Rohit Talwar Drivers of Disruption and Opportunity - LBS Enterprise 100 - July 3rd 2014

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Presentation to the investment community at London Business School exploring key trends, developments and ideas shaping and disrupting the business landscape and the resulting investment opportunities that could emerge and the implications for investors. The talk covers:

- The evolution of technologies in business and the workplace
- How advances such as artificial intelligence, robotics, 3D / 4D printing, smart materials, immersive technologies and the multi-sensory internet could disrupt key business sectors
- Science and technology developments that could enhance the brain , body and human wellbeing and transform healthcare
- New business models that will change the way we finance assets and infrastructure, fund innovation and charge for goods and services
- How to spot and align with disruptive developments and decide when to invest.

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Rohit Talwar Drivers of Disruption and Opportunity - LBS Enterprise 100 - July 3rd 2014

  1. 1. Drivers of Future Disruption and the Emerging Investment Opportunities Rohit Talwar - CEO – Fast Future Research London Business School Enterprise 100 London – July 3rd 2014 rohit@fastfuture.com www.fastfuture.com
  2. 2. Contents • Presentation p. 4 • About Fast Future p. 42 • Image Sources p. 56
  3. 3. What we do  Foresight Research Helping you explore and understand the roadmap of economic, business, scientific, technological, social, political and environmental trends, forces, developments and ideas shaping the future of the sector  Consulting Helping you create future strategies, business models and innovations to help respond to and create disruptive change  Speaking and Moderating Delivering keynote speeches offering inspiring insights into a changing world and how others are responding to the future  Future Leadership Programs and Events Designing high impact leadership development programs, workshops and events that encourage new thinking, bring the future to life and enable you to develop an action agenda  Business Design and Innovation Facilitating development of innovative, future proofed designs for products, services, processes and customer experiences
  4. 4. Can we Change our DNA? Play by the Rules of the Game Create a New Game
  5. 5. ‘Future Proofed’ Organisations Work on 3 Horizons in Parallel 4-10+ Years Creating the Future 1-3 Years Search for Growth 1-12 Months Operational Excellence
  6. 6. Future Strategic Challenges
  7. 7. Economic and Political Uncertainty and Turbulence are the ‘New Normal’
  8. 8. Continued Global Shifts Of Influence, Wealth and Power to Emerging Markets
  9. 9. Growing Cities – New Rules
  10. 10. Infrastructure : a Major Growth Market to 2030? Funding is the Biggest Barrier
  11. 11. Intense Competition Strategy, ICT, Insight, Ideas, Responsiveness, Innovation, Financing, Structure, Business Models, New Entrants and Talent
  12. 12. Disruptive Innovation is the Holy Grail
  13. 13. Socio-Demographic Shifts are Reshaping Society Free education is a game changer
  14. 14. Risk and Sustainability Issues Will Play a Bigger Role in Decision Making
  15. 15. Robots are Entering the Workforce
  16. 16. Embracing the Transformative Role of IT Customer Centric ‘Hive Mind’ Talent: Develop and Leverage Staff Innovate to Differentiate Re-engineer Processes
  17. 17. Technology Timeline
  18. 18. Our Technologies are Evolving From the Desktop...
  19. 19. ...to Portable and Mobile ...
  20. 20. ...to Wearable...
  21. 21. ...to Embedded...
  22. 22. …and totally Connected via ‘The Internet of Everything’ “What happens when the smartest thing in the room is the room itself?” Madeleine Albright
  23. 23. An Immersive Multi-Sensory Internet is Emerging
  24. 24. Speech / gesture / image recognition, integrated analytics, knowledge management, image / video / voice mining, client self-service, intelligent documents, expertise systems, collaboration, secure email, virtual assistants, intelligent agents and collective intelligence AI is Here
  25. 25. ‘Magic’ and Science are Blurring Mapping and Uploading the Human Brain Cognitive, Genetic, Physical and Electronic Enhancement of the Human Body The biological era is emerging
  26. 26. Science is Creating New Sectors
  27. 27. Future Growth Markets?
  28. 28. Picking Investment Strategies
  29. 29. Virtual Collaboration Novel and Adaptive Thinking Social Intelligence Trans Disciplinarity New Media Literacy Computational Thinking Design MindsetCross Cultural Competency Sense MakingCognitive Load Management
  30. 30. New Organization and Collaboration Models
  31. 31. Barbarians at the Gate
  32. 32. New Ideas Reshaping Industries
  33. 33. Rapid Execution e.g. Superfast Construction Ark Hotel - Dongting Lake - China
  34. 34. New Paradigms Challenging Old Orthodoxies e.g. Hyperloop
  35. 35. Assets: ‘Usership’ vs. Ownership
  36. 36. Innovation: e.g. Kickstarter.com
  37. 37. Alternative Revenue Models E.g. Auctions $5190 (£3088) $14,770 (£8791.50) $136 (£81)
  38. 38. Mindset - 3 Horizon Thinking • 12 Months • 1-3 Years • 4-10 Years
  39. 39. Management - Tackling Complexity • Customer Interface • Process • Organisation • Information / Systems • Regulatory • Human
  40. 40. …or be Consumed by them Conclusion - Step into Our Fears…
  41. 41. About Fast Future
  42. 42. • 50 key trends • 100 emerging trends • 10 major patterns of change • Key challenges and choices for leaders • Strategic decision making framework • Future Scenarios • Key futures tools and techniques Designing Your Future - Key Trends, Challenges and Choices
  43. 43. Reinventing the Airport Ecosystem • Drivers of change • Science and technology advances • Customer expectations • Innovation priorities • Strategies and business models • Surveys to test ideas and scenarios on a global audience • Models for managing tomorrows airport ecosystem • http://www.amadeus.com/airlineit/resour ces/reinventing_the_airport_ecosystem/i ndex.html?OADS=78
  44. 44. ILTA Legal Technology Future Horizons Project • Key business and legal trends and forces • Timeline of emerging technologies and IT developments with high potential legal impact • Explores IT’s transformative role in future legal business models and service differentiation • Defines strategic business and IT imperatives • 6 sponsors - combined desk research, interviews with managing partners, CIO’s, vendors, futurists and technologists, global surveys on the business applications of IT and emerging technologies • http://www.iltanet.org/Downloads/LTFH-Report.pdf • 200 emerging technology developments http://www.iltanet.org/Downloads/TechTimelineAppendixLTFH.pdf
  45. 45. Futurium - Science and Technology Transformations Shaping the World of 2050 • European Commission project • Examined 87 potential developments and trends • Clustered into 11 overarching future societal themes • Content identified through a combination of crowdsourcing via the Futurium web platform, suggestions from the EC, and ideas proposed by our team • http://ec.europa.eu/digital- agenda/futurium/ Futurium
  46. 46. ACCA / IMA – 100 Drivers of Change • Identifies 100 drivers of change impacting business and the accounting profession • Outlines future scenarios for the accounting function • Highlights strategic imperatives for business and the accounting function • ‘5 minutes on’ executive summary • Report: www.accaglobal.co.uk/en/research- insights/accountancy-futures/drivers- change.html
  47. 47. Hotels 2020 • Identifying key drivers of change for the globally branded hotel sector over the next decade • Examining the implications for:  Hotel strategy  Brand portfolio  Business models  Customer targeting  Innovation  http://www.amadeus.com/hotelit/ beyond-segmentation.html
  48. 48. • Global strategic foresight study to help the meetings industry prepare for the decade ahead - Industry-wide sponsors • Future strategies for venues, destinations and agencies Convention 2020
  49. 49. Fast Future Clients Technology, Media and Telecoms 3M BT Cable & Wireless Chloride CIO Connect Etisalat Gartner GE Hibu / Yell / Yellow Pages Hyland Software IBM Intel Microsoft Nokia O2 Orange (EE) Panasonic RIM (Blackberry) Samsung SAP Siemens The BBC T-Mobile twofour54 Vodafone Banking and Financial Services ABN AMRO Actis Alliance & Leicester American Express AXA Chartis Citibank DeutscheBank HSBC ING Group Invesco Investcorp Morgan Stanley Nomura Royal Bank of Scotland Santander Standard Life Professional Services ACCA (Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) Berwin Leighton Paisner Crowe Horwath Deloitte Ernst & Young ILTA (International Legal Technology Association) JLT Group Kennedys KPMG Linklaters Moore Stephens Mott MacDonald Norton Rose Fulbright PwC RSM Tenon Simmons and Simmons Wragge Lawrence Graham & Co Food, Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Associated British Foods Astra Zeneca Bayer Boehringer Ingelheim Cargill Food Service Network Europe GlaxoSmithKline NHS London NHS West Midlands Novartis Pepsi Pfizer Sara Lee United Biscuits Government and Intergovernmental Defra – Department for Environmental, Food and Rural Affairs DG Connect, European Commission DTCM - Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing Dubai Chamber of Commerce Government of Finland Government of Singapore Ministry of Defence (UK) OECD (Organisation for Economic Co- operation and Development) Office of Science and Technology (UK) Saudi Government Singapore National Horizon Scanning Centre
  50. 50. Fast Future Clients UK BIS – Department for Business, Innovation and Skills UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office UK Health Modernisation Agency UK Home Office US Department of Defense Aviation, Travel, Tourism, Hotels, Events Industry Accor ACI (Airport Council International) Aerovista Air Plus Airport Revenue News AMAC Amadeus American Express Business Travel ASAE (Center for Association Leadership) ATAG (Air Transport Action Group) BAE Systems Boeing CANSO (Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation) Center Parcs CTW (Corporate Travel World) EADS / Airbus Emirates FCm Travel Future Travel Experience Europe / Asia / Global Global Airport Development Hurel Hispano ICCA (International Congress and Convention Association) IMEX Intercontinental Hotels IT&CMA (Incentive Travel & Conventions, Meetings) ITB (International Tourism Bourse) MPI (Meeting Professionals International) PATA (Pacific Asia Travel Association) Preferred Hotels Qatar Airways Qatar Airways Sabre TFWA (Tax Free World Association) Travelex Travelodge Travelport TTRA (Travel and Tourism Research Association) World Travel Forum Christchurch Airport Edmonton Airport Mumbai Airport Paris Airport Schiphol Airport, Vancouver Airport Wellington Airport Denver Airport Dubai Airport Adelaide Convention Centre Melbourne Convention Centre QEII Convention Centre Qatar Convention Centre Vancouver Convention Centre Abu Dhabi Convention Bureau Athens Convention Bureau Durban Convention Bureau London Convention Bureau San Francisco Convention Bureau Seoul Convention Bureau Sydney Convention Bureau Toronto Convention Bureau Norway Convention Bureau Commercial and Industrial ACE (Association for Consultancy and Engineering) Ball Corp. BAT California Workforce Association Danaher Corporation DHL Diamond Trading Corporation (De Beers) EdF Electrolux Fitflop Hoover Hyundai IBTTA (International Bridge Tunnel and Turnpike Association) Jardines Laing O’Rourke MAP (Management Association of Pakistan) Marks and Spencer Nakheel Philip Morris Playtex Shell Tata Thames Water Whirlpool
  51. 51. Rohit Talwar • Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research. • Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic innovation – addressing leadership audiences in 40 countries on 5 continents • Author of Designing Your Future • Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top 10 Global Future Thinkers • Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications, technology, pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism, environment, food and government sectors • Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De Beers, DHL, EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai, IBM, ING, Intel, KPMG, M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis, OECD, Orange, Panasonic, Pfizer, PwC, Samsung, Shell, Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous international associations and governments agencies in the US, UK, Finland, Dubai, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Singapore. • To receive Fast Future’s newsletters please email rohit@fastfuture.com
  52. 52. Videos of Rohit Exploring the Future  The World in 2025 - Driving Forces, Global Challenges and Potential Disruptions (35 mins) http://vimeo.com/93302584  Anticipating 2025 - Driving forces, global challenges and potential disruptions (30 mins): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwcLQCIfxpY  A World in Transition (60 mins): http://www.colliers.com/en-gb/uk/insights/multimedia  Future of Travel (22 mins) http://www.travelmole.tv/watch_vdo.php?id=14300  Parallel Revolutions Impacting Global Labor: Bloomberg TV Interview (4 mins): http://www.bloomberg.com/video/parallel-revolutions-impacting- global-labor-talway-T0tJZRX6TpGIxjKShTzv~w.html
  53. 53. Useful Sources • Genetic profiling - https://www.23andme.com/ • X Prize - Breakthrough innovation projects - http://www.xprize.org/ • Google brain uploading - http://digitaljournal.com/article/352787 • Brain mapping projects - http://www.technologyreview.com/news/513011/why-obamas-brain-mapping-project-matters/ • Global Future 2045 (immortality) http://2045.com/ • Human enhancement - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_enhancement • Wearable technology – Google Project Glass - http://www.google.com/glass/start/ • Emotiv Epoc Brain-Computer Interface - http://www.emotiv.com/ • AI Essay Grading Software - http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/05/science/new-test-for-computers-grading-essays-at-college- level.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 • Digital / Crypto currencies – – http://www.abc.net.au/technology/articles/2013/09/25/3855973.htm – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cryptocurrencies • Autonomous cars - – http://www.engineering.com/DesignerEdge/DesignerEdgeArticles/ArticleID/6357/Tesla-Working-on-Autonomous-Car.aspx – http://www.popsci.com/cars/article/2013-09/google-self-driving-car
  54. 54. Contact Information Email rohit@fastfuture.com Phone +44 (0)7973 405145 Web http://www.fastfuture.com Twitter http://twitter.com/fastfuture Blog http://widerhorizons.wordpress.com LinkedIn http://www.linkedin.com/in/talwar Past presentations http://www.slideshare.net/fastrohit Newsletter signup http://fastfuture.com/?page_id=13 Our current charitable campaigns: Charlotte Talwar's fundraising project to build a new toilet block for Sunrise School Ghana http://www.gofundme.com/7gaxho Street Kids International - Helping Street-Active Youth In Ghana Start Businesses https://www.globalgiving.co.uk/projects/help-street-active-youth-in-ghana-start-businesses
  55. 55. Image Sources
  56. 56. Image Sources p. 1 Page: 1. Left, right: http://etherealisation.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/band-of-brothers-269x300.jpg http://www.ridelust.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/green_car.jpg https://static.squarespace.com/static/4ff36a2b84aecc34311d0e6c/523b0fcce4b099ee151514e7/523b0fcde4b099ee151517f8/1359054127028/1000w/faceless.png 3. http://lifecoachonthego.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Woman-Ladder-Binoculars-300x200.jpg 4. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-EJhAZaiyA8E/TfRRHfKzDMI/AAAAAAAAAGo/JmTQLz1z0xc/s320/6a00d8341c65c453ef010536d4981b970c-800wi.jpg 5. Left, right: http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-72BxV124lUA/UFvsRsDW46I/AAAAAAAADMQ/cTdnJRp9lVo/s1600/DIA.Gensler.PerspectiveHotelTrainStation.jpg http://www.kgwings.com/hawkeye/hawkeye05.jpg 6. http://www.energyenhancement.org/hercules.jpg 7. Left, right: http://img.timeinc.net/time/magazine/archive/covers/2009/1101091207_400.jpg http://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/bitcoin.png%3Fw%3D640 8. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/61/Map_of_emerging_markets.JPG 9. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Y_VW1n5Z54A/TBf0sjq-etI/AAAAAAAACXM/J_wOQ9kRtug/s1600/MEGACITIES_2310.gif 10. http://infrastructureintel.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/infrastructurespending20301.png 11. http://www.geekbinge.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/GoT-4.3-Thenns-620x330.jpg 12. http://www.instablogsimages.com/1/2011/10/03/bmw_autonomous_car_dtcci.jpg 13. Left, right: http://inclusionparadox.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/Multi-generational_Latino.jpg http://discoverwebsbest.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/khan-academy.jpg
  57. 57. Image Sources p.2 14. http://www.wallpaperex.com/wallpapers/green_environmental_issues_mac_wallpapers_hd_634101_jpeg-wide.jpg 15. Left, right: http://images.techtimes.com/data/images/full/8770/pepper.jpg?w=600 http://cdn.visualnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/robot-restaurant-56-600x370.jpg http://res.img.ifeng.com/2012/0625/wm_5576a382827c4d8515157b8c52200644.jpg 16. http://www.careercapitalist.com/.a/6a00d8345275cf69e201a3fca52fe1970b-450wi 17. Clockwise: http://media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/fe/1a/f4/fe1af47f31e8002cc988b913944d90b2.jpg http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--rMZwgTy7--/18kxdi8an8yyzjpg.jpg http://legalfutures.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/litigation_process_flow_re-engineering1.jpg http://images.sciencedaily.com/2009/07/090727140349-large.jpg 19. http://wp.streetwise.co/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/10_DesktopComputer.jpeg 20. Clockwise: http://quietfurybooks.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/original-cell-phone.jpg http://blogs.cio.com/sites/cio.com/files/u7727/Smartphones.jpg http://images.thenews.com.pk/updates_pics/apple-unviels-ipad-air_10-22-2013_123439_l.jpg 21. Clockwise: http://cdn2.ubergizmo.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Google_Glass_features_in_flux.jpeg http://cdn-static.cnet.co.uk/i/c/blg/cat/mobiles/samsung-gear-myvouchercodes.jpeg http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-StC2ZrWjsfE/T-PV9BO5xsI/AAAAAAAACII/8-DlVgXSrUY/s1600/fuelband3.jpg 23. http://smartdesignworldwide.com/thinking/wp-content/uploads/internetofthings_480x324_final.jpg 24. http://www.telecom-cloud.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Immersive-Media-Paradigm.jpg 25. http://overthemoonscifi.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/brain-mind.jpeg
  58. 58. Image Sources p.3 26. Top, bottom: http://www.newsyaps.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/digital-brain.jpg http://www.pakalertpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Transhuman-Symbolism-in-Prometheus.png 27. Clockwise: http://assets.dornob.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/growing-livign-tree-house-design.jpg http://www.printedelectronicsworld.com/images/v5/articles/820x615/main3149.jpg http://www.rumormillnews.com/pix5/nbic8.jpg http://crnano.org/srg-iii-pov-animation2.gif http://www.midwich.com/common/userfiles/midwich/cube-cubeX.png 28. http://static.dnaindia.com/sites/default/files/1838804.jpg 30. http://www.iftf.org/uploads/media/IFTF_FutureWorkSkillsSummary_01.gif 31. http://www.svet.rs/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/roboti.jpg 32. http://www.daz3d.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136e95/f/r/frost-giants-8.jpg 33. http://blog.ocad.ca/wordpress/envr4c03-fw2011-01/files/2011/09/vertical-farm-seatle-01.jpg 34. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2083883/Ark-Hotel-construction-Chinese-built-30-storey-hotel-scratch-15-days.html 35. http://s3files.core77.com/blog/images/2013/05/high-speed-tube-01.jpg 36. Left, right: http://3008docklands.com.au/article/neighbourhood/1490 http://www.answers.com/topic/cloud-computing 37. Top, bottom: http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/828858/kickstarter-project-goal-800.jpeg http://www.theverge.com/2011/12/20/2644358/kickstarter-success-product-development-revolution
  59. 59. Image Sources p. 4 39. http://www.visualphotos.com/photo/2x4524045/businesswoman_on_ladder_looking_through_binoculars_bld005521.jpg 40. http://infolific.com/images/fun/metaphor-for-complexity.gif 41. http://img4.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20120605015933/gameofthrones/images/thumb/c/c7/White_Walker_2x10.jpg/500px-White_Walker_2x10.jpg

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