monsanto 02-12-08

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monsanto 02-12-08

  1. 1. BRETT BEGEMANN EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT, GLOBAL COMMERCIAL GOLDMAN SACHS AGRICULTURAL BIOTECH FORUM February 12, 2008 1
  2. 2. Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements contained in this presentation are quot;forward-looking statements,quot; such as statements concerning the company's anticipated financial results, current and future product performance, regulatory approvals, business and financial plans and other non-historical facts. These statements are based on current expectations and currently available information. However, since these statements are based on factors that involve risks and uncertainties, the company's actual performance and results may differ materially from those described or implied by such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, among others: continued competition in seeds, traits and agricultural chemicals; the company's exposure to various contingencies, including those related to intellectual property protection, regulatory compliance and the speed with which approvals are received, and public acceptance of biotechnology products; the success of the company's research and development activities; the outcomes of major lawsuits, including proceedings related to Solutia Inc.; developments related to foreign currencies and economies; successful operation of recent acquisitions; fluctuations in commodity prices; compliance with regulations affecting our manufacturing; the accuracy of the company's estimates related to distribution inventory levels; the company's ability to fund its short- term financing needs and to obtain payment for the products that it sells; the effect of weather conditions, natural disasters and accidents on the agriculture business or the company's facilities; and other risks and factors detailed in the company's most recent periodic report to the SEC. Undue reliance should not be placed on these forward-looking statements, which are current only as of the date of this presentation. The company disclaims any current intention or obligation to update any forward-looking statements or any of the factors that may affect actual results. Trademarks Trademarks owned by Monsanto Company and its wholly-owned subsidiaries are italicized in this presentation. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. © 2008 Monsanto Company 2
  3. 3. Non-GAAP Financial Information This presentation may use the non-GAAP financial measures of “free cash flow,” earnings per share (EPS) on an ongoing basis and Return on Capital (ROC). We define free cash flow as the total of cash flows from operating activities and investing activities. A non-GAAP EPS financial measure, which we refer to as ongoing EPS, excludes certain after-tax items that we do not consider part of ongoing operations, which are identified in the reconciliation. ROC means net income (without the effect of certain items) exclusive of after-tax interest expenses, divided by the average of the beginning year and ending year net capital employed, as defined in the reconciliation. Our presentation of non-GAAP financial measures is intended to supplement investors’ understanding of our operating performance, not replace net income (loss), cash flows, financial position, or comprehensive income (loss), as determined in accordance with GAAP. Furthermore, these non-GAAP financial measures may not be comparable to similar measures used by other companies. The non-GAAP financial measures used in this presentation are reconciled to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP. Monsanto is unable to provide a reconciliation of the 2008 ROC goal to projected net income and financial position for 2008 without unreasonable effort. As shown in the ROC reconciliation for the previous year, the calculation of ROC is complex, and Monsanto does not have sufficient information at this point in the fiscal year to reasonably estimate its operating profit after-tax and average capital for 2008 due to market and other conditions that are outside of Monsanto’s control. FISCAL YEAR: References to year, or to fiscal year, are on a fiscal year basis and refer to the 12-month period ending August 31. 3
  4. 4. OVERVIEW Our Strategy Persists and Delivers; Ongoing Earnings Guidance to $2.70-$2.80 EPS for 2008 and On Track to 2012 Targets 2012 GROWTH RANGE MONSANTO GROSS PROFIT GROWTH TARGET Gross profit targeted to double from 2007 through 2012 $9,000 STRATEGIC PLAYBOOK $8,000 All growth is organic, from $7,000 base business and pipeline GROSS PROFIT (IN MILLIONS) $6,000 U.S. Corn International Corn $5,000 Soybeans Cotton $4,000 Seminis $3,000 R&D Pipeline Ongoing EPS guidance of $2,000 $2.70-$2.80 based on strong $1,000 outlook for corn, soy and Roundup globally $0 Earnings continue to translate 2004 2007 2012 MILESTONES into operating cash, and value 2010 2007 created for shareowners Gross margin Base Gross Profit: through combination of target: 52-54% $4,286M acquisitions, share ONGOING EPS GROWTH: repurchases and dividends MID-TO-HIGH TEENS 4
  5. 5. OVERVIEW Seeds & Traits Strategy Prevails Through Peaks and Valleys of Commodity Cycles BOLLGARD (II) AND ROUNDUP READY (FLEX) COTTON ROUNDUP READY SOYBEANS ABSOLUTE TRAIT PENETRATION & COMMODITY PRICE ABSOLUTE TRAIT PENETRATION & COMMODITY PRICE $12.00 120% PERCENTAGE OF PLANTED 120% $0.70 PERCENTAGE OF PLANTED DOLLARS PER BU 100% $10.00 DOLLARS PER LB $0.60 100% $0.50 $8.00 80% 80% ACRES ACRES $0.40 60% $6.00 60% $0.30 $4.00 40% 40% $0.20 20% $2.00 20% $0.10 $0.00 0% 0% $0.00 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 1 U.S. Soybean Commodity Price U.S. Cotton Commodity Price1 % of U.S. Soybean Acres Penetrated % of U. S. Cotton Acres Penetrated YieldGard Corn Borer, YieldGard Rootworm, Roundup Ready ABSOLUTE TRAIT PENETRATION & COMMODITY PRICE SEEDS & TRAITS GROWTH 120% $4.00 PERCENTAGE OF PLANTED KEY DRIVERS $3.50 100% DOLLARS PER BU 1. Development and launch of biotech traits that $3.00 bring breakthrough innovation to growers 80% $2.50 through a seed solution ACRES 60% $2.00 2. Cutting-edge breeding technology that offers $1.50 varieties and hybrids never before available 40% with greater yield performance $1.00 20% 3. Combination of best trait technologies in top- $0.50 performing, elite seeds resulting from best-in- 0% $0.00 class trait integration '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 U.S. Corn Commodity Price 1 5 % of U.S. Corn Acres Penetrated 1. Source: USDA/NASS data; 2007 is Dec. price only
  6. 6. OVERVIEW Innovation Delivered through Balanced Crop Portfolio Consistently Delivers Growth Despite Acreage Shifts 1.2 2008F For every 1 million acres that shifts 1.00 1 PLANTED ACRE (INDEXED) AVERAGE GROSS PROFIT/ from soybeans to either corn or 0.94 cotton in the U.S., on average, an estimated 1 cent of EPS is gained 0.8 0.6 0.47 0.4 0.2 0 CORN COTTON SOYBEANS BRANDED SEED U.S. Trait Intensity 1.6 1.3 .97 FY08 – All Channels CURRENT TRAITS 6
  7. 7. OVERVIEW At Mid-Year, Corn and Soybean Performance Globally Builds Platform for Delivering Five-Year Growth Plan STRATEGIC PLAYBOOK 2012 GROWTH RANGE U.S. Corn Gross profit targeted to double from 2007 through 2012 KEY PRIORITIES STRATEGIC PLAYBOOK 1. Grow U.S. seed footprint 2. Expand trait penetration and bridge to SmartStax 2010 launch All growth is organic, from base business and pipeline International Corn U.S. Corn International Corn KEY PRIORITIES Soybeans 1. Expand international seed footprint Cotton Seminis 2. Set the table for biotech trait ramp up outside of the U.S. R&D Pipeline Acquisitions to be pursued, Soybeans but are not included in this KEY PRIORITIES growth projection 1. Launch of Roundup Ready 2 Yield soybeans Earnings continue to translate 2. Continue penetration of Roundup Ready soybeans in Brazil to into operating cash, and value create platform for insect-protected Roundup Ready 2 Yield created for shareowners soybeans through combination of 3. Launch enhanced modified oil traits acquisitions, share repurchases and dividends 4. Continue to develop and launch pipeline traits with more stacked offerings 7
  8. 8. U.S. CORN Orders and Shipments to Date Indicate DEKALB Could Gain Two-to-Three Share Points in U.S. Corn Seed DEKALB U.S. CORN SHARE EVOLUTION: 2001-2012F 32% 30% 2012 TARGET RANGE GEOGRAPHY: U.S. 28% OBJECTIVE: Grow footprint 2008 STATUS 25% - 26% 26% • DEKALB expected to 24% gain 2- 3 points in 2008 ORIGINAL 2010 TARGET RANGE 22% for total share of 25-to-26 percent in U.S. market 23% 20% 2012 OUTLOOK 18% • Grow share through 2012 19% DEKALB expected 16% by up to 10 points to continue share cumulatively from 2007 gains, with 16% 14% cumulative target share of 23 percent 14% of as much as 10 12% 13% points from 2007 10% 12% to 2012 10% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008F 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2007 2005 DEKALB ends 2007 with Monsanto projects 1-2 point 23% share, achieving 2010 share gains for DEKALB from target 3 years early 2005 through 2010 8
  9. 9. U.S. CORN With Platform Established, ASI Expected to Gain Share Organically for Second Consecutive Season ASI U.S. CORN SHARE EVOLUTION: 2005-2008E GEOGRAPHY: 12% U.S. 10-11% OBJECTIVE: Grow footprint 10% 9.1% 2008 STATUS • ASI expected to gain 1-to- 8% 2 share points organically in 2008 6% 5.2% season 2012 OUTLOOK 3.5% 4% • Continued organic share 2% growth 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008F 2007 ASI gained 1 share point of organic growth in 2007, ending the year with 9 share points just three years after ASI strategy was initiated 9
  10. 10. U.S. CORN ASI Provides Differentiated Approach to Market While Delivering Gross Profit Per Acre Comparable to DEKALB ASI GROSS PROFIT PER ACRE GEOGRAPHY: U.S. GP/acre increases 2 OBJECTIVE: Grow footprint AVERAGE GROSS PROFIT/ACRE 85% after ASI 2008 STATUS Average 1.8 acquisition GP/acre in 1.85 • ASI includes 26 brands, 1.6 same band with differentiated as DEKALB 1.4 (INDEXED) customer experience from DEKALB 1.2 • Organic growth of 1 1 share point in 2007 1 0.8 brought ASI to 9 points total 0.6 2012 OUTLOOK 0.4 • Continued organic share 0.2 growth 0 POST- PRE- DEKALB ACQUISITION ACQUISITION • With technology infusion, gross profit per acre lifts when seed company brought under ASI umbrella 10
  11. 11. U.S. CORN Monsanto Infused Technology and Capital into ASI Companies, Resulting in Upgraded Margin from Trait Stacks PERCENTAGE OF BRANDED PORTFOLIO CONTAINING TRIPLE STACK 70% ASI % of Portfolio in Triple Stack 60% 55-60% DEKALB % of Portfolio in Triple Stack GEOGRAPHY: U.S. 50% Expand trait 42% penetration and 40% 35% OBJECTIVE: bridge to SmartStax 2010 30% launch 21% 20% 2008 STATUS 14% 8% 10% • DEKALB and ASI 1% portfolios expected to be 0% 55-60 percent triple stack 2005 2006 2007 2008F 2012 OUTLOOK ASI • Continued high triple trait 26 26 4 16 Brands penetration in both DEKALB and ASI brands, creating platform for conversion to SmartStax 11
  12. 12. U.S. CORN U.S. Triple-Stacked Corn Forecasted to Grow 40 to 50+ Percent in 2008 U.S. CORN TRAIT OPPORTUNITY: 2005-2010F 220 60 U.S. TRIPLE-STACK ACRES 200 U.S. TRAIT ACRES 50 180 (IN MILLIONS) (IN MILLIONS) 160 40 140 120 30 100 80 20 60 40 10 20 0 0 CATALYSTS OF 2010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010F TRIPLE STACK 2007 2008F Opportunity GROWTH Rootworm Control 45-55M 20.8M 26-28M Channel Triple Corn Borer Control Penetration 60-70M 42.4M 40-42M Glyphosate Tolerance 80M DEKALB Supply 57.9M 63-65M Guarantee Triple Stack 17.6M 25-27M 45-55M Yield Insurance Trait acres reflect the total acres planted with each individual trait. In the case of stacked traits, each absolute acre will be reflected by two or more trait acres. Program Source: “Monsanto Biotechnology Trait Acreage” available through: monsanto.com/investors/ 12
  13. 13. INTERNATIONAL CORN DEKALB Expected to Gain Corn Share and Maintain Leadership in Expanded Market in Argentina 2007 2008F INA (06/07 SEASON) (07/08 SEASON) GEOGRAPHY: Argentina HYBRID NT Expand MARKET OBJECTIVE: international GE 8M1 10M1 SIZE footprint AR 2008 STATUS • Expected to grow 5 share points in a market that is DEKALB 25 percent larger than in 40% 45% SHARE 2007 2012 OUTLOOK AVG. • Target 1-to-2 share points RETAIL of growth annually $23/ACRE $29/ACRE PRICE FOR through 2012 DEKALB HYBRID CORN SEED 13 1. Source: KLEFFMANN Marketing Services
  14. 14. INTERNATIONAL CORN Approval of Stacked Corn in Argentina to Accelerate Roundup Ready Adoption; 30-to-40 Percent Availability Planned for 2009 TRAITED CORN ACRES PLANTED VS. OPPORTUNITY IN ARGENTINA ROUNDUP READY CORN 2 SmartStax 10 YIELDGARD CORN BORER 9M GEOGRAPHY: Argentina 8M 8 Set the table for 7M M ACRES DOUBLE AND TRIPLE OPPORTUNITY biotech trait 6M OBJECTIVE: ramp outside 6 the U.S. 2008 STATUS 4 • 86 percent of corn borer control opportunity 2 .8M penetrated in 2008 season; Roundup Ready Corn 2 0 relatively untapped • Approximately 150K acres of OPPORTUNITY 2007 2008F double stack planted in first year of launch ROUNDUP READY CORN 2 YIELDGARD CORN BORER - ARGENTINA • Seed production for 30-to-40 percent double-stack traits in • Growers forced to trade off between insect and weed control prior to approval 2009 of double stack; penetration expected to accelerate much faster than with 2012 OUTLOOK single traits. • 100 percent of corn acres in Argentina infested with sugarcane corn borer and • Continue penetration of corn earworm, making SmartStax an excellent fit for this market double-stack to create footprint for SmartStax 14
  15. 15. INTERNATIONAL CORN Brazil Expected to Turn the Corner and Hold Hybrid Corn Seed Share in 2008 BRAZIL 2007 2008F GEOGRAPHY: Brazil Hold brand OBJECTIVE: HYBRID share in 2008 23M 26M MARKET 2008 STATUS SIZE • DEKALB and Agroeste MONSANTO combined are forecasted 40% 40% SAFRA SHARE to be flat with 2007, delivering on our goal to SAFRINHA AVG. RETAIL stabilize share in 2008 PRICE FOR 2012 OUTLOOK DEKALB $29/ACRE $34/ACRE • After 2008, target 1-2 HYBRID share point gains per CORN SEED year BRAZILIAN HYBRID CORN MARKET SAFRA (SUMMER) – Produced during wet summer months (Oct. – Feb.); expected to account for 60 percent of total corn planted for 2007-2008 season. SAFRINHA (WINTER) – Produced during winter months (Jan. – Sept.); expected to account for 40 percent of total corn planted in 2008 season. Market experiencing the most growth and represents our strongest share. 15
  16. 16. INTERNATIONAL CORN Final Approvals Pending in Brazil for YieldGard Corn Borer; Potential for Launch in 2009 TRAITED CORN OPPORTUNITY IN BRAZIL GEOGRAPHY: Brazil Set the table for 20 biotech trait 15-20M OBJECTIVE: ramp outside SmartStax the U.S. 15 M ACRES 2008 STATUS ROUNDUP READY CORN 2 • Awaiting vote from 10 YIELDGARD CORN BORER CNBS, the next step in the regulatory approval 5 process for YieldGard Corn Borer 2012 OUTLOOK 0 • First-generation corn OPPORTUNITY 2008 traits launched to create footprint for SmartStax REGULATORY APPROVAL PROCESS IN BRAZIL • First step consists of approval from CTNBio, Brazil’s biosafety commission, which is managed by the Ministry of Science and Technology to make science-based technical assessments • CTNBio approval may be followed by a review from the National Biosafety Council (CNBS) to examine social and economic factors • Hybrid variety registrations required before commercial launch 16
  17. 17. SOYBEANS Asgrow Soybean Share Expected to Increase in Expanded Market in 2008 U.S. SOYBEAN BRANDED AND LICENSED SEED SHARE 100% U.S. SOYBEAN SEED MARKET SHARE 90% CORN STATES ASI ASGROW LICENSEES 80% 70% (PERCENTAGE) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 TARGET 17
  18. 18. SOYBEANS Japan Export Approval for Roundup Ready 2 Yield Received; On Track for 2009 Controlled Commercial Release ROUNDUP READY 2 YIELD SOYBEANS: CROP: Soybeans LAUNCH PLANS Launch OBJECTIVE: Roundup U.S. Full-Scale Ready 2 Yield Launch Target: P R O JE CT 5- 6M Acres 2008 STATUS U.S. Controlled • Consistent 7-to-11percent Commercial yield advantage with Release Target: Roundup Ready 2 Yield 1- 2M Acres • U.S., Canadian and Grower level marketing, awareness and trial Japanese approvals received; awaiting key Licensee breeding export approvals from China, Mexico and Europe Industry coordination and communications • Pre-launch activities • American Soybean Association and key agri-food under way stakeholders PRICING Pursuit of export approvals in China, Europe and • Yield improvement shared Mexico – JAPAN RECEIVED with grower; average 5- Branded and licensed seed production year soybean commodity 2007 2008 2009 2010 price approximately $6.40 per bushel1 18 1. Source: NASS, USDA data 2003 to August 2007
  19. 19. SOYBEANS Roundup Ready Soybeans in Brazil Mirroring U.S. Penetration Curve, Creating Future Footprint for Growth CROP: Soybeans ROUNDUP READY SOYBEANS: Grow Roundup PENETRATION AS PERCENT OF OPPORTUNITY Ready penetration in Brazil to create 120% OBJECTIVE: platform for Roundup 100% Ready 2 Yield soybeans 80% 2008 STATUS 55% penetration in 60% Brazil consistent with • Brazil Roundup Ready U.S. trend in year five 40% soybean penetration expected to be 55 percent 20% of opportunity 0% 2012 OUTLOOK 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 6 7 • Potential to penetrate 95 8F '0 '9 '9 '9 '9 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 '0 percent of Brazilian acres U.S. Roundup Ready soybeans U.S. Roundup Ready soybeans at peak, establishing Brazil Roundup Ready soybeans Brazil Roundup Ready soybeans footprint for transition to insect-protected Roundup Ready 2 Yield soybeans 19
  20. 20. SOYBEANS Insect-Protected Soybeans Advanced to Phase III to Create Product Unique to Brazilian Market INSECT CONTROL OPPORTUNITY: BRAZIL GEOGRAPHY: Brazil TIPTON, GA – FIELD EFFICACY TRIAL – 2007 Continue to develop and launch pipeline OBJECTIVE: traits with more stacked offerings 2008 STATUS • Insect-protected soybeans advanced to Phase III CONTROL WITH GENE • Roundup Ready 2 Yield (NO INSECTICIDE) (NO INSECTICIDE) being tested in tropical BENEFITS ACREAGE OPPORTUNITY germplasm INSECT-PROTECTED • 4+ percent yield increase vs. insecticide- 50-60M acres infested with SOYBEANS treated soybeans lepidopteran insects in Brazil • Growers currently spray twice per season, at cost of $5.70/acre for insecticide and one application1 ROUNDUP READY 2 • 7-to-11 percent yield increase in U.S. 50-60M acres in Brazil YIELD germplasm; tropical germplasm testing in progress 20 1. Source: Kleffmann AMIS for insecticide cost and FNP Agrianual 2007 for spraying cost
  21. 21. SOYBEANS Three Soybean Traits Uniquely Advanced to Phase III, Bringing Soy Stacked Offerings Step Closer to Grower SOYBEAN UPGRADE UNDER WAY; CROP: Soybeans MARKET SEGMENTATION BY MID NEXT DECADE Continue to DICAMBA launch and U.S. SOYBEAN VALUE MODIFIED OIL TOLERANCE develop MARKET TRAITS pipeline OBJECTIVE: COMPETITIVE • Roundup Ready • $13+/acre for traits for PLATFORM 2 Yield in glyphosate new market for 2+ tolerance stacked ROUNDUP years plus 7-to-11 offerings READY 2 YIELD percent yield • Vistive III and 2008 STATUS advantage other modified oil traits being • Oil premium • Roundup Ready 2 Yield U.S. SOYBEANS: launched approved for U.S. and 60-70M ACRE MARKET ROUNDUP READY 2 Canadian planting and YIELD AND INSECT Japanese import; other PROTECTED export approvals pending BRAZIL SOYBEAN VALUE MARKET 2012 OUTLOOK • Insect-protected •$2.50-$3.00+ • Five trait stacks in Roundup Ready per acre for ROUNDUP READY soybeans feasible, with 2 Yield being glyphosate Roundup Ready 2 Yield as launched tolerance plus base trait for all 7-to-11 percent yield BRAZIL SOYBEANS: advantage 50-60M ACRE MARKET •Insecticide replacement 21
  22. 22. ROUNDUP Demand-Driven Ag Economy, Expanding Roundup Ready Acres and Conservation Tillage Fueling Roundup Growth $4,000 SEEDS & GENOMICS GROSS PROFIT ~$3.5B $3,500 ROUNDUP & OTHER GLYPHOSATE- GROSS PROFIT BASED HERBICIDES GROSS PROFIT GEOGRAPHY: Global $3,000 Maximize 16% OBJECTIVE: $2,500 return 27% CAGR ’01 to ‘08F 2008 STATUS $2,000 $1.3B to $1.4B • Roundup and other $1,500 glyphosate-based $1,000 herbicides expected to deliver $1.3 to $1.4 billion $500 of gross profit on 58% 1% CAGR ’01 to ‘08F increased volumes and $0 branded price above $13 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008F per equivalent gallon ROUNDUP GROSS PROFIT DRIVERS DEMAND DRIVEN VOLUME: • Increasing Roundup Ready acres for over-the-top application • Increasing fuel costs drive increased adoption of conservation tillage practices COMPETITIVE PRICING: • Conversion of other key glyphosate suppliers to western accounting practices • Rising glyphosate COGS for Chinese suppliers driven by more stringent environmental controls and increased raw material costs 22
  23. 23. SUMMARY Given Growth Opportunities, Monsanto Has Potential to Double Gross Profit Over the Next Five Years 2012 GROWTH RANGE MONSANTO GROSS PROFIT GROWTH TARGET Gross profit targeted to double from 2007 through 2012 $9,000 STRATEGIC PLAYBOOK $8,000 All growth is organic, from $7,000 base business and pipeline GROSS PROFIT (IN MILLIONS) $6,000 U.S. Corn International Corn $5,000 Soybeans Cotton $4,000 Seminis $3,000 R&D Pipeline Acquisitions to be pursued, $2,000 but are not included in this $1,000 growth projection $0 Earnings continue to translate into operating cash, and value 2004 2007 2012 MILESTONES created for shareowners 2010 2007 through combination of Gross margin Base Gross Profit: acquisitions, share target: 52-54% $4,286M repurchases and dividends ONGOING EPS GROWTH: MID-TO-HIGH TEENS 23
  24. 24. Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures Reconciliation of Free Cash Flow Fiscal Year 2008 Target $ Millions Net Cash Provided (Required) by Operations $1,950 - $2,050 Net Cash Provided (Required) by Investing Activities (1,050) Free Cash Flow $900 - $1,000 Net Cash Provided (Required) by Financing Activities N/A Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Cash and Cash Equivalents N/A Net Increase (Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents N/A 24

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