PAST-CLIMATE AS THE KEY TO      UNDERSTAND THE FUTURE:EXAMPLE FROM THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA              VINCENZO PASCUCCI   ...
Climate is changing?         Which are the evidences?         Is this a normal process?Which have been recent past climati...
PATHWAY…-    ACTUALISM     1. PRESENT CLIMAT     2. CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE-    PAST     1. GEOLOGICAL EVIDENCES OF      ...
WHAT INFLUENCE THE CLIMATE OF THE EARTH:      1. EARTH ORBIT AROUND THE SUN                                  yearly
pCL                            eI                            rMA                            mT                            ...
3. GREAT OCEAN CONVEYOR BELT          500 year to make the all circuit
WHAT INFLUENCECLIMATE CHANGES?      ?
PLATE TECTONICS: long time(millions of year = radical changes)
Justanexample
Orbital forces: short time          (thousand of years = long lasting changes)               today the Earth axis is 23°27...
Sun spots (hundreds to tens of years 500-11y)  short time  climate changes = sensible                 The change in the n...
EARTH TEMPERATURE
ANTARTICA & GREENLAND ICE DRILLING PROJECT
EPICA & VOSTOK(ice drilling project)
Main results are:1. 8 glacial stages occurred during the last 740ky;2. Interglacial past stages were as much warm as today...
What about CO2?   Man has input more CO2                  in the atmosphere in the                  last 200y than the ear...
Form Marine Isotopic Stages (MIS) toGlacial and Interglacial stages: the last 300ky …. Isotopic stages MIS (even=caluroso;...
The present interglacial stage: the last 11ky
1 warm every 1KY
Hannibal crosses the Alps with the elephants during the warm roman time
CLIMATE CHANGES OF THE LAST 1000 ANNI (ΔT = ±2 °C)           important changes every 500y
THE LAST 30y        ΔT = ± 0.774 °C last coldest years 2007-08-09(the most sensible to humans)
TOOLS TO PERFORM        PALEOCLIMATE STUDIES•   Sedimentology  paleoenvironments•   Stratigraphy  events order•   Geomor...
GEOLOGICAL ARCHIVES• ANTARCTIC – GREENLAND (ICE)• SARDINIA (ROCKS)• ALPS (ROCKS & ICE)
ITALY  SARDINIATectonically stable since Pliocene and in the Mid of the Mediterranean Sea
PAST GEOLOGICAL EVIDENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGES         SARDINIA (ITALY) WEST COAST             1. CAPO CACCIA CAVES
CAPO CACCIA SUBMERGED CAVES
CAPO CACCIA:                 Partially submerged cavessea level height reached about 125ky         + 4m
-7mCervo Sardo bones (deer extinguished around40-30ky) are found into speleothems
-7mCervo Sardo bones (deer extinguished around40-30ky) are found into speleothems
SEA LEVEL MARKERS AND DEER BONES INDICATE THAT  CAPO CACCIA CAVES WHERE FLOODED BY SEA RISEAROUND 125KY AND SUBSEQUENTLY E...
WEST SARDINIA: 2. prograding ancient beaches              SEDIMENTOLOGY
Detail: 2 relatively shallow water features   today some meters above sea level                                 2         ...
32
32       3    2
3    2            3        23             paleosoil2
OSL ages                           dunes           3               2  Beaches and paleosoils
….moreover, tropical warm fauna in beach deposits      STROMBUS      BUBONIUS
Additional items: 3. tidal notch and dunes                      4. Tidal notch(s) +2/4m                  DUNES
Things to remember• 1-4 features:  – 1. fossiliferous/gravelly beach-shoreface (about    125ky);  – 2. silicoclastic beach...
PAST GEOLOGICAL EVIDENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGES         SARDINIA (ITALY) EST COAST         CALA GONONE (OROSEI GULF)
FEATURES INDICATING SEA LEVEL CHANGES1. OLD NOTCH(S) (4/8 m asl)   MODERN NOTCH
2. Bue Marino Cave aeolian sedimentsMedium-coarse grained                BUE 1 samplebioclastic-rich sand, blown by thewin...
2. BUE MARINO CAVE SEDIMENTS: AGES                                                                       BUE 1-5:         ...
FEATURES INDICATING CLIMATE CHANGES:3. COARSE ALLUVIAL FAN (dated at 45ky OSL)
4. U-SHAPED VALLEY
5. PERIGLACIAL DEPOSITS “ÉBULIS ORDONNÉ” (18-20 ky)
now forming as cryo-clastic processes in the alps…
Things to remember• 1-4 features:  – 1. notch(s) (about 125ky) (sea level 4/6 m higher);  – 2. cave sediments (aeolian) (a...
DATA INTERPRETATION
SEA LEVEL CHANGES•   125ky (MIS 5) SL was at least +4m higher than today;•   Since 80ky (end of MIS 5) sea level started t...
TEMPERATURES AND CLIMATE• 125-95 ky (MIS 5e) temp was at least +2/4 °C higher than today  (subtropical climate and beaches...
CA    CP    AO    P    OCA    CC    AC    CI    CA    I    A20    TK    OY    D    AA   YGO
CA    CP    AO    P    OCA    CC    AC    CI    CA    I    A20    TK    OY    D    AA   YGO
WHAT IS NEW?1. SEA LEVEL CHANGES
SEA LEVEL FLUCTUATION DURING THE LAST            INTERGLACIAL 130-80 KY(5 SUBSTAGES ABOUT 10KY EACH SEPARATED BY ASTRONG E...
10 ky cycles may be referred to:• Subprecessional (or sub Milankovitch cycles);  – This short-time cycles can increase or ...
Just an example: at the beginning of this interglacial,in about 10 ky, the ice melted more or less completely.  This fast ...
SEA LEVEL RISE AFTER THE LGM (18KY)…1 m rise every 100 years up to about 7/6ky, after that sea level         become more o...
…Y ITALIA SE CONVIRTIO’ EN BOTA!!!!   20ky ago   In blu glaciers   6ky ago
Further studies• Better characterize and explain the events occurred  during the last interglacial;• Amount of dust in the...
Last example… thermal fluctuation of the      North Atlantic Ocean (AMO)   last 100 years Mountain glaciers increase when ...
Forecast based on past (BLU LINE)Forecast based on global warming idea (RED LINE)
So what is going on?        ?
We will fire in the hellish earth!!!
…or we will die iced!!!
A possibility is also that someone is joking with us usingclimate change as personal purpose to become famous!!!
….but because                                   everybody wants                                   to speak about          ...
GRACIas          Le nuvole del cielo disegnano          la mia strada del ritorno,ma          solo tu raggio di sole sai q...
Paleoclimate: past-climate as the key to understand the future. Example from the Mediterranean Sea
Paleoclimate: past-climate as the key to understand the future. Example from the Mediterranean Sea
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Paleoclimate: past-climate as the key to understand the future. Example from the Mediterranean Sea

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Conferencia impartida por Vincenzo Pascucci el 1 de abril de 2011 en el marco de los Viernes Científicos, actividad organizada por la Facultad de Ciencias Experimentales de la Universidad de Almería

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Paleoclimate: past-climate as the key to understand the future. Example from the Mediterranean Sea

  1. 1. PAST-CLIMATE AS THE KEY TO UNDERSTAND THE FUTURE:EXAMPLE FROM THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA VINCENZO PASCUCCI DIPARTIMENTO DI SCIENZE BOTANICHE, ECOLOGICHE E GEOLOGICHE UNIVERSITA’ DI SASSARI pascucci@uniss.it
  2. 2. Climate is changing? Which are the evidences? Is this a normal process?Which have been recent past climatic changes? Which has been their impact? Can we say something?
  3. 3. PATHWAY…- ACTUALISM 1. PRESENT CLIMAT 2. CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE- PAST 1. GEOLOGICAL EVIDENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGES (SARDINIA) - CLIMATIC CHANGES OF THE LAST 125 KY
  4. 4. WHAT INFLUENCE THE CLIMATE OF THE EARTH: 1. EARTH ORBIT AROUND THE SUN yearly
  5. 5. pCL eI rMA mT aIC n eBE nL tT 2. LATITUDE & ALTITUDE
  6. 6. 3. GREAT OCEAN CONVEYOR BELT 500 year to make the all circuit
  7. 7. WHAT INFLUENCECLIMATE CHANGES? ?
  8. 8. PLATE TECTONICS: long time(millions of year = radical changes)
  9. 9. Justanexample
  10. 10. Orbital forces: short time (thousand of years = long lasting changes) today the Earth axis is 23°27’ inclinedMilankovitch cycles
  11. 11. Sun spots (hundreds to tens of years 500-11y) short time  climate changes = sensible The change in the number of sunspots and in solar activity (deduced from studies of carbon-14 concentrations in the wood of tree rings and of beryllium-10 in ice cores) suggests that there have been various exceptional periods of solar weakness during the last millennium, namely, the Wolf (around 1300), Spoerer (around 1500), Maunder (between 1645 and 1715) and Dalton (1800-1830) periods. These low points were most likely preceded by a period of maximum solar activity, the Medieval Solar Maximum (between 1100 and 1250) (Jirikowic, 1994). According to some authors, a similar maximum, the Contemporary Solar Maximum, is occurring right now and is caused by a rise in the magnetic activity of the solar corona during the 20th century (Lockwood, 1999). Basing their conclusions on models, some authors believe that the solar activity of the last 70 years is the most intense of the last 8,000 years (Solanki, 2004). 2009
  12. 12. EARTH TEMPERATURE
  13. 13. ANTARTICA & GREENLAND ICE DRILLING PROJECT
  14. 14. EPICA & VOSTOK(ice drilling project)
  15. 15. Main results are:1. 8 glacial stages occurred during the last 740ky;2. Interglacial past stages were as much warm as today;3. Without human effect the present interglacial stage will last other 15ky;4. CO2 concentration is the highest of the last 444ky
  16. 16. What about CO2? Man has input more CO2 in the atmosphere in the last 200y than the earth system in 20ky… however normally an increase of CO2 into the system precedes the beginning of a glacial stage!!!! CO2 T
  17. 17. Form Marine Isotopic Stages (MIS) toGlacial and Interglacial stages: the last 300ky …. Isotopic stages MIS (even=caluroso; odds=frio)…simple!!!
  18. 18. The present interglacial stage: the last 11ky
  19. 19. 1 warm every 1KY
  20. 20. Hannibal crosses the Alps with the elephants during the warm roman time
  21. 21. CLIMATE CHANGES OF THE LAST 1000 ANNI (ΔT = ±2 °C) important changes every 500y
  22. 22. THE LAST 30y ΔT = ± 0.774 °C last coldest years 2007-08-09(the most sensible to humans)
  23. 23. TOOLS TO PERFORM PALEOCLIMATE STUDIES• Sedimentology  paleoenvironments• Stratigraphy  events order• Geomorphology  processes• Geochronology  time• Geochemistry  past atmosphere vs present (i.e. δ 18/16O)
  24. 24. GEOLOGICAL ARCHIVES• ANTARCTIC – GREENLAND (ICE)• SARDINIA (ROCKS)• ALPS (ROCKS & ICE)
  25. 25. ITALY  SARDINIATectonically stable since Pliocene and in the Mid of the Mediterranean Sea
  26. 26. PAST GEOLOGICAL EVIDENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGES SARDINIA (ITALY) WEST COAST 1. CAPO CACCIA CAVES
  27. 27. CAPO CACCIA SUBMERGED CAVES
  28. 28. CAPO CACCIA: Partially submerged cavessea level height reached about 125ky + 4m
  29. 29. -7mCervo Sardo bones (deer extinguished around40-30ky) are found into speleothems
  30. 30. -7mCervo Sardo bones (deer extinguished around40-30ky) are found into speleothems
  31. 31. SEA LEVEL MARKERS AND DEER BONES INDICATE THAT CAPO CACCIA CAVES WHERE FLOODED BY SEA RISEAROUND 125KY AND SUBSEQUENTLY EMERGED DUE TO SEA LEVEL FALL
  32. 32. WEST SARDINIA: 2. prograding ancient beaches SEDIMENTOLOGY
  33. 33. Detail: 2 relatively shallow water features today some meters above sea level 2 1ALGHERO
  34. 34. 32
  35. 35. 32 3 2
  36. 36. 3 2 3 23 paleosoil2
  37. 37. OSL ages dunes 3 2 Beaches and paleosoils
  38. 38. ….moreover, tropical warm fauna in beach deposits STROMBUS BUBONIUS
  39. 39. Additional items: 3. tidal notch and dunes 4. Tidal notch(s) +2/4m DUNES
  40. 40. Things to remember• 1-4 features: – 1. fossiliferous/gravelly beach-shoreface (about 125ky); – 2. silicoclastic beach (about 100ky); – 3. dunes (about 77-47 ky); – 4. tidal notch(s) partially covered by dunes (125-100 ky);
  41. 41. PAST GEOLOGICAL EVIDENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGES SARDINIA (ITALY) EST COAST CALA GONONE (OROSEI GULF)
  42. 42. FEATURES INDICATING SEA LEVEL CHANGES1. OLD NOTCH(S) (4/8 m asl) MODERN NOTCH
  43. 43. 2. Bue Marino Cave aeolian sedimentsMedium-coarse grained BUE 1 samplebioclastic-rich sand, blown by thewind into the cave from a marinesource (shelf/beach) BUE 5 sample BUE 2 sample
  44. 44. 2. BUE MARINO CAVE SEDIMENTS: AGES BUE 1-5: 80-100KYAL: Speleothem samples, BUE: sediment samples1: Jurassic limestone; 2: clastic sediments; 3: Lithophaga boreholesOSL age Clastic sedimentary infill pre-date the notch referred at 125ky
  45. 45. FEATURES INDICATING CLIMATE CHANGES:3. COARSE ALLUVIAL FAN (dated at 45ky OSL)
  46. 46. 4. U-SHAPED VALLEY
  47. 47. 5. PERIGLACIAL DEPOSITS “ÉBULIS ORDONNÉ” (18-20 ky)
  48. 48. now forming as cryo-clastic processes in the alps…
  49. 49. Things to remember• 1-4 features: – 1. notch(s) (about 125ky) (sea level 4/6 m higher); – 2. cave sediments (aeolian) (about 100-80 ky) (input from an exposed sandy shelf during a relative sea level fall) ; – 3. coarse alluvial fan (about 40 ky); – 4. u-shaped valley (no age data); – 5. periglacial deposits (?18-20ky)
  50. 50. DATA INTERPRETATION
  51. 51. SEA LEVEL CHANGES• 125ky (MIS 5) SL was at least +4m higher than today;• Since 80ky (end of MIS 5) sea level started to fall;• It reached the max of -130 bpsl about 20-18ky (MIS 2);• From 17-11ky sea level raised very fast (end MIS2);• We are in a highstand since 10ky (MIS 1) that should last for other about 15ky (without human influence)
  52. 52. TEMPERATURES AND CLIMATE• 125-95 ky (MIS 5e) temp was at least +2/4 °C higher than today (subtropical climate and beaches formation). Apex of interglacial;• 90-80ky (MIS 5a) temp cooled down (-3/4 °C lower than today, soils formation) (warm and humid). End of interglacial;• 60-45ky (MIS 4) temp was -6/8 °C lower than today (cryoclast, u- shaped valley, exposure of shelf and dune formation) (cold and humiddry);• 45-20ky (MIS 3-2) temp was -8/10 °C lower than today (wide cryoclast deposits and dune formation) (cold and very dry) Apex of glacial
  53. 53. CA CP AO P OCA CC AC CI CA I A20 TK OY D AA YGO
  54. 54. CA CP AO P OCA CC AC CI CA I A20 TK OY D AA YGO
  55. 55. WHAT IS NEW?1. SEA LEVEL CHANGES
  56. 56. SEA LEVEL FLUCTUATION DURING THE LAST INTERGLACIAL 130-80 KY(5 SUBSTAGES ABOUT 10KY EACH SEPARATED BY ASTRONG EROSIONAL UNCONFORMITY; 2 ASL, 1 BSL) -bsl? +1m +4-6m
  57. 57. 10 ky cycles may be referred to:• Subprecessional (or sub Milankovitch cycles); – This short-time cycles can increase or decrease the temperature of some degrees; – At this moment it is not clear at all the origin of the short-time cycles because very often they are non linear and in cases they have been correlated to dust aerosols present in the atmosphere); – Solar irradiation variations;
  58. 58. Just an example: at the beginning of this interglacial,in about 10 ky, the ice melted more or less completely. This fast event is related to solar radiation changes.
  59. 59. SEA LEVEL RISE AFTER THE LGM (18KY)…1 m rise every 100 years up to about 7/6ky, after that sea level become more or less stable up to nowadays
  60. 60. …Y ITALIA SE CONVIRTIO’ EN BOTA!!!! 20ky ago In blu glaciers 6ky ago
  61. 61. Further studies• Better characterize and explain the events occurred during the last interglacial;• Amount of dust in the past atmosphere;• Solar irradiation variations (long and short time);• Human impact on climate;• Better understanding of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and if it existed also in the past (up to now not older than 150y)….• More money to geological research because our future is written in the rocks and we only have to find the way to dig it out!!!
  62. 62. Last example… thermal fluctuation of the North Atlantic Ocean (AMO) last 100 years Mountain glaciers increase when AMO index is negative, and retreat when AMO is positive
  63. 63. Forecast based on past (BLU LINE)Forecast based on global warming idea (RED LINE)
  64. 64. So what is going on? ?
  65. 65. We will fire in the hellish earth!!!
  66. 66. …or we will die iced!!!
  67. 67. A possibility is also that someone is joking with us usingclimate change as personal purpose to become famous!!!
  68. 68. ….but because everybody wants to speak about climate…GLOBAL WARMING EXPERCTS!!! I did it too!!!!!!!
  69. 69. GRACIas Le nuvole del cielo disegnano la mia strada del ritorno,ma solo tu raggio di sole sai quale sia davvero. Mi manca la tua luce, il tuo calore, la tua bocca, il tuo consiglio. Questa notte solo naufragherò tra i miei sogni dove spero di incontrare la mia stella. (Vince 07)

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