Recent developments with potential
impact on the gas markets in Europe
Rene Peters
Director Gas Technology
TNO Energy
Overview
Future role of gas in the energy mix
Import dependency of gas and oil around the world
Potential impact of Shale ...
Let’s discuss some issues around gas…..
Oil & Gas Reserves:
Growth of world
population and
prosperity
Environmental impact...
World Primary Energy Demand development
the role of gas in the energy mix
From: IEA special report on gas 2011
10 januari ...
Is there still enough gas around the world?
World Proven Gas Reserves and replacement rate
From: IEA special report on gas...
The world is increasingly producing unconventional gas
World Natural Gas Production by source
From: IEA special report on ...
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
6
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
7
•10 januari 2011
•M Bouman
•TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
•8
Unconventional gas
Conventional gas
Unconventional oil
Conventional oi...
•10 januari 2011
•M Bouman
•TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
•9
US oil and gas prices
• Not coupled
• Oil increasingly expensive
• Gas cheaper below 4$
Low gas price drives:
• Gas fuelle...
EU SUPPLY PICTURE
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
11
Development natural gas prices
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
12
Cost of
LNG transport
New resources of unconventional gas changes the energy landscape
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
13
Latest EIA Estimates worldwide
technically recoverable resources
Region 2013 EIA (tcf)
Europe 470 Poland, France
North Ame...
EIA Unconventional gas in Europa
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
15
Latest EIA Estimates for Europe
technically recoverable reserves
Country 2013 EIA (tcf)
Poland 148
France 136
UK 26
Norway...
EU Shale gas resource estimates show large variations
There is a need for a more coherent workflow to estimate resources
a...
Largest gas producing countries in 2035
From: IEA special report on gas 2011
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl...
Change in Natural Gas Production by region
From: IEA special report on gas 2011
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisst...
•10 januari 2011
•M Bouman
•TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
•20
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Oil imports
Gas Imports
...
Development gas demand and supply in Europe
More import dependency
(LNG/Pipeline)?
Russia / Norway/Algeria?
Tight/Shale ga...
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
22
Import dependency from Russia
Import of gas in Europe
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
23
LNG import increasing
NEW LNG WAVE COMING?
OR: FID DOES NOT MEAN REALITY?
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
24
A lot of new LNG capa...
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The Washington Post. Published on February 7, 2013[1].
[1] http://www.wash...
Gas Production in the Netherlands
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
26
From TNO: www.nlog.nl
Gas earnings in the Netherlands
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
27
From TNO: www.nlog.nl
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
28
Dutch gas reserves are depleting the next decade
(Future) Gas production ...
Challenges in European gas supply
The gas demand is expected to be steady or growing (~550 bcm/yr)
Indigenous production i...
Key Messages
Gas will play an increasingly important role in the energy mix for decades
Gas will support the development o...
Thank you for your time and attention
Contact details
Rene Peters
rene.peters@tno.nl
Phone +31 6 51551566
@renepeters
www....
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Executive | 140624 | De Rotterdamse Chemische Industrie en Energy Efficiency? | Presentatie | René Peters

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Executive | 140624 | De Rotterdamse Chemische Industrie en Energy Efficiency? | Presentatie | René Peters

  1. 1. Recent developments with potential impact on the gas markets in Europe Rene Peters Director Gas Technology TNO Energy
  2. 2. Overview Future role of gas in the energy mix Import dependency of gas and oil around the world Potential impact of Shale Gas and Oil Challenges for the EU energy supply and industry Impact on the LNG markets and imports in Europe Is Europe prepared for a Russian – Ukraine gas crisis 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 1
  3. 3. Let’s discuss some issues around gas….. Oil & Gas Reserves: Growth of world population and prosperity Environmental impact Climate change and health of living Independency: Security of supply and geopolitics 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 2
  4. 4. World Primary Energy Demand development the role of gas in the energy mix From: IEA special report on gas 2011 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 3
  5. 5. Is there still enough gas around the world? World Proven Gas Reserves and replacement rate From: IEA special report on gas 2011 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 4
  6. 6. The world is increasingly producing unconventional gas World Natural Gas Production by source From: IEA special report on gas 2011 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 5
  7. 7. 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 6
  8. 8. 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 7
  9. 9. •10 januari 2011 •M Bouman •TNO Nieuwe huisstijl •8 Unconventional gas Conventional gas Unconventional oil Conventional oil mboe/d 5 10 15 20 25 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035 From IEA WEO 2012 Oil and Gas production in the US IEA projections
  10. 10. •10 januari 2011 •M Bouman •TNO Nieuwe huisstijl •9
  11. 11. US oil and gas prices • Not coupled • Oil increasingly expensive • Gas cheaper below 4$ Low gas price drives: • Gas fuelled transport • Re-industrialisation • Investment in chemicals • Discussion on gas export Economic crisis
  12. 12. EU SUPPLY PICTURE 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 11
  13. 13. Development natural gas prices 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 12 Cost of LNG transport
  14. 14. New resources of unconventional gas changes the energy landscape 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 13
  15. 15. Latest EIA Estimates worldwide technically recoverable resources Region 2013 EIA (tcf) Europe 470 Poland, France North America 1685 Canada, US, Mexico Asia 1607 China, Australia South America 1430 Argentina Russia 415 FSU Sub Saharan Africa 390 South Africa MENA 1007 Algeria World total 7201 From: EIA technical recoverable shale gas and oil reserves – June 2013 (1 tcf = 28 bcm) 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 14
  16. 16. EIA Unconventional gas in Europa 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 15
  17. 17. Latest EIA Estimates for Europe technically recoverable reserves Country 2013 EIA (tcf) Poland 148 France 136 UK 26 Norway 0 Denmark 32 Germany 17 The Netherlands 26 Spain 8 Romania 51 Europe total 470 tcf = 13 tcm From: EIA technical recoverable shale gas and oil reserves – June 2013 (1 tcf = 28 bcm TRR = technical recoverable reserve) (1 tcf = 28 bcm) 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 16
  18. 18. EU Shale gas resource estimates show large variations There is a need for a more coherent workflow to estimate resources and more data from shale gas exploration wells 2011 2013 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 17
  19. 19. Largest gas producing countries in 2035 From: IEA special report on gas 2011 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 18
  20. 20. Change in Natural Gas Production by region From: IEA special report on gas 2011 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 19 UK and NL
  21. 21. •10 januari 2011 •M Bouman •TNO Nieuwe huisstijl •20 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Oil imports Gas Imports United States China India European Union Japan 2010 2035 20%Gas Exports Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries From IEA WEO 2012
  22. 22. Development gas demand and supply in Europe More import dependency (LNG/Pipeline)? Russia / Norway/Algeria? Tight/Shale gas? 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 21
  23. 23. 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 22 Import dependency from Russia
  24. 24. Import of gas in Europe 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 23 LNG import increasing
  25. 25. NEW LNG WAVE COMING? OR: FID DOES NOT MEAN REALITY? 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 24 A lot of new LNG capacity is built to supply to the US But will never reach the US because of shale gas
  26. 26. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. The Washington Post. Published on February 7, 2013[1]. [1] http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/rise-of-cheap-us-coal-in-europe/2013/02/07/3ae56870-7189-11e2-8b8d-e0b59a1b8e2a_graphic.html Don’t forget coal as power source, replacing gas
  27. 27. Gas Production in the Netherlands 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 26 From TNO: www.nlog.nl
  28. 28. Gas earnings in the Netherlands 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 27 From TNO: www.nlog.nl
  29. 29. 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 28 Dutch gas reserves are depleting the next decade (Future) Gas production profile NL Groningen field Small fields Gas demand in NL Export > < ImportFrom TNO: www.nlog.nl Groningen looses its capacity as a swing producer for NL and Europe
  30. 30. Challenges in European gas supply The gas demand is expected to be steady or growing (~550 bcm/yr) Indigenous production is in decline (~50%) NL (80 bcm/yr) and NO (110 bcm/yr) are not able to increase the gas production EU countries are not willing to invest in indigenous production from unconventional resources in the next decade (except Poland, UK) The LNG market is targeting for Asia / Japan with the highest market price although import capability in West European countries is in place Interconnection of pipeline networks in Europe is poor from North – South direction and West to East. Alternative pipeline routes from Iran, Azerbeijan are still to be developed (TAP, Nabucco….) So: rely on Russian gas? 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 29
  31. 31. Key Messages Gas will play an increasingly important role in the energy mix for decades Gas will support the development of a clean energy supply via power generation and transport (GTL, LNG, CNG), provided the CO2 price is high and the gas/oil price ratio is low. Europe will be increasingly dependent on gas import, also NL from 2025+ Europe should further focus on diversification of gas supply Interconnections should enable a transparent gas market for Europe LNG import facilities, pipeline connections and UGS provide viable alternatives for Russian gas imports, however comes at a cost Increase of indigenous gas production in Europe can be realised with unconventional gas developments (tight gas and shale gas), but not reduce import levels significantly. A reduction in gas price will only be realised when a transparent global gas market is realised which is decoupled from the oil market. 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 30
  32. 32. Thank you for your time and attention Contact details Rene Peters rene.peters@tno.nl Phone +31 6 51551566 @renepeters www.tno.nl/energy 10 januari 2011 M Bouman TNO Nieuwe huisstijl 31
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