Threats to the development of brazil and how to overcome them


Published on

Published in: Business, Economy & Finance
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Total Views
On Slideshare
From Embeds
Number of Embeds
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Threats to the development of brazil and how to overcome them

  1. 1. 1 THREATS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRAZIL AND HOW TO OVERCOME THEM Fernando Alcoforadoi The Brazil faces today with various threats to their economic, social and environmental foremost among them: 1) the imbalances in the external accounts (balance of trade and balance of payments); 2) the decline in growth GDP; 3) insufficient domestic savings; 4) the uncontrolled rise in inflation rates; 5 ) the explosion of public debt; 6) the risk of economic depression; 7) deindustrialization of the country; 8) raising the Brazil cost Cost; 9) the increase in regional inequalities; 10) worsening of the social and environmental problems of the country; and 11) the crisis of public sector management at all levels (federal , state and municipal) . 1. The threat of imbalances in the external accounts On Brazilian foreign trade is important to note that in recent years, exports, mainly to China, is that they were compensating for the lack of dynamism in the Brazilian market. However, the Brazilian situation in foreign trade began to deteriorate in 2013 due to the decline in exports to China. In 2013, the cumulative trade deficit (the difference between exports and imports) totaled US$ 3.092 billion in July, a record, considering the series started in 1993. This means that the deficit can double by the end of the year. The service account (international travel, transport, equipment rental, insurance, etc.) was negative US$ 22.158 billion, while income (remittances of profits and dividends, interest payments and wages) registered a deficit of US$ 19.770 billion in the six months of the year. In the first half of 2013, the negative balance of current transactions was US$ 43.478 billion as was $ 25.244 billion in the same period of 2012. This is the largest deficit for the period in the time series of the Central Bank, started in 1947. The result in the first half amounted to 3.82 % of what the country produces - Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The situation is extremely worrying. With the decline of international trade as a result of the decline of the economies of the United States and the European Union, the stagnation of Japan and a slowdown in China's economy, the Brazilian trade balance tends to become deficient and the fall already register in economic growth of Brazil tends to make there be a drop in the inflow of foreign capital for investment in the productive sector which will contribute to the occurrence of imbalances in the external accounts of the country Only speculative foreign capital would tend to enter in Brazil if the federal government establish basic interest rates (Selic) high enough to attract them to acquire titles from the national treasury, a fact that will contribute to the worsening of the relation Public Debt / GDP that reaching 59 % in January 2013 thanks to the inefficiency of the public sector and the high basic interest rate (currently 8 % per year) and the risk for investors that later can inhibit the influx of foreign capital in general. The net inflow of current transfers (grants and remittances of dollars that the country does abroad or receives from other countries, without consideration for services or goods) was US$ 1.542 billion in the first half of 2013 . The Central Bank data also show that foreign direct investment, which goes to the productive sector of the economy, reached US$ 30.027 billion in the six months of the year. In the six months of the year, these investments were not enough to completely
  2. 2. 2 cover the deficit in current transactions. The Brazil international reserve currently has US$ 377 billion, which gives tranquility to the Brazilian economy in the short term. However, if the trade deficit and balance of payments persist long the situation may become unsustainable in the medium and long term. For equilibrium in the trade balance, it is necessary to reduce imports by adopting an effective policy of import substitution, as well as raising the competitive power of Brazilian exports in the world market with the adoption of a new exchange rate policy based on fixed exchange rates pegged to the dollar as does China, among other measures. Figure 1, below, shows the trade imbalance in Brazil in recent years. Figure 1 - Brazil 's trade balance Source: Banco Central 2. The threat of the decline in GDP growth To generate economic growth, the federal government has been encouraging the consumption reducing taxes and interest with the intention of making families consume more. Currently, there is a decline in economic growth with a tendency to stagflation which Brazil's GDP will not grow more than 2.5 % in 2013 and now there is a decrease in the levels of employment and average income of the employee for the first time in ten years in nine metropolitan areas of the country. Brazil with this policy is what is called “chicken flight” because there isn´t an increase in investment. Brazil to present a growth consistent with the needs of the country, it will need to grow economically at a rate of 5 % per year which requires elevation of savings and public and private investments from the current 18.7% to 25% in relation to GDP in the evaluation of the Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA) [See article Taxa de investimentos no Brasil é metade da registrada na China (Rate of investment in Brazil is half that recorded in China) posted on website < / not20060928p38796.htm>]. Brazil to grow economically at high rates, it is imperative that the federal government develop a plan centered in development of policy of import substitution and the use of economic potentials existing in Brazil, as well as the adoption of policies that contribute to increase savings public sector and the private sector.
  3. 3. 3 Figure 2, below, shows the growth rates of GDP growth in Brazil from 1994 to 2012. Figure 2 - Variation of the annual GDP of Brazil Source: IBGE 3. The threat of insufficient domestic savings In the economic history of Brazil 's post-war to the present time, the dilemma of how to increase the savings rate for the country to grow faster has always been solved by various governments with the use of foreign savings through the attraction of foreign direct investment and international financing, resulting in chronic deficit in the balance of payments on current account and the consequent increase in the foreign debt. There has never been a part of the Brazilian government or a real concern with the formation of public saving, nor with creating incentives to raise domestic private savings. At the moment, for Brazil to grow fast, it is essential to increase domestic savings, particularly public savings, without which the country continuously be leveraged to the point of compromising their future, as is currently happening with Greece , Spain and Italy in the European Union European. To raise public sector savings, it is essential to expand the fiscal surplus by reducing the cost of government spending, decreasing the Selic rate to reduce the burden of paying of the public debt and renegotiating the lengthening of its payment. In these circumstances, the federal government would have funds for investment, especially in infrastructure. To raise private sector savings, it is important to reduce the interest rate Selic and banking "spread" to make attractive investment in productive activity and not on financial speculation. The increasing in public sector savings in Brazil can reach 43,98 % of the budget of the Brazilian Republic which is the amount that the Treasury spends annually with the payment of interest and repayment of domestic debt if the federal government reduces this expense through renegotiation with creditors. Thus, the conditions would be created
  4. 4. 4 for the public sector can invest and finance from its own resources, and not borrowing as currently occurs. It´s necessary also encourage increased private savings for investment and reduce the cost of the state apparatus to generate surplus and consequent public savings for investment. Figure 3 below shows the evolution of the rates of saving and investment in Brazil from 2000 to 2011. Figure 3 - Annual change in gross savings and investment in Brazil Source: IBGE Figure 4 below shows the evolution of public investment from 1999 to 2012 in % of GDP. The analysis of this figure reveals that public investment to GDP is very low in Brazil. Figure 4 - Evolution of public investment from 1999 to 2012 in% of GDP
  5. 5. 5 Source: 4. The threat of uncontrolled rise in inflation Figure 5 , below, shows the evolution of inflation rates from 1999 to 2011 . Figure 5 - History of inflation in Brazil Source: Banco Central and IBGE Inflation government official, even with all he's been doing makeup to force it down, should exceed 5.8% in 2013 up thus the central target of 4.5 % per year which has been forgotten for a long time. Currently, the causes of inflation in Brazil resulted primarily from the inability of the Brazilian production to cope with demand and rising production costs, especially the elevation of machinery, raw materials and imported inputs resulting from increased dollar against the real. It can be argued that Brazil already lives stagflation which is characterized by low economic growth and high inflation. Stagflation affecting the Brazilian economy gathers two problems simultaneously: recession and inflation. In general, one can say that the recession is when most sectors of the economy declines, a fact that is already happening. Beside this happens the loss of confidence of economic agents which leads to a postponement of decisions, both investment by firms such as the purchase of durable goods by households. With it, Brazil enter a cycle where people stop spending and businesses stop producing. It can be argued that, in Brazil, stagflation already is installed because most economic sectors are stagnant or declining and there is loss of confidence in the economic agents as demonstrated by the loss in value of the shares of Bovespa in 2013 (15 %) .
  6. 6. 6 To combat inflation, it is essential to increase the domestic production of goods and services to meet the internal demand, adopting the policy of import substitution of machinery, raw materials and imported inputs that burden the costs of industrial production in Brazil and adopt the fixed exchange rate to avoid the costs of imported items contributing to the increase in inflation. 5. The threat of explosion of public debt in Brazil Table 1, below, shows the evolution of the Public Debt and its ratio to GDP of Brazil from 1994 to 2012. Table 1 - Domestic debt of Brazil ( 1994-2013 ) Year Amount R$ Billion Percent GDP - % 1994 153* 30 1995 208 31 1996 269 33 1997 308 34 1998 386 42 1999 517 49 2000 563 49 2001 661 53 2002 881 56 2003 913 58 2004 957 51,8 2005 979,7 46,5 2006 1.093 46,3 2007 1.224 43,3 2008 1.250 36,0 2009 1.398 43,0 2010 1.550 42,2 2011 1.783 43,0 2012 2.000 41,1 2013 * 2.200 - (*) Forecast ECONOMY BR in January 2013 The Brazil swelled with pride in 2005 when the media reported the historical fact of the discharge Brazilian debt with the IMF. Ex-president Lula capitalized to the maximum such event. Even realizing the goal of the government election in anticipation of the payment of the debt, the opposition had to shut up before a fact as symbolic and important for the self-esteem of the Brazilian people. Even so, some dissenting voices questioned the Government's effort to expedite the settlement of a debt which charged interest rates of only 4% per year, while, at the same time, the Treasury continued to pay interest in excess of 13% per annum of Domestic Debt. In practice, the government changed a debt with interest at 4% per annum for another interest between 8% and 12.75% at the expense of the national treasury.
  7. 7. 7 Figure 6, below, shows the explosion of public debt in Brazil from 1994 to 2009. Figure 6 - The explosion of Brazil 's domestic debt Source: Banco Central The main factor responsible for the increase in public debt in Brazil has been the Selic interest rate adopted by the federal government, the largest in the entire world economy. Figure 7 below shows the evolution of the Selic rate from 2000 to 2012. Figure 7 - Evolution of the Selic rate from 2000 to 2012 Source: At the current time, there is the tendency of the government to raise the Selic rate to combat escalating inflation also contributing to the increase in public debt. It should be noted that all "securities" sold by the government in the financial market are incorporated into domestic and foreign debt. Since the government FHC these
  8. 8. 8 movements have focused on domestic debt, which continues to grow. The practice adopted by FHC, Lula and Dilma Rousseff government has been characterized by debt refinancing which means renew overdue debts with new deadlines and interest attractive to lenders, of course throwing the responsibility for the next government. The pity is that the federal government will spend in 2013 43.98% of the budget on interest payments and repayments of debt (R$ 900 billion), surpassing the resources allocated to education and health, for example, as shown in Figure 8. Figure 8 - Allocation of federal government spending in the budget of the Republic Source: Citizen Debt Audit ( For the Brazilian government have resources for investment, necessarily have to adopt the policy of lengthening the payment of interest and amortization of debt renegotiating with creditors, ie, with domestic and foreign banks (55%), investment funds (21%), pension funds (16%) and non-financial companies (8%) (Figure 9). Figure 9 - Creditors debt public in Brazil
  9. 9. 9 Source: 6. The threat of economic depression in Brazil The next step to stagflation, depression of the Brazilian economy, should happen if kept current economic policy of the federal government. If there isn´t a change in direction of the Brazilian economy, the recession will deepen with the precipitous drop in demand, a framework uncontrollable mass unemployment, widespread bankruptcy of companies (including industry), low levels of production and investment. In these circumstances, the depression will be installed in Brazil that will face the same problems of the United States, European Union and Japan. To avoid economic depression in Brazil, it is necessary to draw up a development plan strategic and systemic contributing to the elimination of threats economic potential and existing, strengthening existing strengths in the Brazilian economy and the exploitation of existing opportunities and potential. To eliminate existing and potential economic threats, the strategies of the Brazilian government should be directed to avoid: 1 ) the precariousness of power infrastructure that threatens the shortage of liquid fuels and electricity in the country that has not yet occurred due to meager economic growth that has been recording in Brazil; 2) the increase in inflation that is recorded at the time (5.8% in 2013 above the inflation target of 4.5 % per year); 3) de-industrialization of Brazil demonstrated by the fall in share of industry in Brazilian GDP (Gross Domestic Product) who fell in 2011 from 1956 levels; and, 4) the devaluation of the Brazilian currency that was the one that more lost in the world against the US dollar in 2012 and in 2013 shows a decline of 14.3 % ; and, 5 ) the precipitous drop in the trade balance which showed the largest deficit in history from January to July of US$ 3.092 billion as opposed to 2012 whose balance had a surplus of US$ 9.92 billion. The elimination of existing and potential economic threats requires the adoption of the following strategies: 1) to expand energy infrastructure by encouraging public and private investment in the expansion of production capacity for liquid fuel (oil and oil products, ethanol and biodiesel) and generation electricity (hydroelectric, wind farms, solar power plants, cogeneration, etc.) to meet domestic demand; 2) to fight against inflation by encouraging public and private investment in increasing production of goods and services in Brazil in a position to meet the demand and adopt the fixed exchange rate to prevent inflation by importing raw materials, supplies and products; 3) to avoid de-industrialization of Brazil increasing its competitiveness, the adoption of a fixed exchange rate and protection of domestic industries against imported products; 4) to avoid devaluation of Brazilian currency with the adoption of a fixed exchange rate; and, 5) to reduce or to eliminate trade deficits with export incentives, the adoption of policies of import substitution and the establishment of a fixed exchange rate. To enhance existing strengths in the economy of Brazil, the Brazilian government strategies should be aimed at strengthening its sectors of agricultural production, mineral industry, its energy, transport and communications infrastructure and its national poles of growth and development where are located the main economic structures of Brazil. Strengthening the existing economic strengths in Brazil requires the adoption of the following strategies: 1) to encourage investment in increasing productivity and agricultural, mineral and industrial production covering all regions of the country; 2) to encourage investment in strengthening energy, transportation and
  10. 10. 10 communication infrastructure across all regions of the country to meet the needs of Brazil; and, 3) to structure the Axles National of Integration and Development (Map 1) economically integrating together the poles of growth and development. To take advantage of economic opportunities and prospects, strategies of the Brazilian government should be focused on the exploitation of its vast natural resources (water resources, mineral resources, farmland, renewable energy solar and wind power, offshore oil deep water). These opportunities should be identified and evaluated for their viability for use, then prepare investment plans aimed at economic and social development of Brazil. In this sense, the necessary strategies would contemplate the preparation of investment plans covering all regions of the country for exploitation of natural resources in the fields of energy (hydropower, wind farms, solar power plants, biomass and offshore oil deep water), mineral, agricultural and industrial. To be successful in implementing these strategies, it is important that the Brazilian state is structured in network which is a kind of overall organizational structure that operates according to a logic chart circular or star-shaped, in which the center is the lead organization. Around this main organization (federal government) are several other entities (state governments, municipalities and state and public enterprises) that would operate articulated with the first. The operation of this type of organization usually relies on modern computer systems and telecommunications that enable centralized management and control of all processes. Map 1 - Axles national of integration and development Source:
  11. 11. 11 7. The threat of de-industrialization of Brazil The current economic policy of the federal government is contributing to the de- industrialization of Brazil which tends to deepen if nothing is done to reverse it. The share of industry in Brazilian GDP (Gross Domestic Product) fell in 2011 to the levels of 1956, when President Juscelino Kubitschek (JK) gave impetus to the industrialization of the country by launching his Target Plan, which promised to make the Brazil forward "50 years in 5". In 1956 during the JK government, industry accounted for 13.8 % of GDP ( See the article by Reinaldo Azevedo, under the title O PT da desindustrialização - Participação da indústria no PIB recua aos anos 50 (The EN deindustrialization - Participation of industry in GDP eases to 50), available at the website < da-industria-no-pib-recua-aos-anos-50/>). The height of the industry's contribution to the generation of wealth in Brazil occurred in 1985: 27.2 % of GDP. Since then it has fallen. There is therefore a long time that the contribution of Brazilian industry in GDP had reached the level as low as recorded in 2011 when it represented only 14.6 % of GDP. Paulo Skaf , president of Fiesp (Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo) in Brazil has emphasized that we face energy, banking spreads of the largest in the world, valued exchange rate, tax cost huge and massive imports that undermine the Brazilian industry. To Skaf, the decline of industry in GDP is evidence of deindustrialization. Figure 10, below, shows the evolution of the participation of Brazilian industry in the GDP of Brazil from 1947 to 2009. This figure clearly shows the process of de- industrialization that is taking place in Brazil. Figure 10 - Participation of industry in the GDP of Brazil Source: IBGE
  12. 12. 12 One of the problems that are demanding urgent solutions in Brazil concern to the elimination of the precarious transport infrastructure and logistics bottleneck that contribute to the increase in cost that makes the prices of products of the manufacturing industry in Brazil getting 30 % more expensive than those made elsewhere. The pity is that the federal government does not adopt an industrial policy that contributes to the permanent reduction of production costs in Brazil industry against of the Asian countries, especially China, which can only occur in three ways: (1) reduction of Brazil Cost with falling tax burden and improving the logistics infrastructure in Brazil; (2) increased productivity of the industry with the growing of its levels of efficiency and effectiveness and strengthening their supply chains; and (3) selective and permanent relief industry to reduce the tax burden on her incident. These solutions should be complemented by the adoption of measures aimed at : 1 ) to overcome the huge problems of education in Brazil at all levels; 2) the development of knowledge resources by adopting programs to implement R & D centers, procurement of technology and attracting brains from abroad; 3) the proper allocation of infrastructure resources establishing effective programs to eliminate bottlenecks; 4 ) fostering the links between the supply chains of companies and their suppliers to eliminate gaps; and, 5) combating predatory competition of imported products with the restriction or limitation of its entry into the domestic market . 8. The threat of rising of Brazil Cost Brazil Cost is one of the biggest barriers to the development of the country and fundamentally results: 1) the endemic corruption in the Brazilian public sector whose annual cost is around 41.5 and 69.1 billion dollars; 2) the high deficit public (R$ 2 trillion); 3) the high real interest rates (8.5%); 4) the high " spread" banking; 5) the highest tax burden (35 % of GDP) of the world's largest; 6) the high labor costs; 7) the high costs of the pension system; 8) the tax law complex and inefficient; 9) the high cost of electricity; 10) poor infrastructure (blackouts in the electricity sector and saturation of ports, airports, roads and railways); and, 11) the lack of skilled labor. All these problems need to be overcome to eliminate the Brazil Cost. These solutions should be complemented by the adoption of measures aimed at : 1 ) a drastic reduction of the tax burden by lowering the cost of government spending and the burden of public debt with decreasing Selic interest and conducting a thorough reform of the state and public administration in Brazil; 2) the drastic reduction of public debt with the decrease in interest rates Selic; 3) eliminating the logistical bottleneck with incentives to public and private investments in energy, transportation and communications infrastructure; 4) the implementation of networked organizational structure in the Brazilian state to raise levels of efficiency and effectiveness of public administration in Brazil; and, 5) combating corruption with achieving political reform and a reform of the state and public administration through a Constituent Assembly exclusive. 9. The threat of rising regional inequalities in Brazil Regional inequalities in Brazil are very high. The Southeast region accounts for 59 % of Brazil's GDP, while the southern region participates with 16 % , the Northeast to 13 %, the Midwest region of 7 % and 5 % in the North. There is an excessive economic concentration in the Southeast region of the country. To overcome regional inequalities in Brazil requires the governmental policies of fiscal and financial incentives to decentralize the Brazilian economy by promoting investment in all regions of Brazil,
  13. 13. 13 especially in the North and Northeast. But for this to happen, it is indispensable that the state in Brazil to recover its investment capacity not only to invest in the infrastructure of the less developed regions, but also provide incentives for the private sector to feel attracted to invest. Another indispensable political concerns the implementation of a reform of the State and Public Administration in Brazil that contributes to the formation of structures of regional development that would have the key role to integrate the actions of federal, state and municipal governments in promoting economic, social and environmental development. 10. The threat of worsening social and environmental problems of Brazil Brazil is characterized by poor distribution of income shown in the fact that 20% of Brazil's richest be the holder of 67 % of national income and the poorest 20 % own only 2 % of national income. Another feature is the precariousness of public education, health, public transport and housing in the Brazil with high deficits that make up position in last place in the world as a provider of such low quality public services to the population. To complete the grave social situation of Brazil noted the existence of high level of crime in the country that has the highest rates in the world with an annual rate of about 22 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants while the United States and France, considered examples, recorded six murders and 0.7, respectively. Overcoming the current social problems requires the adoption of the following strategies: 1) to strengthen civil society organizations so that they can press the holders of economic power and the government to make concessions of a social nature that will result in improved Brazil income distribution, contemplating also to take part in the design of government policies of national development; 2 ) to invest in improving the infrastructure of education and health and the public transport system and to increase the supply of affordable housing to meet the demands of society; and , 3) to adopt a policy to prevent and combat crime by providing the majority of the population of the minimal means of survival as employment, education, health and housing, as well as restructuring the police and the courts to exercise fight against crime without the disproportionate use of violence. Brazil has also major problems related to the environment such as pollution of air, rivers, lakes, seas and oceans and pollution of soil caused by contamination and incorrect disposal of garbage, burned in woods and forests as a way to expand areas for grazing or agriculture, deforestation and illegal logging of trees for timber trading and disposal of waste, among others. It should be noted that Brazil is the 4th largest polluter on the planet is responsible for 5.4% of global emissions of greenhouse gases. Almost 25 % of national emissions are coming from modern industry and agriculture, and 75 % come from traditional agriculture and logging inefficient or predatory. Figure 11 shows the main responsible for the emission of greenhouse gases in Brazil. The analysis of the figure reveals that 75.4 % result from deforestation and fires, 22 % of fossil fuel combustion, industrial processes 1.6 % and 1 % from other causes. All this requires the adoption of strategies that include measures to prevent and mitigate the various forms of aggression to the environment throughout the national territory. Some recent facts point towards a change for the worse in the fight against global warming in Brazil such as the prospect of oil production in pre-salt layer of the sea in Brazil that can make fossil fuels start to have a greater weight in Brazilian energy matrix. Against the fight against global warming, Petrobras plans to invest in the oil
  14. 14. 14 production in pre-salt layer of the sea in Brazil. On January 27, 2009 the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo published text that Petrobras will invest US $ 111 billion under 2020 in the exploration of pre - salt. Figure 11 - Main responsible for the emission of greenhouse gases in Brazil Source : Larara , Dakir . Global Warming and Climate Change . Geography course ULBRA - Canoas . . 11. The threat of crisis management in the public sector in Brazil at all levels (federal, state and municipal) The crisis of public sector management at all levels (federal, state and municipal) is characterized by inefficiency and ineffectiveness of government organizational structure that contribute to the generation of waste of public resources of all kinds. This situation can only be overcome with the implementation of the reform of the State and Public Administration of Brazil. The implementation of a model of efficient and effective management to the Brazilian state based on the rationalization of work processes will inevitably lead to a reduction in operating costs of the state and, consequently, the tax burden on taxpayers. Without putting into practice this set of measures, the Brazilian government will not acquire the ability to invest in the expansion of the economy and adopt policies for social compensation at the level necessary to mitigate social inequalities in Brazil. To be successful in implementing these strategies, it is important that the Brazilian state is structured in network which is a kind of overall organizational structure that operates according to a logic chart circular or star-shaped, the center of which is the lead organization. Around this main organization (federal government) are several other entities (state governments, municipalities and state and public enterprises) that would articulate with the first. The operation of this type of organization usually relies on modern computer systems and telecommunications that enable centralized management and control of all processes.
  15. 15. 15 The adoption of network structure is imposed in Brazil because the organizational structures of government at all levels are exceeded. It is unacceptable that the structures of federal, state and municipal efforts superimposed, as still happens today in many sectors, depleting the scarce resources available to them. To solve this problem, it would be necessary to make the federal and state governments to assume regulatory functions and overall planning, regional and sectoral bases integrated, while the municipal authorities, regional development agencies and state and the public enterprises the executive function. It should be noted that the State in Brazil is inefficient and ineffective due to the lack of integration of federal, state and municipal in promoting national, regional and local development. Join this fact the existence of inadequate organizational structures in each of the federal, state and local efforts that prevent the integration of its actions at all levels of government. It´s total the lack of integration of the various bodies of the state making the action of the government chaotic as a whole, generating therefore diseconomies of all kinds. Compete, therefore, to municipal governments, the regional development agencies and state and public enterprises a big responsibility to put in place all development plans global, regional, state and local jointly developed by various government bodies after listening parliaments in their federal, state and local, as well as civil society . This model of integrated management of the public sector in Brazil would be in opposition to what prevails today, in which federal, state and municipal governments are autonomous in their decisions and actions and politically responsive to the idea of integration. i Fernando Alcoforado, 73, engenheiro e doutor em Planejamento Territorial e Desenvolvimento Regional pela Universidade de Barcelona, professor universitário e consultor nas áreas de planejamento estratégico, planejamento empresarial, planejamento regional e planejamento de sistemas energéticos, é autor dos livros Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011) e Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), entre outros.