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The Future of Travel and TourismITB Convention – Berlin - March 11th 2009     Rohit Talwar - CEO - Fast Future            ...
For details on Fast Future’sseminar on Winning in a Downturn      April 30th 2009 - 6pm      QE II Centre London          ...
What do they Have in Common?They all started in an economic downturn
How will the Downturn Develop?          http://www.borev.net/imf.jpg
Prepare for Alternative Scenarios     8-10%                       Suspicious   Love is in                                 ...
Airlines in CrisisSources: www.flysilverjet.com / www.maxjet.com / http://www.classicdriver.com/upload/images/_de/3443/img...
Demographic Destinies3 billion more people in 40 years –Demographics is Driving Economics           445   731 665         ...
Economic Power Shifts    The Top 20 in 2025?                          Source: www.gs.com
Middle East Travel and TourismUS$ 3.76 Trillion investment by 2020   Over 900 new hotels offering 750,000+ rooms by 2020  ...
Revenue Impact Against 2008          16%                                                                                  ...
Profit Impact Against 2008          20%                                  25%                                              ...
Cost Cutting -                   Emphasis on Innovation -            Increasing Use of Partnerships -      Changing Organi...
Customer Relationships -                       Cost Control -                         Innovation - Marketing and Brand Pro...
Vacations 201547% - More48% - Shorter70% - More Low Cost20% - More LuxuryData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future ofT...
81% 76%http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/time-zone/usa/images/vacation-travel.jpg   http://stephen.banksie.co.uk/research/w...
Leveraging the Networks                  74% - Will use Networks to Research and Find DealsData Source: Fast Future Survey...
64%                                             31%                                                                       ...
Travel Expectations in 2015                                                                                           Up  ...
Air Travel 2015http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/10/15/SingaporeA380_wideweb__470x312,0.jpg
Air Travel in 2015• 65% expect costs to rise on domestic and  international flights                                       ...
New Business Models85% - In-Flight / In-Room66% - Experience Lounges53% - Testing Vacations67% - Monetize Clients         ...
Under 100 US Airports by 2015?                  38%               http://www.visitingdc.com/images/jfk-airport-address.jpg...
Airports only in Major Euro Cities                  40%                 http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/aircraft-picture...
Low Cost Carriers   62% - Half will Collapse      49% - Massive Growth                               http://airlinewallpap...
New Business Models /                      New Airlines                  62%                   http://upload.wikimedia.org...
Preference for Rail over Air                              66% - Europe                                   18% - USA        ...
Innovations will Continue to Emerge   – e.g. Jumbo Hostel, Sweden        http://www.jumbohostel.com/DynPage.aspx?id=64673&...
Mobile Hotels - Movil   http://www.ohgizmo.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/hotel_movil.jpg
Rig Hotelshttp://www.gizmag.com/from-oilrig-to-luxury-eco-resort-11156/11156/picture/70690/
Hello Hypersonic?                  48%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future ofTravel, Marketing and Events Februar...
$20,000 Commercial Spaceflight?                  29%Image source: Virgin GalacticData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Fu...
Space Hotels?                  18%                       http://www.bornrich.org/images/space-hotel_18.jpgData Source: Fas...
Airship Hotels                  30%                                                                                 Source...
Augmented Reality                                     69%                                http://www.theapplecollection.com...
23%                                                                                             www.mondolithic.comData So...
Environmenthttp://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/06/16/PH2008061601786.jpg
Don’t Make What you Don’t NeedFrom requirement analysis through contract negotiation to implementation anddemobilization i...
Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
Environmental Control• Hotels and venues that do not have a zero environmental                                            ...
What does the timeline ofdevelopments look like for your        key markets?
Travel 2015 - Conclusions• Demand will hold up• Airline profitability is  critical• New business models  will evolve• Sust...
If you would like to take part in our study on the future of meetings     and travel, sign up to ournewsletter or receive ...
Rohit Talwar - Future of Travel - ITB Berlin - 11th March 2009 Handout
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Rohit Talwar - Future of Travel - ITB Berlin - 11th March 2009 Handout

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  • rohit@fastfuture.com Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766 Mob +44 (0)7973 405145
  • Everyone asks what a futurist does – well even the most powerful people need help to take the lens caps off! Our job is to help leaders ensure that in the decisions we make today we are creating real strategic options for the future
  • http://www.borev.net/imf.jpg
  • We need a plan B, C and D because none of us can be sure how the future will play out – but these are all viable options from where we stand today
  • The first pattern of change I’d like to talk about is the fundamental shift happening in the global population. Based on current projections, by 2050 the growth in Asia will be bigger than the entire population of North America and Europe combined. Hispanics could be one fourth of the US population within ten years So this raises the question how well represented are we among minorities / should we be targeting them In the last 30 years, China has taken more than 400 million people out of poverty and across the developing world this pattern is being repeated – a trend that is helping to drive shifts in the distribution of economic power and wealth across the globe...
  • 203 Respondents Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • 204 Respondents Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • http://www.maskworld.com/pix/costumes/large/91099-urlauber-fat-suit-tourist-fat-suit.jpg
  • http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/time-zone/usa/images/vacation-travel.jpg http://stephen.banksie.co.uk/research/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/louvre33.jpg Http://www.umanitoba.ca/campus/physical_plant/media/sustainability.jpg http://www.travelblog.org/Photos/1848797.html
  • http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/10/15/SingaporeA380_wideweb__470x312,0.jpg
  • http://www.climatechangefraud.com/content/blogcategory/15/224/7/14/
  • http://www.visitingdc.com/images/jfk-airport-address.jpg
  • http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/aircraft-pictures/T5large.jpg
  • http://airlinewallpapers.com/gallery/albums/GermanWings/GermanwingsA319.png
  • http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/Lufthansa-1.jpg
  • http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2005/1907769952_82c4b8d1fb_o.jpg
  • http://www.jumbohostel.com/DynPage.aspx?id=64673&mn1=5293&mn2=5302
  • http://www.ohgizmo.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/hotel_movil.jpg
  • http://www.gizmag.com/from-oilrig-to-luxury-eco-resort-11156/11156/picture/70690/
  • http://www.bornrich.org/images/space-hotel_18.jpg
  • http://www.theapplecollection.com/design/pcproto/images/segavr.jpg
  • http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/06/16/PH2008061601786.jpg
  • Personal Carbon Limits 24% Business permits to travel 18%
  • http://dubaiworld.files.wordpress.com/2007/06/dubailand-wheel.jpg
  • Transcript of "Rohit Talwar - Future of Travel - ITB Berlin - 11th March 2009 Handout"

    1. 1. The Future of Travel and TourismITB Convention – Berlin - March 11th 2009 Rohit Talwar - CEO - Fast Future Image source: Hydropolis, Dubai rohit@fastfuture.com Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766 Mob +44 (0)7973 405145
    2. 2. For details on Fast Future’sseminar on Winning in a Downturn April 30th 2009 - 6pm QE II Centre London please email seminars@fastfuture.com
    3. 3. What do they Have in Common?They all started in an economic downturn
    4. 4. How will the Downturn Develop? http://www.borev.net/imf.jpg
    5. 5. Prepare for Alternative Scenarios 8-10% Suspicious Love is in Minds the AirGDPGrowth Dancing inIndia 6-7% the DarkandChina Road to Nowhere 1-2% Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3% GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan
    6. 6. Airlines in CrisisSources: www.flysilverjet.com / www.maxjet.com / http://www.classicdriver.com/upload/images/_de/3443/img06pop.jpg
    7. 7. Demographic Destinies3 billion more people in 40 years –Demographics is Driving Economics 445 731 665 5266 339 1998 4034 769 965 572 2008 2050 Source: UN Source : United Nations
    8. 8. Economic Power Shifts The Top 20 in 2025? Source: www.gs.com
    9. 9. Middle East Travel and TourismUS$ 3.76 Trillion investment by 2020 Over 900 new hotels offering 750,000+ rooms by 2020 Capacity for 320 million extra passengers by 2012 900+ new aircraft by 2027 170 million Tourists by 2020 rohit@fastfuture.com
    10. 10. Revenue Impact Against 2008 16% Growth 28% Flat 2009 Decline 19% 43% 56% 2010 12% 38% 9% 2015 79%203 RespondentsSource: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    11. 11. Profit Impact Against 2008 20% 25% Growth Flat 2009 Decline 25% 38% 55% 2010 18% 37% 9% 2015 73%204 RespondentsSource: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    12. 12. Cost Cutting - Emphasis on Innovation - Increasing Use of Partnerships - Changing Organisational Structure - Renegotiating Contracts with Suppliers - Headcount Reduction - Changing Business Model - Changing our Basic Strategy - Increased Marketing - More New Product Development - Focus on Premium Products - Staff Motivation Activities - Looking for Acquisitions - Reduction of Product Range - Price Increases - Selling Parts of the Business - No Change - Other -Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    13. 13. Customer Relationships - Cost Control - Innovation - Marketing and Brand Promotion - Clear Internal Communications - Supplier Relationships - Other -Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    14. 14. Vacations 201547% - More48% - Shorter70% - More Low Cost20% - More LuxuryData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future ofTravel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009 http://www.maskworld.com/pix/costumes/large/91099-urlauber-fat-suit-tourist-fat-suit.jpg
    15. 15. 81% 76%http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/time-zone/usa/images/vacation-travel.jpg http://stephen.banksie.co.uk/research/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/louvre33.jpg 62% 80% Http://www.umanitoba.ca/campus/physical_plant/media/sustainability.jpg http://www.travelblog.org/Photos/1848797.htmlData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    16. 16. Leveraging the Networks 74% - Will use Networks to Research and Find DealsData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    17. 17. 64% 31% 3% 2%Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    18. 18. Travel Expectations in 2015 Up Down• No. of domestic nights 31% 27%• No. of international nights 42% 23%• Hotel Budgets 40% 32%Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    19. 19. Air Travel 2015http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/10/15/SingaporeA380_wideweb__470x312,0.jpg
    20. 20. Air Travel in 2015• 65% expect costs to rise on domestic and international flights Up Down• Personal domestic flights 29% 28%• Personal international flights 39% 24%• Travel Budgets 44% 32%Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    21. 21. New Business Models85% - In-Flight / In-Room66% - Experience Lounges53% - Testing Vacations67% - Monetize Clients http://www.climatechangefraud.com/content/blogcategory/15/224/7/14/Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    22. 22. Under 100 US Airports by 2015? 38% http://www.visitingdc.com/images/jfk-airport-address.jpgData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    23. 23. Airports only in Major Euro Cities 40% http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/aircraft-pictures/T5large.jpgData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    24. 24. Low Cost Carriers 62% - Half will Collapse 49% - Massive Growth http://airlinewallpapers.com/gallery/albums/GermanWings/GermanwingsA319.pngData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    25. 25. New Business Models / New Airlines 62% http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/Lufthansa-1.jpgData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    26. 26. Preference for Rail over Air 66% - Europe 18% - USA http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2005/1907769952_82c4b8d1fb_o.jpgData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    27. 27. Innovations will Continue to Emerge – e.g. Jumbo Hostel, Sweden http://www.jumbohostel.com/DynPage.aspx?id=64673&mn1=5293&mn2=5302
    28. 28. Mobile Hotels - Movil http://www.ohgizmo.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/hotel_movil.jpg
    29. 29. Rig Hotelshttp://www.gizmag.com/from-oilrig-to-luxury-eco-resort-11156/11156/picture/70690/
    30. 30. Hello Hypersonic? 48%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future ofTravel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009 www.mondolithic.com
    31. 31. $20,000 Commercial Spaceflight? 29%Image source: Virgin GalacticData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    32. 32. Space Hotels? 18% http://www.bornrich.org/images/space-hotel_18.jpgData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    33. 33. Airship Hotels 30% Source: AeroscraftData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    34. 34. Augmented Reality 69% http://www.theapplecollection.com/design/pcproto/images/segavr.jpgData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    35. 35. 23% www.mondolithic.comData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    36. 36. Environmenthttp://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/06/16/PH2008061601786.jpg
    37. 37. Don’t Make What you Don’t NeedFrom requirement analysis through contract negotiation to implementation anddemobilization in months Source: Siemens Industrial Solutions & Services - Airport Logistics
    38. 38. Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    39. 39. Environmental Control• Hotels and venues that do not have a zero environmental 23% footprint (waste, energy use, emissions) will be out of business• Offsetting of emissions will be mandatory for all airlines 77%• Passengers will face personal carbon limits that dramatically restrict the number of flights they can take 25%• Business people will need to apply for permits to fly, proving the business benefit outweighs environmental impact 18%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
    40. 40. What does the timeline ofdevelopments look like for your key markets?
    41. 41. Travel 2015 - Conclusions• Demand will hold up• Airline profitability is critical• New business models will evolve• Sustainability still on the agenda http://dubaiworld.files.wordpress.com/2007/06/dubailand-wheel.jpg
    42. 42. If you would like to take part in our study on the future of meetings and travel, sign up to ournewsletter or receive the research studies mentioned please email research@fastfuture.com
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