Travel 2030 –   Reinventing thePassenger Experience Expanded Slide Set     Vancouver, BC   September 8th 2011        Rohit...
ContentsPresentation               p3About Fast Future          p 91Background Notes           p 103Image Sources         ...
MacroDrivers
The World in 2030
How do we get there from Here? Customer Research &     New  Insight Innovation   Business                        Models
Growth is not Guaranteed…
…Thinking is Back in Fashion
Transformational Change?   It’s Only Just Begun
10 Key Patterns of Change Shaping the Next Decade      Economic turbulence, a shift in wealth from west to east and politi...
Aviation Outlook
Airport Expansion by 2020                    China from ~150 to 244                    India from ~100 to 140  Today - US ...
Under 100 US Airports by 2015?
Airports only in Major Euro Cities
Low Cost Carriers64% - Half will Collapse49% - Massive Growth
New Business Models / Airlines
Industry Scenarios                         High      Uncharted                        Paranoid       Territory            ...
Virtual Airlines
Sustainable Green Terminals
Fast Build, Flexible and Temporary Terminals
Redistribution of Aviation       Profit Pools
Embracing Open Innovation    Airport Living Lab
FutureCustomers
Demographic Destinies 2 billion more people in 40 years –Demographics is Driving Economics         448    739 691         ...
Life Redefined –        Lifespans are IncreasingUnder 50’s have 90%chance of living to 100.Aubrey de Grey suggestswe could...
Tomorrow’s Traveler - Demographics• Over 60‘s in developed  economies to rise from 22-  33% from 2009 and 2050.• In develo...
Tomorrow’s Traveler –              Spending Patterns• By 2020, Asian consumers  could account for over 40%  of global midd...
Traveller Mindsets   Too Busy To Care   Complex Lives, Pressurised    Finances   Craving Simplicity   Wealthy and Hard...
Buying Behaviour• Mobile• Low loyalty• Multiple searches and  site visits• Word of mouth critical• Value conscious –  pric...
Traveler motivations will become increasingly fragmented and diverse    and harder to segment into clearly definable custo...
I will book the bulk of my travel             online in 2015                       74% - Will use Social 64%              ...
Technology Horizons
Tomorrow’s Traveler – Technology• Number of mobile subscribers  could rise from 4Bn to 5Bn  2009-2015• Mobile data traffic...
TINA – The Intelligent Airport
Cloud Computing
TMT – Convergence and ImmersionTelephony                                     Connectivity•   Voice                        ...
Apps – What I Want, When I WantSource: Forrester
Next Generation Smart Phones• Concierge / Schedule  Management• Check in• Notifications / Directions• Route Management• UG...
Personalised Advertising
Holographic Displays
Augmented Reality / Heads Up
AR at Copenhagen Airport
Gesture Interfaces
Touchable Holograms
Interactive Surfaces
Wearable Displays
Ambient Intelligence
Real Time / Predictive Analytics
3D Printing – True Personalization
Rethinking the Airport     Experience
Live the Customer Journeys and Experiences Stimulus / Search / Booking Transport to and from the  Airport Check in to F...
Mapping Customer Journeys & ExperiencesSub process▪ Traffic             ▪ Off airport flight   ▪ Arrival at airport by   ▪...
Airport Arrival
Extended Airport?
Check In
Next Gen Qantas Check-In
Security
Are Biometrics the Answer?
Flight Departure
Minimising Journey Times
Arrivals –Localizing the Experience?
Aircraft Turnaround
Enhancing the Airport    Experience
‘Virtual Assistants’
Catering and Lounge Experiences
Services
The Slide@T3Changi Airport - Singapore
Funding The Future –From Cabin to Cash Register
Multiple Revenue Streams
Leveraging Customer Insight
Integrated Travel Solutions
Best Price Guarantees
Partner Tie-insPullman Bangkok King Power Hotel
In-flight Duty FreeKorean Air - Shop Onboard
Passenger Centric, Context Related    e.g. The Virgin Red Store    Single swipe ‘open tab’
In Terminal / In-Flight Travel Agency
Booking/Boarding Pass Ads / Offers
Daily Social Media Offers e.g. Twitter
Rethinking Airport Retail
Auctions - The $17,739 iPad
Air Sahara/Jetlite
Outsourcing In-flight Duty Free      e.g. BA / Tourvest
So How Can we Respond?
The Journey to 2030• Continuous research• Define change roadmaps –  passenger journeys and  experiences, operations and  t...
Mapping a Path to 2030Strategic Management ImperativesHorizon scanning   Scenario based planning       Anticipation Open p...
Aviation Next – what does the  timeline of developments looklike for the sector in your region?
Deep Dive on Key Trends / Issues
Be Magnetic
Make Time and Space for Change    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/bigphotos/images/090305-daylight-saving-time-fac...
Conclusions• Huge untapped potential• Technology is a key enabler• Encourage innovation and  curiosity• Experiment with bu...
Thank YouRohit TalwarCEOFast Futurerohit@fastfuture.comTel +44 (0)20 8830 0766Mob +44 (0)7973 405145Twitter http://twitter...
About Fast Future                    91
Fast Future –     Aviation and Travel Industry               Services• Live Events - Speeches, briefings and workshops for...
Fast Future•   Research, consulting, speaking, leadership•   5-20 year horizon - focus on ideas, developments,    people, ...
Hotels 2020 – Objectives• Identify key drivers of change  for the globally branded hotel  sector over the next decade• Exa...
Convention 2020•   Global strategic foresight study to help the meetings industry prepare for    the decade ahead - Indust...
Future Convention Cities Initiative•   Members - Cities aiming to be global leaders in delivery of business events•   Focu...
Rohit Talwar•   Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.•   Award winning speaker on future insights and strat...
Designing Your Future           Key Trends, Challenges and Choices• 50 key trends• 100 emerging trends• 10 major patterns ...
Our Services                                      Bespoke research; Identification &                                      ...
Example Projects•   Public and private client research e.g. :     – Development of Market Scenarios, emerging trends and s...
Example Clients
TINA – Key FactsThe network will support:• 1,000 Fixed and 500 Mobile Video Cameras - 10 Gb/s• 500 Displays - 10 Gb/s• 500...
Background  Notes
MacroDrivers
We need to Prepare for       Alternative Scenarios     8-10%                       Suspicious   Love is in                ...
Derivatives –                     Market Value vs. Global GDP               800       760                                 ...
Public debt in 2020 (% of GDP)Source: Deutsche Bank Research ‘Public debt in 2020’ March 2010http://www.dbresearch.com/PRO...
Economic Power Shifts                      The Top 20 in 2025?GDP US$               Source: IMF WEO 2009, PwC ‗the World i...
Reorientation of global markets•   Some 647 million air travelers — more than a quarter of the 2.2 billion passengers    w...
Current spending patterns       •     Reinforcing the appeal of duty free                               Top Asia-Pacific  ...
Future regions of multiple stressSource: Ministry of Defence ‘Strategic Trends Programme, Global Strategic Trends out to 2...
Source: Tourism Futures http://www.tourismfutures.net/insights/demographic
Source: Tourism Futures http://www.tourismfutures.net/insights/demographic
Source: Ministry of Defence ‘Strategic Trends Programme, Global Strategic Trends out to 2040,’ February 2010http://www.mod...
Climate Change
The Climate Change Challenge•    How fast can CO2 emissions be reduced per unit travel?•    How can we move towards conver...
TravelOutlook
Multi speed recovery leading to         many types of tourist•   The global travel and tourism industry will experience a ...
Travel in 2023•   A report by KPMG released in April 2008 ranked transport and tourism as the sectors    least well prepar...
Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009 http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_...
Boom and Burst•   A booming economy and high disposable incomes have fuelled a growth in travel    worldwide. People trave...
Boom and Burst highlights•   Tourists flock to see the ancient shrines and archaeological treasures of Iraq.•   Massive pr...
Divided Disquiet•   A toxic combination of devastating climate change impacts, violent wars over scarce    resources and s...
Divided Disquiet Highlights•   ‗One flight per year‘ policy for major US company encourages executives to cut costs    wit...
Price and Privilege       •     A dramatically high oil price has made travel punitively expensive. Dwindling supplies    ...
Price and Privilege Highlights•   Demonstrators take to streets in cities across the world demanding the ‗right to fly‘.• ...
Carbon Clampdown•   Governments introduce tradable carbon quotas for all households as part bold plans    to tackle climat...
Carbon Clampdown Highlights•   Major travel firm goes bust after massive boycott coordinated by a popular website    over ...
What does this mean?•   Fast Company notes that ‗…the    reality of vacationing in 2023 will    probably be a combination ...
Predictions•   Charles Goddard, Asia Pacific Editorial Director, Economist Intelligence    Unit, speaking at the ALTM Ultr...
Future of Travel and Tourism•   1. Keeping it local. If trends in energy, economy, and environment continue, then    trave...
Future of Travel and Tourism•   3. Destination evolution. This trend is underway, as destination resorts focus on    becom...
FutureCustomers
Changing European Ethnicity
Preference for Rail over Air  66% - Europe    18% - USA
Trends•   Concierge services are set to make a    rise across the mid market travel    sector according to Euromonitor    ...
Simple identity•   The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) plummeted the value of the High Net Worth    population by US $32.8 t...
Simple identity•   So, is this a sample of the future, an era of the pension crisis, scarcity of oil, inflation    and fal...
Simple identity•   Research by the Trajectory Group highlights that affluent consumers have revealed    mounting dissatisf...
Simple identity•   Tourists also have become canny at searching for bargains which economists call    mercurial consumptio...
Market Pain Points
Market Pain Points       •     Research on passenger dissatisfaction reflects the obvious issues that             make air...
Market Pain Points
What Passengers Want•   As a result of social media-inspired discussion, and with the assistance of    London City Airport...
What Passengers WantSource: Future Travel Experience , May 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/05/what-do-pass...
EmergingCustomers
Tracking the rise of the middle class across the BRICs and N-11:Share of population with incomes between $6,000 and $30,00...
Primed for More TravelSource: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2010-2029, December 2010http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_...
Source: Airbus 2009 http://www.airbus.com/en/gmf2009/appli.htm?onglet=&page=
Online bookings in Asia-Pacific,         2008 and 2011                                            2008                    ...
China consumer report•   By the year 2020, China will have a population of more than 1.4 billion people that will    make ...
China and India entering era of travel •   Dun Jidong, spokesman for the China Travel Service notes that GDP per capita ha...
Source: Goldman Sachs ‘Is this the ‘BRICs Decade’?’ May 2010http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/brics-decade-doc.pdf
AviationIndustryOutlook
International Passengers in 2014  Source: IATA 2010, Markets in 2014  http://www.iata.org/ps/publications/Documents/Exampl...
Freight in 2014Source: IATA 2010, Markets in 2014http://www.iata.org/ps/publications/Documents/Example%20-%20Projected%20T...
Aviation in 2029Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2010-2029, December 2010http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_galler...
Future Demand•   Passenger air traffic is forecast to double by 2030 as 12 billion of us take to    the skies. So what wil...
Future Demand•   Nearby in Dubai, another gigantic airport, Al-Maktoum International, will    eventually have five runways...
IATA Launches Vision 2050•   The International Air Transport Association (IATA) called on industry leaders    to look beyo...
IATA Launches Vision 2050•   ―In just over a decade, I can see $100 billion in industry profits on revenues    of $1 trill...
IATA Launches Vision 2050•   Profitability: ―Efficiency gains never make it to the bottom line because    airlines are dep...
IATA Launches Vision 2050•   Infrastructure: ―Infrastructure must be reshaped around the needs of    airlines—the core of ...
IATA Launches Vision 2050•   Powering the Industry: ―Today‘s jet fuel cannot sustain air transport in the    long-term. We...
IATA Launches Vision 2050•   The Customer: ―The customer is at the center of our future vision. By    2050, we will have 1...
EUROCONTROL: Long Term          Forecast•   Future air traffic will be limited by capacity at the airports, 0.7-5.0 millio...
EUROCONTROL: Long Term      Forecast Source: Eurocontrol, 2010 http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gallery/content/public/f...
EUROCONTROL: Long Term      ForecastSource: EuroControl, 2010 http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gallery/content/public/fo...
Source: EuroControl, 2010 http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gallery/content/public/forecasts/Doc415-LTF10-Report-Vol1.pdf
Visions ofTomorrow’s  Airport
Exploring the Airport of 2030•   The importance of generating non-aeronautical revenue streams has also    had a major imp...
Siemens Airport Lab•      Inside Siemens airy, 90,000-square-foot glass and steel structure in       Germany is an entire ...
Siemens Airport Lab•      Also being tested in the lab are new fingerprint and facial-recognition       systems as Siemens...
Siemens Airport Lab•      Siemens says the radio wave technology will eventually replace bar-code       tracking systems n...
Visions of the Future•   EADS Innovation Works (IW), the corporate network of research centres of    EADS, and Altran, an ...
Visions of the Future•   Intermodal transfers will be seamless and final destinations are to be reached    smoothly, predi...
Eye to the Sky
Visions of the Future•   The following three concept from EADSs were selected and elaborated in    more detail.•   The Eye...
Visions of the Future•   The Passenger Airport Shuttles (PAS) concept.•   With a predicted time of at most seven minutes t...
Visions of the Future•   The Extended Airport concept•   The Extended Airport concept addresses the vision of providing a ...
User Friendly Terminals   •     Munich Airport‘s new InfoGates allow passengers to obtain quick and         detailed infor...
Future of Airports•   David Holm, Principal Architect, Woodhead, explained that retail,    commercial, advertising and oth...
Future of Airports•   Urban Catalyst – ―Innovative civic and transport leaders are now seeing    airports and their surrou...
Future of Airports•   Sense of Place – ―Our design projects endeavour to make the subtle    connection between context, pl...
Exploring the Airport of 2030•   The impact of a master plan, which often outlines a blueprint for the airport    with a v...
Background Note         The Intelligent Networked Airport     •   A passenger-sensing, self-organising unified network to ...
Background Note         The Intelligent Networked Airport     •   TINA - The intelligent networked airport     •   ―For in...
Background Note           The Intelligent Networked Airport      •    To track people and assets, researchers are looking ...
Background Note           The Intelligent Networked Airport     •     Zinwave application     •     A ‗long-range‘ passive...
Background Note           The Intelligent Networked Airport     •     Network architecture specifications     •     The ba...
Flexible Terminals
Flexible Terminals     •    An Austrian company, TMT, has installed a mobile passenger terminal          at Switzerland‘s ...
Flexible Terminals•    Thomas Melcher, managing director and inventor of TMT The Mobile     Terminal - Melcher has ambitio...
The ‘Airport City’•   This geographical advantage has led to the rapid rise of the ‗airport city‘    and, according to Cur...
Airport Cities: Manchester
Airport Cities: Manchester       •    More than 10,000 jobs could be created around Manchester Airport when it            ...
Airlines and  Aircraft  Futures
Impact of Consolidation
Impact of Consolidation• The airline industry continues its consolidation trend: in  Europe things started with the Air Fr...
Shifting the Goalposts
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Rohit Talwar   Travel  2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Rohit Talwar Travel 2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011

15,936

Published on

Presentation and background notes from Rohit Talwar's keynote to the Future Travel Experience Conference for the Airport and Airline Sectors - Sep 8th

0 Comments
3 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
15,936
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
732
Comments
0
Likes
3
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Rohit Talwar Travel 2030 - Master Document Sep 13th 2011

  1. 1. Travel 2030 – Reinventing thePassenger Experience Expanded Slide Set Vancouver, BC September 8th 2011 Rohit Talwar CEO – Fast Future rohit@fastfuture.com
  2. 2. ContentsPresentation p3About Fast Future p 91Background Notes p 103Image Sources p 355
  3. 3. MacroDrivers
  4. 4. The World in 2030
  5. 5. How do we get there from Here? Customer Research & New Insight Innovation Business Models
  6. 6. Growth is not Guaranteed…
  7. 7. …Thinking is Back in Fashion
  8. 8. Transformational Change? It’s Only Just Begun
  9. 9. 10 Key Patterns of Change Shaping the Next Decade Economic turbulence, a shift in wealth from west to east and political uncertainty are shaping the landscape Natural Society in Resource Demographic Transition Challenges Destinies Geo-political Generational Complexity Economic Crisis Crossroads and Power Shift RethinkingTechnology Talent,and Science Education, Training Enterprise 3.0 Global Internet Expansion Source: Designing your Future – Key Trends, Challenges and Choices – Fast Future
  10. 10. Aviation Outlook
  11. 11. Airport Expansion by 2020 China from ~150 to 244 India from ~100 to 140 Today - US – 3 Seats per head / China 0.3 / India 0.1Asia – a third of all flyers (2013) and travel spend (2020)
  12. 12. Under 100 US Airports by 2015?
  13. 13. Airports only in Major Euro Cities
  14. 14. Low Cost Carriers64% - Half will Collapse49% - Massive Growth
  15. 15. New Business Models / Airlines
  16. 16. Industry Scenarios High Uncharted Paranoid Territory SurviveLow High Passenger Price Sensitivity Back to the Crash and Future Burn Low Business Model Innovation
  17. 17. Virtual Airlines
  18. 18. Sustainable Green Terminals
  19. 19. Fast Build, Flexible and Temporary Terminals
  20. 20. Redistribution of Aviation Profit Pools
  21. 21. Embracing Open Innovation Airport Living Lab
  22. 22. FutureCustomers
  23. 23. Demographic Destinies 2 billion more people in 40 years –Demographics is Driving Economics 448 739 691 5231 344 1998 4157 729 1030 585 Source : United Nations 2010 2050 http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm
  24. 24. Life Redefined – Lifespans are IncreasingUnder 50’s have 90%chance of living to 100.Aubrey de Grey suggestswe could live to 500 or 1000What are the health,consumption and resourceimplications?What kind of opportunitieswill be created?
  25. 25. Tomorrow’s Traveler - Demographics• Over 60‘s in developed economies to rise from 22- 33% from 2009 and 2050.• In developing world, from 9 to 20%• Global retirement market 2010-2020 could grow from $28 - $46 Tn• Global middle class could rise from 430M to 1.2 Bn (2000 – 2030) Source: United Nations Report Warns of Dire Effects of Under population, Fertility Decline,’ by Susan Yoshihara, PhD, March 5th 2010, Life News http://www.lifenews.com/int1479.html http://www.financial-planning.com/news/allianz-retirement-pensions-growth-2668604-1.html
  26. 26. Tomorrow’s Traveler – Spending Patterns• By 2020, Asian consumers could account for over 40% of global middle class consumption• By 2030 Asian consumer spending could hit $32 trillion• By 2014 female wealth could reach $18 trillion• Females could control 70% of global consumer spending
  27. 27. Traveller Mindsets Too Busy To Care Complex Lives, Pressurised Finances Craving Simplicity Wealthy and Hard to Please
  28. 28. Buying Behaviour• Mobile• Low loyalty• Multiple searches and site visits• Word of mouth critical• Value conscious – price, offers, rewards• Shorter trips• Shorter notice
  29. 29. Traveler motivations will become increasingly fragmented and diverse and harder to segment into clearly definable customer groupings604 Respondents
  30. 30. I will book the bulk of my travel online in 2015 74% - Will use Social 64% Networks to Research and Find Deals 31% 3% 2%Very likely Likely Unlikely Very unlikely
  31. 31. Technology Horizons
  32. 32. Tomorrow’s Traveler – Technology• Number of mobile subscribers could rise from 4Bn to 5Bn 2009-2015• Mobile data traffic to rise 300- fold by 2015 (Nokia).• By 2020 the range and nature of interaction technologies / customer ‗touch points‘ will expand dramatically.• ‗Go nowhere‘ gamers• Personal genetic profiles Source: U.N report, cited by metamanda http://www.metamanda.com/blog/archives/2009/03/cell-phone-use-at-60-worldwide.html
  33. 33. TINA – The Intelligent Airport
  34. 34. Cloud Computing
  35. 35. TMT – Convergence and ImmersionTelephony Connectivity• Voice • Cellular• Messaging • Up to 14 bands• SIM card • WLAN/BT• Phonebook • GPS• Ring Tones • NFC• Security • FMData/ MultimediaEnterprise • Camera 8-16M • Camcorder• 100Mbps • 24M Color Display• Email • Memory (160GB)• IMS • Multiformat A/V• Browsing • HD Video/TV out• VPN • Games• PIM• Ecommerce Software (50-100M Tps) • Protocols • DRM• Payments • Middleware • Applications • User Interface • Minimize fragmentation
  36. 36. Apps – What I Want, When I WantSource: Forrester
  37. 37. Next Generation Smart Phones• Concierge / Schedule Management• Check in• Notifications / Directions• Route Management• UGC• Wallet• Location Based Offers• Dynamic Rerouting• Personal Networking
  38. 38. Personalised Advertising
  39. 39. Holographic Displays
  40. 40. Augmented Reality / Heads Up
  41. 41. AR at Copenhagen Airport
  42. 42. Gesture Interfaces
  43. 43. Touchable Holograms
  44. 44. Interactive Surfaces
  45. 45. Wearable Displays
  46. 46. Ambient Intelligence
  47. 47. Real Time / Predictive Analytics
  48. 48. 3D Printing – True Personalization
  49. 49. Rethinking the Airport Experience
  50. 50. Live the Customer Journeys and Experiences Stimulus / Search / Booking Transport to and from the Airport Check in to Flight Departure Flight Arrival to Airport Exit Flight Transfer - Arrival to Departure Airport Experience In Flight Experience Relationship Management
  51. 51. Mapping Customer Journeys & ExperiencesSub process▪ Traffic ▪ Off airport flight ▪ Arrival at airport by ▪ Parking ▪ Transport fromKPI information information car/train parking to PlazaScore ▪ Traffic jams ▪ Accessibility ▪ Price/Quality LT ▪ Ease of wayfinding 73% 91% / 90% 41% 90% <Plaza aankomst> <Picture>Sub process▪ Entering Plaza ▪ Services; rental, ▪ Leaving Plaza ▪ Departure from ▪ Retrieving car &KPI parking airport by bus/train Leaving airportScore ▪ Clarity ▪ Clarity ▪ Accessibility 77% 77% 90% / 80%
  52. 52. Airport Arrival
  53. 53. Extended Airport?
  54. 54. Check In
  55. 55. Next Gen Qantas Check-In
  56. 56. Security
  57. 57. Are Biometrics the Answer?
  58. 58. Flight Departure
  59. 59. Minimising Journey Times
  60. 60. Arrivals –Localizing the Experience?
  61. 61. Aircraft Turnaround
  62. 62. Enhancing the Airport Experience
  63. 63. ‘Virtual Assistants’
  64. 64. Catering and Lounge Experiences
  65. 65. Services
  66. 66. The Slide@T3Changi Airport - Singapore
  67. 67. Funding The Future –From Cabin to Cash Register
  68. 68. Multiple Revenue Streams
  69. 69. Leveraging Customer Insight
  70. 70. Integrated Travel Solutions
  71. 71. Best Price Guarantees
  72. 72. Partner Tie-insPullman Bangkok King Power Hotel
  73. 73. In-flight Duty FreeKorean Air - Shop Onboard
  74. 74. Passenger Centric, Context Related e.g. The Virgin Red Store Single swipe ‘open tab’
  75. 75. In Terminal / In-Flight Travel Agency
  76. 76. Booking/Boarding Pass Ads / Offers
  77. 77. Daily Social Media Offers e.g. Twitter
  78. 78. Rethinking Airport Retail
  79. 79. Auctions - The $17,739 iPad
  80. 80. Air Sahara/Jetlite
  81. 81. Outsourcing In-flight Duty Free e.g. BA / Tourvest
  82. 82. So How Can we Respond?
  83. 83. The Journey to 2030• Continuous research• Define change roadmaps – passenger journeys and experiences, operations and technology• Experiment• Develop uncertainty tolerant management
  84. 84. Mapping a Path to 2030Strategic Management ImperativesHorizon scanning Scenario based planning Anticipation Open processes Rapid implementation Tomorrow’s workforce
  85. 85. Aviation Next – what does the timeline of developments looklike for the sector in your region?
  86. 86. Deep Dive on Key Trends / Issues
  87. 87. Be Magnetic
  88. 88. Make Time and Space for Change http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/bigphotos/images/090305-daylight-saving-time-facts-history_big.jpg
  89. 89. Conclusions• Huge untapped potential• Technology is a key enabler• Encourage innovation and curiosity• Experiment with business models• Work with and for tomorrow‘s passenger
  90. 90. Thank YouRohit TalwarCEOFast Futurerohit@fastfuture.comTel +44 (0)20 8830 0766Mob +44 (0)7973 405145Twitter http://twitter.com/fastfutureLinkedIn http://www.linkedin.com/in/talwarwww.fastfuture.comwww.convention-2020.comBlog http://widerhorizons.wordpress.comSignup for our newsletters / Download past editions at www.fastfuture.comWatch a short video of Rohit at http://www.travelmole.tv/watch_vdo.php?id=14300Download the Hotels 2020: Beyond Segmentation Report athttp://www.amadeus.com/hotelit/beyond-segmentation.html
  91. 91. About Fast Future 91
  92. 92. Fast Future – Aviation and Travel Industry Services• Live Events - Speeches, briefings and workshops for executive management and boards of airlines, airports, hotels, venues, CVB‘s and associations• Future Insights - Customised research on emerging trends, future scenarios, technologies and new markets• Immersion - ‗Deep dives‘ on future trends, market developments, emerging issues and technology advances• Strategy - Development of strategies and business plans• Innovation - Creation of business models and innovation plans• Engagement - Consultancy and workshop facilitation
  93. 93. Fast Future• Research, consulting, speaking, leadership• 5-20 year horizon - focus on ideas, developments, people, trends and forces shaping the future• Clients – Airports - Aeroports de Paris / Schiphol Group – Vancouver Airport Services – Industry Associations – ICCA, ASAE, PCMA, MPI – Corporates - GE, Nokia, Pepsi, IBM, Intel, Orange, O2, Siemens, Samsung, GSK, SAPE&Y, KPMG, Amadeus, Sabre, Travelport, Travelex, ING, Santander, Barclays, Citibank, DeutscheBank – Governments - Dubai, Finland, Nigeria, Singapore, UK, US – Convention Bureaus – Seoul, Sydney, London, San Francisco, Toronto, Abu Dhabi, Durban, Athens, Slovenia, Copenhagen – Convention Centres – Melbourne, Adelaide, Qatar, QEIICC – Hotels - Accor Group, Preferred, – Intercontinental – PCO‘s - Congrex, Kenes
  94. 94. Hotels 2020 – Objectives• Identify key drivers of change for the globally branded hotel sector over the next decade• Examine the implications for:  Hotel strategy  Brand portfolio  Business models  Customer targeting  Innovation
  95. 95. Convention 2020• Global strategic foresight study to help the meetings industry prepare for the decade ahead - Industry-wide sponsors• Multiple outputs Nov 2009 – December 2011• Current studies on future strategies for venues and destinations
  96. 96. Future Convention Cities Initiative• Members - Cities aiming to be global leaders in delivery of business events• Focus - Maximising long term economic benefit of events• Core Activities - Research, sharing of expertise and best practices• Engagement Model - Meet four time a year prior to major industry events• Management - Initiated and co-ordinated by Fast Future
  97. 97. Rohit Talwar• Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic innovation – addressing leadership audiences in 40 countries on 5 continents• Author of Designing Your Future• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top 10 Global Future Thinkers• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications, technology, pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism, environment, food and government sectors• Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De Beers, DHL, EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai, IBM, ING, Intel, KPMG, M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis, OECD, Orange, Panasonic, Pfizer, PwC, Samsung, Shell, Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous international associations and governments agencies in the US, UK, Finland, Dubai, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.• To receive Fast Future’s newsletters please email rohit@fastfuture.com
  98. 98. Designing Your Future Key Trends, Challenges and Choices• 50 key trends• 100 emerging trends• 10 major patterns of change• Key challenges and choices for leaders• Strategic decision making framework• Scenarios for 2012• Key futures tools and techniques• Published August 2008• Price £49.95 / €54.95/ $69.95• Email invoice request to rohit@fastfuture.com
  99. 99. Our Services Bespoke research; Identification & Analysis of Future Trends, Drivers & Shocks Public Speaking, In- Company Briefings, Accelerated Scenario Seminars and Workshops Planning, Timelining & Future MappingPersonal Futuring for Leadersand Leadership Teams Expert Consultations & Futures Think Tanks Identification of Design & Facilitation of Opportunities for Innovation, Incubation & Innovation and Strategic Venturing Programmes Investment Strategy Creation & Development of Implementation Roadmaps
  100. 100. Example Projects• Public and private client research e.g. : – Development of Market Scenarios, emerging trends and strategies for key clients – Government and OECD Scenario Projects – e.g. Migration 2030, Future of Narcotics, Chemical Sector, Family 2030 – Scenarios for the global economy for 2030 and the implications for migration – Designing Your Future (Published August 2008) – book written for the American Society of Association Executives & The Center for Association Leadership – Global Economies – e.g. The Future of China – the Path to 2020 – The Shape of Jobs to Come – Emerging Science and Technology Sectors and Careers – Winning in India and China – The Future of Human Resources – Exploiting the Future Potential of Social Media in UK Small to Medium Enterprises – Convention 2020 – the Future of Business Events – Future Convention Cities Initiative – Maximising Long-term Economic Impact of Events – One Step Beyond – Future trends and challenges for the events industry – Hotels 2020: Beyond Segmentation – Future Hotel Strategies – The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East – a Vision to 2020 – Future of Travel and Tourism Investment in Saudi Arabia – Aviation and Airports e.g. Aviation 2030
  101. 101. Example Clients
  102. 102. TINA – Key FactsThe network will support:• 1,000 Fixed and 500 Mobile Video Cameras - 10 Gb/s• 500 Displays - 10 Gb/s• 500 Biometric Scanners - 10 Gb/s• Private and Public Fixed and Wireless LAN - 20 Gb/s• Cellular services - 10 Gb/s• TETRA and private radio - 0.5 Gb/s• Passive RFID - 0.2 Gb/s• Active locatable RFID - 5 Gb/s• Aggregate Mean Rate 65.7 Gb/s; assumed Aggregate Peak Rate 100 Gb/s
  103. 103. Background Notes
  104. 104. MacroDrivers
  105. 105. We need to Prepare for Alternative Scenarios 8-10% Suspicious Love is in Minds the AirGDPGrowth Dancing inIndia 6-7% the DarkandChina Road to Nowhere 1-2% Recession 0% 1-2% 2-3% GDP Growth Europe, the USA and Japan
  106. 106. Derivatives – Market Value vs. Global GDP 800 760 700 700 605 600US$ Trillion 500 400 300 200 100 69.8 14.2 4.33 0 Richard 2010 est Bank of World GDP US GDP Chinese GDP Duncan (June International 2008) Settlements June 2009 estSource: BIS, 2009 BIS - http://www.roubini.com/financemarkets-monitor/258502/___swap_tango________a_derivative_regulation_dance__part_12010 - http://www.newsmax.com/deBorchgrave/BankforInternationalSettlements-BIS-derivatives-MerrillLynch/2010/05/11/id/358672
  107. 107. Public debt in 2020 (% of GDP)Source: Deutsche Bank Research ‘Public debt in 2020’ March 2010http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000255134.pdf
  108. 108. Economic Power Shifts The Top 20 in 2025?GDP US$ Source: IMF WEO 2009, PwC ‗the World in 2050 March 2008 edition
  109. 109. Reorientation of global markets• Some 647 million air travelers — more than a quarter of the 2.2 billion passengers who flew worldwide — took to the skies in Asia in 2009, compared to the 638 million air travelers in North America, hitherto the traditional leader in global aviation.• By 2013, an additional 217 million travelers are expected to fly within Asia to push the region‘s aviation market share to about one-third of the world market.• In the U.S. there are three aircraft seats per year for each of the 300 million people who live here.• China‘s population of 1.3 billion is served by only 0.3 seats per person and India‘s 1.1 billion population has only 0.1 seats available per person.• When Asians reach the stage of traveling as frequently as people in the U.S., that alone will triple the size of today‘s global aviation industry. Source: Bay Area Travel Writers ‘Travel Trends: Asia Eclipses America in Aviation Markets — by Lakshman Ratnapala,’ March 2010 http://www.batw.org/news/industry-news/travel-trends_mar-2010/
  110. 110. Current spending patterns • Reinforcing the appeal of duty free Top Asia-Pacific Amount US$ duty free spenders savings, 43 percent of all respondents said they shopped at a duty free store Korea 358 during their last overseas trip. China 333 • Travelers from Japan (73 percent), Hong Kong 224 Korea (71 percent) and China (49 percent) were the region‘s most Malaysia 195 frequent duty free shoppers while India 180 Korean and Chinese travelers also Thailand 178 made it to the biggest spender list. Japan 164 Australia 153 Singapore 153 New Zealand 134 Taiwan 125 Regional Average 212Source: China Travel Trends, September 2009 http://www.chinatraveltrends.com/2009/09/16/chinese-travellers-top-list-of-duty-free-spenders-in-asia-pacific/
  111. 111. Future regions of multiple stressSource: Ministry of Defence ‘Strategic Trends Programme, Global Strategic Trends out to 2040,’ February 2010http://www.mod.uk/NR/rdonlyres/D70F2CC7-5673-43AE-BA73-1F887801266C/0/20100202GST_4_Global_Strategic_Trends_Out_to_2040UDCDCStrat_Trends_4.pdf
  112. 112. Source: Tourism Futures http://www.tourismfutures.net/insights/demographic
  113. 113. Source: Tourism Futures http://www.tourismfutures.net/insights/demographic
  114. 114. Source: Ministry of Defence ‘Strategic Trends Programme, Global Strategic Trends out to 2040,’ February 2010http://www.mod.uk/NR/rdonlyres/D70F2CC7-5673-43AE-BA73-1F887801266C/0/20100202GST_4_Global_Strategic_Trends_Out_to_2040UDCDCStrat_Trends_4.pdf
  115. 115. Climate Change
  116. 116. The Climate Change Challenge• How fast can CO2 emissions be reduced per unit travel?• How can we move towards convergence on the most effective way to reduce aviation climate change impacts?• How can we best address non-CO2 climate impacts?• Where are carbon emissions owned?Source: Henley Centre Headlight Vision ‘Managing the environmental challenges of growth in aviation Draft report of stakeholder event,Cambridge’ October 2006
  117. 117. TravelOutlook
  118. 118. Multi speed recovery leading to many types of tourist• The global travel and tourism industry will experience a ―multi-speed‖ recovery taking up to a further four years to fully recover to pre-global downturn levels, reveals a report launched on June 16th 2010.• Euromonitor International‘s Forecast Update – Recovery In Sight? - reveals the global travel and tourism industry will experience a ―multi-speed‖ recovery kick started by the developing economies as high unemployment and debt in developed countries holds back their growth.• Global international arrivals will not recover to pre-crisis 2008 levels until 2012, while incoming tourism receipts will not recover until 2013.• Furthermore, the hotels sector will not fully recover to 2008 levels until 2014.• The hotel sector in Australasia, Latin America, and Europe will take the longest to recover.• Asia is again driving force behind the hotels recovery, due to the continued expansion of international and local chains. Source: World Tourism Directory, June 2010 http://www.worldtourismdirectory.com/news/4325/global-travel-industry-to-experience-multi-speed-recovery.html
  119. 119. Travel in 2023• A report by KPMG released in April 2008 ranked transport and tourism as the sectors least well prepared for climate change and among those most commercially exposed to the physical risks it presents.• Forum for the Future in its ‗Tourism 2023‘ report of October 2009 partnered with companies like British Airways, Carnival UK, and Advantage Travel Centres to analyze the impact our ever-growing ecological footprint will have on travel.• The four scenarios under which we could progress: – 1) Boom and Burst – 2) Divided Disquiet – 3) Price and Privilege – 4) Carbon Clampdown Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009 http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf
  120. 120. Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009 http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf
  121. 121. Boom and Burst• A booming economy and high disposable incomes have fuelled a growth in travel worldwide. People travel further, more frequently, and at faster speeds than ever before. There are many new reasons to go abroad as global political stability and prospering economies have opened up the world to more commerce and visitors.• Rapid advances in technology have been crucial, such as the breakthrough in algae- based fuels. Dramatic improvements in efficiencies have allowed the transport sector just about to keep pace with new regulations and their impacts, such as the steadily rising global price of carbon.• Legally binding carbon targets are being met – but many are asking how long this can continue. Many destinations are suffering from serious overcrowding. Wilderness is perhaps the scarcest resource as road, rail, sea and air routes have brought mass tourism to the last corners of the planet. Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009 http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf
  122. 122. Boom and Burst highlights• Tourists flock to see the ancient shrines and archaeological treasures of Iraq.• Massive protests spoil the opening of the Mount Everest Theme Park.• Tourism puts huge strains on infrastructure in popular destinations like New York, Paris and London. Visitors are herded between attractions with timed tickets.• High-tech ‗carbon scrubbers‘ installed on the ground ‗clean the air so you can travel‘.• Overcrowding in popular destinations has led to the rise of glamorous ‗campsites‘, ‗pop up‘ hotels with stackable modules, and floating resorts.• Fastest growing destinations: the Democratic Republic of Burma, Yemen, Beyond Botswana Plc (Privatised Special Economic Zone), Somalia, Argentina, Brazil, Antarctica, Near space voyages, Papua New Guinea, Kazakhstan. Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009 http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf
  123. 123. Divided Disquiet• A toxic combination of devastating climate change impacts, violent wars over scarce resources and social unrest has created an unstable and fearful world. This has made travelling overseas an unattractive proposition.• Many destinations were unprepared for the impacts of a changing climate. More extreme weather events, rising sea levels, increased flooding and frequent droughts have battered some places, while food shortages and malnutrition, malaria, and conflict over resources like water and oil have wreaked havoc in others.• Visitors are highly selective in where and when they travel, cramming into a small number of destinations where overcrowding compounds the problems.• A breakthrough in affordable telepresence technology has proved surprisingly popular with businesses that are keen to cut costs. This resulted in drastically reduced numbers of certain air routes, closing them to many holidaymakers. Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009 http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf
  124. 124. Divided Disquiet Highlights• ‗One flight per year‘ policy for major US company encourages executives to cut costs with telepresence technologies.• Tour guides with a military background hired as part of a holiday package for extra protection abroad.• Rising sea levels force Government of Maldives to step up relocation plans to India.•• Latest ‗hot‘ holiday craze is massive resorts offering golf and skiing across sand dunes.• Eiffel Tower auctioned off to a multinational corporation as part of sponsored heritage plan.• Fast growing destinations: Norway, Ireland, Latvia, UK, Greenland Doomsday Park, Canada, Denmark, France, Sweden, The Estonian Army Base Experience. Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009 http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf
  125. 125. Price and Privilege • A dramatically high oil price has made travel punitively expensive. Dwindling supplies and rising demand from the new economies of Asia have pushed energy prices into a series of sharp and unpredictable spikes. • The travel industry worldwide has been badly hit and aviation has shrunk dramatically. Fleet replacements have been slower than anticipated and the predicted efficiency gains could not keep pace. There have been mass redundancies across the travel industry and a period of dramatic consolidation across the world. • Although a small, elite market continues to fly regularly, the vast majority of people simply cannot afford the experience. The days of affordable travel are now just a nostalgic memory. • People who want to holiday abroad either save up for years and fly overseas or join the new mass market of overland connections. Pan-European rail, bus and sea networks offer the most cost-effective means of travel for most people. State-of-the- art super-hubs provide seamless connections between different parts of the comfortable and affordable system of overland travel.Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009 http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf
  126. 126. Price and Privilege Highlights• Demonstrators take to streets in cities across the world demanding the ‗right to fly‘.• Ukraine positions itself as the ‗Gateway to the East‘ with new Kiev bus-rail megahub plan.• ‗Absolutely no frills‘ airline sector from some non-EU countries offers standing room only and no cabin crew.• Banks offer holiday credit schemes allowing family and friends to save together for the annual trip.• Fastest growing destinations: Montenegro, France, Lithuania, Portugal, Germany, Central Europe Lakelands, SailRail breaks to Greece, Morocco, The Tropical Island Experience (Jersey), Ukraine. Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009 http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf
  127. 127. Carbon Clampdown• Governments introduce tradable carbon quotas for all households as part bold plans to tackle climate change. Individual allowances are seen as the fairest way of allocating the ‗right to pollute‘ equally.• The public has clamoured for tough action. Environmental impacts are increasingly felt. Although there has been no great shift in cultural values, support for regulation is high.• The economy is more localised, and disposable incomes are low.• Many holidaymakers are still keen to travel abroad, but perceptions of the purpose and real costs of travel have changed. Although distance is a key consideration, the reason for the holiday is crucial: what you are doing is more important than where you are.• Ethical travel is a new mass market, and the government encourages this with the carbon rebate for volunteering whilst abroad. Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009 http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf
  128. 128. Carbon Clampdown Highlights• Major travel firm goes bust after massive boycott coordinated by a popular website over its environmental policy.• Red Cross Swarm uses social networks to send volunteers to disaster zones faster than official agency staff.• Peer-to-peer holidaying allows people to ‗swap lives‘ with another family and spend a year in another part of the world.• Fastest growing destinations: Cornwall, Ukraine, Sweden, Mozambique Special Volunteer Zone, Lithuania, Northumbria, Cork, France, Slow Boat Community (registered to Guyana), Liverpool. Source: Forum for the Future ‘Tourism 2023,’ October 2009 http://www.forumforthefuture.org/files/Tourism_2023_full_report_web_version.pdf
  129. 129. What does this mean?• Fast Company notes that ‗…the reality of vacationing in 2023 will probably be a combination of these scenarios, with high oil prices, disappearing wilderness, carbon quotas, and advances in air travel (i.e. biofuel-powered planes).‘ Source: Fast Company ‘Tourism 2023 Imagines the Future of Vacations,’ October 2009 http://www.fastcompany.com/blog/ariel-schwartz/sustainability/tourism-2023-imagines-future-vacations
  130. 130. Predictions• Charles Goddard, Asia Pacific Editorial Director, Economist Intelligence Unit, speaking at the ALTM Ultratravel Forum, said that ‘…China, despite the crisis, and because of economic stimulus packages, had continued to grow in the last 18 months by between 8% and 9%. This shift would be even more dramatic if China became more consumption driven as opposed to export led, and this was beginning to happen.’• ‘Asia was the growth market ‘par-excellence’ with 50% of global consumption being centred in the region in the next 4-5 years. An explosion in travel would be an offshoot of this phenomenon,’ he said. Source: Travel Daily News ‘Bullish growth for inbound and outbound travel in Asia Pacific and China,’ June 2010 http://www.traveldailynews.com/pages/show_page/37535-Bullish-growth-for-inbound-and-outbound-travel-in-Asia-Pacific-and-China
  131. 131. Future of Travel and Tourism• 1. Keeping it local. If trends in energy, economy, and environment continue, then traveling long distances for recreation will become more rare. In order for the resort community to maintain a market, they will need to cater more to a local clientele. This is captured in the concept of the 10-kilometer hotel, one whose prime customers come from the local area for a respite.• 2. Alternative transport. In 2009 a newspaper in Seattle featured a photo of a local organic farmer delivering his wares via sailboat to the docks in Seattle. He calls it the no-oil food. In the travel and tourism industry this kind of move will be and is being mirrored as people seek out non-motorized experiences like biking through France, or taking trips by sail. Over the longer term, again depending on how energy, environment, and economic trends play out, it is likely that tourists will seek out slower, less energy intensive, even zero-fossil fuel energy experiences. Source: Futurist ‘Future of Travel and Tourism ,’by Glen Hiemstra on 01/07/09 http://www.futurist.com/2009/07/01/future-of-travel-and-tourism/
  132. 132. Future of Travel and Tourism• 3. Destination evolution. This trend is underway, as destination resorts focus on becoming greener and more sustainable, more local in their attraction, more astute in their use of information technology for advertising and for management, and more knowledgeable of market trends via research.• 4. New whys of travel. It is said that there is graffiti from ancient tourists on the monuments in Egypt. People have always and will always travel to see new places and people, even if they have to walk or ride an animal to do so. That is not going to change. But, one more time depending on how the converging trends play out, we may see a return to the why of travel being for two primary purposes – to visit family, and to seek new adventure. Business travel may decline as 3D-net technologies become robust, and distance travel may decline as economic and environmental imperatives demand. Local travel may fill the need for reconnecting with yourself and recharging the batteries. In fact making that a focus of what you offer in the travel and tourism industry may be one key to the future. Source: Futurist ‘Future of Travel and Tourism,’ by Glen Hiemstra on 01/07/09 http://www.futurist.com/2009/07/01/future-of-travel-and-tourism/
  133. 133. FutureCustomers
  134. 134. Changing European Ethnicity
  135. 135. Preference for Rail over Air 66% - Europe 18% - USA
  136. 136. Trends• Concierge services are set to make a rise across the mid market travel sector according to Euromonitor International, who released their results for the 2010 global travel trends at the World Travel Market in November 2009• Kuoni are one company set to offer customers concierge options. Andrea Mueller, Communications Manager for Kuoni said; "Today people are overwhelmed by information on travel and tourism services and need more guidance. Concierge services will play and important role in helping them make intelligent choices based on their individual needs". Source: World Travel Guide, November 2009 http://www.worldtravelguide.net/news/3551/news/Global-travel-trends-2010.html
  137. 137. Simple identity• The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) plummeted the value of the High Net Worth population by US $32.8 trillion or 19.5% according to the World Wealth Report (2009) published by CapGemini and Merrill Lynch, so the rich are less rich.• Writing in the Harvard Business Review, Paul Flatters and Michael Wilmott argue that in most developed economies pre GFC, that the precession consumer behaviour was the product of 15 years of uninterrupted prosperity, driven by growth in real levels of disposal incomes, low inflation, stable employment and booming property prices.• As such, new consumer appetites emerged in which the consumer could afford to be curious about gadgets and technology, in which tourists shelled out for enriching and fun experiences on exotic locations. Where they could afford several holidays a year and rent premium experiences such as hiring a Ferrari for the weekend in exotic locations like Japan.• The GFC changed that, propelling tourist trends into slowdown, halting or even reserving the trajectory of growth in world tourism. Source: Tomorrow’s Tourist ‘Simple Identity,’ 2009 http://www.tomorrowstourist.com/simple_identity.php
  138. 138. Simple identity• So, is this a sample of the future, an era of the pension crisis, scarcity of oil, inflation and falling levels of disposal income in which tourism expenditure falls year on year?• If so, what will the future tourist look like? Rather than having a fluid identity it will be more akin to simplicity.• During an economic slowdown, tourists tend to travel less, stay nearer home (increase in domestic tourism) and seek simplicity such as exploreworldwide.com value based holidays focusing on basic facilities, meeting locals, lots of free time and cheap in exotic locations throughout the world. This trend is accelerated in a scenario of falling incomes as a simple and functional product that will suffice. A simple identity means that offering advice becomes extremely important, whether its websites farecast.com‘s ,which advises travellers of the optimal time to purchase an airline ticket or price comparison technologies which are found on many online booking services. Source: Tomorrow’s Tourist ‘Simple Identity,’ 2009 http://www.tomorrowstourist.com/simple_identity.php
  139. 139. Simple identity• Research by the Trajectory Group highlights that affluent consumers have revealed mounting dissatisfaction with excessive consumption. Many desire a wholesome and less wasteful life. As such, there is a desire to get back to nature, something that is tranquil, basic, rooted, human and simple (Yeoman 2008). As a consequence, the desire for more authentic and simple luxury experiences accelerates. An example of simple luxury, are tree house hotels which offer a unique experience in a natural setting. A new experience which is not seen as conspicuous consumption, but overtly inconspicuous.• In a simple identity, ethical consumption declines as paying a premium for a Starbucks coffee falls by the wayside, even if they use organic coffee which supports children in a third world country. From a tourism perspective, many of the ethical tourism projects in third world countries such as Africa and India which depend on independent travellers will suffer. Source: Tomorrow’s Tourist ‘Simple Identity,’ 2009 http://www.tomorrowstourist.com/simple_identity.php
  140. 140. Simple identity• Tourists also have become canny at searching for bargains which economists call mercurial consumption, whether it is using price comparison software, or grabbing last minute offers from websites such as grabaseat.co.nz which offer last minute air travel deals to New Zealand consumers, or 5pm.co.uk which offers diners the chance of discounted meals after 5pm that evening. Technology and social media network enabling purchasing strategies, further accelerate this trend of mercurial consumption.• Attitudes to travel also change, as tourism has to compete with other forms of leisure expenditure, whether it is the latest technology gadgets or virtual holidays. There is a generation of Japan youth who prefer their X-Box than climbing Mt Fuji. The desire for new experiences is more about insperience, where technology provides a better experience than in which consumers desire to bring top level experiences into their domestic domain.• A simple identity is all about simplicity seeking, thrift, green yet mercurial tourists will hold tourism business and brands accountable. In a world of scarcity of resources this scenario becomes the norm. Source: Tomorrow’s Tourist ‘Simple Identity,’ 2009 http://www.tomorrowstourist.com/simple_identity.php
  141. 141. Market Pain Points
  142. 142. Market Pain Points • Research on passenger dissatisfaction reflects the obvious issues that make air travel difficult. Three main areas represent the majority of passenger complaints: service disruptions, long check-in lines and baggage issues. Through the adoption of new communication techniques and internal systems that take advantage of advanced technology and shared information, airlines and airports can improve their delivery of services focusing on these three primary passenger pain points. • Airlines and airports are challenged with updating their operational systems to eliminate unnecessary manual step whilst interconnecting existing information silos to better manage the entire passenger experience. Integration between Departure Control Systems (DCS), Passenger Service Systems (PSS), Baggage Reconciliation Systems (BRS), and airport services can provide improved passenger processing. Delivering services on advanced mobile devices will help all entities be more efficient and operate with lower costs.Source: Amadeus, 2011 http://www.amadeus.com/airlineIT/navigating-the-airport-of-tomorrow/docs/Amadeus-Navigating-the-Airport-Of-Tomorrow-2011-EN.pdf
  143. 143. Market Pain Points
  144. 144. What Passengers Want• As a result of social media-inspired discussion, and with the assistance of London City Airport‘s sales director, Bernard A. Lavelle, Future Travel Experience reveals the views of passengers themselves on what they really want from the airport of the future.• As outlined in the chart, the aspect that can most improve the passenger experience on the ground is high-quality signage, communications and staff, with almost a third of all respondents highlighting this as a vital passenger requirement.• The second most common request was free Wi-Fi in the terminal building, while improved facilities, processing and queues, and an enhanced security process are also prominent on the passenger wish list. Airport layout was also identified as an area that can make a telling difference to the overall passenger experience. Source: Future Travel Experience, May 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/05/what-do-passengers-really-want/
  145. 145. What Passengers WantSource: Future Travel Experience , May 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/05/what-do-passengers-really-want/
  146. 146. EmergingCustomers
  147. 147. Tracking the rise of the middle class across the BRICs and N-11:Share of population with incomes between $6,000 and $30,000 in PPP terms (Goldman Sachs) 2009 (%) 2015 (%) 2025 (%) 2040 (%) Brazil 46 52 59 57 Russia 71 71 56 29 India 6 16 46 89 China 37 59 75 53 Korea 67 46 23 7 Bangladesh 0 1 5 38 Egypt 39 57 84 82 Indonesia 16 29 57 87 Iran 70 77 73 41 Mexico 61 65 65 49 Nigeria 6 9 18 42 Pakistan 9 13 22 49 Philippines 15 23 40 69 Turkey 79 81 70 35 Vietnam 7 21 51 84 Source: Goldman Sachs, August 2009 http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/demographic-change/power-of-purse-doc.pdf
  148. 148. Primed for More TravelSource: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2010-2029, December 2010http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/files/brochures_publications/Global_Market_Forecast/Airbus_Global_Market_Forecast_-_2010-2029.pdf
  149. 149. Source: Airbus 2009 http://www.airbus.com/en/gmf2009/appli.htm?onglet=&page=
  150. 150. Online bookings in Asia-Pacific, 2008 and 2011 2008 2011Australia / New Zealand $6.2B $10.9BChina $6.9B $13BIndia $3.1B $5.5BJapan $11.5B $17.7B Source: PhoCusWright Source: PhocusWright cited by Travel Weekly ‘China, India will lead regions online bookings boom’ January 2010 http://www.travelweekly.com/article3_ektid209470.aspx
  151. 151. China consumer report• By the year 2020, China will have a population of more than 1.4 billion people that will make up a significant portion in the worlds consumer market.• The annual disposable income of Chinese consumers is forecasted to increase to 65.4 billion Yuan (US$9.57 billion) by 2020 compared with 15 billion Yuan (US$2.19) in 2008.• The National Bureau of Statistics of China announced that the country would be considered a moderately affluent society by 2020, if development trends since the year 2000 continue. The estimate was made taking into account progress in the fields of the economy, social harmony, quality of life, democracy and law enforcement, culture and education, as well as resources and the environment.• Zheng Xinli, Vice-Minister of the Communist Partys central policy research office, said that taking price changes into account, 55% of the population will be middle class by 2020, with 78% of city dwellers and 30% of those in rural areas reaching that status.• Middle class is currently defined as having an annual household income of between RMB60,000 (US$8,700) and RMB200,000 (US$29,215). In 2008 prices, the annual disposable income per household will be RMB98,956 (US$14,900) in 2020. Source: Euromonitor 2009 http://www.euromonitor.com/Chinese_consumers_in_2020_A_look_into_the_future
  152. 152. China and India entering era of travel • Dun Jidong, spokesman for the China Travel Service notes that GDP per capita has hit $3,000 in China, ‗…a level that industry experts agree sends a signal that the country is entering a stage of explosive growth in travel consumption.‘ (1) Share of population with incomes between $6,000 and $30,000 (PPP terms) (2) 2009 (%) 2015 (%) 2025 (%) 2040 (%) Brazil 46 52 59 57 Russia 71 71 56 29 India 6 16 46 89 China 37 59 75 53 Source: (1) China Daily January 2010 http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-01/15/content_9323567.htm Source (2): Goldman Sachs, August 2009 http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/demographic-change/power-of-purse-doc.pdf
  153. 153. Source: Goldman Sachs ‘Is this the ‘BRICs Decade’?’ May 2010http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/brics-decade-doc.pdf
  154. 154. AviationIndustryOutlook
  155. 155. International Passengers in 2014 Source: IATA 2010, Markets in 2014 http://www.iata.org/ps/publications/Documents/Example%20-%20Projected%20Top%2010%20International%20Markets%20in%202014.pdf
  156. 156. Freight in 2014Source: IATA 2010, Markets in 2014http://www.iata.org/ps/publications/Documents/Example%20-%20Projected%20Top%2010%20International%20Markets%20in%202014.pdf
  157. 157. Aviation in 2029Source: Airbus Global Market Forecast 2010-2029, December 2010http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/files/brochures_publications/Global_Market_Forecast/Airbus_Global_Market_Forecast_-_2010-2029.pdf
  158. 158. Future Demand• Passenger air traffic is forecast to double by 2030 as 12 billion of us take to the skies. So what will the massive airports of the future look like?• One theory being discussed is that the future city will be an ―aerotropolis‖, with the airport at its heart rather than stationed far away from the centre – important if the city is to connect effectively to the global economy. In much of the western world, airports were developed years ago, when air travel was a luxury form of transport for the privileged. Now, of course, it‘s a mode of mass traffic, requiring different capacity solutions.• Songdo, South Korea, is an example of a city built from scratch at a cost of $40 billion with an airport in the centre.• Dubai is rapidly expanding its airport for A380 traffic, where first-class passengers on the building‘s upper level will be able to transfer direct to the upper level of the A380 aircraft. Source: TTG Nordic, 2011 http://www.ttgnordic.com/news/item/429-a-look-at-the-super-airports-of-the-future
  159. 159. Future Demand• Nearby in Dubai, another gigantic airport, Al-Maktoum International, will eventually have five runways and enough capacity to make it double the size of the biggest airport around today. The first runway is already operational for cargo and passengers will be able to fly there by the end of 2011.• But developers are wary of building a future airport that is too big, creating long distances for passengers to walk between flights and concerns over the logistics and security of having large numbers of people crammed together. The key to this is to arrange connecting transport links such as trains or cars to be as close as possible to the plane.• In the Middle East there seems to be an airport capacity race. In Europe, it‘s the contrary; it is extremely difficult for many airports to develop enough capacity to handle the forthcoming explosion in air travel. Projects like Berlin Brandenburg Airport, due to open in 2012, are few and far between. China, by contrast, plans to build 78 new airports by 2020. In Europe, there are plans for five new airports by 2030. Source: TTG Nordic, 2011 http://www.ttgnordic.com/news/item/429-a-look-at-the-super-airports-of-the-future
  160. 160. IATA Launches Vision 2050• The International Air Transport Association (IATA) called on industry leaders to look beyond the crisis that buffeted the air transport industry over the last decade and to strategically define a sustainable future.• Giovanni Bisignani, IATA‘s Director General and CEO, outlined his vision for aviation in 2050. ―We will be very near to zero accidents. We will emit half the carbon. We will have eliminated queues with integrated systems ensuring security as we process more passengers. We will operate with almost no delays in globally united skies. We will share costs and profits equitably across the value chain. We will be a consolidated industry of a dozen global brands supported by regional and niche players. And we will deliver value to investors.‖ Source: IATA, June 2010 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2010-06-07-02.aspx
  161. 161. IATA Launches Vision 2050• ―In just over a decade, I can see $100 billion in industry profits on revenues of $1 trillion. As we move towards 2050, this 10% margin will become even more robust. This is not just a crazy dream. Before the recession, at least a dozen IATA members already had 10% margins. We must make this a much broader reality. Change in all areas is possible. This vision—including sustainable profitability—can be our future,‖ said Bisignani.• Bisignani‘s vision for 2050 rests on four cornerstones of change: – Profitability – Infrastructure – Powering the industry – Customer Source: IATA, June 2010 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2010-06-07-02.aspx
  162. 162. IATA Launches Vision 2050• Profitability: ―Efficiency gains never make it to the bottom line because airlines are deprived of the commercial freedom to operate their businesses like a normal business. Our poor profitability makes every shock a fight for survival,‖ said Bisignani. He laid the blame on the industry‘s hyper fragmentation with 1061 airlines as a result of the bilateral system which regulates the global aviation industry. The restrictions on international capital prevent consolidation across borders. ―The restrictions of the bilateral system are a dam that holds us back. It is time for that dam to burst. Governments must act responsibly to ensure safety, security, and a level playing field. And airlines need the freedom to build efficiencies across borders, better serve their customers, and achieve sustainable profits to fund growth and innovation,‖ said Bisignani. Source: IATA, June 2010 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2010-06-07-02.aspx
  163. 163. IATA Launches Vision 2050• Infrastructure: ―Infrastructure must be reshaped around the needs of airlines—the core of the industry‘s value chain. Airports should compete for airline business based on efficiency. Commercial revenues will drive their business. I can see airports paying airlines to bring shoppers and airport revenues funding the air traffic management system,‖ said Bisignani.• Air traffic management must also change. ―I can see ten global air navigation service providers (ANSPs) replacing the current 180 at half the cost,‖ said Bisignani. The Single European Sky (SES) would be the first of the ten global ANSPs. ―But we need real leadership to replace the uncoordinated bureaucratic mess that Europe is today,‖ said Bisignani, pleading for a date to achieve the $6.5 billion (EUR 5 billion) cost savings that the SES promises. ―After 20 years of waiting, we are fed up. Heads of governments must set a date and deliver,‖ said Bisignani. Source: IATA, June 2010 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2010-06-07-02.aspx
  164. 164. IATA Launches Vision 2050• Powering the Industry: ―Today‘s jet fuel cannot sustain air transport in the long-term. We must find a sustainable alternative and our most promising opportunity is bio fuels, which have the potential to reduce our carbon footprint by up to 80%,‖ said Bisignani. After successful testing by airlines, certification is expected within a year. Bisignani urged greater support from governments. ―Too often governments are only committed to environment when it means grabbing cash. Governments should be investing in biofuels and green technologies. Local production with jatropha, camelina, algae, or even urban waste will open up economic opportunities in virtually any location. Not only will this secure a future power source for our industry, this will also break the tyranny of oil and drive economic development in all parts of the world. Source: IATA, June 2010 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2010-06-07-02.aspx
  165. 165. IATA Launches Vision 2050• The Customer: ―The customer is at the center of our future vision. By 2050, we will have 16 billion travelers and handle 400 million tonnes of cargo. In just a couple of decades, we will see the middle class nearly triple from the 1.3 billion today to 3.5 billion people—a quarter of which will be in India and China. Accommodating that growth efficiently will be a challenge for all parts of the value chain—airports, air navigation service providers, manufacturers and governments. The solution must be strategic and aligned,‖ said Bisignani.• Bisignani noted that the air transport industry must engage its 2.4 billion passengers to change government‘s ―over-regulate and under-appreciate‖ attitude. ―To turn our customers into industry activists, we must improve the value proposition of price, speed, and quality. We have reduced the price of flying by 40% since deregulation. But as we made travel more accessible, speed and quality suffered. The infrastructure has not kept pace, resulting in delays both in the air and on the ground. New security procedures created new hassles. Our challenge is to gain the support of customers in demanding change from the governments,‖ said Bisignani. Source: IATA, June 2010 http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/pages/2010-06-07-02.aspx
  166. 166. EUROCONTROL: Long Term Forecast• Future air traffic will be limited by capacity at the airports, 0.7-5.0 million flights will not be accommodated in 2030, 5%-19% of the demand. The congestion is now lower than in the forecast two years ago. The recent drop in traffic has given the system some extra years to react and adapt but once the limits are reached the number of unaccommodated flights increases quickly. Congested airports create pressure on the flow of operations in the network and will exacerbate delays.• Even with airport capacity restrictions airports will grow. In 2030, there will be 13-34 airports as big as the top 7 are now. Some of the faster growing East-European airports will join the top 25. European hubs will be faced with competition from hubs outside Europe, primarily in the Middle-East. Source: EuroControl, 2010 http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gallery/content/public/forecasts/Doc415-LTF10-Report-Vol1.pdf
  167. 167. EUROCONTROL: Long Term Forecast Source: Eurocontrol, 2010 http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gallery/content/public/forecasts/Doc415-LTF10-Report-Vol1.pdf
  168. 168. EUROCONTROL: Long Term ForecastSource: EuroControl, 2010 http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gallery/content/public/forecasts/Doc415-LTF10-Report-Vol1.pdf
  169. 169. Source: EuroControl, 2010 http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/gallery/content/public/forecasts/Doc415-LTF10-Report-Vol1.pdf
  170. 170. Visions ofTomorrow’s Airport
  171. 171. Exploring the Airport of 2030• The importance of generating non-aeronautical revenue streams has also had a major impact on the recent developments in the aviation sector, and Alan Lamond, aviation director, Pascall + Watson Architects, explained that this will continue to impact on future airport models. He said: ―We are seeing increased commercialisation of airports and a realisation that you have to exploit the opportunities presented, and this is done in Western airports through very intensive retailing. What is increasingly becoming clear is that, for businesses, there‘s a distinct commercial advantage in being based near an international airport. This means that the space around the airport becomes far more valuable.‖ Source: Airport Business, July 2010 http://www.airport-business.com/2010/07/exploring-the-airport-of-2030/
  172. 172. Siemens Airport Lab• Inside Siemens airy, 90,000-square-foot glass and steel structure in Germany is an entire infrastructure of an airport, minus only the planes, runways and control tower.• Nearly every aspect of airport operations is tested and developed here, from high-tech baggage handling and fleet-management systems to wireless passenger check-in and 3-D security.• The airport center, built in 2005, houses real-time, check-in counters, a parking guidance system, a control center and a luggage conveyor with belt and tray conveyors stretching more than 6,000 feet. The baggage system can handle 30 million pieces of luggage per year. (In Germany, only Munich and Frankfurt airports have larger systems.)• On the passenger side of the terminal, a prototype system is being fine- tuned that would allow travelers to check in using only their mobile phones. Once a passenger makes a phone call to check in, the system then sends back a bar code that displays on the mobile phones screen. Special readers at the airport then scan and print out boarding passes. Source: ABC News, May 2010 http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/siemens-dreams-airport-future-germany/story?id=10629236
  173. 173. Siemens Airport Lab• Also being tested in the lab are new fingerprint and facial-recognition systems as Siemens targets the ever-expanding need for better security at airports everywhere.• Iris scans, fingerprint-based IDs and 3-D face digitization are all being tested here as part of the companys development of cutting-edge recognition and security systems.• One area developed by Siemens that is already being employed at airports from Seoul to Denver is a baggage system that employs radio-frequency identification or RFID technology.• The RFID tags are applied directly to baggage and are a much more efficient way of identification and tracking luggage using radio waves.• More than 3.1 million missing baggage reports were filed in the United States alone in 2009, according to the Air Travel Consumer Report produced by the U.S. Department of Transportation. Source: ABC News, May 2010 http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/siemens-dreams-airport-future-germany/story?id=10629236
  174. 174. Siemens Airport Lab• Siemens says the radio wave technology will eventually replace bar-code tracking systems now employed at many airports because it allows bags to be instantly updated with changes to a passengers flight or security status. That should drastically lower the risk of the dreaded lost luggage nightmare.• From check-in to loading on an aircraft it allows more useful data to travel along with the bag.• Airport systems make up about 2 percent of the companys $100.7 billion annual revenue. But that number is expected to rise as the need for better airport technology surges along with the number of air travelers. Source: ABC News, May 2010 http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/siemens-dreams-airport-future-germany/story?id=10629236
  175. 175. Visions of the Future• EADS Innovation Works (IW), the corporate network of research centres of EADS, and Altran, an international advanced engineering and innovation consulting group, are jointly working on projects supporting the long-term evolution of the air transport industry.• The goal of a recent study was to create revolutionary airport concepts. EADS IW and Altran organised workshops with representatives of airlines, airports, air traffic management and aircraft manufacturers as well as representatives of other transport sectors.• It was recognised that, for short and medium flights, future passengers experience will play a significant role in the competition between aviation and high-speed rail transport.• This research contributes to the goals set forth in the European Commissions report Flightpath 2050 - Europes Vision for Aviation, whose target is for 90% of travellers in Europe to be able to complete their journey, door to door, within four hours. Source: Airport Business, June 2011 http://www.airportbusiness.com/online/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=45675
  176. 176. Visions of the Future• Intermodal transfers will be seamless and final destinations are to be reached smoothly, predictably and on time while accommodating the increasing demand for air travel. These concepts put passengers at the heart of the air transport system. The result is a passenger-friendly experience and lean processes which we have labeled Friend- Lean Airport of the Future, said Guy Gallic, head of the Technical Capability Centre Innovative Concepts and Scenarios at EADS IW. In future, we will speak not only about infrastructure but about an extended door-to door experience.• The airport terminal will become a lean step in the journey towards co-modal and connected travel, explained Sebastien Renouard, Executive Director AeroSpace & Defence International at Altran.• On an average day in 2010, 6.5 million passengers flew an average of 2,000km on one of 14,000 commercial jets.• By 2050, the number of passengers per day will increase to roughly 44 million globally. Beyond 2040, the study aimed to find revolutionary airport concepts capable of handling 25-100 million passengers per year. Source: Airport Business, June 2011 http://www.airportbusiness.com/online/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=45675
  177. 177. Eye to the Sky
  178. 178. Visions of the Future• The following three concept from EADSs were selected and elaborated in more detail.• The Eye to the Sky concept.• The aircraft traffic area is located above the terminals, while the flow of passengers through the terminals to their planes is vertical. From arriving at the airport to reaching their seats on the plane, passengers use spiral ramps that link every level of the airport. This concept focuses not only on infrastructural design but also on solutions for guiding passengers through an augmented reality information system. A mobile device would connect to the airport network and act as a portable personal guide to help people find their way at the airport. Lean security systems based on new technologies would also be embedded. Source: Airport Business, June 2011 http://www.airportbusiness.com/online/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=45675
  179. 179. Visions of the Future• The Passenger Airport Shuttles (PAS) concept.• With a predicted time of at most seven minutes to get from anywhere in the airport to any Skygate, passengers can choose to spend more time at the airports central terminal facilities or they can arrive at the airport less than 10 minutes before departure and still catch their flight.• In this decentralised approach, passengers are moved in Passenger Airport Shuttle vehicles which are guided by an automated central airport control system. An identification function ensures that passengers and their travel data are recognised by the control system as soon as they board, and the vehicle then offers them a transportation and information service dedicated to their specific needs. Aircraft will be docked to a Skygate, a minimal building that forms the interface between the aircraft and the PAS. Baggage will be handled at the Skygate, reducing the baggage deposition and retrieval times to a minimum. Source: Airport Business, June 2011 http://www.airportbusiness.com/online/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=45675
  180. 180. Visions of the Future• The Extended Airport concept• The Extended Airport concept addresses the vision of providing a door-to- door travel service in the literal sense by extending the transportation service so that passengers (or just their luggage) are picked up at their home or office. In this vision, air transport and airports are fully integrated with other transport modes. The proper competition and collaboration between modes of transport are ensured by a transport planner on the user interface where passengers can plan their trips. It will take many revolutions in the air transport sector to create solutions that deliver on the ambitious objectives set forth by the European Commissions FlightPath 2050. Source: Airport Business, June 2011 http://www.airportbusiness.com/online/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=45675
  181. 181. User Friendly Terminals • Munich Airport‘s new InfoGates allow passengers to obtain quick and detailed information to help them navigate around the terminal. • Passengers using the InfoGate can simply push a button, which connects them immediately to an information service representative via videoconference. • Six InfoGates are already operational in the public and non-public areas of the airport, and 17 Interactive InfoGates are positioned at key crossroads throughout the terminals. • These consist of touch-screens mounted on pillars, offering a full range of information on services, shopping and dining at the airport.Source: Future Travel Experience, June 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/06/munich-airports-infogates-offer-improved-wayfinding/
  182. 182. Future of Airports• David Holm, Principal Architect, Woodhead, explained that retail, commercial, advertising and other forms of revenue generation will be crucial within the development of terminals of the future. Not only do these forms of commerce provide funding incomes, they also play a key role in crafting the unique character of the place and in enhancing the ―total journey experience‖. ―It is our design view that retail and commercial developments and strategies must be incorporated at the earliest phases of project planning. In this way, the form of a new project is designed from the inside out in harmony with the outside in pressure applied by the equally crucial requirements of exterior aircraft planning,‖ he said.• At the Check-In 2010 Conference in Las Vegas, Holm referred to four key themes:Source: Future Travel Experience, March 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/03/the-airport-of-the-future-2020-thinking/
  183. 183. Future of Airports• Urban Catalyst – ―Innovative civic and transport leaders are now seeing airports and their surrounding and supporting infrastructure, often referred to as airport cities, as the catalysts of urban growth and often regeneration; a key part of the ‗c21st polycity concept‘.‖• Civic Buildings – ―The contemporary airport within the ‗c21st polycity‘ is today‘s crossroads celebrating trade and community gathering. As such the urban structure and the built forms of the airport must stand as civic buildings respected by the community and designed with a sense of community, flexibility and longevity.‖Source: Future Travel Experience, March 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/03/the-airport-of-the-future-2020-thinking/
  184. 184. Future of Airports• Sense of Place – ―Our design projects endeavour to make the subtle connection between context, place making and built form in order to weave our built form into the community within which it exists.‖• Total Journey Experience – ―The transport node, whether it be a domestic or international airport or multi-modal station, has existed as an evolutionary control at the edges of regions or borders. As such the node has performed a variety of functions, ranging from service industries to authority procedures. This variety of stakeholders has many functions to address, though all conjoined represent the overall brand and experience of the transport node.‖• It appears clear that a consistent approach towards design provides the passenger with a coherent total journey experience throughout their incoming and outgoing experiences as a traveller.Source: Future Travel Experience, March 2011 http://www.futuretravelexperience.com/2011/03/the-airport-of-the-future-2020-thinking/
  185. 185. Exploring the Airport of 2030• The impact of a master plan, which often outlines a blueprint for the airport with a vision for the next two decades or more, is the most integral part of the planning process and can often provide an idea of how airports will continue to develop in the mid-to-long-term.• Curtis Fentress, principal-in-charge of design, Fentress Architects, said: ―With master plans you almost need a crystal ball. You have to design for flexibility, which can accommodate for future needs even though you don‘t know what these will be. Flexibility really is key and I think that because of this, you will see more airports with column-free buildings. At LAX we‘ve designed large, column-free buildings so that we‘re completely flexible for any future developments. This is even something that you can see in the design of Denver International Airport, which has just celebrated its 15th birthday.‖ Source: Airport Business, July 2010 http://www.airport-business.com/2010/07/exploring-the-airport-of-2030/
  186. 186. Background Note The Intelligent Networked Airport • A passenger-sensing, self-organising unified network to track the location of every passenger and bag in the terminal will feature in future airports. • It‘s not much fun sitting in an airport waiting for a plane. But might it be less of a chore if you could download your in-flight films in the departure lounge? Might you even pay for the service? If you find that airport bars usually serve the best antidotes to tedium, would you be glad to know that a nearby display can detect your presence, prompt you when your gate number changes and provide clear directions to it at drinking-up-and-boarding time? • It‘s being developed by scientists from the University of Cambridge, University College London, and the University of Leeds. The idea is to tidy up the tangle of wired and wireless networks used in most modern airports by installing a single infrastructure that can handle GSM, 3G, Wi-Fi and RFID communications, as well as locating every person and piece of baggage in the building. Source: The Institution of Engineering and Technology, July 6th 2009 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/magazine/14searchgrimshawside-t.html
  187. 187. Background Note The Intelligent Networked Airport • TINA - The intelligent networked airport • ―For instance, can we solve problems like bags being in one place but the passenger not showing up, or a passenger being on an airplane and not knowing where their bags are?‖ asks Jon Crowcroft, Marconi professor of communications systems at the Cambridge University Computer Laboratory. • Organising a building‘s network infrastructure in this way could also create opportunities for airport operators to generate money. • ―In an airport environment, where in-building communications systems [such as Wi- Fi] are often used to generate revenue for the airport operator, the adoption of such a technology could lead to some interesting innovation with regard to the commercial models under which airports operate,‖ says Justin Trevan, a consultant at the communications division of Arup - an engineering consultancy well known for its work on airports, including Heathrow‘s Terminal 5 and Dubai International Airport. Source: The Institution of Engineering and Technology, July 6th 2009 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/magazine/14searchgrimshawside-t.html
  188. 188. Background Note The Intelligent Networked Airport • To track people and assets, researchers are looking at both active and passive RFID tags, locating the active tags by comparing the different time delays of the transmitted signals as they arrive at neighbouring antenna units, which are typically positioned tens of metres apart. • Being battery-powered and expensive, active RFID tags would only be suitable where they could be re-used and recharged, such as when issued to members of staff or applied to airport vehicles. In contrast, passive RFID tags could be printed cheaply on disposable paper boarding cards or luggage labels, given to every passenger and attached to each of their bags. In Hong Kong airport, luggage is already labelled with bar-coded passive RFID tags that are read (by conventional short-range means) with two antennas placed either side of the luggage conveyer belt. Source: The Institution of Engineering and Technology, July 6th 2009 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/magazine/14searchgrimshawside-t.html
  189. 189. Background Note The Intelligent Networked Airport • Zinwave application • A ‗long-range‘ passive RFID sensing scheme is novel and technically difficult. • However, Sithamparanathan Sabesan, Michael Crisp, Richard Penty and Ian White at the University of Cambridge‘s department of engineering, have found a way to reduce the fading and improve the accuracy of RSSI techniques, using an optimised Zinwave radio-over-fibre hub with multiple antennas. • ―The first challenge was getting the range up to 20m. The second, which we‘re still working on, is the resolution at that range. We‘ve got the location accuracy down to around 2m, but we‘d like to do better,‖ said Professor White, head of photonics research in the electrical division of the department of engineering at Cambridge. • Tracking every single passenger anywhere in the building all the time may not be feasible with passive RFID tags. But the technology could indicate if a passenger has moved from one space to another, maybe from a lounge to a bar, which is enough to target a message to a nearby display, page them, or send someone to find them. Source: The Institution of Engineering and Technology, July 6th 2009 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/magazine/14searchgrimshawside-t.html
  190. 190. Background Note The Intelligent Networked Airport • Network architecture specifications • The basic TINA network architecture is being designed to support a terminal with typically 1,000 fixed and 500 mobile video cameras (demanding 10Gbit/s of bandwidth); 500 displays (10Gbit/s); 500 biometric scanners (10Gbit/s); private and public fixed and wireless LAN (20Gbit/s); cellular services (10Gbit/s); TETRA and private radio (500Mbit/s); as well as passive RFID (300Gbit/s) and active RFID (5Gbit/s). These figures, which include projections for future demand, are based on input from BAA and other companies involved with the network installations in Heathrow Terminals 4 and 5. • The software tool can model and simulate passenger flow, radio propagation delays, optimum antenna position, and bandwidth requirements to give a top-down picture of how the network might perform under various circumstances. • In this way, designers can better understand how the flow of people in indoor spaces, traffic demands and energy consumption constraints might influence different architectures. Source: The Institution of Engineering and Technology, July 6th 2009 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/14/magazine/14searchgrimshawside-t.html
  191. 191. Flexible Terminals
  192. 192. Flexible Terminals • An Austrian company, TMT, has installed a mobile passenger terminal at Switzerland‘s Geneva Airport. It is designed as a flexible structure, to expand and contract airport capacity, depending on demand. With a growing number of companies providing such facilities – driven by the increasing seasonality of flight operations and the continuing lack of available finance – is the future going to be "temporary and mobile"? Could this be the ultimate low-cost terminal? • TMT‘s management stated the terminal can be installed and dismantled within a week.Source: Centre for Aviation, February 2011http://www.centreforaviation.com/news/2011/02/14/upwardly-mobile--airport-terminals-that-match-the-seasonal-nature-of-the-airline-business/page1
  193. 193. Flexible Terminals• Thomas Melcher, managing director and inventor of TMT The Mobile Terminal - Melcher has ambitious plans for TMT The Mobile Terminal, particularly in emerging markets in Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America. ―In the next three years, we are targeting 20 to 25 mobile terminals worldwide,‖ he said.• Indeed, the effectiveness of the terminal solution during major events in an airport‘s catchment area means discussions are already underway with the Russian market with regards to the 2014 Winter Olympics, which take place in Sochi, and the 2012 European Football Championships in Poland and Ukraine. TMT The Mobile Terminal is also exploring the possibility of renting its terminal solutions for short-term periods. Source: Airport Business, April 2011 http://www.airport-business.com/2011/04/first-tmt-the-mobile-terminal-opened-at-geneva-airport/
  194. 194. The ‘Airport City’• This geographical advantage has led to the rapid rise of the ‗airport city‘ and, according to Curtis Fentress, principal-in-charge of design, Fentress Architects, this is likely to become an increasing trend in years to come.• ―I think you will see more of the ‗airport city‘,‖ he explained. ―In the Middle East, you see a tremendous surge in passenger numbers and there is then a need for hotels and other services and this is something that we may see elsewhere in the next 20 years. Airports will become more multi-modal and the construction of office buildings, conference buildings, air freight facilities, and even the likes of beauty salons within the actual airport are things that are already becoming more widespread.‖• With environmental sustainability now firmly established toward the very top of the list of priorities within the field of airport architecture, the need to explore the use of ‗green‘ energy is more evident than ever before. Source: Airport Business, July 2010 http://www.airport-business.com/2010/07/exploring-the-airport-of-2030/
  195. 195. Airport Cities: Manchester
  196. 196. Airport Cities: Manchester • More than 10,000 jobs could be created around Manchester Airport when it is turned into a ‗mini city‘. • The £400m Airport City project was given the green light after the government named it as one of its first Enterprise Zones. • It is one of 21 designated areas nationwide that will offer tax breaks for businesses, simplified planning rules and super-fast broadband as part of plans to grow local economies and jobs by removing barriers for new companies. • Money raised from discounted business rates in the area will be available to re-invest in Greater Manchester‘s redevelopment. • Airport bosses say the Enterprise Zone status means they can start immediately on Airport City, which is expected to bring 10,500 full time jobs – 13,000 in total – over the next 10 to 15 years. A 60-acre site, centred around Manchester Business Park to the north of the airport, will introduce new offices, hotels, shops and manufacturing space.Source: Manchester Evening News, March 2011 http://menmedia.co.uk/manchestereveningnews/news/s/1416306_manchester-airport-enterprise-zone-will-generate-mini-city-with-10500-jobs
  197. 197. Airlines and Aircraft Futures
  198. 198. Impact of Consolidation
  199. 199. Impact of Consolidation• The airline industry continues its consolidation trend: in Europe things started with the Air France-KLM merger in 2004, soon followed by Lufthansa-Swiss.• The action continues with SN Brussels, BMI and Austrian taken over by Lufthansa, Air France-KLM buying a significant stake in Alitalia and getting full control of the Dutch leisure and cargo airline Martinair and FlyVLM.• British Airways and Iberia have completed a merger.• Airlines are likely to continue consolidating aligning their products for their passengers: pricing, loyalty programs, joint check-in areas.
  200. 200. Shifting the Goalposts
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×