Russian E-Commerce Market 2010-2011

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  • Или не average,а total?
  • The market volume of e-commerce in 2010 was 240
  • Или не average,а total?
  • В %% от населения Россия на уровне Италии и Прибалтики, но выбивается вверх, если в %% от инетчиков. Отчасти это можно обяъяснить тем, что Россия – не совсем Европа, а в остальном мире доля онлайн-покупателей в интернет-аудитории выше: В Азии (Китай, Корея) 95% интернетчиков покупает онлайн, в Штатах и Бразилии – 85%
  • Или не average,а total?
  • По всей выборке доля покупателей в столицах выше, чем в регионах, на 57% - а внутри групп по стажу в среднем на 40%, групп по доходам – на 43%, групп по стажу и доходам – 31%Стаж и доходы объясняют 47% различия между столицами и регионами
  • В идеале график переделать на доллары (по курсу 30 рублей). Подписать прирост - +127 млрд (или сколько там в баксах) для столиц и +182 млрд для регионов
  • категория «москвичи 25-44 лет, не менее 5 лет интернет-стажа, доход 45 тыс.руб. и более»(~2% от российской интернет-аудитории)90% из них покупают в онлайне55% делают это регулярно(в среднем раз в месяц и чаще)
  • Speed? Intensity?
  • Высокая доля регионов – это 60-70% от покупателей (столицы – 30-40%)Преобладание столиц – 50-60% в столицах, 40-50% в регионахДоминирование столиц – 65-80% в столицах, 20-35% в регионах
  • Если успеем, перед этим слайдом еще 1-2 слайда про оплату карточками
  • Сюда несколько буллетов – основные прогнозы по росту (в людях и деньгах) из отчета по рынку e-commerce

Transcript

  • 1. E-commerce in Russia:Market overview
    Boris Ovchinnikov
    Fedor Virin
    Data Insight
    Research Agency
  • 2. Agenda
    Market size
    Digital gap: capitals vs. regions
    Who are online shoppers?
    What do they buy?
    Market forecasts
  • 3. Russian e-commerce market*reached $8bn. in 2010* B2C retail only
  • 4. Market size
    Since autumn 2010 we see conformity in estimates* of e-commerce market size: $7-8 bn. whole market
    $5.5-6.5 bn. material goods
    * estimates byData Insight, Public Opinion Foundation, Insales, Chamber of Commerce and Industry
  • 5. Online&Offline, Russia &World
    14% of Russian adult population
    shopped online in 2010;
    e-commerce accounts for 1,6% of all retail sales
    These numbers are comparable to some European countries, but they are 3-5 times lower than the EU average or United States level
  • 6. Online shoppers share
    Source:Eurostat;Data Insight
  • 7. E-commerce as share of retail (2010)
    Source:Forrester; Centre for Retail Research;Data Insight
  • 8. Some specifics of the market
    Fragmented market without strong leaders
    High significance of Yandex.Market price comparison service
    High significance of price factor
    Cash payments still dominate
  • 9. Moscow &S.-Petersburg account for only 30%of Internet usersbutalmost 60% of e-commerce volume
  • 10. Capitals vs. regions
  • 11. Capitals vs. regions
    There is real digital gap. Regions are far behind Moscow and Petersburg in e-commerce development
    In regions:
    • Online penetration is lower
    • 12. Limited offer from online shops
    • 13. Share of online shoppers is lower
    • 14. Frequency of online purchases is lower
    • 15. Online purchases are not diversified
    • 16. Average bill is lower
  • Roots of digital gap
    E-commerce penetration in regions is lower because:
    - incomeof regional internet users is lower, than that of internet users from Moscow and Petersburg
    • averageinternet experience in regionsis lower, than that of capitals
    • 17. and there is a bunch of “geographical” factors
  • Roots of digital gap
    What are these geographical factors ?
    In regions:
    Shortage of online shops + lack of their “visibility”
    Delivery is of low quality, complex & expensive
    Time-savingeffect is not so huge in regions
    The price advantage of e-retail is nearly invisible
    There is no scale effect
    There is no viral effect
  • 18. E-commerce geography
    Russian e-commerce market
    split by macroregions
  • 19. Leading cities
    Leaders in terms of e-commerce market volume:
  • 20. Capitals vs. regions
    Despite current lag, regions will generate main growth for e-commerce in next years
  • 21. Every month 7-8 mn. peopleare shopping online in Russia
  • 22. Wealthy, experienced, metropolitan
    There are three key factorsdetermine whether internet users will buy or not buy online:
    • Income level
    • 23. Internet experience
    • 24. Place of residence:capitals or regions
    If all three factors coincide, online shoppers share could reach 90%
    All 3 factors have a positive effect also on frequency of online purchases and on volume of online spending
  • 25. Income as a shopping driver
    Obvious dependence: with higher income more people buy online
    Online shoppers share
    against monthly income
    capitals
    regions
    Source:Data Insightusing МАСМИ data
  • 26. Experience as a shopping driver
    Share of online shoppers is also growing along with the growth of the online experience
    Online shoppers share
    against internet experience
    capitals
    regions
    Source:Data Insightusing
    МАСМИ data
  • 27. How quickly users
    become buyers?
    Time gap betweenbecoming Internet userand becoming online shopper
    Source:telephone survey, 3200 respondents, Moscow & SPB, 04.2011
    60% of online shoppers have made their first online purchase
    more than 3 years later than they got Internet access
  • 28. Tickets and electronicsare two biggest piecesof Russian e-commerce market
  • 29. What Shoppers Buy Online?
  • 30. Where are the money?
    Purchases of more than 15 ths. roubles account for 15% of deals and63% of market volume.
    Expensive purchases are concentrated in six segments
    Distribution of purchasesabove 15K RUR (~$500)
    Source:telephone survey, 3200 respondents, Moscow & SPB, 04.2011
  • 31. Market segments: capitals vs. regions
    High share of regions: books, CD/DVD, digital content, clothing & footwear
    Leadership of capitals: housewares, baby goods, portable electronics, computers, air & train tickets
    Dominance of capitals: household appliances, “black” electronics, food, concert tickets
  • 32. Two groups of market segments
  • 33. Russian e-commerce market will grow 2,5 times (+145%)in 5 years
  • 34. Growth forecast
    Number of online shoppers will growfrom 14m in 2010 to 28m in 2015
    CAGR 15%
    Market volume will grow from $8bn. in 2010to $18.5 bn. In 2015
    CACR 18%
  • 35. Growth factors
    Growth of Internet audience (+75% in 5 years)
    Growing online experience =>higher % of online shoppers, higher spending, higher frequency and diversity of online purchases
    Income growth (more money to spend)
  • 36. Growth concentrated in regions
    As said above,regions will generate main growth fore-commerce market in next 5 years. More details:
    • almost 90% of new online shoppers will come from regions
    • 37. share of online shoppers from regions will grow from 60% to 73%
    • 38. e-commerce in regions will grow 2.9 times in 5 years, while in capitals it will grow only 1.9 times
    • 39. share of regions in market volume will grow from 40% to 51%
  • Chances for extra growth
    E-commerce market may grow faster than +150% in 5 years. Additional growth may be obtained from:
    the launch of new ambitious e-commerce projects
    successful brand-building by largest online retailers
    higher quality of service delivered by online shops
    higher popularity of price comparison services
  • 40. Contacts
    Tel. +7 495 7254946
    www.datainsight.ru
    Common questions:
    a@datainsight.ru 
    Subscriptions for news monitorings:
    editor@datainsight.ru
    Fedor Virin
    facebook.com/fedor.virin
    luchiaen.livejournal.com
    twitter.com/#!/luchiaen
    Boris Ovchinnikov
    facebook.com/boris.ovchinnikov
    barouh.livejournal.com
    twitter.com/#!/barouh_boris