Merrill Lynch Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference

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Merrill Lynch Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference

  1. 1. United States Steel Corporation Merrill Lynch Global Metals, Mining & Steel Conference May 2008 © United States Steel Corporation 2008
  2. 2. Forward-Looking Statements This presentation contains forward-looking statements with respect to market conditions, operating costs, shipments, prices and profit-based compensation payments. Some factors, among others, that could affect 2007 market conditions, costs, shipments and prices for both domestic operations and USSE include global product demand, prices and mix; global and company steel production levels; raw materials' availability and prices; plant operating performance; the timing and completion of facility projects; natural gas prices and usage and availability; changes in environmental, tax and other laws; the resumption of operation of steel facilities sold under the bankruptcy laws; employee strikes; power outages; and U.S. and global economic performance and political developments. Domestic steel shipments and prices could be affected by import levels and actions taken by the U.S. Government and its agencies. Political factors in Europe that may affect USSE’s results include, but are not limited to, taxation, nationalization, inflation, currency fluctuations, increased regulation, export quotas, tariffs, and other protectionist measures. The level of income from operations is the primary factor affecting payments under the USWA profit-based plans. In accordance with “safe harbor” provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, cautionary statements identifying important factors, but not necessarily all factors, that could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in the forward-looking statements have been included in the Form 10-K of U. S. Steel for the year ended December 31, 2007, and in subsequent filings for U. S. Steel. 2
  3. 3. United States Steel Corporation To grow responsibly while generating a competitive return on capital and meeting our financial and stakeholder obligations • 5th largest global steel producer – 31.7 mnt* • 2nd Largest North American flat-rolled steel producer – 24 mnt* • 2nd largest Central European flat-rolled steel producer – 7.4 mnt • Largest North American tubular producer – 2.8 mnt • North American raw materials balance • ROCE:** 2007 - 21% 2006 - 29% * Pro-Forma for Stelco acquisition 3 **ROCE = IFO/average(PPE + AR + Inventory – AP)
  4. 4. Flat-rolled segment Leading producer of high quality product • LTM 1Q’08 trade shipments – 18.1 million tons* 7 melt locations • Approximately 50% contract, 40% spot & 10% indexed (CRU) • Contract industries include: auto, appliance, tin and electrical • Demands sophisticated metallurgical applications with specialized customer service and technical support • Typical contract term 1-3 years • Contract business lessens impact of spot price fluctuations 4 * Pro-Forma for Stelco
  5. 5. U. S. Steel Canada Acquisition closed 10/31/07 Created 5th largest global steel company Complementary assets & attributes: Capability to ship approximately 900,000 tons of slabs to U. S. Steel facilities Improve U. S. Steel’s finishing facility utilization Annual synergies estimated to be in excess of $100 million: Sourcing semi-finished product Procurement, best practices and SG&A 5
  6. 6. U. S. Steel Canada Overview Raw Steel British Capability Columbia Alberta 4.9 Million Net Labrador Manitoba Tons: Seignelay Hamilton 2.3 Ontario Saskatchewan Quebec Lake Erie 2.6 Wabush Hibbing Raw Materials Minntac/ Tilden Keetac Ownership Hamilton Iron Ore Lake Erie Great Lakes Minority shares of: Gary Hibbing Taconite Mon Valley Tilden Mining Granite City Wabush Mining USSC Integrated Steel Mill Seignelay Reserve USSC Iron Ore Mining U. S. Steel Flat Rolled & Tubular U. S. Steel Iron Ore Mining Fairfield East Texas 66
  7. 7. European segment Plants in both Slovakia (5.0 mmt) and Serbia (2.4 mmt) • LTM 1Q’08 shipments – 6.1 million tons • Approximately 70% spot versus 30% contracts • Key industries: construction, service center, packaging and conversion • Dedicated new 386,000 tons automotive/appliance galvanize line in September, 2007 • Strong growth rates and heavy infrastructure investment 7
  8. 8. Tubular segment Oil country and Standard & Line pipe* • LTM 1Q’08 – 1.8 million tons: Seamless 865,000 tons Welded 925,000 tons • Primarily spot sales • Oil Country 63%, Standard & Line 32%, Specialty Tube 5% • Size ranges (outside diameter): Seamless –1.9” to 26” Welded – 1” to 20” • Shipments: NAFTA 95% International 5% * Pro-forma for Lone Star 8
  9. 9. Total U.S. Tubular Market Source: Preston Pipe Tons in Millions 20 OCTG USS Tubular Seamless Seamless Line 15 Imports Imports Standard 10 Welded Welded Mechanical Domestic Domestic 5 Structural Pressure Stainless 0 9
  10. 10. Improving Industry – Why invest in Steel? • Steel is a good product, provides excellent value • Major regions with increasing consumption rates • Governments mostly out of industry (ex China) • Metallics are tight, flatter cost curve • Low Valuation: 2008 P/E* 70.0x 63.0x 62.0x 54.0x 46.0x 38.0x 30.0x 22.6x 19.0x 18.9x 22.0x 14.3x 14.0x 6.0x s as l r ol te Ca ie ae od Se Pp t it Uil * Source: Bloomberg alr 10 Ri
  11. 11. Bullish on North America Optimistic outlook for North American integrated producers • Melt capacity relatively constrained • High metallic costs (iron ore & scrap) • High carbon costs (coal & coke) • High import transportation costs • Relatively weak US Dollar • Low imports and inventory 11
  12. 12. Growing International Demand Emerging markets continues to support strong global production World crude steel production* (million short tons) Share of global steel demand 1,500 1,200 900 600 300 0 2 0 0 7 ** 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 World China Developing Developed * Source: IISI ** Estimate Source: Macquarie 12
  13. 13. Strong business climate Selected Price Trends – Through April 2008 $475 $975 Shredded scrap composite $/Gross ton Hot rolled $/Net Ton $425 $875 $375 $775 $325 $675 $275 $575 $225 $475 $175 $375 $275 $125 $175 $75 O ct J a n -0 2 J a n -0 3 J a n -0 4 J a n -0 5 J a n -0 6 J a n -0 7 J a n -0 8 M ar J an F eb J une Sept M ay J u ly N ov D ec M a y -0 2 S e p -0 2 M a y -0 3 S e p -0 3 M a y -0 4 S e p -0 4 M a y -0 5 S e p -0 5 M a y -0 6 S e p -0 6 M a y -0 7 S e p -0 7 A p r il Aug 2002 2003 2004 2005 USA HR German HR East Asian HR 2006 2007 2008 Source: CRU and SBB. 13 Source: D.J. Joseph Company
  14. 14. U. S. Steel - Global Raw Materials Integration Control over key raw materials Estimated annual global requirements: Percent controlled – Production – Contract (volume & price) • Coking Coal – 12.5mnt • Coke – 12mnt 100 • Iron Ore – 37.5mnt • Second largest NA iron ore producer 80 produced 21 mmnt in 2007 reserves 849 mmnt 60 • Iron ore/coal mines and coke production located close to steel 40 operations or supported by cost competitive transportation facilities 20 • Produced 7.3 mmnt of coke in 2007 • International coke and coal prices are 0 high and volatile 8 9 08 09 08 09 '0 '0 e' e' e' e' al al r r k k Co Co Co Co O O • Exploring additional raw material n n Iro Iro integration opportunities Contract Own make 14
  15. 15. MSCI Flat Rolled Inventory January 2004 – March 2008 11,000 CRU price 1,400 $575 $655 10,000 Sheet Inventory ‘000 tons $510 Sheet Imports ‘000 tons 1,150 $740 $630 9,000 $565 $425 900 $402 8,000 $580 $520 $760 $550 650 7,000 6,000 400 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Apr-04 ct-04 Apr-05 ct-05 Apr-06 ct-06 Apr-07 ct-07 O O O O Sheet Inventory Sheet Imports Source: MSCI, U.S. Dept of Customs and Purchasing Magazine 15
  16. 16. Raw Material Cost - Impact on hot rolled band costs Raw material cost inflation has leveled the playing field – HRB cash cost $/ton $700 $599 $557 $600 7% $516 9% 15% $500 17% 13% 13% $400 $270 $300 $190 $204 41% 19% $200 24% 15% 24% 8% $100 66% 78% 52% 78% 51% 73% $0 '02 '08 '08 '02 '08 '02 1Q 2Q 2Q 2Q 1Q 1Q China & other low-labor cost steel US flat-rolled mini-mill steel NA integrated steel producers Producing countries producers Raw Materials Energy Labor Source: J.P. Morgan and company estimate 16
  17. 17. Capital Allocation – Building Value To grow responsibly while generating a competitive return on capital and meeting our financial and stakeholder obligations • Maintain strong capital structure • Focused capital spending plan • Responsible capital allocation • Remain shareholder focused Designed to improve shareholder value 17
  18. 18. Maintain strong capital structure – Building Value Balanced approach to capital allocation Since LTM 1/1/04 1Q’07 As of ($ in millions) Cash Provided by Operations $6,267 $1,644 Capital Spending $2,751 $708 Voluntary Pension & OPEB Funding $870 $140 Dividends Paid $301 $100 Increased 400% since 1/05* $849 $124 Stock Repurchases** 14.6 1.2 Millions of shares repurchased As of 4/1/08, 6.2 million shares remaining under current repurchase authorization * Dividend increased to $0.25/quarter effective with 3/10/08 payment ** Repurchase program initially authorized 7/05 18
  19. 19. Maintain strong capital structure – Building Value Key considerations Manageable legacy obligations – 2008 Pension: Pension OPEB Total As of 12/31/07 ($ in millions) • Defined benefit plan closed in 2003 $10,638 $4,089 $14,727 Benefit obligation OPEB: $10,861 $1,166 $12,027 Plan assets • Co-pays ($2,923) ($2,700) $223 Funded status • Inflation cap Pension OPEB Total 2008 Forecast ($ in millions) • Voluntary pension & VEBA $60 $140 $200 Net Periodic Expense contributions $142 $426 $568 Cash Flow* totaling $835 million since 1/1/04 Pension OPEB Key assumptions - 2008 7.94% 8.0% Expected return on assets 5.67% 5.69% Discount rate * Excludes any voluntary contributions 19
  20. 20. Capital Spending – Building Value U.S. Steel has spent less 2004 – 2006 Average CapEx per ton shipped than global peers in recent years $95 $100 Will likely incur higher $90 capex during next few $80 years concentrated on Capex per ton infrastructure, but will $70 likely remain below the $60 global average. $49 $50 $40 $31 $30 $20 $15 $10 $0 Nippon Arcelor - Mittal Thyssen Valin MNK Nucor Gerdau Average Evraz CSN Tata* AKS USS Liawu Severstal Corus JFE Bao Posco Source: Accenture * Estimated, pending 2006 final data 20
  21. 21. Making Steel - World Competitive - Building Value Investment considerations • Strong business climate • Improving industry and relatively low valuation • Favorable North American environment • Building value: Maintain strong capital structure Evaluate growth opportunities Improving infrastructure and product mix Responsible capital allocation Remain shareholder focused 21

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