THE CHALLENGES OF UKRAINE
Fernando Alcoforado *
Ukraine faces three major challenges: the first, represented by the fact that there was a
coup that overthrew the legitimate government led by President Viktor Yanukovich; the
second, represented by the economic deterioration that affects the country; and, the
third, concerns the risk of fragmentation of the country.
When the rebels overthrew Yanukovych and all his government considered the situation
as normal forcibly overthrowing an elected government. Over a hundred members of
the Ukrainian parliament, members of the ruling party did not participate in this
decision. So there was the deposition of Viktor Yanukovych in the Ukrainian parliament
with inspiration of the Western powers (the United States and European Union) and was
formed the new government that took office in Kiev.
This was the reason why the Russians decided to intervene in Ukraine. It is clear that
Russia has no right to use your troops in the territory of another State. But the crimes
committed by the Russians against Ukraine of Yanukovich before his deposition should
not be used as an alibi for the leaders of the United States and the European Union have
encouraged the coup in Ukraine.
The state of Ukraine's economy and public finances is catastrophic. Corruption and
mismanagement caused the country to become insolvent and unable to meet their most
basic obligations, including pension payments and salaries. This situation is exacerbated
by the fact that Ukraine relies almost entirely on Russian gas for its energy and is
unable to pay its foreign debt.
The Ukrainian government faces enormous challenges and a state of war with Russia on
the possible disintegration of the country. The threat of a rapid disintegration of the
eastern parts of the country is very real. From a geopolitical standpoint, Russia fears
losing Ukraine that would be the area of western influence why values the geostrategic
position of the country. The Crimea and its naval base is crucial to the plans of Russia
and Vladimir Putin of turning it into global superpower.
Losing Ukraine would mean the end of the claim of Russian President Vladimir Putin to
regain superpower status for Russia and reduce its influence in Eurasia. To keep
Ukraine under its sphere of influence, Russia is challenging the legitimacy of the new
government implanted after deposition of Viktor Yanukovych recognizing him as the
legitimate president of Ukraine. Direct military confrontation cannot be ruled out.
Russia is using the pretext of legitimacy to protect the Russian population and is starting
with the occupation of the Crimea. The regions of Kharkiv, Donetsk and Odessa
probably would follow.
The new coalition government of Ukraine installed after the coup d´etat that deposed
Viktor Yanukovych seeks broad support in the internal and external levels. But this
would require the presence at the helm of the nation of a statesman to balance the
overall needs of the country with the wishes and desires of different interest groups.
However, it seems likely that Ukraine has little chance of resolving its internal and
external problems because it has become a pawn in the middle of powerful interests in
the international geopolitical chess.
From the perspective of the interests of Russia, Putin would like to get hold of the
whole Ukraine. But it is something totally unlikely because in eastern Ukraine the
situations is much more difficult than in the Crimea because many people do not want a
union with Russia, or at least have a much greater autonomy from Kiev. Have other
regions strenuously oppose it.
Therefore, it will be very problematic for Russia to use force to basically bring the
eastern provinces Ukrainian to their sphere of influence. Apparently there are already,
according to the Russians, more than 100,000 refugees from East Ukrainian reaching
Russia. If this number turns into hundreds of thousands, or millions, Putin's calculations
can be modified. But this time both your plan as your preference is not to engage in
Eastern Ukraine but only in the Crimea.
There is no doubt that the United States government helped overthrow the
democratically elected president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, with the help of ultra-
right paramilitary, neo-Nazi gang who raided and burned government offices, killing
soldiers in riot gear, and spread chaos and terror across the country [See Mike Whitney
article: Ucrânia, o plano mais idiota de Obama (Ukraine, the dumbest Obama plan)
posted on the website < http://www.viomundo.com.br/politica/mike-whitney-ucrania-o-
plano - more - fool - of - obama.html>] .
These are the new United States. allies in the big game to establish a beachhead in Asia,
pushing the Russians farther east overthrowing the legitimate government of Ukraine,
ensuring vital corridors for oil and gas pipelines, accessing scarce reserves of oil and
gas natural and working for disassembly of the Russian Federation, according to
geopolitical strategy proposed by Zbigniew Brzezinski in his book the Grand
Chessboard: American Primacy and it's geostrategic Imperatives.
This book of Brzezinski provides the basic framework for the establishment of military,
political and economic hegemony of the United States in the most promising and
prosperous region of the XXI century in Asia. The Russian government is aware of this
divide and conquer strategy of Washington, but downplayed the issue in order to avoid
a confrontation. The coup d´etat supported by the United States and European Union in
Ukraine makes Russia to respond to this provocation that threatens both their safety as
its vital interests in the region. Early reports indicate that Putin has mobilized troops to
the region, according to Reuters, put fighters along its western borders on combat alert.
We are therefore experiencing a situation in which the world's only superpower, the
United States, behaves irrationally around the world, fueling the creation of a failed
state one after another as in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, as fomenting riots Syria and
Venezuela, creating hatred and spreading misery wherever he goes. The United States
has gone off the rails, a completely insane way pushing the world closer to the abyss.
The architecture for global security collapsed, while the basic principles of international
law were completely jettisoned.
Alcoforado, Fernando, engineer and doctor of Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the
University of Barcelona, a university professor and consultant in strategic planning, business planning,
regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo,
1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do
desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,
http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel,
São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era
Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social
Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG,
Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora,
Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global
(Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011) and Os Fatores Condicion