0
PRESENTATION ON
‘PAKISTAN'S ECONOMY:
CHALLENGES & SOLUTIONS’
Outline Of The Presentation
What Needs to be Done?
Economy in the Current and the Next Year
Why have we Landed in such a d...
 Economy affects the lives of the people of Pakistan
 Two Pillars of the State
- Strong Economy
- Strong Defense
 A str...
 Power can lead to prosperity and prosperity may generate more
power
 Former US Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara sai...
EXAMPLE FROM SOVIET UNION
PERIOD REAL GDP GROWTH DEFENSE SPENDING
AS % OF GDP
1928-39 4.2 2.0*
1940-49 3.2 -
1950-59 7.1 9...
 One Pillar of the State (Economy) has been weakened
to the core in the last five years. Can the second pillar
(defense) ...
PAKISTAN’ ECONOMY IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES
 Not withstanding numerous challenges that we faced over the
last 65 yeas, P...
 The Karachi Port was underdeveloped and most of Pakistan’s
trade routed through the Indian ports of Bombay and Calcutta
...
 The share of agriculture in GDP was 60% in 1947. Today,
it contributes 22% and 78% contribution comes from
industry and ...
• Out of 14,569 industrial establishments in British India in 1947,
only 1406 units (less than 10%) were located in the ar...
• Pakistan used to produce 35,000 tons of sugar and today we are
producing more than 3.5-4.0 million tons of sugar
• At th...
UPS AND DOWNS IN PAKISTAN’S ECONOMY
Real GDP Growth (%)
1950s 2.5%
1960s 6.8%
1970s 4.8%
1980s 6.5%
1990s 4.6%
2000-01 2.0...
Real GDP Growth (%)
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
GDP
- Food & Fuel Crisis (Common Challenges faced by every
economy)
- Intensification of War on Terror
- Political Instability...
CONSEQUENTLY
- Economic growth slowed to an average of 3.0% per annum
over the last five years from an average of 7.0 per ...
Years China India Sri Lanka Bangladesh Pakistan
2005 11.3 9.0 6.2 6.3 9.0
2006 12.7 9.5 7.7 6.5 5.8
2007 14.2 10.0 6.8 6.3...
- Budget deficit averaged 7.0% of GDP, reaching as high as 8.8% in 2012-
13
- Public debt more than doubled in 5 years fro...
REAL GDP GROWTH SLOWED TO LESS THAN
ONE HALF IN THE LAST 5 YEARS
Source: Various Issues of Economic Survey
Growth recovere...
INVESTMENT PICKED UP DURING 2000-07 BUT
REACHED TO A 50 YEARS LOW LAST YEAR
19.0
20.1
20.7
19.4
18.4
18.8
17.7
17.3
15.6
1...
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN UNEMPLOYMENT
2000-07 BUT RISING THEREAFTER
Unemployment declined …
Source: Economic Survey 2010-1...
PERCENT OF PEOPLE LIVING BELOW THE POVERTY
LINE REDUCED TO ONE HALF
INFLATION ACCELERATED AFTER 2007-08
3.6
4.4
3.5 3.1
4.6
9.3
7.9 7.8
12
20.8
11.7
13.9
11
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
In...
OVERALL FISCAL DEFICIT (% OF GDP)
CONTINUED TO REMAIN MANAGEABLE DURING
2000-07 BUT SURGED TO A NEW HEIGHT LAST
YEAR
Sourc...
PUBLIC DEBT MORE THAN DOUBLE IN THE LAST
FIVE YEARS
3018
3489 3510 3618 3789 4065 4363
4802
6044
7629
8921
10709
12668
140...
Current Account Deficit remained high in the 1990s despite low economic growth.
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT GROWING (% OF GDP)...
FOREIGN INVESTMENT (US $ MILLION) SURGED
DURING 2004-05 ONWARD BUT COLLAPSED IN THE
LAST FIVE YEARS
Source: SBP
237
554
44...
1060 984
1087
2389
4237
3872
4169
4600
5493
6450
7811
8906
11701
13186
13921
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,00...
TRENDS IN EXTERNAL DEBT AND LIABILITIES
External Debt and Foreign Exchange Liabilities (Billion $)
We added $2.6 billion i...
 Why Have we Landed in Such a Difficult Situation?
 Economy Never Received Due Attention by the Outgoing Government
 Po...
 Bleeding PSEs Consuming over Rs. 300 billion annually
 Energy Mismanagement Resulting in “Crisis”
 Weak Governance
 W...
 New Government has inherited
- A slowing economy
- Investment plummeting to the lowest rising unemployment and
poverty
-...
• Debt Repayment Crisis forced the government to seek a new
IMF Program.
• Pakistan’s Medium-term (3 to 5 years) economic ...
DEBT REPAYMENT CRISIS IN 2012-13 AND 2013-14
Period External Debt &
Liabilities (Million $)
Public Debt (Billion Rs)
1947-...
CHANGES IN DEBT PROFILE
Period External Debt &
Liabilities (million $)
Public Debt (Billion) Rs)
1948-60 145 -
1960-70 281...
 Newly Elected Government must bring a strong economic team
 Political Leadership must provide full support to the team
...
 Undertake wide-ranging structural reforms
- Taxation side
- Expenditure side
- Accelerating Privatization
- Power Sector...
• New government appears to be the continuation of the previous
regime
• Weak Economic Team
• Same old Economic Team
• Why...
CONCLUDING REMARKS
 Serious Challenges for the economy in the next two years
 Issues are not insurmountable
 Theses cha...
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  1. 1. PRESENTATION ON ‘PAKISTAN'S ECONOMY: CHALLENGES & SOLUTIONS’
  2. 2. Outline Of The Presentation What Needs to be Done? Economy in the Current and the Next Year Why have we Landed in such a difficult situation? Recent Development (Post 2007/08) Pakistan’s Economy in Historical Perspective Why Economy Matters?
  3. 3.  Economy affects the lives of the people of Pakistan  Two Pillars of the State - Strong Economy - Strong Defense  A strong economy can ensure strong defense; it will enhance country’s power and hence make the country’s defense even more stronger  Economic Backwardness generates violence, social conflicts and political turmoil.  According to historian Paul Kennedy, “a nation’s military strength rests on its economic strength”  What is military strength? It is nothing but power. What is power? It is the ability to influence the behaviour of others in accordance with one’s aims and objectives WHY ECONOMY MATTERS?
  4. 4.  Power can lead to prosperity and prosperity may generate more power  Former US Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara said that “Security means development and without development there is no security”.  No nation can sustain strong defense and nuclear arsenal without a strong economy  A strong economy would ensure strong defense and not the other way round
  5. 5. EXAMPLE FROM SOVIET UNION PERIOD REAL GDP GROWTH DEFENSE SPENDING AS % OF GDP 1928-39 4.2 2.0* 1940-49 3.2 - 1950-59 7.1 9.0** 1960-69 4.3 14.5 1970-79 3.4 13.9 1980-89 2.7 15.4@ *1928 **1950 @ 1980-84 Source: William Easterly and Stanley Fisher, “The Soviet Economic Decline”, The World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 9, No. 3, September 1995, pp 341-371
  6. 6.  One Pillar of the State (Economy) has been weakened to the core in the last five years. Can the second pillar (defense) remain strong and for how long?  It is for this reason that economy needs greater attention
  7. 7. PAKISTAN’ ECONOMY IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVES  Not withstanding numerous challenges that we faced over the last 65 yeas, Pakistan has done reasonably well on economic front. Pakistan’s economy has grown at an average rate of 5.0% per annum over the last 65 years.  The influx of refugees from India created insurmountable problems as the country had no resources to meet this challenge  The migration of Hindu and Sikh communities from Pakistan nearly paralyzed the economic and administrative machinery.  The head office of only One Pakistani owned bank was located in Pakistani territory
  8. 8.  The Karachi Port was underdeveloped and most of Pakistan’s trade routed through the Indian ports of Bombay and Calcutta  India refused to release allotted share of cash balance of undivided India to the tune of Rs 75 crore (Rs. 750 million) for running the civil administration.  After a long battle India released a much smaller amount than the legitimate share of Pakistan
  9. 9.  The share of agriculture in GDP was 60% in 1947. Today, it contributes 22% and 78% contribution comes from industry and services  Production of wheat was 4.0 million tons in 1947. Today we are producing over 23-24 million tons - almost 6 times more  Production of cotton was approximately 1.0 million bales in 1947. Today we are producing close to 13.0 -14.0 million bales  Production of sugarcane was 10 million tons in 1947. Today we are producing over 55-60 million tons
  10. 10. • Out of 14,569 industrial establishments in British India in 1947, only 1406 units (less than 10%) were located in the areas that comprised Pakistan. • At the time of independence, Pakistan had a narrow industrial base with 34 units of textile, sugar mills and some cement factory • In 1947 there were 177,000 spindles in Pakistan. Today we have 9.3 million spindles. There were 4800 looms in 1947; today we have approximately 3.0 million power looms
  11. 11. • Pakistan used to produce 35,000 tons of sugar and today we are producing more than 3.5-4.0 million tons of sugar • At the time of independence Pakistan was producing 270,000 tons of cement. Today we are now producing over 28 million tons of cement • Pakistan inherited very weak infrastructure at the time of independence. Pakistan inherited 22,000 km road and today we have a road network of 258,350km • Given its potential, Pakistan could have done better on economic front
  12. 12. UPS AND DOWNS IN PAKISTAN’S ECONOMY Real GDP Growth (%) 1950s 2.5% 1960s 6.8% 1970s 4.8% 1980s 6.5% 1990s 4.6% 2000-01 2.0% 2001-02 3.1% 2002-03 4.7% 2003-04 7.5% 2004-05 9.0% 2005-06 5.8% 2006-07 6.8% 2007-08 5.0% 2008-09 0.4% 2009-10 2.6% 2010-11 3.7% 2011-12 4.4 % 2012-13 3.6% Source: Pakistan Economic Survey
  13. 13. Real GDP Growth (%) 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% GDP
  14. 14. - Food & Fuel Crisis (Common Challenges faced by every economy) - Intensification of War on Terror - Political Instability - Less than satisfactory security environment - Energy Crisis - Economy Remained out of Radar of the Government - Instability in economic team - Weak economic team - Fiscal Indiscipline - Weak governance - Break down of public–private sector relations RECENT DEVELOPMENTS (POST-2008)
  15. 15. CONSEQUENTLY - Economic growth slowed to an average of 3.0% per annum over the last five years from an average of 7.0 per annum during the previous five years - Investment is down to 50 years low at 12.5% of GDP from as high as 22.5% of GDP only five years ago - Domestic Saving Rate at 5.8% of GDP is the lowest in the country’s history from an average of 15% of GDP during the previous five years - Large – scale manufacturing growth averaged 0.7% per annum over the last five years from an average of 12.4% per annum during the previous five years
  16. 16. Years China India Sri Lanka Bangladesh Pakistan 2005 11.3 9.0 6.2 6.3 9.0 2006 12.7 9.5 7.7 6.5 5.8 2007 14.2 10.0 6.8 6.3 6.8 2008 9.6 6.7 6.0 6.2 5.0 2009 9.1 8.0 3.5 5.7 0.4 2010 10.4 8.4 8.0 6.1 2.6 2011 9.2 6.2 8.0 6.7 3.7 2012 7.8 5.0 6.2 6.3 4.4 2013 8.0 6.4 6.5 6.0 3.6 Real GDP Growth (percent) P = projected Source: Annual Report 2010-11; State Bank of Pakistan 12.7% 6.8% 9.5% 6.9% 6.1% 6.4% 6.4% 3.3% 7.2% 9.0%
  17. 17. - Budget deficit averaged 7.0% of GDP, reaching as high as 8.8% in 2012- 13 - Public debt more than doubled in 5 years from Rs. 5 trillion in 2007 to Rs. 13 trillion in 2012 - Over $20 billion external debt added in 5 years - Foreign Investment has simply collapsed – down from $8.5 billion in 2007 to just $0.8 billion in 2012 - Inflation persisted in double digits for more than 50 months in a row - Pak Rupee has lost 39% of its value - Poverty and Unemployment have increased - Foreign exchange reserves is at $10.0 billion, of which, $4.8 billion is the SBP’s reserves and $5.2 billion is commercial banks reserves with SBP on August 30, 2013 - PSEs are bleeding and consuming over Rs. 300 billion annually - Power Sector has received Rs. 1500 billion in subsidy in the last five years
  18. 18. REAL GDP GROWTH SLOWED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF IN THE LAST 5 YEARS Source: Various Issues of Economic Survey Growth recovered during 2003-2007 to an average of 7.0% p.a. 5.6 7.7 2.3 4.4 5.1 6.6 1.7 3.5 4.2 3.9 1.8 3.1 4.7 7.5 9.0 5.8 6.8 3.7 1.7 3.1 3.0 3.7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
  19. 19. INVESTMENT PICKED UP DURING 2000-07 BUT REACHED TO A 50 YEARS LOW LAST YEAR 19.0 20.1 20.7 19.4 18.4 18.8 17.7 17.3 15.6 17.4 17.2 16.8 16.9 16.6 19.1 21.1 22.5 22.1 18.2 15.4 13.4 12.5 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Source: Various Issues of Economic Survey
  20. 20. SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN UNEMPLOYMENT 2000-07 BUT RISING THEREAFTER Unemployment declined … Source: Economic Survey 2010-11 7.8 8.3 7.7 6.2 5.3 5.2 5.5 5.6 6 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 1999-00 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
  21. 21. PERCENT OF PEOPLE LIVING BELOW THE POVERTY LINE REDUCED TO ONE HALF
  22. 22. INFLATION ACCELERATED AFTER 2007-08 3.6 4.4 3.5 3.1 4.6 9.3 7.9 7.8 12 20.8 11.7 13.9 11 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Inflation (%)
  23. 23. OVERALL FISCAL DEFICIT (% OF GDP) CONTINUED TO REMAIN MANAGEABLE DURING 2000-07 BUT SURGED TO A NEW HEIGHT LAST YEAR Source: Ministry of Finance 0.0 (8.7) (7.4) (8.0) (5.9) (5.6) (6.5) (6.4) (7.7) (6.1) (5.4) (4.3) (4.3) (3.7) (2.4) (3.3) (4.2) (4.3) (7.4) (5.2) (6.3) (6.6) (8.5) (8.8) (10.0) (9.0) (8.0) (7.0) (6.0) (5.0) (4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 Date 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13* • Projected
  24. 24. PUBLIC DEBT MORE THAN DOUBLE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS 3018 3489 3510 3618 3789 4065 4363 4802 6044 7629 8921 10709 12668 14000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000 Public Debt (Billion Rs)
  25. 25. Current Account Deficit remained high in the 1990s despite low economic growth. CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT GROWING (% OF GDP) SHRANK, TURNED SURPLUS AND THEN STARTED WIDENING -4.8 -7.2 -6.2 -4.1 -1.6 -0.7 0.1 3.8 1.4 -1.6 -4.4 -5.0 -8.3 -5.7 -2.0 0.2 -2.4 -1.3 (10.0) (8.0) (6.0) (4.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 1990-91 1995-96 1996-97 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Source: SBP
  26. 26. FOREIGN INVESTMENT (US $ MILLION) SURGED DURING 2004-05 ONWARD BUT COLLAPSED IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS Source: SBP 237 554 443 643 1532 1307 950 823 403 543 182 475 820 922 1677 3875 8428 5475 2665 2086 1979 708 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 8000 8500 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Foreign Investment
  27. 27. 1060 984 1087 2389 4237 3872 4169 4600 5493 6450 7811 8906 11701 13186 13921 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 REMITTANCES ($ MILLION) CONTINUED TO RISE
  28. 28. TRENDS IN EXTERNAL DEBT AND LIABILITIES External Debt and Foreign Exchange Liabilities (Billion $) We added $2.6 billion in in 7 years (2000-07) but added $24 billion in 6 years (2007-12) Source: Ministry of Finance
  29. 29.  Why Have we Landed in Such a Difficult Situation?  Economy Never Received Due Attention by the Outgoing Government  Political Instability continued since March 2007  Intensification of War on Terror  Deteriorating Security Environment  Frequent Changes in Economic Team  Absence of Key Ministers for six months  Weak Economic Team  Food & Fuel Price Shocks  Fiscal Indiscipline - New NFC Award - Reckless Spending
  30. 30.  Bleeding PSEs Consuming over Rs. 300 billion annually  Energy Mismanagement Resulting in “Crisis”  Weak Governance  Weakening of Key Economic Institutions - Ministry of Finance - State Bank of Pakistan - Planning Commission  No Interaction of Government with Private Sector  Deliberate or Incompetence?
  31. 31.  New Government has inherited - A slowing economy - Investment plummeting to the lowest rising unemployment and poverty - Large fiscal deficit - Unsustainable Debt - Foreign investment drying up - Foreign Exchange reserves declining rapidly to a dangerously low level - Looming debt crisis - Bleeding PSEs - Persisting energy crisis - Crumbling infrastructure - A nervous private sector - Dwindling state authority
  32. 32. • Debt Repayment Crisis forced the government to seek a new IMF Program. • Pakistan’s Medium-term (3 to 5 years) economic prospects will hinge how we deliver on IMF Program.
  33. 33. DEBT REPAYMENT CRISIS IN 2012-13 AND 2013-14 Period External Debt & Liabilities (Million $) Public Debt (Billion Rs) 1947-48 0.0 - 1949-50 0.0 - 1959-60 145.0 - 1969-70 2959.0 - 1979-80 9458.0 155.4 1989-90 19207 801.2 1999-2000 37860 3018 2006-07 40500 4814 2009-10 57600 8911 2012 (Dec.) 61000 13904 Source: State Bank of Pakistan and Debt Office, Ministry of Finance
  34. 34. CHANGES IN DEBT PROFILE Period External Debt & Liabilities (million $) Public Debt (Billion) Rs) 1948-60 145 - 1960-70 2814 - 1970-80 6499 155.4 1980-90 9749 646 1990-2000 18653 2217 2000-2007 2640 1796 2007-2012 Dec 20500 9090
  35. 35.  Newly Elected Government must bring a strong economic team  Political Leadership must provide full support to the team  No Room for Business-as-usual Policy  Extraordinary situation Demand Extraordinary Measures  Financial Discipline is the key to success  Bring Budget Deficit down to 3.0 – 3.5 percent of GDP in the next 3-5 years • WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE?
  36. 36.  Undertake wide-ranging structural reforms - Taxation side - Expenditure side - Accelerating Privatization - Power Sector Reform - Circular Debt Issues - Correcting the Manufacturing defects of the NFC Award - Strengthening of Infrastructure - Strong Linkages with Private Sector - Road show in major capital markets  Challenging Time Ahead but Surmountable
  37. 37. • New government appears to be the continuation of the previous regime • Weak Economic Team • Same old Economic Team • Why should we Expect Different Result? • New Government has thus far borrowed from the SBP Rs. 15.3 billion per day as compared with Rs. 1.3 billion per day by the previous regime • Implementation of the IMF conditionalities will be extremely painful for the people • The new program of the IMF is not likely to be completed • The general perception is that IMF wishes to keep Pakistani economy hanging in balance during the US withdrawal out of Afghanistan
  38. 38. CONCLUDING REMARKS  Serious Challenges for the economy in the next two years  Issues are not insurmountable  Theses challenges can be addressed in a three year framework  We need a strong economic team  There is no dearth of good people in the country  What is required is honest, competent and patriotic leadership providing full support to economic team  We have the capacity to turnaround the economy in three years  The country has faced serious challenges in the past but we recovered  We have the capacity to recover from the ground zero once again, Inshallah
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