• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
Assessing the impact of megatrends on your company
 

Assessing the impact of megatrends on your company

on

  • 29,047 views

Why and how to look at megatrends to find new opportunities and threats, and ensure your business' future

Why and how to look at megatrends to find new opportunities and threats, and ensure your business' future

Statistics

Views

Total Views
29,047
Views on SlideShare
4,032
Embed Views
25,015

Actions

Likes
4
Downloads
268
Comments
0

19 Embeds 25,015

http://www.fredericdemeyer.com 19775
http://megatrends.skynetblogs.be 5096
http://translate.googleusercontent.com 101
http://2721279078285038970_4c4a29c918c74ea0a96da6bc9d403de1b910312c.blogspot.com 12
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com 12
http://www.google.co.uk 3
https://ixquick-proxy.com 2
http://www.copyscape.com 2
http://www.google.com 2
http://www.google.sk 1
http://www.google.ca 1
http://www.alertize.com 1
https://www.google.se 1
http://131.253.14.66 1
https://s3-eu5.ixquick-proxy.com 1
http://131.253.14.250 1
http://www.google.co.in 1
https://s6-eu.ixquick-proxy.com 1
http://www.google.com.au 1
More...

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    Assessing the impact of megatrends on your company Assessing the impact of megatrends on your company Presentation Transcript

    • Assessing the impactof megatrends onyour companyfrederic de meyerinstitute for future insightsifi.frederic@gmail.com
    • Frederic De Meyer• founder institute for future insights• manager market & business intelligence Cisco Europe• Previously: – business development manager, Eastern & Central Europe, Cisco – senior consultant, benelux, IDC Research – senior public relation account manager, Shandwick PLC – Conference director ICT & telecommunications, education companies EFE and IIRJoost Drieman• Owner Marix International NV• Director Market & Business Intelligence Cisco Europe• Visiting lecturer for strategic intelligence at Vlerick Business School (BE), Nyenrode University (NL), Cox Business School (USA)• Previously: – VP Marketing & Business DevelopmentTelindus – Expert/reviewer at the European Community (DG information Society) – Director Business Development E-commerce for EMEA Compaq – Director of Tandem’s Virtual Reality Competency Centre Tandem Computers – Director Interactive Initiatives UB Networks
    • Agenda • Introduction to Megatrends exercise  Why you need to look at megatrends?  What exactly is a megatrend?  Where does this exercise fit in your corporate strategy?  Examples of how companies benefit from or are affected by megatrends  Adapting your corporate strategy to the Megatrends, how to make sure your company is prepared?  How to identify Megatrends  How to select Megatrends to discuss  How to organize and run Think Tank sessions  How to draw strategic conclusions  How to communicate the findings  Final advice • In-depth discussion on 15 Megatrends
    • Will your company survive the next 20 years?
    • What happens if you don’t look ahead? Dog Cat
    • How looking at Megatrends can benefit companies• Peter Bisson, Director McKinsey: – Capture market opportunities, – Test risks, and – Spur innovation.• Copenhagen Institute of Future studies: – Basis for innovation process – Basis for scenario planning – Basis for Early Warning Systems• Matthias Horx, Futurist: The curve of pursuit – Better decision making in strategic management. – Quicker and more precise innovation generation
    • Agenda • Introduction to Megatrends exercise  Why your company needs to look at megatrends?  What exactly is a megatrend?  Where does this exercise fit in your corporate strategy?  Examples of how companies benefit from or are affected by megatrends  Adapting your corporate strategy to the Megatrends, how to make sure your company is prepared?  How to select Megatrends to discuss  How to organize and run Thiink Tank sessions  How to draw strategic conclusions  How to communicate the findings  Summary advise • In-depth discussion on 15 Megatrends
    • What exactly IS a megatrend?• Long-lasting• Amplifying• Disruptive shift• Impacts major part of society• ... Looks inevitable (not prone to fashion, taste, mood changes)• Not an event
    • Agenda • Introduction to Megatrends exercise  Why your company needs to look at megatrends?  What exactly is a megatrend?  Where does this exercise fit in your corporate strategy?  Examples of how companies benefit from or are affected by megatrends  Adapting your corporate strategy to the Megatrends, how to make sure your company is prepared?  How to select Megatrends to discuss  How to organize and run Think Tank sessions  How to draw strategic conclusions  How to communicate the findings  Summary advise • In-depth discussion on 15 Megatrends
    • Which role should the megatrend exercise play in your corporate strategy? Lobby; Mood; Adoption; Regulation Opportunities -go-to-market innovation; - new products/services Fashion Corporate Tastes Communities Trends Execution Threats Opinion makers (tactics) -miss the boat; Mood - existing competion Predictions Black Swans Opportunities - business Model Innovation; Environment - gain efficiency, Demographic shifts Corporate competitiveness Regulations Megatrends Strategy Macro-economy Political shifts Threats -irrelevance; - new competitors Scenario PlanningFrederic De Meyer
    • ...but be careful with predictions... "Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value." - Marshal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre. Lobby; Opportunities Mood; Corpor -go-to-market Adoption; “I think there is a world market for maybe five Fashion Regulatio n ate innovation; computers” Tastes - new Communit Executi - Thomas Watson (IBM) 1943 products/services ies Trends on Threats Opinion -miss the boat; makers (tactics - existing don’t like their sound, and guitar music is “We Environme Mood competion nt Predictions ) Opportunities way out” on the - business Model Recording Co. rejecting The Beatles, - Decca Demograp Black Swans Corpor Innovation; hic shifts ate 1962 Regulation Megatr - gain efficiency, competitiveness s ends Strateg Threats Macro- “Everything that can be invented has been -irrelevance; economy y invented” - new Political competitors shifts Scenar - Charles H. Duell, Commissioner US Office of Patents, 1899 io Planni “640k ought to be enough for anybody” ng – Bill Gates, 1981 “There is no reason why someone would want a computer in their home” – Ken Olson, founder Digital Equipment, 1977Frederic De Meyer
    • What the megatrend exercise is all about Lobby; Mood; Adoption; Regulation Opportunities -go-to-market innovation; - new products/services Fashion Corporate Tastes Communities Trends Execution Threats Opinion makers (tactics) -miss the boat; Mood - existing competion Black Swans Opportunities Opportunities - business Model Innovation; - business Model Innovation; Environment Environment - gain efficiency, - gain efficiency, Demographic shifts Demographic shifts Corporate competitiveness competitiveness Regulations Regulations Megatrends Strategy Macro-economy Macro-economy Political shifts Political shifts Threats -irrelevance; - new competitors Scenario PlanningFrederic De Meyer
    • Agenda • Introduction to Megatrends exercise  Why your company needs to look at megatrends?  What exactly is a megatrend?  Where does this exercise fit in your corporate strategy?  Examples of how companies benefit from or are affected by megatrends  Adapting your corporate strategy to the Megatrends, how to make sure your company is prepared?  How to select Megatrends to discuss  How to organize and run Think Tank sessions  How to draw strategic conclusions  How to communicate the findings  Summary advise • In-depth discussion on 15 Megatrends
    • Companies that didn’t see new trends coming...• Trend: Water shortage, corporate citizenship – Coca Cola From 2003-2006 Coca Cola continued water spill and mismanagement in Indian regions subject to water shortage. This resulted in boycott and negative publicity. Since they have re-worked processes and now receive annual price for Social Responsibility.• Trend: Responsible buying – General Motor General Motors continued investing in the gass- devoring Hummer while consumers shifted to cheaper, more ecological spending. This resulted in a pummeting sales for GM, negative image and publicity.
    • Companies that grew new opportunities based on megatrends• Trend: Rising middle class in Emerging – Tata Nano Car Benefit from rising middle-class in India who want cheap, no-thrill car to replace motorbikes and obtain ‘car-driver’ status• Trend: Ageing population, talent scarcety – Cisco Health Presence Less mobile but growing elderly population will need remote access to health. Less young people will lead to talent scarcity, remote doctors could be located anywhere in the world.• Trend: Mass customization, Do it Yourself – Nike and many many others Offer multiple customization possibilities
    • Companies that built new business models based on megatrends...• Trend: Global Grid, desintermediation, crowdsourcing – Peer-to-peer lending Companies like Prosper and Zopa organize peer-to- peer lending, making the task of a bank redundant. – Fan Funding Companies like Sellaband and Sonicangels enables anounymous funding of musicians for a share of potential revenue, making the intervention of music label companies redundant. – Crowdsourcing Marketing, advertisement, innovation, problem solving, consumer-generated design, ... Crowdsourcing moves into all segments
    • Companies that shaped their organization and vision to megatrends• Trend: Sustainability, Ageing Polulation, Urbanization, Rising middle-class, ... – Siemens Communication on how each of Siemens’ Business Unit is responding to a specific megatrend challenge... Very effective corporate branding.• Trend: Ageing Polulation – GlaxoSmithKline Vision statement completely aligned with Ageing Population trend ‘Do more, feel better, live longer’
    • Agenda • Introduction to Megatrends exercise  Why your company needs to look at megatrends?  What exactly is a megatrend?  Where does this exercise fit in your corporate strategy?  Examples of how companies benefit from or are affected by megatrends  Adapting your corporate strategy to the Megatrends, how to make sure your company is prepared?  How to select Megatrends to discuss  How to organize and run Think Tank sessions  How to draw strategic conclusions  How to communicate the findings  Summary advise • In-depth discussion on 15 Megatrends
    • Megatrends process Meg atrends Meg 1. Identification of Megatrends Drivers Antitrends? 2. Discuss Subtrends Consequences Inhibitors Megatrends in Think Likeliness Impact on Impact on Timeline company ecosystem Tanks 3. Build summary conclusions and recommendations 5. Communicate results internally and externally
    • Identification of Megatrends• Invite employees to submit• Internal survey• Brainstorming• External consultants• External individuals – Linked in – Crowdsourcing• Research
    • Research option: Researching External experts’ assessment of megatrends Ernst & Young NL CSIRO Compenhagen Institute Geert Noels -author of IBM McKinsey Richard Watson LinkedIn megatrends for Future Studies EconoshocksCultural / multiethnic More from less Ageing population Demography Globalization The great rebalancing Ageing Population technologysociety will lead to (resources) (power shift)conflictAgeing population Personalisation of Globalization Shift to East demographics The productivity Powershift East sustainability product and services imperativeScarcety of natural Divergent demographics Technological New economy / tech Technological progress The Global Grid Global Connectiviy (> consumer powerresources between rich and poor + development (connectedness) fear) impact on healthIndividualization More people on the Prosperity End of fossile fuels Omni consumer (more Pricing the planet (green) GRIN Technology shift to East move (mobility - job & informed and geographical) empowered)Climate iWorld (digital & natural Individualization New capitalism corporate social The Market State (govts Environment demography convergence) responsibility vs globalization)Islam grows, Christianity Commercialization Green economy political uncertainty meaningfadesMore wealthy countries Health & environment scarcity of resourcesTechnology impacts more Acceleration increasing complexityparts of daily lifeGlobal transport will ever Network organizingincrease (network-centricity) Urbanization
    • Analyzing 338 responses to a LinkedInquestion about Megatrends (Question asked by Andreas von der Heydt, director at L’Oréal) 26.8% technology (collaboration, increased efficiency, cloud/virtualization, brainstorming (social media), smart cities3D, nanotechs, mobile, augmented reality, new user interfaces, do it yourself, SaaS 13.7% sustainability, corporate responsibility, green tech 12.5% consumer power (24/7, consumerism, meaning, less is more, buy local, customization, online retail, transparancy 10.1% shift to East (innovation outside of US, decline of West, rising middle class, decline of Dollar 9.5% demography 4.8% meaning (return of ideology, increasing empathy 4.8% scarcity of resources (water 4.8% increasing complexity 3.0% online learning, for-profit universities 1.8% cost cutting 1.8% risk aversion 1.8% simplicity 1.8% Innovation, entrepreneurship 1.2% gov 2.0 0.6% insourcing 0.6% simplexity 0.6% Wealth/poverty
    • External experts’ assessment of megatrends – group in themes Ernst & Young NL CSIRO Compenhagen Institute Geert Noels -author of IBM McKinsey Richard Watson - author LinkedIn megatrends for Future Studies Econoshocks of Future FilesCultural / multiethnic More from less Ageing population Demography Globalization The great rebalancing Ageing Population technologysociety will lead to (resources) (power shift)conflictAgeing population Personalisation of Globalization Shift to East demographics The productivity Powershift East sustainability product and services imperativeScarcety of natural Divergent demographics Technological New economy / tech Technological progress The Global Grid Global Connectiviy (> consumer powerresources between rich and poor + development (connectedness) fear) impact on healthIndividualization More people on the Prosperity End of fossile fuels Omni consumer (more Pricing the planet (green) GRIN Technology shift to East move (mobility - job & informed and geographical) empowered)Climate iWorld (digital & natural Individualization New capitalism corporate social The Market State (govts Environment demography convergence) responsibility vs globalization)Islam grows, Christianity Commercialization Green economy political uncertainty meaningfadesMore wealthy countries Health & environment scarcity of resourcesTechnology impacts more Acceleration increasing complexityparts of daily lifeGlobal transport will ever Network organizingincrease (network-centricity) Urbanization
    • External experts’ assessment of megatrends - cleaned up major trends Demographics: Geopolitics: - Ageing Population - Globalization 3.0 - Global mobility - Global Grid - Generation Y - Rising power of Emerging - Urbanization - Rising middle class - Gap rich-poor - The Market State Consumer trends: -Responsible buying - Mass customization Environment: Technology: - Global warming -Pervasive Technology (IoT) - Scarcety of resources - Augmented reality - Energy dependency - Social Networks - Green technologies - GRIN Technologies - Radical Transparency - Tech customizationTIP: These are not the only Megatrends... Keep an eye on megatrends constantly !
    • Megatrends process Meg atrends Meg 1. Identification of Megatrends Drivers Antitrends? 2. Discuss Subtrends Consequences Inhibitors Megatrends in Likeliness Impact on Impact on Timeline company ecosystem Think Tanks 3. Build summary conclusions and recommendations 5. Communicate results internally and externally
    • Megatrends exercise - Think Tank discussions22 megatrends, 5 Discussed in 5 Think Discussion points:themes Tanks Demographics: (+/- 25 participants)- Ageing Population- Global mobility- Generation Y- Urbanization- Gap rich-poor Subtrends Geopolitics:- Globalization 3.0- Global Grid Consequences- Rising power of Emerging- Rising middle class- The Market State Drivers Inhibitors Environment:- Global warming Likeliness- Scarcety of resources Timeline- Energy dependency- Green technologies- Radical Transparency Impact on company Technology:-Pervasive Technology (IoT) Impact on- Augmented reality ecosystem- Social Networks- GRIN Technologies Antitrends?- Tech customization Consumer trends:-Responsible buying- Mass customization
    • To keep in mind when organizing the Think Tanks• Invite people from different backgrounds / interests• Not necessarily specialists –discussion is about impact on company• +/- 2 hour discussion per ‘theme’ (~Think Tank)• Send prior briefing (‘fact sheets’)• Take public notes of the discussion, this will stimulate further ideas• Use a fixed template• Ideally 4-5 people per Think Tank.
    • Tip 1: send previous briefing ‘fact sheets’ withthought-provoking questions...
    • Tip 2: also discuss potential anti-trends, theymight constitute specific opportunities CSIRO - MEGATRENDS Bridge8 - ANTITRENDS More from less Less from less Limited resources and increasing People adapt their needs to diminshing population will drive need for more resources efficiency in resource management A personal touch Reducing choice Drive for ever increasing personalisation People look for ways to simplify decision of services and goods taking Divergent demographics Growing global health OECD countries ageing and unhealthy, Global health improvement due to science developing nations boom breakthrough, improved fertility rate More people on the move Fullfillment Geographic and functional mobility, Young people will build diverse urbanization experience leading to single goal, technology will make location obsolete iWorld Opting out Digital and natural world get mixed. More people will chose to deconnect Internet of things
    • Tip 3: use ‘cue cards’ to open up the minds atthe start of each megatrend discussion
    • Megatrends process Meg atrends Meg 1. Identification of Megatrends Drivers Antitrends? 2. Discuss Subtrends Consequences Inhibitors Megatrends in Think Likeliness Impact on Impact on Timeline company ecosystem Tanks 3. Build summary conclusions and recommendations 4. Communicate results internally and externally
    • Trends segmentation according to timeline, toknow which ones to act on... High Impact on company Low Already happening Recent/nacent Future Frederic De Meyer timeline
    • Trends segmentation based on which action totake manageble Influence Action Aware Monitor determined context core Frederic De Meyer
    • ‘Heat maps’ very effective way to visualizethreats for customers Weight Trend 1 Trend 2 Trend 3 Trend 4 Trend [...] (% T urno v e r) Customer segment 1 -10 -6 -5 0 -3 60% Customer segment 2 2 8 0 2 0 20% Customer segment 3 8 -2 3 -8 -3 10% Customer segment 4 -7 0 0 0 2 5% Customer segment [...] 7 6 2 1 10 5% F re de ric D e M e ye r
    • Where to apply new ideas from megatrends? New business models Business Model New ways of influencing Product portfolio New communication tools R&D New products, services Customer New markets, geo’s segments New skills Ecosystem New channels, Route-to-Market Marketing New ways of financing Human Resources New suppliers Go-to-Market New organization Production New vision / mission New branding
    • Megatrends process Meg atrends Meg 1. Identification of Megatrends Drivers Antitrends? 2. Discuss Subtrends Consequences Inhibitors Megatrends in Think Likeliness Impact on Impact on Timeline company ecosystem Tanks 3. Build summary conclusions and recommendations 4. Communicate results internally and externally
    • Maximizing impact of the Megatrend exercise Available to: Contains: Aim: Format:Megatrends document: every employee Fact sheets prepared for discussions, Alignment of vision, buy-in for Doc + discuss with some high level outcome of decisions discussionsExecutive Briefing: top management Short document with key Influence decisions, ideas for business Doc + discuss opportunities and threats (not in other model innovation docs)Partner document: partners and channels Fact sheets of those trends that are Partner loyalty, joint business planning Doc + discuss impacting channelsPacks per customer segment: vertical sales teams Fact sheets of those trends that are Customer intimacy, marketing & sales Doc + discuss impacting specific customers argumentsPacks per product segment: productmanagers, Fact sheets of those trends that are Better market positioning, marketing, Doc + discuss business units, R&D impacting specific product or services sales messagesHigh level summary: External world Your companys vision on Megatrends Feedback from people outside of Presentations industry, new ideas and insights Assessing the impact of Megatrends on your company frederic de meyer
    • Agenda • Introduction to Megatrends exercise  Why your company needs to look at megatrends?  What exactly is a megatrend?  Where does this exercise fit in your corporate strategy?  Examples of how companies benefit from or are affected by megatrends  Adapting your corporate strategy to the Megatrends, how to make sure your company is prepared?  How to select Megatrends to discuss  How to organize and run Think Tank sessions  How to draw strategic conclusions  How to communicate the findings  Summary advise
    • Some final piece of advise...• Do the exercise yourself (don’t rely on external view only);• Involve people from different background;• Stay open-minded, even when link with current business is not evident;• Structure the discussions;• Consider anti-trends;• ... have fun !
    • frederic de meyerinstitute for future insightsifi.frederic@gmail.com(BE)+32 471 63 95 35www.fredericdemeyer.comtwitter: @fdemeyerThank you!