0
The Geopolitical Impact
of the Shale Revolution
Prof . Dr. Rob de Wijk
Director HCSS
Professor of IR, The Hague Campus, Le...
Main trends:
Multipolarity and fragmentation:
• Weakening of the West
• America’s ‘rebalancing’
• Rise of ‘Clubs’ or ad-ho...
Geopolitical change:
It’s all about China

3
A new great game?
Pivot or rebalancing
• Announced in Foreign Policy, November 2011
• 2,500 US Marines will train in Australia
• Manila Decl...
Example: the AirSea Battle Concept
Declining powers: retrenchment
• Shifting resources from peripheral to core
interests.
• More emphasis on collective or co...
The Share Revolution facilitates
the rebalancing
The Shale Gas Revolution and Europe
New geopolitical dynamics
• U.S. reduces energy independence on fragile states
• Shale...
Europe
• Major reserves in France, Poland,
Ukraine
• Exploration decisions driven by
environmental, geopolitical and
histo...
Poland
Origin of EU gas imports, 2010
1,50%
2,80%

1,30%

0,20%

3,60%
7,70%

Russia
31,80%

Norway
Algeria
Qatar

8,60%

Others
...
Declining revenues
• No challenge of energy exporting countries
with big SWF (Norway, Qatar)
• Modest challenge for highly...
Russia
• Putin´s power base is energy
• End of cheap energy
• Controversies between the states and the
private sector
• Hi...
Conclusion
The shale revolution:
• Facilitates ‘rebalancing’ and ‘retrenchment’
• Strategic behavior of Poland and Ukraine...
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FEX | Industrie & Energie | 131112 | Conferentie Schaliegas & Olie | Presentatie | Rob de Wijk

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Transcript of "FEX | Industrie & Energie | 131112 | Conferentie Schaliegas & Olie | Presentatie | Rob de Wijk"

  1. 1. The Geopolitical Impact of the Shale Revolution Prof . Dr. Rob de Wijk Director HCSS Professor of IR, The Hague Campus, Leiden University
  2. 2. Main trends: Multipolarity and fragmentation: • Weakening of the West • America’s ‘rebalancing’ • Rise of ‘Clubs’ or ad-hoc groupings • Rise of state capitalism • Europe’s institutional crisis and separatism • Empowerment of the individual
  3. 3. Geopolitical change: It’s all about China 3
  4. 4. A new great game?
  5. 5. Pivot or rebalancing • Announced in Foreign Policy, November 2011 • 2,500 US Marines will train in Australia • Manila Declaration celebrating the US – 60th anniversary of the defense treaty with The Philippines. • Naval deployments, e.g. in Singapore • Air Sea battle
  6. 6. Example: the AirSea Battle Concept
  7. 7. Declining powers: retrenchment • Shifting resources from peripheral to core interests. • More emphasis on collective or cooperative security and multilateralism • Reduce the military footprint en use the ‘retrenchment dividend’ for economic development
  8. 8. The Share Revolution facilitates the rebalancing
  9. 9. The Shale Gas Revolution and Europe New geopolitical dynamics • U.S. reduces energy independence on fragile states • Shale Revolutions facilitates Rebalancing and ‘leading from behind’ New economic dynamics: • Energy prices could drop or remain lower in the U.S. • LNG rerouted to Europe and Japan • US: inshoring of energy intensive industries • Europe’s competitiveness weakens • Reinforced by focus on low carbon economy New regional dynamics • Declining revenues will affect important energy exporters • Difficult to buy off unrest
  10. 10. Europe • Major reserves in France, Poland, Ukraine • Exploration decisions driven by environmental, geopolitical and historical reasons
  11. 11. Poland
  12. 12. Origin of EU gas imports, 2010 1,50% 2,80% 1,30% 0,20% 3,60% 7,70% Russia 31,80% Norway Algeria Qatar 8,60% Others Nigeria Libya Trinidad and Tobago 14,40% Egypt Turkey 28,20%
  13. 13. Declining revenues • No challenge of energy exporting countries with big SWF (Norway, Qatar) • Modest challenge for highly developed states like Denmark and the Netherlands. • Huge challenge for ‘rentier states’ without big SWF and high youth unemployment (Algeria, Russia)
  14. 14. Russia • Putin´s power base is energy • End of cheap energy • Controversies between the states and the private sector • High taxes and government regulation • Too little modernization • Aging population
  15. 15. Conclusion The shale revolution: • Facilitates ‘rebalancing’ and ‘retrenchment’ • Strategic behavior of Poland and Ukraine • Instability in Europe´s neighbourhood • Negative consequences for Europe´s economic development • New economy - environment – stability nexus
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