Rohit Talwar - Future of Travel - ITB Berlin - 11th March 2009 Handout
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Rohit Talwar - Future of Travel - ITB Berlin - 11th March 2009 Handout

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Presentation to ITB Berlin 2009

Presentation to ITB Berlin 2009

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  • rohit@fastfuture.com Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766 Mob +44 (0)7973 405145
  • Everyone asks what a futurist does – well even the most powerful people need help to take the lens caps off! Our job is to help leaders ensure that in the decisions we make today we are creating real strategic options for the future
  • http://www.borev.net/imf.jpg
  • We need a plan B, C and D because none of us can be sure how the future will play out – but these are all viable options from where we stand today
  • The first pattern of change I’d like to talk about is the fundamental shift happening in the global population. Based on current projections, by 2050 the growth in Asia will be bigger than the entire population of North America and Europe combined. Hispanics could be one fourth of the US population within ten years So this raises the question how well represented are we among minorities / should we be targeting them In the last 30 years, China has taken more than 400 million people out of poverty and across the developing world this pattern is being repeated – a trend that is helping to drive shifts in the distribution of economic power and wealth across the globe...
  • 203 Respondents Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • 204 Respondents Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • http://www.maskworld.com/pix/costumes/large/91099-urlauber-fat-suit-tourist-fat-suit.jpg
  • http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/time-zone/usa/images/vacation-travel.jpg http://stephen.banksie.co.uk/research/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/louvre33.jpg Http://www.umanitoba.ca/campus/physical_plant/media/sustainability.jpg http://www.travelblog.org/Photos/1848797.html
  • http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/10/15/SingaporeA380_wideweb__470x312,0.jpg
  • http://www.climatechangefraud.com/content/blogcategory/15/224/7/14/
  • http://www.visitingdc.com/images/jfk-airport-address.jpg
  • http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/aircraft-pictures/T5large.jpg
  • http://airlinewallpapers.com/gallery/albums/GermanWings/GermanwingsA319.png
  • http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/Lufthansa-1.jpg
  • http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2005/1907769952_82c4b8d1fb_o.jpg
  • http://www.jumbohostel.com/DynPage.aspx?id=64673&mn1=5293&mn2=5302
  • http://www.ohgizmo.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/hotel_movil.jpg
  • http://www.gizmag.com/from-oilrig-to-luxury-eco-resort-11156/11156/picture/70690/
  • http://www.bornrich.org/images/space-hotel_18.jpg
  • http://www.theapplecollection.com/design/pcproto/images/segavr.jpg
  • http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/06/16/PH2008061601786.jpg
  • Personal Carbon Limits 24% Business permits to travel 18%
  • http://dubaiworld.files.wordpress.com/2007/06/dubailand-wheel.jpg

Rohit Talwar - Future of Travel - ITB Berlin - 11th March 2009 Handout Rohit Talwar - Future of Travel - ITB Berlin - 11th March 2009 Handout Presentation Transcript

  • The Future of Travel and TourismITB Convention – Berlin - March 11th 2009 Rohit Talwar - CEO - Fast Future Image source: Hydropolis, Dubai rohit@fastfuture.com Tel +44 (0)20 8830 0766 Mob +44 (0)7973 405145
  • For details on Fast Future’sseminar on Winning in a Downturn April 30th 2009 - 6pm QE II Centre London please email seminars@fastfuture.com
  • What do they Have in Common?They all started in an economic downturn
  • How will the Downturn Develop? http://www.borev.net/imf.jpg
  • Prepare for Alternative Scenarios 8-10% Suspicious Love is in Minds the AirGDPGrowth Dancing inIndia 6-7% the DarkandChina Road to Nowhere 1-2% Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3% GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan
  • Airlines in CrisisSources: www.flysilverjet.com / www.maxjet.com / http://www.classicdriver.com/upload/images/_de/3443/img06pop.jpg
  • Demographic Destinies3 billion more people in 40 years –Demographics is Driving Economics 445 731 665 5266 339 1998 4034 769 965 572 2008 2050 Source: UN Source : United Nations
  • Economic Power Shifts The Top 20 in 2025? Source: www.gs.com
  • Middle East Travel and TourismUS$ 3.76 Trillion investment by 2020 Over 900 new hotels offering 750,000+ rooms by 2020 Capacity for 320 million extra passengers by 2012 900+ new aircraft by 2027 170 million Tourists by 2020 rohit@fastfuture.com
  • Revenue Impact Against 2008 16% Growth 28% Flat 2009 Decline 19% 43% 56% 2010 12% 38% 9% 2015 79%203 RespondentsSource: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Profit Impact Against 2008 20% 25% Growth Flat 2009 Decline 25% 38% 55% 2010 18% 37% 9% 2015 73%204 RespondentsSource: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Cost Cutting - Emphasis on Innovation - Increasing Use of Partnerships - Changing Organisational Structure - Renegotiating Contracts with Suppliers - Headcount Reduction - Changing Business Model - Changing our Basic Strategy - Increased Marketing - More New Product Development - Focus on Premium Products - Staff Motivation Activities - Looking for Acquisitions - Reduction of Product Range - Price Increases - Selling Parts of the Business - No Change - Other -Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Customer Relationships - Cost Control - Innovation - Marketing and Brand Promotion - Clear Internal Communications - Supplier Relationships - Other -Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Vacations 201547% - More48% - Shorter70% - More Low Cost20% - More LuxuryData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future ofTravel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009 http://www.maskworld.com/pix/costumes/large/91099-urlauber-fat-suit-tourist-fat-suit.jpg
  • 81% 76%http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/time-zone/usa/images/vacation-travel.jpg http://stephen.banksie.co.uk/research/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/louvre33.jpg 62% 80% Http://www.umanitoba.ca/campus/physical_plant/media/sustainability.jpg http://www.travelblog.org/Photos/1848797.htmlData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Leveraging the Networks 74% - Will use Networks to Research and Find DealsData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • 64% 31% 3% 2%Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Travel Expectations in 2015 Up Down• No. of domestic nights 31% 27%• No. of international nights 42% 23%• Hotel Budgets 40% 32%Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Air Travel 2015http://www.theage.com.au/ffximage/2007/10/15/SingaporeA380_wideweb__470x312,0.jpg
  • Air Travel in 2015• 65% expect costs to rise on domestic and international flights Up Down• Personal domestic flights 29% 28%• Personal international flights 39% 24%• Travel Budgets 44% 32%Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • New Business Models85% - In-Flight / In-Room66% - Experience Lounges53% - Testing Vacations67% - Monetize Clients http://www.climatechangefraud.com/content/blogcategory/15/224/7/14/Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Under 100 US Airports by 2015? 38% http://www.visitingdc.com/images/jfk-airport-address.jpgData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Airports only in Major Euro Cities 40% http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/aircraft-pictures/T5large.jpgData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Low Cost Carriers 62% - Half will Collapse 49% - Massive Growth http://airlinewallpapers.com/gallery/albums/GermanWings/GermanwingsA319.pngData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • New Business Models / New Airlines 62% http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/63/Lufthansa-1.jpgData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Preference for Rail over Air 66% - Europe 18% - USA http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2005/1907769952_82c4b8d1fb_o.jpgData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Innovations will Continue to Emerge – e.g. Jumbo Hostel, Sweden http://www.jumbohostel.com/DynPage.aspx?id=64673&mn1=5293&mn2=5302
  • Mobile Hotels - Movil http://www.ohgizmo.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/09/hotel_movil.jpg
  • Rig Hotelshttp://www.gizmag.com/from-oilrig-to-luxury-eco-resort-11156/11156/picture/70690/
  • Hello Hypersonic? 48%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future ofTravel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009 www.mondolithic.com
  • $20,000 Commercial Spaceflight? 29%Image source: Virgin GalacticData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Space Hotels? 18% http://www.bornrich.org/images/space-hotel_18.jpgData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Airship Hotels 30% Source: AeroscraftData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Augmented Reality 69% http://www.theapplecollection.com/design/pcproto/images/segavr.jpgData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • 23% www.mondolithic.comData Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Environmenthttp://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/06/16/PH2008061601786.jpg
  • Don’t Make What you Don’t NeedFrom requirement analysis through contract negotiation to implementation anddemobilization in months Source: Siemens Industrial Solutions & Services - Airport Logistics
  • Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • Environmental Control• Hotels and venues that do not have a zero environmental 23% footprint (waste, energy use, emissions) will be out of business• Offsetting of emissions will be mandatory for all airlines 77%• Passengers will face personal carbon limits that dramatically restrict the number of flights they can take 25%• Business people will need to apply for permits to fly, proving the business benefit outweighs environmental impact 18%Data Source: Fast Future Survey on the Future of Travel, Marketing and Events February - March 2009
  • What does the timeline ofdevelopments look like for your key markets?
  • Travel 2015 - Conclusions• Demand will hold up• Airline profitability is critical• New business models will evolve• Sustainability still on the agenda http://dubaiworld.files.wordpress.com/2007/06/dubailand-wheel.jpg
  • If you would like to take part in our study on the future of meetings and travel, sign up to ournewsletter or receive the research studies mentioned please email research@fastfuture.com