Hurricanes 2014

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An overview of the 2014 Hurricane Season

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Hurricanes 2014

  1. 1. Hurricanes 2014 Dan Reilly National Weather Service Houston/Galveston
  2. 2. Outline • Review of Hurricane Hazards: surge, wind, rain, tornadoes; which ones are a threat to your location? • Ways to monitor storms during the hurricane season • 2014 Hurricane Season forecast
  3. 3. Hurricane/Tropical Storm Potential Hazards Storm Surge Flooding Tornadoes Flooding Rains Damaging Winds Every storm is different as far as combination of hazards TS Allison (2001) Ike (2008), Carla (1961) Alicia (1983) Andrew (1992) Buelah (1967)
  4. 4. Hurricane Threats STORM SURGE – The abnormal rise in water level due to the storm (wind pushes water onto land); If the surge+tide (stormtide) is greater than your elevation you will have flooding Storm Surge Example – hurricane makes landfall at high tide
  5. 5. Hurricane Ike: Large Category 2 Storm Large Hurricanes Large Storm Surge!
  6. 6. Bolivar Peninsula Friday morning Lesson learned: if under an evacuation order leave as soon as possible, don’t wait too long!
  7. 7. Category 1 Damage in Houston Typical damage with Ike around Houston: downed or snapped Trees, some roof damage Hurricane Wind Damage
  8. 8. Category 1-min. Sustained Winds (mph) Storm Examples Wind Impacts Tropical Depression Less than 39 mph Relatively minor Tropical Storm Between 39 and 73 Allison Can be significant 1 74 - 95 Jerry 1989 Very dangerous; will produce Claudette 2003 some damage Humberto 2007 2 96 - 110 Georges 1998 Ike 2008 Extremely dangerous; will produce extensive damage 3 111 - 130 Alicia 1983 Devastating damage Katrina 2005 Rita 2005 4 131 - 155 1900 - Galveston Catastrophic damage Carla 1961 5 > 156 Andrew 1992 Catastrophic damage Camille 1969 Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
  9. 9. Greens Bayou, Home Owned Estates – June 10, 2001 Rainfall From Tropical Cyclones
  10. 10. Rule of Thumb: Divide storm speed into 100 to get potential rainfall!
  11. 11. Some Notable Flood-Producing Storms 3-71FEMA Hurricane Readiness  Coastal Communities
  12. 12. 6/16/2014 Weather.gov/houston 18 From Ashley and Ashley, 2008; 50 years of data across the U.S.
  13. 13. Stay Aware of What is Going on in Tropics • Before storm develops look at Tropical Weather Outlook to see which disturbances may develop • Once the storm forms… – Look at the detailed forecast for your area; NWS will forecast wind speed, rainfall amount, surge height and tornado threat – All storms are different; will next one be more of a TS Allison, Hurricane Ike or Hurricane Andrew? Houston Weather Forecast Office: http://weather.gov/houston National Hurricane Center: http://hurricanes.gov
  14. 14. A Great Way to Stay Informed: Tropical Weather Outlook Text Graphic Identifies which disturbances have potential to become a tropical storm within 48 hours with a probability assigned to each.
  15. 15. Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2013 Forecast Group Number of Named Storms Number of Hurricanes Number of Major Hurricanes (cat 3 or larger) Long-Term Average (1981- 2010) 12 6.5 2 Weather Channel 16 9 5 Colorado State 18 9 4 National Weather Service 13-20 7-11 3-6 Cuba Institute 17 9 Impact Weather 16-20 7-9 2-4 Accuweather 16 8 4 Actual ? ? ? How did the forecast turn out?
  16. 16. Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2013 Forecast Group Number of Named Storms Number of Hurricanes Number of Major Hurricanes (cat 3 or larger) Long-Term Average (1981- 2010) 12 6.5 2 Weather Channel 16 9 5 Colorado State 18 9 4 National Weather Service 13-20 7-11 3-6 Cuba Institute 17 9 Impact Weather 16-20 7-9 2-4 Accuweather 16 8 4 Actual 13 2 0 Forecast was off! Numbers well below forecast, especially hurricanes.
  17. 17. Atlantic Hurricane Outlooks 2014 Forecast Group Number of Named Storms Number of Hurricanes Number of Major Hurricanes (cat 3 or larger) Long-Term Average (1981- 2010) 12 6.5 2 Colorado State 9 3 1 Weather Underground 7-9 1-3 0-2 NOAA 8-13 3-6 2 Actual ? ? ? Climate Pattern called El Nino setting up which normally limits number of storms; also tropical waters cool for this time of year; still it only takes one and Alicia and Andrew occurred during “quiet” years Is this information useful? Are we in the clear this year?
  18. 18. El Nino and La Nina Climate.gov Usually means fewer Atlantic storms Usually means more Atlantic storms
  19. 19. Least active season 1983 (4 named stor It Only Takes One
  20. 20. Weather Information from NWS Houston/Galveston • Web: weather.gov/houston • Twitter: @NWSHouston • Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherSer vice.HoustonGalveston.gov • Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSHouston Forecast details presented graphically through web and social media

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