CARL CASALE
EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT,
NORTH AMERICA COMMERCIAL


CREDIT SUISSE
19TH ANNUAL CHEMICAL CONFERENCE


SEPT. 20,...
Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements contained in this presentation are quot;forward-looking statements,quot; su...
OVERVIEW


  Demand for Grain Is Global and Has Been Growing Over the
  Past Decade

                                     ...
OVERVIEW


Changing Demand Dynamics Are Leading to Fundamental
Shifts Favoring Corn and Soybean Production

FOCUS: PRODUCT...
OVERVIEW


Because of Focus on Per-Acre Productivity, Seed Is Farmers’
Most Important Decision

                          ...
COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY

Farmers ‘Buy Yield,’ Creating Opportunity for Seeds and
Traits Growth

FARMERS’ DECISION EQUATION
...
COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY


Delivering ‘Yield’ Favors Companies That Can Provide Both
Breeding and Biotechnology Improvements...
COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY

Power of Breeding Library and Capabilities Lies in Unique
Ability to Create Differentiated Product...
COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY


Demonstrated Product Leadership Translates to Recognized
Brand Leadership

    MARKET RESEARCH: T...
COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY

Seed Purchase Decisions Reflect Farmers’ Effort to Balance
On-Farm Risk

 MARKET RESEARCH: SEED PU...
COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY

Triple-Channel Approach Allows Monsanto to Compete for
Total Farm While Providing Genetic Diversit...
COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY


 Performance Acceleration Across U.S. Commercial
 Channels Is Reflected in Market Share Growth
  ...
COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY


       With the Corn Trait Technology in Hand Today, There’s
       Opportunity to Double Penetra...
COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY


Price-for-Penetration Strategy Gives More Farmers Access to
New Technology in Early Years of Intr...
PIPELINE OPPORTUNITY

 Monsanto Is Upgrading the Entire Commercial Trait
 Portfolio to Second- and Third-Generation Traits...
PIPELINE OPPORTUNITY

From Early Stages, “HIT” Projects Are Designed and
Resourced to Bolster Commercial Readiness

      ...
PIPELINE OPPORTUNITY

 Reflecting HIT Status, Roundup RReady2Yield Soybeans Is
 Targeted for Most Significant Commercial T...
PIPELINE OPPORTUNITY

  Multi-Generational Drought-Tolerant Corn Creates
  Value Across Multiple Market Segments
         ...
SUMMARY


Monsanto Has Strong Growth Opportunity in Current
Commercial Portfolio and Emerging from R&D Pipeline

PERIOD   ...
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monsanto 09-20-06

  1. 1. CARL CASALE EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, NORTH AMERICA COMMERCIAL CREDIT SUISSE 19TH ANNUAL CHEMICAL CONFERENCE SEPT. 20, 2006 1
  2. 2. Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements contained in this presentation are quot;forward-looking statements,quot; such as statements concerning the company's anticipated financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, business and financial plans and other non-historical facts. These statements are based on current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company's actual performance and results may differ materially from those described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, among others: continued competition in seeds, traits and agricultural chemicals; the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to intellectual property protection, regulatory compliance and the speed with which approvals are received, and public acceptance of biotechnology products; the success of the company's research and development activities; the outcomes of major lawsuits, including proceedings related to Solutia Inc.; developments related to foreign currencies and economies; successful completion and operation of recent and proposed acquisitions; fluctuations in commodity prices; compliance with regulations affecting our manufacturing; the accuracy of the company's estimates related to distribution inventory levels; the company's ability to fund its short-term financing needs and to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the effect of weather conditions, natural disasters and accidents on the agriculture business or the company's facilities; and other risks and factors detailed in the company's filings with the SEC. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this presentation. The company disclaims any current intention or obligation to update any forward- looking statements or any of the factors that may affect actual results. Trademarks Trademarks owned by Monsanto Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries are italicized in this presentation. Mavera™ is a trademark of Renessen. © 2006 Monsanto Company 2
  3. 3. OVERVIEW Demand for Grain Is Global and Has Been Growing Over the Past Decade FOCUS: DEMAND WORLD SUPPLY AND USE FOR TOTAL GRAINS Ending stocks represent carryover year to year of 600 30% grain; METRIC TONS (IN MILLIONS) 500 25% Carryover is declining reflecting expanded 400 20% global demand reflecting greater global demand 300 15% from sources like biofuels and export markets 200 10% Carryover as a percent of total use is also declining 100 5% Reduction in carryover 0 0% comes at a time when 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 grain production is at an all-time high, further ENDING STOCKS AS A ENDING STOCKS reinforcing the strong PERCENT OF TOTAL USE demand pull in the market Source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates 3
  4. 4. OVERVIEW Changing Demand Dynamics Are Leading to Fundamental Shifts Favoring Corn and Soybean Production FOCUS: PRODUCTION U.S. PLANTED ACRES Corn, wheat and TOTAL PLANTED ACRES soybeans account 90 OF CORN, WHEAT, SOY 220 for about 87 percent of plantable acreage 210 85 ACRES (IN MILLIONS) 200 Planting influenced ACRES (IN MILLIONS) CORN 80 TOTAL PLANTED by expected net 190 returns among 180 75 competing crops; 170 SOY Net returns are 70 160 affected by: market prices, yields and WHEAT 150 65 production costs 140 60 Wheat plantings 130 have reduced by 120 55 approximately 10 110 million acres since 50 100 the late 1990s 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 WHEAT SOY CORN TOTAL PLANTED ACRES Source: USDA 4
  5. 5. OVERVIEW Because of Focus on Per-Acre Productivity, Seed Is Farmers’ Most Important Decision U.S. CORN PRODUCTION COSTS PER ACRE 1996 OPERATING COSTS1 2004 17% SEED 22% (INCLUDING TRAITS) 17% CHEMICALS 15% 30% FERTILIZER 29% SEED (INCLUDING TRAITS) FERTILIZERS & SOIL AVERAGE YIELD AVERAGE YIELD 169 bu/ac 130 bu/ac CONDITIONERS PRICE PER PRICE PER FUEL & POWER COSTS $2.13 $2.82 BUSHEL BUSHEL AVERAGE AVERAGE CHEMICALS ENTERPRISE ENTERPRISE 236 acres 189 acres SIZE SIZE CUSTOM OPERATIONS & TECHNICAL SERVICE OTHER 1. Excludes “Overhead” costs, including hired labor and opportunity cost of land, etc. Source: USDA Economic Research Service: http://www.ers.usda.gov/data/CostsandReturns/testpick.htm 5
  6. 6. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY Farmers ‘Buy Yield,’ Creating Opportunity for Seeds and Traits Growth FARMERS’ DECISION EQUATION MONSANTO’S POSITION: CORN SEED National brands (GENETIC GAIN) The starting point of all agriculture; Regional brands farmers need to maximize ‘genetics’ in seed for yield + Licensing TECHNOLOGY Weed control ‘Below ground’ ‘Above ground’ system protection protection (% OF GENETIC GAIN PRESERVED) Technology is used to protect and maximize the yield potential of the = seed The elegance of a seed and trait approach MAXIMUM YIELD is that the seed is the package and traits POTENTIAL can be ‘stacked’ for maximum effect The basic equation represents the In 2005, Monsanto introduced the first maximum yield potential multiplied triple-stack of biotech traits by the percent of that yield preserved by technology 6
  7. 7. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY Delivering ‘Yield’ Favors Companies That Can Provide Both Breeding and Biotechnology Improvements in Concert FOCUS: YIELD WHAT MATTERS TO FARMERS IS THE YIELD AT HARVEST, WHICH IS A FUNCTION OF HOW MUCH POTENTIAL A SEED HAS AND HOW IT’S GENETIC POTENTIAL (FUTURE) PROTECTED: GENETIC POTENTIAL NET REALIZED YIELD WITH PERCENT OF GENETIC GAIN FUTURE PROTECTION X PRESERVED OPPORTUNITIES PROTECTION AND ENHANCEMENT IMPROVED NITROGEN ADVANCES BREEDING UTILIZATION NET REALIZED YIELD DROUGHT TOLERANCE SECOND-GENERATION INSECT CONTROL GENETIC POTENTIAL (CURRENT) INSECT PRESSURE NET REALIZED YIELD WITH CURRENT WEED PRESSURE PROTECTION NATURAL YIELD NUTRIENT DEFICIENCY SUPPRESSION BELOW-GROUND CURRENT YIELD WATER DEFICIENCY INSECT CONTROL PROTECTION GENETIC POTENTIAL ABOVE-GROUND PRESERVED INSECT CONTROL THROUGH BIOTECH TRAITS AND PRODUCTION WEED-CONTROL ADVANCES TRAITS SEED NET REALIZED YIELD MANUFACTURING WITH NO PROTECTION 7
  8. 8. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY Power of Breeding Library and Capabilities Lies in Unique Ability to Create Differentiated Products for Three Channels BREEDING TECHNOLOGY AND COMMERCIAL CHANNELS GERMPLASM LIBRARY APPLICATION Licensed to regional brands >250 independent seed companies BREEDING GLOBAL PROGRAM CREATES GERMPLASM DIFFERENTIATED LIBRARY Regional brands GERMPLASM 16 brands National brands Key position with ag chem retailers • Germplasm library • >100 breeding research • 50% of the breeding population comes from centers worldwide inter-company, inter-country crosses assembled from 36 programs in 12 • >2,000 genetic markers • Molecular breeding improves genetic countries used by breeders for corn potential by 2x versus conventional today breeding 8
  9. 9. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY Demonstrated Product Leadership Translates to Recognized Brand Leadership MARKET RESEARCH: TOP 3 CITED SEED PURCHASE DRIVERS Based on a sample of 1,909 respondents representing farmers who use seed from the major players in the U.S. corn seed market1 RANKED ORDER OF FARMER RESPONSES OTHER NATIONAL Top 3 largest CORN SEED purchase drivers for PROVIDER(S) farmers buying DEKALB corn seed Good Yield 35% Good Yield 41% 1 all relate to Good Stand/ performance Top 2 of 3 Lower Cost 27% 16% 2 Strong Stalks benefits – reflecting purchase drivers 68% of the reasons related to price Discount/ Test Plot cited 10% 11% 3 Rebates Results MARKET SHARE PERFORMANCE The positive view by farmers of PROJECTED MARKET SHARE DEKALB’s brand GAIN 2005 to 2006F performance is reflected in its +2.5% Asgrow and DEKALB brands market share growth year to year 1.Monsanto research; Survey question: “What one factor most influenced your decision to plant more acres of [brand] corn seed in 2006 than you did this past season in 2005? 9
  10. 10. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY Seed Purchase Decisions Reflect Farmers’ Effort to Balance On-Farm Risk MARKET RESEARCH: SEED PURCHASE DECISIONS ON-FARM1 PURCHASE PATTERNS • Plant 3-4 brands and 5-8 different hybrids • 60% select germplasm first, then make PURCHASE a decision on biotech traits STRATEGY: • Decision-making actions: look at on- farm comparisons (68%), speak with another farmer (58%), speak with seed company (58%) FOCUS: SEED PURCHASES • Purchase from average of 2-3 seed Farmers manage risk through PURCHASE dealers LOGISTICS: diversification on farm • 61% of purchases are made in November and December Number of brands is the practical PLANTING MIX tool used to create genetic diversity on-farm • 38% planted to latest “top-yielding” YIELD hybrids STRATEGY: • 54% planted to consistent performing hybrids • 28% are first-year hybrids AGE-MIX • 30% are second-year hybrids STRATEGY: • 42% are third-year or older hybrids 1. Monsanto market research 10
  11. 11. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY Triple-Channel Approach Allows Monsanto to Compete for Total Farm While Providing Genetic Diversity HOLDEN’S SEED PARTNER FIELD x HYBRID SELECTION DEKALB MODEL FARM OPERATION LH331RR+LH324B HYBRID: HYBRID: DKC63-74 TCRW TRAITS1: RR/YGPL TRAITS1: RR/YGPL • Very good disease package • Excellent overall plant and late season health health • Excellent drought tolerance • Very good stalks DEKALB CROW’S HYBRIDS HYBRID: DKC61-66 HYBRID: 4940T TRAITS : 1 RR/YGPL TRAITS1: RR/YGPL • Earlier maturity hybrid to • Excellent stalks spread reproductive • Excellent drought tolerance window • Very good stalks and roots DEKALB CROW’S HYBRIDS MODEL FARM CHARACTERISTICS HYBRID: DKC64-23 HYBRID: 4616T Central LOCATION: TRAITS : 1 RR/YGRW Illinois TRAITS1: RR/YGPL • Very good stalks and roots BRANDS OF SEED CORN PLANTED: • Earlier maturity hybrid to 3 for flexible harvest spread reproductive scheduling INDIVIDUAL HYBRIDS PLANTED: window 6 • Excellent drought tolerance • Very good disease package 1. Trait abbreviations: RR= Roundup Ready; YGCB = YieldGard Corn Borer; YGRW = YieldGard Rootworm; YGPL = YieldGard Plus 11
  12. 12. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY Performance Acceleration Across U.S. Commercial Channels Is Reflected in Market Share Growth U.S. CORN MARKET SHARE 60% 50% 40% Continued gains 30% of 1-2 points for National brands 20% 10% 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006F 2007F TRAIT PENETRATION STACKED PENETRATION 2005 2006F 2005 2006F LICENSED BRANDS 44% 60% 27% 43% REGIONAL BRANDS 67% 75% 36% 53% NATIONAL BRANDS 87% 90% 60% 69% 12
  13. 13. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY With the Corn Trait Technology in Hand Today, There’s Opportunity to Double Penetration By End of Decade U.S. CORN TRAIT OPPORTUNITY FOCUS: OPPORTUNITY TOTAL MARKET OPPORTUNITY IN 2010 U.S. TRAIT ACRE OPPORTUNITY: CURRENT RELATIVE RETAIL VALUE PER ACRE YIELDGARD COMMERCIAL CORN ROOTWORM TRAITS 2006F: YIELDGARD Under 50% CORN BORER penetrated to date ROUNDUP READY CORN 60 40 50 30 10 20 U.S. TRAIT-ACRE OPPORTUNITY (ACRES IN MILLIONS) OPPORTUNITY DOUBLE SINGLE TRIPLE 20-25M ACRES STACKED ~10M ACRES 25-30M ACRES Above triple stack, Acres exclusively using Because YieldGard Rootworm remaining YieldGard Roundup Ready, which would has the lowest market Corn Borer forms include “refuge” acres opportunity of the 3 traits, its double-stack required for other acres using market potential is the proxy for opportunity insect-protected traits total potential for triple stack 13
  14. 14. COMMERCIAL OPPORTUNITY Price-for-Penetration Strategy Gives More Farmers Access to New Technology in Early Years of Introduction YIELDGARD CORN BORER U.S. PENETRATION OF CORN TRAITS INTRODUCED 1997 PERCENT OF TOTAL MARKET OPPORTUNITY1 PENETRATED BY YEARS FOLLOWING COMMERCIAL INTRODUCTION PERCENT OF TOTAL ~60% OPPORTUNITY (2006F) PERCENT OF TRAIT-ACRE OPPORTUNITY1 70% Year 3: FIRST SIGNIFICANT Decrease to PRICING MOVE: 60% drive penetration 50% ROUNDUP READY CORN INTRODUCED 1998 40% PERCENT OF TOTAL ~55% OPPORTUNITY (2006F) 30% FIRST SIGNIFICANT Year 6: PRICING MOVE: 20% Increase YIELDGARD ROOTWORM 10% INTRODUCED 2003 0% PERCENT OF TOTAL ~35% Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year Year OPPORTUNITY (2006F) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 FIRST SIGNIFICANT None to PRICING MOVE: date FOCUS: TRAIT VALUE Pricing philosophy gives farmers more Price for penetration, based on replacement access on more acres to new technology value of competitive alternative Growth comes from volume expansion For each $3 of value created, Monsanto seeks more than price $1 and remainder accrues to farmer 1. Percent of total market opportunity reflects the ratio of number of actual acres planted to total trait-acre opportunity identified for each particular trait 14
  15. 15. PIPELINE OPPORTUNITY Monsanto Is Upgrading the Entire Commercial Trait Portfolio to Second- and Third-Generation Traits TRAIT UPGRADE SCHEDULE SECOND-GENERATION UPGRADES THIRD-GENERATION UPGRADES FIRST-GENERATION TRAITS 1998 ROUNDUP READY 2001 ROUNDUP READY CORN CORN 2 1997 YIELDGARD CORN 2nd GEN YIELDGARD CORN PHASE 3 BORER CORN BORER YIELDGARD 2003 PHASE 1 2007 YIELDGARD YIELDGARD VT ROOTWORM II ROOTWORM CORN SOYBEANS ROUNDUP DICAMBA-TOLERANT PHASE 2 1996 ROUNDUP READY PHASE 3 RREADY2YIELD SOYBEANS SOYBEANS SOYBEANS 1996 BOLLGARD III BOLLGARD 2003 PHASE 2 BOLLGARD II COTTON COTTON COTTON COTTON 1997 2006 ROUNDUP READY ROUNDUP READY DICAMBA-TOLERANT PHASE 1 FLEX COTTON COTTON COTTON Upgrades already in commercial transition 15
  16. 16. PIPELINE OPPORTUNITY From Early Stages, “HIT” Projects Are Designed and Resourced to Bolster Commercial Readiness High-Impact Technology: A designated sub-set of the R&D pipeline placed on a graduated track to streamline development work and improve commercial readiness, reflecting enhanced confidence and certainty in our ability to launch a commercially P R O JE CT meaningful product; Designed to pull forward the Net Present Value (NPV) through larger-acre launches in elite germplasm with a greater financial benefit. Roundup RReady2Yield soybeans P R O JE CT PHASE III • Parallel work in breeding and biotechnology • Simultaneous regulatory work, submissions moving forward along with project testing for key launch countries Drought-tolerant corn P R O JE CT PHASE II • Parallel work in breeding and biotechnology • Early-stage R&D and commercial integration Vistive III soybeans P R O JE CT PHASE II • Progress will allow Vistive III to “leap- frog,” shortening the gap in commercialization between Vistive I and Vistive III 16
  17. 17. PIPELINE OPPORTUNITY Reflecting HIT Status, Roundup RReady2Yield Soybeans Is Targeted for Most Significant Commercial Trait Launch KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA Roundup RReady2Yield AVAILABLE MARKET 70M 50M 35M Soybeans CREATING VALUE PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% 0% LAUNCH ACRES OF U.S. TRAITS PRODUCT CONCEPT 3 HISTORICAL COMMERCIALIZED TRAITS (1996-2006) 2.5 HIT Project ACRES (IN MILLIONS) Roundup RReady2Yield soybeans AVERAGE 2 DISCOVERY PHASE I PHASE II PHASE III PHASE IV HISTORIC TRAIT LAUNCH: 1.5 1.2M ACRES 1 • Roundup RReady2Yield is the second-generation of Monsanto’s popular herbicide-tolerant platform in 0.5 soybeans 0 VALUE CONSIDERATIONS SOYBEAN COTTON CORN TRAITS TRAITS TRAITS • Value is additive, with target of up to 5 bushel-per- Target acreage for Roundup RReady2Yield acre yield improvement over comparable Roundup Ready soybeans commercial launch is expected to be a multiple above historical acreages in launch years • Value created through yield gains will be shared with farmer and value chain as has been Monsanto’s ROUNDUP RREADY2YIELD: COMMERCIAL MILESTONES practice STARTING POINT • Market opportunity for Roundup RReady2Yield U.S. REGULATORY APPROVAL soybeans recognizes competition from other traits SEASON 1 LAUNCH YEAR RETAIL Medium (>$10/acre to <$30/acre) GLOBAL REGULATORY CLEARANCES VALUE/ACRE: TOTAL ACRE PRE-COMMERCIAL USER- COMMERCIAL LAUNCH High (>20M acres) OPPORTUNITY: RELIABILITY TRIALS 17
  18. 18. PIPELINE OPPORTUNITY Multi-Generational Drought-Tolerant Corn Creates Value Across Multiple Market Segments KEY MARKET ACRES U.S. BRAZIL ARGENTINA AVAILABLE MARKET 80M 30M 6M Drought-tolerant corn CREATING VALUE PERCENT PENETRATED 0% 0% 0% SEGMENTED VALUE OPPORTUNITY PRODUCT CONCEPT ACROSS MARKETS: U.S. EXAMPLE HIT Project Drought-tolerant corn DISCOVERY PHASE I PHASE II PHASE III PHASE IV High annual precipitation • Drought-tolerance is a family of products, aimed at providing consistent yield and buffering against the effects of water limitations VALUE CONSIDERATIONS Low annual • Farmers value water-use in “acre-inches of water” needed precipitation to support yield potential – farmers need 18-20 inches of Source: Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State University moisture from natural or irrigated sources during growing WESTERN IRRIGATED STABILITY season DRYLAND • Value of the trait is in better yields under moisture- 8-12M acres 10-12M acres 50-60M acres stressed conditions; Varies by region (see table at right) • The value will be specific to the variable costs of water use 14-18” typical 14-18” typical 17-19” typical precipitation in precipitation in precipitation in by farmers, not fixed costs of irrigation growing season growing season growing season • First value models are based in U.S.; International markets Irrigated Non-irrigated Non-irrigated follow similar value proposition RETAIL Value is in Value is in Value is in Medium (>$10/acre to <$30/acre) VALUE/ACRE: improved yields improved yields replacing annually, by when moisture is irrigation, reducing TOTAL ACRE improving water- less than optimal the variable costs High (>20M acres) OPPORTUNITY: use efficiency of irrigation 18
  19. 19. SUMMARY Monsanto Has Strong Growth Opportunity in Current Commercial Portfolio and Emerging from R&D Pipeline PERIOD : PERIOD : PERIOD : SEED & TRAITS ESTABLISHED CORN IS ON THE LEADING EDGE THE GAME CHANGES 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Commercial viability of seeds With seeds-and-traits strategy Seed and trait growth comes from: penetration, and traits established; established, gross profit stacking and multi-generation traits, and Supporting infrastructure in opportunity expands in the United breeding enhancement; Corn defines the future place States and internationally with direction penetration, stacking, second- generation – even as competition becomes more significant PERIOD PERIOD KEY MILESTONES KEY DRIVERS Advances in breeding technology combine Continued growth in the U.S. corn market, with additive 1 with biotech for market advantage in corn; gross-margin opportunity for the ASI businesses U.S. share gains of 1-2 points Molecular breeding advances begin to benefit 2 Roundup Ready Corn 2 reaches 50M acres international corn market share position Stacks become the trait package of choice 3 New opportunities for global trait expansion in corn 4 Cotton platform creates new opportunities for growth Roundup Ready Flex cotton launches; Transition to second-generation traits Seminis poised to capture additional gross margin starts in United States and Australia 5 through commercial initiatives and technology infusion Ex-U.S. seeds and traits market established with cornerstones in India and Brazil Next-generation pipeline poised for enhanced 6 commercial delivery 19
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