Solar in Minnesota: Great Potential

Solar in Minnesota:Great Promise
John Farrell
Institute for Local Self-Reliance
Presentation to Solar Minnesota
Minneapolis| April 25, 2011

@ the Institute for Local Self-Reliance
Who We Are
Community Banking
Initiative
Energy Self-Reliant States

Overview
State of Solar in Minnesota
Opportunities for Cost Reductions
The Value of Solar
Policy Matters

A Small but Growing Market
Installed Capacity: 4 MW
Installed in 2010: 1.8 MW – 45%
Photo credit: CERTs

Minnesota Solar = Expensive?
From page 19 of the brilliant report,
Tracking the Sun III: The Installed Cost of Photovoltaics in the U.S. from 1998-2009 (large pdf).

Cost of Solar != Market Size
Solar PV Costs - Does State Market Size Matter? | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/4ypjblp

40% PRICE DROP!
4 years
German solar market 2006 -> 2010 grew from 2.7 GW -> 16 GW

$4.11 per Watt!
German solar market 2006 -> 2010 grew from 2.7 GW -> 16 GW

$ per Watt
$5.09
$4.67
$5.65
$5.50
$5.20
$5.50
$5.39
$5.70
$4.78
$4.80
Installed Cost for Residential Solar PV Group Purchase

60% drop in PV cost
5 years
Solar PV Balance of System | Rocky Mountain Institute - http://tinyurl.com/3dazuo8

The Value of Distributed Solar
Distributed Solar Power Worth Far More Than Electrons | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/3tqmerh

The Value of Solar
Distributed Solar Power Worth Far More Than Electrons | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/3tqmerh

The Value of Solar
Solving Solar's Variability with More Solar | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/65b5nyh

RPS Policies with Solar/DG Provisions
www.dsireusa.org/ April 2011
WA: double credit for DG
NH: 0.3% solar- electric x 2014
OR: 20 MW solar PV x 2020;
double credit for PV
MI: triple credit for solar- electric
MA: 400 MW PV x 2020
NY: 0.4788% customer- sited x 2015
OH: 0.5% solar-electric x 2025
NJ: 5,316 GWh solar- electric x 2026
NV: 1.5% solar x 2025;
2.4 - 2.45 multiplier for PV
CO: 3.0% DG x 2020
1.5% customer-sited x 2020
IL: 1.5% PVx 2025
PA: 0.5% PV x 2021
WV: various multipliers
UT: 2.4 multiplier
for solar-electric
DE: 3.5% PV x 2026;
triple credit for PV
DC
MO: 0.3% solar-electric x 2021
NC: 0.2% solarx 2018
AZ: 4.5% DG x 2025
MD: 2% PV x 2022
DC: 0.4% solar x 2020
NM: 4% solar-electric x 2020 0.6% DG x 2020
TX: double credit for non-wind(non-wind goal: 500 MW)
16 states + DC have an RPS with solar/DG provisions
Renewable portfolio standard with solar / distributed generation (DG) provision
Renewable portfolio goal with solar / distributed generation provision
Solar water heating counts toward solar provision
Policy Matters: State Laws

Policy Matters: State Laws

Policy Matters: Local Rules
Poor Solar Permitting Rules Increase Residential Solar Prices
by Up To 20 Percent | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/5ts5b2k

Policy Matters: Local Rules
Assessment of Mpls-St. Paul permitting:
Permit pricing is about 2x higher than ideal… ~$500 in Minneapolis and ~$800 in St Paul…Minneapolis has a terrific submittal guidelines …St. Paul does not.
[Minneapolis] clearly states their expectations: I.E what you need to submit to succeed and obtain a permit.

Policy Matters
Ontario's Buy Local Renewable Energy Policy: An Update | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/3o4th8d

Policy Matters
Solar Could Save Minnesota Schools Millions | Energy Self-Reliant States - http://tinyurl.com/5sv8ond

Summary
Minnesota’s small market has high costs
Promising cost reduction potential
Policy needed
State standard
CLEAN Contract (feed-in tariff)
Local permitting
Solar is Contagious | Energy Self-Reliant States- http://tinyurl.com/444c2og

Solar is Contagious
1%
Solar is Contagious | Energy Self-Reliant States- http://tinyurl.com/444c2og

Thank you!
John Farrell
energyselfreliantstates.org
jfarrell@ilsr.org
http://twitter.com/johnffarrell

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Solar in Minnesota: Great Potential

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