Presentatie Cyril Widdershoven TNO Delft 16 april 2014

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Presentatie Cyril Widdershoven TNO Delft 16 april 2014

  1. 1. Ukraine Crisis: European Energy Wake Up Call? Dr Cyril Widdershoven BD Manager MENA Oil & Gas TNO Energy Cyril.widdershoven@tno.nl 0031-6-53819265
  2. 2. 2 About us Our capabilities Our experience
  3. 3. TNO TNO is a Dutch company with over 80 years experience in technology development and technical consultancy TNO Facts Independent Technology development, consulting and contract R&D Approximately 4000 employees Revenue: ⅔ from industry, ⅓ from Dutch government Markets Energy, Defence Safety & Security, Transport & Mobility, Information Society, Medical and Built Environment 3 Partners
  4. 4. VIEWS AND OPINIONS ARE NOT BASED ON TNO RESEARCH BUT SOLELY FROM AUTHOR! 4
  5. 5. 5
  6. 6. Why do we bother about Ukraine? 6
  7. 7. 7
  8. 8. Russian Gas Pipelines Europe 8
  9. 9. Russian Non-Ukraine Strategy to Europe 9
  10. 10. Ukraine Totally Depend on Russian Gas Supply 10
  11. 11. European Gas Imports Picture 11
  12. 12. EU Russian Gas Consumption and Dependency 12
  13. 13. Analysts: Options/Costs Russian-EU Gas Crisis 13
  14. 14. Realism to Prevail: Direct Substitution NO OPTION! EU-28 gas boycot Russian imports unfeasible Costs are too high, even that Russia will be hit harder! Replacement not available on short term Infrastructure not available for EU-28 Gas storage options only feasible NW-Europe/Spain Eastern EU member countries still to be hit extremely North Africa-Caspian options available but not on short term West Africa-East Africa in future? IRAN TO BE NEXT MAIN SUBSTITUTE? TO BE CONSIDERED! 14
  15. 15. Available Options/Reserves/Production 15
  16. 16. EU Energy Strategy to be Changed! EU Energy Strategy non-functional at present Nationalism prevails above European liberalisation and energy strategy German Energie Wende shows trend towards destabilisation EU energy markets EU needs One Foreign Energy Strategy for all - strategy needed to attract as one economic block new partners for diversification supplies - strategy needed to support import increase and domestic supply (shale gas?) Realism should be there to understand that Energy = International Politics = Security 16
  17. 17. Geopolitics at Present to Rule! EU-Russia (Gazprom) conflict brooming due to geopolitical issues Russian geopol based on old Russian dream of ‘Grand Empire’ Gazprom (and all others) pawn in Putin’s energy politics In contrast to EU-US politicians (Schroder-Blair-Bush) views on Putin, latter is no democratic liberal, but old-fashioned ex-KGB politician Krim issue only first step in Russian Chess Game Follows NATO-US unability to support Georgia before Potential new targets EU member-countries and NATO members Estland-Letland-Lithuania. Possibility of Article 5 issue Current crisis Eastern Ukraine needs to be solved. If not, ….! 17
  18. 18. Outcome Negative for Western Geopolitical Influence If NATO-EU is not effective in containing Russian expansion more is to follow Washington’s inability to step into Middle East Arab Spring Arena already has eroded Western influence Arab countries Pax Americana could be substituted by Pax Russia Arab countries (including North Africa) are not positive about Western support anymore Currently international arena tends to ‘Follow the Leader” principle 18
  19. 19. Great Game All Over Again? History Repeats Itself! 19
  20. 20. For questions, please contact: BD Manager MENA Oil & Gas Dr Cyril Widdershoven Cyril.widdershoven@tno.nl +31 6 53819265 20

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