Gabriela gomes: Mathematical Modeling and Data Needs

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Talk by Gabriela Gomes on the 1st Symposium of Big Data and Public Health, 2013

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Gabriela gomes: Mathematical Modeling and Data Needs

  1. 1. Gabriela Gomes Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência, Portugal
  2. 2. Figure 1 A Colored (intervention) : dsv (x) = q(x) µ − xλsv (x), dt 1 div (x) = xλsv (x) − µiv (x), λ = β iv (x)dx. 0 dt 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 ∫ 0 10 B Black (no intervention) : M = 1 − e− pd . Colored (intervention) : M =1− € 1 ∫ 0 e−xpd q(x)dx. 2 10 transmission intensity, R 0 1 proportion infected € density λ = βI. proportion infected Black (no intervention) : dS = µ − λS − µS, dt dI = λS − µI, dt 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 5 10 challenge dose, d 10 10 0 0.5 1 susceptibility Gomes et al 2013 PLOS Pathogens (in review).
  3. 3. data from 90 communities di(x) = β [1 − i(x)] − f ( β,r)i(x), dt where β f ( β,r) = β r . e −1 € Smith et al 2005 Nature 438: 492.
  4. 4. Gomes et al 2012 Proc R Soc Lond B 279: 2473.
  5. 5. data from 14 communities Cape Town China Taiwan Australia Denmark Houston Spain Lombardy US & Canada India Madras Malawi Rwanda Bangladesh
  6. 6. Brazil Portugal
  7. 7. ILI(t) = p(t)I(t) €

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