The Art and Science of Decision-Making Doug Fertuck March 4, 2010
Elements of a Decision Doug Fertuck  www.fertuck.com 248-881-3244
Elements of a Marketing Decision Apply the lessons of the market and product analysis
Doug Fertuck  www.fertuck.com 248-881-3244 Potential serious surgical complications Surgery still an option Surgery still ...
Mind Map of Smart Decision Making Develop ways to manage the risk of your choice Trade-off desirability vs. probability Un...
Checklist for the Decision Process <ul><li>Are you defining the problem too narrowly? </li></ul><ul><li>Have you accuratel...
Checklist of Common Psychological Traps <ul><li>Are you favoring your first idea (“anchoring”)? </li></ul><ul><li>Are you ...
Focus of Breakout Session Apply the lessons of the market and product analysis
Breakout Mini-Project <ul><li>Define a decision problem </li></ul><ul><li>Identify the decision criteria </li></ul><ul><li...
Tips for Breakout <ul><li>Problem statement </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Understand the “trigger” or driver of the decision </li>...
Joan Florian, TTX Ingenuity LLC Doug Fertuck, Fertuck Enterprise Directions
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Decision Making BBCC 020410 Final

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Decision Making BBCC 020410 Final

  1. 1. The Art and Science of Decision-Making Doug Fertuck March 4, 2010
  2. 2. Elements of a Decision Doug Fertuck www.fertuck.com 248-881-3244
  3. 3. Elements of a Marketing Decision Apply the lessons of the market and product analysis
  4. 4. Doug Fertuck www.fertuck.com 248-881-3244 Potential serious surgical complications Surgery still an option Surgery still an option Pain Mobility Time/Cost/Insurance Total Score 7 6 2 15 5 4 2 11 3 2 1 6 3 2 6 11 5 4 8 17 5 4 6 15 6 6 6 18 4 3 6 13
  5. 5. Mind Map of Smart Decision Making Develop ways to manage the risk of your choice Trade-off desirability vs. probability Understand your risk tolerance to choose under uncertainty Use decision trees to model the process Understand the consequences of each outcome Assign probabilities to each outcome Define possible outcomes for each uncertainty Identify key uncertainties Address Uncertainty If Necessary Rethink the unsure judgments Seek information as necessary to make informed swaps Simplify a complex decision the even swap method Eliminate the dominated tradeoffs Make the Necessary Tradeoffs Understand if there is meaningful uncertainty Seek judgments of others selectively Use objective measures and scales as appropriate Imagine yourself in the future as you assess Assess each alternative against each objective (Consequences Table) Describe the Consequences Know when to quit Gather data as appropriate Seek other ideas after exhausting your own Don't prejudge; challenge constraints Develop a range of alternatives by thinking &quot;how” to meet the objectives Generate Alternatives Clarify and test your thinking Focus on ends not means Brainstorm all your concerns and wishes What do you really need and want? Define the Objectives or Decision Criteria Be creative, expansive, and critical Generate alternative problem definitions Challenge the constraints What is the &quot;trigger” driving the need to make a decision? Define the Decision Problem Doug Fertuck www.fertuck.com 248-881-3244 Make a Smart Decision
  6. 6. Checklist for the Decision Process <ul><li>Are you defining the problem too narrowly? </li></ul><ul><li>Have you accurately defined all the important criteria? </li></ul><ul><li>Have you generated a wide range of alternatives? </li></ul><ul><li>Are you overlooking important consequences? </li></ul><ul><li>Are your evaluations of alternatives consistent? </li></ul><ul><li>Have you identified the key uncertainties? </li></ul><ul><li>Can you take action to manage risks? </li></ul>
  7. 7. Checklist of Common Psychological Traps <ul><li>Are you favoring your first idea (“anchoring”)? </li></ul><ul><li>Are you inclined to keep doing what you are doing? </li></ul><ul><li>Are you protecting an earlier decision (“sunk-cost”)? </li></ul><ul><li>Do you want to jump to something completely different (“throwing the baby out with the bathwater”)? </li></ul><ul><li>Are you slanting probabilities and estimates “just to be safe”? </li></ul><ul><li>Are you being overly influenced by rare, dramatic events? </li></ul><ul><li>Are you ignoring relevant information? </li></ul><ul><li>Are you seeing patterns in random events? </li></ul>
  8. 8. Focus of Breakout Session Apply the lessons of the market and product analysis
  9. 9. Breakout Mini-Project <ul><li>Define a decision problem </li></ul><ul><li>Identify the decision criteria </li></ul><ul><li>Note which are the 3 most important criteria and why? </li></ul><ul><li>Share results with a buddy </li></ul><ul><li>Present to entire group (if chosen) </li></ul>5 min 5 min 5 min
  10. 10. Tips for Breakout <ul><li>Problem statement </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Understand the “trigger” or driver of the decision </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Question constraints or “can’t dos” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Generate alternative problem definitions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Be creative and expansive </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Criteria or Objectives </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What do you really need and want? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Brainstorm all your wishes and concerns </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Focus in ends not means </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Imagine the future and test you thinking </li></ul></ul>
  11. 11. Joan Florian, TTX Ingenuity LLC Doug Fertuck, Fertuck Enterprise Directions

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