Political upheaval in ukraine and its consequences

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  • 1. POLITICAL UPHEAVAL IN UKRAINE AND ITS CONSEQUENCES Fernando Alcoforado * The occurrence of the political crisis in Ukraine, with the intensification of the protests is to ignite a political instability that marks the region for several years. The former Soviet Union which the Ukrainian territory was turned industrialized by means of a structural integration involving all its republics, with the aim of ensuring greater regional stability. After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the countries of Eastern Europe found themselves very interdependent, a fact that continues today in many ways. Currently, Ukraine is commercially and economically dependent on Russia, especially because this country provide you with natural gas, the country's primary source of energy, and for being the main buyer of numerous raw materials produced by the Ukrainian economy. When the EU proposed to Ukraine sign a treaty of free trade, Russia, by contrast, offered better economic agreement and, according to some versions not confirmed officially, if the Ukrainian government did not accept it threatened to cut off the supply of natural gas and the purchase of Ukrainian products, besides imposing customs restrictions. This episode further sharpened the differences between the two major Ukrainian political groups: the pro-Western and pro-Russian. The Ukrainian government's decision not to sign the treaty of free trade with the European Union was the spark that led to violent demonstrations that are far from over. The main leader and organizer of the protests is Vitali Klitschko who leads the movement called Udar ("punch" in free translation), which has shown a broad front of mobilization. Another force is currently composing the demonstrations is the political party Svoboda (meaning "freedom"), led by Oleh Tyahnybok and has nationalistic and are often accused of having a fascist character. Besides these fronts, there are still left groups and anarchists who seek to gain traction with the demonstrations. This group, minority, not objective to defend the treaty with the European Union, major cause of the demonstrations, but fight for better social conditions and mitigation in poverty and inequality in Ukraine. But without doubt, the most influential opposition front in the international point of view is the Motherland, the second largest party in the country (behind only the ruling front), led by Arseniy Yatsenyuk, a militant extremely close to Yulia Tymoshenko, the former first Minister of the country. Ukraine is a country of semi-presidential regime, ie, the cabinet and the national executive functions are divided between the President (with five-year term) and Prime Minister, and a more prominent influence of parliament. The ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich, is a controversial personality in the country because of its proRussian position which makes an enemy of a powerful and influential opposition "proWestern" position, the same who leads much of the demonstrations in the country. With the strength of the Ukrainian government not to join the cause of the manifestations of signing the agreement on free trade with the European Union, the militants have demanded the resignation of President and Prime Minister of the country, described as the major responsible for the influence Russian in national decisions. Alleging that the protesters were using illegal forms and exaggerated violence during the protests, the parliament passed a series of laws to repress them hard, mainly through the use of police force. The political peak voltage of the country began on January 23, 2014, when five protesters killed in clash with police, in addition to the numerous 1
  • 2. wounded. On the same day, negotiations have been unsuccessful, which afforded the invasion of several government buildings in various regions of the country. Repressive measures were severely criticized by the international community, especially after the death of protesters in January 2014. On 28 January, with the aim of reducing the momentum of the protests, Prime Minister Mykola Arazov asked for his resignation. However, this strategy has not been successful because the opponents continued in protests demanding the resignation of President Yanukovych because his inability to ensure country political stability. He was deposed by parliament and replaced by Oleksander Turchinov as interim president until the elections in May. Moreover, the Ukrainian parliament awaits the location of Yanukovich, who is the subject of an arrest warrant for "mass murder of civilians". Before disappearing, Yanukovych said that there was no revolution in Ukraine, but a coup d'etat. The most likely scenario for the outcome of the political crisis in Ukraine is the division of the country, being built with the Crimea to Russia and the alliance of the European Union and the United States with Ukraine that would pose a real threat to Russian interests in the region. Thus, it would be probably opened a new Cold War with unpredictable consequences for the future of humanity. The political conflict in Ukraine also generated a geopolitical crisis in which the interests of great powers are at stake. It is time for humanity to provide the urgently as possible tools needed to control their destiny and put in place a democratic government in the world capable of preventing the occurrence of wars and ensure the survival of the human species. If everything continues as is nowadays any structure, even the United Nations, which works in practice, to serve the interests of the great powers, especially the United States, will be able to rule the world. This is the worst scenario because no country however powerful it is, or a group of countries cannot solve the global economic, political, social and environmental problems, much less exert governance on the planet Earth. None of them would have been entitled to exercise global power. Marcos Troyjo graduate in political science and economics from the University of São Paulo (USP), a doctor of sociology of international relations at USP and diplomat, published the article Crimeia e a "ilha-mundo" (Crimea and the "world island") in the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo (See website <http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/colunas/marcostroyjo/2014/03/1421858-crimeia-eailha-mundo.shtml>). According Troyo, the political crisis in Ukraine is a "zero sum game - term used in international relations to demonstrate that when a country loses from particular action, another necessarily win. As in basketball, no tie, only winners and losers. The vertigo crisis in Ukraine escapes this rule. The tug of war between Russia and the West is a game where nobody wins. Ukraine loses because it presents the specter of greater dismembering than just the Crimea itself and emerges subcutaneous hatred among western Ukrainians and Russians, abundant raw material for new conflicts ". Troyo adds that "loses the European Union amid fragile economic recovery, is forced to show this in the Eastern countries. NATO loses because in a tray in which the antagonist have nuclear, cannot afford the luxury to contemplate the use of conventional forces, as did in crises in the Balkans in the 1990s. Lose the United Nations, due the veto power of Russia, his privileged stage - the Security Council - why not adopt resolutions to remedy the crisis. This, unlike multilateral diplomacy, invites the 2
  • 3. occasional sewing guilds - the " Balance of Power " - typical of 19th century European theater". Marcos Troyjo says "lose the United States that will reverse the trend decline of its foreign policy and revise up the defense budget. Tensions as the Crimea require costly diplomacy and deterrence, not airplanes (drones) comfortably remotely piloted. Russia and her allies lose. Besides the political isolation if the impasse extends, Russia will experience deterioration as an emerging economy and flirt with the melting of her purse. Lose the nostalgic people of Cold War. The Soviet Union not as an alternative. Russia does not seek reissue of an empire. Sailing just for that key NATO did not walk around it, called "Near Abroad". Moscow has plans for himself, not a worldview". * Alcoforado, Fernando, engineer and doctor of Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011) and Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), among others. 3