metlife Investor Day 2008 Investments

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    metlife Investor Day 2008 Investments - Presentation Transcript

    1. 08 Steven A. Kandarian Executive Vice President & Chief Investment Officer
    2. Defensively Positioned for Current Environment • Identified weaknesses in certain asset sectors early and took action • Repositioned portfolio for recession beginning in 2007 • Reduced balance sheet leverage and increased liquidity 2
    3. 08 Market Overview
    4. 2009 Market View and Themes Economy Global recession Inflation Contained, talk of deflation Fed Rates remain low Credit Fundamentals deteriorate Real Estate Fundamentals deteriorate Spreads Well ahead of fundamentals 4
    5. Spreads are Historically Wide Corporate Bond Spreads: Structured Finance Spreads: 1920 to Present 2000 to Present Long-term BBB Rated Corporate Bonds AAA CMBS 800 688bps 1,800 6/30/32 1,554 bps 700 11/20/08 590 bps 1,600 11/28/08 600 1,400 1,200 500 1,000 400 800 300 600 200 400 100 200 -0 0 1920 1931 1942 1953 1964 1975 1986 1997 2008 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Moody's Investors Service through 11/30/08 Source: Barclays AAA CMBS Index spreads through 11/30/08 5
    6. High Yield Spreads and Default Rates Delinked The Credit Cycle 18% 2000 16% Moody's U.S. Speculative Grade Default Rates 1750 Trailing 12-month Default Rate (%) Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield 14% Spread over Treasuries 1500 12% 1250 (bps) 10% 1000 8% 750 6% 500 4% 250 2% 0 0% 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 Spreads through 11/30/08; Default Rate through 10/31/08 6
    7. 08 Portfolio Income
    8. 2009 Plan Variable Income $150 Million per Quarter / $600 Million for Year Annual Variable Net Investment • Alternative Investments Income ($ Millions) – Corporate Joint Ventures – Hedge Funds $2,100 $1,800 • Real Estate Development Joint Ventures and Funds $1,500 $1,200 • Prepayments – Corporate Bond $900 Prepayments $600 – Commercial Mortgage $300 Prepayments $0 • Securities Lending 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E*2009P *Mid-point of 2008E range between $700 - $810 million 8
    9. Securities Lending Has Declined Securities Lending • Lower demand for securities Balances lending ($ Billions) $50 • Current balance is $26.8 billion $45 as of 11/30/08 $40 $35 • $15.8 billion on open (including $30 $15.0 billion of Treasury and $25 Agency securities) $20 $15 • Sufficient liquidity to facilitate $10 further reduction $5 $0 12/31/07 6/30/08 9/30/08 10/28/08 11/30/08 9
    10. Alternative Investments Impacted by Current Markets Alternative Investments • Buy-out and Hedge Funds $6.2 Billion* – Buy-out funds unable to 20% generate exits – Hedge fund returns impacted by equity market 53% declines, credit spread widening and delevering 27% • Other CJV includes Mezzanine, Distress, Buy-Out Funds Hedge Funds Other CJV Infrastructure, Energy & Timber Funds *Market value as of 9/30/08 10
    11. 08 Portfolio Overview
    12. MetLife Investments $305.2 Billion of Managed Assets* • Total Portfolio: ᅳ Diversified portfolio across many sectors 3.2% 34.9% 3.6% • Liability Driven: 4.6% ᅳ Asset-liability management 5.4% • Team Investment Approach: 7.5% ᅳ 600+ investment and support 24.8% professionals 16.0% • Risk Management: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds US Treasury/Agency ᅳ Part of our culture Structured Finance Below Investment Grade Credit Commercial and Agricultural Mortgages Real Estate Equity Cash and Short-Term Corporate Equity *Market value as of 9/30/08 12
    13. Proactively Repositioned Portfolio MetLife Portfolio Allocation Trend September 30, 2007 September 30, 2008 U.S. Treasury/Agency 6.9% 5.4% Structured Finance Residential MBS (RMBS) 18.2% 15.4% Commercial MBS (CMBS) 6.1% 5.2% Asset Backed Securities (ABS) 3.6% 4.2% Total Structured Finance 27.9% 24.8% Credit 'A' or Better Corporates 20.9% 21.2% 'BBB' Corporates 15.0% 13.6% Below Invest. Grade Credit 5.7% 4.6% Total Credit 41.6% 39.4% Real Estate Commercial Mortgages 10.6% 12.0% Agricultural Mortgages 3.2% 4.1% Real Estate Equity 3.2% 3.6% Total Real Estate 17.0% 19.7% Corporate Equity 3.6% 3.2% Cash & Short-Term 3.0% 7.5% Total Managed Assets 100.0% 100.0% $318.8 $305.2 Market Value of Managed Assets ($ Billions) 13
    14. High Quality Structured Finance Portfolio Structured Finance • $75.7 billion* as a % of Managed Assets 27.9% • Collateral characteristics 24.8% 3.6% and tranche selection is 4.2% 6.1% critical 5.2% • Less than $200 million of 18.2% 15.4% below investment grade structured finance 09/30/07 09/30/08 $75.7B $88.8B RMBS CMBS ABS *Market value as of 9/30/08 14
    15. MetLife RMBS Holdings Positioned Conservatively Non-Agency Prime RMBS • $10.1 billion* Statistics MetLife* Market** • 99.3% AAA rated Hybrid ARMs 4% 57% Loan-to-Value 66% 69% • 41% Super Senior Credit Enhancement 6.2% 4.6% • 96% Fixed Rate is key *Market value as of 9/30/2008 **Source: Hybrid ARMs (2003-2007): UBS AG; Loan-to-Value (2003-2007): J.P.Morgan; Credit Enhancement (2005-2007): Fitch Ratings 15
    16. Non-Agency Prime RMBS MetLife versus Market Better collateral results in better performance Credit Enhancement & Delinquencies 7% 6% 60+DQ or C/E Level 5% Market C/E* 4% 3% Market 60+ DQ 2% 1% 0% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 Loan Age in Months *Credit Enhancement as of 9/30/08 Source: Intex; Data as of 9/30/08; Delinquencies weighted by Loan Age, 05-07 16
    17. Non-Agency Prime RMBS MetLife versus Market Better collateral results in better performance Credit Enhancement & Delinquencies 7% MET C/E* 6% 60+DQ or C/E Level 5% Market C/E* 4% 3% Market 60+ DQ 2% MET 60+ DQ 1% 0% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 Loan Age in Months *Credit Enhancement as of 9/30/08 Source: Intex; Data as of 9/30/08; Delinquencies weighted by Loan Age, 05-07 17
    18. MetLife RMBS Holdings Positioned Conservatively Alt-A • $4.4 billion* MetLife* Market** • 95% AAA or AA rated Option ARMs 0% 21% • 83% Super Senior Hybrid ARMs 13% 43% Fixed Rate 87% 36% • 92.4% of 2006-2007 vintages are Super Loan-to-Value 70% 75% Senior Credit Enhancement 11.9% 7.4% • No Option ARMs and 87% Fixed Rate is key *Market value as of 9/30/2008 **Source: Option ARMs (2003-2007): UBS AG; Fixed Rate & Hybrid ARMs (2003-2007): UBS AG; Loan-to-Value (2003-2007): J.P.Morgan; Credit Enhancement (2005-2007): Fitch Ratings 18
    19. Alt-A RMBS MetLife versus Market Better collateral results in better performance Credit Enhancement & Delinquencies 14% 12% Market 60+ DQ 60+DQ or C/E Level 10% Market C/E* 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 Loan Age in Months *Credit Enhancement as of 9/30/08 Source: Intex; Data as of 9/30/08; Delinquencies weighted by Loan Age, 05-07 19
    20. Alt-A RMBS MetLife versus Market Better collateral results in better performance Credit Enhancement & Delinquencies 14% MET C/E* 12% Market 60+ DQ 60+DQ or C/E Level 10% Market C/E* 8% 6% MET 60+ DQ 4% 2% 0% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 Loan Age in Months *Credit Enhancement as of 9/30/08 Source: Intex; Data as of 9/30/08; Delinquencies weighted by Loan Age, 05-07 20
    21. MetLife Sub-Prime Holdings Reduced Early Sub-Prime Holdings Sub-Prime MBS by Vintage* ($ Millions) • $1.4 billion* $700 $600 • Approximately 80% $500 are vintage years $400 2005 or earlier $300 $200 • MetLife credit $100 enhancement is $0 35.1% vs. 24.0% 2004 & Prior 2005 2006 2007 Total for ABX 661 176 288 128 69 AAA AA 685 403 210 60 12 • 71.8% Fixed Rate 20 20 0 0 0 A 42 38 3 1 0 BBB vs. 24.2% for ABX 9 Below BBB 3 0 6 0 is key 1,417 640 501 195 81 Total *Market value and ratings as of 9/30/2008 21
    22. Sub-Prime MBS MetLife versus Market Better collateral results in better performance Credit Enhancement & Delinquencies 40% 35% Market 60+ DQ 30% 25% ABX C/E* 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 Loan Age in Months *Credit Enhancement as of 9/30/08 Source: Intex 22
    23. Sub-Prime MBS MetLife versus Market Better collateral results in better performance Credit Enhancement & Delinquencies 40% MET C/E* 35% Market 60+ DQ 30% 25% ABX C/E* 20% 15% MET 60+ DQ 10% 5% 0% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 Loan Age in Months *Credit Enhancement as of 9/30/08 Source: Intex 23
    24. MetLife’s CMBS Positioned for Downturn CMBS Holdings by Type • $15.9 billion* 92% • 24% average credit enhancement for conduits • Can withstand 3 times historical maximum loss • No exposure to CMBX • Only $139 million in CRE CDOs 1% 1% 6% Conduit Single Asset/Large Loan CRE CDO Other *Market value as of 9/30/08 24
    25. Seasoned, High Quality CMBS Holdings CMBS Holdings by Vintage* • 78% from 2005 and ($ Millions) 10,000 prior vintages vs. 9,000 50% of the market 8,000 7,000 6,000 • 90% of 2006-2007 5,000 4,000 vintages are Super 3,000 Senior and Senior 2,000 1,000 AAA 0 2004 and 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total Prior 14,316 7,856 3,260 2,101 1,098 1 AAA AA 886 619 137 85 45 0 416 326 29 29 32 A 0 157 61 3 84 9 BBB 0 130 Below BBB 99 24 7 0 0 15,905 8,961 3,453 2,306 1,184 Total 1 *Market value as of 9/30/08 25
    26. CMBS Price Does Not Convey Full Story MetLife Market Bond* Bond* Price $66 $67 • Fundamental analysis Senior Senior Rating of bond characteristics AAA AAA is key Vintage 2007 2007 Interest Only Loans 39.2% 80.4% • Focus on the details Loans on Servicer 6.4% 49.9% Watch List MetLife’s Projections: Expected Coverage 4.8x 1.7x *As of 10/31/08 26
    27. Reduced Risk in Credit Portfolio Corporate Credit as a % of Managed Assets • $120.3 billion* 41.6% 39.4% 5.7% 4.6% • Decreased ‘BBB’ and Below Investment Grade exposure 15.0% 13.6% • Approximately 29% private placements 21.2% 20.9% 9/30/2007 9/30/2008 $120.3B $132.6B AAA/AA/A BBB Below Inv Grade *Market value as of 9/30/08 27
    28. Positioned for Recession • Began to reposition Vulnerable Assets Sold portfolio for potential Book Value recession in 2007 Sector ($ Millions) Investment Grade $4,093 • Actively identified, then sold vulnerable securities, Below Investment Grade $2,620 loans and mortgages • Since October 2007, sold Commercial Mortgages $524 $7.2 billion of assets we believed were vulnerable Total $7,237 in a recession 28
    29. Defensively Positioned Below Investment Grade Credit Below Investment Grade Credit by • $13.9 billion* Rating* 62% • Reduced below investment grade credit from 5.7%** to 4.6%* • Emphasize loss avoidance over yield maximization 5% • Higher allocation to BB rated credits 33% BB B CCC and Below * Market value as of 9/30/08 **Market value as of 9/30/07 29
    30. High Quality Real Estate and Agricultural Investments Real Estate & • Focus primarily on Class Agricultural Investments as a % of Managed Assets* ‘A’ properties in primary 19.7% markets 17.0% 3.6% • Loan to Value (LTV) 3.2% 4.1% 3.2% – 57% Commercial Mortgage Average LTV 10.6% 12.0% – 48% Agricultural Mortgage Average LTV 9/30/2007 9/30/2008 • Diversified Real Estate $59.8B $54.1B equity portfolio Real Estate Equity Agricultural Mortgages Commercial Mortgages *Market value as of 9/30/08 30
    31. Commercial Mortgage Portfolio Defensively Positioned MetLife LTV vs. Market LTV at Loan Origination • $35.9 billion* 80% • Decreased portfolio CMBS LTV** 75% LTV as market became 70% more aggressive 70% Average Loan to Value MetLife LTV 66% 65% 65% 63% • Underwritten to 62% 61% sustainable values and 60% property incomes 55% 55% • Only $2 million 50% delinquent 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD * Book value as of 9/30/08 **Source: Moody’s Investors Service 31
    32. Positioned to Withstand Value Declines Commercial Mortgage Portfolio • Significantly different LTV fundamentals vs. early 2% 6% 1990s • On-going pruning of higher risk loans 26% • Positioned to withstand 40% property value declines 66% • Less than 2% of portfolio has LTV greater than 80% Below 65% LTV 65% to 75% LTV 75-80% LTV Above 80% LTV As of 9/30/08 32
    33. 08 Unrealized Loss
    34. Unrealized Losses Increased Due to Spread Widening $16.7 Billion Fixed Maturity Unrealized Losses by Rating • $12.2 billion fixed maturity net unrealized loss as of 9/30/08 – $16.7 billion gross unrealized 69% loss – $4.5 billion gross unrealized gain 19% • Approximately 88% fixed maturity gross unrealized 6% losses rated Investment Grade 1% 5% AAA/AA/A BBB BB B CCC and Lower 34
    35. Spreads Have Increased Dramatically Market Spreads • Spreads on risk sectors have 700 Custom index spread* increased since 600 9/30/08 Spreads over Treasuries 500 • Barclays Aggregate increased 36% 400 300 • Barclays BBB Credit increased 75% 200 • Barclays CMBS 100 increased 170% 0 09/30/08 10/15/08 10/31/08 11/14/08 11/30/08 *Source: Custom index based on actual 9/30/08 fixed maturity allocations using option adjusted spreads from Barclays US Agency, Barclays US 35 Treasury, Barclays US MBS, Barclays US CMBS, Barclays US ABS, Barclays US Credit, Barclays US High Yield indices
    36. Net Unrealized Loss Has Also Increased Market Spreads and MetLife’s Net Unrealized Loss** • Net unrealized loss increased Net unrealized losses 30,000 700 Custom index spread* – $12.2 billion at 600 9/30/08 25,000 – Approximately $26.9 500 Spreads over Treasuries 20,000 Net Unrealized Loss billion at 11/30/08 400 15,000 • 63% less than 3 300 months 10,000 200 • 84% Investment Grade 5,000 100 • $2.8 billion greater than 20% and 6 months 0 0 09/30/08 10/15/08 10/31/08 11/14/08 11/30/08 *Source: Custom index based on actual 9/30/08 fixed maturity allocations using option adjusted spreads from Barclays US Agency, Barclays US Treasury, Barclays US MBS, Barclays US CMBS, Barclays US ABS, Barclays US Credit, Barclays US High Yield indices 36 ** MetLife net unrealized loss based on November month-end pricing and management estimates
    37. Loss Recognition • Asset Liability Matching – We buy assets to match our liabilities – Hold the vast majority to maturity • Robust process to identify credit impairments – Creditworthiness of these securities has not fundamentally changed since 9/30/08 – $200 - $300 million estimated Q408 after-tax impairments 37
    38. Summary • Diversified portfolio across fixed income, real estate, agricultural and equity sectors • Focus on risk management, underwriting and proactive portfolio management • Defensively positioned for current environment 38
    39. 39
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