direc tv group UBS 36th Annual Global Media and Telecommunications Conference

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    direc tv group UBS 36th Annual Global Media and Telecommunications Conference - Presentation Transcript

    1. UBS 36th Annual Global Media and Communications Conference Jon Rubin Senior VP of Financial Planning and Investor Relations December 8, 2008
    2. Cautionary Statement This presentation includes certain statements that may be considered to be, “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (“PSLRA”). These forward- looking statements generally can be identified by words such as “believe,” “expect,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “foresee,” “project” or other similar words or phrases. Similarly, statements that describe our objectives, plans or goals also are forward-looking statements. All of these forward- looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or from those expressed or implied by the relevant forward-looking statement. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: economic conditions; product demand and market acceptance; ability to improve customer service or create new and desirable programming content and interactive features; government action; political, economic and social uncertainties in many Latin American countries in which DTVLA operates; foreign currency exchange rates; competition; the outcome of legal proceedings; ability to achieve cost reductions; ability to renew programming contracts under favorable terms; technological risk; limitations on access to distribution channels reliance on satellites as a significant part of our infrastructure and we may face other risks described from time to time in periodic reports filed by us with the SEC. Non-GAAP Financials This presentation includes financial measures that are not determined in accordance with GAAP, such as Operating Profit before Depreciation and Amortization, Free Cash Flow and Cash Flow before Interest and Taxes. These financial measures should be used in conjunction with other GAAP financial measures and are not presented as an alternative measure of operating results, as determined in accordance with GAAP. DIRECTV management uses these measures to evaluate the profitability of DIRECTV U.S.’ subscriber base for the purpose of allocating resources to discretionary activities such as adding new subscribers, upgrading and retaining existing subscribers and for capital expenditures. A reconciliation of these measures to the nearest GAAP measure is posted on our website and is included at the end of this presentation package. 2
    3. DIRECTV’s Goal To offer the best TV experience through leadership in: Content HD, Exclusive, Sports, Original, Interactivity Technology User Interface, DVR/ Advanced Equipment, Internet, Whole Home Service Call Centers, Installer Network, Self Care 3
    4. Increasing Market Share… 2006 2007 YTD 9/30/08 Subscribers (K) Net Adds % Net Adds % Net Adds % DIRECTV U.S. 820 37% 878 44% 560 45% Dish Network 1,065 47% 675 34% 0 0% Cable 163 7% (520) (26)% (540) (43)% Verizon FiOS 205 9% 742 37% 672 54% AT&T U-Verse 3 0% 228 11% 550 44% Total Pay TV 2,256 100% 2,003 100% 1,242 100% Market 4
    5. And Increasing Subscriber Returns YTD Thru 2004 2005 2006 2007 9/30/08 ARPU $66.95 $69.61 $73.74 $79.05 $81.73 Churn 1.59% 1.70% 1.60% 1.51% 1.50% Variable Margin 39% 41% 40% 37% 42% SAC 643 642 641 692 711 After-Tax IRRs 23% 25% 29% 27% 33% 5
    6. Subscriber Growth Drivers Superior Programming/Services Most comprehensive SD, HD and DVR services Most sports/interactivity Stronger Sales and Marketing Advertising / National Offers Direct Sales Commercial Business Building the Brand “The 101” – Friday Night Lights, original shows and concerts New Services – DVR Scheduler, DIRECTV2PC, 1080P Video-on-Demand 6
    7. HD Channel Comparison Local 130* Premiums 102 National HD 75* 50 37 35 DIRECTV Verizon DISH AT&T Time Comcast Warner Los Los Los Florida Philadelphia Denver Angeles Angeles Angeles Based on October survey of websites *Excludes Games-only Regional Sports Networks and VOD 7
    8. Rapid Growth in HD/DVR Subscribers Net HD/DVR Subscriber Adds ~50% Penetration of Total Subscribers Comcast DIRECTV 41% Q4 07 500K 600K 30% Q1 08 450K 550K 6.6M Q2 08 150K 400K 21% 4.6M Q3 08 300K 450K LTM 1,400K 2,000K 3.0M Penetration ~30% ~50% of Sub Base 2005 2006 2007 2008E Cumulative HD/DVR Subscribers 8
    9. Attracting More Valuable Subscribers DIRECTV U.S. Subscriber Returns 2007 YTD Thru 9/30/08 Basic Basic Advanced Advanced Sub Sub Sub Sub Monthly Churn 1.9% 0.8% 1.9% 1.1% ARPU $62 $100 $62 $106 Variable Margin 33% 44% 34% 47% SAC* $575 $760 $600 $750 IRR 20% 59% 18% 66% * Includes credit for upfront fees 9
    10. A Large Opportunity ~40M U.S. Households are Expected to Sign-up for HD Service Over the Next 3 Years 83M 76M 72M 65M TV HHs with HDTVs 59M 54M 46M TV HHs with HD Service 39M 34M 23M 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Average of Analysts/Research Groups 10
    11. Interactive Services The Masters Golf Tournament NFL Sunday Ticket The Weather Channel News Mix 11
    12. Advertising / National Offers Drive 60% 40% of of Profits customers Index Demographics 120 Men 35+ 125 Married 121 Homeowner 130 Income >$70K 145 College+ 12
    13. Direct Sales Growth Direct Sales as a % of ~49% Total Gross Adds 43% 34% 1.6M 1.3M 2006 2007 2008E Targeted DIRECTV.COM 1-800 DIRECTV 13
    14. Commercial Business Growth Commercial Accounts DIRECTV Market Share Gross Additions Target Market = 6M+ Locations (Equivalent Units) ~190K 140K 130K 4% 2006 2007 2008E Business/Private Bars/Restaurants Hotels 14
    15. “The 101” Concert Blizzcon 15
    16. DIRECTV on Demand 16
    17. Enhanced Services NFL Supercast DIRECTV2PC DVR Scheduler 17
    18. Strong Financial Results DIRECTV U.S. YTD Thru YTD Thru Change $M except Margin 9/30/07 9/30/08 Revenue 11,150 12,569 13% Operating Profit Before 2,847 3,335 17% D&A (OPBDA) OPBDA Margin 25.5% 26.5% 100 Bps Capital Expenditures 1,784 1,240 (30)% Cash Flow Before 974 1,819 87% Interest & Taxes 18
    19. Strong Gross Additions Key Trends (000)’s 2007 2008 Change Favorable AT&T partnership Q1 929 964 4% Stronger brand Q2 900 894 (1)% Commercial / MDU / International growth Q3 1,032 1,002 (3)% Unfavorable Q4 986 Up over last year Weaker economy FiOS / U-Verse expansion Full 3,847 Up over last year Less upfront offer Year discounting 19
    20. Managing Churn Key Trends Favorable 2007 2008 Change Higher HD/DVR penetration Q1 1.44% 1.36% (8) bps AT&T partnership Further credit tightening Q2 1.58% 1.49% (9) bps Q3 1.61% 1.64% 3 bps Unfavorable FiOS/U-Verse expansion Up slightly from Q4 1.42% Weaker economy last year More disciplined upgrade/ retention offers Full Down slightly from 1.51% Year last year 20
    21. ARPU Growth Key Trends Favorable 2007 2008 Change Price increases Q1 5.2% 8.6% 340 bps HD/DVR monthly fees Q2 6.8% 7.0% 20 bps Unfavorable Q3 8.3% 6.1% (220) bps National offers/discounts Lease fees per home Q4 8.3% ~4% Free/lower equipment fees “Law of large numbers” Full 7.2% 6 - 6.5% Year 21
    22. Subscriber Acquisition Costs Key Trends YTD Thru Favorable $/Subscriber Change 9/30/07 9/30/08 Lower box costs More refurbished boxes Hardware 260 240 (8)% Owned & Operated installers Commissions/ 190 225 18% Direct Unfavorable Marketing Richer mix of HD-DVRs Installation 165 170 3% New products/services National 70 75 7% Broadband connection Advertising Whole Home solution Total SAC 684 711 4% Note: Includes expensed and capitalized costs 22
    23. Upgrade and Retention Key Trends YTD Thru Favorable $M Change 9/30/07 9/30/08 Decline in box costs Upgrades 680 480 (29)% Lower “pent-up” demand More refurbished boxes Retention 460 520 13% Unfavorable Swaps 130 100 (23)% Slower economy/greater competition Total Upgrade Richer mix of HD-DVRs 1,270 1,097 (14)% & Retention Loyalty program Note: Includes expensed and capitalized costs 23
    24. Increasing Margins YTD Thru Key Trends % of Revenues Change 9/30/07 9/30/08 Programming/ Greater cost controls & 41.7% 41.5% (0.2)% Other COS operating efficiencies Subscriber 7.6% 6.7% (0.9)% Subscriber Services Services G&A G&A/Broadcast 6.6% 6.8% 0.2% Operations Stabilize key costs Upgrade & 6.2% 5.8% (0.4)% Retention Expenses Programming Subscriber SAC 12.4% 12.7% 0.3% Acquisition Costs Upgrade & Retention Subtotal 74.5% 73.5% (1.0)% Operating Profit 25.5% 26.5% 1.0% Before D&A Margin 24
    25. Declining Capital Expenditures Key Trends YTD Thru Favorable $M 9/30/07 9/30/08 Change Lower box costs More refurbished boxes Set-Top Boxes 1,159 805 (31)% Completion of satellite expansion plan Basic/Other 476 343 (28)% Satellites 149 92 (38)% Unfavorable Richer mix of HD-DVRs New projects/new local Total CapEx 1,784 1,240 (30)% market launches Owned and Operated installers 25
    26. DIRECTV Latin America Overview ~5.5M Subscribers in the Region Sky Mexico 1.73M Subscribers Sky Brazil 59% Televisa 1.61M Subscribers 41% DIRECTV 74% DIRECTV 26% Globo PanAmericana 2.09M Subscribers 100% DIRECTV 26
    27. DIRECTV Latin America Rapid Subscriber Growth YTD Thru YTD Thru Change Subscriber Metrics 9/30/07 9/30/08 Gross Subscriber Additions 753K 1,052K 40% Monthly Churn Rate 1.40% 1.85% 45 bps 1.40% 1.59% 19 bps Excluding Brazil Adjustments Net Subscriber Additions 390K 463K 19% ARPU $46.98 $56.88 21% Subscriber Acquisition Cost $347 $400 15% (SAC) 27
    28. DIRECTV Latin America Strong Financial Results YTD Thru YTD Thru Change $M 9/30/07 9/30/08 Revenue 1,220 1,811 48% Operating Profit Before D&A 280 507 81% OPBDA Margin 23.0% 28.0% 500 bps Capital Expenditures 237 322 36% Cash Flow Before Interest & 105 218 108% Taxes Free Cash Flow 74 113 53% 28
    29. DIRECTV Latin America Strategy Drive Strong Subscriber Growth Offer the best content, technology and service throughout the region Establish HD leadership position Already launched: Argentina, Colombia, Venezuela, Chile and Puerto Rico Brazil launch: 2Q 2009 Aggressively market superior set-top boxes and DVR service Expand pre-paid service Leverage DIRECTV U.S. Capabilities Speed-to-market Advanced set-top boxes at a lower cost Access to exclusive programming Mitigate Currency Exposure ~80% of costs in local currency 29
    30. The DIRECTV Group (Consolidated) Generating Substantial Cash Flow YTD Thru YTD Thru Change $M except EPS and OPBDA Margin 9/30/07 9/30/08 Revenue 12,370 14,379 16% Operating Profit Before D&A (OPBDA) 3,067 3,791 24% OPBDA Margin 24.8% 26.4% 160 bps EPS $0.91 $1.05 15% Capital Expenditures 2,052 1,572 (23)% Cash Flow Before Interest & Taxes 968 1,954 102% Free Cash Flow 592 1,249 111% 30
    31. The DIRECTV Group (Consolidated) Strong Balance Sheet Share Repurchases Net Debt YTD Thru 2006 2007 $M 12/07 9/08 9/30/08 Shares (M) 184 86 69 Cash 1,083 2,988 Short Term Debt 48 95 Cum Shares (M) 184 270 339 Long Term Debt 3,347 5,755 Total Cost ($M) 2,977 2,025 1,838 Total Debt 3,395 5,850 Cum Cost ($M) 2,977 5,002 6,840 Net Debt 2,312 2,862 31
    32. Non-GAAP Financial Reconciliations Non-GAAP Financial Measure Reconciliation Schedules (Unaudited) DIRECTV HOLDINGS LLC (DIRECTV U.S.) Non-GAAP Financial Measure Reconciliation The DIRECTV Group (Unaudited) Reconciliation of Operating Profit Before Depreciation and Amortization to Operating 2 3 Reconciliation of Cash Flow Before Interest and Taxes and Free Cash Flow to Profit* Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities Nine Months Ended Nine Months Ended S eptember 30, S eptember 30, 2008 2007 2008 2007 (Dollars in Millions) (Dollars in Millions) Operating Profit Before Depreciation and Amortization $3,791 $3,067 Cash Flow Before Interest and Taxes $1,819 $974 Adjustments: S ubtract: Depreciation and amortization expense 1,675 1,198 Cash paid for interest (175) (162) Operating Profit $2,116 $1,869 Interest income 31 60 Income taxes paid (585) (624) S ubtotal - Free Cash Flow 1,090 248 Add Cash Paid For: *For a reconciliation of this non-GAAP financial measure for each of our segments, Property and equipment 343 476 please see the Notes to the Consolidated Financial Statements which will be included in S ubscriber leased equipment - subscriber acquisitions 432 580 The DIRECTV Group’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended Sept 30, 2008, filed with the SEC in November 2008. S ubscriber leased equipment - upgrade and retention 373 579 S atellites 92 149 Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities $2,330 $2,032 The DIRECTV Group Reconciliation of Cash Flow Before Interest and Taxes and Free Cash Flow to Cash flow before interest and taxes, w hich is a financial measure that is not determined in accordance w ith GAAP, is calculated by Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities deducting amounts under the captions “Cash paid for property and equipment”, “Cash paid for satellites”, “Cash paid for subscriber Nine Months Ended leased equipment – subscriber acquisitions” and “Cash paid for subscriber leased equipment – upgrade and retention” from “Net cash S eptember 30, provided by operating activities” from the Consolidated Statements of Cash Flow s and adding back net interest paid and “Cash paid for income taxes”. This financial measure should be used in conjunction w ith other GAAP financial measures and is not presented as an 2008 2007 alternative measure of cash flow s from operating activities, as determined in accordance w ith GAAP. The DIRECTV Group and DIRECTV (Dollars in Millions) U.S. management use cash flow before interest and taxes to evaluate the cash generated by our current subscriber base, net of capital Cash Flow Before Interest and Taxes $1,954 $968 expenditures, and excluding the impact of interest and taxes, for the purpose of allocating resources to activities such as adding new Adjustments: subscribers, retaining and upgrading existing subscribers, for additional capital expenditures and as a measure of performance for incenti Cash paid for interest (201) (176) Interest income 64 96 T he DIRECT V Group and DIRECT V U.S. believe this measure is useful to investors, along with other GAAP measures (such as cash flows from operating and investing activities), to compare our operating performance to other communications, entertainment and media companies. We Income taxes paid (568) (296) believe that investors also use current and projected cash flow before interest and taxes to determine the ability of our current and projected S ubtotal - Free Cash Flow 1,249 592 subscriber base to fund required and discretionary spending and to help determine the financial value of the company. Add Cash Paid For: Property and equipment 1,480 1,903 Free cash flow , w hich is a financial measure that is not determined in accordance w ith GAAP, is calculated by deducting amounts under S atellites 92 149 the captions “Cash paid for property and equipment”, “Cash paid for satellites”, “Cash paid for subscriber leased equipment – subscriber Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities $2,821 $2,644 acquisitions”, and “Cash paid for subscriber leased equipment – upgrade and retention” from “Net cash provided by operating activities” from the Consolidated Statements of Cash Flow s. This financial measure should be used in conjunction w ith other GAAP financial measures and is not presented as an alternative measure of cash flow s from operating activities, as determined in accordance w ith DIRECTV Latin America GAAP. The DIRECTV Group and DIRECTV U.S. management use free cash flow to evaluate the cash generated by our current subscriber Reconciliation of Cash Flow Before Interest and Taxes and Free Cash Flow to base, net of capital expenditures, for the purpose of allocating resources to activities such as adding new subscribers, retaining and upgrading existing subscribers, for additional capital expenditures and as a measure of performance for incentive compensation Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities purposes. The DIRECTV Group and DIRECTV U.S. believe this measure is useful to investors, along w ith other GAAP measures (such as c Nine Months Ended our operating performance to other communications, entertainment and media companies. We believe that investors also use current and S eptember 30, projected free cash flow to determine the ability of our current and projected subscriber base to fund required and discretionary 2008 2007 spending and to help determine the financial value of the company. (Dollars in Millions) Cash Flow Before Interest and Taxes $218 $105 Adjustments: Cash paid for interest (29) (21) Interest income 18 14 Income taxes paid (94) (24) S ubtotal - Free Cash Flow 113 74 Add Cash Paid For: Property and equipment 322 237 Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities $435 $311 33
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