0
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria
Outbreaks in...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

Outline

1

Background

2

Results and Discussion
...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

Background

Epidemiological Background:
Plasmodium...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

Background

Epidemiological Background:
Plasmodium...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

Background

Ecological Background:
Tropical rain f...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

Background

Ecological Background:
Tropical rain f...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

Background

Ecological Background:
Tropical rain f...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

Main goal

We used mathematical modeling to assess...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

The Study System

Laporta et al., 2013

Funding: F...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

Outline

1

Background

2

Results and Discussion
...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

What have we done?

The Ross–Macdonald model and a...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

Ross-Macdonald model: null weak interactions

dXh
...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

Biodiversity-oriented model: ecological interactio...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

Main results

The basic reproduction number (R0 ; ...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

Main results

The basic reproduction number (R0 ; ...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

Main results

The basic reproduction number (R0 ; ...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

Dilution effect and diffuse competition
Somatory o...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

The diffuse competition mechanism was negatively
c...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

There is a non-linear, unimodal correlation betwee...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

Outline

1

Background

2

Results and Discussion
...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

To achieve biological conservation and to eliminat...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

Outline

1

Background

2

Results and Discussion
...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

Big Data toolbox and approach can be also useful f...
Outline

Background

Results and Discussion

Conclusion

Final Remarks

Big Data toolbox and approach can be also useful f...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Gabriel laporta: Biodiversity can help prevent malaria outbreaks in tropical forests

498

Published on

Talk by Gabriel Laporta on the 1st Symposium of Big Data and Public Health, 2013

Published in: Health & Medicine, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
498
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
4
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
4
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Transcript of "Gabriel laporta: Biodiversity can help prevent malaria outbreaks in tropical forests"

  1. 1. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests Gabriel Laporta1 , Paulo Prado2 , Roberto Kraenkel3 , Renato Coutinho3 , Anice Sallum1 1 Department of Epidemiology, FSP-USP of Ecology, IB-USP 3 Institute of Theoretical Physics, UNESP 2 Department October 25, 2013 Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  2. 2. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests ´ ´ Gabriel Zorello Laporta1*, Paulo Inacio Knegt Lopez de Prado2, Roberto Andre Kraenkel3, Renato Mendes Coutinho3, Maria Anice Mureb Sallum1 ´ ´ ˜ ˜ ˜ 1 Departamento de Epidemiologia, Faculdade de Saude Publica, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2 Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de ˆncias, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil, 3 Instituto de Fısica Teorica, Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho, Sao Paulo, Sao ´ ˜ ˜ ˜ ´ ´ ˜ ˜ Biocie Paulo, Brazil Abstract Background: Plasmodium vivax is a widely distributed, neglected parasite that can cause malaria and death in tropical areas. It is associated with an estimated 80–300 million cases of malaria worldwide. Brazilian tropical rain forests encompass hostand vector-rich communities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms could play a role in the dynamics of malaria transmission. The first mechanism is the dilution effect caused by presence of wild warm-blooded animals, which can act as dead-end hosts to Plasmodium parasites. The second is diffuse mosquito vector competition, in which vector and nonvector mosquito species compete for blood feeding upon a defensive host. Considering that the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda calls for novel strategies to eliminate malaria transmission locally, we used mathematical modeling to assess those two mechanisms in a pristine tropical rain forest, where the primary vector is Laporta et al., 2013 but malaria is absent. Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) present Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests and a biodiversity-oriented model were parameterized using Methodology/Principal Findings: The Ross–Macdonald model
  3. 3. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks Outline 1 Background 2 Results and Discussion 3 Conclusion 4 Final Remarks Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  4. 4. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks Background Epidemiological Background: Plasmodium vivax is a widely distributed and neglected parasite. Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  5. 5. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks Background Epidemiological Background: Plasmodium vivax is a widely distributed and neglected parasite. It is associated with an estimated 80–300 million cases of malaria worldwide. Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  6. 6. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks Background Ecological Background: Tropical rain forests encompass host- and vector-rich communities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms play a role in the dynamics of malaria transmission. Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  7. 7. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks Background Ecological Background: Tropical rain forests encompass host- and vector-rich communities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms play a role in the dynamics of malaria transmission. The first mechanism is the dilution effect caused by presence of wild warm-blooded animals, which can act as dead-end hosts to Plasmodium parasites. Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  8. 8. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks Background Ecological Background: Tropical rain forests encompass host- and vector-rich communities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms play a role in the dynamics of malaria transmission. The first mechanism is the dilution effect caused by presence of wild warm-blooded animals, which can act as dead-end hosts to Plasmodium parasites. The second is diffuse mosquito vector competition, in which vector and non-vector mosquito species compete for blood feeding upon a defensive host. Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  9. 9. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks Main goal We used mathematical modeling to assess those two mechanisms in a pristine tropical rain forest, where the primary vector is present but malaria is absent. Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  10. 10. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks The Study System Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  11. 11. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks Outline 1 Background 2 Results and Discussion 3 Conclusion 4 Final Remarks Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  12. 12. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks What have we done? The Ross–Macdonald model and a biodiversity-oriented model were parameterized using newly collected data and data from the literature. Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  13. 13. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks Ross-Macdonald model: null weak interactions dXh dt dYh dt dXm dt dYm dt Laporta et al., 2013 bThm Xh Ym + γYh N bThm Xh Ym = − γYh N bTmh Xm Yh = µYm − N bTmh Xm Yh = − µYm N =− (1) (2) (3) (4) Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  14. 14. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks Biodiversity-oriented model: ecological interactions dXh bThm Xh Ym =− dt (B + N) 1 + 1 C+M + γYh (5) h B+N bThm Xh Ym dYh = 1 dt (B + N) 1 + h C+M B+N − γYh (6) dXm αbM bTmh Xm Yh = − µXm − 1 C+M 1 dt 1 + h B+N (B + N) 1 + h C+M B+N dYm bTmh Xm Yh = 1 dt (B + N) 1 + h C+M B+N Laporta et al., 2013 (7) (8) − µYm , Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  15. 15. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks Main results The basic reproduction number (R0 ; 2.18) estimated employing Ross–Macdonald model indicated that malaria cases occur in the study location. Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  16. 16. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks Main results The basic reproduction number (R0 ; 2.18) estimated employing Ross–Macdonald model indicated that malaria cases occur in the study location. However, no malaria cases have been reported since 1980. Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  17. 17. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks Main results The basic reproduction number (R0 ; 2.18) estimated employing Ross–Macdonald model indicated that malaria cases occur in the study location. However, no malaria cases have been reported since 1980. In contrast, the biodiversity-oriented model corroborated the absence of malaria transmission (R0 ; 0.93). Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  18. 18. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks Dilution effect and diffuse competition Somatory of weak interactions can modulate the dynamics of malarial transmission Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  19. 19. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks The diffuse competition mechanism was negatively correlated with the risk of malaria transmission 1.50 1.35 1.20 1.05 6000 0.90 0.75 R0 Abundance of non-vectors (C) 8000 4000 0.60 0.39 0.45 2000 0.30 0.15 00 Laporta et al., 2013 200 400 600 800 Human population size (N) 0.00 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  20. 20. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks There is a non-linear, unimodal correlation between the mechanism of dead-end transmission of parasites and the risk of malaria transmission 1.35 1.20 1.05 0.90 600 0.75 R0 Abundance of non-hosts (B) 800 0.60 400 0.45 0.30 200 0.15 0.39 00 Laporta et al., 2013 200 400 600 800 Human population size (N) 0.00 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  21. 21. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks Outline 1 Background 2 Results and Discussion 3 Conclusion 4 Final Remarks Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  22. 22. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks To achieve biological conservation and to eliminate Plasmodium parasites in human populations, all malaria eradication programs should take biodiversity issues into consideration. Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  23. 23. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks Outline 1 Background 2 Results and Discussion 3 Conclusion 4 Final Remarks Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  24. 24. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks Big Data toolbox and approach can be also useful for hypothesis-driven scientific researches. Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  25. 25. Outline Background Results and Discussion Conclusion Final Remarks Big Data toolbox and approach can be also useful for hypothesis-driven scientific researches. Big Data philosophy can create a new category of study design in Epidemiology. Laporta et al., 2013 Funding: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa no Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×