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Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan IklimFarhan HelmySekretaris Kelompok Kerja Mitigasi, DNPI1Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan ...
Outline• Framing Kebijakan Perubahan Iklim, Tantangan danStatus (sd April 2013)• Tantangan• Pengembangan Jejaring• Pengemb...
FRAMING KEBIJAKAN PERUBAHAN IKLIMDAN TANTANGANNYAMasa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 3
Dimensi Persoalan• Profil emisi global dan moda produksi masa laluLaporan UNEP tentang “Emissions Gap Tahun 2012menyebutka...
Perspektif Ekonomi-Politik 4I – Institution, Ideas, Information andInterests• Secara ekonomi-politik dinamika kebijakanpub...
Beyond Business as Usual• Proses politik dan kelembagaan sedang berlangsung dalam merumuskanaksi, tatakelola dan mekanisme...
Kronologis Pengembangan Kelembagaan dan Kebijakan• Perpres 46/2008, Pendirian DNPI• DNPI (2010), Abatement Cost Curve and ...
Rencana Aksi Nasianal. Emisi GRK Indonesia diperkirakan akan meningkat dari 1.72 to 2.95GtCO2e (2000-2020). Rencana Aksi P...
Tantangan 26/41. Respon terhadap tantangan perubahan iklim harus diselesaikan dengan suatuspektrum yang luas melalui frami...
Tantangan: Data Peatland10Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 10
Peta Kemampuan di berbagai K/LSource: Satgas REDD+(2010)11Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
TANTANGAN12Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 12
Tantangan• Menterjemahkan kesepakatan global ke tingkatnasional/sub-nasional dan sebaliknya: nasional(2012-2014), internat...
Beberapa Inspirasi• Accelerating change, abundance and singularity yang tidak lepasdari proses politik (Jaron Lanier, Who ...
PENGEMBANGAN JEJARING15Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
Pengembangan JejaringOther Govt. InstitutionsScience to Policy EntitiesImprove linksExistingarrangementsFuturearrangements...
Jejaring Pengetahuan (Status April 2013)• Series of Policy and Technical Dialogue: MRV, low carbon economy, policy andmode...
TERIMA KASIH!18Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
LAMPIRANINISIATIF DALAM KAJIAN KEBIJAKAN19Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 19
Macro Level Assessment : We have identified ways to reduce as much as 2.3 Gt CO2e in cutsby 2030, using existing technolog...
Low Carbon Growth Strategies (LCGS). Exercises have been undertaking in developinglow carbon growth plan in three provinci...
Population Dynamics . We have identified a number of population-based policy options forreducing GHG emissions which we be...
Economic Incentive for REDD+ using OSIRIS (Open Source Impacts of REDD Incentives Spreadsheet)developed in collaboration w...
Definisi konsensus ‘Peatland’ oleh ICCCPeatland is an area with an accumulation of partlydecomposed organic matter, with a...
LULUCF Dynamics in KalimantanUnderlying Assumptions• The interaction between land use/land cover dynamics is poorlyunderst...
Deliverables 2 – LULUCF Dynamics in Kalimantan(continued)Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 26
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  1. 1. Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan IklimFarhan HelmySekretaris Kelompok Kerja Mitigasi, DNPI1Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
  2. 2. Outline• Framing Kebijakan Perubahan Iklim, Tantangan danStatus (sd April 2013)• Tantangan• Pengembangan Jejaring• Pengembangan Jejaring• CapaianMasa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 2
  3. 3. FRAMING KEBIJAKAN PERUBAHAN IKLIMDAN TANTANGANNYAMasa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 3
  4. 4. Dimensi Persoalan• Profil emisi global dan moda produksi masa laluLaporan UNEP tentang “Emissions Gap Tahun 2012menyebutkan bahwa emisi GRK tahun 2020 bisamencapai 8 - 13 milyard tons di di atas angka yangdapat ditoleransi dapat menjaga kenaikan temperatur >2 degrees Celsius.• Skenario pembangunan rendah emisi karbon (lowemission development scenarios/LEDs) dantransisinyatransisinya– Kesadaran akan pentingnya skenario rendahemisi karbon dan pertumbuhan ekonomi yangtinggi– Transformasi mensyaratkan transisi– Resiko (risk) dan ketidak pastian(uncertainty)– Shared vision dan domestikasi/institusionalisasi• Tatakelola Global dan proses politik nasionalMasa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 4Sumber: UNEP Emssion Gap Report 2012
  5. 5. Perspektif Ekonomi-Politik 4I – Institution, Ideas, Information andInterests• Secara ekonomi-politik dinamika kebijakanpublik perubahan iklim dapatdigambarkan sebagai interaksi dinamikperilaku aktor yang dipengaruhi olehinformasi (information), gagasan(ideas)dan kepentingan(interest) dalam suatubingkai kelembagaan (institutions) (4I)yang beroperasi secara dinamik di tingkatnasional/sub-nasional maupunnasional/sub-nasional maupuninternasional.• Perubahan transformasional dariBussiness as Usual (BAU) merupakansuatu dinamika institusi yang melibatkanrestrukturisasi insentif (incentives),diskursus(discourse) dan relasi kekuasaan(power relations)• Kebijakan publik dan tatakelola lingkunganpada dasarnya adalah proses politikSumber:Brouckhaus, M. and Angelsen, Arild(2012), SeeingREDD+ through 4Is: A Political Economy Framework, CIFOR.Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 5
  6. 6. Beyond Business as Usual• Proses politik dan kelembagaan sedang berlangsung dalam merumuskanaksi, tatakelola dan mekanisme yang terintegrasi, koheren dalamkerangka pembangunan berkelanjutan dengan mempertimbangkandinamika yang terjadi baik global, nasional dan sub-nasional:– AKSI: low carbon development skenario yang efektif dan efisien RAN-GRK,Perpres 61/2011; RAD-GRK– TATAKELOLA: sistem pemantauan dan evaluasi melalui MRV system yangkokoh, melibatkan pemangku kepentingan secara inklusif Sistem InventarisGHG Nasional(SIGN), Perpres 71/2011– MEKANISME: mekanisme climate financing and investment yang yang efektifdan efisien yang didukung oleh kelembagaan yang kokoh) yang dimobilisasimelalui mekanisme nasional, global/multilateral, bilateral.• Adanya kebutuhan untuk merespon dinamika kelembagaan yang sedangterjadi berdasarkan kepada ilmu pengetahuan yang kokoh, yang akanmenuju kepada investasi dan inisiatif Green (Green Investment andInitiatives).• Dengan mengambil ketiga bidang strategis dari ilmu pengetahuan,kebijakan dan investasi sebagai pertimbangan, pemerintah/DNPIbertujuan untuk melihat kepada:– Ilmu Pengetahuan untuk membangun skenario masa yang tepat dalammemahami dinamika perubahan iklim– Kebijakan untuk memfasilitasi dialog yang inklusif berdasarkan sains– Investasi untuk mendorong green investmentMasa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 6RAN : Rencana Aksi Nasional Penurunan Emisi GRKRAD: Rencana Aksi DaerahNAMAs: National Appropiate Mitigation ActionsNatcom: National ComminicationsBUR: Bieneal Update ReportICA: International Consultation and Analysis
  7. 7. Kronologis Pengembangan Kelembagaan dan Kebijakan• Perpres 46/2008, Pendirian DNPI• DNPI (2010), Abatement Cost Curve and Low Carbon Growth Strategy (LCGS).Mengidentifikasi lebih dari 150 potensi aksi mitigasi dan rangking serta uji coba dalammelakukan strategi low carbon growth di 3 propinsi (Kalimantan Timur, Kalimantan Tengahdan Jambi).• MoE(2010), 2nd National communications(Natcom) dan GHG Inventory.Proyeksi emisi sampai dengan 2020 sebesar 2.95 Gt CO2 dibawah BAU dari sektor energi,perkebunan dan kehutanan, limbah industri dan lahan gambut.Proyeksi emisi sampai dengan 2020 sebesar 2.95 Gt CO2 dibawah BAU dari sektor energi,perkebunan dan kehutanan, limbah industri dan lahan gambut.• Bappenas (2011), Rencana Aksi Penurunan Emisi (RAN/RAD GRK).Terdiri dari 70 program yang terdistribusi dalam banyak sektor (land based, energi danlain-lain), dikategorikan secara umum kedalam kegiatan inti dan pendukung.• MoE (2011), Sistem Inventarisasi GRK Nasional (SIGN).Mengkombinasikan pendekatan top-down dan bottom-up dalam pengembangan sisteminventarisasi GHG and using to• Munculnya Mekanisme Kelembagaan Baru:– REDD+– Joint Credit Mechanism (Indonesia-Japan)7Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
  8. 8. Rencana Aksi Nasianal. Emisi GRK Indonesia diperkirakan akan meningkat dari 1.72 to 2.95GtCO2e (2000-2020). Rencana Aksi Penurunan GRK (RAN-GRK) mencakup lebih dari 70 kegiatanyang didistribusikan ke berbagai sektor.SektorRencana Aksi(Giga ton CO2e) K/L26% 15%(total 41%)Kehutanan dan GambutLimbah0.6720.0480,3670.030Kementerian Kehutanan, KLH,Kementerian PU, KementerianPertanian, KLHKementrian PU, KLHLimbahPertanianIndustriEnergi dan Transportasi0.0480.0080.0010.0380.0300.0030.0040.018Kementrian PU, KLHKementerian Pertanian, KLHKementerian PerindustrianKementerian Perhubungan,ESDM, Kementerian PU0.767 0.4228Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
  9. 9. Tantangan 26/41. Respon terhadap tantangan perubahan iklim harus diselesaikan dengan suatuspektrum yang luas melalui framing dialog yang komprehensif. Konsensus dan engagement parapihak dan dan MRV sebagai instrumen tatakelola.Framing Dialog• Menetapkan baseline Business as Usual (BAU)sebagai basis aksi mitigasi nasional: domestik(26%), dukungan internasional (41%) and creditedNAMAs• Memilih aksi mitigasi yang efektif dan efisien (leastabatement cost) melalui proses yang terintegrasidan inklusif pada tingkat nasional maupun sub-nasional.• Membangun skema pendanaan yang efektif danefisien : publik, public-private, market/non-marketNAMAs – National Appropriate Mitigation Actionsefisien : publik, public-private, market/non-market• “Proof of Concept” dalam kerangka pembangunanrendah emisi karbon (low emissiondevelopment(LCE)/sustainable development)Konsensus dan Engagement dalam kebijakan danberbagi isu teknis• Kementrian/Lembaga, industri, LSM, dll.Tata Kelola (governance)• MRV sebagai alat untuk mengukur komitmen dankinerja• MRV sebagai alat fasilitasi koordinasi danperencanaanMasa Depan TatakelolaPerubahan IklimStatus dan Tantangan Kebijakan dan Program Perubahan Iklim
  10. 10. Tantangan: Data Peatland10Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 10
  11. 11. Peta Kemampuan di berbagai K/LSource: Satgas REDD+(2010)11Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
  12. 12. TANTANGAN12Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 12
  13. 13. Tantangan• Menterjemahkan kesepakatan global ke tingkatnasional/sub-nasional dan sebaliknya: nasional(2012-2014), international (2012-2015)• Knowledge management “lesson learnt” secarasistematik• “Proof of Concept” di berbagai sektor potensial• Pengembangan policy measures strategik danpembangunan kapasitas untuk meresponpembangunan kapasitas untuk merespondinamika institusi yang terjadi saat ini• Stakeholder engagement i.e public-privatescheme?13Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
  14. 14. Beberapa Inspirasi• Accelerating change, abundance and singularity yang tidak lepasdari proses politik (Jaron Lanier, Who Own the Future, 2013)• Dinamika peradaban yang memerlukan aksi kolektif karenaperadaban dipengaruhi dan didorong oleh interaksi virtual danfisik (Erich Smidt and Jared Cohen, The New Digital Age:Reshaping the Future of People, Nations and Bussiness, 2013)• Reduksi hirarki dan kontrol yang secara sistemik memberiprevilege pada sekelompok kepentingan sampai pada tingkatminimum (Deric Shannon, et.al, The Accumulation Freedom:Writings on Anarchists Economics, 2012)Writings on Anarchists Economics, 2012)• 6 Pengerak Perubahan global: interkoneksi ekonomi global baru,ICT, kesetimbangan politik baru, pertumbuhan tidakberkelanjutan yang cepat, perkembangan teknologi (biologi,biokimia, genetik dan sains material), relasi baru peradabandengan sistem ekologis (Al Gore, The Future, 2013).• Reduksi fragility atau memperkuat anti-fragility (Nasim NicholasTayeb, Anti Fragile, 2012)• Memahami dinamika dan simtom krisis ekonomi:(1). NourielRoubini, Crises Economics: A Crash Course in the Future ofFinance, 2011 (2). Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff,This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, 2009)Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 14
  15. 15. PENGEMBANGAN JEJARING15Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
  16. 16. Pengembangan JejaringOther Govt. InstitutionsScience to Policy EntitiesImprove linksExistingarrangementsFuturearrangementsGlobal Network SupportLED PioneersKey Policy MakersDNPIOther StakeholdersExpansion ofDNPI activitiesExpand collaborationCreateExistingarrangementsFuturearrangementsNational/sub-nationalnetwork supportKey Policy MakersKey Media PartnersSocial MediaLaw Makers16Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
  17. 17. Jejaring Pengetahuan (Status April 2013)• Series of Policy and Technical Dialogue: MRV, low carbon economy, policy andmodelling, expert briefings on mitigation related issues, geo-spatial technology, 100villages mapping initiative; green investment, innovation and productivity; servicereform dialogue on CC(SEREDI)• Indonesia Carbon Update Network (ICU-Net, www.indonesiacarbonupdate.net) lowcarbon economy, green Innovation, policy and assessment, geospatial technology,knowledge Warehouse, open source initiative, MRV and ICU-netportal(www.indonesiacarbonupdate.net)• Sapporo Initiatives: strategic integrative research in the framework of low carboneconomy; integration of science and capacity building efforts in economy-wide climatechange mitigation research; geo-spatial technology; a new approach on mobilizing anddeploying financial/technical resources (GO, private)• Asia Forum on Carbon Update (AFCU-Net, www.afcunetwork.net): networking and• Asia Forum on Carbon Update (AFCU-Net, www.afcunetwork.net): networking andcollaborative efforts on low carbon economy, technology and capacity building forscientific communities in the Asian region.• Green Investment, Innovation and Productivity, www.greeninvestmentindonesia.net• University Network on Climate Change: 19 universities, Trans Kalimantan University(more than 100 universities)• Inisiatif Pemetaan 100 Desa.• International Partnership on Mitigation and MRV, www.mitigationpartnership.net• South East Asia Network on Climate Change Focal Points(SEAN-CC, www.sean-cc.org),UNEP.• Indonesia Climate Change Center (ICCC) (US-Indonesia Comprehensive Partnership),www.iccc-network.net• East Asia Carbon Partnership on Low Carbon Society• Open Source Initiative for Climate Change Governance (DNPI, WRI, ...)17Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
  18. 18. TERIMA KASIH!18Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
  19. 19. LAMPIRANINISIATIF DALAM KAJIAN KEBIJAKAN19Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 19
  20. 20. Macro Level Assessment : We have identified ways to reduce as much as 2.3 Gt CO2e in cutsby 2030, using existing technologies. Put another way, we have identified specific ways (entirelyexecuted, are to cut as much as 70 percent of our emissions by 2030.)Reduction possibilities• 150 different measures have been identified that can beexecuted by the government, private sector and thecommunity, which if all activated, add up to this 70percent of total emissions in 2030.• The five biggest opportunities to reduce emissions are:1). to prevent deforestation (570 Mt) (2). to prevent1). to prevent deforestation (570 Mt) (2). to preventfires on peatland (310 Mt) (3). - to prevent oxidation ofpeatland through water management and rehabilitation(250 Mt) (4). - to implement and enforce sustainableforest management (SFM) (240 Mt) (5). to reforestmarginal and degraded forests (150 Mt)• Better management of Indonesia’s land holds the key tocutting emissions and improving economic planning. Itoffers the possibility of reducing emissions by 1.9 GtCO2e by 2030.Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
  21. 21. Low Carbon Growth Strategies (LCGS). Exercises have been undertaking in developinglow carbon growth plan in three provincial governments shows that Low carbon growththinking has not been reflected in the traditional spatial planning processKey Elements:Sustainable economic development strategy• Competitive strengths and weaknesses• New sources of growthSector strategies• Abatement opportunities, pilot projects, policiesrequiredrequired• Palm oil, forestry, agriculture, coal, oil & gasDistrict strategies• District’s size and land use• Emissions and potential for abatement• GDP and employmentImplementation and enablers• Detailed action plan• Critical enablers required• Estimate of total costsMasa Depan TatakelolaPerubahan Iklim
  22. 22. Population Dynamics . We have identified a number of population-based policy options forreducing GHG emissions which we believe merit further development and implementation:on Dynamics:Source: DNPI, BKKBN, UNFPA (2012), Policy Memo, “Population Dynamics and Climate Change in Indonesia”• Enormous improvements can be made in energy efficiency in urban areas by better evidence-based spatialplanning and allied interventions.• Revitalizing the national family planning program can make a major contribution to Indonesia’s GHG mitigationefforts over the next 40 years, and beyond.• Investing heavily in the education of today’s youth is an essential component of a successful mitigationstrategy and a smooth transition to a green economy.• Much can be done to promote – especially among the young and rising middle class – the benefits of greenchoices and sustainable lifestyles to help reverse the current steep rise in the country’s carbon intensity.Masa Depan TatakelolaPerubahan Iklim
  23. 23. Economic Incentive for REDD+ using OSIRIS (Open Source Impacts of REDD Incentives Spreadsheet)developed in collaboration with Conservation International (CI), Environmental Defense Fund(EDF)and World Resource Institute• Estimates and maps impacts of international and nationalREDD+ policies on deforestation, emissions, revenuedistribution• Applies spatially explicit data on forest cover, historicalforest cover change (2000-2005), biomass, soil carbon,peatland, potential agricultural yield, remoteness, protectedstatus• Model comprised of ~200,000 3km x 3km cells• Land-use decisions are made locally by ~300 districts• District crediting baselines are “nested” under a nationalreference emission level (REL)reference emission level (REL)• Districts choose whether or not to participate in REDD+based on whether carbon revenue exceeds foregoneagricultural revenue• Participating districts choose pattern of deforestation tomaximize carbon revenue plus agricultural revenue• Agricultural commodity market price feedbacks• No restriction on quantity of reductions which can be sold• Data and economic model are free, transparent, open-source and publicly available atwww.conservation.org/osirisMasa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 23
  24. 24. Definisi konsensus ‘Peatland’ oleh ICCCPeatland is an area with an accumulation of partlydecomposed organic matter, with ash content equal to orless than 35%, peat depth equal to or more than 50cm,and organic carbon content (by weight) of at least 12%www.iccc-network.net24Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim
  25. 25. LULUCF Dynamics in KalimantanUnderlying Assumptions• The interaction between land use/land cover dynamics is poorlyunderstood, particularly the inter-linkages between the variousland uses due to lack of an appropriate information baseline thatrequires the development of a new comprehensive approachlinking the socioeconomic and institutional drivers of thesechanges.• The need for accurate information baselines is also driven byreporting requirements for creating a comprehensive Green HouseGases inventory at the national and subnational levels as a basisfor further development of low emission development scenarios.• The focus has also shifted from traditional landscaper esourcemanagement into a more strategic initiative in order to enabledevelopment of future scenarios and assessments, andnegotiations for emerging needs of the potential carbon market.• Landsat satellite imagery recorded from 1975 to 2012 combiningwith social economic data survey was used to analyze land useand land use change dynamics , including conflict analysisMasa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 25
  26. 26. Deliverables 2 – LULUCF Dynamics in Kalimantan(continued)Masa Depan Tatakelola Perubahan Iklim 26

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