li></ul><ul><li>Type1: Should be designed out of the system or have PM tasks that make the probability of failure to near zero </li></ul><ul><li>Type2 and 3: Tasks assigned to minimize the failure probability but only if cost of the task is less than the cost of a failure. </li></ul>Photo: ABB
  17. 17. RCM : Reliability Centered Maintenance <ul><li>NAVAIR </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Naval Air Systems Command is a United States Navy command </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Partly used by SKF and Göteborg Energi </li></ul><ul><li>Very complex  few companies apply the entire process/model </li></ul>Photo: NavAir
  18. 18. Development of maintenance <ul><li>Repair after failure </li></ul><ul><li>Inspect, lubricate </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Unscheduled inspection and lubrication of components </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Preventive Maintenance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Scheduled maintenance based upon probability of failure </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Systematic Planning and Scheduling </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Add feedback to improve maintenance, e.g., if a service seems applicable, if services missing, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Predictive Maintenance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Maintenance based upon prediction of failure, e.g., time in operation </li></ul></ul>
  19. 19. Development of maintenance <ul><li>Root cause analysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Investigation of causes to breakdown </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Reliability Centered Maintenance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>A sophisticated approach to maintenance </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Operator Maintenance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The operator has been assigned tasks for maintenance and optimization </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Concurrent Engineering </li></ul>
  20. 20. Notes SKF <ul><li>From firefighting to maintenance </li></ul><ul><li>Maintenance including improvements </li></ul><ul><li>From an isolated task for a central unit to involve large parts of the company </li></ul>
  21. 21. Successful maintenance
  22. 22. Aspects of maintenance Worth doing? Follow-up Right tasks Right frequency Right techniques Motivation Detailed Structured
  23. 23. Add improvements Good enough Broken OK Maintenance Improved Optimized Improvements
  24. 24. Everybody needs to be involved <ul><li>What data to log? </li></ul><ul><li>What values imply faults? (now or later) </li></ul><ul><li>What methods will be required to find reason for fault? </li></ul><ul><li>What methods and parts are required to repair fault? </li></ul><ul><li>What methods are most successful? </li></ul><ul><li>Parts logistics (and dev./update software) </li></ul><ul><li>Workshop scheduling </li></ul><ul><li>Customer interaction </li></ul>Off-board system Back office analysis Back office systems PD MA AM
  25. 25. Why sophisticated maintenance when parts sales is so important? <ul><li>For some companies in the industry: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Selling vehicles: +/- 0 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sales of original spare parts: + </li></ul></ul><ul><li>May i mproved services imply less parts sales in the AM ? </li></ul><ul><li>If so, w hy improve maintenance? </li></ul><ul><li>Some possible reasons </li></ul><ul><ul><li>J D Powers and other surveys of customer satisfaction </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New business models require new models for the AM </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More loyal customers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Enables new kinds of services </li></ul></ul>
  26. 26. The formula ? <ul><li>Improved maint . + new offers /services </li></ul><ul><li>> </li></ul><ul><li>Today’s maint. + parts sales </li></ul>
  27. 27. Technical problems and customer-experienced problems Technical errors that the customer does not experience as problems Experienced problems but no technical error, e.g., configuration not proper (seat heater 0 degrees as default) Cust om er-experienced technical errors
  28. 28. Problems and services <ul><li>1 Non-technical service </li></ul><ul><li>2 Software campaigns addressing customer-experienced problems, and soft offer </li></ul><ul><li>3 Software campaigns addressing problems of which the customer is not aware </li></ul><ul><li>4 Non-applicable services </li></ul>
  29. 29. Redefine the scope of maintenance ? <ul><li>Maintenance of the product </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ensure ”technical problems” are managed as efficiently as possible </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Efficient maintenance of technical products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What product data to log? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What product values imply faults? (now or later) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What methods will be required to find reason for fault in the product ? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>… </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Maintenance of the customer </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ensure ”customer experienced problems” are managed as efficiently as possible </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Efficient maintenance and sales of new services </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What customer data to log? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What customer values imply faults? (now or later) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What methods will be required to find reason for fault in the customer ? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>… </li></ul></ul>
  30. 30. Thank you!