War of 1812

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War of 1812

  1. 1. Outline  Conflict StabilityDefinitions Model Analysis 2
  2. 2. Definitions Normal Form Game vs. Relational Game Relational Solution Concepts 3
  3. 3. The Graph Model of Conflict  4
  4. 4. Reachable List  5
  5. 5. Unilateral Improvement  6
  6. 6. Attitudes  7
  7. 7. Attitudes  8
  8. 8. Preference  Devoting Preference (DP) Aggressive Preference (AP)  9
  9. 9. Relational Preference  10
  10. 10. Relational Preference Total Relational Preference Total Relational Reply (TRP) (TRR)  11
  11. 11. Set of Preferences  Normal Form Game Relational Game  12
  12. 12. Nash Stability  Normal Form Game Relational Game  13
  13. 13. Sequential Stability  Normal Form Game Relational Game  14
  14. 14. General Meta Rationality  Normal Form Game Relational Game  15
  15. 15. Symmetric Meta Rationality  Normal Form Game Relational Game  16
  16. 16. The War of 1812  Conflict Model 17
  17. 17. History  The Americans declared war in 1812 for several reasons, including:  trade restrictions brought about by Britains ongoing war with France  the impressment of American merchant sailors into the Royal Navy  British support of American Indian tribes against American expansion  outrage over insults to national honor after humiliations on the high seas 18
  18. 18. Decision Makers The President of the United StatesAdmirals of the British Royal NavyThe British Prime MinisterGreat Britain 19
  19. 19. Feasible States DM Options Feasible States 1. Declaration of War N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y NUSA 2. Impose Trade Restrictions N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y 3.Repeal Impressment N N N Y Y Y N N N Y Y Y N N NGB 4.Repeal Orders of Council N N N N N N Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N 5.Escalate Conflict N N N N N N N N N N N N Y Y Y Label a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o 20
  20. 20. Graph Model  USA Moves c g a b h i m d j n o e f k l 21
  21. 21. Graph Model  GB Moves d a g j m 22
  22. 22. Graph Model  GB Moves e b h k n 23
  23. 23. Graph Model  GB Moves f c i l o 24
  24. 24. Preference Vectors DMs Ordering of States from Most to Least PreferredUSA j l d f g i c a k e h b m n oGB a c d f g i m o j l b e h n k 25
  25. 25. Attitudes  USA GB USA 0 - GB - + 26
  26. 26. Reachable ListsState  a b, c d, g, j, m b a, c e, h, k, n c a, b f, i, l, o d e, f a, g, j, m e d, f b, h, k, n f d, e c, i, l, o g h, i a, d, j, m h g, i b, e, k, n i g, h c, f, l, o j k, l a, d, g, m k j, l b, e, h, n l j, k c, f, i, o m n, o a, d, g, j n m, o b, e, h, k 27 o m, n c, f, i, l
  27. 27. Stability Analysis  Normal Solution Concepts Relational Solution Concepts Misperceptions 28
  28. 28. Normal Form AnalysisEquilibrium X X X X X X E X X X X X X X XUSA Nash Nash Nash Nash Nash SEQ SEQ SEQ SEQ U U U U U UStabilityUSA j l d f g i c a k e h b m n o j d g c j d g c m m l f i a nGB Stability Nash Nash Nash U U U U U U U U U U U UGB a c d f g i m o j l b e h n k a c a c a c a c b b b b d f d d f e e e g g i h 29 h m o n
  29. 29. Feasible States DM Options Feasible States 1. Declaration of War N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y NUSA 2. Impose Trade Restrictions N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y 3.Repeal Impressment N N N Y Y Y N N N Y Y Y N N NGB 4.Repeal Orders of Council N N N N N N Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N 5.Escalate Conflict N N N N N N N N N N N N Y Y Y Label a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o 30
  30. 30. Normal Form Analysis Nash  SEQ SMR GMR # of EQa GB GB, USA GB, USA 2b GB GB, USA GB, USA 2c GB, USA GB, USA GB, USA GB, USA 4d USA USA USA GB, USA 1e USA 0f USA GB, USA GB, USA 2g USA USA USA, GB USA, GB 2h GB, USA 1i USA USA, GB GB, USA 2j USA USA GB, USA GB, USA 2k USA USA USA 0l USA USA, GB USA, GB 2m USA USA GB GB 0n 0 31o GB GB 0
  31. 31. Relational Form AnalysisEquilibrium X  X X X X X X X X X X E X E XUSA U U U U U U U U RN RN RN RN U RN UStabilityUSA j l d f g i c a k e h b m n o k k e e h i b c n n l f i h b oGB Stability RN RN U U U U RN RN U U RN U U RN UGB a c d f g i m o j l b e h n k a c a c a c b b b d f e g i 32 h m o n
  32. 32. Feasible States DM Options Feasible States 1. Declaration of War N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y NUSA 2. Impose Trade Restrictions N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y 3.Repeal Impressment N N N Y Y Y N N N Y Y Y N N NGB 4.Repeal Orders of Council N N N N N N Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N 5.Escalate Conflict N N N N N N N N N N N N Y Y Y Label a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o 33
  33. 33. Relational Form Analysis RNash  RSEQ RSMR RGMR # of EQa GB GB GB GB 0b GB, USA GB, USA GB, USA GB, USA 4c GB GB GB GB 0d 0e USA USA USA USA 0f 0g 0h USA USA USA USA 0i 0j 0k USA USA USA USA 0l USA USA USA 0m GB GB GB GB 0n GB, USA GB, USA GB, USA GB, USA 4 34o GB GB GB GB 0
  34. 34. Hyper Game  Attitudes in hyper game of the war of 1812 USA GB DMs USA GB DMs USA GB USA 0 - USA + 0 GB - + GB 0 + A First level hyper game 35
  35. 35. Overall Stability AnalysisEquilibrium X X X X X X X X X X X E X X XUSA U U U U U U U U RN RN RN RN U RN UStabilityUSA j l d f g i c a k e h b m n o k k e e h i b c n n l f i h b oGB Stability RN RN U U U U U U U U RN U U U UGB a c d f g i m o j l b e h n k a c a c a c a c b b b b d f d d f e e e g g i h 36 h m o n
  36. 36. Feasible States DM Options Feasible States 1. Declaration of War N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y NUSA 2. Impose Trade Restrictions N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y N N Y 3.Repeal Impressment N N N Y Y Y N N N Y Y Y N N NGB 4.Repeal Orders of Council N N N N N N Y Y Y Y Y Y N N N 5.Escalate Conflict N N N N N N N N N N N N Y Y Y Label a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o 37
  37. 37. Reference  Conflict Analysis Approaches forInvestigating Attitudes and Misperceptions in the War of 1812 Takehiro INOHARA Keith W. HIPEL Sean WALKER Journal of system science and system engineering, 2007 38
  38. 38. Thank You for Your Attention Any Question? 39

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