arvinmeritor FY2007
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  • 1. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call Chip McClure, Chairman, CEO & President Jim Donlon, Senior Vice President & CFO January 30, 2007 1
  • 2. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains statements relating to future results of the company (including certain projections and business trends) that are “forward-looking statements” as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words or phrases such as “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “should,” “are likely to be,” “will” and similar expressions. Actual results may differ materially from those projected as a result of certain risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to global economic and market cycles and conditions; the demand for commercial, specialty and light vehicles for which the company supplies products; risks inherent in operating abroad (including foreign currency exchange rates and potential disruption of production and supply due to terrorist attacks or acts of aggression); availability and cost of raw materials, including steel; OEM program delays; demand for and market acceptance of new and existing products; successful development of new products; reliance on major OEM customers; labor relations of the company, its suppliers and customers, including potential disruptions in supply of parts to our facilities or demand for our products due to work stoppages; the financial condition of the company’s suppliers and customers, including potential bankruptcies; possible adverse effects of any future suspension of normal trade credit terms by our suppliers; potential difficulties competing with companies that have avoided their existing contracts in bankruptcy and reorganization proceedings; successful integration of acquired or merged businesses; the ability to achieve the expected annual savings and synergies from past and future business combinations and the ability to achieve the expected benefits of restructuring actions; success and timing of potential divestitures; potential impairment of long-lived assets, including goodwill; competitive product and pricing pressures; the amount of the company’s debt; the ability of the company to continue to comply with covenants in its financing agreements; the ability of the company to access capital markets; credit ratings of the company’s debt; the outcome of existing and any future legal proceedings, including any litigation with respect to environmental or asbestos-related matters; rising costs of pension and other post-retirement benefits and possible changes in pension and other accounting rules; as well as other risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to those detailed herein and from time to time in other filings of the company with the SEC. These forward-looking statements are made only as of the date hereof, and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as otherwise required by law. 2
  • 3. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 Highlights • Earned $0.16 per share from continuing operations before special items in the fiscal first quarter - Results were adversely impacted by axle/ERP launch issue and VW Brussels work stoppage • Performance Plus initiative off to a solid start • FY 2007 EPS guidance before special items unchanged at $1.15 to $1.25 3
  • 4. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 Items Impacting First Quarter Domestic OEM Production Cuts • Big Three North America production 13% lower than prior year Axle Launch and New ERP System • Simultaneously launched a new axle product line and ERP system • Launch issues resulted in customer disruption • Reduced EBITDA by $13 million in the fiscal first quarter • Issue largely resolved, but may have some effects in Q2 VW Brussels Work Stoppage • Labor dispute at Golf & Polo plant led to work stoppage • Local ARM facility provides door modules on a JIT basis • Reduced EBITDA by $2 million in the quarter • Workers have returned and production has resumed, but uncertainties remain 4
  • 5. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 Improvement Areas • Higher margins in Light Vehicle Systems and Emissions Technologies • Higher Medium and Heavy Truck production in Europe • Higher than anticipated Specialty and Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket volumes 5
  • 6. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 Growth Strategy Sharpen focus on core areas for sustainable, profitable growth • Triple sales in Asia and with Asian OEMs within five years - $1 billion added sales in China - $300 million added sales in India - Healthy mix of local OEMs and global OEMs • Triple aftermarket sales • Generate compelling new products that create exceptional value for customers • Increase systems, controls and electronics capabilities 6
  • 7. Pathway to Change FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 Pillars of Performance Top Quartile Financial Performance Among Peer Companies Manufacturing Aftermarket Overhead Materials Product Growth ER&D Talent Excellence 7
  • 8. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 Performance Plus Success Factors Industry challenges Reason to change Executive alignment Agents of change Clear strategies Pathway to change Fast-start actions Momentum to change Strong balance sheet Resources to change Performance Plus will Transform ArvinMeritor into a Top-Quartile Financial Performer 8
  • 9. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 First Quarter Income Statement from Continuing Operations – Before Special Items (1) (in millions, except per share amounts) Three Months Ended December 31, Better/(Worse) 2006 2005 $ % Sales $ 2,340) $ 2,098) $ 242) 12% Cost of Sales (2,222) (1,966) (256) -13% GROSS MARGIN 118) 132) (14) -11% SG&A (86) (88) 2) 2% Gain on Divestitures 2) -) 2) OPERATING INCOME 34) 44) (10) -23% Equity in Earnings of Affiliates 9) 7) 2) 29% Interest Expense, Net and Other (27) (32) 5) 16% INCOME BEFORE INCOME TAXES 16) 19) (3) -16% Provision for Income Taxes (3) (4) 1) 25% Minority Interests (2) (3) 1) 33% INCOME FROM CONTINUING OPERATIONS $ 11) $ 12) $ (1) -8% DILUTED EARNINGS PER SHARE Continuing Operations $ 0.16) $ 0.17) $ (0.01) -6% 9 (1) See Appendix – “Non-GAAP Financial Information”
  • 10. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 Segment EBITDA Before Special Items (1) Quarter Ended December 31, (in millions) Better/(Worse) $ % 2006 2005 EBITDA Light Vehicle Systems $ 15 $ 13 $ 2) 15% Commercial Vehicle System 64 70 (6) -9% Emissions Technologies 7 5 2) 40% EBITDA $ 86 $ 88 (2) -2% Segment EBITDA Margins Light Vehicle Systems 3.2% 2.6% 0.6 pts Commercial Vehicle System 6.0% 7.5% -1.5 pts Emissions Technologies 0.9% 0.7% 0.2 pts Total EBITDA Margins 3.7% 4.2% -0.5 pts (1) See Appendix – “Non-GAAP Financial Information” 10
  • 11. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 LVS EBITDA Margins Improvement Fiscal Q1 2007 Compared to Fiscal Q1 2006 EBITDA Margin (1) Fiscal Q1 2006 2.6%) Lower Domestic OEM Production (1.3) Brussels Work Stoppage (0.2) Other Volume & Mix (0.2) Restructuring Savings 0.4 Cost Reductions 1.9 Net Improvement 0.6% Fiscal Q1 2007 3.2% (1) Excluding gains or losses on divestitures, restructuring costs, and other special items 11
  • 12. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 Balance Sheet Strengthening Net debt Debt-to-capitalization ratio (millions) 63% 61% Book value $1,648 59% $1,383 $1,356 55% 55% 57% 56% $945 $882 54% 51% Market value 2003 2004 2005 2006 Dec. 31 2003 2004 2005 2006 Dec. 31 Unfunded pension liability Term debt due within 5 years (millions) (millions) $948 $659 $696 $561 $299 $469 $409 $93 $93 2003 2004 2005 2006 Dec. 31 2003 2004 2005 2006 (1) See Appendix – “Non-GAAP Financial Information” 12
  • 13. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 Free Cash Flow (1) Quarter Ended December 31, 2006 2005 Income from Continuing Operations $ 11) $ 28) Net Spending (D&A less Capital Expenditures) 12) 1) Pension and Retiree Medical Net of Contributions (6) 5) Performance Working Capital (2) (41) 140) Year-end Payroll/Benefits Timing (60) (37) Off Balance Sheet Securitization and Factoring 15) 37) Gain on Divestitures (2) (23) Restructuring, Disc. Ops. and Other 7) (39) Free Cash Flow $ (64) $ 112) (1) See Appendix – “Non-GAAP Financial Information” (2) Change in payables less changes in receivables, inventory and customer tooling 13
  • 14. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 FY 2007 Light Vehicle Production Current Prior Percent (millions of vehicles) Forecast Forecast Change North America 15.3 15.8 (3)% Western Europe 16.1 16.1 – 14
  • 15. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 North America Class 8 Truck Volume Forecast (Thousands of vehicles) 200 CY 2005 CY 2006 CY 2007 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 78 89 92 93 85 65 35 50 50 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 235 15
  • 16. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 Western Europe Medium & Heavy Truck Volume Forecast (Thousands of vehicles) 462 CY 2005 CY 2006 CY 2007 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 111 116 114 98 123 132 123 97 110 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 475 16
  • 17. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 Fiscal Year 2007 Outlook Continuing Operations Before Special Items FY 2007 (in $millions except tax rate and EPS) Full Year Outlook (1) - Sales $ 8,900) $ 9,100 ) - EBITDA $ 375) $ 405) - Interest Expense $ (105) $ (112) - Effective Tax Rate 21% 24% - Income from Continuing Operations $ 82 $ 89 - Diluted Earnings Per Share $ 1.15 $ 1.25 - Free Cash Flow $ 75 $ 125 (1) Excluding gains or losses on divestitures, restructuring costs, and other special items 17
  • 18. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 FY 2007 Outlook vs. Prior Continuing Operations Before Special Items Sales Estimated ($million) EPS (1) Previous Guidance $8,700 – $8,900) $1.15 – $1.25) Q1 Launch Issue – (0.10) Lower N. America Light Vehicle Production (100) (0.05) Higher Truck Sales in Europe 200 0.15) Foreign Currency Translation 100 – Updated FY 2007 Guidance Range $8,900 – $9,100 $1.15 – $1.25 (1) Excluding gains or losses on divestitures, restructuring costs, and other special items 18
  • 19. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 FY 2007 Second Quarter Metrics Outlook Interest Expense $28 – 30 million Tax Rate 21 – 24% 19
  • 20. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 Appendix 20
  • 21. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 Use of Non-GAAP Financial Information In addition to the results reported in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States (“GAAP”) included throughout this presentation, the Company has provided information regarding income from continuing operations and diluted earnings per share before special items, which are non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are defined as reported income or loss from continuing operations and reported diluted earnings or loss per share from continuing operations plus or minus special items. Other non-GAAP financial measures include “EBITDA,” “net debt” and “free cash flow”. EBITDA is defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, and losses on sales of receivables, plus or minus special items. Net debt is defined as total debt less the fair value adjustment of notes due to interest rate swaps, less cash. Free cash flow represents net cash provided by operating activities less capital expenditures. Management believes that the non-GAAP financial measures used in this presentation are useful to both management and investors in their analysis of the Company’s financial position and results of operations. In particular, management believes that net debt is an important indicator of the Company’s overall leverage and free cash flow is useful in analyzing the Company’s ability to service and repay its debt. EBITDA is a meaningful measure of performance commonly used by management, the investment community and banking institutions to analyze operating performance and entity valuation. Further, management uses these non-GAAP measures for planning and forecasting in future periods. These non-GAAP measures should not be considered a substitute for the reported results prepared in accordance with GAAP. Neither net debt nor free cash flow should be considered substitutes for debt, cash provided by operating activities or other balance sheet or cash flow statement data prepared in accordance with GAAP or as a measure of financial position or liquidity. In addition, the calculation of free cash flow does not reflect cash used to service debt and thus, does not reflect funds available for investment or other discretionary uses. EBITDA should not be considered an alternative to net income as an indicator of operating performance or to cash flows as a measure of liquidity. These non-GAAP financial measures, as determined and presented by the Company, may not be comparable to related or similarly titled measures reported by other companies. Set forth on the following slides are reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures, if applicable, to the most directly comparable financial measures calculated and presented in accordance with GAAP. 21
  • 22. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 Non-GAAP Financial Information – 1st Qtr FY 2007 Results Before Special Items 3 Months Before (in millions, except per share amounts) Reported Taxes, Special Items 12/31/06 Restructuring Other 12/31/06 Sales $ 2,340 $ - $ - $ 2,340 Gross Margin 118 - - 118 Operating Income 33 1 - 34 Income From Continuing Operations 11 1 (1) 11 Diluted Earnings Per Share Continuing Operations $ 0.16 $ 0.01 $ (0.01) $ 0.16 EBITDA Light Vehicle Systems $ 15 $ - $ - $ 15 Commercial Vehicle Systems 64 - - 64 Emissions Technologies 6 1 - 7 $ 85 $ 1 $ - $ 86 Total EBITDA EBITDA Margins Light Vehicle Systems 3.2% 3.2% Commercial Vehicle Systems 6.0% 6.0% Emissions Technologies 0.7% 0.9% Total EBITDA Margins 3.6% 3.7% 22
  • 23. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 Non-GAAP Financial Information – 1st Qtr FY 2006 Results before Special Items (in millions, except per share amounts) 3 Months Before Reported Gains on Special Items 12/31/05 Divestitures Restructuring Tax 12/31/05 Sales $ 2,098 $ - $ - $ - $ 2,098 Gross Margin 132 - - - 132 Operating Income 66 (23) 1 - 44 Income From Continuing Operations 28 (14) 1 (3) 12 Diluted Earnings Per Share Continuing Operations $ 0.40 $ (0.20) $ 0.01 $ (0.04) $ 0.17 EBITDA Light Vehicle Systems $ 13 $ - $ - $ - $ 13 Commercial Vehicle Systems 92 (23) 1 - 70 Emissions Technologies 5 - - - 5 $ 110 $ (23) $ 1 $ - $ 88 Total EBITDA EBITDA Margins Light Vehicle Systems 2.6% 2.6% Commercial Vehicle Systems 9.9% 7.5% Emissions Technologies 0.7% 0.7% Total EBITDA Margins 5.2% 4.2% 23
  • 24. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 Non-GAAP Financial Information – 1st Qtr EBITDA Reconciliation Quarter Ended December 31, 2006 2005 Total Segment EBITDA Before Special Items $ 86 $ 88 Restructuring Costs (1) (1) Gain on Divestitures - 23 Loss on Sale of Receivables (2) - Depreciation and Amortization (43) (40) Interest Expense, Net and Other (27) (32) (2) (10) Provision for Income Taxes $ 11 $ 28 Income From Continuing Operations 24
  • 25. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 Non-GAAP Financial Information – Net Debt (in millions) 12/31/06 09/30/06 06/30/06 03/31/06 12/31/05 Short-term debt $ 137 $ 56 $ 65 $ 217 $ 106 Long-term debt 1,185 1,184 1,288 1,146 1,438 Total Debt 1,322 1,240 1,353 1,363 1,544 Less: Cash (369) (350) (365) (236) (302) Less: Fair value adjustment of notes (8) (8) (3) (7) (14) Net Debt $ 945 $ 882 $ 985 $ 1,120 $ 1,228 25
  • 26. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 Non-GAAP Financial Information – Free Cash Flow (in millions) Three Months Ended December 31, 2006 2005 Cash Provided By (Used For) Operating Activities $ (33) $ 151 Less: Capital expenditures (31) (39) Free Cash Flow $ (64) $ 112 26
  • 27. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 Other Balance Sheet Measures (in millions) 12/31/06 09/30/06 06/30/06 03/31/06 12/31/05 Minority Interests 67 65 67 63 69 Equity 999 944 1,132 1,022 877 Total Debt to Capital 55% 55% 53% 56% 62% Working Capital 235 146 248 338 208 Working Capital % of Sales (1) 2.0% 2.2% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 27
  • 28. FY 2007 First Quarter Earnings Conference Call January 30, 2007 28