metlife Investor Day 2008 Investments - Presentation Transcript
08
Steven A. Kandarian
Executive Vice President &
Chief Investment Officer
Defensively Positioned for Current Environment
• Identified weaknesses in certain asset sectors
early and took action
• Repositioned portfolio for recession beginning
in 2007
• Reduced balance sheet leverage and
increased liquidity
2
08
Market Overview
2009 Market View and Themes
Economy Global recession
Inflation Contained, talk of deflation
Fed Rates remain low
Credit Fundamentals deteriorate
Real Estate Fundamentals deteriorate
Spreads Well ahead of fundamentals
4
High Yield Spreads and Default Rates Delinked
The Credit Cycle
18% 2000
16% Moody's U.S. Speculative Grade Default Rates 1750
Trailing 12-month Default Rate (%)
Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield
14%
Spread over Treasuries
1500
12%
1250
(bps)
10%
1000
8%
750
6%
500
4%
250
2%
0
0%
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Spreads through 11/30/08; Default Rate through 10/31/08 6
08
Portfolio Income
2009 Plan Variable Income
$150 Million per Quarter / $600 Million for Year
Annual Variable Net Investment
• Alternative Investments Income ($ Millions)
– Corporate Joint Ventures
– Hedge Funds $2,100
$1,800
• Real Estate Development
Joint Ventures and Funds $1,500
$1,200
• Prepayments
– Corporate Bond $900
Prepayments $600
– Commercial Mortgage
$300
Prepayments
$0
• Securities Lending 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E*2009P
*Mid-point of 2008E range between $700 - $810 million
8
Securities Lending Has Declined
Securities Lending
• Lower demand for securities Balances
lending ($ Billions)
$50
• Current balance is $26.8 billion $45
as of 11/30/08 $40
$35
• $15.8 billion on open (including $30
$15.0 billion of Treasury and $25
Agency securities) $20
$15
• Sufficient liquidity to facilitate $10
further reduction $5
$0
12/31/07 6/30/08 9/30/08 10/28/08 11/30/08
9
Alternative Investments Impacted
by Current Markets
Alternative Investments
• Buy-out and Hedge Funds $6.2 Billion*
– Buy-out funds unable to 20%
generate exits
– Hedge fund returns
impacted by equity market
53%
declines, credit spread
widening and delevering 27%
• Other CJV includes
Mezzanine, Distress,
Buy-Out Funds Hedge Funds Other CJV
Infrastructure, Energy &
Timber Funds
*Market value as of 9/30/08
10
08
Portfolio Overview
MetLife Investments
$305.2 Billion of Managed Assets*
• Total Portfolio:
ᅳ Diversified portfolio across
many sectors 3.2%
34.9%
3.6%
• Liability Driven: 4.6%
ᅳ Asset-liability management
5.4%
• Team Investment
Approach: 7.5%
ᅳ 600+ investment and support 24.8%
professionals 16.0%
• Risk Management: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds US Treasury/Agency
ᅳ Part of our culture Structured Finance Below Investment Grade Credit
Commercial and Agricultural Mortgages Real Estate Equity
Cash and Short-Term Corporate Equity
*Market value as of 9/30/08
12
Proactively Repositioned Portfolio
MetLife Portfolio Allocation Trend September 30, 2007 September 30, 2008
U.S. Treasury/Agency 6.9% 5.4%
Structured Finance
Residential MBS (RMBS) 18.2% 15.4%
Commercial MBS (CMBS) 6.1% 5.2%
Asset Backed Securities (ABS) 3.6% 4.2%
Total Structured Finance 27.9% 24.8%
Credit
'A' or Better Corporates 20.9% 21.2%
'BBB' Corporates 15.0% 13.6%
Below Invest. Grade Credit 5.7% 4.6%
Total Credit 41.6% 39.4%
Real Estate
Commercial Mortgages 10.6% 12.0%
Agricultural Mortgages 3.2% 4.1%
Real Estate Equity 3.2% 3.6%
Total Real Estate 17.0% 19.7%
Corporate Equity 3.6% 3.2%
Cash & Short-Term 3.0% 7.5%
Total Managed Assets 100.0% 100.0%
$318.8 $305.2
Market Value of Managed Assets ($ Billions)
13
High Quality Structured Finance Portfolio
Structured Finance
• $75.7 billion* as a % of Managed Assets
27.9%
• Collateral characteristics 24.8%
3.6%
and tranche selection is 4.2%
6.1%
critical 5.2%
• Less than $200 million of
18.2% 15.4%
below investment grade
structured finance
09/30/07 09/30/08
$75.7B
$88.8B
RMBS CMBS ABS
*Market value as of 9/30/08
14
MetLife RMBS Holdings
Positioned Conservatively
Non-Agency Prime RMBS
• $10.1 billion*
Statistics MetLife* Market**
• 99.3% AAA rated Hybrid ARMs 4% 57%
Loan-to-Value 66% 69%
• 41% Super Senior
Credit Enhancement 6.2% 4.6%
• 96% Fixed Rate
is key
*Market value as of 9/30/2008
**Source: Hybrid ARMs (2003-2007): UBS AG; Loan-to-Value (2003-2007): J.P.Morgan; Credit Enhancement (2005-2007): Fitch Ratings
15
Non-Agency Prime RMBS
MetLife versus Market
Better collateral results in better performance
Credit Enhancement & Delinquencies
7%
6%
60+DQ or C/E Level
5% Market C/E*
4%
3%
Market 60+ DQ
2%
1%
0%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Loan Age in Months
*Credit Enhancement as of 9/30/08
Source: Intex; Data as of 9/30/08; Delinquencies weighted by Loan Age, 05-07
16
Non-Agency Prime RMBS
MetLife versus Market
Better collateral results in better performance
Credit Enhancement & Delinquencies
7%
MET C/E*
6%
60+DQ or C/E Level
5% Market C/E*
4%
3%
Market 60+ DQ
2%
MET 60+ DQ
1%
0%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Loan Age in Months
*Credit Enhancement as of 9/30/08
Source: Intex; Data as of 9/30/08; Delinquencies weighted by Loan Age, 05-07
17
MetLife RMBS Holdings
Positioned Conservatively
Alt-A
• $4.4 billion*
MetLife* Market**
• 95% AAA or AA rated
Option ARMs 0% 21%
• 83% Super Senior Hybrid ARMs 13% 43%
Fixed Rate 87% 36%
• 92.4% of 2006-2007
vintages are Super Loan-to-Value 70% 75%
Senior
Credit Enhancement 11.9% 7.4%
• No Option ARMs and
87% Fixed Rate is key
*Market value as of 9/30/2008
**Source: Option ARMs (2003-2007): UBS AG; Fixed Rate & Hybrid ARMs (2003-2007): UBS AG; Loan-to-Value (2003-2007): J.P.Morgan;
Credit Enhancement (2005-2007): Fitch Ratings
18
Alt-A RMBS
MetLife versus Market
Better collateral results in better performance
Credit Enhancement & Delinquencies
14%
12%
Market 60+ DQ
60+DQ or C/E Level
10%
Market C/E*
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Loan Age in Months
*Credit Enhancement as of 9/30/08
Source: Intex; Data as of 9/30/08; Delinquencies weighted by Loan Age, 05-07
19
Alt-A RMBS
MetLife versus Market
Better collateral results in better performance
Credit Enhancement & Delinquencies
14%
MET C/E*
12%
Market 60+ DQ
60+DQ or C/E Level
10%
Market C/E*
8%
6%
MET 60+ DQ
4%
2%
0%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Loan Age in Months
*Credit Enhancement as of 9/30/08
Source: Intex; Data as of 9/30/08; Delinquencies weighted by Loan Age, 05-07
20
MetLife Sub-Prime Holdings Reduced Early
Sub-Prime Holdings
Sub-Prime MBS by Vintage*
($ Millions)
• $1.4 billion* $700
$600
• Approximately 80% $500
are vintage years $400
2005 or earlier $300
$200
• MetLife credit
$100
enhancement is
$0
35.1% vs. 24.0% 2004 & Prior 2005 2006 2007
Total
for ABX 661
176 288 128 69
AAA
AA 685
403 210 60 12
• 71.8% Fixed Rate 20
20 0 0 0
A
42
38 3 1 0
BBB
vs. 24.2% for ABX 9
Below BBB 3 0 6 0
is key 1,417
640 501 195 81
Total
*Market value and ratings as of 9/30/2008
21
Sub-Prime MBS
MetLife versus Market
Better collateral results in better performance
Credit Enhancement & Delinquencies
40%
35%
Market 60+ DQ
30%
25%
ABX C/E*
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Loan Age in Months
*Credit Enhancement as of 9/30/08
Source: Intex
22
Sub-Prime MBS
MetLife versus Market
Better collateral results in better performance
Credit Enhancement & Delinquencies
40%
MET C/E*
35%
Market 60+ DQ
30%
25%
ABX C/E*
20%
15%
MET 60+ DQ
10%
5%
0%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Loan Age in Months
*Credit Enhancement as of 9/30/08
Source: Intex
23
MetLife’s CMBS Positioned for Downturn
CMBS Holdings by Type
• $15.9 billion* 92%
• 24% average credit
enhancement for conduits
• Can withstand 3 times
historical maximum loss
• No exposure to CMBX
• Only $139 million in CRE
CDOs 1% 1% 6%
Conduit
Single Asset/Large Loan
CRE CDO
Other
*Market value as of 9/30/08
24
Seasoned, High Quality CMBS Holdings
CMBS Holdings
by Vintage*
• 78% from 2005 and ($ Millions)
10,000
prior vintages vs. 9,000
50% of the market 8,000
7,000
6,000
• 90% of 2006-2007 5,000
4,000
vintages are Super 3,000
Senior and Senior 2,000
1,000
AAA 0
2004 and 2005 2006 2007 2008
Total
Prior
14,316
7,856 3,260 2,101 1,098 1
AAA
AA 886
619 137 85 45 0
416
326 29 29 32
A 0
157
61 3 84 9
BBB 0
130
Below BBB 99 24 7 0 0
15,905
8,961 3,453 2,306 1,184
Total 1
*Market value as of 9/30/08
25
CMBS
Price Does Not Convey Full Story
MetLife Market
Bond* Bond*
Price $66 $67
• Fundamental analysis Senior Senior
Rating
of bond characteristics AAA AAA
is key Vintage 2007 2007
Interest Only Loans 39.2% 80.4%
• Focus on the details
Loans on Servicer
6.4% 49.9%
Watch List
MetLife’s Projections:
Expected Coverage 4.8x 1.7x
*As of 10/31/08
26
Reduced Risk in Credit Portfolio
Corporate Credit
as a % of Managed Assets
• $120.3 billion* 41.6%
39.4%
5.7% 4.6%
• Decreased ‘BBB’ and Below
Investment Grade exposure 15.0% 13.6%
• Approximately 29% private
placements 21.2%
20.9%
9/30/2007 9/30/2008
$120.3B
$132.6B
AAA/AA/A BBB
Below Inv Grade
*Market value as of 9/30/08
27
Positioned for Recession
• Began to reposition Vulnerable Assets Sold
portfolio for potential Book Value
recession in 2007 Sector ($ Millions)
Investment Grade $4,093
• Actively identified, then
sold vulnerable securities,
Below Investment Grade $2,620
loans and mortgages
• Since October 2007, sold Commercial Mortgages $524
$7.2 billion of assets we
believed were vulnerable Total $7,237
in a recession
28
Defensively Positioned Below Investment
Grade Credit
Below Investment Grade Credit by
• $13.9 billion* Rating*
62%
• Reduced below
investment grade credit
from 5.7%** to 4.6%*
• Emphasize loss
avoidance over yield
maximization
5%
• Higher allocation to
BB rated credits
33%
BB B CCC and Below
* Market value as of 9/30/08
**Market value as of 9/30/07
29
High Quality Real Estate and
Agricultural Investments
Real Estate &
• Focus primarily on Class Agricultural Investments
as a % of Managed Assets*
‘A’ properties in primary
19.7%
markets
17.0% 3.6%
• Loan to Value (LTV) 3.2%
4.1%
3.2%
– 57% Commercial Mortgage
Average LTV
10.6% 12.0%
– 48% Agricultural Mortgage
Average LTV
9/30/2007 9/30/2008
• Diversified Real Estate $59.8B
$54.1B
equity portfolio Real Estate Equity
Agricultural Mortgages
Commercial Mortgages
*Market value as of 9/30/08
30
Commercial Mortgage Portfolio
Defensively Positioned
MetLife LTV vs. Market LTV at
Loan Origination
• $35.9 billion*
80%
• Decreased portfolio CMBS LTV**
75%
LTV as market became
70%
more aggressive 70%
Average Loan to Value
MetLife LTV
66%
65%
65% 63%
• Underwritten to 62%
61%
sustainable values and 60%
property incomes 55%
55%
• Only $2 million 50%
delinquent 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
YTD
* Book value as of 9/30/08
**Source: Moody’s Investors Service
31
Positioned to Withstand Value Declines
Commercial Mortgage Portfolio
• Significantly different LTV
fundamentals vs. early 2%
6%
1990s
• On-going pruning of higher
risk loans
26%
• Positioned to withstand
40% property value
declines 66%
• Less than 2% of portfolio
has LTV greater than 80% Below 65% LTV 65% to 75% LTV
75-80% LTV Above 80% LTV
As of 9/30/08
32
08
Unrealized Loss
Unrealized Losses Increased Due to
Spread Widening
$16.7 Billion Fixed Maturity
Unrealized Losses by Rating
• $12.2 billion fixed maturity net
unrealized loss as of 9/30/08
– $16.7 billion gross unrealized 69%
loss
– $4.5 billion gross unrealized gain
19%
• Approximately 88% fixed
maturity gross unrealized
6%
losses rated Investment Grade 1% 5%
AAA/AA/A BBB BB B CCC and Lower
34
Spreads Have Increased Dramatically
Market Spreads
• Spreads on risk
sectors have 700
Custom index spread*
increased since
600
9/30/08
Spreads over Treasuries
500
• Barclays Aggregate
increased 36% 400
300
• Barclays BBB Credit
increased 75% 200
• Barclays CMBS 100
increased 170% 0
09/30/08 10/15/08 10/31/08 11/14/08 11/30/08
*Source: Custom index based on actual 9/30/08 fixed maturity allocations using option adjusted spreads from Barclays US Agency, Barclays US
35
Treasury, Barclays US MBS, Barclays US CMBS, Barclays US ABS, Barclays US Credit, Barclays US High Yield indices
Net Unrealized Loss Has Also Increased
Market Spreads and
MetLife’s Net Unrealized Loss**
• Net unrealized loss
increased Net unrealized losses
30,000 700
Custom index spread*
– $12.2 billion at
600
9/30/08 25,000
– Approximately $26.9 500
Spreads over Treasuries
20,000
Net Unrealized Loss
billion at 11/30/08 400
15,000
• 63% less than 3 300
months 10,000
200
• 84% Investment Grade
5,000
100
• $2.8 billion greater than
20% and 6 months 0 0
09/30/08 10/15/08 10/31/08 11/14/08 11/30/08
*Source: Custom index based on actual 9/30/08 fixed
maturity allocations using option adjusted spreads from
Barclays US Agency, Barclays US Treasury, Barclays US
MBS, Barclays US CMBS, Barclays US ABS, Barclays US
Credit, Barclays US High Yield indices
36
** MetLife net unrealized loss based on November month-end pricing and management estimates
Loss Recognition
• Asset Liability Matching
– We buy assets to match our liabilities
– Hold the vast majority to maturity
• Robust process to identify credit impairments
– Creditworthiness of these securities has not
fundamentally changed since 9/30/08
– $200 - $300 million estimated Q408 after-tax
impairments
37
Summary
• Diversified portfolio across fixed income, real
estate, agricultural and equity sectors
• Focus on risk management, underwriting and
proactive portfolio management
• Defensively positioned for current environment
38
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