4. What makes a market
uncertain is the fact
that those supply and
demand forces are
uncertain.
5. While the stock market
performs well when
averaged over 100
years, there were massive
crashes and booms strung
throughout that history.
6. If you are young, then
you can afford to ride
the waves as they go up
and down.
7. If you are nearing or in
retirement now, then
you can’t afford to find
yourself in another
recession with another
8 year recovery.
8. With less than one third of
the stock market owned by
individuals, we are at the
mercy to the whims of how
the big players behave. I
don’t pretend to
understand their agenda.
9. And I also don’t pretend
that the stock market is
a truly free market that
is not manipulated.
10. It might not be illegally
manipulated, but when big
corporations own two
thirds of the market, they
can surely create their
own supply and demands
forces at will.
25. Let me start by explaining
that the bulk food market is
an international market, so
supply and demand is not
only coming from domestic
pressure
26. This fact even further
exacerbates the pressures
that constantly push prices
up.
27. Let’s look at what drives
demand:
1. Population
2. Eating Habits
3. The Nature of
Necessity
28. 1. Population: The steady
growth of population directly
affects the steadily growing
demand for food.
Year
World
Population
%
change
US
Population
%
change
1950 2,557,628,654 151,868,000
1960 3,042,828,380 19% 179,979,000 19%
1970 3,712,338,708 22% 203,984,000 13%
1980 4,450,929,761 20% 227,224,681 11%
1990 5,287,869,228 19% 249,622,814 10%
2000 6,090,319,399 15% 282,162,411 13%
2010 6,866,054,281 13% 309,326,225 10%
29. 2. Eating habits:
When the US economy
goes into deep recession,
people still find the money
to eat well, go out to eat,
and watch movies.
30. When other investments
are tanking (because
consumers are just not
buying any more
cars, for example) The
demand for food
actually increases
31. Consumers alleviate the
stress of the economy by
eating more, and they also
horde and save food out of
fear. Both behaviors create
a stronger demand in
economic downturns.
32. 3. The Nature of
Necessity:
It’s just a simple fact
that everyone needs to
eat every day.
33. If you just think about
it, this is one of the
most ideal forces that
could drive a market.
34. All other industries have
consumers with erratic
behaviors. All of them. And
most industries have
manufacturers and
distributors with changing
performance.
35. From real estate, to
technology, to
clothing, to
automobiles, to oil and
gas. Demand simply
changes based on many
different factors.
36. Now let’s look at what
drives supply.
1. Land
2. Harvest Yields/ Failures
3. Reserves (the BIG one)
37. 1. Land
The data on the land
shows that even though
supply is steadily
growing, the arable land
in the US is not.
38. Arable land per capita is the
amount of farm land available
for each person in a country. It
is shrinking all over the world
at an alarming rate.
39. India is one of the largest
exporters of rice in the
world, this 45% drop in
arable land has
significantly contributed to
the huge jump in rice
prices.
40. Some people have accused
the arable land per capita
data to be only a reflection of
increased population.
41. Here are the actual
harvested acres in the US
per the USDA.
Acreage of US Principle Crops
Year
Harvested
Acres
%
Change
1950 336,437
1960 315,818 -6.1%
1970 283,096 -10.4%
1980 340,103 20.1%
1990 307,768 -9.5%
2000 307,955 0.1%
2010 304,646 -1.1%
2013 303,755 -0.3%
Amount of farm
land has mostly
gone down while
demand has
been steadily
rising.
42. 2. Harvest Yields/ Failures
I will show you a chart of the
actual harvest of 5 bulk foods
over the past 23 years. Take a
look at the total increase at the
bottom. With population
growing about 1% a year a 23
year crop yield increase should
be at least 23%
44. You can see in some years
all the crops did poorly when
there was widespread
drought, and sometimes only
one crop would fail due to
blight, or a regional problem.
45. This data shows you the
dramatic disconnect between
harvest yields and demand for
food.
Farmers are just not able to
produce enough to keep up.
46. Which bring us to the third
force on the supply:
3. Reserves
These are extra food stores
that are not consumed but
saved for later when a future
harvest is low.
47. Going back as far as recorded
history, we have read about
civilizations storing up their
food for their own security. It is
basic wisdom to store up like
the ants.
48. What does the US do with
that ancient wisdom?
Our government completely
ignores it!
49. The modern concept of
Strategic Food Reserves was
first proposed in the 30’s, then
further established by
president Roosevelt. Then, in
2007 the US government has
basically sold off its entire
food reserves with the ending
of the 2002 Farm bill.
50. The logic was that since
our food is sourced from
around the world we would
be able to rely on other
nations as our grain
reserves.
51. The problem with this strategy
is that Cargill, our
international food giant, has
been shaping the landscape so
that each region ―monocrops‖
the land with the crop it is
best suited to grow. So each
region has it’s specialty.
52. In a perfect world, having a
region specialize in one crop
makes the price go down and
yields go up. But, if a drought
or blight hits that region, there
are no other regions growing
the same crop and that one
crop supply world-wide suffers
drastically.
53. Here is how Cargill puts it:
"There is a mistaken belief that the
greatest agricultural need in the
developing world is to develop the
capacity to grow food for local
consumption. That is misguided. . .
Countries should produce what they
produce best, and trade.‖
-Whitney MacMillan Chairman of Cargill
1995
54. So in 2007, all grain reserves
were consumed. And the US
government has yet to
reestablish any.
55. Then, serendipitously, durin
g the crash of 2008, our
Cargill, who privately owns
its own massive grain
reserves, shows a huge
profit while everyone else
drowns.
56. Here’s an except from an LA Times
article:
―Cargill, the largest private company in
the world, began its business in 1865—
with a grain silo. Today it is believed
that Cargill's global network of silos
store more grain than any other private
company…
57. But no one knows for sure because,
like the Chinese, Cargill executives
keep the amount of grain they buy,
sell and store a secret. In 2008, Cargill
parlayed its immense wheat holdings
into an 86% jump in profits on global
commodities exchanges…
58. Such windfalls during times of panic,
price hike and scarcity are not
surprising: Since the days of food
shortages in ancient Greece and
Rome, spikes in the price of bread
encourage grain bankers to hoard, not
bring more grain to market.‖
-LA Times 2012
59. Here is a link to the
whole article:
How to fight a food crisis,
by: Frederick Kaufman
60. Not only was Cargill
immensely profitable during
economic upheaval, but
they built their world-wide
empire on food.
61. To understand how big and
powerful this empire (that
started with a single grain
silo) truly is- They are the
only western company to
own an entire port in China
(Yangjiang).
62. They do business in 172
countries and employ over
80,000 people.
67. Let me re-iterate a simple fact
that you MUST understand:
The demand for ALL other
products and services in
America will ebb and flow with
the economy, except FOOD.
68. Now that you are more
familiar with how the
food market works let’s
look at price history.
69. The World Bank
This is the World Bank’s data on food prices
world-wide since 2000.
70. Yearly Price Increase of Food Eaten at Home
This chart is from Northwestern University. The way
you read it is by looking at where the line is for any
given year, if the line is above zero, then prices
increased by that percentage over the previous year’s
prices.
71. Yearly Price Increase of Food Eaten at Home
Notice 2002 is the only flat year (the yearly increase
is near zero). The red line is the 20 year average. It’s
right there with inflation, around 3%. Food prices have
just NOT gone down over 20 years according to
Northwestern University.
73. Let me explain this chart. Every year the price
of food goes up. The green bar is the average
rate of increase over the 10 year decade. 8%
is extremely high for the 70s, because if 8% is
the average, some years saw huge hikes, in
fact a couple years were over 20%!
75. They want you to see this:
(because they feel like it’s their job to keep
food affordable)
76. They also are showing you a chart that
visually goes down, yet the actual price of
food has been going up- every year. Anything
above 0% means it increased in price from the
previous year.
77. But look at the years down here on the last
bar, we are only 40% through the decade at
this point!
79. What would cause this to happen? Well in the
very same article, they describe what
happened in the 70s which made the prices
soar.
80. ―Considering the U.S. economy as a whole,
inflation for consumer goods, including food,
was abnormally high almost across the board
starting in 1973. This coincides with a major
depreciation of the U.S. dollar that took place
in the early 1970s and raised the cost of
imported goods. At the same time, a sharp
rise in fuel and energy prices resulted from
global shortages in supply, which had ripple
effects throughout the economy and took
many years to abate.‖
-USDA Article on Food Prices on April 07, 2014
81. Here’s the Link to see for yourself:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2014-
april/food-prices%E2%80%94taking-the-long-
term-view.aspx#.U2hc-4FdX84
82. Have we been facing a
depreciating dollar like they
did in the 70s?
83. Read an except from the
summary of a congressional
report:
The Depreciating Dollar: Economic
Effects and Policy Response
Craig K. Elwell
Specialist in Macroeconomic Policy
February 23, 2012
84. ―A depreciating currency could affect
several aspects of U.S. economic
performance. Possible effects include
increased net exports, decreased
international purchasing power, rising
commodity prices, and upward pressure
on interest rates; if the trend is
sustained, the United states may also
experience a reduction of external debt,
possible undermining of the dollar’s
reserve currency status, and an
elevated risk of a dollar crisis.‖
85. ―To give Congress the economic context
in which to view the dollar’s recent and
prospective movement, this report
analyzes the evolution of the exchange
rate since its peak in 2002. It examines
several factors that are likely to
influence the dollar’s medium-term path,
what effects a depreciating dollar could
have on the economy, and how
alternative policy measures that could
be taken by the Federal Reserve, the
Treasury, and the 112th Congress might
influence the dollar’s path.‖
91. I see a future for our nation
where the American people
have their own grain
reserves?
92. Is not right now, the perfect
time to get out of the stock
market? At the top, and diversify
whatever portion you deem
wise, and shift gears going into
this next season of a changing
economy?
93. The US is in great transition.
We are being pulled down
from being the international
power house to being an
international house mate.
94. Many of us have seen this
coming for a long time. And
the necessary ingredient of
this shift is the weakening of
the dollar.
95. And you just heard, straight
from both the USDA and a
congressional report, what
happens to food prices when the
dollar goes down.
Here’s the USDA’s quote again:
96. ―Considering the U.S. economy as a whole,
inflation for consumer goods, including food,
was abnormally high almost across the board
starting in 1973. This coincides with a major
depreciation of the U.S. dollar that took place
in the early 1970s and raised the cost of
imported goods. At the same time, a sharp
rise in fuel and energy prices resulted from
global shortages in supply, which had ripple
effects throughout the economy and took
many years to abate.‖
-USDA Article on Food Prices on April 07, 2014
97. Okay, Okay, now what if the
dollar doesn’t take a nose
dive?
98. I could be wrong about what
is coming around the corner.
And if I am wrong, I’m going
to show you how a ―business
as usual‖ picture looks for
the food market.
100. ―For most of the last two decades,
prices at both supermarkets and
restaurants may have moved up and
down on a monthly basis, but these
swings tended to smooth out into
modest yearly increases. As a
result, the all-food Consumer Price
Index (CPI) followed a fairly
predictable pattern of about 2-3
percent inflation each year from
1990 through 2005.‖
101. ―However, since 2006, a series of
interrelated factors—including
spikes in prices for food
commodities and energy, major
weather events, shocks to global
commodity markets, and the U.S.
economic recession and
subsequent recovery—have resulted
in annual changes in the all-food
CPI.‖
102. ―Food prices have also been rising
faster than in earlier years, and
food price inflation has easily
outpaced price inflation for many
other types of goods. Among major
consumer spending categories, only
prices for transportation, which
include a number of energy price
measures, and medical care have
risen faster than food prices.‖
103. Here is the article online:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-
waves/2013-august/price-inflation-
for-food-outpacing-many-other-
spending-
categories.aspx#.U2heRoFdX84
104. Now let’s look at some shocking
data from China. Because the bulk
food market is international, and
the supply and demand forces come
from world-wide importers and
exporters.
105. This is the World Bank’s data on food inflation
in China from 2010. Again, everything over
zero means the price went up that
percentage from the last year.
Bulk foods are
comprised of
commodities in
the vegetable and
bean categories.
106. Let’s get a bigger picture of what their prices
have been doing over the decades.
This data teaches us some very powerful
concepts.
107. Again, the blue line is showing inflation.
Everything about that dotted ―0% CPI‖ means
the price is increasing by that percentage
from the last year.
108. China obviously experiences significantly
higher food inflation than the US. The demand
simply drives prices through the roof!
109. This chart is communicating the correlation
between the population demand for food and
the sharp price spikes.
110. Farms are not factories, they
can’t just make more food.
Every single year they
always produce as much as
they possibly can. So an
increase in demand will
always brings an increase in
price, not an increase in
product.
111. Food truly is the most
worthy low-
risk, investment
available.
120. There is a nation-wide
trend away from
processed sugars,
driving the demand for
honey to all-time highs.
121. At the same time, there
is an unrelated shortage
of honey, that cannot be
remedied for many years
to come.
122. ―Global demand for honey
constantly exceeds supply,
and with bee colonies
mysteriously disappearing in
the US and Europe, pure honey
is becoming a valuable – and
expensive - commodity.‖
-the BBC
123. Did you know that people
who bought $100,000 of
bulk raw honey two years
ago, have $171,000 worth
of honey today?
124. Here are the current
values of investments in
different bulk foods if they
were purchased with
$100,000 back in August
2011.
125. Yellow Corn $121,000
Red Lentils $131,000
Pinto Beans $225,000
White Rice $157,000
Red Wheat $129,000
White Wheat $126,000
143. If each of these 3.7
million spent $3,000 on
food, that’s an $11.1
billion demand of
emergency food.
144. Besides the fact that fresh
food tastes much
better, preppers are
switching from freeze
dried food to bulk foods
because of these reasons:
145. What’s the average cost for a 2,000
calorie day?
Can my food stash appreciate in
value?
Can I purchase food with a
retirement account?
Can I sell my food decades later if
nothing happens?
How much nutrition is lost during
the preservation process?
Does the food have value in my
estate when I die?
Bulk
Food
$2.79
Yes
Yes
Yes
Minimal
Yes
Freeze
Dried
$18.99
No
No
No
Up to 80%
No
146. By investing just a
portion of your funds in
bulk food, you secure
your future regardless
of the coming events.
147. If the future holds
nothing disastrous for
our nation or world, then
you simply enjoy the
steady increase of food
prices.
148. If a major event occurred
or social conditions arose
that strangled the food
supply and drove prices
through the roof,
149. then the stock market
probably crashed, and
society is desperate for
financial security,
150. especially those of a
retired age who cannot
afford to wait for a 10
year recovery period.
151. But you won’t have to
spend a dime on
groceries, AND you can
sell your food for huge
profits, AND you can
give freely to those in
need.
164. Visit our website for more
information:
www.bulkfoodinternational.com
This is the end of the presentation, if you
haven’t yet read this article from the LA
Times, please read it now:
How to fight a food crisis