Surviving the Downturn and      Securing the FutureSlovenian Convention       Bureau    June 1st 2009    Rohit Talwar     ...
• If you have any feedback or questions about the material  presented here or the background research, or would  like to d...
Lead or Follow?• Permission to  Believe• Opportunity• Passion• Magnetic                  http://www.designedlearning.com/i...
What do they Have in Common?
Economic OutlookKey indicators       2008              2009               2010               2011              2012    201...
WEF Competitiveness RankingsCountry                             Global Competitiveness                     GCI 2008-2009 s...
Doing Business – Europe’s Top 10       Country                 Ranking on the                 Starting a                Pr...
Innovation in the Sector                        Terme SnovikGrand Hotel Primus   Maya Adrenaline Park
How big is the Crisis? http://nychousingbubble.blogspot.com/2007/10/overstocked-and-overpriced-charge-it.html
Prepare for Alternative Scenarios     8-10%                       Suspicious   Love is in                                 ...
Fast Future Study on the Future    of Travel, Meetings and Events• Electronic survey – running until June 30th 2009• Inter...
Revenue Impact Against 2008            16%                                                                           Growt...
Profit Impact Against 2008            20%                                          25%                                 Gro...
Cost Cutting -                       Emphasis on Innovation -               Increasing Use of Partnerships -      Changing...
Customer Relationships -                           Cost Control -                              Innovation -Marketing and B...
Please describe the strategies and tactics your are          adopting to survive and thrive in the downturn?              ...
What Future are we Creating?• Key Clients• Conversations  that Energise• Key Choices                   http://images.forbe...
Refilling the Tank   http://www.insidesocal.com/tomhoffarth/exhausted.jpg
Free Marketing -Leveraging the Networks
Natural Resource Challenges“Companies that are not adequately managing theconsequences of climate change on their business...
Regional Marketing    http://images.autoline.info/maps/en/europe.gif
Rethinking Exhibitions,Conventions and Training      http://z.about.com/d/eventplanning/1/0/P/2/-/-/exhibition.jpg
Mobilising the AudienceFinding the Tipping Point     http://bloginitiative.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/crowd.jpg
Innovating the                                                               Experiencehttp://z.about.com/d/gocalifornia/1...
Creating Evangelists – Are you Magnetic?    http://www.ripleys.com/assets/img/upload/bions/magnet_man.jpg
Working the ProfessionalsTurning Speakers into your ‘Brand Ambassadors’           http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3507/3236...
Venue 2.0  www.adnec.ae
Food for Thoughthttp://www.lyonresto.com/photo_restaurant/0_photo_automatique/L_atelier_des_Chefs/1_l_atelier_des_chefs.jp...
The Innovation Edgewww.redbaron.com/museum/images/gallery/02.jpg                                                Immersadom...
Airlines in CrisisSources: www.maxjet.com /http://www.classicdriver.com/upload/images/_de/3443/img06pop.jpg / www.flysilve...
Demographic Destinies 2 billion more people in 40 years –Demographics is Driving Economics           445   731 665        ...
Life Redefinedhttp://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/aubrey_de_grey_says_we_can_avoid_aging.html
Economic Power Shifts                      The Top 20 in 2025?GDP US$               Source: IMF WEO 2009, PwC ‘the World i...
Innovating Travel – The Middle EastUS$ 4.1 Trillion investment by 2025    Over 1170 new hotels offering 820,000+ rooms by ...
Unbundling the $4.1 Trillion• Hotels                  US$ 389Bn• Leisure Developments    US$ 1673Bn• Airlines             ...
Future of Travel              What will happen to your personal flying behaviour by 2015?• 65% expect costs to rise on  do...
I will book the bulk of my travel online by 2015                   64%                                                    ...
Hotel Stays in 2015     What do you expect to happen to your personal hotel stays by 2015?                                ...
Self-Organising Events                                                                           Event organisers will sho...
Unconferences and Large                   Group Interventions•    Open Space•    Simu-Real•    Real Time Strategic Change•...
Event Content• Professional speakers will be a rarity as events will focus              34%  more on interaction between d...
Event Design• Less large open stands and  more ‘appointment only’ booths  or suites (58%)• Live product launches will be  ...
Geolocationhttp://people.kmi.open.ac.uk/marc/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2006/10/radiusim.jpg
Multi-    Sensory    Experienceshttp://delivery.acm.org/10.1145/1190000/1186267/p35-haque.pdf?key1=1186267&key2=4018883711...
Augmented Reality     Video visors will record everything you see and hear at     an event in full 3D so you can replay it...
Event Technology      Use of display technologies such as 3D television and 3D      holograms will be common in live prese...
Technology – Smart Phones   Telephony                                                     Connectivity   •   Voice        ...
Virtual Meetings    Most conferences    will combine a live    event with online    participation via    virtual worlds   ...
TelepresenceTelepresence video conferencing will be used to replace at least 50% ofinternational in-company meetings (50%)...
Event Alternatives• Most companies will insist on staff participating remotely             71%  using 3D meeting technolog...
Event Economics                                                                Up       Down• Price of attending a        ...
Delegate Business Models• Most events will have free                                             32%  attendance – paid fo...
Exhibitor Charging Models• Events will offer exhibitors free stands                                                       ...
New Revenue Models•    Live event attendees will have                                      56%     their participation fee...
Environmenthttp://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/06/16/PH2008061601786.jpg
Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events
Environmental Control• Hotels and venues that do not have a zero                              23%  environmental footprint...
What does the timeline ofdevelopments look like for your        key markets?
Meeting 2015 - Conclusions• Demand will hold up• Live still alive• Technology central to  future delivery• New business mo...
Designing Your Future• 50 key trends• 100 emerging trends• 10 major patterns of change• Key challenges and choices for  le...
Rohit Talwar - Profile•   Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.•   Award winning speaker on future insights...
Our Services                                    Bespoke research; Identification &                                    Anal...
Example Projects•   Public and private client research e.g. the future of :     – The Future of Luxury Real Estate in the ...
Our Clients
Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau  01 June 2009
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Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau 01 June 2009

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Presentation to the Slovenian Convention Industry on the future of business events.

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Rohit Talwar -Surviving the Downturn and Securing the Future - Slovenian Convention Bureau 01 June 2009

  1. 1. Surviving the Downturn and Securing the FutureSlovenian Convention Bureau June 1st 2009 Rohit Talwar CEO Fast Future rohit@fastfuture.com Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766 http://www.sycp.si
  2. 2. • If you have any feedback or questions about the material presented here or the background research, or would like to discuss a potential research project, consultancy assignment or speaking engagement for your organization please contact rohit@fastfuture.com• If you would like to take part in our survey on the future of travel and meetings, please go to http://tinyurl.com/future-travel-and-events• We will donate $1 to children’s charities for each respondent – the survey closing date is June 30th 2009• If you would like details on our forthcoming seminar on Winning in a Downturn in London on June 22nd , 6pm – please email events@fastfuture.com
  3. 3. Lead or Follow?• Permission to Believe• Opportunity• Passion• Magnetic http://www.designedlearning.com/images/AsGoesTheFollower.JPG• Relationships
  4. 4. What do they Have in Common?
  5. 5. Economic OutlookKey indicators 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Real GDP 3.5 -4.0 0.5 3.3 3.9 4.3growth (%)Consumer price 5.7 1.2 1.8 2.6 2.2 2.5inflation (av; %)Budget Balance -0.3 -4.6 -2.9 -2.8 -1.6 -1.1(% of GDP)Current-account -6.4 -2.8 -3.3 -2.2 -2.3 -1.3balance (% ofGDP) http://www.economist.com/countries/Slovenia/profile.cfm?folder=Profile-Economic%20Data
  6. 6. WEF Competitiveness RankingsCountry Global Competitiveness GCI 2008-2009 score Index Ranking 2008-09United States 1 5.74Switzerland 2 5.61Denmark 3 5.58Sweden 4 5.53Singapore 5 5.53Slovenia 45 4.50 http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/gcp/Global%20Competitiveness%20Report/index.htm
  7. 7. Doing Business – Europe’s Top 10 Country Ranking on the Starting a Protecting Enforcing ease of doing business investors contracts business (rank) (rank) (rank) Denmark 5 16 24 29 U.K 6 8 9 24 Ireland 7 5 5 39 Norway 10 33 18 7 Finland 14 18 53 5 Sweden 17 30 53 55 Belgium 19 20 15 22 Switzerland 21 52 164 32 Estonia 22 23 53 30 Germany 25 102 88 9 Slovenia 54 41 18 79 Greece* 96 133 150 85* Worst in E.U Selected Indicators only. For a full list visit http://www.doingbusiness.org/Documents/FullReport/2009/DB_2009_English.pdf
  8. 8. Innovation in the Sector Terme SnovikGrand Hotel Primus Maya Adrenaline Park
  9. 9. How big is the Crisis? http://nychousingbubble.blogspot.com/2007/10/overstocked-and-overpriced-charge-it.html
  10. 10. Prepare for Alternative Scenarios 8-10% Suspicious Love is in Minds the AirGDPGrowth Dancing inIndia 6-7% the DarkandChina Road to 3-4% Nowhere Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3% GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan
  11. 11. Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events• Electronic survey – running until June 30th 2009• Interim results presented here• 614 responses to date• Questions on how the industry is responding to the downturn and on scenarios for the industry in 2015• Targeted both the industry and their customers• $1 donate to Children’s charities for each person who responds• To complete the survey please visit http://tinyurl.com/future-travel-and-events• For further details contact rohit@fastfuture.com
  12. 12. Revenue Impact Against 2008 16% Growth 28% Flat 2009 Decline 19% 43% 56% 2010 12% 38% 9% 2015 79%Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
  13. 13. Profit Impact Against 2008 20% 25% Growth Flat 2009 Decline 25% 38% 55% 2010 18% 37% 9% 2015 73%Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
  14. 14. Cost Cutting - Emphasis on Innovation - Increasing Use of Partnerships - Changing Organisational Structure - Renegotiating Contracts with Suppliers - Headcount Reduction - Changing Business Model - Changing our Basic Strategy - Increased Marketing - More New Product Development - Focus on Premium Products - Staff Motivation Activities - Looking for Acquisitions - Reduction of Product Range - Price Increases - Selling Parts of the Business - No Change - Other -Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
  15. 15. Customer Relationships - Cost Control - Innovation -Marketing and Brand Promotion - Clear Internal Communications - Supplier Relationships - Other -Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
  16. 16. Please describe the strategies and tactics your are adopting to survive and thrive in the downturn? Meetings IndustrySource: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
  17. 17. What Future are we Creating?• Key Clients• Conversations that Energise• Key Choices http://images.forbes.com/media/2008/02/22/downturn.jpg
  18. 18. Refilling the Tank http://www.insidesocal.com/tomhoffarth/exhausted.jpg
  19. 19. Free Marketing -Leveraging the Networks
  20. 20. Natural Resource Challenges“Companies that are not adequately managing theconsequences of climate change on their business willnot be welcomed as our customers in the future” Rick MurrayImageshttp://www.masdarctf.com/images/aboutus_image.jpg Chief Claims Strategisthttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7180396.stmhttp://www.operationnoah.org/images/uploads/Burning_planet_411x220.jpghttp://www.ci.tarpon-springs.fl.us/water%201.jpg Swiss Re Image sources www.mondolithic.com, www.metoffice.com
  21. 21. Regional Marketing http://images.autoline.info/maps/en/europe.gif
  22. 22. Rethinking Exhibitions,Conventions and Training http://z.about.com/d/eventplanning/1/0/P/2/-/-/exhibition.jpg
  23. 23. Mobilising the AudienceFinding the Tipping Point http://bloginitiative.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/crowd.jpg
  24. 24. Innovating the Experiencehttp://z.about.com/d/gocalifornia/1/0/T/l/KA_SlaveCage.jpghttp://floatingterritories.org/ef10st/img/openspace.jpg
  25. 25. Creating Evangelists – Are you Magnetic? http://www.ripleys.com/assets/img/upload/bions/magnet_man.jpg
  26. 26. Working the ProfessionalsTurning Speakers into your ‘Brand Ambassadors’ http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3507/3236880311_c9bdb41a01.jpg
  27. 27. Venue 2.0 www.adnec.ae
  28. 28. Food for Thoughthttp://www.lyonresto.com/photo_restaurant/0_photo_automatique/L_atelier_des_Chefs/1_l_atelier_des_chefs.jpg http://www.matteothun.com/.data/objects/198/img/VAP_01_2.jpg
  29. 29. The Innovation Edgewww.redbaron.com/museum/images/gallery/02.jpg Immersadome – VirTra Systems
  30. 30. Airlines in CrisisSources: www.maxjet.com /http://www.classicdriver.com/upload/images/_de/3443/img06pop.jpg / www.flysilverjet.com
  31. 31. Demographic Destinies 2 billion more people in 40 years –Demographics is Driving Economics 445 731 665 5266 339 1998 4034 769 965 572 2008 2050 Source : United Nations
  32. 32. Life Redefinedhttp://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/aubrey_de_grey_says_we_can_avoid_aging.html
  33. 33. Economic Power Shifts The Top 20 in 2025?GDP US$ Source: IMF WEO 2009, PwC ‘the World in 2050 March 2008 edition
  34. 34. Innovating Travel – The Middle EastUS$ 4.1 Trillion investment by 2025 Over 1170 new hotels offering 820,000+ rooms by 2025 Capacity for 320 million extra passengers by 2012 130 new aircraft by 2030 170 million Tourists by 2020
  35. 35. Unbundling the $4.1 Trillion• Hotels US$ 389Bn• Leisure Developments US$ 1673Bn• Airlines US$ 212Bn• Airports US$ 59Bn• Cruise Lines US$ 10Bn• Tourism Promotion / Underlying Infrastructure US$ 1757Bn
  36. 36. Future of Travel What will happen to your personal flying behaviour by 2015?• 65% expect costs to rise on domestic and international flights Up Down• Personal flights (Dom) 29% 28%• Personal flights (Int) 39% 24%• Travel Budgets 44% 32% http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/10/15/SingaporeA380_w ideweb__470x312,0.jpg http://airlinewallpapers.com/gallery/albums/GermanWings/GermaSource: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events nwingsA319.png
  37. 37. I will book the bulk of my travel online by 2015 64% 31% 3% 2% Very likely Likely Unlikely Very unlikelySource: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
  38. 38. Hotel Stays in 2015 What do you expect to happen to your personal hotel stays by 2015? Up Down• No. of nights (Dom) 31% 27%• No. of nights (Int) 42% 23%• Hotel Budgets 40% 32%Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
  39. 39. Self-Organising Events Event organisers will show online videos of potential speakers and delegates will vote on who they most want to see (78%)Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
  40. 40. Unconferences and Large Group Interventions• Open Space• Simu-Real• Real Time Strategic Change• Valentines• Future Search• Foo Camp• Bar CampMost conferences and events willincorporate large group processes such asOpen Space to facilitate joint problemsolving and sharing of ideas (82%) http://www.ietm.org/upload/pictures/2_20070417203356.jpgSource: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events http://floatingterritories.org/ef10st/img/openspace.jpg
  41. 41. Event Content• Professional speakers will be a rarity as events will focus 34% more on interaction between delegates• Speakers will be paid based on the evaluations they 48% receiveSource: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
  42. 42. Event Design• Less large open stands and more ‘appointment only’ booths or suites (58%)• Live product launches will be rare and most will happen over the internet (53%)• Budgets for meeting and event design will decrease relative to 2008 (59%) http://www.civilization.ca/cmc/exhibitions/aborig/iqqaipaa/images/exhibition1.jpg• The use of external meeting planners will decrease relative to 2008 (52%)Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events
  43. 43. Geolocationhttp://people.kmi.open.ac.uk/marc/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2006/10/radiusim.jpg
  44. 44. Multi- Sensory Experienceshttp://delivery.acm.org/10.1145/1190000/1186267/p35-haque.pdf?key1=1186267&key2=4018883711&coll=&dl=ACM&CFID=15151515&CFTOKEN=6184618
  45. 45. Augmented Reality Video visors will record everything you see and hear at an event in full 3D so you can replay it and relay it to your colleagues (60%) http://www.theapplecollection.com/design/pcproto/images/segavr.jpgSource: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events http://www.virtualworldlets.net/Resources/Hosted/Resource.php?Name=ARWillWork
  46. 46. Event Technology Use of display technologies such as 3D television and 3D holograms will be common in live presentations (86%) http://www.hdtvinfo.eu/pics/Philips_3D_TV.jpgSource: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://farm1.static.flickr.com/50/108326490_479ba8be45.jpg?v=0
  47. 47. Technology – Smart Phones Telephony Connectivity • Voice • Cellular • Messaging • Up to 14 bands • SIM card • WLAN/BT • Phonebook • GPS • Ring Tones • NFC • Security • FM Data/ Multimedia Enterprise • Camera 8-16M • 100Mbps • Camcorder • Email • 24M Color Display • IMS • Memory (160GB) • Browsing • Multiformat A/V • HD Video/TV out • VPN • Games • PIM • Ecommerce Software (50-100M Tps) • Protocols • DRM • Payments • Middleware • Applications • User Interface • Minimize fragmentationParticipants will be able to monitor an entire event via their mobile phone anddetermine which sessions to attend based on live video feeds (82%)
  48. 48. Virtual Meetings Most conferences will combine a live event with online participation via virtual worlds such as Second Life (72%)Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://meetingtechonline.com/articles_Hosting_Virtual_Conferences.aspx
  49. 49. TelepresenceTelepresence video conferencing will be used to replace at least 50% ofinternational in-company meetings (50%)Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://i.treehugger.com/images/2007/5/24/videoconferencing.gif
  50. 50. Event Alternatives• Most companies will insist on staff participating remotely 71% using 3D meeting technology (such as video visors and augmented reality) instead of travelling to events unless essential• Meeting rooms will generally include large 3D displays so 81% that people can attend remotely• Many virtual environment websites (like todays Second Life) will exist to provide businesses with suitably equipped 58% on-line meeting areas, staffed by AI assistants.Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events
  51. 51. Event Economics Up Down• Price of attending a 57% 28% conference or meeting• Cost of running a 70% 19% conference or meeting• Number of conferences 28% 35% and meetings you’ll attend• Your budget for 36% 36% conference / meeting attendanceSource: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://www.climatechangefraud.com/content/blogcategory/15/224/7/14/
  52. 52. Delegate Business Models• Most events will have free 32% attendance – paid for by sponsors• Key attendees will wear sponsor 51% logos in return for free participation at events• Events will adopt a ‘pay what you 22% think it’s worth’ model for attendeesSource: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events
  53. 53. Exhibitor Charging Models• Events will offer exhibitors free stands 42% in return for a proportion of the revenues generated from an event• Event organisers will offer free exhibitor 51% space in return for a fee per pre-booked meeting• Event organisers will offer free exhibitor 55% space in return for a fee per visitorSource: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events
  54. 54. New Revenue Models• Live event attendees will have 56% their participation fees reduced according to the number of attendees they can generate for a parallel virtual event• Presentations at events will 88% be streamed live to the web so remote participants can pay to watch individual sessions• All conference sessions will 86% available to watch on a pay per view basis after the event http://www.aacr.org/Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events http://www.changethethought.com/wp-content/ted.jpg
  55. 55. Environmenthttp://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/06/16/PH2008061601786.jpg
  56. 56. Source: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events
  57. 57. Environmental Control• Hotels and venues that do not have a zero 23% environmental footprint (waste, energy use, emissions) will be out of business• Offsetting of emissions will be mandatory for all 77% airlines• Passengers will face personal carbon limits that 25% dramatically restrict the number of flights they can take• Business people will need to apply for permits to fly, 18% proving the business benefit outweighs environmental impactSource: Fast Future Study on the Future of Travel, Meetings and Events
  58. 58. What does the timeline ofdevelopments look like for your key markets?
  59. 59. Meeting 2015 - Conclusions• Demand will hold up• Live still alive• Technology central to future delivery• New business models will evolve• Sustainability still on the agenda http://www.mrcheckout.net/tradeshow454.jpg http://davebost.com/images/FlyingaroundaVisualStudioLaunchevent_1331A/SLLaunch.jpg
  60. 60. Designing Your Future• 50 key trends• 100 emerging trends• 10 major patterns of change• Key challenges and choices for leaders• Strategic decision making framework• Scenarios for 2012• Key futures tools and techniques• Published August 2008• Price $69.95 / £49.95 / €54.95• Email invoice request to rohit@fastfuture.com
  61. 61. Rohit Talwar - Profile• Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic innovation – addressing leadership audiences in 40 countries on 5 continents• Author of Designing Your Future – Published 08/2008• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top 10 Global Future Thinkers• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications, technology, pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism, environment, food and government sectors• Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De Beers, DHL, EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai, IBM, ING, Intel, KPMG, M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis, OECD, Orange, Panasonic, Pfizer, PwC, Samsung, Shell, Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous international associations and governments in the US, UK, Finland, Dubai, Nigeria, S. Arabia and Singapore.
  62. 62. Our Services Bespoke research; Identification & Analysis of Future Trends, Drivers & Shocks Public Speaking, In- Company Briefings, Accelerated Scenario Seminars and Planning, Timelining & Workshops Future MappingPersonal Futuring forLeaders and Leadership Expert Consultations &Teams Futures Think Tanks Identification of Design & Facilitation of Opportunities for Innovation, Incubation Innovation and Strategic & Venturing Programmes Strategy Creation & Investment Development of Implementation Roadmaps
  63. 63. Example Projects• Public and private client research e.g. the future of : – The Future of Luxury Real Estate in the Middle East – Designing Your Future (Published August 2008) – book written for the American Society of Association Executives & The Center for Association Leadership – Travel and tourism e.g. The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East – a Vision to 2020 (Underway) – Future of Travel and Tourism Investment in Saudi Arabia (Underway) – Scenarios for the global economy for 2030 and the implications for migration (underway) – Global Economies – e.g. The Future of China – the Path to 2020 – Winning in India and China – Aviation and Airports e.g. Aviation 2030 – Meetings, conferences , exhibitions and events – e.g. One Step Beyond – Future trends and challenges for the events industry• Strategic advice to industry players• Confidential advisory and coaching services to CEOs and top teams• Public speaking at public conferences and in-company events• Future thinking workshops and retreats
  64. 64. Our Clients
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