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FJORD DIGITAL
TRENDS 2011
Editor:
Christian Lindholm, Managing Partner
TABLETS           DIGITAL MICROSOFT
                    LG
           APPLE MAGAZINES SINGLE SIGN-ON
     MOBILE GAMING      EXPERIENCE WARS
FACEBOOK NOKIA SERVICE PLATFORMS
                   LIFESTREAMS
LIQUID EXPERIENCES    INTERNET APPLIANCES
CLOUD SERVICES ASUS SUPERPHONES
    MONETISATION              COMPANIONS
 SOCIAL EVERYTHING
 CAR AS MOBILE OS
                         iOS
                           LIKE
                                  NFC
            ANDROID GAME MECHANICS
                 MOBILES
SHARING
         RICH OS
SMART OBJECTS
                PAYMEN MULTITOUCH 3D
   HP    SAMSUNG BITPIPES CHECK-INS
                TS
ZYNGA HTC WINDOWS MOBILE 7
                          WANT
                             CONTEXT
               FREEMIUM       GESTURES
                    WEBOS
 FROM NOISE        WRIST OS MEEGO
        MOTOROLA    OS WAR     Mobile Wallet
‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D     DIGITAL MAGAZINES:
 - AND BEYOND            STILL SEARCHING FOR A SOUL

  LIFEBOATS FOR THE
                          EXPERIENCE WARS:
  ‘APP FLOOD’
                          THE LIVING ROOM IS THE
                          BATTLEGROUND
GOING WITH THE FLOW:
‘LIQUID EXPERIENCES’                 PIMP YOUR LIFE,
                     THE CLOUD
                                     GAMING STYLE
   DISCOVERING       BECOMES A KITE
   ‘LIFESTREAMS’
                             MOBILES GAIN MORE
                             CURRENCY
   SMART OBJECTS CONNECT
   WITH THE MAINSTREAM       TOUCH TO PAY, NOW WITH
                            YOUR PHONE
TO TRENDS
LIFEBOATS
FOR THE
‘APP FLOOD’
Consumers are drowning in a sea
of apps. Fjord believes
companies that explore
innovative navigation patterns to
help consumers cope with the
„App Flood‟ will reap big rewards
in 2011.
LIFEBOATS FOR
THE ‘APP FLOOD’
After the gold rush, the app market is maturing.

From within the industry, we‟re seeing the
number of platforms stabilise around key
operating systems, and it‟s inevitable that the
apps model will spread to PCs and web
platforms.

And from the user‟s point of view, now that the
market is flooded with apps of every possible
description, we‟ll see relevance, discovery and
substance become key to success. Users will          App stores will embrace the Long Tail paradigm
demand curation vehicles to help them, such as       through better search functions, more elaborate
app search engines, innovative app ranking           collaborative filtering and social networks. We
boards and new types of recommendation               should also see the launch of app stores hosted
engines.                                             by aggregators such as Appolicious. Players like
                                                     GetJar could, with innovation, reap big awards.
The best apps will evolve into „Super Apps‟ with
richer interaction tailored to each platform, more   Amazon may also move into the apps market,
clever ways to get users back to their apps.         building on the Kindle‟s user base to evolve a
Some will even grow into application suites,         social reading platform similar to Txtr and Scribd.
providing common services like single sign-on.
Facebook could evolve in this way, or even into      Matching the right user to the right app is set to
an application framework.                            be a major opportunity to monetize.
LIFEBOATS FOR
THE ‘APP FLOOD’

                                                                    Apps search and recommendation
                                                                    company MIMVI will get traffic

Aggregators such as
Appolicious would benefit
from launching app stores




                                             Social reading platforms will
                                             emerge, Amazon could become a
                                             major player making it the
                                             Facebook of readers




         Google Chrome web apps could                Top grossing, most used, app of the week,
         enable simple monetisation of the           staff favourite, highest ranking are the new
         web                                         metrics of success. CPMs and valuations will
                                                     be derived from them
GOING WITH
THE FLOW:
‘LIQUID
EXPERIENCES’
Service design innovators are
finally creating services that can
be fluidly experienced on any
screen, anywhere. We call this
„Liquid Experience‟.

In 2011 a liquid experience will be
a core part of every significant
design brief.
GOING WITH THE
FLOW: ‘LIQUID
EXPERIENCES’
Creating liquid experiences for users means           These are experiences set to break free from the
engineering the flow between types of screen          user‟s conventional frame of reference,
and interface.                                        challenging our existing understanding of
                                                      „context‟. Design for liquid experience requires a
2011 will see a breakthrough for services that can    completely new approach to platforms. Liquid
be fluidly experienced on any screen anywhere,        experiences are horizontal by nature, for service
finally living up to the promise of cross-platform    owners they become key engagement drivers
integration. Ensuring a liquid design means           and important control points.
optimising for each platform, and ensuring they
combine perfectly.

For example, watching a movie as a passenger in
a car, and then seamlessly continuing your
viewing once at home: this will rapidly become a
typical everyday expectation for users.

Hulu, Netflix and iPlayer are pioneers at „turning
liquid‟, utility experiences like Facebook are also
gathering momentum in this direction. Current
examples include single sign-on („Connect‟) and
„Like‟ buttons emerging everywhere.
GOING WITH THE
FLOW: ‘LIQUID
EXPERIENCES’

                                                BBC - The original Liquid
                                                Experience is evolving to a
                                                screen near you


The Amazon Kindle – is becoming a
Liquid Experience with a whisper sync
client for any platform




       Facebook's „Connect‟ and „Like‟ are              Spotify is incredibly liquid and can be
       spreading like water drops, many other           expected to morph into all kinds of
       features of Facebook could turn liquid           forms in 2011, the Sonos integration is a
                                                        great example of things to come
DIGITAL
MAGAZINES
ARE STILL
SEARCHING
FOR A SOUL
Digital magazines are not only
searching for new business
models. They also face a more
fundamental problem: the
concept of a magazine needs to
be re-invented in the Tablet era.
DIGITAL
MAGAZINES ARE
STILL SEARCHING
FOR A SOUL
Spurred by the success of the iPad and the
forthcoming explosion of Tablets, magazines will
continue to develop digital concepts. But without
clear revenue streams, publishers‟ willingness to
rethink fundamental issues is crucial.

Digital magazines face multiple problems - not
                                                     Reading browsers such as Flipboard, Pulse or
least the fact they often are simply too unwieldy
                                                     Elements are huge inspirations and could
and over-designed. File sizes can present storage
                                                     become massive disruptors.
and transmission issues that users are currently
not prepared to put up with. And audience
                                                     Printed magazines will - for the Tablet adopters -
acquisition, retention and monetisation still
                                                     be exposed as even more clumsy, noisy,
present formidable challenges.
                                                     environmentally unfriendly and user-unfriendly
                                                     than ever.
The off-line „curated package‟ to on-line „social‟
boundary is particularly hard to manage.
                                                     Fjord expects new magazine formats, vocabulary
                                                     and monetisation models to emerge that will
„New Reading‟ will need to merge reading,            disrupt established titles. An analogue brand
watching, commenting, sharing and editing into a     does not carry the same value in a digital world
single activity – for this we lack a good verb.      one click away.
DIGITAL
MAGAZINES:
STILL SEARCHING
FOR A SOUL                                                             Bookshelves, and
                                                                       magazine stands will
                                                                       emerge in 2011.
                                                                       Whomever owns the
                                                                       news stand will own
                                                                       something valuable as
                                                                       it also becomes your
                                                                       library
     Flipboard is the Netscape
     browser for the Tablet era




                                     Expect incumbents to experiment in
   Project is a new title in a new   the analogue to digital cross over and
   media – expect more new           fight for their magazine rack space
   entrants. Content is still king
PIMP YOUR
LIFE, GAMING
STYLE
Why not turn aspects of
everyday life into a game? Games
are steadily transforming our
experiences, bringing the
attitudes and rewards of gaming
into services, and we foresee
rapid growth for service design
leaders in this area.
PIMP YOUR LIFE,
GAMING STYLE
2011 will see game mechanics being used as a
tool to engage users with social industries.

Games can make chores fun and necessities
novel. Companies who can influence social
movements will affect their numbers in 2011.

Game mechanics are influencing the real world.
Virtual currencies carry real value, offers come to
you when you want them.

The design thinking in Nike + and Foursquare will
spread to a range of services, such as loyalty        It‟s possible we‟ll see the gaming approach being
cards, wellness and health services and most          used to change the world in 2011. Look carefully
importantly to marketing. Game mechanics will         at Foursquare and expect some very innovative
become a core component of new marketing.             services to emerge.
PIMP YOUR LIFE,
GAMING STYLE
                                                      Never underestimate the
                                                      power of badges, just look
                                                      at scouts all over the world




Game mechanics are the
serotonin of services                                 Foursquare challenges
                                                      people to explore their city
                                                      using gaming mechanics



 Nike + gaming mechanics used
 to drive sports activity through
 an app

                                            Heia! Heia! Is a service for keeping
                                            track of any activity from picking
                                            mushrooms to ironing shirts. Maybe
                                            one could get awarded for emptying
                                            the dishwasher

               Reputely.com – a platform
               which can implement gaming
               mechanics to any website
SMART
OBJECTS
CONNECT
WITH THE
MAINSTREAM
2011 will see smart objects bring
digital services into our physical
environments. While many of
these will be nothing more than
common objects paired with a
sensor and a data connection, a
few more sophisticated examples
will use smart objects to visualise
and interact with the digital
services already embedded in our
lives.
SMART OBJECTS
CONNECT WITH
THE MAINSTREAM
It‟s finally time for smart objects to start making
their mark on our daily lives.

The momentum of „ubiquitous computing‟ is now
increasingly moving out of university research
departments and into the marketplace - to meet
real end-consumer and business needs during           Eventually we‟ll see smart objects as physical
2011.                                                 upgrades that we can buy to upgrade the office,
                                                      home and car, similar to the way we buy apps to
As more and more everyday objects are                 extend functions of our phones today.
embedded with sensors, these connected or
„smart‟ devices are enabled to communicate            Paired with digital services that we already use
automatically with each other. Unlike mobile          today, smart objects have the power to
phones today, these smart object blend into our       transform our everyday lives. But the lack of a
offices and living environments to serve              common protocol may frustrate the most
dedicated functions, 24x7.                            ambitious plans in 2011.
SMART OBJECTS                                                          Välkky knows when pedestrians
                                                                       are going to cross streets and

CONNECT WITH                                                           starts flashing to alert drivers


THE MAINSTREAM


                                                                           Integrated systems for the
                                                                           home offer a complete range
                                                                           of home automation products
                               Smart meters send readings to your
                               energy supplier automatically and
                               can include energy monitoring



 Streetline is a smart parking system
 that gives drivers real-time
 guidance to open parking spaces




                  Philips DirectLife calculates the                 Smart pill caps. A wireless signal
                  number of calories burned every                   alerts base station if dose is
                  day from any movement made, not                   missed, alerting a nurse
                  just walking
‘SUPERPHONES’
GO 4D
- AND BEYOND
Forthcoming „Superphones‟ will
increasingly utilise 3D graphics
experiences and sophisticated uses
of space and time within their user
interfaces.

Natural UI solutions that appeared
first on gaming consoles, will migrate
to mobile devices in 2011.
‘SUPERPHONES’
GO 4D
- AND BEYOND
A new generation of „Superphones‟ will emerge,         We include a note of caution at this point,
featuring 3D graphics and progressing to include       however: no common standard exists, which
contextual time and place-aware interfaces -           means that this new batch of devices may be
turning them into „4D‟ experiences.                    harder and more confusing to use before they
                                                       get easier.
Many Superphones in 2011 will boast dedicated
graphics chips and new sensors enabling novel          But with new Superphones leading the way, we‟ll
experiences that may approach the feel of              see interfaces take us closer to the mobile device
artificial intelligence. These „4D‟ experiences will   as your „magic wand.‟
rely on gestures, haptic feedback and artificial
intelligence to simplify mobile life.

These new devices will offer a bold challenge to
the WIMP (Windows, Icons, Modes, Pointers)
paradigm of information access. We will no longer
simply jump into a menu structure or app, but
explore the environment and our social
connections using the phone as a magic wand for
the digital space.

As the cycle for replacing mobile phones is very
fast, this could see a faster uptake than 3D TV at
home - and glasses are not required.
‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D
- AND BEYOND


                                                                          Hand gestures to manipulate
                                                                          utility applications into a 3D
                                                                          plane will become standard


3D will allow designers to extend
experiences with „above‟, „inside‟
and „behind‟ style interactions



                                     Kanzi is a technology for rapid   The experience will smash the glowing
                                     user interface design and         rectangle. The physical and the virtual
                                     deployment                        starts blurring




                    Massive competition in next gen mobile
                    processors create a competitive focus
                    to the experience layer
DISCOVERING
‘LIFESTREAMS’
What if you could never miss a
moment, never forget a thing -
throughout your life? 2011 will see
the emergence of this powerful new
idea within consumer expectations,
and services that combine to make it
a reality.
DISCOVERING
‘LIFESTREAMS’
In 2011 we will see increasing numbers of people
uploading aspects of their life to the cloud. They‟ll
be able to combine this across multiple online
services, generating meaning from data already
online.

Existing services will aggregate and combine to
offer users new ways to index their digital lives.
The raw materials are already there: take a
user's Facebook status updates, twitter updates,
digital photos, blog posts, Foursquare checkins,
text messages, emails, transactions, YouTube            Additionally, we‟ll find specialist LifeLogging
video uploads and credit card statements, and           services will continue to launch and enjoy wider
you would have a very complete picture of their         take up in 2011. These services will also influence
existence.                                              the mainstream as users become increasingly
                                                        concerned about the power of social networks to
Our children will learn a lot more about us than        reveal their personal histories.
we did through a few old photographs - but we‟ll
need to ask ourselves if that‟s a good thing. And       Fjord believes specialised lifestream services will
there‟s currently no service or standard to             grow in 2011 as banks, health institutions and
support this kind of reflective exercise on users‟      others start to provide the outputs that can be
online data.                                            „mashed up‟ into lifestreams.
DISCOVERING
‘LIFESTREAMS’



                                                    Memolane captures photos,
                                                    music, tweets, posts, and more
                                                    for people to view and share in
                                                    one place
 Mappiness provides streams
 of social happiness. Pixelpipe
 are the smart plumbers of the
 social network




                   Evernote has become an
                   international powerhouse of
                   remembering converting 20%       ViconRevuec is a wearable
                   of users into paying customers   digital camera that takes
                                                    photos without intervention
TOUCH TO PAY
- NOW WITH
YOUR PHONE
2011 will see a change in the way we
pay for goods. Mobile phones will
start to become the new credit cards,
as near field technology changes the
way we make everyday transactions.
TOUCH TO PAY -
NOW WITH YOUR
PHONE
2011 will see a change in the way we pay for
goods, with contactless payment taking the lead.

NFC is the next GPS. Contactless payment is ripe
for innovation as embedding the technology
within the mobile handset will open new
opportunities, expect the unexpected.

Additionally, data connections to banks through
mobile phones offer the security assurance that
both consumers and merchants need. Paired with
location-based deal hunting apps, shopping and
transaction opportunities will abound on mobile.

Bargain hunters have the best deal at their finger
tips. But being able to spend easily, especially      We predict that consumers will relish the chance
with the financial crisis still fresh in consumers'   to make simple transactions using their handsets,
minds, means that forward-looking banks will also     and then learn to embrace additional
offer expenditure tracking and financial planning     functionality. It will mean the end of being ripped
tools to their customers.                             off.
TOUCH TO PAY -
NOW WITH YOUR
PHONE
                      Phoolah experimented with
                      the idea of embedding RFID
                      tags into mobile phone skins




                                                     FeliCa is a contactless RFID
                                                     smart card system from Sony



Garanti Bank's commercial
NFC service in Turkey has
encouraged more to enter
the market


                                                               MasterCard Mobile Payments
                                                               mean no looking for coins or a
                                                               card
                 Gemalto formed a partnership
                 with HiCo to provide mobile
                 phone coupons via NFC
THE TABLET
TRANSFORMS
WORK AS WE
KNOW IT
The huge success and sales of
Apple‟s iPad means that other device
manufacturers are rushing into the
market. Differentiation will be a
major challenge. We think it cannot
be done without solid service design.
We also think work will be
transformed by Tablets.
THE TABLET
TRANSFORMS
WORK AS WE
KNOW IT
We will see a massive flood of Tablet devices,
sparking a fever among users. The biggest fever
will be in innovative organisations wanting to
integrate Tablets into their workflows.

Both handset vendors as well as PC vendors will
aggressively enter this market, leading to major
challenges in the differentiation of their products.

Vendors will need to be wary of launching Tablets
without the support of an appropriate eco-
system.
                                                       A massive accessory market will grow around
A possible solution is to pair a device with a         Tablets from luxury covers by Louis Vuitton to utility
service that is unique, and appropriate to the         options like the Zagg Mate keyboard case.
hardware. A host of vertical tailored services will
emerge.                                                But crucially, vendors need to be ready with their
                                                       support for any new Tablet, including apps and cloud
Tablets are not toys, they are the future of work.     services.
THE TABLET TRANSFORMS
WORK AS WE KNOW IT

                                                            Android‟s Tablet OS is expected to power
                                                            most Tablets in 2011. It could be a big threat
                                                            for Apple long-term. Another threat is
                                                            Microsoft who are also expected to release a
                                                            Tablet, the Windows Mobile 7 experience will
                                                            scale well to Tablets.
Blackberry Playbook. They
say, “you‟ve never seen
Blackberry like this”                  Asus and Archos introduced
                                       multi size Tablets to the
                                       market for home and work




       Input is what pundits complain about.                    We will see a surge of B2B applications
       Casualness of interaction, battery life and              and innovations launching
       always on connectivity make it an
       indispensible tool for the mobile workforce
MOBILES
GAIN MORE
CURRENCY
The much-anticipated digital
wallet will emerge as virtual
currencies and new payment
solutions emerge from all kinds of
players.
MOBILES GAIN
MORE CURRENCY
Mobile wallets are set to emerge as viable options    These innovations mean mobile will develop as a
in 2011, with banks entering the space and Pay Pal    powerful platform for the reinvention of currency
ramping up its mobile efforts.                        during 2011.

In emerging markets, prepaid and SMS formats
are also likely to make an impression.

We will see new methods being introduced and
rolled out, possibly first on iTunes and then
adopted by other stores. We‟ll see subscriptions,
micropayments, coupons, and gifting models
taking off as service designers join up the missing
links in the monetisation of mobile. The concept
of „freemium‟ will enter consumer‟s vocabulary.

Taking it further, these models will spread to
web-based models, led by Apple, Facebook and
Zynga, as well as innovative start ups like
singleclickcheckout.

Credit card companies fight for relevance with
their legacy format. We could start to see whole
new currencies emerging like „Zyngas‟,
„Facebooks‟, or „Amazons‟.
MOBILES GAIN
MORE CURRENCY



Zynga‟s pre-paid virtual currency cards have             Facebook Credits are a virtual currency
been spreading across US stores, we expect               you can use to buy virtual goods in many
that „Zyngas‟, a universal currency will emerge          games and applications
that could even be converted back dollars




                                                  Most free apps will migrate to
                                                  Freemium in 2011, making it the
                                                  dominant model of monetisation




                  Mobile payment apps help you
                  make small payments without
                  searching for your wallet
THE CLOUD
BECOMES A
KITE
Now that cloud services are firmly
established, 2011 should see new
„mashup‟ innovations that combine
content and services in new ways,
mixed with innovative mobile clients
optimised for all platforms. The cloud
becomes a kite operated by mobile
people.
THE CLOUD
BECOMES A KITE
Falling prices for memory space will encourage
the migration of more data into the cloud during
2011.

Cloud services are now already established for
consumers, and a growing perception of
scalability and stability should see them combine
and flourish in new ways.

Weak mobile data connections force the cloud
businesses to make mobile clients.

We‟ll also expect to see large corporations adopt
cloud infrastructure, leading to concerns about
„private clouds‟ versus „public clouds‟. Service
design will tackle new questions like privacy,        Data within public clouds may attract mash up
storage, access, bandwidth questions as well as       efforts. Lots of innovation is expected in data
ensuring that the right information is available on   visualisation, discovery and access in the year to
the right device.                                     come.
THE CLOUD
BECOMES A KITE



                                                                         Companies that have
                   Google Chrome OS will change                          announced to introduce
                   how we think of a PC                                  private cloud services




                                                  Pogoplug – your personal cloud
                                                  attracted investment this year



Evernote and Dropbox –
offer clients for most
platforms, essential for
mobility
EXPERIENCE WARS:
THE LIVING ROOM IS
THE BATTLEGROUND
As the living room fills with boxes, new controls,
new content, new screens and even larger flat
screens (some with 3D) the ultimate experience
battle begins.
EXPERIENCE
WARS:
THE LIVING
ROOM IS THE                                           The fight for the remote becomes fierce, and as it
                                                      has 40 buttons, no-one wants or can use it.
BATTLEGROUND                                          We‟ll also see exciting innovation around remote
2011 will be a fascinating year for developments in   controls. Gestural and innovative input methods
screen experiences for the home.                      like Microsoft Kinect and SoftKinetic‟s iisu gain
                                                      traction. Touch based remotes will enter the
3D TV will continue to be pushed, but price           market. Mobiles are increasingly used as personal
sensitivity, the slow replacement cycle for new TV    remotes.
sets, plus consumer resistance to wearing glasses
at home, means that progress may be slow.             Broadcasters embrace social media, adding hash
                                                      tags to content to encourage tweeting.
More positively, viewers will continue to view
more internet content through their TVs, leading      We will see some broadcasters experimenting
to growth in services such as Apple TV and            with their monetisation and windowing
Google TV, plus the hugely successful BBC             strategies, launching free-to-air content across
iPlayer.                                              different platforms to try to find the best way to
                                                      grow revenue and audiences. Meanwhile, big
At the same time Tablets enter the living room.       pay-per-view players like Sky will retaliate with
Innovative services are now emerging where            entertainment and sports deals (similar to their
content is on the TV control and metadata is on       recent HBO contract), ensuring consumers still
Tablets.                                              pay for content in key areas.
EXPERIENCE WARS:
THE LIVING ROOM IS
THE BATTLEGROUND


                                                                        3D TV will continue to
                                                                        grow – but will it boom?

                                         Companion experiences
                                         will emerge for most
Virgin's TiVo box – it learns what you   shows on Tablets
like then records content for you,
helping to discover new shows and
keep up with what you like




  Microsoft‟s Kinect is changing the
  way we interact with our TVs


                                                                 Remote controls will innovate,
                                                                 becoming gestural, social and
                                                                 touch based
THANK YOU
Christian@Fjordnet.com
www.fjordnet.com

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Fjord Digital Trends 2011

  • 1. FJORD DIGITAL TRENDS 2011 Editor: Christian Lindholm, Managing Partner
  • 2. TABLETS DIGITAL MICROSOFT LG APPLE MAGAZINES SINGLE SIGN-ON MOBILE GAMING EXPERIENCE WARS FACEBOOK NOKIA SERVICE PLATFORMS LIFESTREAMS LIQUID EXPERIENCES INTERNET APPLIANCES CLOUD SERVICES ASUS SUPERPHONES MONETISATION COMPANIONS SOCIAL EVERYTHING CAR AS MOBILE OS iOS LIKE NFC ANDROID GAME MECHANICS MOBILES SHARING RICH OS SMART OBJECTS PAYMEN MULTITOUCH 3D HP SAMSUNG BITPIPES CHECK-INS TS ZYNGA HTC WINDOWS MOBILE 7 WANT CONTEXT FREEMIUM GESTURES WEBOS FROM NOISE WRIST OS MEEGO MOTOROLA OS WAR Mobile Wallet
  • 3. ‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D DIGITAL MAGAZINES: - AND BEYOND STILL SEARCHING FOR A SOUL LIFEBOATS FOR THE EXPERIENCE WARS: ‘APP FLOOD’ THE LIVING ROOM IS THE BATTLEGROUND GOING WITH THE FLOW: ‘LIQUID EXPERIENCES’ PIMP YOUR LIFE, THE CLOUD GAMING STYLE DISCOVERING BECOMES A KITE ‘LIFESTREAMS’ MOBILES GAIN MORE CURRENCY SMART OBJECTS CONNECT WITH THE MAINSTREAM TOUCH TO PAY, NOW WITH YOUR PHONE TO TRENDS
  • 4. LIFEBOATS FOR THE ‘APP FLOOD’ Consumers are drowning in a sea of apps. Fjord believes companies that explore innovative navigation patterns to help consumers cope with the „App Flood‟ will reap big rewards in 2011.
  • 5. LIFEBOATS FOR THE ‘APP FLOOD’ After the gold rush, the app market is maturing. From within the industry, we‟re seeing the number of platforms stabilise around key operating systems, and it‟s inevitable that the apps model will spread to PCs and web platforms. And from the user‟s point of view, now that the market is flooded with apps of every possible description, we‟ll see relevance, discovery and substance become key to success. Users will App stores will embrace the Long Tail paradigm demand curation vehicles to help them, such as through better search functions, more elaborate app search engines, innovative app ranking collaborative filtering and social networks. We boards and new types of recommendation should also see the launch of app stores hosted engines. by aggregators such as Appolicious. Players like GetJar could, with innovation, reap big awards. The best apps will evolve into „Super Apps‟ with richer interaction tailored to each platform, more Amazon may also move into the apps market, clever ways to get users back to their apps. building on the Kindle‟s user base to evolve a Some will even grow into application suites, social reading platform similar to Txtr and Scribd. providing common services like single sign-on. Facebook could evolve in this way, or even into Matching the right user to the right app is set to an application framework. be a major opportunity to monetize.
  • 6. LIFEBOATS FOR THE ‘APP FLOOD’ Apps search and recommendation company MIMVI will get traffic Aggregators such as Appolicious would benefit from launching app stores Social reading platforms will emerge, Amazon could become a major player making it the Facebook of readers Google Chrome web apps could Top grossing, most used, app of the week, enable simple monetisation of the staff favourite, highest ranking are the new web metrics of success. CPMs and valuations will be derived from them
  • 7. GOING WITH THE FLOW: ‘LIQUID EXPERIENCES’ Service design innovators are finally creating services that can be fluidly experienced on any screen, anywhere. We call this „Liquid Experience‟. In 2011 a liquid experience will be a core part of every significant design brief.
  • 8. GOING WITH THE FLOW: ‘LIQUID EXPERIENCES’ Creating liquid experiences for users means These are experiences set to break free from the engineering the flow between types of screen user‟s conventional frame of reference, and interface. challenging our existing understanding of „context‟. Design for liquid experience requires a 2011 will see a breakthrough for services that can completely new approach to platforms. Liquid be fluidly experienced on any screen anywhere, experiences are horizontal by nature, for service finally living up to the promise of cross-platform owners they become key engagement drivers integration. Ensuring a liquid design means and important control points. optimising for each platform, and ensuring they combine perfectly. For example, watching a movie as a passenger in a car, and then seamlessly continuing your viewing once at home: this will rapidly become a typical everyday expectation for users. Hulu, Netflix and iPlayer are pioneers at „turning liquid‟, utility experiences like Facebook are also gathering momentum in this direction. Current examples include single sign-on („Connect‟) and „Like‟ buttons emerging everywhere.
  • 9. GOING WITH THE FLOW: ‘LIQUID EXPERIENCES’ BBC - The original Liquid Experience is evolving to a screen near you The Amazon Kindle – is becoming a Liquid Experience with a whisper sync client for any platform Facebook's „Connect‟ and „Like‟ are Spotify is incredibly liquid and can be spreading like water drops, many other expected to morph into all kinds of features of Facebook could turn liquid forms in 2011, the Sonos integration is a great example of things to come
  • 10. DIGITAL MAGAZINES ARE STILL SEARCHING FOR A SOUL Digital magazines are not only searching for new business models. They also face a more fundamental problem: the concept of a magazine needs to be re-invented in the Tablet era.
  • 11. DIGITAL MAGAZINES ARE STILL SEARCHING FOR A SOUL Spurred by the success of the iPad and the forthcoming explosion of Tablets, magazines will continue to develop digital concepts. But without clear revenue streams, publishers‟ willingness to rethink fundamental issues is crucial. Digital magazines face multiple problems - not Reading browsers such as Flipboard, Pulse or least the fact they often are simply too unwieldy Elements are huge inspirations and could and over-designed. File sizes can present storage become massive disruptors. and transmission issues that users are currently not prepared to put up with. And audience Printed magazines will - for the Tablet adopters - acquisition, retention and monetisation still be exposed as even more clumsy, noisy, present formidable challenges. environmentally unfriendly and user-unfriendly than ever. The off-line „curated package‟ to on-line „social‟ boundary is particularly hard to manage. Fjord expects new magazine formats, vocabulary and monetisation models to emerge that will „New Reading‟ will need to merge reading, disrupt established titles. An analogue brand watching, commenting, sharing and editing into a does not carry the same value in a digital world single activity – for this we lack a good verb. one click away.
  • 12. DIGITAL MAGAZINES: STILL SEARCHING FOR A SOUL Bookshelves, and magazine stands will emerge in 2011. Whomever owns the news stand will own something valuable as it also becomes your library Flipboard is the Netscape browser for the Tablet era Expect incumbents to experiment in Project is a new title in a new the analogue to digital cross over and media – expect more new fight for their magazine rack space entrants. Content is still king
  • 13. PIMP YOUR LIFE, GAMING STYLE Why not turn aspects of everyday life into a game? Games are steadily transforming our experiences, bringing the attitudes and rewards of gaming into services, and we foresee rapid growth for service design leaders in this area.
  • 14. PIMP YOUR LIFE, GAMING STYLE 2011 will see game mechanics being used as a tool to engage users with social industries. Games can make chores fun and necessities novel. Companies who can influence social movements will affect their numbers in 2011. Game mechanics are influencing the real world. Virtual currencies carry real value, offers come to you when you want them. The design thinking in Nike + and Foursquare will spread to a range of services, such as loyalty It‟s possible we‟ll see the gaming approach being cards, wellness and health services and most used to change the world in 2011. Look carefully importantly to marketing. Game mechanics will at Foursquare and expect some very innovative become a core component of new marketing. services to emerge.
  • 15. PIMP YOUR LIFE, GAMING STYLE Never underestimate the power of badges, just look at scouts all over the world Game mechanics are the serotonin of services Foursquare challenges people to explore their city using gaming mechanics Nike + gaming mechanics used to drive sports activity through an app Heia! Heia! Is a service for keeping track of any activity from picking mushrooms to ironing shirts. Maybe one could get awarded for emptying the dishwasher Reputely.com – a platform which can implement gaming mechanics to any website
  • 16. SMART OBJECTS CONNECT WITH THE MAINSTREAM 2011 will see smart objects bring digital services into our physical environments. While many of these will be nothing more than common objects paired with a sensor and a data connection, a few more sophisticated examples will use smart objects to visualise and interact with the digital services already embedded in our lives.
  • 17. SMART OBJECTS CONNECT WITH THE MAINSTREAM It‟s finally time for smart objects to start making their mark on our daily lives. The momentum of „ubiquitous computing‟ is now increasingly moving out of university research departments and into the marketplace - to meet real end-consumer and business needs during Eventually we‟ll see smart objects as physical 2011. upgrades that we can buy to upgrade the office, home and car, similar to the way we buy apps to As more and more everyday objects are extend functions of our phones today. embedded with sensors, these connected or „smart‟ devices are enabled to communicate Paired with digital services that we already use automatically with each other. Unlike mobile today, smart objects have the power to phones today, these smart object blend into our transform our everyday lives. But the lack of a offices and living environments to serve common protocol may frustrate the most dedicated functions, 24x7. ambitious plans in 2011.
  • 18. SMART OBJECTS Välkky knows when pedestrians are going to cross streets and CONNECT WITH starts flashing to alert drivers THE MAINSTREAM Integrated systems for the home offer a complete range of home automation products Smart meters send readings to your energy supplier automatically and can include energy monitoring Streetline is a smart parking system that gives drivers real-time guidance to open parking spaces Philips DirectLife calculates the Smart pill caps. A wireless signal number of calories burned every alerts base station if dose is day from any movement made, not missed, alerting a nurse just walking
  • 19. ‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D - AND BEYOND Forthcoming „Superphones‟ will increasingly utilise 3D graphics experiences and sophisticated uses of space and time within their user interfaces. Natural UI solutions that appeared first on gaming consoles, will migrate to mobile devices in 2011.
  • 20. ‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D - AND BEYOND A new generation of „Superphones‟ will emerge, We include a note of caution at this point, featuring 3D graphics and progressing to include however: no common standard exists, which contextual time and place-aware interfaces - means that this new batch of devices may be turning them into „4D‟ experiences. harder and more confusing to use before they get easier. Many Superphones in 2011 will boast dedicated graphics chips and new sensors enabling novel But with new Superphones leading the way, we‟ll experiences that may approach the feel of see interfaces take us closer to the mobile device artificial intelligence. These „4D‟ experiences will as your „magic wand.‟ rely on gestures, haptic feedback and artificial intelligence to simplify mobile life. These new devices will offer a bold challenge to the WIMP (Windows, Icons, Modes, Pointers) paradigm of information access. We will no longer simply jump into a menu structure or app, but explore the environment and our social connections using the phone as a magic wand for the digital space. As the cycle for replacing mobile phones is very fast, this could see a faster uptake than 3D TV at home - and glasses are not required.
  • 21. ‘SUPERPHONES’ GO 4D - AND BEYOND Hand gestures to manipulate utility applications into a 3D plane will become standard 3D will allow designers to extend experiences with „above‟, „inside‟ and „behind‟ style interactions Kanzi is a technology for rapid The experience will smash the glowing user interface design and rectangle. The physical and the virtual deployment starts blurring Massive competition in next gen mobile processors create a competitive focus to the experience layer
  • 22. DISCOVERING ‘LIFESTREAMS’ What if you could never miss a moment, never forget a thing - throughout your life? 2011 will see the emergence of this powerful new idea within consumer expectations, and services that combine to make it a reality.
  • 23. DISCOVERING ‘LIFESTREAMS’ In 2011 we will see increasing numbers of people uploading aspects of their life to the cloud. They‟ll be able to combine this across multiple online services, generating meaning from data already online. Existing services will aggregate and combine to offer users new ways to index their digital lives. The raw materials are already there: take a user's Facebook status updates, twitter updates, digital photos, blog posts, Foursquare checkins, text messages, emails, transactions, YouTube Additionally, we‟ll find specialist LifeLogging video uploads and credit card statements, and services will continue to launch and enjoy wider you would have a very complete picture of their take up in 2011. These services will also influence existence. the mainstream as users become increasingly concerned about the power of social networks to Our children will learn a lot more about us than reveal their personal histories. we did through a few old photographs - but we‟ll need to ask ourselves if that‟s a good thing. And Fjord believes specialised lifestream services will there‟s currently no service or standard to grow in 2011 as banks, health institutions and support this kind of reflective exercise on users‟ others start to provide the outputs that can be online data. „mashed up‟ into lifestreams.
  • 24. DISCOVERING ‘LIFESTREAMS’ Memolane captures photos, music, tweets, posts, and more for people to view and share in one place Mappiness provides streams of social happiness. Pixelpipe are the smart plumbers of the social network Evernote has become an international powerhouse of remembering converting 20% ViconRevuec is a wearable of users into paying customers digital camera that takes photos without intervention
  • 25. TOUCH TO PAY - NOW WITH YOUR PHONE 2011 will see a change in the way we pay for goods. Mobile phones will start to become the new credit cards, as near field technology changes the way we make everyday transactions.
  • 26. TOUCH TO PAY - NOW WITH YOUR PHONE 2011 will see a change in the way we pay for goods, with contactless payment taking the lead. NFC is the next GPS. Contactless payment is ripe for innovation as embedding the technology within the mobile handset will open new opportunities, expect the unexpected. Additionally, data connections to banks through mobile phones offer the security assurance that both consumers and merchants need. Paired with location-based deal hunting apps, shopping and transaction opportunities will abound on mobile. Bargain hunters have the best deal at their finger tips. But being able to spend easily, especially We predict that consumers will relish the chance with the financial crisis still fresh in consumers' to make simple transactions using their handsets, minds, means that forward-looking banks will also and then learn to embrace additional offer expenditure tracking and financial planning functionality. It will mean the end of being ripped tools to their customers. off.
  • 27. TOUCH TO PAY - NOW WITH YOUR PHONE Phoolah experimented with the idea of embedding RFID tags into mobile phone skins FeliCa is a contactless RFID smart card system from Sony Garanti Bank's commercial NFC service in Turkey has encouraged more to enter the market MasterCard Mobile Payments mean no looking for coins or a card Gemalto formed a partnership with HiCo to provide mobile phone coupons via NFC
  • 28. THE TABLET TRANSFORMS WORK AS WE KNOW IT The huge success and sales of Apple‟s iPad means that other device manufacturers are rushing into the market. Differentiation will be a major challenge. We think it cannot be done without solid service design. We also think work will be transformed by Tablets.
  • 29. THE TABLET TRANSFORMS WORK AS WE KNOW IT We will see a massive flood of Tablet devices, sparking a fever among users. The biggest fever will be in innovative organisations wanting to integrate Tablets into their workflows. Both handset vendors as well as PC vendors will aggressively enter this market, leading to major challenges in the differentiation of their products. Vendors will need to be wary of launching Tablets without the support of an appropriate eco- system. A massive accessory market will grow around A possible solution is to pair a device with a Tablets from luxury covers by Louis Vuitton to utility service that is unique, and appropriate to the options like the Zagg Mate keyboard case. hardware. A host of vertical tailored services will emerge. But crucially, vendors need to be ready with their support for any new Tablet, including apps and cloud Tablets are not toys, they are the future of work. services.
  • 30. THE TABLET TRANSFORMS WORK AS WE KNOW IT Android‟s Tablet OS is expected to power most Tablets in 2011. It could be a big threat for Apple long-term. Another threat is Microsoft who are also expected to release a Tablet, the Windows Mobile 7 experience will scale well to Tablets. Blackberry Playbook. They say, “you‟ve never seen Blackberry like this” Asus and Archos introduced multi size Tablets to the market for home and work Input is what pundits complain about. We will see a surge of B2B applications Casualness of interaction, battery life and and innovations launching always on connectivity make it an indispensible tool for the mobile workforce
  • 31. MOBILES GAIN MORE CURRENCY The much-anticipated digital wallet will emerge as virtual currencies and new payment solutions emerge from all kinds of players.
  • 32. MOBILES GAIN MORE CURRENCY Mobile wallets are set to emerge as viable options These innovations mean mobile will develop as a in 2011, with banks entering the space and Pay Pal powerful platform for the reinvention of currency ramping up its mobile efforts. during 2011. In emerging markets, prepaid and SMS formats are also likely to make an impression. We will see new methods being introduced and rolled out, possibly first on iTunes and then adopted by other stores. We‟ll see subscriptions, micropayments, coupons, and gifting models taking off as service designers join up the missing links in the monetisation of mobile. The concept of „freemium‟ will enter consumer‟s vocabulary. Taking it further, these models will spread to web-based models, led by Apple, Facebook and Zynga, as well as innovative start ups like singleclickcheckout. Credit card companies fight for relevance with their legacy format. We could start to see whole new currencies emerging like „Zyngas‟, „Facebooks‟, or „Amazons‟.
  • 33. MOBILES GAIN MORE CURRENCY Zynga‟s pre-paid virtual currency cards have Facebook Credits are a virtual currency been spreading across US stores, we expect you can use to buy virtual goods in many that „Zyngas‟, a universal currency will emerge games and applications that could even be converted back dollars Most free apps will migrate to Freemium in 2011, making it the dominant model of monetisation Mobile payment apps help you make small payments without searching for your wallet
  • 34. THE CLOUD BECOMES A KITE Now that cloud services are firmly established, 2011 should see new „mashup‟ innovations that combine content and services in new ways, mixed with innovative mobile clients optimised for all platforms. The cloud becomes a kite operated by mobile people.
  • 35. THE CLOUD BECOMES A KITE Falling prices for memory space will encourage the migration of more data into the cloud during 2011. Cloud services are now already established for consumers, and a growing perception of scalability and stability should see them combine and flourish in new ways. Weak mobile data connections force the cloud businesses to make mobile clients. We‟ll also expect to see large corporations adopt cloud infrastructure, leading to concerns about „private clouds‟ versus „public clouds‟. Service design will tackle new questions like privacy, Data within public clouds may attract mash up storage, access, bandwidth questions as well as efforts. Lots of innovation is expected in data ensuring that the right information is available on visualisation, discovery and access in the year to the right device. come.
  • 36. THE CLOUD BECOMES A KITE Companies that have Google Chrome OS will change announced to introduce how we think of a PC private cloud services Pogoplug – your personal cloud attracted investment this year Evernote and Dropbox – offer clients for most platforms, essential for mobility
  • 37. EXPERIENCE WARS: THE LIVING ROOM IS THE BATTLEGROUND As the living room fills with boxes, new controls, new content, new screens and even larger flat screens (some with 3D) the ultimate experience battle begins.
  • 38. EXPERIENCE WARS: THE LIVING ROOM IS THE The fight for the remote becomes fierce, and as it has 40 buttons, no-one wants or can use it. BATTLEGROUND We‟ll also see exciting innovation around remote 2011 will be a fascinating year for developments in controls. Gestural and innovative input methods screen experiences for the home. like Microsoft Kinect and SoftKinetic‟s iisu gain traction. Touch based remotes will enter the 3D TV will continue to be pushed, but price market. Mobiles are increasingly used as personal sensitivity, the slow replacement cycle for new TV remotes. sets, plus consumer resistance to wearing glasses at home, means that progress may be slow. Broadcasters embrace social media, adding hash tags to content to encourage tweeting. More positively, viewers will continue to view more internet content through their TVs, leading We will see some broadcasters experimenting to growth in services such as Apple TV and with their monetisation and windowing Google TV, plus the hugely successful BBC strategies, launching free-to-air content across iPlayer. different platforms to try to find the best way to grow revenue and audiences. Meanwhile, big At the same time Tablets enter the living room. pay-per-view players like Sky will retaliate with Innovative services are now emerging where entertainment and sports deals (similar to their content is on the TV control and metadata is on recent HBO contract), ensuring consumers still Tablets. pay for content in key areas.
  • 39. EXPERIENCE WARS: THE LIVING ROOM IS THE BATTLEGROUND 3D TV will continue to grow – but will it boom? Companion experiences will emerge for most Virgin's TiVo box – it learns what you shows on Tablets like then records content for you, helping to discover new shows and keep up with what you like Microsoft‟s Kinect is changing the way we interact with our TVs Remote controls will innovate, becoming gestural, social and touch based