F22 U S Retail On Site Printed 1.11

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A report on the size of U.S. retail printed photo output with 5-year projections

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F22 U S Retail On Site Printed 1.11

  1. 1. U.S. Retail Photo Print Output 2009-2014<br />cover<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />1<br />
  2. 2. What’s Dragging this Down?<br />2<br />Consumer Adaptation<br />Institutional Failure<br /><ul><li>From Selective Printing to “no thanks”
  3. 3. From Email & Photo Sites to Social Media (esp. Facebook & Picasa Web Albums)
  4. 4. From DSC to Cameraphones and Smartphones.
  5. 5. From Still Images to Short-From Video (the “Flip Factor”)</li></ul>DSC’s that provide complexities and no solutions.<br />Unnecessarily “bloated” image files.<br />Retailer retreat (capital, labor, space, advertising)<br />No one driving awareness and demand for the category<br />Far too many unnecessary friction points for consumers to navigate from capture to retail output services.<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 2<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  6. 6. Situation Analysis<br />Conventionalprint volume (film + digital) and revenue continues to fall and that fall has accelerated in 2010.<br />Conventional digital print volume and revenue began to decline in 2009 and the decline will continue.<br />Walmart Stores, which enjoyed share leadership for numerous years, has slipped from the top position, with promotional drug chains Walgreens and CVS gaining share.<br />Personalized printed output continues to be the on-demand print category growth opportunity for retailers.<br />Kiosk prints as a % of total prints will grow as retailers increasingly turn to lower-cost, lower-touch print solutions while consumers opt for instant gratification.<br />3<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 3<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  7. 7. Situation Analysis - 2<br />Transformation from “wet” chemical minilabs to “dry” ink, dye-sub, laser and xerographic replacement print platforms has begun (e.g. Walmart has completed more than ½ of their installed base to Fuji and Epson Inkjet and Xerox . Meijer and Duane Reade have Hewlett-Packard ink and laser platforms. CVS and Target are rapidly updating with Kodak Apex dry solutions).<br />Seasonal demand spikes are a significant and increasing challenge for retailers as demand shifts from everyday conventional print demand to personalized products, with primary demand concentrated from mid-November through late-December.<br />Focus required to identify and develop new output products with everyday demand.<br />4<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 4<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  8. 8. 5<br />Total On-Site Photo Print Output <br />2009-2014(4x6 Equivalent Units - B)<br />The growth of personalized printed output is not yet on a trend to compensate fully for the loss of conventional print consumption.<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 5<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  9. 9. 6<br />Total On-Site Photo Print Revenue ($B) <br />2009-2014<br /><ul><li>The richer revenue from personalized output, however, could begin to drive higher category revenues and margins within 5 years.
  10. 10. By 2014 revenues from personalized printed products are likely to represent more than 50% of category print revenues. </li></ul>Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 6<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  11. 11. 7<br />Retail Digital Prints(Conventional 4x6 Equivalent Prints - B)<br /><ul><li>Total Conventional Digital Prints at retail began to decline in 2009 and that decline will continue.
  12. 12. Minilab prints, under current trends, will decline by >40% over next 5 years while Instant prints hold steady.</li></ul>Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 7<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  13. 13. 8<br />Retail Digital Prints(Conventional 4x6 Equivalent Prints - B)<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 8<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  14. 14. 9<br />Total Retail Prints(Conventional + Personalized Prints 4x6 Equivalent Prints - B)<br /><ul><li>The addition of personalized prints creates a far more attractive view of the category.
  15. 15. This projection does not consider likely growth driven by inevitable new products and enabling technology</li></ul>Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 9<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  16. 16. 10<br />Instant Prints vs. Minilab Prints(Conventional 4x6 Equiv. Prints - B)<br /><ul><li>There are forces at work that advance the need for minilab printing (especially web-2-store printing, new personalized product possibilities, and the availability of informed staff).
  17. 17. There are, simultaneously, forces at work that limit the investment interest in minilabs (especially labor costs, operational complexities, and declining revenues).
  18. 18. Other trigger events which could radically alter share of prints would include print from Facebook.</li></ul>Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 10<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  19. 19. Seasonality of Print Revenue2014<br />11<br /><ul><li>Current personalized printed products are dominated by products with demand primarily from mid-November through late-December.
  20. 20. As the share of output from personalized printed output grows this trend threatens to shift even more volume to a narrow holiday window.
  21. 21. The popularity of photo merchandise, which is currently dominated by holiday gift giving increases the challenges of equipping and staffing this changing category.</li></ul>Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 11<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  22. 22. 12<br />Personalized Photo PrintsShare of Revenue - 2009<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 12<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  23. 23. Wet vs. Dry PrintsB - Conventional Prints<br />13<br /><ul><li>Dry printing will rapidly replace AgX prints over the next 5 years
  24. 24. A majority of all personalized printed output will be dry.</li></ul>Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 13<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  25. 25. Wet vs. Dry Prints% of Conventional Prints<br />14<br /><ul><li>Dry prints will rapidly begin to replace AgX prints over the next 5 years.</li></ul>Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 14<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  26. 26. 15<br />Threats & Opportunities<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 15<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  27. 27. Engines of Growth<br />16<br />Meeting consumers where they love to be with simple, meaningful, affordable solutions (print from Facebook and pick-up in an hour)<br />Personalized Event Celebration Bundles<br />Home Décor<br />Commercial Image-Rich Printed Output<br />Retail Products with Output Components<br />Licensed Content for Consumer and Commercial Output<br />Delivering a select number of new high-demand products with year-long demand<br />Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010<br />PAGE 16<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010<br />
  28. 28. Personalized Event Celebration Bundles<br />Birthday<br />Anniversaries<br />Family Gatherings<br />Class Reunions<br />In Remembrance<br />….and much more!<br />Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009<br />PAGE 17<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009<br />17<br />
  29. 29. Executed properly this could be (will be?) the print-industry and consumer memory preservation salvation.<br />Executed properly this could re-establish Fujifilm and its retail partners as the dominant force for years to come.<br />Executed properly this could dramatically increase overall retail print demand, re-establish a category investment rationale for retailers, and re-anchor dedicated support in key mass retail locations.<br />18<br />Print from Facebook<br />Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009<br />PAGE 18<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009<br />
  30. 30. Home Decor<br />Canvas Prints<br />Posters<br />Collages<br />Framed Prints<br />Etc.<br />PAGE 19<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009<br />19<br />Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009<br />
  31. 31. Commercial Image-Rich Printed Output<br />Flyers<br />Menus<br />Direct Mail <br />Catalogs<br />Image-Rich Business Cards<br />Banners<br />Interior and Exterior Signs<br />Variable Data Advertising (circulars, handbills, etc.)<br />Variable Data Direct Mail Materials<br />….and much more!<br />Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009<br />PAGE 20<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009<br />20<br />
  32. 32. Retail Products with Output Components <br />Build-An-Album (pages vs. books)<br />Collage Frame and Software bundles<br />Album, Scanner & Software Bundles<br />QiGO-powered Retail Products<br />….and much more!<br />Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009<br />PAGE 21<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009<br />21<br />
  33. 33. Licensed Content for Consumer and Commercial Output<br />Disney Characters & Movie Releases)<br />Mattel<br />Hasbro<br />Martha Stewart<br />NFL<br />NBA<br />MLB<br />NASCAR<br />Warner Brothers (Characters & Movie Releases)<br />Pixar (Characters & Movie Releases)<br />Celebrities<br />Events (Festivals, Major Sports Events, Concerts, etc.)<br />….and Much More<br />Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009<br />PAGE 22<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009<br />22<br />
  34. 34. Retail Photo Output Projections Update<br />PAGE 23<br />Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009<br />Frank Baillargeon<br />Thank You<br />23<br />

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