F22 U S  Retail On Site Printed   1.11
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F22 U S Retail On Site Printed 1.11

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A report on the size of U.S. retail printed photo output with 5-year projections

A report on the size of U.S. retail printed photo output with 5-year projections

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F22 U S  Retail On Site Printed   1.11 F22 U S Retail On Site Printed 1.11 Presentation Transcript

  • U.S. Retail Photo Print Output 2009-2014
    cover
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010
    1
  • What’s Dragging this Down?
    2
    Consumer Adaptation
    Institutional Failure
    • From Selective Printing to “no thanks”
    • From Email & Photo Sites to Social Media (esp. Facebook & Picasa Web Albums)
    • From DSC to Cameraphones and Smartphones.
    • From Still Images to Short-From Video (the “Flip Factor”)
    DSC’s that provide complexities and no solutions.
    Unnecessarily “bloated” image files.
    Retailer retreat (capital, labor, space, advertising)
    No one driving awareness and demand for the category
    Far too many unnecessary friction points for consumers to navigate from capture to retail output services.
    Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010
    PAGE 2
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
  • Situation Analysis
    Conventionalprint volume (film + digital) and revenue continues to fall and that fall has accelerated in 2010.
    Conventional digital print volume and revenue began to decline in 2009 and the decline will continue.
    Walmart Stores, which enjoyed share leadership for numerous years, has slipped from the top position, with promotional drug chains Walgreens and CVS gaining share.
    Personalized printed output continues to be the on-demand print category growth opportunity for retailers.
    Kiosk prints as a % of total prints will grow as retailers increasingly turn to lower-cost, lower-touch print solutions while consumers opt for instant gratification.
    3
    Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010
    PAGE 3
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
  • Situation Analysis - 2
    Transformation from “wet” chemical minilabs to “dry” ink, dye-sub, laser and xerographic replacement print platforms has begun (e.g. Walmart has completed more than ½ of their installed base to Fuji and Epson Inkjet and Xerox . Meijer and Duane Reade have Hewlett-Packard ink and laser platforms. CVS and Target are rapidly updating with Kodak Apex dry solutions).
    Seasonal demand spikes are a significant and increasing challenge for retailers as demand shifts from everyday conventional print demand to personalized products, with primary demand concentrated from mid-November through late-December.
    Focus required to identify and develop new output products with everyday demand.
    4
    Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010
    PAGE 4
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
  • 5
    Total On-Site Photo Print Output
    2009-2014(4x6 Equivalent Units - B)
    The growth of personalized printed output is not yet on a trend to compensate fully for the loss of conventional print consumption.
    Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010
    PAGE 5
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
  • 6
    Total On-Site Photo Print Revenue ($B)
    2009-2014
    • The richer revenue from personalized output, however, could begin to drive higher category revenues and margins within 5 years.
    • By 2014 revenues from personalized printed products are likely to represent more than 50% of category print revenues.
    Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010
    PAGE 6
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
  • 7
    Retail Digital Prints(Conventional 4x6 Equivalent Prints - B)
    • Total Conventional Digital Prints at retail began to decline in 2009 and that decline will continue.
    • Minilab prints, under current trends, will decline by >40% over next 5 years while Instant prints hold steady.
    Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010
    PAGE 7
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
  • 8
    Retail Digital Prints(Conventional 4x6 Equivalent Prints - B)
    Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010
    PAGE 8
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
  • 9
    Total Retail Prints(Conventional + Personalized Prints 4x6 Equivalent Prints - B)
    • The addition of personalized prints creates a far more attractive view of the category.
    • This projection does not consider likely growth driven by inevitable new products and enabling technology
    Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010
    PAGE 9
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
  • 10
    Instant Prints vs. Minilab Prints(Conventional 4x6 Equiv. Prints - B)
    • There are forces at work that advance the need for minilab printing (especially web-2-store printing, new personalized product possibilities, and the availability of informed staff).
    • There are, simultaneously, forces at work that limit the investment interest in minilabs (especially labor costs, operational complexities, and declining revenues).
    • Other trigger events which could radically alter share of prints would include print from Facebook.
    Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010
    PAGE 10
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
  • Seasonality of Print Revenue2014
    11
    • Current personalized printed products are dominated by products with demand primarily from mid-November through late-December.
    • As the share of output from personalized printed output grows this trend threatens to shift even more volume to a narrow holiday window.
    • The popularity of photo merchandise, which is currently dominated by holiday gift giving increases the challenges of equipping and staffing this changing category.
    Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010
    PAGE 11
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
  • 12
    Personalized Photo PrintsShare of Revenue - 2009
    Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010
    PAGE 12
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
  • Wet vs. Dry PrintsB - Conventional Prints
    13
    • Dry printing will rapidly replace AgX prints over the next 5 years
    • A majority of all personalized printed output will be dry.
    Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010
    PAGE 13
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
  • Wet vs. Dry Prints% of Conventional Prints
    14
    • Dry prints will rapidly begin to replace AgX prints over the next 5 years.
    Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010
    PAGE 14
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
  • 15
    Threats & Opportunities
    Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010
    PAGE 15
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
  • Engines of Growth
    16
    Meeting consumers where they love to be with simple, meaningful, affordable solutions (print from Facebook and pick-up in an hour)
    Personalized Event Celebration Bundles
    Home Décor
    Commercial Image-Rich Printed Output
    Retail Products with Output Components
    Licensed Content for Consumer and Commercial Output
    Delivering a select number of new high-demand products with year-long demand
    Retail Photo Output – 2009-2014
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2010
    PAGE 16
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting - 2010
  • Personalized Event Celebration Bundles
    Birthday
    Anniversaries
    Family Gatherings
    Class Reunions
    In Remembrance
    ….and much more!
    Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009
    PAGE 17
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009
    17
  • Executed properly this could be (will be?) the print-industry and consumer memory preservation salvation.
    Executed properly this could re-establish Fujifilm and its retail partners as the dominant force for years to come.
    Executed properly this could dramatically increase overall retail print demand, re-establish a category investment rationale for retailers, and re-anchor dedicated support in key mass retail locations.
    18
    Print from Facebook
    Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009
    PAGE 18
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009
  • Home Decor
    Canvas Prints
    Posters
    Collages
    Framed Prints
    Etc.
    PAGE 19
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009
    19
    Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009
  • Commercial Image-Rich Printed Output
    Flyers
    Menus
    Direct Mail
    Catalogs
    Image-Rich Business Cards
    Banners
    Interior and Exterior Signs
    Variable Data Advertising (circulars, handbills, etc.)
    Variable Data Direct Mail Materials
    ….and much more!
    Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009
    PAGE 20
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009
    20
  • Retail Products with Output Components
    Build-An-Album (pages vs. books)
    Collage Frame and Software bundles
    Album, Scanner & Software Bundles
    QiGO-powered Retail Products
    ….and much more!
    Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009
    PAGE 21
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009
    21
  • Licensed Content for Consumer and Commercial Output
    Disney Characters & Movie Releases)
    Mattel
    Hasbro
    Martha Stewart
    NFL
    NBA
    MLB
    NASCAR
    Warner Brothers (Characters & Movie Releases)
    Pixar (Characters & Movie Releases)
    Celebrities
    Events (Festivals, Major Sports Events, Concerts, etc.)
    ….and Much More
    Retail Photo Output Projections Update – May 2009
    PAGE 22
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009
    22
  • Retail Photo Output Projections Update
    PAGE 23
    Confidential Property of [F/22] Consulting, Inc. - 2009
    Frank Baillargeon
    Thank You
    23