Fjord Digital Trends 2011

FJORD DIGITALTRENDS 2011Editor:Christian Lindholm, Managing Partner

TABLETS DIGITAL MICROSOFT LG APPLE MAGAZINES SINGLE SIGN-ON MOBILE GAMING EXPERIENCE WARSFACEBOOK NOKIA SERVICE PLATFORMS LIFESTREAMSLIQUID EXPERIENCES INTERNET APPLIANCESCLOUD SERVICES ASUS SUPERPHONES MONETISATION COMPANIONS SOCIAL EVERYTHING CAR AS MOBILE OS iOS LIKE NFC ANDROID GAME MECHANICS MOBILESSHARING RICH OSSMART OBJECTS PAYMEN MULTITOUCH 3D HP SAMSUNG BITPIPES CHECK-INS TSZYNGA HTC WINDOWS MOBILE 7 WANT CONTEXT FREEMIUM GESTURES WEBOS FROM NOISE WRIST OS MEEGO MOTOROLA OS WAR Mobile Wallet

‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D DIGITAL MAGAZINES: - AND BEYOND STILL SEARCHING FOR A SOUL LIFEBOATS FOR THE EXPERIENCE WARS: ‘APP FLOOD’ THE LIVING ROOM IS THE BATTLEGROUNDGOING WITH THE FLOW:‘LIQUID EXPERIENCES’ PIMP YOUR LIFE, THE CLOUD GAMING STYLE DISCOVERING BECOMES A KITE ‘LIFESTREAMS’ MOBILES GAIN MORE CURRENCY SMART OBJECTS CONNECT WITH THE MAINSTREAM TOUCH TO PAY, NOW WITH YOUR PHONETO TRENDS

LIFEBOATSFOR THE‘APP FLOOD’Consumers are drowning in a seaof apps. Fjord believescompanies that exploreinnovative navigation patterns tohelp consumers cope with the„App Flood‟ will reap big rewardsin 2011.

LIFEBOATS FORTHE ‘APP FLOOD’After the gold rush, the app market is maturing.From within the industry, we‟re seeing thenumber of platforms stabilise around keyoperating systems, and it‟s inevitable that theapps model will spread to PCs and webplatforms.And from the user‟s point of view, now that themarket is flooded with apps of every possibledescription, we‟ll see relevance, discovery andsubstance become key to success. Users will App stores will embrace the Long Tail paradigmdemand curation vehicles to help them, such as through better search functions, more elaborateapp search engines, innovative app ranking collaborative filtering and social networks. Weboards and new types of recommendation should also see the launch of app stores hostedengines. by aggregators such as Appolicious. Players like GetJar could, with innovation, reap big awards.The best apps will evolve into „Super Apps‟ withricher interaction tailored to each platform, more Amazon may also move into the apps market,clever ways to get users back to their apps. building on the Kindle‟s user base to evolve aSome will even grow into application suites, social reading platform similar to Txtr and Scribd.providing common services like single sign-on.Facebook could evolve in this way, or even into Matching the right user to the right app is set toan application framework. be a major opportunity to monetize.

LIFEBOATS FORTHE ‘APP FLOOD’ Apps search and recommendation company MIMVI will get trafficAggregators such asAppolicious would benefitfrom launching app stores Social reading platforms will emerge, Amazon could become a major player making it the Facebook of readers Google Chrome web apps could Top grossing, most used, app of the week, enable simple monetisation of the staff favourite, highest ranking are the new web metrics of success. CPMs and valuations will be derived from them

GOING WITHTHE FLOW:‘LIQUIDEXPERIENCES’Service design innovators arefinally creating services that canbe fluidly experienced on anyscreen, anywhere. We call this„Liquid Experience‟.In 2011 a liquid experience will bea core part of every significantdesign brief.

GOING WITH THEFLOW: ‘LIQUIDEXPERIENCES’Creating liquid experiences for users means These are experiences set to break free from theengineering the flow between types of screen user‟s conventional frame of reference,and interface. challenging our existing understanding of „context‟. Design for liquid experience requires a2011 will see a breakthrough for services that can completely new approach to platforms. Liquidbe fluidly experienced on any screen anywhere, experiences are horizontal by nature, for servicefinally living up to the promise of cross-platform owners they become key engagement driversintegration. Ensuring a liquid design means and important control points.optimising for each platform, and ensuring theycombine perfectly.For example, watching a movie as a passenger ina car, and then seamlessly continuing yourviewing once at home: this will rapidly become atypical everyday expectation for users.Hulu, Netflix and iPlayer are pioneers at „turningliquid‟, utility experiences like Facebook are alsogathering momentum in this direction. Currentexamples include single sign-on („Connect‟) and„Like‟ buttons emerging everywhere.

GOING WITH THEFLOW: ‘LIQUIDEXPERIENCES’ BBC - The original Liquid Experience is evolving to a screen near youThe Amazon Kindle – is becoming aLiquid Experience with a whisper syncclient for any platform Facebooks „Connect‟ and „Like‟ are Spotify is incredibly liquid and can be spreading like water drops, many other expected to morph into all kinds of features of Facebook could turn liquid forms in 2011, the Sonos integration is a great example of things to come

DIGITALMAGAZINESARE STILLSEARCHINGFOR A SOULDigital magazines are not onlysearching for new businessmodels. They also face a morefundamental problem: theconcept of a magazine needs tobe re-invented in the Tablet era.

DIGITALMAGAZINES ARESTILL SEARCHINGFOR A SOULSpurred by the success of the iPad and theforthcoming explosion of Tablets, magazines willcontinue to develop digital concepts. But withoutclear revenue streams, publishers‟ willingness torethink fundamental issues is crucial.Digital magazines face multiple problems - not Reading browsers such as Flipboard, Pulse orleast the fact they often are simply too unwieldy Elements are huge inspirations and couldand over-designed. File sizes can present storage become massive disruptors.and transmission issues that users are currentlynot prepared to put up with. And audience Printed magazines will - for the Tablet adopters -acquisition, retention and monetisation still be exposed as even more clumsy, noisy,present formidable challenges. environmentally unfriendly and user-unfriendly than ever.The off-line „curated package‟ to on-line „social‟boundary is particularly hard to manage. Fjord expects new magazine formats, vocabulary and monetisation models to emerge that will„New Reading‟ will need to merge reading, disrupt established titles. An analogue brandwatching, commenting, sharing and editing into a does not carry the same value in a digital worldsingle activity – for this we lack a good verb. one click away.

DIGITALMAGAZINES:STILL SEARCHINGFOR A SOUL Bookshelves, and magazine stands will emerge in 2011. Whomever owns the news stand will own something valuable as it also becomes your library Flipboard is the Netscape browser for the Tablet era Expect incumbents to experiment in Project is a new title in a new the analogue to digital cross over and media – expect more new fight for their magazine rack space entrants. Content is still king

PIMP YOURLIFE, GAMINGSTYLEWhy not turn aspects ofeveryday life into a game? Gamesare steadily transforming ourexperiences, bringing theattitudes and rewards of gaminginto services, and we foreseerapid growth for service designleaders in this area.

PIMP YOUR LIFE,GAMING STYLE2011 will see game mechanics being used as atool to engage users with social industries.Games can make chores fun and necessitiesnovel. Companies who can influence socialmovements will affect their numbers in 2011.Game mechanics are influencing the real world.Virtual currencies carry real value, offers come toyou when you want them.The design thinking in Nike + and Foursquare willspread to a range of services, such as loyalty It‟s possible we‟ll see the gaming approach beingcards, wellness and health services and most used to change the world in 2011. Look carefullyimportantly to marketing. Game mechanics will at Foursquare and expect some very innovativebecome a core component of new marketing. services to emerge.

PIMP YOUR LIFE,GAMING STYLE Never underestimate the power of badges, just look at scouts all over the worldGame mechanics are theserotonin of services Foursquare challenges people to explore their city using gaming mechanics Nike + gaming mechanics used to drive sports activity through an app Heia! Heia! Is a service for keeping track of any activity from picking mushrooms to ironing shirts. Maybe one could get awarded for emptying the dishwasher Reputely.com – a platform which can implement gaming mechanics to any website

SMARTOBJECTSCONNECTWITH THEMAINSTREAM2011 will see smart objects bringdigital services into our physicalenvironments. While many ofthese will be nothing more thancommon objects paired with asensor and a data connection, afew more sophisticated exampleswill use smart objects to visualiseand interact with the digitalservices already embedded in ourlives.

SMART OBJECTSCONNECT WITHTHE MAINSTREAMIt‟s finally time for smart objects to start makingtheir mark on our daily lives.The momentum of „ubiquitous computing‟ is nowincreasingly moving out of university researchdepartments and into the marketplace - to meetreal end-consumer and business needs during Eventually we‟ll see smart objects as physical2011. upgrades that we can buy to upgrade the office, home and car, similar to the way we buy apps toAs more and more everyday objects are extend functions of our phones today.embedded with sensors, these connected or„smart‟ devices are enabled to communicate Paired with digital services that we already useautomatically with each other. Unlike mobile today, smart objects have the power tophones today, these smart object blend into our transform our everyday lives. But the lack of aoffices and living environments to serve common protocol may frustrate the mostdedicated functions, 24x7. ambitious plans in 2011.

SMART OBJECTS Välkky knows when pedestrians are going to cross streets andCONNECT WITH starts flashing to alert driversTHE MAINSTREAM Integrated systems for the home offer a complete range of home automation products Smart meters send readings to your energy supplier automatically and can include energy monitoring Streetline is a smart parking system that gives drivers real-time guidance to open parking spaces Philips DirectLife calculates the Smart pill caps. A wireless signal number of calories burned every alerts base station if dose is day from any movement made, not missed, alerting a nurse just walking

‘SUPERPHONES’GO 4D- AND BEYONDForthcoming „Superphones‟ willincreasingly utilise 3D graphicsexperiences and sophisticated usesof space and time within their userinterfaces.Natural UI solutions that appearedfirst on gaming consoles, will migrateto mobile devices in 2011.

‘SUPERPHONES’GO 4D- AND BEYONDA new generation of „Superphones‟ will emerge, We include a note of caution at this point,featuring 3D graphics and progressing to include however: no common standard exists, whichcontextual time and place-aware interfaces - means that this new batch of devices may beturning them into „4D‟ experiences. harder and more confusing to use before they get easier.Many Superphones in 2011 will boast dedicatedgraphics chips and new sensors enabling novel But with new Superphones leading the way, we‟llexperiences that may approach the feel of see interfaces take us closer to the mobile deviceartificial intelligence. These „4D‟ experiences will as your „magic wand.‟rely on gestures, haptic feedback and artificialintelligence to simplify mobile life.These new devices will offer a bold challenge tothe WIMP (Windows, Icons, Modes, Pointers)paradigm of information access. We will no longersimply jump into a menu structure or app, butexplore the environment and our socialconnections using the phone as a magic wand forthe digital space.As the cycle for replacing mobile phones is veryfast, this could see a faster uptake than 3D TV athome - and glasses are not required.

‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D- AND BEYOND Hand gestures to manipulate utility applications into a 3D plane will become standard3D will allow designers to extendexperiences with „above‟, „inside‟and „behind‟ style interactions Kanzi is a technology for rapid The experience will smash the glowing user interface design and rectangle. The physical and the virtual deployment starts blurring Massive competition in next gen mobile processors create a competitive focus to the experience layer

DISCOVERING‘LIFESTREAMS’What if you could never miss amoment, never forget a thing -throughout your life? 2011 will seethe emergence of this powerful newidea within consumer expectations,and services that combine to make ita reality.

DISCOVERING‘LIFESTREAMS’In 2011 we will see increasing numbers of peopleuploading aspects of their life to the cloud. They‟llbe able to combine this across multiple onlineservices, generating meaning from data alreadyonline.Existing services will aggregate and combine tooffer users new ways to index their digital lives.The raw materials are already there: take ausers Facebook status updates, twitter updates,digital photos, blog posts, Foursquare checkins,text messages, emails, transactions, YouTube Additionally, we‟ll find specialist LifeLoggingvideo uploads and credit card statements, and services will continue to launch and enjoy wideryou would have a very complete picture of their take up in 2011. These services will also influenceexistence. the mainstream as users become increasingly concerned about the power of social networks toOur children will learn a lot more about us than reveal their personal histories.we did through a few old photographs - but we‟llneed to ask ourselves if that‟s a good thing. And Fjord believes specialised lifestream services willthere‟s currently no service or standard to grow in 2011 as banks, health institutions andsupport this kind of reflective exercise on users‟ others start to provide the outputs that can beonline data. „mashed up‟ into lifestreams.

DISCOVERING‘LIFESTREAMS’ Memolane captures photos, music, tweets, posts, and more for people to view and share in one place Mappiness provides streams of social happiness. Pixelpipe are the smart plumbers of the social network Evernote has become an international powerhouse of remembering converting 20% ViconRevuec is a wearable of users into paying customers digital camera that takes photos without intervention

TOUCH TO PAY- NOW WITHYOUR PHONE2011 will see a change in the way wepay for goods. Mobile phones willstart to become the new credit cards,as near field technology changes theway we make everyday transactions.

TOUCH TO PAY -NOW WITH YOURPHONE2011 will see a change in the way we pay forgoods, with contactless payment taking the lead.NFC is the next GPS. Contactless payment is ripefor innovation as embedding the technologywithin the mobile handset will open newopportunities, expect the unexpected.Additionally, data connections to banks throughmobile phones offer the security assurance thatboth consumers and merchants need. Paired withlocation-based deal hunting apps, shopping andtransaction opportunities will abound on mobile.Bargain hunters have the best deal at their fingertips. But being able to spend easily, especially We predict that consumers will relish the chancewith the financial crisis still fresh in consumers to make simple transactions using their handsets,minds, means that forward-looking banks will also and then learn to embrace additionaloffer expenditure tracking and financial planning functionality. It will mean the end of being rippedtools to their customers. off.

TOUCH TO PAY -NOW WITH YOURPHONE Phoolah experimented with the idea of embedding RFID tags into mobile phone skins FeliCa is a contactless RFID smart card system from SonyGaranti Banks commercialNFC service in Turkey hasencouraged more to enterthe market MasterCard Mobile Payments mean no looking for coins or a card Gemalto formed a partnership with HiCo to provide mobile phone coupons via NFC

THE TABLETTRANSFORMSWORK AS WEKNOW ITThe huge success and sales ofApple‟s iPad means that other devicemanufacturers are rushing into themarket. Differentiation will be amajor challenge. We think it cannotbe done without solid service design.We also think work will betransformed by Tablets.

THE TABLETTRANSFORMSWORK AS WEKNOW ITWe will see a massive flood of Tablet devices,sparking a fever among users. The biggest feverwill be in innovative organisations wanting tointegrate Tablets into their workflows.Both handset vendors as well as PC vendors willaggressively enter this market, leading to majorchallenges in the differentiation of their products.Vendors will need to be wary of launching Tabletswithout the support of an appropriate eco-system. A massive accessory market will grow aroundA possible solution is to pair a device with a Tablets from luxury covers by Louis Vuitton to utilityservice that is unique, and appropriate to the options like the Zagg Mate keyboard case.hardware. A host of vertical tailored services willemerge. But crucially, vendors need to be ready with their support for any new Tablet, including apps and cloudTablets are not toys, they are the future of work. services.

THE TABLET TRANSFORMSWORK AS WE KNOW IT Android‟s Tablet OS is expected to power most Tablets in 2011. It could be a big threat for Apple long-term. Another threat is Microsoft who are also expected to release a Tablet, the Windows Mobile 7 experience will scale well to Tablets.Blackberry Playbook. Theysay, “you‟ve never seenBlackberry like this” Asus and Archos introduced multi size Tablets to the market for home and work Input is what pundits complain about. We will see a surge of B2B applications Casualness of interaction, battery life and and innovations launching always on connectivity make it an indispensible tool for the mobile workforce

MOBILESGAIN MORECURRENCYThe much-anticipated digitalwallet will emerge as virtualcurrencies and new paymentsolutions emerge from all kinds ofplayers.

MOBILES GAINMORE CURRENCYMobile wallets are set to emerge as viable options These innovations mean mobile will develop as ain 2011, with banks entering the space and Pay Pal powerful platform for the reinvention of currencyramping up its mobile efforts. during 2011.In emerging markets, prepaid and SMS formatsare also likely to make an impression.We will see new methods being introduced androlled out, possibly first on iTunes and thenadopted by other stores. We‟ll see subscriptions,micropayments, coupons, and gifting modelstaking off as service designers join up the missinglinks in the monetisation of mobile. The conceptof „freemium‟ will enter consumer‟s vocabulary.Taking it further, these models will spread toweb-based models, led by Apple, Facebook andZynga, as well as innovative start ups likesingleclickcheckout.Credit card companies fight for relevance withtheir legacy format. We could start to see wholenew currencies emerging like „Zyngas‟,„Facebooks‟, or „Amazons‟.

MOBILES GAINMORE CURRENCYZynga‟s pre-paid virtual currency cards have Facebook Credits are a virtual currencybeen spreading across US stores, we expect you can use to buy virtual goods in manythat „Zyngas‟, a universal currency will emerge games and applicationsthat could even be converted back dollars Most free apps will migrate to Freemium in 2011, making it the dominant model of monetisation Mobile payment apps help you make small payments without searching for your wallet

THE CLOUDBECOMES AKITENow that cloud services are firmlyestablished, 2011 should see new„mashup‟ innovations that combinecontent and services in new ways,mixed with innovative mobile clientsoptimised for all platforms. The cloudbecomes a kite operated by mobilepeople.

THE CLOUDBECOMES A KITEFalling prices for memory space will encouragethe migration of more data into the cloud during2011.Cloud services are now already established forconsumers, and a growing perception ofscalability and stability should see them combineand flourish in new ways.Weak mobile data connections force the cloudbusinesses to make mobile clients.We‟ll also expect to see large corporations adoptcloud infrastructure, leading to concerns about„private clouds‟ versus „public clouds‟. Servicedesign will tackle new questions like privacy, Data within public clouds may attract mash upstorage, access, bandwidth questions as well as efforts. Lots of innovation is expected in dataensuring that the right information is available on visualisation, discovery and access in the year tothe right device. come.

THE CLOUDBECOMES A KITE Companies that have Google Chrome OS will change announced to introduce how we think of a PC private cloud services Pogoplug – your personal cloud attracted investment this yearEvernote and Dropbox –offer clients for mostplatforms, essential formobility

EXPERIENCE WARS:THE LIVING ROOM ISTHE BATTLEGROUNDAs the living room fills with boxes, new controls,new content, new screens and even larger flatscreens (some with 3D) the ultimate experiencebattle begins.

EXPERIENCEWARS:THE LIVINGROOM IS THE The fight for the remote becomes fierce, and as it has 40 buttons, no-one wants or can use it.BATTLEGROUND We‟ll also see exciting innovation around remote2011 will be a fascinating year for developments in controls. Gestural and innovative input methodsscreen experiences for the home. like Microsoft Kinect and SoftKinetic‟s iisu gain traction. Touch based remotes will enter the3D TV will continue to be pushed, but price market. Mobiles are increasingly used as personalsensitivity, the slow replacement cycle for new TV remotes.sets, plus consumer resistance to wearing glassesat home, means that progress may be slow. Broadcasters embrace social media, adding hash tags to content to encourage tweeting.More positively, viewers will continue to viewmore internet content through their TVs, leading We will see some broadcasters experimentingto growth in services such as Apple TV and with their monetisation and windowingGoogle TV, plus the hugely successful BBC strategies, launching free-to-air content acrossiPlayer. different platforms to try to find the best way to grow revenue and audiences. Meanwhile, bigAt the same time Tablets enter the living room. pay-per-view players like Sky will retaliate withInnovative services are now emerging where entertainment and sports deals (similar to theircontent is on the TV control and metadata is on recent HBO contract), ensuring consumers stillTablets. pay for content in key areas.

EXPERIENCE WARS:THE LIVING ROOM ISTHE BATTLEGROUND 3D TV will continue to grow – but will it boom? Companion experiences will emerge for mostVirgins TiVo box – it learns what you shows on Tabletslike then records content for you,helping to discover new shows andkeep up with what you like Microsoft‟s Kinect is changing the way we interact with our TVs Remote controls will innovate, becoming gestural, social and touch based

THANK YOUChristian@Fjordnet.comwww.fjordnet.com

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Fjord Digital Trends 2011

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