Fourth Quarter UAL Investor Update

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Fourth Quarter UAL Investor Update

  1. 1. Investor Day February 5, 2008
  2. 2. Kathy Mikells VP – Investor Relations
  3. 3. Safe Harbor Statement And Non-GAAP Reconciliation The information included in this presentation contains certain statements that are “Forward-Looking Statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties related to the Company’s operations and the business environment in which it operates. Actual results may differ materially from any future results expressed or implied in such Forward-Looking Statements due to numerous factors, many of which are beyond the Company’s control, including factors set forth in the Company’s Form 10-K for 2006 and other subsequent Company reports filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Persons reviewing this present-ation are cautioned that the Forward-Looking Statements speak only as of the date made and are not guarantees of future performance. The Company undertakes no obligation to update any Forward-Looking Statements. Information regarding reconciliation of certain non-GAAP financial measures contained in this presentation is available on the Company's web site at www.united.com/ir
  4. 4. We Are Pursuing Multiple Approaches To Create Shareholder Value Strengthening The Core Airline Capital Structure Initiatives Return To Shareholders Unlocking Value In Ancillary Businesses Consolidation
  5. 5. Glenn Tilton Chairman, President & CEO
  6. 6. Our Strategic Plan Is A 5-Year Roadmap To Create Value For All Stakeholders We will be the global airline of choice for premium customers, employees and investors Investors Customers Employees Safety Safety Balancing the needs of all stakeholders and strengthening the core business
  7. 7. We Are Charting Our Own Course To Create Value For Shareholders • Strengthen the core airline – Consistently delivering superior service – Delivering differentiated products and services – Building employees’ connection and commitment to United Five Year – Developing new sources of revenue and controlling costs Plan • Disaggregating business units • Participate in consolidation given the right opportunity
  8. 8. Expanding Our Revenue Premium
  9. 9. John Tague EVP & Chief Revenue Officer
  10. 10. United’s Actions Produce Superior Revenue Performance Superior = Revenue Sales, Performance Mileage Plus and Innovative + Revenue Revenue Opportunities Management + • Leveraging customer relationships Effectiveness • Identifying new revenue sources Capacity + Discipline • Rational pricing • Effective inventory management Global Network • Matching supply with demand s lytic • Elimination of unprofitable service Ana gor/ n/Ri • Convenient service utio Exec • Global reach By ered • Profitable expansion Pow
  11. 11. Kevin Knight SVP – Planning
  12. 12. Network And Capacity Discipline Are Critical To Success Superior = Revenue Sales, Performance Mileage Plus and Innovative + Revenue Revenue Opportunities Management + • Leveraging customer relationships Effectiveness • Identifying new revenue sources Capacity + Discipline • Rational pricing • Effective inventory management Global Network • Matching supply with demand s lytic • Elimination of unprofitable service Ana gor/ n/Ri • Convenient service utio Exec • Global reach By ered • Profitable expansion Pow
  13. 13. United Has A Strong Global Network And Is The Second Largest U.S. Carrier • Global Reach • 225 Cities • 31 Countries • 3,568 Daily Departures • 5 Hubs Source: OAG TME Feb 08
  14. 14. Combined With Star Alliance, United Offers Unsurpassed Global Access Total Capacity (Billion ASMs) 748 748 15% Larger 652 652 34% Larger 557 557 Star Alliance Skyteam Oneworld Star Alliance Skyteam Oneworld 808 640 897 Cities Served 17,200 Daily Flights 14,500 8,400 18.5% 28.1% 24.3% Passenger Share Source: Star Alliance, Q4 2007
  15. 15. New Partnerships Solidify United’s Position As The Premier U.S. Carrier To China • Flag carrier of China • Service to 71 cities in China HRB • 39 international destinations Beijing SHE BAV • 213 aircraft INC DLC TYN China CGO LHW TAO NKG CZX WUH CKG CTU Shanghai HGH CSX • Sixth largest carrier in China KWE KWL KHN KMG FOC • Service to 48 cities in China CAN XMN SWA • 53 aircraft SZX NNG Source: Airline Websites; OAG Note: Application for membership for both airlines was accepted in 2007
  16. 16. Capacity Discipline: Matching Capacity With Profitable Demand Marginal capacity decisions impact more than Demand marginal revenue Capacity discipline enables revenue Profitable Demand management Optimizes results Price
  17. 17. Growing Internationally Where Demand Remains Strong UA International Capacity (Million ASMs) 80,000 R 5% CAG 60,000 40,000 20,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (E) Industry and United Revenue Growth Rate of 16% Source: United data; ATA (2003 – 2007)
  18. 18. We Are Taking Advantage Of Profitable International Opportunities % of Revenue By Region 2007 Los Angeles - Frankfurt Los Angeles - Hong Kong Dulles - Beijing Dulles - Kuwait (Daily) Dulles - Rome International Dulles - Rio De Janeiro (Seasonal) Domestic 50.1% 49.9% San Francisco - Frankfurt 2nd Daily San Francisco - Taipei 2008 Denver - London Heathrow San Francisco - Guangzhou Note: TME December 2007; International revenue includes domestic portion of international itineraries
  19. 19. United Has The Ability To Grow Internationally With Existing Fleet Product Reconfiguration 12% Aircraft Returning Incremental to Scheduled Capacity Growth Service Potential Increased Operating Efficiency Note: Capacity change measured in ASMs Hypothetical exercise – no commitments made
  20. 20. United Has Led The Industry In Capacity Discipline UA 2007 Domestic Capacity Growth • Eliminate UA H/(L) than Industry marginal flights • Utilize UAX to reduce capacity (1.8)% but maintain schedule (4.7)% (4.8)% • Tailor schedules (5.6)% (6.0)% to day of week (6.6)% demand Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 FY 2007 2007 2008 (e) 2008 (e) 2007 2007 Source: ATA carriers + WN mainline data; Financial statements and OAG
  21. 21. United Continues To Expand Its Domestic Network Domestic Non Stop Markets Served 402 398 389 373 364 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Note: 50 US states plus Canada mainline + UAX, excludes prorate and seasonal markets Source: OAG
  22. 22. Doug Leo VP – Revenue Management
  23. 23. Superior Revenue Management Is A Differentiator Superior = Revenue Sales, Performance Mileage Plus and Innovative + Revenue Revenue Opportunities Revenue Management Management + • Leveraging customer relationships Effectiveness Effectiveness • Identifying new revenue sources Capacity + Discipline • Rational pricing • Effective inventory management Global Network • Matching supply with demand s lytic • Elimination of unprofitable service Ana gor/ n/Ri • Convenient service utio Exec • Global reach By ered • Profitable expansion Pow
  24. 24. Our Focus On Execution Is Taking Us Down A Different Path Differentiation Similarities Opportunity Across Airlines • Sophisticated inventory • Back-to-basics execution management systems • Margin-based pricing • Consistent pricing actions philosophies • Enhanced segmentation • Similar pricing tools • State-of-the-art • Pricing driven by proprietary tools competitive matching • Well funded and staffed
  25. 25. Back To Basics Approach Better Facilitates Executional Excellence Segment on Fundamentals Grounded in Fundamentals Declare Targets and Actions Promotes Thoroughness Drives Consistency Monitor and Adjust Creates Transparency Permits Accountability Measure Results
  26. 26. Formalizing Process, Tools For New Approach Wiki Playbook Segmentation Concepts Capacity Advantaged Favorable Strong Yield Markets High LF Markets Capacity Factors Yield-Rich Markets with Moderate LFs Strong Yield Strategies Yield Mix Protection Strategies Disadvantaged Markets Unfavorable Stimulation Action Consider Capacity Reduction Unfavorable Favorable Demand & Yield Mix Factors Rigorous Monitoring Segmentation Tool
  27. 27. We Are Utilizing Our Market And Product Advantages To Price At A Premium Fare Snapshot New York (JFK) – Los Angeles (p.s.) UA Fare Premium vs. Competitor (%) UA Fare AA DL VX Fare Type Lowest First $2,483 315% 315% 453% Lowest Unrestricted $ 812 123% 123% 123% Lowest Restricted $ 264 56% 56% 56% 7% PRASM Growth Source: January Published fares; FY 2007 revenues
  28. 28. Our Actions Have Resulted In A Steady Improvement In PRASM Growth . . . System YOY PRASM United vs Industry Average 9.2% 8.9% 5.2% 4.8% 4.5% 4.0% 2.5% 2.3% 1Q 2007 2Q 2007 3Q 2007 4Q 2007 UA Adjusted (1) Industry ex UA YOY Capacity UA vs Industry (0.9) (0.9) (1.6) (2.9) (1)UA Adjusted for Mileage Plus under old accounting and special items Source: Air Transport Association
  29. 29. . . . With Strong Results Across The System United 2007 YOY PRASM 14% 12.5% 11.8% 12% 8.5% 10% 8% 6% 3.8% 4% 2% 0% Domestic Atlantic Pacific Latin Year-Over-Year Improvement in All Entities Source: Earnings releases of ATA carriers; UA adjusted for Mileage Plus under old accounting; excludes 36 to18 month impact All numbers are mainline only
  30. 30. Our Focus On Execution Extends Into The Cargo Division • Cargo integrated into route/ scheduling planning process – Contributes up to 10%-15% of revenue for some int’l routes • Implementing state-of-the-art cargo revenue management system – Phase 1 improved space utilization – Phase 2 (2008) will improve cargo mix and yield • Winning profitable new business – Regained U.S. domestic mail contract after relinquishing lower margin contract in 2H 2006
  31. 31. Continued Innovation Is The Key To Outperforming Competition • Improve segmentation tool Formalize and • Standard work/playbooks Sustain RM • Continuous improvement Process • Talent development/recruitment • Conditional revenue optimization Next Generation • Merchandizing considerations System Improvements • Business models of the future
  32. 32. Jeff Foland SVP – Worldwide Sales
  33. 33. Leveraging Our Relationships With Agency And Corporate Customers Superior = Revenue Sales, Performance Mileage Plus and Innovative + Revenue Revenue Opportunities Management + • Leveraging customer relationships Effectiveness • Identifying new revenue sources Capacity + Discipline • Rational pricing • Effective inventory management Global Network • Matching supply with demand s lytic • Elimination of unprofitable service Ana gor/ n/Ri • Convenient service utio Exec • Global reach By ered • Profitable expansion Pow
  34. 34. Effective Management Of Our B2B Portfolio Increases High-Yield Traffic Large Travel Incentive >50% passenger revenue Agencies & Agreements influenced via contracts Distributors and incentives Nearly 20% of passenger Large Corporate Share revenue under direct Corporate Agreements Buyers corporate contract Yield for corporate Individual contracted revenue Experience Corporate nearly double all other Enhancers Travelers
  35. 35. United’s B2B Sales Efforts Are Sharply Focused On Improving Margin Sales Discipline and Focus Margin Improvement • Portfolio analysis and management • Strengthen high yield • Contract modeling revenue core • Disciplined account management - and - • Innovative B2B programs • Reduce all sales and and offerings distribution costs • New tools and enablers • Quantitative goals and measures
  36. 36. Our Sales Approach Is Process-Driven, Analytical and Progressive Proprietary Tools Focused Training Defined Processes Customer Concerns • Why is United • Do we have a • What are my • Which • Did we make • Are we getting contacting us? problem? options? supplier best the right value from this meets our decision? decision? • What can United • How large is it? • What decision criteria? offer to us? criteria should • How quickly will • Does it justify we use? • What are the we see results? action? risks? • Which • Should we • What is the supplier best • Am I getting change? perfect meets our good value/ solution? criteria? fair price? 1.Generate & Process Stages 2.Develop Account Plans Screen Leads 3. Develop 4.Tailor Value 6.Negotiate & 7.Implement 8. Maximize 5.Build Deal Opportunity Proposition Close Program Value • Identify • Understand • Customize • Build preliminary • Present • Enable • Enable prospects customer value Deal based on proposal to maximum maximum value buying process proposition Deal Building Plan customer contract creation through Stage Objectives • Screen prospects and decision performance the Account • Identify • Develop multiple • Help customer • Assign sales criteria (d.c.) through timely, Review process potential scenarios and resolve channel for flawless • Stimulate need barriers and finalize proposal perceived • Resolve service qualified leads implementation for change develop risks & issues that • Establish proposal solutions barriers • Begin account threaten • Collect presentation development customer customer travel • Maximize strategy • Achieve win- perception of data perceived fit win result • Develop proposal value with d.c. discussion materials Quantitative Goals Pay for Performance Portfolio Management INVESTMENT/PROFIT MATRIX Data month: ANNUALIZED Incentive Compensation Scorecard for Lavallechaiken, Laurie Nov/06 Territory Code: D_US_CC_E_A1 Terr Name: Milwaukee N, WI Close Scorecard Sample Customer, LLC – Current Deal CSA SP Listing TMC SP Listing SAM TMC SP Listing Contracting Listing Incentive Calculator Notes Proposal 1 Proposal 2 Plan to Date Performance and Attainment Performance Goal Service Share UA Share Goal Share Attainment Goal Weight 45% 74% CSA Share Premium 7.4 pt 10.0 pt 22.8% 30.2% 32.8% 27% 154% TMC Share Premium 5.9 pt 2.3 pt 19.7% 25.6% 22.0% 31% 128% SAM TMC SP 10% 118% Attainment on SP metrics 68% 40% 98% Contracting (DVC, $000s) $6,350 $6,453 32% Sample Customer, LLC 112% Overall Attainment 100% Quarterly Payout Incentive Plan Details 35% Overall Attainment 112% Attainment Payout (% of Target) DISCOUNTS AND AMENITIES (D&A) 250% 8 Payout (% of Target) % of Target Payout 139.0% Less than 75% 0% 200% Illustrative 4% payout for every 1% attainment 150% Plan Target Payout $ 3,750 x 75% to 100% above 75% 30% 100% 7 100% plus 3.33% payout for every 9 Plan-end Projected Incentive $ 5,211 100% to 130% 1% attainment above 100% 50% Previous Quarter Payout 200% plus .147% payout for every 4 $ 1,875 - 130% to 300% 0% 1% attainment above 130% in this Plan Period 12 2 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% Estimated Quarter Payout $ 3,336 19 More than 300% 225% Attainment (%) 5 10 25% 15 Monthly Performance Trends 6 13 CSA Share Premium TMC Share Premium SAM TMC SP Attainment Contracting 8 175% 12 SAM TMC Attainment $7,000 7 150% 10 $6,000 20% 6 125% 14 DVC (000s) $5,000 8 TMC SP CSA SP 5 11 100% $4,000 4 6 75% $3,000 3 4 50% 20 $2,000 2 2 25% 1 $1,000 18 0% 0 0 $000 15% Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 17 Performance Goal Performance Goal Performance 100% Performance Goal 10% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% DEAL CONTRIBUTION
  37. 37. Our Disciplined Approach Is Yielding Positive Results With Large Agencies Reduced Agency Increased Agency Incentive Costs Revenue Performance 4.0 Revenue Share Premium* 3.0 14% Cost of Sale 2.0 1.0 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2007 2006 *Share Premium = market share minus “fair share” (the amount of share United should expect based on network and schedule alone) Data displayed for portfolio of all assigned North America agencies 4Q2007 data contains actual October and November and estimated December data
  38. 38. We Are Adding Smart New Business To Our Corporate Accounts Portfolio Corporate Portfolio Share Cumulative Corporate Customer Premium2 Acquisitions ($M) $450 12.0 $400 Net new acquisitions Losses1 $350 Revenue Share Premium 11.5 $300 $250 11.0 $200 $150 10.5 $100 $50 $0 10.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 2007 2006 2007 1) Not including purposeful walkaways 2) “Same Store” contracts with at least 18 months duration
  39. 39. We Are Now Applying This Approach To Our Global Portfolio Started In EMEA & Asia North America Late ’07/’08 ’05/’06 Late ’07/’08 Latin America EMEA: Europe, Middle East, Africa
  40. 40. Strong Execution Provides Further Opportunity To Increase Margin United Revenue Sales Management Margin Engine Process Agencies/ Distributors Disciplined Disproportionate High Yield Corporate Commercial Revenue Share Buyers Relationships • Contract performance ↑ • Commissions ↓ Business • Discount discipline ↑ Travelers • Credit card costs ↓ • Middle market penetration ↑ • SG&A ↓ • Global accounts development ↑
  41. 41. Dennis Cary SVP – Marketing
  42. 42. Developing New Revenue Sources And Leveraging Old Ones Superior = Revenue Sales, Performance Mileage Plus and Innovative + Revenue Revenue Opportunities Management + • Leveraging customer relationships Effectiveness • Identifying new revenue sources Capacity + Discipline • Rational pricing • Effective inventory management Global Network • Matching supply with demand s lytic • Elimination of unprofitable service Ana gor/ n/Ri • Convenient service utio Exec • Global reach By ered • Profitable expansion Pow
  43. 43. Mileage Plus Is Key To United’s Revenue Performance Core Program Strengths Core Program Strengths • Attractive awards • Attractive awards – World-wide travel – World-wide travel – First and Business Class – First and Business Class – Upgrades – Upgrades – Star Alliance award seats – Star Alliance award seats • Wide-range of accrual • Wide-range of accrual opportunities opportunities • Surplus inventory economics • Surplus inventory economics • Large enrolled and active • Large enrolled and active membership membership Over 1000+ Mileage Plus Partners Over 1000+ Mileage Plus Partners
  44. 44. Mileage Plus Has Millions Of Engaged Members With Highly Attractive Demographics Indexed to National Average 300 General 268 262 Members 250 Elite Members 192 186 200 167 145 150 100 National Average 50 0 Average Household Premium Credit Card Hold Advanced Degree Income Holder Source: Compiled from Mileage Plus and Acxiom data
  45. 45. Our Members Are Very Loyal Customers For United And Partners 2007 United Passenger Revenue Miles Issued to Third-Parties Excluding Airline Partners(1) Indexed to 2003 By Membership and Status 133% 141% 100% 111% 119% 133% 141% 100% 111% 119% Total revenue as a % of 2003 Total revenue as a % of 2003 CAGR= 9% Elite Members 31% Non- Members 46% General Members 23% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Generates Disproportionate Revenue Steady Sales Growth Generates Disproportionate Revenue Steady Sales Growth (1)Excludes Mileage Sales to United and its Airline Partners
  46. 46. Miles Issued To Partners Growing Faster Than Miles Issued To United Passengers Miles Issued Compound Annual Growth Rate 2007 Miles Issued 2003 to 2007 Other Airlines 10% 10% 9% 5% United 47% Non Airline 43% United Non Airline Other Airlines Nearly $1B in 2007 Non-Airline Mileage Sales Nearly $1B in 2007 Non-Airline Mileage Sales
  47. 47. We Are Innovating To Deliver Better Outcomes For Members, Partners And United • We are setting higher expectations for future credit card spend growth – Excellent alignment and support from Chase and Visa • We are applying increased business discipline to the issuance of miles • We are increasing redemption options for members at reasonable unit cost – Increases member satisfaction and accelerates revenue recognition • We are building momentum to increase breadth and depth of relationships with both members and partners
  48. 48. Developing New Revenue Sources And Leveraging Old Ones Superior = Revenue Sales, Performance Mileage Plus and Innovative + Revenue Revenue Opportunities Management + • Leveraging customer relationships Effectiveness • Identifying new revenue sources Capacity + Discipline • Rational pricing • Effective inventory management Global Network • Matching supply with demand s lytic • Elimination of unprofitable service Ana gor/ n/Ri • Convenient service utio Exec • Global reach By ered • Profitable expansion Pow
  49. 49. Merchandising Will Increase Revenue And Improve Customer Satisfaction • New product and service options allow customers to tailor their travel experience – Allows customers to buy services they value rather than paying for those they don’t • Will generate significant top and bottom line growth, as evidenced with seat up-sell • Merchandising does not depend on share shift; it should therefore be accretive to the industry
  50. 50. Strong Up-sell Results Demonstrate Merchandising Potential . . . Economy Plus and Premium Cabin Up-sell Revenue $250 $220M $200 $167M $ Millions $150 $99M $100 $42M $50 $0 2005 2006 2007 2008F Kiosk Other Expected Revenues united.com
  51. 51. . . . As Do Our Changes To Food Service In Domestic Economy Cabins Domestic Food Economics $103M $100 $75 $ Millions $50 $19M $25 $16M $0 $0 Cost Revenue Cost Revenue 2000 2007
  52. 52. Customers Indicate A Strong Appetite For New Products And Services Willing To Purchase Enhancements To Improve Their Travel Experience 100 83 73 80 62 Percent 56 Percent 60 40 20 0 Non-Member General Elite Super Elite Member
  53. 53. New Products Are Expected To Generate $400M Annual Revenue At Steady State Steady State Revenue Potential 120 $ Millions $110M 100 $80M 80 $ Millions $60M $60M 60 $40M 40 $30M $20M 20 0 Product 1 Product 2 Product 3 Product 4 Product 5 Product 6 Product 7
  54. 54. Additional Value Can Be Created By Unbundling Today’s Core Offering • We recently reduced the domestic Segmentation for Changes Segmentation for Changes to Baggage Allowance checked baggage allowance for to Baggage Allowance non-elite customers from 2 to 1 • We consider a number of factors Elites Non-Elites in making these changes: – Protect elite frequent flyers – Protect elite frequent flyers Refundable No Change No Change – Offer the ability to buy back – Offer the ability to buy back Tickets eliminated services eliminated services Domestic • If adopted by the industry, our • If adopted by the industry, our Economy No Change Reduced bag initiative is worth more than Non-Refund- bag initiative is worth more than Allowance able Tickets 2 to 1 $100M to United $100M to United
  55. 55. Merchandising Will Produce $1 Billion In Annual Revenue Within Five Years • Seat up-sell can double to $300M or more per year • Unbundling products that have traditionally been part of the basic offering can generate $200M-$300M • The initial set of seven new products are expected to generate $400M per year or more • Several initiatives will be launched by Fall 2008, with full deployment over the next few years
  56. 56. Questions & Answers
  57. 57. Building Best-In-Class Operations & Customer Experience
  58. 58. Graham Atkinson EVP & Chief Customer Officer
  59. 59. Our Goal Is To Create A Best-In-Class Experience For Premium Customers • Use unique portfolio of products and services to target distinct customer segments Capture • Win the premium “travel greater share experience” by creating of premium best-in-class customer customers experience on and off the plane • Enroll frontline to ensure efforts are sustainable Best-in-class experience worth >$200M in gross revenue
  60. 60. Premium Customer Contribution To Industry Revenue Continues To Grow • Our segmentation work shows that Premium Customers are growing in size and contribution Industry Share of Revenue as Estimated by Market Research CAGR 16% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% Premium 2004 2005 2007 Source: United Market Research
  61. 61. Best-In-Class Service Must Be Built On A Foundation Of Strong Operating Performance • Engaging and Thoughtful Service • Relaxing Experience Creating Creating Memorable Memorable • Personalized Rewards Experiences Experiences • Easy Processes • Helpful Employees Meeting And Exceeding Industry Standards • Problem Resolution • Reliability Consistently Getting Consistently Getting • Cleanliness The Basics Right The Basics Right • Courtesy Safety Safety
  62. 62. We Have A Clear Strategy To Create A Best-In-Class Customer Experience Process Employee Signature Best-In-Class Improvements Service Service Customer + + = Delivery Elements Experience To improve the To improve To create lasting basics and customer service customer impressions exceed industry through tools, with game-changing standards training and front- initiatives line leadership
  63. 63. Alex Marren VP – Operational Services & United Express
  64. 64. Best-In-Class Customer Experience Starts By Getting The Fundamentals Right Process Employee Signature Best-In-Class Improvements Service Service Customer + + = Delivery Elements Experience To improve the To improve To create lasting basics and customer service customer impressions exceed industry through tools, with game-changing standards training and front- initiatives line leadership

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