2009 Economic Outlook Feb 2009 update

We proposed our forecast in late december 2008 based in part on the November 18, 2008 OECD GDP growth forecast. The numbers are now coming in, and the actuals are not as bad as initially anticipated The U.S. Real GDP Growth 3Q08 actual came in at -0.1% vs. a forecast of -0.3% The same happened for the 4Q08 actual which came in at -1.0% vs. a forecast of -2.8% This is not something to rejoice about. However, it indicates that some of the bailouts and handouts from the government have had a « cushioning effect » on the economic deterioration.

18-Feb-2009 Gross domestic product - Fourth quarter 2008 Percentage change on the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted data -1.0% Source: OECD Quarterly National Accounts

AND U.S. GDP IS ON A GOOD PATH TO POSITIVE RECOVERY IN 2H09, EPS IN 1H10, CONSUMER IN 2H10 -0.1 -1.0 actuals

Now that the 3Q and the 4Q 2008 actuals came in better than in the initial forecast, let’s hope that… a/ the second bailout package of $787 billion on the rest of the economy will have a kick-start effect on the real economy b/ the Q1 and Q2 2009 forecasts of respectively -2.0% and -0.8% come in better than expected c/ Q3 2009 is the first positive GDP real growth quarter with a 0.6% forecast, and the first quarter to the B2B recovery, with 2Q 2010 the first quarter of the B2C recovery This is for the U.S. economy. The European economy will continue to suffer through 1Q 2010.