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Making The Case Talmage

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  • 1. Making the Case for Investment in Low Income Neighborhoods 2009 FLORIDA HOUSING COALITION 22nd Annual Affordable Housing Conference September 2009 1 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 2. A tale of two cities … MARKET SIZE MARKET SIZE Neighborhood A Population: 367,426 Population: 504,226 Households: 137,577 Households: 179,471 MARKET BUYING POWER MARKET BUYING POWER Median Household Income: $27,344 Median Household Income: $31,990 Average Household Income: $39,308 Average Household Income: $50,637 Aggregate Income: $5.4 Billion Aggregate Income: $9.1 Billion Income per Acre: $386,074 Aggregate Informal Economy: (9.3%) Income of New Home Buyers: $114,972 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000, Source: Social Compact Miami DrillDown 2008/2009 2 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 3. Social Compact’s Capacity DrillDowns Completed  20 cities completed  350 Underserved Neighborhoods  1.2 Million Additional Residents  $36 Billion Additional Buying Power * 50 cities have approached Social Compact for DrillDown analyses 3 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 4. What do we do with better data? 4 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 5. Census Challenge 5 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 6. Census Challenge Program Why Are Census Estimates Important?  Over 170 federal programs allocate $300 billion annually using census estimate data  For every person not captured in census estimates, the city loses $2,263 of state and federal funding  80% of retail investment deals use data derived from the census to determine where and when to invest  Inaccurate census estimates greatly contribute to the perception of the city 6 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 7. Census Challenge Program Social Compact Successes  Detroit, MI, (+47,000)  New Orleans, LA, (+50,000)  San Francisco, CA (+34,000)  Toledo, OH (+21,000)  Miami, FL (+15,000) Together, Social Compact’s census challenges will result in an additional $420 million state and federal funding to the cities. 7 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 8. Food Security 8 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 9. 2007 Houston DrillDown Findings Grocery Provider Distribution Distribution of grocery providers overlaid with grocery store sales demand. 9 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 10. 2007 Houston DrillDown Findings Grocery Customer Attraction 10 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 11. Food Desert to Food Oasis Providing East Access to Information: The Finder 11 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 12. Small Business Development 12 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 13. Small Business Business Environment Assessments Using a large number of public and private business data providers including INFO USA, NETS, and ESRI, Social Compact is creating detailed business environment profiles citywide and for tailored geographies (i.e. neighborhoods, business districts, main streets). The profiles contain an analysis of business health and performance, taking into consideration the following business characteristics:  Size SMBE – Small, Minority Owned Business Enterprise  Age SWBE – Small, Women Owned Business Enterprises  Industry Local vs. National  Relocation Performance Additional information includes:  Businesses headquartered in the city  Top performing industries  Average rental price by location  Top most prevalent industries Detailed information is provided through a series of business profiles and descriptive maps and charts. 13 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 14. Small Business Business Environment Assessments Social Compact is currently working with WDCEP and DC government on a scan of the District’s business environment, informing: Business Development Strategies  Enterprise Zone location/impact  Attraction and retention strategies  Buy Local campaigns Industry Change Analysis  Job growth/loss  Business Openings/Closings/Relocation Automated process for tracking change NEXT STEPS:  Expand this model to evaluate partnerships with federal agencies and other CDFIs to explore small business development models  World Bank: Johannesburg, Bogota, Buenos Aires, Manila, Recife, Hanoi 14 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 15. Uncover possible profitable sites per industry  Establish areas with high business density for an industry.  Determine the overall demographic and market characteristics of these areas  Search for areas with similar demographic and market characteristics that do not have businesses belonging to the industry in question (potential profitable sites).  Overlay the information on possible profitable sites with land codes and other relevant site information (i.e. nearby developments, vacant properties). This pilot analysis was possible thanks to ACCION USA’s loan data. 15 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 16. Trade areas’ properties and store performance Uncover trade area characteristics that are likely to determine store performance by industry  Determine which are the stores that are performing the best per industry (i.e. barber shops, mini markets, restaurants, etc.)  Determine if there are any common demographic and market properties in the stores’ trade areas  Establish, per industry, trade area demographic and market properties (indicators) that are likely to support high performance stores. This pilot analysis was possible thanks to ACCION USA’s loan data. 16 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 17. Financial Services 17 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 18. Financial Services  Surveys of unbanked populations and consumer expenditure patterns (Los Angeles, Miami)  Financial services finder (National): Financial advice/counselors, CDCs, NHSA  Center for Financial Empowerment (New York City) • Financial behavior analysis: household’s financial practices, products usage and access to services. • Program will leverage consumer credit bureau data as well as rich data from organized local initiatives in selected cities  Financial Diaries (Louisville) 18 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 19. Financial Services Financial Behavior Analysis (New York City) Address level variables  Presence of traditional and non traditional financial institutions  Block group level variables  Underbanked proxy: range from 1 (unbanked) to 20 (most likely banked)  Discretionary spending index: range from 0 to 100 (households rates as top spenders)  Credit card usage and number of credit lines  Revolving bankcard balances  Bank card households and bank card holders  Collateral risk score  Tract level variables  Home loan approvals  Average income and ethnicity of new homebuyers 19 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 20. Financial Services Provision 2007 Miami DrillDown Findings Bill Payment Methods Survey Results: Consumer Purchasing Patterns 100.0% Bill Payment Methods 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Liberty City Little Haiti Overtown Wynwood Cash 83.5% 76.6% 79.9% 87.0% Pay Day Loans 16.6% 42.9% 9.8% 10.8% Credit Cards 27.0% 56.2% 20.9% 37.3% Check cashing facilities 46.3% 63.2% 16.7% 29.9% Personal Checks 26.8% 50.0% 29.8% 43.9% 20 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 21. Individual’s Interest in Financial Products Los Angeles: Financial Behavior Study 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% PERSONAL MONEY HEALTH BUSINESS CHECKING SMALL BUSINESS PREPAID CARDS LOANS TRANSFERS INSURANCE INSURANCE ACCOUNT LOAN S White 15.7% 9.8% 49.0% 21.6% 53.0% 16.0% 7.9% African American 32.3% 11.9% 69.6% 34.3% 53.5% 27.7% 10.0% Asian 31.3% 43.8% 56.3% 50.0% 75.0% 62.5% 0.0% Hispanic/Latino (non indigenous) 24.5% 39.2% 49.5% 18.9% 38.3% 22.8% 13.2% Hispanic/Latino (indigenous) 18.8% 43.6% 44.1% 17.3% 36.3% 15.0% 20.0% Other 35.7% 21.4% 57.1% 21.4% 50.0% 14.3% 21.4% 21 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 22. Capturing Urban Market Potential New Tools: Risk Mitigation Profiles 22 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 23. Capturing Urban Market Potential New Tools: Risk Mitigation Profiles 23 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 24. Homeownership 24 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 25. Foreclosure Tool Indicators  Number of foreclosures (2005-2008) by month/quarter/  Number of loans originated not intended for primary year/cumulative occupancy by year (2003-2008; by census tract)  Number of notices (2005-2008) by month/quarter/  Average/Aggregate loan value by year (2003-2008; by year/cumulative census tract)  Number of market rate, arms-length transactions (2005-  Top 10 high cost loan originators by year (2003-2008; by 2008) by month/quarter/year/cumulative census tract)  Average/Median foreclosure sale price (2005-2008) by  Top 10 high cost loan purchasers by year (2003-2008; by month/quarter/year/cumulative census tract)  Average/Median market sale price (2005-2008) by  Average income of new home buyers by year (2003-2008; month/quarter/year/cumulative by census tract)  Average/Median current assessed value (2008)  Ethnicity of new home buyers by year (2003-2008; by  Number of ARM resets forthcoming over next 36 months census tract) (as of June 2008)  Total population (2008; by block group)  Number of properties with tax liens (as of June 2008)  Population density (2008; by block group)  Average/Median value of tax liens outstanding (as of June  Number of households (2008; by block group) 2008)  Average/Median/Aggregate household income (2008; by  Top 10 institutions holding REOs (2005-2008) by block group) month/quarter/year/cumulative  Income density (2008; by block group)  Address-level Property Sale Prices and Dates (as of 1995)  Number of owner-occupied units (2008; by block group)  Automated Value Models (non-distressed and distressed)  Number of renter-occupied units (2008; by block group))  Number of new loans originated by year (2003-2008; by  New construction permits (2008; by block group) census tract)  Additions/Alterations/Repairs permits (2008; by block group)  Number of high cost loans originated by year (2003-2008;  Banks per capita (Banks per 10,000 people) (2008; by block by census tract) group)  Number of high cost refinances originated by year (2003-  Nontraditional Financial Institutions per capita (Pay Day 2008; by census tract) Loans/Pawn Shops, etc per 10,000 people) (2008; by block  Number of loans originated intended for primary group) occupancy by year (2003-2008; by census tract)  Owner Occupied Buildings (2008; by block group) 25 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 26. Additional indicators  Property Characteristics (Detailed Characteristics, eg. 1-car Garage, 2-Car Garage, # of Bedrooms, Age, Masonry, Central Air, Fire Place, two Story, Attic Finished, Basement Finished, etc).  Short Sales/Distressed Sales  Loan Performance (by zipcode)  Debt Information on Loan Characteristics  Loan-to-Value  Current FICO scores  Employment Data: Population employed/Population unemployed (granularity of the data not clear yet)  Migration Data (this data tracks where residents have moved to/from we only have data on Detroit residents so it covers to/from movement of residents of Detroit but not of persons migrating to Detroit – say from Chicago).  A. Where Detroiters have moved within Detroit, tri-county, MI, out of state  B. Resident “Churn” within Detroit (moved to/from)  C. Ethnicity of this population  D. Income of this population 26 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 27. CityDNA Complete intellectual capacity of datasets 27 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 28. CityDNA Trend analysis: temporal aspects of datasets 28 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 29. CityDNA Next-generation reporting 29 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 30. CityDNA Interactive comparisons - Variables 30 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 31. CityDNA Interactive comparisons – geographic areas 31 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 32. CityDNA Interactive comparisons – address specific 32 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 33. CityDNA Interactive comparisons – by industry 33 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 34. CityDNA Interactive comparisons – reporting 34 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact
  • 35. Making the Case for Investment in Low Income Neighborhoods John Talmage, President and CEO Social Compact 738 7th St., SE, Washington, DC 20003 jtalmage@socialcompact.org 2009 FLORIDA HOUSING COALITION 22nd Annual Affordable Housing Conference September 2009 35 | www.socialcompact.org SocialCompact