Finding DG ValueBefore it Finds You                                             John Farrell, Senior Researcher          P...
Disconnect                    Res. and Comm. solar at retail price                              parity by 2022            ...
10¢                                                       •prevent blackouts   5¢                                         ...
10¢                            •prevent blackouts   5¢                       •reduce pollution                            ...
10¢                                                                                                         and more      ...
3¢         Transmission Access Costs                                                            l                         ...
12¢            10.8¢              Austin Energy                             Value of Solar Tariff                         ...
18¢15¢                                                                                         12.8¢12¢                   ...
Palo Alto, CA, CLEAN Program$0.15$0.12$0.09$0.06                                                  }                      6...
Total Ratepayer Cost of Solar                         per kWh15¢                                                          ...
Distributed solar is happening by big  companies and   thousands of   homeowners
30%         It’s launching      distributed storage       too - 30% of San       Diego EV owners           have solar
Distributed Solar Potential at Parity by 2022                       (residential and commercial MW)         360           ...
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Finding Value in Distributed Generation, Before it Finds You

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ILSR Senior Researcher John Farrell is giving this presentation to a collaborative meeting of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the National Association of Regulatory Commissioners (NARUC) this weekend. It highlights the proven value of distributed solar to utility grid systems and the urgent need for regulators and utilities to incorporate this value into their long-term plans, because distributed and unsubsidized solar is poised to explode as it reaches retail price parity.

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Finding Value in Distributed Generation, Before it Finds You

  1. 1. Finding DG ValueBefore it Finds You John Farrell, Senior Researcher Presentation 11/11/12to FERC/NARUC Smart Response Collaborative
  2. 2. Disconnect Res. and Comm. solar at retail price parity by 2022 4400 MW 20 MWMinnesota IOU solar plan for 2025
  3. 3. 10¢ •prevent blackouts 5¢ •reduce pollution •create jobs 0¢ 0¢ $4/Watt •on-site/near demand •lower transmission losses •reduce dist. system stress “levelized cost” over 25 yrs. -5¢ •hedge against fuel prices •avoided cost traditionally -10¢ -15¢ 4¢ How the utility ^ values distributed-20¢ -20¢ Cost of solar Energy value generation Grid benefits Social benefits Solar Power Generation in the US:Too expensive, or a bargain? - http://tinyurl.com/3tqmerh
  4. 4. 10¢ •prevent blackouts 5¢ •reduce pollution •create jobs 0¢ 0¢ •on-site/near demand •lower transmission losses -5¢ •reduce dist. system stress •hedge against fuel prices •avoided cost -10¢ 8.5¢ But it’s -15¢ 4¢ worth-20¢ -20¢ more Cost of solar Energy value Grid benefits Social benefits Solar Power Generation in the US:Too expensive, or a bargain? - http://tinyurl.com/3tqmerh
  5. 5. 10¢ and more •prevent blackouts 5¢ •reduce pollution •create jobs 0¢ •on-site/near demand 0¢ •lower transmission losses 12.4¢ -5¢ •reduce dist. system stress •hedge against fuel prices •avoided cost -10¢ 8.5¢ -15¢ 4¢-20¢ -20¢ Cost of solar Energy value Grid benefits Social benefits Solar Power Generation in the US:Too expensive, or a bargain? - http://tinyurl.com/3tqmerh
  6. 6. 3¢ Transmission Access Costs l U sua s es sA B usin2¢ $80 billion Savings if utilities embrace DG or stranded costs if utilities persist in large-scale transmission build-out while DG happens anyway.1¢ Cur rent TAC Dep recia ti on + O&M0¢ 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 Years
  7. 7. 12¢ 10.8¢ Austin Energy Value of Solar Tariff (per kWh) 9¢ Disaster Recovery 6¢ Loss Savings T&D Deferral Environment Gen. capacity 3¢ Energy Utilities value DG 0¢ Source:The Value of Distributed Photovoltaics to Austin Energy and the City of Austin
  8. 8. 18¢15¢ 12.8¢12¢ (per kWh) 9¢ 6¢ 3¢ Austin Energy Utilities value DG Value of Solar Tariff 0¢ 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: The Value of Distributed Photovoltaics to Austin Energy and the City of Austin
  9. 9. Palo Alto, CA, CLEAN Program$0.15$0.12$0.09$0.06 } 6¢ per kWh in addition to electricity Local capacity value Avoided transmission access Environmental (RPS compliance)$0.03 7¢ Avoided transmission losses Brown energy replacement Utilities value DG $0 Feed-In Tariff for PV in Palo Alto, Calif. Imminent: http://tinyurl.com/72sxgsb
  10. 10. Total Ratepayer Cost of Solar per kWh15¢ DG solar sweet spot12¢9¢6¢ T&D costs Required contract price3¢0¢ 100kW 500kW 1 MW 1 MW 5 MW 50 MW roof roof roof ground ground ground Distribution Grid T-Grid Sources: CAISO, CEC, and Clean Coalition, July 2011; see full analysis at www.clean-coalition.org/studies
  11. 11. Distributed solar is happening by big companies and thousands of homeowners
  12. 12. 30% It’s launching distributed storage too - 30% of San Diego EV owners have solar
  13. 13. Distributed Solar Potential at Parity by 2022 (residential and commercial MW) 360 1140 700 20 1200 580 2600 4400 1100 7200 4000 970 12,000 800 11,000 780 2900 11,000 72001800 2400 2300 5500 10,000 5100 140026,000 4800 11,000 990 19008200 4100 6800 3600 12,000 11,000 7300 5000 2800 1800 7000 Ge 5100 8500 16,000 tR 7100 32,000 ead Percent of Sales 590 y! 1-5% 30,000 5-10% 750 10% or more
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