How Democratic Energy Fits the Rural Electric Philosophy

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Local renewable power generation can fulfill the rural electric philosophy of self-reliance and economic development in the 21st century just as electrification did in the 20th century. This presentation by ILSR's Director of Democratic Energy John Farrell to the Electrons on the Run mini-conference on 3/12/14 explains how democratic energy can cost-effectively meet local power needs and contribute to the rural economy.

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How Democratic Energy Fits the Rural Electric Philosophy

  1. 1. T H E C O M I N G D E M O C R AT I C E N E R G Y F U T U R E E L E C T R O N S O N T H E R U N John Farrell Director of Democratic Energy March 12, 2014
  2. 2. Two Themes S E L F - R E L I A N C E E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T
  3. 3. D E M O C R AT I C E N E R G Y I N T H E 2 0 T H C E N T U RY S E L F - R E L I A N C E E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T
  4. 4. P E R C E N T O F FA R M S W I T H E L E C T R I C S E R V I C E 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 ! Volunteers for REA went door-to-door signing up farmers for $5 a share. Runestone Electric Association S E L F - R E L I A N C E
  5. 5. What REA service means to our farm home Lights Radio Refrigerator Washing machine By Rose Dudley Scearce Member, Shelby (Ky.) Rural Electric Cooperative E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T Clothes iron Electric range Electric water pump Vacuum cleaner Source: New Deal Network
  6. 6. E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T “The REA loans contributed significantly to increases in crop output and crop productivity” Source: Flip the Switch: The Spatial Impact of the Rural Electrification Administration 1935-1940 (December 2013)
  7. 7. D E M O C R AT I C E N E R G Y I N T H E 2 1 S T C E N T U RY S E L F - R E L I A N C E E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T
  8. 8. VA L U A B L E
  9. 9. $0.00 $0.03 $0.06 $0.08 $0.11 $0.14 Brown energy replacement Avoided transmission losses Environmental (RPS compliance) Avoided transmission access Local capacity value (per kWh) Minnesota Value of SolarUtilities value DG 14.5¢*
  10. 10. $??? billion in energy exports
  11. 11. $20 billion in energy exports
  12. 12. $20 billion in potential By turning energy imports into local energy production
  13. 13. Total Economic Impact Locally Owned Renewable Energy
  14. 14. L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E Not local 0 25 50 75 100 very negative negative neutral positive very positive
  15. 15. L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E Attitude towards increased use of local wind energy Not local 0 25 50 75 100 very negative negative neutral positive very positive -44% +33% +77% net approval Local Ownership
  16. 16. C O S T- E F F E C T I V E
  17. 17. 0¢ 5¢ 10¢ 15¢ 20¢ Past Now Future Subsidized Solar Parity Unsubsidized Solar Parity S O L A R PA R I T Y ¢ per kilowatt-hour
  18. 18. How fast are electricity prices rising? 0¢ 3¢ 6¢ 9¢ 12¢ 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 R A P I D LY R I S I N G AV E R A G E R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S ( R U N E S T O N E ) ???% per year
  19. 19. 0¢ 3¢ 6¢ 9¢ 12¢ 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 R A P I D LY R I S I N G AV E R A G E R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S ( R U N E S T O N E ) ¢ per kilowatt-hour Source: EIA 4.7% per year
  20. 20. 0¢ 10¢ 20¢ 30¢ 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Average Retail Price Solar No Subsidy Solar w/ ITC Solar w/ ITC+MACRS S O L A R “ PA R I T Y ” H E R E ? ¢ per kilowatt-hour
  21. 21. P O T E N T I A L
  22. 22. POTENTIAL PERCENT OF POWER FROM LOCAL RENEWABLES 100% or more 50 to 100% 25 to 50% 10 to 25% 10% or less L O C A L R E N E WA B L E P O T E N T I A L 32 states - 100%+
  23. 23. O P P O R T U N I T Y
  24. 24. Distributed Solar Potential at Parity (unsubsidized) by 2022 (residential and commercial MW) 8500 590 750 30,000 16,000 7200 11,000 1800 990 3600 12,000 780 7000 8200 5100 11,000 1900 26,000 2400 7300 5100 360 2600 1100 1200 800 1400 4800 1800 32,000 5000 580 970 2300 4100 4400 2900 7200 6800 2800 7100 11,000 11,000 550010,000 12,000 20 1140 700 4000 Percent of Sales 1-5% 5-10% 10% or more
  25. 25. C O M M U N I T Y S O L A R Wright-Hennepin Cooperative Electric Association Lake Region Electric Cooperative
  26. 26. L O C A L G E N E R AT I O N Saving $100 million in new power infrastructure Long Island Power Authority
  27. 27. L O C A L P O W E R S A N TA F EB O U L D E R 2x Coal Local studies suggest the cities could double renewable energy on the local grid at a comparable cost of electricity
  28. 28. T H A N K Y O U ! http://www.ilsr.org/initiatives/energy/ S E L F - R E L I A N C E E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T

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