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Hurricane Preparedness in Fort Bend County
 

Hurricane Preparedness in Fort Bend County

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    Hurricane Preparedness in Fort Bend County Hurricane Preparedness in Fort Bend County Presentation Transcript

    • Hurricane Ike Review/Outlook for 2010 Looking Back at Ike Dan Reilly National Weather Service Houston/Galveston
    • Outline
      • Hurricane History/Climatology
      • Outlook for 2010 Season
      • Changes for 2010 to NWS Products
    • Oil Spill Update: May 21st, 2010 http://response.restoration.noaa.gov June 1 st , 2010
    • http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/?n=embriefing Loop Current
    • Tropical Cyclone Hazards Storm Surge Tornadoes Flooding Damaging Winds
    • Hurricane Threats STORM SURGE – The abnormal rise in water level directly associated with the wind and pressure forces associated with a hurricane Storm Surge Example – hurricane makes landfall at high tide Storm Surge is highest in right forward quadrant near center as it crosses coast
    • Hurricane Threats Maximum storm surge and wind occur in right forward quadrant , near where center crosses the coast
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    • Radar loop for Ike
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    • Early Rise Trapped some on Bolivar, Galveston Island
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    • Hurricane Ike: Bolivar Peninsula Devastation Image courtesy of www.hawkeyemedia.com/bolivar/
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    • Tropical Storm Allison June 2001 Looped Over SE Texas; 36.99 inches of rain Port of Houston
    • Tropical Storm Claudette July 1979. Looped Over SE Texas; 43 inches of rain measured in Alvin over 24 hours (record)
    • Atlantic Basin Season Season: June 1 – November 30 Systems originate: Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean
    • Hurricane Climatology (continued)
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    • Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index (ACE) Measure of Tropical Cyclone activity: Sum of the square of the maximum wind speed of all storms at least Tropical Storm strength every 6 hours
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    • Outlook for 2010
      • NOAA Outlook
        • 14-23 named storms (11-12)
        • 8-14 Hurricanes (5-6)
        • 3-7 Major Hurricanes (2-3)
        • ACE 155%-270% of median
      • Loss of El Nino, active phase of MDO, and above average sea surface temperatures suggest above average activity
      • Even a low activity season can have a big effect locally: need to prepare
    • Least active season 1983 (4 named storms!)
    • Changes to NWS Products
      • Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watches and Warnings issued 12 hours earlier (48 hours for watches, 36 hours for warnings prior to onset of TS force winds)
      • Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale adopted (ties of category to surge and central pressure taken out of the scale)
    • Now officially adopted: just a wind rating without reference to surge, central pressure New Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category 1-min. Sustained Winds (mph) Storm Examples Wind Impacts 1 74 - 95 Jerry 1989 Very dangerous; will produce Claudette 2003 some damage Humberto 2007 2 96 - 110 Georges 1998 Ike 2008 Extremely dangerous; will produce extensive damage 3 111 - 130 Alicia 1983 Devastating damage Katrina 2005 Rita 2005 4 131 - 155 1900 - Galveston Catastrophic damage Carla 1961 5 > 156 Labor Day 1935 Catastrophic damage Camille 1969 Andrew 1992
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    • Summary
      • Ike was a very large storm, tremendous surge producer
      • Category of storm not a good overall indicator of storm severity
      • 2010 season will likely be more active for Atlantic; no telling how Texas may be impacted