Impact Weather Presentation for Fort Bend County Preparedness Workshop

Structure / Climatology

Forecasting

Impact – Wind/Surge/Rain/ Tornadoes

Preparing Home & Family

Lessons Learned from Recent Impacts

Outlook for 2009

Hurricane Awareness and Preparedness Mark Mathiesen Sr. TropicsWatch Meteorologist

What are Hurricane-Force Winds Really Like?

In 2004, Category 4 Hurricane Charley struck Punta Gorda, FL Let’s take a look at what hurricane-force winds really “look like”

When is the Atlantic Hurricane Season?

May 1 st through October 31 st

June 1 st through November 30 th

June 1 st through October 31 st

January 1 st through December 31 st

Atlantic Basin Yearly Average 9.8 Named Storms 5.8 Hurricanes 2.5 Major Hurricanes (Cat 3 or >) Peak Season Early August Through Mid October Hurricanes and Tropical Storms Hurricanes 90-95% Aug 1 Oct 22

A Hurricane is a Heat Engine Warm/Moist Inflow at Surface Outflow Aloft

Year Population Coastal County Population Texas to Maine 1900-2000 53% of population now live within 50 miles of the coast

Increased Coastal Development is a Major Problem Source: Pielke, 2000 Miami Beach 2006 Miami Beach 1926 $100 million damage $200 Billion damage

Based only on max winds

Max winds may be isolated

Storm surge is more related to a hurricane’s size

Does not consider size and scope of a hurricane’s wind field

Not a good estimate of potential extent of damage

The Former Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale Should NOT be Used to Estimate Storm Surge

2-20 ft. 3-24 ft. 4-28 ft. 5-32 ft. 6-36 ft. Should NOT be Used to Estimate Storm Surge The Former Saffir-Simpson Scale

New for 2009 – The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

The Hurricane Severity Index A new scale for classifying hurricanes that takes into consideration more than just maximum surface winds.

Size (1-25 points)

Examines the total coverage of the 39+, 58+, 74+, and 100+ mph wind fields

Intensity (1-25 points)

Points assigned using the exponential relationship between wind speed and the force exerted on an object

Developed by: Chris Hebert and Bob Weinzapfel The Result: A 50-point scale that better represents a tropical cyclone’s true destructive potential, the Hurricane Severity Index

HSI Values for Well-Known Tropical Cyclones at Landfall 5 3 2 Edouard ’08 27 16 11 Andrew ’92 (LA) 8 5 3 Humberto ’07 11 8 3 Dolly ’08 11 7 4 Claudette ’03 20 9 11 Gustav ‘08 22 11 11 Alicia ‘83 26 10 16 Rita ‘05 27 10 17 Ike ‘08 36 11 25 Opal ‘05 36 13 23 Katrina ‘05 36 22 14 Camille ‘69 37 12 25 Wilma ‘04 40 15 25 Betsy ‘65 42 17 25 Carla ‘61 Total Intensity Size HSI Hurricane

Ivan / Dennis Comparison (20 size) (6 size)

Ike / Alicia Comparison Alicia damage computed in 2006 dollars (19 size) (11 size)

Ike / Dolly Comparison (19 size) (4 size)

HSI Values for US landfalling 2008 Storms 3 2 1 50 – TS Fay 5 3 2 60 – TS Edouard 8 4 4 70 – TS Hanna 10 7 3 90 – Cat 1 Dolly 20 9 11 105 – Cat 2 Gustav 27 10 17 110 – Cat 2 Ike Total Intensity Size HSI Wind (mph) Saffir-Simpson Name

What is Meant by the Yellow Error Cone? A.

Hurricane-force winds are likely within this cone

There is a 75% chance that the hurricane’s center will track somewhere within this cone.

Should your location lie within the cone, there is a 75% chance that you will be impacted.

The cone should only be used for general guidance. A hurricane goes wherever it wants.

Average (75%) Forecast Error Average 5-Day Error 840 mi. Diameter Circle

Remember! The threat from hurricanes often extends far beyond the error cone! 6-8ft Tides Dangerous Surf 39 58 74

Hurricane Winds

Can reach up to 200 mph

Force increases exponentially (double wind = 4 times force)

Wind speed increases with height to 1500 ft. up

Winds atop a skyscraper could be 20-30 mph higher!

Hurricane Ike

80-85 85-90 90-95 75-80

Peak Wind Gust 134 mph in Deer Park

Chase Tower – Houston

What is the Weakest Point of Most Homes?

Windows

Garage Doors

Roof

Front Door

Doors “Sucked” Out Doors Blown In Hurricane Gustav Garage Door/Roof Failure

Securing Your Garage Door According to the Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, about 80% of residential hurricane wind damage starts with wind entry through garage doors. A common 26-gauge double-wide garage door will fail with winds of only 70 mph, leading to possible catastrophic roof failure. Adding a simple brace to the door can prevent the door from being blown in or sucked out – even with winds of 180 mph. http://www.securedoor.com SecureDoor – Available at Lowe’s $139 / brace

How Far Do the Winds

From a Hurricane

Extend Inland ?

Inland Wind Decay

Inland Penetration of 74+ mph Winds (Cat. 3 moving 14 mph)

Category 2 Ike Produced Hurricane-Force Winds Nearly to Lufkin

Heavy Rain / Inland Flooding

Independent of intensity

Can flood areas hundreds of miles inland

12” of water can sweep away your car

6 inches of water can sweep a person off his/her feet

Is the #1 killer (from severe weather) in the U.S.

Rainfall Estimation Tip

Hurricane Ike Rainfall – First Event Friday Night / Saturday Morning

Houston Hurricane Ike Rainfall – First Event Friday Night / Saturday Morning

Hurricane Ike Rainfall – Second Event Saturday Night / Sunday Morning

Includes precipitation from the post-Ike cold front

Storm Surge

Factors That Contribute to Storm Surge

Wind field size

Forward speed (slower = higher surge)

Angle of impact

Near-shore water depth

Shape of the coastline (bays enhance surge)

Storm Surge Builds as it Moves into Shallower Water Near the Coast A hurricane’s Saffir-Simpson rating isn’t a consideration

Question: Which Home will better survive a storm surge?

Home on the coast with a shallow slope offshore

Home on the coast with a steep slope offshore

Shallow water offshore – gentle slope (NW Gulf Coast) Deep water offshore - steep slope (East U.S. Coast)

Large Waves Ahead of a Hurricane Can Cut Off Evacuation Routes Days Before Landfall

Hurricane Ike

Houston/Galveston Area Storm Surge Inundation

Emerald Beach – Bolivar Peninsula

Bolivar Peninsula – Dec. 5, 2008

1900 1912 First Baptist Church - Galveston

70% of hurricanes (1948-2000) spawned at least 1 tornado

40% of hurricanes spawn more than 3 tornadoes

Some produce “outbreaks”

Beulah (1967): 141

Ivan (2004): 117

Frances (2004): 101

Rita (2005): 90

Camille (1969): 80

Katrina (2005): 45

Gustav (2008): 41

Tornado warnings for Hurr. Gustav (2008) Hurricane-Spawned Tornadoes

Preparing for the Inevitable

Pre-season planning

Your hurricane kit

Preparing your home

Evacuation checklist

Riding it out at home

After the storm

Rita – 2005

http://www.onestorm.org/

Organize Contact Info & Rally Locations

Important Papers Reminder

“ To-do” list at the end

Preparing Your Hurricane Kit

Flashlights/Lanterns

Extra Batteries

Portable TV / Radio

Fire Extinguisher

First Aid Kit

Duct Tape / Tarp / Rope

Toolkit (hammer/pliers/screwdrivers)

Manual Can Opener

Collapsible Water Containers

70 qt. Bin $10-$15

Water – 1 gal./day per Person http://mywatersafe.com Collapsible containers allow you to store all the water you’ll need for both drinking and cleaning just hours before impact.

http://worldprep.com/ http://www.readykit.com/ All-in-One Kits Offer Convenience $60 and up

Fluorescent LED $30 Battery-Powered Lighting Halogen $40 Xenon / LED $50 LED and fluorescent lights can last days on a set of batteries. A rechargeable light is great is you have a generator. Figure on 1 light per person.

Pocket-Size NOAA $50-$60 Crank Radio LED Light Phone Charger NOAA With TV Band $40-$60 Staying in Touch

X Analog TV Digital TV TV Signals Are Now Digital As of June 12, 2009, all analog TV broadcasts will be discontinued, rendering your analog portable TVs worthless (without a powered converter box + antenna input). $30-$50 $80-$150 http://stormprepare.com/Battery_TV.htm

Battery-Powered Fan A fan can make it easier to get some sleep when the power is out. Some units can operate for several days on a set of batteries. http://www.batterysavers.com/ $30

Generator for Backup Power $350 2 hr. run time $800 Higher output / 12-14 hr. run time

Proper Generator Operation

Only operate outdoors

Keep well away from open doors/windows

Turn off to refuel

Unplug extension cords before starting/stopping

Change oil regularly

$100 $200-$700 Line Conditioners Essential for Clean Power Sensitive electronic equipment requires a stable power source. Never plug such devices directly into a generator, unless your generator has a built-in line conditioner. http://www.lashen.com/vendors/tripplite/conditioners/desktop.asp or http://www.tripplite.com/

Carbon Monoxide Detector $20-$25 Carbon monoxide is a colorless and odorless gas produced as your generator is running. It can kill you and your family as you sleep. CO only CO + smoke $30-$35

Automobile Power Inverter Allows you to use your car to provide AC power to small devices/appliances. Note: Car engine should be running or you’ll run down your battery $30 and up http://www.tripplite.com/

Staying Cool After the Storm $100-$150 A low-cost window AC unit can be installed in minutes. Powered by your generator, it can both cool and dehumidify your bedroom – allowing you to get a good night’s sleep during a prolonged power outage.

Preparing Your Home When a Hurricane Threatens

Check your insurance policy & coverage – does your policy cover flood damage?

Take photos/video of home/possessions and store in a safe place

Repair any loose boards / fencing

Secure all loose objects

Cover your windows

Secure your garage door(s)

Taping Windows Does NOT Protect Your Home

Proper Window Protection Fabric – Vinyl/PVC/Kevlar Plywood – ¾” Recommended Corrugated Metal Protective Screens Goal – prevent rapid air infiltration, which could cause roof failure and total destruction of your home. Have plywood cut BEFORE the season begins.

Hurricane Jeanne Damage in Florida - 2004 Home on the right had hurricane panels on windows

If You Plan to Evacuate

Is your home in a surge zone?

Locate your evacuation route

Many shelters don’t accept pets, though that’s changing

Heed evacuation orders from local officials

Turn off water/electricity to home before leaving

Empty your refrigerator/freezer of perishables

Turn off natural gas supply only if directed to

Not in a surge zone? Consider post-storm evacuation

“ Hide from the wind, run from the surge...”

Hurricane Evacuation Maps for Beaumont/Port Arthur

ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/plans_hurr_maps/ssa_2008_inland_evacuation.pdf

Evacuation Zones by Zip Code http://www.hcfcd.org/tropicalweather/evacuation.html

Proposed NHC Storm Surge Warning Map

Houston Area Contraflow Locations http://www.hcfcd.org/tropicalweather/evacuation.html

Contraflow on I-10 begins at Brookshire

Contraflow on I-45 begins Near Conroe

Contraflow on Hwy. 59 begins north of Humble

Contraflow on Hwy. 290 begins at Hwy. 6

Evacuation Checklist

Important Documents (“Grab-and-Go” folder)

Extra Cash (small bills)

Prescription Medications (2 weeks)

Can of Tire Sealer

Sleeping Bags / Blankets / Pillows

Air Mattresses or Pads

Extra Clothes / Shoes

Toiletries

Pet Cage ( pets may not be allowed at shelters )

If You’re Riding it Out

Have water containers ready to fill

Food – 3-7 days w/o refrigeration

Prescription medications (2 weeks)

Important documents – waterproof case

Get extra propane

Fill gas tanks in vehicles

Ice chest with extra Ice

Fill containers and freeze

Toiletries / personal items

Purchase extra fuel for Generator

Prepare home as if you’re evacuating

Ike – Thu. Sept. 11, 2008

Surviving After the Hurricane Hits

No Electricity / Water

Communications Disrupted

Basic Supplies Hard to Obtain

Roads Blocked by Debris

Damage to Home / Business

Hurricane Ike “POD”

Outlook for the 2009 Season

Major Seasonal Predictors

Strength of El Niño / La Niña

Atlantic sea surface temperature regime (“active” or “inactive” cycle)

Pre-season average surface pressure in main development region

Analog Years

El Ni ñ o vs. La Ni ña Hello there it El Ni ñ o causes extra thunderstorm development over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. This causes a response in the atmosphere over the Atlantic basin of increased shear and sinking air, causing a drier and more stable atmosphere. La Ni ñ a causes a reduction and westward shift in thunderstorms. This forces the maximum sinking air to be located over the eastern Pacific and allows air to rise more freely over the Atlantic basin, in addition to less shear. Upper winds Upper winds

Comparing April 2008 and 2009 Sea Surface Temperatures April 2008 SST Anomalies April 2009 SST Anomalies

El Niño?? Neutral La Niña April 2009 Forecast from NCEP

Warm 1870-1900 Warm 1926-1969 Warm 1995 – 2025? Cool 1900-1926 Cool 1970-1994 The Active Cycle Continues in 2009, Though it’s Probably Peaked Above-Normal SSTs can be Expected for Another 10-15 Years

Cold Atlantic Warm Atlantic Florida and U.S. East Coast Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2006

Analog Years

Some 2009 Forecasts Dr. Bill Gray / Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State): 12 NS / 6 H / 2 MH Dr. Mark Saunders (Tropical Storm Risk – UK): 15 NS / 8 H / 4 MH NC State University 11-14 NS / 6-8 H / No prediction of MH

What We’re Saying at ImpactWeather

SSTs closer to normal

Neutral to weak El Niño by September

Higher pressures in east Atlantic

12 Named Storms 7 Hurricanes 3 Major Hurricanes 2 Hurricanes HSI 20-25 1 Hurricane HSI 25-30 1 Hurricane HSI 30-35

Hurricane Impacts in 2009

Gulf of Mexico – 3 named storms

U.S. East Coast – 1 named storm 1 near miss

Caribbean Sea – 4 named storms

Remain Out to Sea – 6 named storms

2009 Names Kate Wanda Joaquin Victor Ida Teresa Henri Sam Grace Rose Fred Peter Erika Odette Danny Nicholas Claudette Mindy Bill Larry Ana

What about Global Warming?

We have heard from reliable sources that a protest has been filed. Thanks to today’s technology we have the unique opportunity to see those assembled at the demonstration !

To Summarize