Rohit Talwar - Facing the Future - Kennedys Partners Retreat - December 2nd 2011

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Rohit Talwar's presentation 'Facing the Future', given to Kennedys Partners Retreat, 2nd December 2011.

Rohit Talwar's presentation 'Facing the Future', given to Kennedys Partners Retreat, 2nd December 2011.

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  • 1. Facing the Future Kennedys Partners Retreat December 2nd 2011 Rohit Talwar CEO - Fast Future Researchwww.fastfuture.com rohit@fastfuture.com Twitter @fastfuture
  • 2. ContentsPresentation p3About Fast Future p 50Image Sources p 58
  • 3. Driving Future GrowthMacro Business / GrowthTrends IT Trends Markets
  • 4. Organisations Need to Work on 3 Horizons in Parallel1-12 Months 1-3 Years 3-10 YearsOperational Drive for CreatingExcellence Growth the Future
  • 5. Growth is not Guaranteed…
  • 6. …Thinking is Back in Fashion
  • 7. Transformational Change? It’s Only Just Begun
  • 8. The World in 2020
  • 9. Demographic Destinies 2 billion more people in 40 years –Demographics is Driving Economics 448 739 691 5231 344 1998 4157 729 1030 585 2010 2050 Source : United Nations
  • 10. Life Redefined – Lifespans are IncreasingUnder 50’s have 90%chance of living to 100.Aubrey de Grey suggestswe could live to 500 or 1000What are the health,housing, consumption andresource implications?What kind of opportunitieswill be created?
  • 11. BCG’S 2011 Global Challengers and Emeriti: Origin Countries35 333025 202015 1410 8 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 Source: Boston Consulting Group, January 2011
  • 12. Service is the ‘Killer App’
  • 13. Tackling Complexity• Process• Organisation• Information / Systems• Regulatory• Human
  • 14. Complex Systems
  • 15. Chaordic Systems
  • 16. Mess
  • 17. Think Like the Customer e.g. Open Innovation
  • 18. New Business Thinkinge.g. Ultra-Quick Construction
  • 19. New Business Models - Auctions £3088 £8791.50 £81
  • 20. Access vs. Ownership
  • 21. TMT – Convergence and ImmersionTelephony Connectivity• Voice • Cellular• Messaging • Up to 14 bands• SIM card • WLAN/BT• Phonebook • GPS• Ring Tones • NFC• Security • FMData/ MultimediaEnterprise • Camera 8-16M • Camcorder• 100Mbps • 24M Color Display• Email • Memory (160GB)• IMS • Multiformat A/V• Browsing • HD Video/TV out• VPN • Games• PIM• Ecommerce Software (50-100M Tps) • Protocols • DRM• Payments • Middleware • Applications • User Interface • Minimize fragmentation
  • 22. Next Generation Interfaces
  • 23. Haptics / Holograms / Interactive Surfaces
  • 24. Focus on Growth Industries
  • 25. Rising Infrastructure Spending• CIBC projects up to $35 trillion in public works by 2030 (1)• Annual spend: – North America $180Bn – Europe $205Bn – Asia $400Bn – Africa $10BnGreen Buildings - $600Bn by 2015
  • 26. Airport Expansion by 2020 China from ~150 to 244 India from ~100 to 150
  • 27. Opening Up Education
  • 28. Green Transport Revolution
  • 29. Reinventing Retail
  • 30. Smart Grid - $500Bn+
  • 31. Industrial Biotech - $650Bn+ by 2020 Source: Economist, June 2010
  • 32. NBIC Convergence
  • 33. Extending the Experience
  • 34. The Slide@T3Changi Airport - Singapore
  • 35. Virtual Grocery Shopping – Tesco South Korea
  • 36. Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation
  • 37. 3D Printing $1Tn+
  • 38. What Client Strategies are Emerging?
  • 39. Where are the Opportunities?• Networks• Development• Innovation• Business Models
  • 40. How can Leaders Respond?
  • 41. Lead or Follow?
  • 42. Make Time and Space for Change
  • 43. Be Sticky and Magnetic
  • 44. Create Tolerance of Uncertainty Encourage Experimentation
  • 45. Broad Scans and Deep Dives
  • 46. Embrace Networks and Associations
  • 47. Encourage Curiosity
  • 48. Conclusions – Winners• Forward Looking• Experimental• Tolerant of Uncertainty
  • 49. About Fast Future
  • 50. Fast Future – Core Services• Live Events - Speeches, briefings and workshops for executive management and boards of governments, investment funds, development agencies , companies, airlines, airports, hotels, venues, CVB’s and associations• Future Insights - Customised research on emerging trends, future scenarios, technologies and new markets• Immersion - ‘Deep dives’ on future trends, market developments, emerging issues and technology advances• Strategy - Development of strategies and business plans• Innovation - Creation of business models and innovation plans• Engagement - Consultancy and workshop facilitation
  • 51. Fast Future• Research, consulting, speaking, leadership• 5-20 year horizon - focus on ideas, developments, people, trends and forces shaping the future• Clients – ING, ABN Amro, Laing O’Rourke – Marks and Spencer – Airports - Aeroports de Paris / Schiphol Group – Vancouver Airport Services – Industry Associations – ICCA, ASAE, PCMA, MPI – Corporates - GE, Nokia, Pepsi, IBM, Intel, Orange, O2, Siemens, Samsung, GSK, SAPE&Y, KPMG, Amadeus, Sabre, Travelport, Travelex, ING, Santander, Barclays, Citibank, DeutscheBank – Governments - Dubai, Finland, Nigeria, Singapore, UK, US – Convention Bureaus – Seoul, Sydney, London, San Francisco, Toronto, Abu Dhabi, Durban, Athens, Slovenia, Copenhagen – Convention Centres – Melbourne, Adelaide, Qatar, QEIICC – Hotels - Accor Group, Preferred, – Intercontinental – PCO’s - Congrex, Kenes
  • 52. Rohit Talwar• Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic innovation – addressing leadership audiences in 40 countries on 5 continents• Author of Designing Your Future• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top 10 Global Future Thinkers• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications, technology, pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism, environment, food and government sectors• Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De Beers, DHL, EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai, IBM, ING, Intel, KPMG, M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis, OECD, Orange, Panasonic, Pfizer, PwC, Samsung, Shell, Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous international associations and governments agencies in the US, UK, Finland, Dubai, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.• To receive Fast Future’s newsletters please email rohit@fastfuture.com
  • 53. Designing Your Future Key Trends, Challenges and Choices• 50 key trends• 100 emerging trends• 10 major patterns of change• Key challenges and choices for leaders• Strategic decision making framework• Scenarios for 2012• Key futures tools and techniques• Published August 2008• Price £49.95 / €54.95/ $69.95• Email invoice request to rohit@fastfuture.com
  • 54. Our Services Bespoke research; Identification & Analysis of Future Trends, Drivers & Shocks Public Speaking, In- Company Briefings, Accelerated Scenario Seminars and Planning, Timelining & Workshops Future MappingPersonal Futuring forLeaders and Leadership Expert Consultations &Teams Futures Think Tanks Identification of Design & Facilitation of Opportunities for Innovation, Incubation Innovation and Strategic & Venturing Strategy Creation & Investment Programmes Development of Implementation Roadmaps
  • 55. Example Projects• Public and private client research e.g. : – Development of Market Scenarios, emerging trends and strategies for key clients – Government and OECD Scenario Projects – e.g. Migration 2030, Future of Narcotics, Chemical Sector, Family 2030 – Scenarios for the global economy for 2030 and the implications for migration – Designing Your Future (Published August 2008) – book written for the American Society of Association Executives & The Center for Association Leadership – Global Economies – e.g. The Future of China – the Path to 2020 – The Shape of Jobs to Come – Emerging Science and Technology Sectors and Careers – Winning in India and China – The Future of Human Resources – Exploiting the Future Potential of Social Media in UK Small to Medium Enterprises – Convention 2020 – the Future of Business Events – Future Convention Cities Initiative – Maximising Long-term Economic Impact of Events – One Step Beyond – Future trends and challenges for the events industry – Hotels 2020: Beyond Segmentation – Future Hotel Strategies – The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East – a Vision to 2020 – Future of Travel and Tourism Investment in Saudi Arabia – Aviation and Airports e.g. Aviation 2030
  • 56. Example Clients
  • 57. Image Sources p1Page1. http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01016/BUSH-BINOCULARS_1016553i.jpg3. http://www.wadefinancial.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/5-Big-Questions.jpg4. Left to Right http://www.guy-sports.com/fun_pictures/truck_art_pepsis_lg.jpg http://www.automotive-insight.net/aston-martin-cars/pics/aston%20martin.jpg http://www.kgwings.com/hawkeye/hawkeye05.jpg5. http://www.piperreport.com/archives/Images/Medicare%20PFFS%20Plans.jpg6. http://www.einstein.yu.edu/iphs/images/think_tank.jpg7. http://creativeclass.typepad.com/thecreativityexchange/images/2007/12/01/global.jpg8. Clockwise http://www.etftrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/1_fullsize.jpg http://blog.engglib2.upd.edu.ph/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/newsweek4.jpg http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4b3799e6-5e04-11df-8153-00144feab49a.html#axzz1LCUOTVNv http://batonrouge.myhomecareblog.com/files/2011/07/active_seniors4.jpg http://www.imperial-consultants.co.uk/files/biopharmaceuticals.jpg http://www.nanotechnologyinvesting.us/images/nanotechnology-480.jpg http://cdn.lightgalleries.net/4bd5ec0d18599/images/Cocoon_05-2.jpg http://takemetoyourleader.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/010101.jpg http://www.lostateminor.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/vertical_farming_1.jpg12. http://www.tensator.com/blog/post/2011/01/31/London-Luton-Airport-Introduces-Two-New-Staff-Members-Holly-and- Graham.aspx13. http://freshpeel.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/Future_of_Work.jpg14. http://encefalus.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/complexity.gif15. http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2292/2338002596_4c08dc0b07.jpg
  • 58. Image Sources p216. http://www.petervaldivia.com/technology/networks/image/internet-world.jpg17. http://howardlindzon.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/global-financial-system2.jpg19. http://images.gizmag.com/gallery_lrg/arkhotelchangsha.png21. http://www.greensharecar.com.au/22. http://www.reghardware.com/2010/08/11/video_rim_blackberry_torch_9800/23. Clockwise http://www.dexigner.com/news/22673 http://www.livetradingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/hp_3d_laptop.jpg http://blog.core-ed.net/derekarchives/NokiaFanPhone.jpg24. Left to Right http://www.tuvie.com/wp-content/uploads/your-life-in-2020-frog-design1.jpg http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_LYLNQSJkOcM/TMOyFH7Hv3I/AAAAAAAAACE/ISxznCcG6gw/s1600/SkinputImg1.jpg http://www.flickr.com/photos/lukedebruijn/3991431571/25. Left to Right http://teamaltman.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/industry-and-data.jpg http://picturesofcar.blogspot.com/2009/07/future-concept-car-pictures.html http://www.technologylodging.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/food-biotechnology.jpg26. http://www.ljlindhurst.com/images/highway.jpg27. http://www.surfersvillage.com/gal/pictures/1215airplanes.jpg28. http://www.patelsmith.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/village-classroom-1.jpg29. Left to Right http://www.topcarpictures.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/2009-brabus-tesla-roadster.jpg http://solar.calfinder.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/electric-car-station.jpg30. http:///karmatrendz.wordpress.com/2009/03/29/michelin-amazing-retail-store-interior-by-eventscape
  • 59. Image Sources p331. http://smartgrid.epri.com/App_Themes/Default/Images/smart_grid_network_image.gif32. http://www.celsias.com/media/uploads/admin/biofuel_1.jpg33. http://hplusmagazine.com/sites/default/files/images/articles/jan10/nano-info1.jpg34, Left to Right http://www.instablogsimages.com/images/2007/10/09/design-concept-of-vertical-farming_5810.jpg http://www.globalairportcities.com/images/stories/news2011/September/6dcinema.jpg35. http://www.fastcodesign.com/1662241/wheeeeeee-slides-made-for-adults-in-dire-need-of-fun-video36. http://trendshq.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/South-Korea-Virtual-Supermarket-on-Subway.jpg37. Left to Right http://protomag.com/statics/SU_06_jgrow_rtms_3697_a_sq.jpg http://www.shockmd.com/wp-content/tms12.jpg38. Left to Right http://www.psfk.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/pic-rapid-prototyping-and-jewelry.png http://www.fastcompany.com/1781551/prototype-of-worlds-first-3-d-printed-car-unveiled http://www.treehugger.com/files/2010/10/on-demand-3d-printing-cut-waste-increase-efficiency.php39. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_9SlYS77Pdxg/SeqgR0hQBMI/AAAAAAAACDk/PLTRR4KWo-o/s400/entrepreneur2.gif40. http://www.visualphotos.com/photo/2x4524045/businesswoman_on_ladder_looking_through_binoculars_bld005521.jpg42. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/- EJhAZaiyA8E/TfRRHfKzDMI/AAAAAAAAAGo/JmTQLz1z0xc/s320/6a00d8341c65c453ef010536d4981b970c-800wi.jpg43. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/bigphotos/images/090305-daylight-saving-time-facts-history_big.jpg44. http://www.ripleys.com/assets/img/upload/bions/magnet_man.jpg45. Left to Right http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_MuWNJtJ8XS4/RwrvXTT4e4I/AAAAAAAABJc/pMnDJx06ZQA/s400/DuaneMichels.Uncertainty88.j pg http://embunpagi2009.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/seedling1.jpg
  • 60. Image Sources p446. Left to Right http://www.codeproject.com/KB/grid/DrawingRadarDisplayWithCS/Radar1.jpg http://www.realmscuba.com/Logos/Dive%20Course/group%20underwater.jpg47. Outside In http://www.masternewmedia.org/images/social_network_id469214_size440.jpg http://i36.tinypic.com/vrxzll.jpg48. http://www.insidefurniture.com/.a/6a00d834519a9e69e2010536a3c860970b-800wi49. http://www.oytun.co.uk/wp-content/themes/mimbo2/images//innovation.jpg