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    monsanto 11-08-07-5_v2 monsanto 11-08-07-5_v2 Presentation Transcript

    • ROBB FRALEY, PH.D. CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER MONSANTO BIENNIAL U.S. INVESTOR DAY NOVEMBER 8, 2007 1
    • OVERVIEW Pipeline Leverages Power of Breeding and Biotech for Current Commercial Growth and New Platforms in Next Decade Pipeline Priorities Through 2012 BREEDING Continue to Drive Breeding Gains Across Crop Platforms ► Continue corn breeding momentum MONSANTO’S R&D PIPELINE ► Accelerate soybean breeding ► Elevate cotton and vegetable DISCOVERY PHASE I PHASE II R&D PHASE: PHASE III PHASE IV LAUNCH breeding BREEDING BIOTECHNOLOGY COMMERCIAL IT PLATFORM GERMPLASM G ANALYTICS MARKERS GENOMICS SEED ELITE Germplasm Deliver Value in Established Trait SOLD TO FARMERS R Pipeline ► Launch Roundup RReady2Yield as BIOTECHNOLOGY soybean pipeline platform Unlock Opportunity in Yield and Stress Through BASF Collaboration ► Deliver industry’s first pure yield- and-stress traits ► Change trait-value opportunity with “product families” 2
    • CORN BREEDING Early Yield Trial Results Continue to Reinforce Yield Advantage of DEKALB Seed in U.S. 2007 PRELIMINARY U.S. COMPETITIVE NEW: CORN YIELD COMPARISON: DEKALB DEKALB U.S. GEOGRAPHY: 210 (APPROXIMATE DIFFERENCES) COMPETITORS Grow footprint OBJECTIVE: 205 2007 PERFORMANCE UPDATE 204 BUSHELS/ACRE • In > 9,900 comparisons, 200 Monsanto outyields 199 competitive best by 195 196 8.3 bu/ac 195 190 • In 110-day RM, 192 191 191 191 190 Monsanto’s lead is 185 13 bu/ac, extended from 11.7 bu/ac in 2006 180 181 Source: 2007 Monsanto and third party trials 175 through October 24, 2007. Weighted average, calculated to 170 15% moisture. DEKALB products are compared 100 RM 105 RM 110 RM 115 RM Overall with competitive RELATIVE MATURITIES (DAYS)► products that contain >500 >1,400 >4,000 >3,700 >9,900 COMPARISONS: similar crop protection traits. APPROXIMATE BU/AC 10 4.5 13 4 8 ADVANTAGE: 3
    • CORN BREEDING Like National Brands, New ASI Hybrids Have Substantial Yield Advantage Over Competitive Offerings 2007 PRELIMINARY U.S. COMPETITIVE NEW: CORN YIELD COMPARISON: ASI ASI 210 (APPROXIMATE DIFFERENCES) U.S. GEOGRAPHY: COMPETITORS 205 Grow footprint OBJECTIVE: 2007 PERFORMANCE UPDATE 203 203 200 BUSHELS/ACRE • Overall, 2007 yield 195 197 comparisons showing 7.5 bu/ac advantage for 190 193 192 ASI over competitive best 190 185 184 Source: 2007 Monsanto 183 trials through October 180 24, 2007. 175 170 165 166 163 160 95RM 100 RM 105 RM 110 RM 115 RM RELATIVE MATURITIES (DAYS)► 54 128 87 147 158 LOCATIONS: APPROXIMATE BU/AC 3.5 1 6.5 11.5 10.5 ADVANTAGE: 4
    • CORN BREEDING Again in 2007, Best Combination of Germplasm and Traits in Monsanto Brands Delivers Best Yield PRELIMINARY TOTAL SEED & TRAIT YIELD PERFORMANCE IN 2007 NEW: Seed & Trait: Head-to-Head AVE. BUSHELS PER ACRE 210 13 210.3 206 BU/AC 202 ADVANTAGE 198 197.0 194 190 MONSANTO Pioneer ® Competitive Hybrids DEKALB, ASI and Performance in Key Corn Belt States with Herculex® Corn States Hybrids XTRA and Roundup with YieldGard VT NE IA IL Ready Corn 2 Triple >70 >400 900 1,949 comparisons in 13 states: Monsanto’s Comparisons: seed, protected by YieldGard VT Triple, 210 214 219 Monsanto outperformed the best competitive seed-and- Brands: bu/ac bu/ac bu/ac trait package by >13 bu/ac on average 193 200 204 Competitive Brand: bu/ac bu/ac bu/ac 5
    • SOYBEAN BREEDING Coming Off 2007 Share Gain, Initial Soybean Yield Performance Continues to Reinforce Breeding Leadership 2007 PRELIMINARY U.S. COMPETITIVE NEW: SOYBEAN YIELD COMPARISON: ASGROW ASGROW (APPROXIMATE DIFFERENCES) COMPETITORS 60 U.S. GEOGRAPHY: 58 Grow footprint OBJECTIVE: 58 57 56 BUSHELS/ACRE 2007 PERFORMANCE UPDATE 56 54 55 • Yield data from 2007 indicates continued yield 52 52 advantage for national 51 50 brands versus best-in- 51 class competitors 49 48 49 46 47 44 44 43 42 40 O 1 2 3 4 5 RELATIVE MATURITIES► Source: 2007 Monsanto and >300 >400 >3,500 >3,400 >1,000 >30 COMPARISONS: third party trials through October 30, 2007. Asgrow APPROXIMATE BU/AC products are compared to 1 1.5 1 1.5 2 (1) competitive products. ADVANTAGE: 6
    • R&D PIPELINE Yield and Stress Collaboration Resets Pipeline Structure and Approach to Value Considerations PHASE 3 DISCOVERY PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 4 Advanced Gene/Trait Identification Proof of Concept Early Development Pre-Launch Development 24 TO 48 MONTHS 12 TO 24 MONTHS 12 TO 24 MONTHS 12 TO 24 MONTHS 12 TO 36 MONTHS JOINT-FUNDED DEVELOPMENT Independent Discovery Program 2nd- Generation COLLABORATION YIELD & STRESS drought-tolerant Grain yield Drought-tolerant corn corn Environmental stress Higher-yielding 2nd-Generation tolerance canola higher-yielding Independent Higher-yielding soybeans Discovery soybeans Drought-tolerant Program Higher-yielding corn cotton Yield increase Nitrogen- Environmental stress utilization corn tolerance Insect-protected Pest control Roundup Herbicide tolerance Soybean Roundup RReady2Yield Disease resistance nematode- RReady2Yield soybeans High-oil soybeans resistance Lipid enhancements Vistive III soybeans soybeans Improved-protein (Increased oil, improved Dicamba-tolerant Dicamba-tolerant Omega-3 soybeans fatty-acid balance) cotton soybeans soybeans Mavera II high-value Protein enhancements Cotton lygus YieldGard VT PRO Vistive II soybeans (Improved amino-acid control Extrax Corn soybeans Bollgard III balance) Processing YieldGard System1 Carbohydrate Roundup rootworm III RReady2Yield canola enhancements Hybridization system Bioactive compounds for corn 1. Extrax is a part of the Renessen pipeline. Renessen is a Monsanto/Cargill joint venture. Mavera™ is a trademark of Renessen 7
    • R&D PIPELINE Strong Pipeline Value Reflects Commercial Opportunity in Latter-Stage Projects and Emerging Value in Yield and Stress DISCOVERY PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3 PHASE 4 Drought- HIGH Tolerant FAMILY TRAITS► Family COLLABORATION CORN: YIELD & STRESS Nitrogen- BROAD-ACRE HIGH Utilization FAMILY TRAITS► YIELD Family Broad-Acre, MEGA Higher-Yielding FAMILY TRAITS► Family SOYBEANS: Broad-Acre, BROAD-ACRE HIGH Higher-Yielding FAMILY TRAITS► YIELD Family Insect- 2020 VALUE RANGES: protected Roundup Omega-3 RR2Y RReady2Yield soybeans soybeans soybeans MEGA HIGH Bollgard III $300M-$500M >$1BM High-oil YieldGard Dicamba- soybeans tolerant VT PRO soybeans corn MID LOW Vistive III <$150M $150M-$300M Improved- Roundup protein RReady2Yield Corn Soybeans Cotton Canola canola soybeans 8
    • R&D PIPELINE Drought, Nitrogen Use and Intrinsic Yield Boosts Come Together In Broad-Acre Yield Value Opportunity for Corn VALUE ANALYSIS DROUGHT-TOLERANT FAMILY NEW: INTRODUCTION HORIZON Upgrade traits come on line before lead trait reaches DROUGHT- ACREAGE► targeted goal► TOLERANT NITROGEN- FAMILY UTILIZATION FAMILY HIGHER- YIELDING +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 FAMILY WINDOW FOR YEARS► 2ND-GEN UPGRADE LEAD DROUGHT UPGRADE 1 With continuing Sources of value discovery, can overlap, Proof of Expansion to additional, depending on commercial broad-acre FOCUS: FOCUS: unassigned value functionality; value insurance remains for more overlap broad-acre yield between drought U.S. dryland Applicability GEOGRAPHY: category and yield across Corn GEOGRAPHY: 7-10 M ACRE GOAL1: Belt 1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at Monsanto's 55 M ACRE GOAL1: current 2007 market share in respective crops 9
    • R&D PIPELINE Drought Focuses First On Consistent Water Shortage Acres, Before Expanding to Broad-Acre Applicability SEGMENTED VALUE OPPORTUNITY ACROSS MARKETS: U.S. EXAMPLE R&D Pipeline Drought-Tolerant Corn Family HIT Project Phase 2 High annual precipitation PROJECT CONCEPT: Drought-tolerance family aimed at providing consistent yield and buffering against effects of water Low annual limitations Source: Spatial Climate Analysis precipitation Service, Oregon State University VALUE: LAUNCH-COUNTRY 55M ACRES1: IRRIGATED WESTERN DRYLAND STABILITY $300-$500M 2020 VALUE2: 8-12% of U.S. acres 9-12% of U.S. acres 55-65% of U.S. acres 14-18” precipitation 14-18” precipitation 17-19” precipitation SOURCES OF VALUE: Irrigated Non-irrigated Non-irrigated Improved yield Targeting 8-10% yield Value: Reducing the Value: Improved yields Value: Improved yields 1 improvement in water-stress variable costs of annually when moisture is less environments irrigation than optimal Water substitution Initial trait commercial 2 Variable costs in pumped launch will focus on irrigation of >$100/ acre this segment, proving applicability in 1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at consistent water Monsanto's current 2007 market share in respective crops 2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country shortage in year 2020 10
    • R&D PIPELINE In Second Year of Off-Season Testing, Drought Lead Consistently Delivered Yield Advantages Under Water Stress LATIN AMERICA: YIELD IMPROVEMENT OF NEW: R&D Pipeline LEAD EVENT UNDER DROUGHT STRESS Drought-Tolerant Corn Family Percent yield difference vs. control HIT Project Phase 2 7.3% 10.5% 10.9% 23.2% 9.0% 7.6% 14 PROJECT CONCEPT: YIELD DIFFERENCE 12 Drought-tolerance family aimed at 10 providing consistent yield and (BU/ACRE) buffering against effects of water 8 limitations 6 NOT TESTED NOT TESTED VALUE: 4 LAUNCH-COUNTRY 55M ACRES1: 2 $300-$500M 2020 VALUE2: 0 2006 2004 2005 2006/07 SOURCES OF VALUE: LAS U.S. U.S. U.S. Improved yield Hybrid 1: 2004, 4 locs; 2005 5 locs; 2006, 1 loc (20 reps) Targeting 8-10% yield 1 improvement in water-stress Hybrid 2: 2004, not tested; 2005, 5 locs, 2006, 3 locs, LAS 2006 3 locs (20 reps) environments Water substitution In second-year South American trials, lead drought gene 2 Variable costs in pumped tested in variable environmental conditions across irrigation of >$100/ acre 3 locations • Yield benefit of up to 12 bu/ac in water-stress conditions 1. Acre opportunity reflects 2. 2020 value reflects gross acres where technology fits sales opportunity in launch at Monsanto's current 2007 country in year 2020 market share in respective crops 11
    • R&D PIPELINE Second-Generation Drought-Tolerant Corn Continues to Deliver Consistent Performance Under Drought Conditions EARLY RESULTS ON SECOND- NEW: R&D Pipeline GENERATION DROUGHT-TOLERANT CORN Drought-Tolerant Corn Family Lead gene increases HIT Project Phase 1 photosynthesis and water relations, suggesting PROJECT CONCEPT: improved source Drought-tolerance family performance under aimed at providing drought consistent yield and buffering against effects of Increased pollination water limitations success under flowering stress observed PROJECT UPDATE: • Second-generation lead CONTROL WITH GENE has been in field testing for last 3 years • Consistent yield benefits observed under drought stress CONTROL WITH GENE 12
    • R&D PIPELINE Broad-Acre, Higher-Yielding Corn Focused on Relative Yield Gains, Rather Than Acreage Expansion BROAD-ACRE, HIGHER-YIELDING FAMILY NEW: R&D Pipeline INTRODUCTION HORIZON Broad-Acre, Higher-Yielding Corn Family Phase 2 LEAD STATUS: Upgrade traits PROJECT CONCEPT: target same acres with incremental Broad-acre, higher-yielding corn ACREAGE► aimed at boosting intrinsic yield yield► potential of corn hybrids through insertion of key genes VALUE: LAUNCH-COUNTRY 55M ACRES1: >$1B 2020 VALUE2: +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 WINDOW FOR YEARS► SOURCES OF VALUE: 2ND-GEN UPGRADE Improved yield 1 Targeting incremental yield to LEAD HIGHER-YIELD UPGRADE 1 U.S. average of 150 bu/ac Boost intrinsic Incremental FOCUS: yield per acre yield over lead FOCUS: 1. Acre opportunity reflects trait acres where technology U.S. broad-acre GEOGRAPHY: fits at Monsanto's current U.S. broad-acre 2007 market share in GEOGRAPHY: 55 M ACRE GOAL: respective crops 55 M ACRE GOAL: 2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country in year 2020 13
    • R&D PIPELINE Broad-Acre, Higher-Yielding Soybeans Combine Benefits of Intrinsic Yield Gains and Water-Use Efficiency BROAD-ACRE, HIGHER-YIELDING FAMILY NEW: INTRODUCTION HORIZON R&D Pipeline Higher-Yielding Soybeans Family Upgrade traits target same acres Phase 2 LEAD STATUS: ACREAGE► with incremental PROJECT CONCEPT: yield► Higher-yielding soybeans aimed at boosting intrinsic yield potential of soybeans through insertion of key genes VALUE: +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 LAUNCH-COUNTRY YEARS► 45M WINDOW FOR ACRES1: 2ND-GEN UPGRADE $300-$500M 2020 VALUE2: LEAD HIGHER-YIELD UPGRADE 1 SOURCES OF VALUE: Boost intrinsic Incremental yield FOCUS: FOCUS: yield per acre over lead trait Improved yield U.S. broad-acre U.S. broad-acre GEOGRAPHY: GEOGRAPHY: 1 Targeting incremental yield to U.S. average of 42 bu/ac 45 M 45 M ACRE GOAL: ACRE GOAL: 1. Acre opportunity reflects Discovery In Soybean Broad-Acre Yield acres where technology fits at Monsanto's current DISCOVERY: 2007 market share in Discovery investigates intrinsic respective crops yield and water use efficiency INTRINSIC 2. 2020 value reflects gross YIELD A trait offering benefits to all sales opportunity in launch country in year 2020 WATER- acres from water utilization is a UTILIZATION broad-acre yield trait 14
    • R&D PIPELINE First Round of Phase 2 Testing Continues to Validate Commercial-Track Events for Higher-Yielding Soybeans LATIN AMERICA: HIGHER-YIELDING NEW: R&D Pipeline SOYBEAN PERFORMANCE Higher-Yielding Soybeans Family Percent yield difference vs. control (BU/A INCREASE OVER CONTROL) Phase 2 LEAD STATUS: 10.5% 7.8% AVERAGE YIELD ADVANTAGE 7.5% 8 PROJECT CONCEPT: 7 Higher-yielding soybeans aimed at 6 boosting intrinsic yield potential of soybeans through insertion of key 5 genes 4 VALUE: 3 LAUNCH-COUNTRY 45M ACRES1: 2 $300-$500M 2020 VALUE2: 1 0 SOURCES OF VALUE: EVENT 1 EVENT 2 EVENT 3 Improved yield 10 Locations 1 Targeting incremental yield to U.S. average of 42 bu/ac First of new Phase 2 commercial-track events 1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology demonstrates up to 10% increase in yield across fits at Monsanto's current 10 environments in Argentina 2007 market share in respective crops • Recently completed testing of additional 60 events in 2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch U.S. during the 2007 growing season country in year 2020 15
    • R&D PIPELINE Insect-Protected Soybeans Are First-Ever Trait Developed Exclusively for Non-U.S. Opportunity INITIAL PERFORMANCE OF INSECT- NEW: PROTECTED SOYBEANS R&D Pipeline Insect-Protected Soybeans with MONMOUTH, IL SCREENHOUSE – 2007 Roundup RReady2Yield Phase 2 STATUS: PROJECT CONCEPT: Insect-protected soybeans use Bt technology widely adopted in corn and cotton to control insect pests especially economically important for South American farmers VALUE: LAUNCH-COUNTRY: Brazil LAUNCH-COUNTRY 50M ACRE OPPORTUNITY1: 2020 COMMERCIAL $150-$300M VALUE2: CONTROL WITH GENE (NO INSECTICIDE) SOURCES OF VALUE: (NO INSECTICIDE) Insecticide substitution 1 First Monsanto trait product developed exclusively for non-U.S. Based on 2 current sprays costing almost $6/application market – Brazil and Argentina – where farmers spray 2 times annually at a cost of $5.70/acre to control insect pests Improved yield 2 Targeting 7-11% increase 1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at Monsanto's current 2007 market share in respective crops 2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country in year 2020 16
    • R&D PIPELINE Vistive III Positions Significant Portion of U.S. Soybean Crop For Higher-Value Food-Grade Oil Opportunity IMPROVING NUTRITIONAL PROFILE OF R&D Pipeline SOYBEAN OIL Vistive III Soybeans LINOLENIC LINOLEIC OLEIC SATS HIT Project Phase 2 18:3 18:2 18:1 18:0 / 16:0 PROJECT CONCEPT: Standard Soybean Combining both breeding and biotechnology, Vistive III trait designed to lower linolenic and Target: saturate content while boosting Vistive III oleic content for an oil profile similar to olive oil with processing MAJOR MARKET SEGMENTS FOR U.S. SOYBEAN OIL and economic advantages VALUE: HYDROGENATED- NON-HYDROGENATED HYDROGENATED-BAKING FRYING LAUNCH-COUNTRY 20M ACRES1: For various For salad oils, For various baking frying <$150M 2020 VALUE2: household use applications applications SOURCES OF VALUE: Uses 50% of total Uses 25% of Uses 25% of total Oil replacement value crushing total crushing crushing Fit for frying applications and 1 (~20M acres) (~10M acres) (~10M acres) oil blends for baking, roughly 20M of oil for food uses Applicable uses ideal for Vistive III Source: Soyatech, USDA 1. Acre opportunity reflects acres where technology fits at Monsanto's current 2007 market share in respective crops 2. 2020 value reflects gross sales opportunity in launch country in year 2020 17
    • SOYBEAN BREEDING Roundup RReady2Yield and Molecular Breeding Rewrite Historic Soybean Yield Trends SOYBEAN YIELD PROGRESSION: 2000-2012 52 MAB gains set new USDA AVERAGE YIELD/AC1 trajectory on top of TREND LINE OF USDA YIELD 50 Roundup RReady2Yield step change SOYBEAN YIELD AT HISTORIC 48 RATE GAIN Roundup AVERAGE YIELD RReady2Yield creates EXPECTED TREND WITH APPLIED step change of 7-11% (BU/ACRE) 46 MOLECULAR BREEDING (MAB) across portfolio 44 42 All breeding going 40 forward is built on Roundup RReady2Yield MAB-ROUNDUP HISTORIC GAIN: 0.50 BU/AC 38 foundation and uses RREADY2YIELD applied MAB PLATFORM technology 36 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2006 2009-2010 First varieties from MAB Roundup RReady2Yield enter commercial portfolio controlled commercial release + commercial Varieties show >3 bu/ac yield launch advantage over commercial checks 1. USDA NASS: http://www.nass.usda.gov/QuickStats/ 18
    • R&D PIPELINE U.S. Field Trials Continuing to Test Drought-Tolerance Proof of Concept in Cotton EARLY RESULTS ON DROUGHT-TOLERANT NEW: R&D Pipeline COTTON TESTING IN U.S. Drought-Tolerant Cotton GENE 2 GENE 1 Phase 1 LEAD STATUS: PROJECT CONCEPT: Drought-tolerant cotton designed to minimize risk in cotton farming by providing yield stability in environments experiencing sporadic or consistent water stress and by WITH GENE CONTROL WITH GENE CONTROL reducing water needs on irrigated acres NUMBER OF FIELD TRIALS► As Phase 1 project, PROJECT UPDATE: testing multiple genes for in-field • Building a portfolio of proof of concept genes that confer drought tolerance in cotton Field testing will ► • Initial field results show expand significantly positive phenotypes for as drought-tolerant multiple genes in water- cotton leads continue stressed conditions through pipeline evaluation and development 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 19
    • R&D PIPELINE Strong Pipeline Reflects Growing Innovation, Opportunity in Latter-Stage Projects and Emerging Value in Yield and Stress 2020 COUNTRY ADDITIONAL PHASE COMMERCIAL OF GEOGRAPHIC SOURCES OF VALUE VALUE LAUNCH OPPORTUNITY • Improved yield BRAZIL HIGH 2 LEAD ARGENTINA Drought-Tolerant Corn Family U.S. YEILD & STRESS • Water replacement EU 27 • Improved yield BRAZIL HIGH 1 LEAD ARGENTINA Nitrogen-Utilization Corn Family U.S. • Nitrogen replacement EU 27 BRAZIL MEGA 2 LEAD • Improved yield Broad-Acre, Higher-Yielding Corn Family U.S. ARGENTINA EU 27 Broad-Acre, Higher-Yielding Soybean HIGH BRAZIL 2 LEAD • Improved yield U.S. ARGENTINA Family HIGH BRAZIL 4 • Improved yield Roundup RReady2Yield Soybeans U.S. ARGENTINA • Improved yield BRAZIL HIGH 4 ARGENTINA U.S. YieldGard VT PRO • Improved insect protection EU 27 LOW 4 Improved-Protein Soybeans U.S. • Food industry functionality N/A LOW BRAZIL 3 High-Oil Soybeans U.S. • Food industry functionality ARGENTINA HIGH 3 Omega-3 Soybeans U.S. • Food industry functionality N/A • Improved yield Insect Protected + Roundup MID 2 Brazil ARGENTINA • Improved insect protection RReady2Yield Soybeans LOW BRAZIL 2 Dicamba-Tolerant Soybeans U.S. • Durable weed control ARGENTINA INDIA MID 2 • Improved insect protection Bollgard III Cotton U.S. AUSTRALIA BRAZIL LOW 2 Vistive III Soybeans U.S. • Food industry functionality N/A LOW U.S. 2 • Improved yield Roundup RReady2Yield Canola Canada EU 27 COMMERCIAL VALUE RANGES AT 2020: LOW <$150M MID $150-$300M HIGH $300-$500M MEGA >$1B For further valuation information and valuation definitions, see “Valuing the R&D Pipeline” backgrounder, available at: http://www.monsanto.com/investors 20